Atlas Forum

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections => Topic started by: RogueBeaver on April 11, 2012, 05:53:39 pm



Title: Perry running in 2014?
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 11, 2012, 05:53:39 pm
Wouldn't be surprised if true.

http://www.texasmonthly.com/blogs/burkablog/?p=13287


Title: Re: Perry running in 2014?
Post by: Miles on April 11, 2012, 06:10:49 pm
Well, Democrats should start recruiting soon. He should be somewhat vulnerable due to voter fatigue.


Title: Re: Perry running in 2014?
Post by: Scott on April 12, 2012, 04:47:59 pm
Well, Democrats should start recruiting soon. He should be somewhat vulnerable due to voter fatigue.

Who do the Democrats have that could win at a state level in TX, though?


Title: Re: Perry running in 2014?
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 12, 2012, 04:57:54 pm
No one. TXDP hasn't won a statewide election in nearly 20 years.


Title: Re: Perry running in 2014?
Post by: Scott on April 12, 2012, 04:59:24 pm
Chet Edwards appears to be their best bet, from my knowledge of Texas politics.  But even he would probably lose.


Title: Re: Perry running in 2014?
Post by: Miles on April 12, 2012, 05:26:11 pm
Perry's job approval is 35/57. (http://www.burntorangereport.com/diary/12128/bor-poll-texans-deeply-divided-on-rick-perry-direction-of-texas-issues-facing-state) Seems like he's beatable if he runs again.


Title: Re: Perry running in 2014?
Post by: Beet on April 12, 2012, 05:27:50 pm
Dems need a Mark Warner-style centrist/competent.


Title: Re: Perry running in 2014?
Post by: Paleobrazilian on April 12, 2012, 07:14:33 pm
He could always be primaried.


Title: Re: Perry running in 2014?
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 12, 2012, 07:25:29 pm
By whom? Abbott is reportedly moving up to the LG's post, while the Williamses and Cruz will be otherwise occupied.


Title: Re: Perry running in 2014?
Post by: krazen1211 on April 12, 2012, 07:51:35 pm
Perry's job approval is 35/57. (http://www.burntorangereport.com/diary/12128/bor-poll-texans-deeply-divided-on-rick-perry-direction-of-texas-issues-facing-state) Seems like he's beatable if he runs again.

That's because it was polled by a hack organization. See the following statement:

"On nearly every issue, Democrats and Republicans disagree. However, what's most interesting is how out-of-touch Republicans are from the majority opinion of Texans."


Title: Re: Perry running in 2014?
Post by: hopper on April 12, 2012, 08:19:42 pm
He could always be primaried.
Well Perry got primaried last time by Kay Bailey Hutchison, and Debra Medina I think. Its time for Perry to get out of the governor's mansion in my opinion. He has been there since 2000. Thats just too long. 11 and a half years isn't long enough?

His favorable ratings took a beating after the 2011 Presidential Debates after he dropped out of the race.


Title: Re: Perry running in 2014?
Post by: hopper on April 12, 2012, 08:28:11 pm
By whom? Abbott is reportedly moving up to the LG's post, while the Williamses and Cruz will be otherwise occupied.
Micheal Williams is running for that house seat? Cruz if he loses to Leppert or Dewhurst in the Senate Primary could run for Governor though. That could happen looking at the polls for the Republican Senate Primary(a PPP Poll.)


Title: Re: Perry running in 2014?
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Griff on April 12, 2012, 09:15:02 pm
Wendy Davis. (http://www.senate.state.tx.us/75r/senate/members/dist10/dist10.htm)


Title: Re: Perry running in 2014?
Post by: Reginald on April 13, 2012, 12:41:17 am
Yeah, if Perry wants it, he's got it. No Democratic candidate could beat him, even after his utter disaster of a Presidential campaign. And while there are Republicans who could primary him (Abbott comes to mind), they seemingly have their sights set elsewhere. You can't really blame them; this is the Governorship of Texas we're talking about here.


Title: Re: Perry running in 2014?
Post by: morgieb on April 13, 2012, 03:04:42 am
Well, Democrats should start recruiting soon. He should be somewhat vulnerable due to voter fatigue.

Who do the Democrats have that could win at a state level in TX, though?
Bill White maybe? I know he lost last time but that was in a dud year, and Perry's approvals are pretty poor now.


Title: Re: Perry running in 2014?
Post by: LastVoter on April 13, 2012, 03:22:43 am
I'd expect this to be an easy D pick-up in a presidential year, but midterms year makes it a lot harder.


Title: Re: Perry running in 2014?
Post by: perdedor on April 15, 2012, 07:04:09 pm
If Perry runs he will win without issue; the Texas Democratic Party is forever lacking (to put it gently).

That said, I think he decides against it. He just blew millions of dollars making himself look like an ass on the national stage and I would place a bet that neither the big donors or grassroots would be enthusiastic about Perry '14. Look for Greg Abbott to step up and annihilate whatever one-term congressman the Democrats find to sacrifice. I'm hoping for Chris Bell again; his meetings typically had donuts or pizza depending on the time of day. We even got Subway on election day. Good times.


Title: Re: Perry running in 2014?
Post by: tweed on April 15, 2012, 07:40:33 pm
I'd expect this to be an easy D pick-up in a presidential year, but midterms year makes it a lot harder.

why?  this seems counterintuitive (?)


Title: Re: Perry running in 2014?
Post by: bgwah on April 15, 2012, 08:55:04 pm
If he does serve another term, that would be about 18 years right? I think the current record for longest continuously serving Governor George Clinton at 18 years. It would be kinda cool if Perry broke it.

Non-continuous service might still be a ways off, though. Terry Branstad is already beating him, not to mention numerous other Governors throughout history.


Title: Re: Perry running in 2014?
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 15, 2012, 08:58:39 pm
19 years. He took office on 12/19/99, would leave sometime in January '19.


Title: Re: Perry running in 2014?
Post by: LastVoter on April 16, 2012, 07:10:53 pm
I'd expect this to be an easy D pick-up in a presidential year, but midterms year makes it a lot harder.

why?  this seems counterintuitive (?)
Turn-out issues. As long as the democrat is conservative, he would have no issue beating Perry.


Title: Re: Perry running in 2014?
Post by: bgwah on April 16, 2012, 09:31:59 pm
19 years. He took office on 12/19/99, would leave sometime in January '19.

I don't know where you got that number. He took office in December 2000, after Bush resigned.


Title: Re: Perry running in 2014?
Post by: Indy Texas on April 16, 2012, 10:52:30 pm
Plausible Republican primary challengers:
Greg Abbott (AG)
Dan Branch (State Rep)
David Dewhurst (Lt. Gov - if he loses the Senate primary, which is unlikely)
Tom Leppert (fmr. Dallas mayor)
Debra Medina (again...)
Joe Straus (State House Speaker)

Plausible Democratic candidates:
Chet Edwards (fmr. US Rep)
John Sharp (fmr. Comptroller)
Bill White (fmr. Houston mayor, '10 candidate)

Wild-card ideas:
Robert Gates (fmr. Sec. of State, probably as a Dem)
Kay Bailey Hutchison (again, but this time as a Dem or independent)
Drayton McLane (businessman/former Houston Astros owner, as Rep or independent)
Ron Paul (as Libertarian or independent)


Title: Re: Perry running in 2014?
Post by: Miles on April 26, 2012, 01:35:43 pm
Here's what PPP says:

Only 29% of voters think he should run for Governor again in 2014, while 64% think he should not.

Though, I think in 2010, about 57% thought that he shouldn't run for a third term and he was still easily reelected.


Title: Re: Perry running in 2014?
Post by: BaldEagle1991 on April 26, 2012, 02:23:10 pm
If he runs again no matter what happens, he will lose. I can safely assume a Con D to succeed him. You also got to keep in mind how diverse TX will be from this point on, that is something that has been overlooked in this conversation.


Title: Re: Perry running in 2014?
Post by: LastVoter on April 26, 2012, 04:49:49 pm
If he runs again no matter what happens, he will lose. I can safely assume a Con D to succeed him. You also got to keep in mind how diverse TX will be from this point on, that is something that has been overlooked in this conversation.
I think it being a midterm year makes it a toss-up. If Texas dems can find an old white boring conservative male democrat with legislative experience, they should have a good chance of winning.


Title: Re: Perry running in 2014?
Post by: politicus on April 26, 2012, 06:11:30 pm
Plausible Republican primary challengers:
Greg Abbott (AG)
Dan Branch (State Rep)
David Dewhurst (Lt. Gov - if he loses the Senate primary, which is unlikely)
Tom Leppert (fmr. Dallas mayor)
Debra Medina (again...)
Joe Straus (State House Speaker)

Plausible Democratic candidates:
Chet Edwards (fmr. US Rep)
John Sharp (fmr. Comptroller)
Bill White (fmr. Houston mayor, '10 candidate)

Wild-card ideas:
Robert Gates (fmr. Sec. of State, probably as a Dem)
Kay Bailey Hutchison (again, but this time as a Dem or independent)
Drayton McLane (businessman/former Houston Astros owner, as Rep or independent)
Ron Paul (as Libertarian or independent)
'
Both Gates (D) and KBH as an independent could be really interesting. How would you rate their chances?


Title: Re: Perry running in 2014?
Post by: BaldEagle1991 on April 26, 2012, 06:30:03 pm
If he runs again no matter what happens, he will lose. I can safely assume a Con D to succeed him. You also got to keep in mind how diverse TX will be from this point on, that is something that has been overlooked in this conversation.
I think it being a midterm year makes it a toss-up. If Texas dems can find an old white boring conservative male democrat with legislative experience, they should have a good chance of winning.

Chet Edwards is the only hope I guess under your definition. But I don't know people in suburban Dallas and Houston would like that though, they hate Con D's.