Title: Which Scenario Is Likely?
Post by: Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it. on April 13, 2012, 04:40:47 PM
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Unemployment drops to 7.4,gas is around $2.56,Hiring picks up,Obama rating rises to mid to high 60s.
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Unemployment rises to 9.4 and gas goes up but Obama wins by a smaller victory.
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Everything goes bad Unemployment rises to 12+,Stocks plunge,War with Iran with them threatening to launch nukes everywhere results a romney landslide.
Unemployment drops to 7.4,gas is around $2.56,Hiring picks up,Obama rating rises to mid to high 60s.
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Unemployment rises to 9.4 and gas goes up but Obama wins by a smaller victory.
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Everything goes bad Unemployment rises to 12+,Stocks plunge,War with Iran with them threatening to launch nukes everywhere results a romney landslide.
Title: Re: Which Scenario Is Likely?
Post by: perdedor on April 13, 2012, 04:56:41 PM
All indicators point to scenario 1 being the most likely, though I don't think Obama wins South Carolina.
Title: Re: Which Scenario Is Likely?
Post by: The_Texas_Libertarian on April 13, 2012, 05:16:55 PM
Not 3
Vermont goes Republican? Massachusetts and Rhode Island go Republican? However Maine (with all the electoral votes), Minnesota and one Nebraska elector go Democratic?
If there is a GOP landslide it will not be 3.
Vermont goes Republican? Massachusetts and Rhode Island go Republican? However Maine (with all the electoral votes), Minnesota and one Nebraska elector go Democratic?
If there is a GOP landslide it will not be 3.
Title: Re: Which Scenario Is Likely?
Post by: Grumpier Than Thou on April 13, 2012, 05:18:07 PM
Scenario 2 is the one that's going to happen.
Title: Re: Which Scenario Is Likely?
Post by: TJ in Oregon on April 13, 2012, 05:21:54 PM
1 and 3 are pretty unlikely, so 2 by default. The employment rate isn't going back up to 12 and gas will not be $2.56 a gallon any time in the remote future without something crazy happening.
Title: Re: Which Scenario Is Likely?
Post by: Fargobison on April 13, 2012, 05:22:57 PM
If unemployment went to 9.4 that map would look a lot worse for Obama. Give Romney SC and #1 would probably look ok but I don't see that happening(especially gas prices).
Title: Re: Which Scenario Is Likely?
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on April 13, 2012, 05:31:35 PM
Wow, is number 1 modest.
Title: Re: Which Scenario Is Likely?
Post by: 5280 on April 13, 2012, 05:42:57 PM
Alot of Democrats on the forum are hopeful of their messiah, I don't buy it.
I would say option 2.5
I would say option 2.5
Title: Re: Which Scenario Is Likely?
Post by: Del Tachi on April 13, 2012, 05:45:53 PM
None of these scenarios are "likely".
The most likely, however, is option 3 just because it Option 1 is impossible (Obama winning SC but not MO) and Obama will not win re-election if unemployment jumps to 9.4%.
The most likely, however, is option 3 just because it Option 1 is impossible (Obama winning SC but not MO) and Obama will not win re-election if unemployment jumps to 9.4%.
Title: Re: Which Scenario Is Likely?
Post by: Adam Griffin on April 13, 2012, 05:46:48 PM
I picked Scenario 2, but I think it will be a bit more optimistic than that (Perhaps Scenario 1.5). I also can't see SC going before MO, MT, AZ and GA.
Title: Re: Which Scenario Is Likely?
Post by: hopper on April 13, 2012, 06:36:22 PM
Scenario 2 though you flip Ohio to the Dems and Indiana to the Republicans.
Title: Re: Which Scenario Is Likely?
Post by: Grumpier Than Thou on April 13, 2012, 06:38:41 PM
None of these scenarios are "likely".
The most likely, however, is option 3 just because it Option 1 is impossible (Obama winning SC but not MO) and Obama will not win re-election if unemployment jumps to 9.4%.
The most likely, however, is option 3 just because it Option 1 is impossible (Obama winning SC but not MO) and Obama will not win re-election if unemployment jumps to 9.4%.
You're saying it's more likely that all but apocalyptic conditions will occur, causing Romney to win all but four states and a congressional district in Nebraska than it is for Obama to win re-election with 9.4% unemployment?
>Republican logic
>Seems legit
Title: Re: Which Scenario Is Likely?
Post by: Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas on April 13, 2012, 06:46:21 PM
Option 2 or option 2.5, which basically looks like this.
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Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Colorado could go Romney in a "landslide". Possibly Michigan or New Mexico, but I doubt it.
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Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Colorado could go Romney in a "landslide". Possibly Michigan or New Mexico, but I doubt it.
Title: Re: Which Scenario Is Likely?
Post by: Frodo on April 13, 2012, 06:48:57 PM
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Unemployment drops to 7.4,gas is around $2.56,Hiring picks up,Obama rating rises to mid to high 60s.
Unemployment drops to 7.4,gas is around $2.56,Hiring picks up,Obama rating rises to mid to high 60s.
Overall I agree with this map, but how is President Obama more likely to win South Carolina rather than Georgia in this scenario?
Title: Re: Which Scenario Is Likely?
Post by: Grumpier Than Thou on April 13, 2012, 06:52:52 PM
Option 2 or option 2.5, which basically looks like this.
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Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Colorado could go Romney in a "landslide". Possibly Michigan or New Mexico, but I doubt it.
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Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Colorado could go Romney in a "landslide". Possibly Michigan or New Mexico, but I doubt it.
Uh, no.
Title: Re: Which Scenario Is Likely?
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on April 13, 2012, 09:31:52 PM
Why would Maine not flip before VT, MA, etc?
Title: Re: Which Scenario Is Likely?
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on April 13, 2012, 09:58:55 PM
I'm going with option 2.5 I think Option 2 is the most likely, but I think a small Romney victory is definitely not out of the realm of possibility. It will not be a landslide either way.
Title: Re: Which Scenario Is Likely?
Post by: Miles on April 13, 2012, 10:07:40 PM
Somewhere between 1 and 2.
Title: Re: Which Scenario Is Likely?
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on April 13, 2012, 10:08:28 PM
Obama wins Indiana but loses Ohio? No.
Title: Re: Which Scenario Is Likely?
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on April 13, 2012, 10:22:10 PM
A slight tweaking of 2.
Title: Re: Which Scenario Is Likely?
Post by: LastVoter on April 13, 2012, 10:45:58 PM
Option 2 with Ohio instead of Indiana.
Title: Re: Which Scenario Is Likely?
Post by: Cory on April 14, 2012, 03:59:18 PM
Scenario 2 though you flip Ohio to the Dems and Indiana to the Republicans.
Title: Re: Which Scenario Is Likely?
Post by: LastVoter on April 14, 2012, 04:06:52 PM
Scenario 2 though you flip Ohio to the Dems and Indiana to the Republicans.
Title: Re: Which Scenario Is Likely?
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 14, 2012, 04:08:53 PM
SC in the first map and IN in the second make no sense.
Title: Re: Which Scenario Is Likely?
Post by: rbt48 on April 14, 2012, 04:27:32 PM
I think option 2.5 is the most realistic. By the way, Obama is not going to carry Nebraska's CD-2. The state legislature saw to that in redistricting last year. The way they split up Sarpy County, Obama wouldn't have carried it in 2008 and he is much less popular here than he was 4 years ago.