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Election Archive => 2012 Elections => Topic started by: Tender Branson on April 14, 2012, 10:45:41 am



Title: AP's Swing State map (April 2012)
Post by: Tender Branson on April 14, 2012, 10:45:41 am
(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;7&AK=2;3;7&AZ=2;11;4&AR=2;6;7&CA=1;55;7&CO=3;9;5&CT=1;7;7&DE=1;3;7&DC=1;3;7&FL=3;29;5&GA=2;16;7&HI=1;4;7&ID=2;4;7&IL=1;20;7&IN=2;11;4&IA=3;6;5&KS=2;6;7&KY=2;8;7&LA=2;8;7&MD=1;10;7&MA=1;11;7&MI=1;16;4&MN=1;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;10;4&MT=2;3;7&NV=3;6;5&NH=3;4;5&NJ=1;14;7&NM=3;5;5&NY=1;29;7&NC=3;15;5&ND=2;3;7&OH=3;18;5&OK=2;7;7&OR=1;7;7&PA=1;20;4&RI=1;4;7&SC=2;9;7&SD=2;3;7&TN=2;11;7&TX=2;38;7&UT=2;6;7&VT=1;3;7&VA=3;13;5&WA=1;12;7&WV=2;5;7&WI=1;10;4&WY=2;3;7&ME=1;2;7&ME1=1;1;7&ME2=1;1;7&NE=2;2;7&NE1=2;1;7&NE2=2;1;7&NE3=2;1;7)

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2012/04/14/us/politics/ap-us-road-to-270-glance.html?_r=2&hp

What I would change:

NM, MN, WI, MI -> Safe Obama

PA -> Tossup

GA, SC -> Lean Romney (but we need more polls from there, preferably from Mason-Dixon, PPP and SurveyUSA)


Title: Re: AP's Swing State map (April 2012)
Post by: GM R2D2 on April 14, 2012, 10:50:56 am
So:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;6&AK=2;3;5&AZ=2;11;5&AR=2;6;5&CA=1;55;6&CO=0;9;5&CT=1;7;6&DE=1;3;6&DC=1;3;9&FL=0;29;5&GA=2;16;5&HI=1;4;7&ID=2;4;6&IL=1;20;6&IN=2;11;4&IA=0;6;5&KS=2;6;5&KY=2;8;5&LA=2;8;5&MD=1;10;6&MA=1;11;6&MI=1;16;5&MN=1;10;5&MS=2;6;5&MO=2;10;4&MT=2;3;4&NV=0;6;5&NH=0;4;5&NJ=1;14;5&NM=0;5;5&NY=1;29;6&NC=0;15;4&ND=2;3;5&OH=0;18;5&OK=2;7;6&OR=1;7;5&PA=1;20;5&RI=1;4;6&SC=2;9;5&SD=2;3;5&TN=2;11;5&TX=2;38;5&UT=2;6;6&VT=1;3;6&VA=0;13;5&WA=1;12;5&WV=2;5;5&WI=1;10;5&WY=2;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;6&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;5&NE1=2;1;5&NE2=2;1;4&NE3=2;1;6)

If I had to predict the tossups, it'd look like this:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;6&AK=2;3;5&AZ=2;11;5&AR=2;6;5&CA=1;55;6&CO=1;9;5&CT=1;7;6&DE=1;3;6&DC=1;3;9&FL=2;29;5&GA=2;16;5&HI=1;4;7&ID=2;4;6&IL=1;20;6&IN=2;11;4&IA=1;6;5&KS=2;6;5&KY=2;8;5&LA=2;8;5&MD=1;10;6&MA=1;11;6&MI=1;16;5&MN=1;10;5&MS=2;6;5&MO=2;10;4&MT=2;3;4&NV=2;6;5&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;14;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=1;29;6&NC=2;15;4&ND=2;3;5&OH=2;18;5&OK=2;7;6&OR=1;7;5&PA=1;20;5&RI=1;4;6&SC=2;9;5&SD=2;3;5&TN=2;11;5&TX=2;38;5&UT=2;6;6&VT=1;3;6&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;12;5&WV=2;5;5&WI=1;10;5&WY=2;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;6&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;5&NE1=2;1;5&NE2=2;1;4&NE3=2;1;6)


Title: Re: AP's Swing State map (April 2012)
Post by: opebo on April 14, 2012, 11:03:10 am
This is more realistic:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;6&AK=2;3;6&AZ=2;11;5&AR=2;6;5&CA=1;55;6&CO=1;9;5&CT=1;7;6&DE=1;3;6&DC=1;3;6&FL=3;29;5&GA=2;16;6&HI=1;4;6&ID=2;4;6&IL=1;20;6&IN=2;11;5&IA=1;6;5&KS=2;6;6&KY=2;8;6&LA=2;8;6&MD=1;10;6&MA=1;11;6&MI=1;16;5&MN=1;10;5&MS=2;6;6&MO=2;10;5&MT=2;3;6&NV=1;6;5&NH=3;4;5&NJ=1;14;6&NM=1;5;6&NY=1;29;6&NC=3;15;4&ND=2;3;6&OH=3;18;5&OK=2;7;6&OR=1;7;6&PA=3;20;5&RI=1;4;6&SC=2;9;6&SD=2;3;6&TN=2;11;6&TX=2;38;6&UT=2;6;6&VT=1;3;6&VA=3;13;5&WA=1;12;6&WV=2;5;6&WI=1;10;5&WY=2;3;6&ME=1;2;6&ME1=1;1;6&ME2=1;1;6&NE=2;2;6&NE1=2;1;6&NE2=2;1;5&NE3=2;1;6)

Though obviously its a stretch to call Pennsylvania a tossup, and Obama's consistently ahead in VA, OH, and NH as well.


Title: Re: AP's Swing State map (April 2012)
Post by: Tender Branson on April 14, 2012, 11:08:44 am
This is more realistic:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;6&AK=2;3;6&AZ=2;11;5&AR=2;6;5&CA=1;55;6&CO=1;9;5&CT=1;7;6&DE=1;3;6&DC=1;3;6&FL=3;29;5&GA=2;16;6&HI=1;4;6&ID=2;4;6&IL=1;20;6&IN=2;11;5&IA=1;6;5&KS=2;6;6&KY=2;8;6&LA=2;8;6&MD=1;10;6&MA=1;11;6&MI=1;16;5&MN=1;10;5&MS=2;6;6&MO=2;10;5&MT=2;3;6&NV=1;6;5&NH=3;4;5&NJ=1;14;6&NM=1;5;6&NY=1;29;6&NC=3;15;4&ND=2;3;6&OH=3;18;5&OK=2;7;6&OR=1;7;6&PA=3;20;5&RI=1;4;6&SC=2;9;6&SD=2;3;6&TN=2;11;6&TX=2;38;6&UT=2;6;6&VT=1;3;6&VA=3;13;5&WA=1;12;6&WV=2;5;6&WI=1;10;5&WY=2;3;6&ME=1;2;6&ME1=1;1;6&ME2=1;1;6&NE=2;2;6&NE1=2;1;6&NE2=2;1;5&NE3=2;1;6)

Though obviously its a stretch to call Pennsylvania a tossup, and Obama's consistently ahead in VA, OH, and NH as well.

AR is only lean ?


Title: Re: AP's Swing State map (April 2012)
Post by: Bull Moose Base on April 14, 2012, 11:29:49 am
Junk junk junk! Only map worth looking at would be one based on polling, including only pollsters with good records, starting in 2 months or so...


Title: Re: AP's Swing State map (April 2012)
Post by: Tender Branson on April 14, 2012, 11:39:17 am
Junk junk junk! Only map worth looking at would be one based on polling, including only pollsters with good records, starting in 2 months or so...

The next 4 months are pretty much useless when it comes to polling. I expect it to be similar to the Kerry vs. Bush summer. Polling will become interesting when Mason-Dixon starts polling a lot of states in August/September. Which is also the time when PPP switches to a likely voter model.


Title: Re: AP's Swing State map (April 2012)
Post by: 5280 on April 14, 2012, 11:45:41 am
Junk junk junk! Only map worth looking at would be one based on polling, including only pollsters with good records, starting in 2 months or so...
Some of you guys overreact to a damn poll, chill out bro.


Title: Re: AP's Swing State map (April 2012)
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on April 14, 2012, 11:58:59 am
I think Michigan and Pennsylvania could be in play.

New Mexico is a lost cause though.


Title: Re: AP's Swing State map (April 2012)
Post by: Caripace Clavicle Moundshroud on April 14, 2012, 12:14:07 pm
If the GOP spend any significant amount of cash in PA this year they deserve to lose. We're not going to win. Take those funds and use in more vulnerable territory. If Bush hadn't spend so much cash in PA in 2004, he could have carried NH & WI.


Title: Re: AP's Swing State map (April 2012)
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on April 14, 2012, 12:19:55 pm
Except PA has been swingier than Ohio this year. It sometimes seems like a better bet than Virginia, which is a state Romney will surely pour money into. So why not try for Pennsylvania too? If he wins it, the benefits would be astronomical.


Title: Re: AP's Swing State map (April 2012)
Post by: Caripace Clavicle Moundshroud on April 14, 2012, 12:34:13 pm
Except PA has been swingier than Ohio this year. It sometimes seems like a better bet than Virginia, which is a state Romney will surely pour money into. So why not try for Pennsylvania too? If he wins it, the benefits would be astronomical.

If he wins it, it will be by a razor thin margin, and he could still lose the presidency in that scenario. The state is expensive, and a long shot. I would just rather the $$$ be spent elsewhere.


Title: Re: AP's Swing State map (April 2012)
Post by: Lief 🐋 on April 14, 2012, 12:59:18 pm
LOL at people who still think NM is a toss-up.


Title: Re: AP's Swing State map (April 2012)
Post by: A Strange Reflection on April 14, 2012, 01:10:04 pm
LOL at people who still think NM is a toss-up.

Yeah, definitely. Romney should probably give up on Nevada already.


Title: Re: AP's Swing State map (April 2012)
Post by: IDS Delegate Ben Kenobi on April 14, 2012, 01:11:01 pm
CO, OH, NM, PA, and IA are all Safe Obama.

NC, VA, GA, SC, FL, NH are all tossup.


Title: Re: AP's Swing State map (April 2012)
Post by: Fritz on April 14, 2012, 03:55:17 pm
CO, OH, NM, PA, and IA are all Safe Obama.

NC, VA, GA, SC, FL, NH are all tossup.


So, the election is already won?  Thanks for letting us know.  :)

GA a tossup?


Title: Re: AP's Swing State map (April 2012)
Post by: NVGonzalez on April 14, 2012, 06:23:10 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;7&AK=2;3;7&AZ=2;11;4&AR=2;6;7&CA=1;55;7&CO=3;9;5&CT=1;7;7&DE=1;3;7&DC=1;3;7&FL=3;29;5&GA=2;16;7&HI=1;4;7&ID=2;4;7&IL=1;20;7&IN=2;11;4&IA=3;6;5&KS=2;6;7&KY=2;8;7&LA=2;8;7&MD=1;10;7&MA=1;11;7&MI=1;16;4&MN=1;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;10;4&MT=2;3;7&NV=3;6;5&NH=3;4;5&NJ=1;14;7&NM=3;5;5&NY=1;29;7&NC=3;15;5&ND=2;3;7&OH=3;18;5&OK=2;7;7&OR=1;7;7&PA=1;20;4&RI=1;4;7&SC=2;9;7&SD=2;3;7&TN=2;11;7&TX=2;38;7&UT=2;6;7&VT=1;3;7&VA=3;13;5&WA=1;12;7&WV=2;5;7&WI=1;10;4&WY=2;3;7&ME=1;2;7&ME1=1;1;7&ME2=1;1;7&NE=2;2;7&NE1=2;1;7&NE2=2;1;7&NE3=2;1;7)

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2012/04/14/us/politics/ap-us-road-to-270-glance.html?_r=2&hp

What I would change:

NM, MN, WI, MI -> Safe Obama

PA -> Tossup

GA, SC -> Lean Romney (but we need more polls from there, preferably from Mason-Dixon, PPP and SurveyUSA)

I'd add NV and NH as lean Obama and if another poll confirms it I'd put CO as lean too.


Title: Re: AP's Swing State map (April 2012)
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on April 14, 2012, 06:32:09 pm
Here's what I think it is:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;6&AK=2;3;6&AZ=2;11;3&AR=2;6;6&CA=1;55;6&CO=1;9;3&CT=1;7;6&DE=1;3;6&DC=1;3;6&FL=0;29;4&GA=2;16;3&HI=1;4;6&ID=2;4;6&IL=1;20;6&IN=2;11;3&IA=0;6;3&KS=2;6;6&KY=2;8;6&LA=2;8;6&MD=1;10;6&MA=1;11;6&MI=1;16;3&MN=1;10;6&MS=2;6;6&MO=0;10;4&MT=2;3;3&NV=1;6;3&NH=0;4;5&NJ=1;14;6&NM=1;5;6&NY=1;29;6&NC=0;15;5&ND=2;3;6&OH=0;18;5&OK=2;7;6&OR=1;7;6&PA=0;20;6&RI=1;4;6&SC=2;9;3&SD=2;3;6&TN=2;11;6&TX=2;38;6&UT=2;6;6&VT=1;3;6&VA=0;13;6&WA=1;12;6&WV=2;5;6&WI=1;10;3&WY=2;3;6&ME=1;2;6&ME1=1;1;6&ME2=1;1;6&NE=2;2;6&NE1=2;1;6&NE2=0;1;4&NE3=2;1;6)


:P


Title: Re: AP's Swing State map (April 2012)
Post by: GM R2D2 on April 14, 2012, 06:58:04 pm
MO a tossup???


Title: Re: AP's Swing State map (April 2012)
Post by: Caripace Clavicle Moundshroud on April 14, 2012, 07:12:10 pm
I think if Obama was able to beat Hillary in MO, he'd have a decent shot of beating Romney, but only if he wins by the same or a larger margin.


Title: Re: AP's Swing State map (April 2012)
Post by: Alcon on April 14, 2012, 07:15:43 pm
I think if Obama was able to beat Hillary in MO, he'd have a decent shot of beating Romney, but only if he wins by the same or a larger margin.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/img.php?type=map&year=2008&fips=29&st=MO&off=0&elect=1&evt=P)

Something tells me that Obama's 2008 primary win wasn't on the back of swing voters.


Title: Re: AP's Swing State map (April 2012)
Post by: "'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted" on April 14, 2012, 07:18:25 pm
Current map:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;5&AK=2;3;5&AZ=2;11;5&AR=2;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;3&CT=1;7;5&DE=1;3;5&DC=1;3;5&FL=0;29;5&GA=2;16;5&HI=1;4;5&ID=2;4;5&IL=1;20;5&IN=2;11;3&IA=1;6;3&KS=2;6;5&KY=2;8;5&LA=2;8;5&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;11;5&MI=1;16;5&MN=1;10;5&MS=2;6;5&MO=2;10;3&MT=2;3;5&NV=1;6;3&NH=1;4;3&NJ=1;14;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=1;29;5&NC=0;15;4&ND=2;3;5&OH=1;18;3&OK=2;7;5&OR=1;7;5&PA=1;20;3&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;9;5&SD=2;3;5&TN=2;11;5&TX=2;38;5&UT=2;6;5&VT=1;3;5&VA=1;13;3&WA=1;12;5&WV=2;5;5&WI=1;10;5&WY=2;3;5&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;5&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;5&NE1=2;1;5&NE2=2;1;5&NE3=2;1;5)

Fall map:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;5&AK=2;3;5&AZ=2;11;5&AR=2;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=0;9;3&CT=1;7;5&DE=1;3;5&DC=1;3;5&FL=2;29;3&GA=2;16;5&HI=1;4;5&ID=2;4;5&IL=1;20;5&IN=2;11;5&IA=0;6;3&KS=2;6;5&KY=2;8;5&LA=2;8;5&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;11;5&MI=1;16;3&MN=1;10;5&MS=2;6;5&MO=2;10;5&MT=2;3;5&NV=0;6;3&NH=0;4;3&NJ=1;14;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=1;29;5&NC=2;15;3&ND=2;3;5&OH=0;18;3&OK=2;7;5&OR=1;7;5&PA=1;20;3&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;9;5&SD=2;3;5&TN=2;11;5&TX=2;38;5&UT=2;6;5&VT=1;3;5&VA=0;13;5&WA=1;12;5&WV=2;5;5&WI=1;10;5&WY=2;3;5&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;5&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;5&NE1=2;1;5&NE2=2;1;5&NE3=2;1;5)


Title: Re: AP's Swing State map (April 2012)
Post by: Caripace Clavicle Moundshroud on April 14, 2012, 07:19:03 pm
I think if Obama was able to beat Hillary in MO, he'd have a decent shot of beating Romney, but only if he wins by the same or a larger margin.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/img.php?type=map&year=2008&fips=29&st=MO&off=0&elect=1&evt=P)

Something tells me that Obama's 2008 primary win wasn't on the back of swing voters.

Yes, thank you for having the decency to admit that Obama won the primary because of reverse racism.


Title: Re: AP's Swing State map (April 2012)
Post by: IDS Delegate Ben Kenobi on April 14, 2012, 08:01:14 pm
Darth Nader, that looks about right, but everyone is actually understating Obama's strength.


Title: Re: AP's Swing State map (April 2012)
Post by: nkpatel1279 on April 14, 2012, 10:48:29 pm
Obama-D wins all of the Dukakis states he carried last time including (IA-6,MN-10,and WI-10)=96ev
Obama-D wins all of the Gore/ Kerry states he carried by a double digit margin including (PA-20,NM-5,and MI-16)=253ev
Winning CO-9,NV-6,and NH-4 gives Obama-D 272ev.
Obama-D has a greater than 50-50 chance of winning VA-13,OH-18,and FL-29.
If Obama-D is having a great night on Election Day. He narrowly wins or loses NC-15 and MO-10.
2012 is going to be like 2000. The states Gore narrowly won in 2000 was IA-6,MN-10,NM-5,OR-7,and WI-10. Gore narrowly lost NH-4 which could have given him the 270plus ev.
The states Obama-D will win in 2012 by a very narrow margin is CO-9,IA-6,and NV-6. He wins MI-16,MN-10,NM-5,OR-7,PA-20,and WI-10 by a high single digit margin. (268ev) Obama-D will fight to win NH-4,OH-18,FL-29,and VA-13. Obama-D loses MO-10 and NC-15 by a narrow margin. Obama-D loses AZ-11,GA-16,and IN-11 by a high single digit margin.


Title: Re: AP's Swing State map (April 2012)
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on April 14, 2012, 10:58:27 pm
I think if Obama was able to beat Hillary in MO, he'd have a decent shot of beating Romney, but only if he wins by the same or a larger margin.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/img.php?type=map&year=2008&fips=29&st=MO&off=0&elect=1&evt=P)

Something tells me that Obama's 2008 primary win wasn't on the back of swing voters.

Yes, thank you for having the decency to admit that Obama won the primary because of reverse racism.

'Reverse racism' isn't a thing.

The 'urban vote', however, clearly is.


Title: Re: AP's Swing State map (April 2012)
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on April 14, 2012, 11:46:17 pm
MO a tossup???

Yeah, a couple polls actually showed Obama within striking distance of Romney. I just played it safe, kind of like with PA.


Title: Re: AP's Swing State map (April 2012)
Post by: IDS Delegate Ben Kenobi on April 15, 2012, 01:52:29 am
There's no way he does that poorly in the valley. This feels like bizarro forum. Nobody is pushing Obama hard enough.


Title: Re: AP's Swing State map (April 2012)
Post by: LastVoter on April 15, 2012, 02:53:21 am
There's no way he does that poorly in the valley. This feels like bizarro forum. Nobody is pushing Obama hard enough.
I think most of the forum pushes him about as much as the polls show.


Title: Re: AP's Swing State map (April 2012)
Post by: opebo on April 15, 2012, 02:57:36 am
This is more realistic:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;6&AK=2;3;6&AZ=2;11;5&AR=2;6;5&CA=1;55;6&CO=1;9;5&CT=1;7;6&DE=1;3;6&DC=1;3;6&FL=3;29;5&GA=2;16;6&HI=1;4;6&ID=2;4;6&IL=1;20;6&IN=2;11;5&IA=1;6;5&KS=2;6;6&KY=2;8;6&LA=2;8;6&MD=1;10;6&MA=1;11;6&MI=1;16;5&MN=1;10;5&MS=2;6;6&MO=2;10;5&MT=2;3;6&NV=1;6;5&NH=3;4;5&NJ=1;14;6&NM=1;5;6&NY=1;29;6&NC=3;15;4&ND=2;3;6&OH=3;18;5&OK=2;7;6&OR=1;7;6&PA=3;20;5&RI=1;4;6&SC=2;9;6&SD=2;3;6&TN=2;11;6&TX=2;38;6&UT=2;6;6&VT=1;3;6&VA=3;13;5&WA=1;12;6&WV=2;5;6&WI=1;10;5&WY=2;3;6&ME=1;2;6&ME1=1;1;6&ME2=1;1;6&NE=2;2;6&NE1=2;1;6&NE2=2;1;5&NE3=2;1;6)

Though obviously its a stretch to call Pennsylvania a tossup, and Obama's consistently ahead in VA, OH, and NH as well.

AR is only lean ?

A mistake, map was done in a rush.  After all it was just for conversation.


Title: Re: AP's Swing State map (April 2012)
Post by: Nichlemn on April 15, 2012, 03:43:41 am
It depends if by "swing states" you mean "tipping point states", that is the states that could get either candidate to 270, or "most likely to be close", which depend on the national environment and thus may include states that are not likely to decide the President.