Title: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election? Post by: diarrhea on April 14, 2012, 05:42:32 PM ?
Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election? Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 15, 2012, 05:39:44 AM Nevada, not for who won it but because the margin was far bigger than expected.
Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election? Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on April 15, 2012, 08:50:05 AM The Nebraska 2nd--I don't remember any talk about it. IN and NC were tossups, so not surprising.
Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election? Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on April 15, 2012, 10:38:48 AM I didn't know enough about what were Republican and what were Democratic states back then (I had an idea, but nothing too nuanced), but in retrospect without any real thought, I guess I'd say Indiana.
Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election? Post by: Miles on April 15, 2012, 01:21:33 PM Like Cathcon, I didn't really follow state-level polling in detail then, but I was amazed that Obama got 365 electoral votes. All of my predictions had him getting about 320.
Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election? Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on April 15, 2012, 02:09:26 PM I didn't even know there was a place you could go to look up electoral vote counts and stuff like that. :P My election night story is my history teacher giving each of us a blank US map and telling us to go home that night and fill it in as states were called. The only states I have any memory of are Ohio ("this is important!" I had no idea why), Missouri (Me: Shouldn't it go Republican? They still haven't called it. Uh-oh) and Florida (That's not going Republican either! They still haven't called it! No!). I remember filling in the vast majority of the map but for a few, FL, MO, and a couple others. I wish I could find that map and see how far I'd gotten.
Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election? Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on April 15, 2012, 02:25:38 PM I actually found it in a stack of folders stashed in a part of my room. I guess I should actually throw that stuff away, but this is what I had down before I was sent to bed (in real life colors of course, as that was what I colored it in):
() I guess at the tiem for me it was Florida given that I was really hoping it'd go for McCain. The next couple days or so I looked up the final results online and much to my dismay, it went for Obama. Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election? Post by: politicus on April 15, 2012, 04:44:55 PM Indiana.
Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election? Post by: nclib on April 15, 2012, 06:11:35 PM The Nebraska 2nd--I don't remember any talk about it. IN and NC were tossups, so not surprising. Would agree, but voted Indiana because it's easier to swing 1 CD than a state equal to 9 (or 13 CD's). Was impressed but not as surprised with NC since there are a lot of Northerners moving here and we have a higher black population to begin with. Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election? Post by: Del Tachi on April 15, 2012, 09:30:20 PM I'd say Florida. Just because it was not as close as it should have been. Florida has never been a good state for Obama demographically.
Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election? Post by: Chaddyr23 on April 28, 2012, 12:47:16 AM Indiana simply for the fact at how sharply it swung and the President ended up winning it
Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election? Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 28, 2012, 06:01:23 AM Difference between 538.com's forecasted margin and actual results :
- Grey : within 1% - Between 1% and 2,5% - Between 2,5% and 5% - Between 5% and 7,5% - Between 7,5% and 10% - More than 10% () Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election? Post by: rbt48 on May 01, 2012, 03:30:50 PM Indiana totally surprised me. I throught that McCain would, at worst, carry it by 1 or 2 %.
Since I live in Omaha and knew how close the Democrat came to unseating Lee Terry in 2006, this was not a big surprise. But the margin was slim for Obama. He trailed until the provisional ballots were tallied. Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election? Post by: Thomas_S_Richard106 on January 16, 2013, 07:33:17 PM Indiana and Virginia suprised me. I thought McCain would win Indiana and Virginia.
Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election? Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on May 30, 2013, 04:40:28 PM I remember plenty of analysts saying that Obama had a chance in NE-02, so I wasn't at all surprised when he won there. I actually wasn't surprised by any of the results. North Carolina, Virginia, and Indiana were all considered states where Obama had a chance. Obama led in Virginia for much of the campaign, so that was probably one of the least surprising. I would probably have to say Missouri, since it was really the only swing state that McCain carried, and that was only by the barest of margins, and even that wasn't a big surprise since it was close in the polls.
Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election? Post by: JRP1994 on July 15, 2013, 10:58:51 PM 1) NE-2
2) Indiana 3) Missouri 4) North Carolina Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election? Post by: Flake on October 25, 2013, 03:05:43 PM 1) NE-2 2) Indiana 3) Missouri 4) North Carolina Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election? Post by: TDAS04 on December 28, 2013, 04:54:42 PM 1) NE-2 2) Indiana 3) Missouri 4) North Carolina Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election? Post by: Dancing with Myself on December 28, 2013, 07:05:40 PM NC going to Barry was a big surprise for almost everyone I know including me. I knew a few pro Obama supporters but almost everyone in my county and those nearby were pro McCain for the most part. I remember at 8:30 seeing Obama up by 100,000 with near half in and I just sat and stared at the TV for a while, I couldn't believe it. Compared to 2004 it was a total change across the state and I couldn't believe it.
I didn't get into politics and this forum until the next year, and by 2012 I was ready for anything, but NC and VA going Dem was quite the surprise. I wish I had tht awareness that year because it was a great year for politics. Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election? Post by: crash1984 on December 28, 2013, 08:31:08 PM I was not following politics as much as I do now so then I would say Virginia. Now though I would say that Obama taking Indiana was a bit of a surprise especially when you consider that last year it was called for Romney at 7 p.m.
Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election? Post by: old timey villain on December 28, 2013, 09:09:31 PM For me it was Georgia. I know Obama didn't win it but he came close without even contesting the state. All my life people had been telling me that Georgia was conservative/republican/red/bush country so it was a pleasant surprise to see a Democrat make inroads here. It made me hopeful for future elections in Georgia.
Besides that probably Indiana. Maybe I wasn't following the election as closely as I should have, but I never heard much about Indiana being a swing state. Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election? Post by: Supersonic on December 29, 2013, 08:40:36 AM Indiana definitely. That result came out of nowhere for me. I didn't really understand the splitting of electoral votes in Nebraska at the time so I can't vouch for that.
Title: Re: Biggest surprise in the 2008 presidential election? Post by: MATTROSE94 on February 13, 2014, 03:38:23 PM Probably Indiana, though my final prediction map looked like this (pretty bizzare in retrospect):
() 351 Obama-187 McCain |