Talk Elections

There will by by-elections held tomorrow in two BC ridings. Chilliwack-Hope and Port Moody-Coquitlam. The former is fairly conservative and the latter is more of a battle ground. However, with vote splitting, anything can happen tomorrow.

My analysis: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/provincial-by-elections-in-bc.html

Maps:

Chilliwack-Hope
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Port Moody-Coquitlam
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Can the NDP win both? That's the question. Or can the Conservatives win both? Or the Liberals!? ???

Port Moody-Coquitlam is almost a solid, for sure thing, guaranteed win for the NDP... they somehow won over Joe Transolini former mayor of Port Moody which is a solid candidate if that was the end of it... of it gets better, Joe used to be a big time BCliberal...
joining in the mid-’90s because, he even co-chaired Clark’s successful first provincial campaign in Port Moody in 1995. Hes a centrist no doubt and thats caused some no-one-is-saying-this-outloud ruffles amongst the traditionalists in the BCNDP. But a win is a win so.

Chilliwack-Hope is in the traditionally very conservative Fraser Valley; this one i am not so sure of... i have heard the Conservatives will win and that the NDP can win... first is likely if the Liberals just fall apart and the polls are suggesting they are almost done in the province. BUT if the Liberals hold on to most of their base... the NDPs candidate (who was the candidate in 09 and got 30% back then) could just win this with that 30% repeat... just look at the Hope area, its not like their is no base for the NDP in this riding.

1 BCNDP, 1 BCC would be the best/most likely outcome for the NDP
2 BCNDP would benefit the BCL cause then they can play that split-the-vote-elects-a-dipper card

Trasolini was a Liberal? Nice. I think this shows that the NDP is beginning to attract former Liberals and star candidates.

Here is what the parties are looking at for results:

Liberal expectations are low going into these by-elections, but I have to think that it would be a huge set back if they lost both. Some are suggesting an NDP win in Chilliwack-Kent would be good news for the Liberals, as they would show the dangers of vote splitting. However, a third place finish in either race would be a disaster. A win for the Liberals would be holding on to just one seat.

For the NDP, they have to win at least one of the by-elections to keep their momentum going. Losing both wouldn't be very good for them. The same goes for the Conservatives, they have to win one, or come in 2nd in both (ahead of the Liberals) to show they are a credible right wing alternative to the Liberals. There are certainly high stakes in these two by-elections for all three parties.

Hopefully the Tories do well.

You appear to have the city of Chilliwack itself labelled as "Tzeachten" on your inset. Tzeachten, which I had never heard of until now, is just a small First Nation outside the city, and certainly not all those polls.

That's just part of Chilliwack. The inset was labelled as Tzeachten by Elections BC, so I assumed that's what the region was called: http://www3.elections.bc.ca/docs/rpt/2009GE/CHH.pdf

Well, it's obvious from their map than Tzeachten is only precincts 59, 60 and 61.
Also, it's quite balanced politically, as a reserve. Most are landslides for a party, in Canada.

Meh, labelling mistake, honest enough... but what i find odd is that the reserve voted more for the Liberals and what i had figured was that BC natives tended to vote more for the NDP? guess you can't lump.

So over "you-know-where" hes saying Chilliwack-Hope (hatman, i think it used to be called Chilliwack-Kent) says the NDP will win it. And i've been reading some articules in the Province and Sun (Van based both of them) and its looking like an NDP-Con fight. I'm no sold that Chilliwack-Hope is going NDP... the history of this being a Socred area then Liberal, generally favouring the "free-enterprise" flavour of the moment leave very little room for the NDP to grow more than 30%-35% and thats a at general election. Will the Liberal vote even show up? if it does will they stick with Clark or go over to BCC? a couple other bloggers are saying its looking like a BCC win. If the BCCs win, there might be a few more BCL MLAs who are looking to bolt over (thats the rumours ive been reading).
 
http://bciconcoclast.blogspot.ca/ - did a good review of the two by-elections

Look at what the inset is labelled as.


Hmm, well it might go Conservative because it's a by-election, and people like to use it as a protest vote, but as I've said, it's one of the few ridings that voted No in the by-election, meaning they have some faith in the government.

Good Point, i think a few others in the lower mainland like Abbotsford... mostly the wealthier south of fraser areas voted No... and those non-canucks, this "no" vote were talking about was the HST referendum last year that the gov't lost, it was probably one of the major indicators that this gov't was in some serious trouble.
So 25 ridings supported the HST, all of them BCL held ridings... i wonder if those will be among the ridings that the Liberals will still hold next time around? again, linking to your site Earl...

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2011/08/referendum-to-abolish-hst-fails-in-bc.html

Hmmm seems about right, most of the ridings are/have been won by the free marketing party. Except the 4 from/around Vancouver (Point Grey, False Creek, Fraserview, NVLonsdale) i see these are NDP pickups.

ANYWHO... the liberals are so unpopular i just don't see them winning CH, those who can't vote BCC or BCNDP i think just might stay home.

You're right about the labelling; weird.

According to the census the reserve is only about a quarter aboriginal by population, so you have to be careful about assuming who the Natives are voting for.

I noticed the reserve voting Liberal, and I assumed it was because of non natives.

BTW polls close at 8pm (11 Eastern).

Polls now closed.

4/132 polls in from Port Moody-Coquitlam

NDP: 131
Liberal: 32
Cons: 29 

2/126 polls in from Chilliwack-Kent

NDP: 62
Cons: 37
Lib: 35
Lbtn: 1 

NDP is ahead in both, the Conservatives are in third in both.

Chilliwack-Hope    Lewis Clarke Dahlby    Libertarian    2    0.43%
     John Martin    BC Conservative Party    118    25.32%
Gwen O'Mahony    BC NDP    212    45.49%
Laurie Throness    BC Liberal Party    134    28.76%
7 of 126 ballot boxes reported

Port Moody-Coquitlam    Christine N. Clarke    BC Conservative Party    57    12.75%
     Dennis Marsden    BC Liberal Party    102    22.82%
Joe Trasolini    BC NDP    288    64.43%
9 of 132 ballot boxes reported

From tweets it appears that the NDP is expected to win Port Moody-Coquitlam. Those are some pretty good numbers, and there certainly aren't that many polls in that riding that usually go that overwhelmingly NDP

I've seen enough. I declare the NDP elected in Port Moody-Coquitlam.

Where is the updated data?

Looks like the NDP will win Chilliwack-Kent too. Due to vote splitting, their lead there is larger:

Chilliwack-Hope    Lewis Clarke Dahlby    Libertarian    31    1.19%
     John Martin    BC Conservative Party    668    25.58%
Gwen O'Mahony    BC NDP    1,190    45.58%
Laurie Throness    BC Liberal Party    722    27.65%
33 of 126 ballot boxes reported

Port Moody-Coquitlam    Christine N. Clarke    BC Conservative Party    484    15.26%
     Dennis Marsden    BC Liberal Party    1,038    32.73%
Joe Trasolini    BC NDP    1,649    52.00%
47 of 132 ballot boxes reported

Chilliwack-Hope (http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/BY-CHH-2012-04-19_Party.html)

Port Moody-Coquitlam (http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/BY-POM-2012-04-19_Party.html)

Oh geez, I thought he just wanted me to post the results. Silly me. :/

Will the Tories finish 2nd in Chilliwack-Kent? That's the real  race.

Indeed - that's the one I'm hoping for... I especially don't want a close NDP vs Liberal result there... that would be horrible!

Except, that's what I predicted. It would be horrible for the NDP though, as the Liberals will now have an argument against voting Conservative and the right won't fracture like the NDP needs to form power.

As it stands the NDP have 42%, the Liberals 31% and Tories 26%.

Yea sorry for not being clear. So I am guessing that means Dippers will be in control of BC come next election?

Not necessarily. They need a divided right, and people will see the third place finish for the Conservatives and think "maybe I shouldn't waste my vote on them".

But, as I kept saying Chilliwack-Hope is more friendly to the BC Liberals than most ridings, LOOK AT THE HST VOTE.

Is BC gerrymandered favorably liberals right now, meaning that Dippers would need to get 50% or even more to win? But even hypothetically if the right is not divided how does NDP win Nationally if they can't even win BC?

It's not that. There's just a slight majority of the BC population that will never vote NDP. The NDP can't get more than 50% of the vote, meaning they can't win in a 2 horse race. However, if the general election were held tonight, well...you'd be looking at an NDP landslide.

Why? It seems to me that Liberal's have pissed off every swing able group, and most voters forgot the ferry fiasco.

All the polls in from Port Moody-Coquitlam
Joe Trasolini    BC NDP    6,070    54.36% (+14.56)
Dennis Marsden    BC Liberal Party    3,377    30.24% (-21.91)
Christine N. Clarke    BC Conservative Party    1,720    15.40% (+15.40)
 

That's BC for you. The entire political history of the province has been about parties coming together to keep the NDP from power.

Well isn't that National history too. CCF should have rightfully won the election post ww2(as it happened in other anglophone countries where labor movements won). It seems to me that Canadian voters will finally put NDP in power as aversion to right-wingers(rather than approval of NDP policies), and Muclair's moderate hero statements help too.

All the polls in now from Chilliwack-Hope

Gwen O'Mahony    BC NDP    5,772    41.19% (+7.76)
Laurie Throness    BC Liberal Party    4,399    31.39% (-21.89)
John Martin    BC Conservative Party    3,548    25.32% (+18.22)
Lewis Clarke Dahlby    Libertarian    294    2.10% (+2.10)

You know something big is going on when the NDP is winning in Chilliwack.

Then again, anything which incorporates anything from Hope up into the interior is more inherently "NDP-friendly" that what is commonly assumed to be Chilliwackian...

Well slap me stupid, i'm not so much shocked that the NDP won Chilliwack-Hope, i'm more so impressed that the voters who are traditionally conservative voted NDP by more that i had anticipated (35% was my high mark) rather then staying home. Vote splitting did lead to the NDP win in this riding, but common thats pretty much how the rest of the country votes and how we end up with tories winning in Ontario, so that knife cuts both ways. Its the system we have in place FPTP that creates these... anywho, this is BC and party loyalty is always second to defeating the NDP. I'd love to see the poll-by-poll results, where the NDP won in both Port Moody-Coquitlam and Chilliwack-Hope

This could be that demographics are slowly changing out this way in the Fraser; South of it has always been wealthier and more right wing, while North of it has been more middle class and more moderate-left. the farther out from Vancouver the cheaper the housing etc so we could see more and more of an outflux out to these communities of NDP-leaning voters into some traditional right-wing areas.

BCL are going to love this... but i still think they are dead in the water; they might be able to hold on to more ridings in the lowermainland but some of the much more conservative interior ridings might just go conservative. its the brand now, the NDP is not the old NDP of before teh 90s where they could play the extreme commies are coming card.

I wonder if the NDP would've won the riding without the town of Hope. That would be pretty huge.

That why i want to see them poll maps! to see where the victories where and where the Liberals/Cons won/perform best.

The NDP will be the next government of BC, but the BC Libs won't drop out of existence so quickly. Maybe.

I would say it was a great night for the NDP.  Not only did the win the normally BC Liberal friendly riding of Port Moody-Coquitlam, but won with over 50%.  Also while there win in Chilliwack-Hope was partly due to vote splitting on the right, they still got over 40% which is quite unusual for this riding.  After all even in 1991 and 1996, this did not go NDP when you had the same issue. 

For the BC Liberals a bad night, but the fact they came in second in both ridings including Chilliwack-Hope, at least allows them to make the claim that for voters who want a pro-free enterprise government, they are the party.

For the BC Conservatives, they did poorly as expected in Port Moody-Coquitlam (I should note this riding did go Conservative federally though) and the fact they came in third in Chilliwack-Hope must certainly be a disappointment.  The reality is they are simply too right wing for BC.  You can be centre-right like the BC Liberals or federal Conservatives and win in BC, but not hard right.  It might work in Alberta, although Danielle Smith is a much more telegenic leader than John Cummins so even if they share a similiar political philosophy, I think Smith is far more electable, never mind Alberta is a more conservative province to begin with. 

I hate that term. The NDP is still pro-free enterprise. The correct term is "right wing" to describe the Liberals+Conservatives.


Again, Chilliwack-Hope isn't the best riding for the BC Conservatives. How many times do I have to cite the HST referendum?

Maybe pro free market is better.  I am not saying the NDP is anti-business, but they do tend to favour greater government intervention in the economy as supposed to less and they generally are against privatization and favour nationalization of some key sectors, although certainly not the whole economy.  By contrast the other two are pretty much against nationalization in all cases and favour privatization of some crown corporations. I agree Chilliwack-Hope is not the strongest Conservative riding, but I would definitely put it in the top 20 if not the top 10.  Maybe not the top 5, i.e. the two Abbotsford ridings, Langley ridings, other Chilliwack riding, Central Okanagan Valley and Peace River Country, I would rank as more favourable to them, but thats about it.  If you look at the Social Credit in 1991 and Reform Party in 1996, that is probably the best indicator where they should be strongest.  

Peace River is the best region for the Conservatives right now, I think. If an election were held right now, I would posit they would only win the 2 ridings there and nothing else.

Sort of like BC Reform in 1996, in fact.

I would agree.  Basically the 2 seats that went BC Reform Party in the worse case scenario to the 7 seats that went Social credit in 1991 in the best case scenario for the BC Conservatives.  I should note Chilliwack-Hope did not go BC Reform in 1996 and I don't think it went Social Credit in 1991 either.

Whenabouts (if ever) will such data be released, and where?

Very variable depending of province and on the election website. In this case, BC Elections.

But doesn't that thread redundant with the Canadian by-elections one?

The information will appear on this page when it's ready: http://www.elections.bc.ca/index.php/resource-centre/reports/

BTW, did anyone see the poll that had the NDP at 50% in BC? Also, the BC Liberals are considering a name change.