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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Congressional Elections => Topic started by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 21, 2012, 10:31:10 am



Title: JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 21, 2012, 10:31:10 am
Now that redistricting is pretty much over, it's time to make a misguided stab at predicting the House results. Here are my 2008 (http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=79481.0) and 2010 (http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=107844.0) attempts for comparison.

Note: an asterisk (*) denotes an open seat; a caret (^) denotes an incumbent seeking re-election in a new district. Since their numbering systems changed, California, Florida, and New York districts are considered the incumbent's current district if they're substantially the same (I used DKE's breakdowns as a guide). A few seats (like CA-21 and CA-47) are hard to determine, so I decided to label them as essentially held by one party.



Dem-Held Seats

Likely Republican Pickup

*AR-04 (Mike Ross)
*NC-11 (Heath Shuler)
*NC-13 (Brad Miller)
*OK-02 (Dan Boren)
*TX-25 (Lloyd Doggett)

Lean Republican Pickup

GA-12 (John Barrow)
NC-08 (Larry Kissell)
NY-27 (Kathy Hochul)

Tossup

*CA-21 (open, essentially Democratic)
*IN-02 (Joe Donnelly)
IA-03 (Leonard Boswell)
NY-01 (Tim Bishop)
NC-07 (Mike McIntyre)
PA-12 (Jason Altmire/Mark Critz)
RI-01 (David Cicilline)
^UT-04 (Jim Matheson)

Lean Democratic

*CA-47 (open, essentially Democratic)
*CT-05 (Chris Murphy)
*IL-12 (Jerry Costello)
MA-06 (John Tierney)
NY-21 (Bill Owens)
*WA-01 (Jay Inslee)

Likely Democratic

CA-09 (Jerry McNerney)
KY-06 (Ben Chandler)
*NM-01 (Martin Heinrich)

Watch List

CA-03 (John Garamendi)
CA-24 (Lois Capps)
CO-07 (Ed Perlmutter)
CT-04 (Jim Himes)
OR-04 (Pete DeFazio)
WV-03 (Nick Rahall)



Rep-Held Seats

Likely Democratic Pickup

Lean Democratic Pickup

*CA-41 (open, essentially Republican)
*FL-22 (Allen West)
IL-08 (Joe Walsh)
^IL-11 (Judy Biggert)
IL-17 (Bobby Schilling)
MD-06 (Roscoe Bartlett)
NY-24 (Ann Buerkle)

Tossup

*AZ-01 (Paul Gosar)
CA-07 (Dan Lungren)
*CA-26 (Elton Gallegly)
*CA-31 (Jerry Lewis retiring, Gary Miller running here)
CA-52 (Brian Bilbray)
^FL-18 (Allen West)
^IA-04 (Steve King)
IL-10 (Bob Dold)
MI-01 (Dan Benishek)
MN-08 (Chip Cravaack)
NH-02 (Charlie Bass)

Lean Republican

CO-03 (Scott Tipton)
CO-06 (Mike Coffman)
IN-08 (Larry Bucshon)
NH-01 (Frank Guinta)
NY-11 (Michael Grimm)
NY-18 (Nan Hayworth)
NY-19 (Chris Gibson)
OH-06 (Bill Johnson)
OH-16 (Jim Renacci)
TX-23 (Quico Canseco)
WI-07 (Sean Duffy)

Likely Republican

AR-01 (Rick Crawford)
FL-10 (Daniel Webster)
*IL-13 (Tim Johnson)
NV-03 (Joe Heck)
*ND-AL (Rick Berg)
PA-08 (Mike Fitzpatrick)
VA-02 (Scott Rigell)

Watch List

FL-02 (Steve Southerland)
FL-13 (Bill Young)
FL-16 (Vern Buchanan)
FL-26 (David Rivera)
MN-06 (Michele Bachmann)
*MT-AL (Denny Rehberg)
NJ-03 (Jon Runyon)
PA-06 (Jim Gerlach)
WA-03 (Jaime Herrera Beutler)
WI-08 (Reid Ribble)



New Seats

Republican: FL-17, GA-14, SC-07, TX-36, UT-02
Tossup: AZ-09, FL-09, NV-04
Democratic: TX-33, TX-34, TX-35, WA-10



Lost Seats

Republican: IL-16, LA-07, NY-09, OH-07
Tossup: IA-03/04
Democratic: MO-03, OH-10, MA-10, MI-09, NJ-09, NY-22, PA-04


Title: Re: JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition
Post by: greenforest32 on April 21, 2012, 11:08:00 am
New Seats
Democratic: TX-33, TX-34, TX-35, WA-10

I really wonder what the Texas house delegation will look like after the next round of redistricting, especially if there is a court drawn map.

Also any reason to watch OR-4? Last I heard it was going to be Defazio vs Robinson again.


Title: Re: JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition
Post by: #IAintAfraidOfNoGoats on April 21, 2012, 04:03:00 pm
The Joe Donnelly seat should be in the likely Republican catagory.


Title: Re: JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 21, 2012, 04:33:19 pm
New Seats
Democratic: TX-33, TX-34, TX-35, WA-10

I really wonder what the Texas house delegation will look like after the next round of redistricting, especially if there is a court drawn map.

Also any reason to watch OR-4? Last I heard it was going to be Defazio vs Robinson again.

Probably not, I just put it on the list since DeFazio had an unexpectedly-close race in 2010.


Title: Re: JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition
Post by: People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee on April 21, 2012, 05:56:37 pm
Any reason why Biggert is in Lean Dem? Any polling from that district yet?


Title: Re: JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 21, 2012, 07:02:55 pm
Any reason why Biggert is in Lean Dem? Any polling from that district yet?

Strong Dem nominee, most of the district is unfamiliar to her, and the parts that are familiar to her won't vote for her.


Title: Re: JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition
Post by: Sam Spade on April 22, 2012, 09:47:52 am
This really reminds me that I need to start formulating my list soon.  A very quick eyeball indicates some disagreements based on my knowledge of the new maps, but I know you tend to weight variables differently than I do.  One of the big ones, I suspect, is that I tend to weight fundraising less in a Presidential year, especially in swing states.


Title: Re: JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on April 22, 2012, 11:09:25 am
I'm curious why most people think Cravaack is a tossup, since the district didn't change much, it hasn't voted for any other Republicans since 1994 at least (and I don't mean for House, I mean for any office), Mitt Romney is an even worse candidate for it than McCain, and he hasn't done anything to endear himself to the area more. Unless they think the rather competitive DFL primary might cause some trouble.


Title: Re: JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 22, 2012, 02:13:34 pm
This really reminds me that I need to start formulating my list soon.  A very quick eyeball indicates some disagreements based on my knowledge of the new maps, but I know you tend to weight variables differently than I do.  One of the big ones, I suspect, is that I tend to weight fundraising less in a Presidential year, especially in swing states.

My biggest problem, I think, is that I tend to be pretty conservative in my ratings, so I miss seats going under. And yeah, the new maps (particularly the California renumbering) are not making my predictions any easier.

I'm curious why most people think Cravaack is a tossup, since the district didn't change much, it hasn't voted for any other Republicans since 1994 at least (and I don't mean for House, I mean for any office), Mitt Romney is an even worse candidate for it than McCain, and he hasn't done anything to endear himself to the area more. Unless they think the rather competitive DFL primary might cause some trouble.

The DFL hasn't really come up with a great candidate; their best one seems to be Tarryl Clark, who had to move into the district and probably won't get the nomination because the Iron Range is so provincial. I think it's more likely than not Cravaack will lose, just because he's the wrong fit for the district, but I have learned never to underestimate the DFL's penchant for picking the worst possible candidate in their conventions.


Title: Re: JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition
Post by: Sam Spade on April 22, 2012, 03:08:00 pm
This really reminds me that I need to start formulating my list soon.  A very quick eyeball indicates some disagreements based on my knowledge of the new maps, but I know you tend to weight variables differently than I do.  One of the big ones, I suspect, is that I tend to weight fundraising less in a Presidential year, especially in swing states.

My biggest problem, I think, is that I tend to be pretty conservative in my ratings, so I miss seats going under. And yeah, the new maps (particularly the California renumbering) are not making my predictions any easier.

Nah, you just have a slight Dem bias, as I have a slight Rep bias, but that is to be expected, and it is not so large as to skew things (we all have a bias, no matter how perfect we think we are).


Title: Re: JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition
Post by: TeePee4Prez on April 24, 2012, 09:29:50 pm
Not agreeing:

PA-08: Fitzpatrick is a Tossup.  Pat Murphy should have re-challenged him.  Tossup/Tilt D if he did.  Still a D+PVI.  Old district with Murphy, Fitzpatrick would likely be gone!

PA-07:  Should at least be Likely Rep if not on Watch List.  I'd call Likely R.

PA-06/15/16: Ditto PA-07.  Should be on Watch List.


Title: Re: JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition
Post by: Torie on April 29, 2012, 12:08:02 pm
I'm curious why most people think Cravaack is a tossup, since the district didn't change much, it hasn't voted for any other Republicans since 1994 at least (and I don't mean for House, I mean for any office), Mitt Romney is an even worse candidate for it than McCain, and he hasn't done anything to endear himself to the area more. Unless they think the rather competitive DFL primary might cause some trouble.

Because the CD has only a .38% Dem PVI from a 2008 baseline, and Cravaack is the incumbent now. A reasonably competent incumbent gets about a 3% tailwind on average. So toss-up seems the right call.


Title: Re: JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on April 29, 2012, 12:32:53 pm
That's not taking into account the polarization of the district, or that Cravaack has not exactly behaved as a "reasonably competent" incumbent.


Title: Re: JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition
Post by: Mr.Phips on April 29, 2012, 02:56:16 pm
I'm curious why most people think Cravaack is a tossup, since the district didn't change much, it hasn't voted for any other Republicans since 1994 at least (and I don't mean for House, I mean for any office), Mitt Romney is an even worse candidate for it than McCain, and he hasn't done anything to endear himself to the area more. Unless they think the rather competitive DFL primary might cause some trouble.

Because the CD has only a .38% Dem PVI from a 2008 baseline, and Cravaack is the incumbent now. A reasonably competent incumbent gets about a 3% tailwind on average. So toss-up seems the right call.

I dont think the incumbency advantage means much these days.  Look at 2010 when many strong incumbents went down. 


Title: Re: JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition
Post by: Brittain33 on April 29, 2012, 07:06:18 pm
Also, Cravaack is from the complete wrong end of the district and declined to open an office in Duluth until late in the game.


Title: Re: JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on April 29, 2012, 07:25:33 pm
Also, Cravaack is from the complete wrong end of the district and declined to open an office in Duluth until late in the game.

That's primarily what I was referring to in regards to him not being a "reasonably competent" incumbent, in addition to him voting the party line agenda. It's tough to imagine many Obama/Cravaack voters unless they're just people really pissed at the DFL candidate.


Title: Re: JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition
Post by: Torie on April 29, 2012, 09:24:51 pm
I'm curious why most people think Cravaack is a tossup, since the district didn't change much, it hasn't voted for any other Republicans since 1994 at least (and I don't mean for House, I mean for any office), Mitt Romney is an even worse candidate for it than McCain, and he hasn't done anything to endear himself to the area more. Unless they think the rather competitive DFL primary might cause some trouble.

Because the CD has only a .38% Dem PVI from a 2008 baseline, and Cravaack is the incumbent now. A reasonably competent incumbent gets about a 3% tailwind on average. So toss-up seems the right call.

I dont think the incumbency advantage means much these days.  Look at 2010 when many strong incumbents went down. 

Incumbency still helped the Dems. It was just a wave election.


Title: Re: JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition
Post by: Torie on April 29, 2012, 09:28:49 pm
Also, Cravaack is from the complete wrong end of the district and declined to open an office in Duluth until late in the game.

That's primarily what I was referring to in regards to him not being a "reasonably competent" incumbent, in addition to him voting the party line agenda. It's tough to imagine many Obama/Cravaack voters unless they're just people really pissed at the DFL candidate.

Well I suppose if folks in Duluth think Cravaack is ignoring them that cannot help. My sense is that the CD is trending Pub. Most Congresscritters vote the party line more or less these days, in this hyper-polarized environment, and given the issues in play. Is he reasonably articulate and can explain issues, or is he a beta brain?

Anyway, as Sam would say, we shall see. I still think absent more info that tossup is the right call. If the guy had a lot of talent, he would probably have the CD in lockdown, if the General is pretty evenly split between the parties, as I expect.


Title: Re: JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on April 30, 2012, 12:39:16 pm
I suppose the big question is can he get almost 40% in St. Louis County again when Romney might be struggling to break 30%.


Title: Re: JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on May 01, 2012, 11:24:17 pm
Something else to think of, the Duluth media market goes into Wisconsin, so they probably got a lot of coverage of Scott Walker's union battles. That's not exactly going to make most people in the area willing to vote for any Republican, nor is the MN GOP's failed attempt to push a right to work vote.


Title: Re: JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition
Post by: Miles on May 02, 2012, 01:00:35 am
Hey Johnny, how would you rate TX-14?


Title: Re: JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 02, 2012, 06:57:19 am
Hey Johnny, how would you rate TX-14?

Safe Republican. TX-23 is the only competitive seat in the state.


Title: Re: JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition
Post by: Miles on May 02, 2012, 11:45:31 am
Hey Johnny, how would you rate TX-14?

Safe Republican. TX-23 is the only competitive seat in the state.

Even with Lampson?


Title: Re: JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 02, 2012, 01:11:52 pm
Not agreeing:

PA-08: Fitzpatrick is a Tossup.  


No. His opponent had an impressive fundraising quarter but she isn't top tier. How can you say this isn't at least Lean Fitz/GOP?


Title: Re: JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 02, 2012, 04:25:21 pm
Hey Johnny, how would you rate TX-14?

Safe Republican. TX-23 is the only competitive seat in the state.

Even with Lampson?

Lampson won under extremely favorable circumstances that won't happen again.


Title: Re: JLT's House Predication Thread, 2012: Redistricting Apocalypse Edition
Post by: Torie on May 02, 2012, 07:04:26 pm
Not agreeing:

PA-08: Fitzpatrick is a Tossup.  


No. His opponent had an impression fundraising quarter but she isn't top tier. How can you say this isn't at least Lean Fitz/GOP?

Ditto. Tilt at least. Oh, I see I have it "lean" too. It's PVI is dead even, and Fitz is the incumbent, and the expectation is for about an even macro environment (Bucks isn't the best place in the world for Obama anyway), so if you give the incumbent a 3% tailwind, that equals lean overall here. Fitz baby at least meets the "reasonably competent" criteria. He is no Marino, or Schmidt or Akin or one of those types. He tends to his knitting. Bucks isn't the best place in the world for Obama anyway. Bucks trended 4% Pub in 2008, while Chester down the road trended 4% in the opposite direction. Bucks is kind of a rogue county in the Dem trending suburban Philly metro area.

(http://i1099.photobucket.com/albums/g392/swdunn1/Screenshot2012-05-02at50044PM.png)