Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: Hash on April 21, 2012, 04:30:05 PM



Title: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 21, 2012, 04:30:05 PM
For the first round (and the runoff), please post all results and result-related stuff in here; please post stupidities and the other stuff in the main thread. If anybody on here is interested, I'll mostly be liveblogging throughout the evening with full results as early as 18:00 (French time).

As a self-proclaimed specialist of France's electoral geography; here are my personal recommendations for some interesting and 'key' communes to watch for, which will probably be the main pastime after the exit polls. If you need a few key places to keep track of how things are going, here's where to look in priority:

Affluent right-wing strongholds: Neuilly, Paris-16eme, Saint-Cloud, Maisons-Lafitte, St. Germain-en-Laye, Saint-Ismier, Ste. Adresse, Saint-Didier-au-Mont-d'Or, Vincennes, Saint-Mande, Saint-Maur

Educated middle-class/affluent left-leaning/swing areas: Paris (entirety), Orsay, Palaiseau, Aix-en-Provence, Grenoble, Chambery, Villeneuve-d'Ascq

Comfortable middle-class suburbia (left-leaning): Cesson-Sevigne, Orvault, Vertou, Suce-sur-Erdre, Chauray, Pessac, Merignac, Tournefeuille, Blagnac, Cachan, Fresnes, L'Hay-les-Roses, Montrouge, Vanves,

Comfortable middle-class suburbia (right-leaning): Saint-Gregoire, Sautron, Le Bouscat, Bruges, L'Union, Balma, Castelnau-le-Lez, Lattes, Meylan, Fontaine-les-Dijon, Mont-Saint-Aignan, Bois-Guillaume, Marcq-en-Baroeul, Clamart, Antony, Sceaux, Levallois, Courbevoie, Sucy-en-Brie, Velizy (;)), Rambouillet

Bobo central: Lyon-1er, Lyon-4eme, Paris-3eme, Paris-10eme, Les Lilas, Montreuil

Old people dying on beaches: Menton, Antibes, Cannes, Saint-Raphael, Saint-Tropez, Saint-Raphael, Saintes-Maries-de-la-Mer, La Grande-Motte, Saint-Cyprien, Saint-Jean-de-Luz, Les Sables-d'Olonne, La Baule, Dinard, Deauville, Trouville

Lepenistes4Hungarians 2007: Orange, Carpentras, Vitrolles, Marignane, Aubagne, Carnoux-en-Provence, Béziers, Sete, La-Tour-du-Pin, Aigues-Mortes, Vauvert, Saint-Gilles

Right-wing working class: Sainte-Sigolène, Mazamet, Toul, Carling, Freyming, Forbach, Stiring-Wendel, Saint-Amarin, Oyonnax, Cluses, Scionzier

Gaucho-sarkozyste working-class area: Gandrange, Tourcoing, Wattrelos, Maubeuge, Dunkerque, Montbéliard, Sochaux

Gaucho-lepeniste working-class area: Henin-Beaumont, Lens, Bethune, Bruay-la-Buissiere, Lievin, Halluin, Grande-Synthe, Roubaix, Moyeuvre-Grande, Hayange, Fameck, Woippy, Lavelanet

Socialist working-class area: Thiers, Carmaux, Decazeville, Lacq, Lormont, Cenon, Saint-Nazaire, Cherbourg-Octeville, Trelaze, Brest, Montceau-les-Mines, Digoin

Communist working-class area: Givors, Brassac-les-Mines, Commentry, Vierzon, Saint-Junien, La Grand-Combe, Port-Saint-Louis-du-Rhône, Saint-Pierre-des-Corps, Allonnes, Dives-sur-Mer, Gonfreville-L'Orcher, Saint-Etienne-du-Rouvray, Dieppe, Calais, Divion, Auchel, Carvin, Avion, Seclin, Denain, Saint-Amand-les-Eaux, Marchiennes, Longwy, Villerupt, Hussigny-Godbrange, Garchizy, Saint-Martin-d'Hères, Fontaine

'Periurbain lointain' (Distant exurban, a topic of much conversation): Mormant, Nangis, Donnemarie-Dontilly, Villeneuve-la-Guyard, Coulommiers, Lizy-sur-Ourcq, Pusignan, Meyzieu, Bourgoin-Jallieu

'Banlieue populaire': Venissieux, Vaulx-en-Velin, Givors, Herouville-Saint-Clair, Mantes-la-Jolie, Les Mureaux, Trappes, Grigny, Les Ulis, Argenteuil, Saint-Denis, Aubervilliers, La Courneuve, Garges-les-Gonesse

Favourite sons: Tulle, Neuilly, Henin-Beaumont, Massy, Borderes, Yerres, Sarran

A good bellwether might be Donzy (Nievre).


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 21, 2012, 04:45:11 PM
Is that noon Eastern time?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 21, 2012, 04:46:38 PM

Yep. I wonder when the debate will be. Now that will be fun... for Sarko.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Insula Dei on April 21, 2012, 04:58:46 PM
Ah, Béziers. Fond memories.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 21, 2012, 05:23:31 PM
You're the best, as usual. :)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 22, 2012, 07:52:15 AM
At noon, abstention is quite low:
71.7
against 68.8 in 2007
78.6 in 2002
77 in 1995
72.9 in 1988
74.1 in 1981

Theoretically, good news for Hollande and Mélenchon.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 22, 2012, 08:03:14 AM
Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon

Hollande 33.75% > 2007: 26.6%
Sarkozy 18.75% > 2007: 24.9%
Marine 15.81% > 2002: 13.4%
Melenchon 15.17%
Bayrou 7.37% > 2007: 23%
Poutou 3.81% > 2007: 6.5%

Guadeloupe

Hollande 57% > 2007: 38.3%
Sarkozy 23.4% > 2007: 42.6%
Melenchon 5.38%
Marine 5.16% > 2007: 3.2%
Bayrou 4.73% > 2007: 8.5%
Joly 1.47% > 2002: 1.2%

Guyane

Hollande 42.73% > 2007: 32.5%
Sarkozy 27.03% > 2007: 41.4%
Marine 10.5% > 2007: 5.5%
Melenchon 7.91%
Bayrou 6.24% > 2007: 12.5%

Saint-Martin

Hollande 35.32% > 2007: 32.3%
Sarkozy 34% > 2007: 42.6%
Marine 12.5% > 2007: 6.7%
Melenchon 6.36%
Bayrou 6.34% > 2007: 9.2%

Horrible numbers for Sarko. Added 2007 comparisons.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 22, 2012, 08:05:46 AM
Fortunately, it's "only" overseas territories. But he will be trounced if it's the same in continental France :(

At least, I may be right on only one point: we are back in 1988.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 22, 2012, 08:47:34 AM
I just voted ! :) Second vote in my life, first in France and first for an electoral contest.

The perfect election to officially become a citizen. :D


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 22, 2012, 09:07:21 AM
I just voted ! :) Second vote in my life, first in France and first for an electoral contest.

The perfect election to officially become a citizen. :D

This morning, in my polling station, I felt like there were only leftist voters... really... :( :( :(


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 22, 2012, 09:18:54 AM
I just voted ! :) Second vote in my life, first in France and first for an electoral contest.

The perfect election to officially become a citizen. :D

This morning, in my polling station, I felt like there were only leftist voters... really... :( :( :(

What kind of precinct do you live in ?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: homelycooking on April 22, 2012, 09:24:46 AM
What's the general mood on the street? What are people talking about? Are there any rumors circulating? In what direction does the momentum feel to be going? Are the candidates' partisans optimistic?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 22, 2012, 09:29:12 AM
"Bayrou" is French for "joke".


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Franzl on April 22, 2012, 09:39:19 AM
I just voted ! :) Second vote in my life, first in France and first for an electoral contest.

The perfect election to officially become a citizen. :D

That is a good feeling :)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 22, 2012, 09:39:47 AM
I just voted ! :) Second vote in my life, first in France and first for an electoral contest.

The perfect election to officially become a citizen. :D

This morning, in my polling station, I felt like there were only leftist voters... really... :( :( :(

What kind of precinct do you live in ?

Leftist suburbian in the West... "Kind", "PC" and all the stuff... This old "left christian" influence that I hate ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Serenity Now on April 22, 2012, 09:40:41 AM
Your list is excellent, Hash. How would you classify Angoulême in Charente? I ask as I went there recently and saw a lot of Melenchon posters.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Serenity Now on April 22, 2012, 09:43:14 AM
I just voted ! :) Second vote in my life, first in France and first for an electoral contest.

The perfect election to officially become a citizen. :D

Congrats, young'un!


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 22, 2012, 10:15:36 AM
Your list is excellent, Hash. How would you classify Angoulême in Charente? I ask as I went there recently and saw a lot of Melenchon posters.

Angoulême is a fairly lower middle-class city, with a majority of the active population being part of what the Marxists out there would classify as the "proletariat" (ouvriers+employes). Similar to Saintes, La Roche, Brest, Lorient, Laval or Le Mans in terms of fairly moderate left-leaning lower middle-class cities. Not as affluent or professional as Nantes, Bordeaux or Rennes.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 22, 2012, 10:16:21 AM
Any live streams for tonight?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on April 22, 2012, 10:31:40 AM
Hash, are those the actual results from the overseas territories (If so, where's Martinique?) or just exit polls?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Insula Dei on April 22, 2012, 10:37:24 AM
At 5 PM turnout was 70,59% according to the Huffington Post.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 22, 2012, 10:53:59 AM
Hash, are those the actual results from the overseas territories (If so, where's Martinique?) or just exit polls?

Actual (leaked) results.

For anybody who's interested, my liveblog is set up here: http://welections.wordpress.com/2012/04/22/france-2012-liveblogging-the-first-round/


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on April 22, 2012, 10:59:46 AM
Google has a live results tally tool:

http://www.google.com/elections/ed/fr/results


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 22, 2012, 11:06:41 AM
For those like me who want to live in expectation and suspense, please don't post the leaked exit poll details on here. If you want, just post the url link to them so that those who can't wait can see them but those who don't can restrain their urges.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 22, 2012, 11:14:16 AM
Guys, I'm going out. I'm going to attend the election night at Sciences Po (my university). No spoiler, no live comment, nothing, but it will surely be an awesome night. :D


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 11:23:02 AM
For those like me who want to live in expectation and suspense, please don't post the leaked exit poll details on here. If you want, just post the url link to them so that those who can't wait can see them but those who don't can restrain their urges.

The Boardbashi agrees and will delete any such postings.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Insula Dei on April 22, 2012, 11:26:26 AM
France 2's election night broadcast starts in 25 minutes. Is it the best place to watch results?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 22, 2012, 11:27:38 AM
I just voted ! :) Second vote in my life, first in France and first for an electoral contest.

The perfect election to officially become a citizen. :D

This morning, in my polling station, I felt like there were only leftist voters... really... :( :( :(
You actually meet other voters in your polling station? I envy you.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 22, 2012, 11:34:14 AM
I just voted ! :) Second vote in my life, first in France and first for an electoral contest.

The perfect election to officially become a citizen. :D

This morning, in my polling station, I felt like there were only leftist voters... really... :( :( :(
You actually meet other voters in your polling station? I envy you.

Turnout is high and this day seems to be plenty of life... I'm pretty impressed: almost as much as in 2007... Amazing, considering the results were obvious.

It'll be a great victory for the left... They can thank Sarkozy very, very much... Back in 2006, I hated Villepin because I thought he was able to kill the right for many years. Well, after all, Sarkozy has done it !


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 11:35:47 AM
No, you'll probably win next time round. But a win (fingers crossed, wood touched, etc, etc, etc) is a win and the French Left don't have so many of those...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 11:38:37 AM
How long until the exit polls? I have two different numbers in my head for some reason.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 22, 2012, 11:39:21 AM
How long until the exit polls? I have two different numbers in my head for some reason.

About an hour and 20 minutes, though again the media has them now.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 11:40:09 AM
How long until the exit polls? I have two different numbers in my head for some reason.

About an hour and 20 minutes, though again the media has them now.

Diolch


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Meeker on April 22, 2012, 11:56:05 AM
Ipsos projects final turnout at 80.3%


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 22, 2012, 11:59:57 AM
I've found such leaked numbers. Only for the top five candidates and rounded to the full percentage though, so I could have just as well pulled them out of a hat. Hollande 27, Sarko 25, Le Pen 16, Mélenchon 13, Bayrou 10


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 22, 2012, 12:04:54 PM
Why does France always have such high turnout? Is it part of the whole "liberty, equality, fraternity" national psyche thing?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 12:06:35 PM
That's a reasonable way of showing that kind of thing, actually. Like they used to do with football scores: there's actually a chance of getting to 'look away now'.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Franzl on April 22, 2012, 12:07:02 PM
Why does France always have such high turnout? Is it part of the whole "liberty, equality, fraternity" national psyche thing?

80% is high...but not terribly higher than most countries in Europe , no?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 22, 2012, 12:12:59 PM
Why does France always have such high turnout? Is it part of the whole "liberty, equality, fraternity" national psyche thing?

80% is high...but not terribly higher than most countries in Europe , no?

Italy typically has over 80% turnout. 


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: tpfkaw on April 22, 2012, 12:15:25 PM
Why does France always have such high turnout? Is it part of the whole "liberty, equality, fraternity" national psyche thing?

80% is high...but not terribly higher than most countries in Europe , no?

Italy typically has over 80% turnout. 

()


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Insula Dei on April 22, 2012, 12:25:57 PM
Are we also supposed to abstain from commenting on certain trends in any 'leaked' exit poll results (, which of course the rtbf has been reporting without any trace of restraint since they've got their paws on them)?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 22, 2012, 12:31:36 PM
Are we also supposed to abstain from commenting on certain trends in any 'leaked' exit poll results (, which of course the rtbf has been reporting without any trace of restraint since they've got their paws on them)?

Yes, please. Only 30 minutes before the results at any rate.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 22, 2012, 12:31:59 PM
I'm BACK !!!

from my vacation trip to Germany. First time in 4 days I have Internet access !!! :P

Pics later.

So, what's the deal in France ?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 12:33:50 PM
A compromise would be a thread with a massive WARNING sign attached?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 22, 2012, 12:40:00 PM
Prediction:

33% Hollande
24% Sarkozy
16% LePen
14% Melenchon
  8% Bayrou


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 12:46:05 PM
A voté!

Et ensuite...

A dormi!

(well, tried to...)

I don't know if it's because I didn't sleep last night but it's crazy how one can feel powerless and ridiculous by doing it, when I was putting my 'Jean-Luc Mélenchon' ballot in my little blue envelop, I was thinking 'lol, how cute of me...'. That goes in line with my general feeling with that campaing and that election though, such a politico-media circus, thankfully it's over soon! only 14 days left!

Well, I still have a bit of interest in it though, I wouldn't be here otherwise.

Hey, big enough turnout apparently, that what I was thinking with the evolution of the campaign, some fresh people like Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen would help to make it higher, well, could mean the both are high enough.

Not that I feel that the results of this are that important, and that what they propose is a finality but:

()

ALLEZ LE FRONT DE GAUCHE!!

Oh and, fine that this year everybody has to wait the same hour to get some results.



Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 22, 2012, 12:54:02 PM
I've got BFM on because I can't find any better streams! TF1 is region locked, anyone got anything better?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on April 22, 2012, 12:55:50 PM
I've got BFM on because I can't find any better streams! TF1 is region locked, anyone got anything better?

Can you watch France24?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 22, 2012, 12:56:45 PM
Is Atlas deathly slow, or is it just me?
Both of you.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Meeker on April 22, 2012, 12:57:53 PM
There shouldn't be any real drama to this, should there? The polling has been incredibly consistent.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 12:59:25 PM
I've got BFM on because I can't find any better streams! TF1 is region locked, anyone got anything better?

Can you watch France24?

Other ones:

itele.fr

france2.fr

dunno if france3 does something live on internet.

There shouldn't be any real drama to this, should there? The polling has been incredibly consistent.

Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen remain quite hard to be sure about their polling. But let's just see. 1 min.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 01:01:12 PM
Oh................................

Freaking f**king gosh...

Marine Le Pen 18

Mélenchon 11


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on April 22, 2012, 01:02:37 PM
Oh................................

Freaking f**king gosh...

Marine Le Pen 18

Mélenchon 11

The BBC says Le Pen is on 20....


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 22, 2012, 01:03:09 PM
France is full of retards, once again.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: SPQR on April 22, 2012, 01:03:27 PM
One exit poll is even giving LP 20%...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 22, 2012, 01:03:40 PM
F**K!


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: ag on April 22, 2012, 01:03:54 PM

Hollande 28.4
Sarkozy 25.5
Le Pen 20
Melenchon 11.7
Bayrou 8.5


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 22, 2012, 01:04:07 PM
ARTE HD says:

28.0 Hollande
25.5 Sarkozy
19.0 Le Pen


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 22, 2012, 01:04:26 PM
YES!


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 22, 2012, 01:05:13 PM
AFP has Hollande 29.0, Sarko 26.7, Le Pen 19.6, Melenchon 10.5, Bayrou 8.3.
And Arthaud beating Cheminade for last. ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on April 22, 2012, 01:05:38 PM
This would be the highest FN vote ever?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 22, 2012, 01:05:48 PM
My earlier comment was of course on Le Pen's performance.

As of Hollande:

()

Also, Bayrou is a joke.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: tpfkaw on April 22, 2012, 01:05:58 PM
Who is this good news for?  Hollande tops the poll, but (including Bayrou) the right has a majority.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 22, 2012, 01:06:38 PM
Boing !

20% for Le Pen seems pretty good. Maybe she get's even higher in the actual vote count ?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 22, 2012, 01:07:36 PM
Also, lol at the joke Melenchon.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 22, 2012, 01:08:19 PM
I refuse to watch the BBC's coverage of international elections. It's too patronising. Darn language barriers.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 22, 2012, 01:09:56 PM

Not a fan of, but I feel almost sorry for him, since he got almost 10% less than freaking Marine.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 01:09:56 PM
Oh................................

Freaking f**king gosh...

Marine Le Pen 18

Mélenchon 11

The BBC says Le Pen is on 20....

I was taking my 1st results of itélé, they work with CSA, but apparently everybody around the world took Sofres, hopefully CSA is on something, and she doesn't break the 20% barre, freaking f**king gosh...



Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 01:10:42 PM
Would count as excellent, were it not for Le Pen doing so well. Oh well; we ought to take what we can get, so I will do just that.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 01:11:16 PM

Cute. Back in the 80s.  :).


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 01:11:36 PM

Hollande and Le Pen.

Quote
Hollande tops the poll, but (including Bayrou) the right has a majority.

Bayrou can't be counted as being part of the right, however defined.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 22, 2012, 01:12:22 PM

The most consistent electorate!


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 22, 2012, 01:12:46 PM
Bayrou is whatever you want him to be.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 22, 2012, 01:14:21 PM
A far-right candidate underpolling because people are too ashamed to openly support such a candidate? QUELLE HORREUR!!!!


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 01:14:51 PM

Maybe I'm a little bit biased about him, but he actually did the best campaign, which has been acnowledged by all commentators regardless of their biases, and has the most solid and fair discourse.

Now the point is really to know what this FN score is made of, it's been never reached before...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 22, 2012, 01:15:20 PM
Oh, and I wouldn't want to be anywhere near Segolene now ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 22, 2012, 01:15:49 PM
BBC not carrying the Melenchon speech. LOL.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 22, 2012, 01:15:54 PM
St barthelemy (cause that wasn't leaked earlier)
Sarkozy 62.4
Le Pen 11.4
Hollande 10.1



Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 22, 2012, 01:18:21 PM

Okay, they are.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 01:18:28 PM
Bayrou can't be counted as being part of the right, however defined.

Euh, listening to him in this campaign he would rather clearly economically be on the Right.

But technically, yes, it's almost a principle for him to always stick to THE MIDDLE.

But overall, Bayrou is Bayrou, period. He would only have a chance of future if Sarkozy loses.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Andrea on April 22, 2012, 01:20:57 PM
Wallis and Futuna

Hollande 48.28
Sarkozy 37.68
Bayrou 6.40
Le Pen 2.37
Joly 1.56
Melenchon 1.19
Arthad 0.75
Dupont 0.67
Poutou 0.66
Cheminade 0.45


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: ag on April 22, 2012, 01:22:22 PM

Sorry, I am a clueless foreigner - only remember of France's existence at election time :)) And tells you how old I am :))  That was the first thing I thought of googling and something came up :))


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 22, 2012, 01:26:55 PM
Where can someone watch official results, not the exit poll stuff ?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 22, 2012, 01:29:14 PM
http://www.google.com/elections/ed/fr/results


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: mileslunn on April 22, 2012, 01:30:20 PM
I thought Bayrou was centrist, so I suspect his votes would split pretty evenly between Hollande and Sarkozy in the second round much like they did in 2007.  As for the right doing better than expected, it seems in pretty much every European election the right outperforms what the polls say.  If anything like here in Canada, it might have to do with the fact the demographics that are most likely to support parties on the right typically tend to have the highest turnout.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 22, 2012, 01:33:30 PM
I thought Bayrou was centrist, so I suspect his votes would split pretty evenly between Hollande and Sarkozy in the second round much like they did in 2007.  As for the right doing better than expected, it seems in pretty much every European election the right outperforms what the polls say.  If anything like here in Canada, it might have to do with the fact the demographics that are most likely to support parties on the right typically tend to have the highest turnout.

It's a bit like the shy Tory effect, I think...

Who wants people thinking they're a racist?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 01:34:53 PM
Oh................................

Freaking f**king gosh...

Marine Le Pen 18

Mélenchon 11

The BBC says Le Pen is on 20....

I was taking my 1st results of itélé, they work with CSA, but apparently everybody around the world took Sofres, hopefully CSA is on something, and she doesn't break the 20% barre, freaking f**king gosh...

Sorry, france2, and apparently everybody else in the world, works with IPSOS, not Sofres, it's because my mind keeps associating Brice Teinturier to Sofres...

Apparently some other pollsters gives Le Pen 18 and Sarkozy 27. Hopefully she doesn't break the 20%...

Bayrou is arround 9 everywhere apparently so far. Douste already calling for a new (!) political force (aka movement) of the Center... That'd be those voters who gonna make this election. And tonight, what we can say is that, purely arithmetically, Hollande could need them if he wants to reach 50%...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 22, 2012, 01:46:54 PM
AFP has total results for Lozere
Sarkozy 27.8, Hollande 25.2, Le Pen 17.3, Melenchon 12.4, Bayrou 11.1
And the Ministry has total results for Creuse
Hollande 34.0, Sarkozy 22.2, Le Pen 16.3, Melenchon 13.0, Bayrou 8.3


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 22, 2012, 01:49:20 PM
...which are both far ahead of daddy's 2002 figures in these places, but also good results for Hollande.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 01:50:10 PM
Tonight, purely arithmetically, and taking IPSOS:

Left: 44%
Right: 47%
Center/Bayrou: 9%

If you assume that most of Bayrou voters would traditionally be part of the goold old UDF, then, it's rather good for Sarkozy.

But, once again, it's hard to tell of what such a FN score is done, and as for Bayrou, he can also embody a part of the anti-Sarkozist vote. Anti-Sarkozisme twistes a lot of things in the political debate of this country, and has been the main point of this campaign, so, who knows how it can turn...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 01:51:22 PM
...which are both far ahead of daddy's 2002 figures in these places, but also good results for Hollande.

Yeah, especially if you compare the turnouts compared with 2002 whcih broke abstention records.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on April 22, 2012, 01:52:43 PM
Hollande, Sarkozy, Le Pen, Mélenchon and Bayrou all won communes in Creuse and Lot.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 22, 2012, 01:53:22 PM
That Creuse result looks good for Marine when compared with Father Le Pen's 2002 result.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on April 22, 2012, 01:53:33 PM
Anyone going to be willing to explain the patterns in Guyane for me? (I write more in hope than in expectation... but hey, it's the atlas).


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 22, 2012, 01:55:27 PM
Lot
Hollande 34.5, Sarkozy 21.4, Melenchon 14.4, Le Pen 13.5, Bayrou 9.3 (Daddy had just 10.8% here in 2002, barely beating Saint Josse for third.)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 22, 2012, 01:57:29 PM
Ariege, though I really wonder why AFP has totally different departments up than the Government.
Hollande 34.4, Sarkozy 18.7, Melenchon 16.9, Le Pen 16.8, Bayrou 6.7

Doesn't really square with the results from elsewhere. Le Pen only slightly above 02, Hollande actually below Royal. Melenchon taking a bite out of traditional southwestern PS votes, I think? Makes you wonder who, exactly, the historical LO voters are going for...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 22, 2012, 01:59:18 PM
Aubry cuts off in favour of Marine. Gotta see humour somewhere.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 22, 2012, 02:02:35 PM
Anyways, real life calls. I'll be back tomorrow after work to take a long look at the full glory of these results.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 22, 2012, 02:03:48 PM
Wow, Marine was really belting out the national anthem there...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 02:04:03 PM
In case Sarkozy loses, UMP will be devastated, and Marine Le Pen could really take an important role. But really, tonight, nothing is done, especially when you consider that (unlike all people chanting 'Hollande has already won!!' during all the last week, how crazy), with the 2nd run it's a new campaign that begins. Will be interesting to see his behavior, if he still believes in it, then he should never be underestimated.

She just did a 'good' speech...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 22, 2012, 02:08:34 PM
Those counties that have reported so far- what are their usual voting habits?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on April 22, 2012, 02:12:27 PM
What sort of place is Saint-Martin-de-Boubaux, and why did Mélenchon win a majority there?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 02:16:10 PM
Florange (small place in Lorraine with big Mital steel factory, made lot of noise during the campaign):

F. Hollande 32,30 %
M. Le Pen 25,70 %
N. Sarkozy 19,01 %
J-L. Mélenchon 11,81 %

...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: afleitch on April 22, 2012, 02:21:35 PM
Big move to Le Pen in 'Nord'; FN up 10 on 2007.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on April 22, 2012, 02:25:38 PM
Seemngly, my family name is of Norman origin and stems from the town of Graye-sur-Mer, in Calvados, Basse-Normandie. I wonder how it will vote? That said, there's a town called Gray, in Haute-Saone, Franche-Comte (though not of connection)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 02:32:59 PM
Weak speech of Hollande, what a contrast with MLP's...

Also Collard (famous lawyer, support of MLP) confirmed what she spoka about a few days before the 1st run, they gonna change the name of FN and try to create a new big 'patriotic' movement. And Bayrou confirmed his will to also create a 'new' force on the Center. If Sarkozy loses, that reallly gonna be hot on the Right. UMP was mainly designed by and for Sarkozy, that'd make sense that, still in case he loses, it sinks with him...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 02:34:46 PM
All pollsters, to compare with exits:

http://opinionpublique.wordpress.com/2012/04/22/les-dernieres-intentions-de-vote-des-differents-instituts-a-lheure-des-resultats/


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on April 22, 2012, 02:38:13 PM
Seemngly, my family name is of Norman origin and stems from the town of Graye-sur-Mer, in Calvados, Basse-Normandie. I wonder how it will vote? That said, there's a town called Gray, in Haute-Saone, Franche-Comte (though not of connection)

The communes of Gray (32.2%), Arc-les-Gray (31.8%) & Gray-la-Ville (33.1%) for Hollande


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: freefair on April 22, 2012, 02:38:26 PM
Nobody is talking about the real elephant in the room... Hollande's % lead over Sarkozy just isn't that big. Even with all leftist candidatesdonating their bases it looks from certian he will win. He'd need Bayrou and a fair few votes from the populist hate machine  to win.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on April 22, 2012, 02:42:24 PM
What sort of place is Tremarget in Cotes-d'Armor, I ask because it seems that Joly has won it.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 02:43:15 PM
Seems that people have commune results from some departments that haven't declared yet; linky?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 02:43:50 PM
lol, Meaux, Coppé's city:

Hollande : 33,03 %
Sarkozy : 26,98 %
Le Pen : 17,72 %
Mélenchon : 10,78 %
Bayrou : 6,79 %

Ipsos on workers vote:

Le Pen 30 %, Hollande 27 %, Sarkozy 18 %, Mélenchon 12 % et Bayrou 8 %.

Makes sense but remains estimatioins and those can stilll vary acorrding to pollster by 1 or 2 points.

And, ah!

The public local radio France Bleu says that in Besson's city MLP did 30%(!).

And lol, Poutou did 1.2% and people in NPA HQ are chanting 'on a gagné!!'...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on April 22, 2012, 02:44:10 PM
Seems that people have commune results from some departments that haven't declared yet; linky?

I'm getting my results from here: http://www.google.com/elections/ed/fr/results (http://www.google.com/elections/ed/fr/results)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 02:44:48 PM
Nobody is talking about the real elephant in the room... Hollande's % lead over Sarkozy just isn't that big. Even with all leftist candidatesdonating their bases it looks from certian he will win. He'd need Bayrou and a fair few votes from the populist hate machine  to win.

That would be because it isn't an elephant in the room. At best it's a toy one. Sarkozy needed to lead in the first round (and to hope for the subsequent momentum boost) in order to have much of a hope in the second. Elections in France aren't as ritualistic as they once were.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 22, 2012, 02:45:48 PM
Weak speech of Hollande, what a contrast with MLP's...

Also Collard (famous lawyer, support of MLP) confirmed what she spoka about a few days before the 1st run, they gonna change the name of FN and try to create a new big 'patriotic' movement. And Bayrou confirmed his will to also create a 'new' force on the Center. If Sarkozy loses, that reallly gonna be hot on the Right. UMP was mainly designed by and for Sarkozy, that'd make sense that, still in case he loses, it sinks with him...

So the new FN as the new centre-right? God help France, vive le parti socialiste then I guess.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 02:45:59 PM
Hollande has won Cantal...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 22, 2012, 02:46:24 PM
Sarko looks like he's sucked on a lemon and is trying to smile...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 02:49:44 PM
Weak speech of Hollande, what a contrast with MLP's...

Also Collard (famous lawyer, support of MLP) confirmed what she spoka about a few days before the 1st run, they gonna change the name of FN and try to create a new big 'patriotic' movement. And Bayrou confirmed his will to also create a 'new' force on the Center. If Sarkozy loses, that reallly gonna be hot on the Right. UMP was mainly designed by and for Sarkozy, that'd make sense that, still in case he loses, it sinks with him...

So the new FN as the new centre-right? God help France, vive le parti socialiste then I guess.

Thankfully it's not as if this political system still really mattered and as if all those elections stuffs were still really serious... :) ;D

But, well, yeah, still matters a bit, and still says something...

Sarkozy speaking now, lol, he seems like in total momentum, he really shouldn't be underestimated. And he just proposed a totally new thing: 3 debates instead of one.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 22, 2012, 02:49:53 PM
3 debates!? BLOODY HELL.

()


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 22, 2012, 02:50:55 PM
Hollande gave a strong speech, Sarko spoke like a moron. Guess my mind is made up then.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: afleitch on April 22, 2012, 02:52:31 PM
Sarko! Sarko! Sarko!


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 22, 2012, 02:52:59 PM
HOW are the UMP supporters so joyous to be on the edge of a cliff!?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 22, 2012, 02:53:12 PM
Someone commented on twitter that Hollande's decision to attack FN in his speech was stupid because he will need their votes to defeat Sarkozy.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 02:54:53 PM
Hollande gave a strong speech, Sarko spoke like a moron. Guess my mind is made up then.

Every mind is. Hollande's was 'grave' (the French word, way to say serious/low pitched). But really missed of dynamism, and quickly went into technical things.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: rob in cal on April 22, 2012, 02:55:52 PM
What did Hollande say against the FN?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 02:57:48 PM
Someone commented on twitter that Hollande's decision to attack FN in his speech was stupid because he will need their votes to defeat Sarkozy.

He'd need a part of them yeah. I read on lemonde.fr that something gives that 5
27% of FN vote would go on Hollande, against Sarkozy I guess. But well, if so, he didn't take a lot of risk by attacking people, anti-sarkozism is something well seeded when it's present in someone...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 22, 2012, 02:59:38 PM
Do 10% 2nd round leads across a country disappear overnight? No.

Is François Hollande the French Neil Kinnock? No.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 03:01:12 PM
What did Hollande say against the FN?

What 'everybody' says against FN in France, which is an other reason why it missed of force...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 22, 2012, 03:03:17 PM
20% in (Google)


       
Hollande
33.5%
1,511,640
       
Sarkozy
25.1%
1,131,883
       
Le Pen
15.9%
719,479
       
Mélenchon
10.6%
476,337
       
Bayrou
8.8%
399,061
       
Joly
2.1%
94,176
       
Dupont-Aignan
1.8%
81,215
       
Poutou
1.3%
57,201
       
Arthaud
0.7%
30,416
       
Cheminade
0.3%
11,929


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 03:08:46 PM
1st official poll about report of votes on 2nd run, Ipsos, for what it's worth tonight:

Bayrou's vote:

33% to Holllande
32% to Sarkozy
the rest doesn't know yet

(lol, all of this so MoDem)

MLP's:

60% to Sarkozy
18% to Hollande

92% are sure of their vote for Hollande
89% are sure of their vote for Sarkozy


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Andrea on April 22, 2012, 03:10:18 PM
What sort of place is Tremarget in Cotes-d'Armor, I ask because it seems that Joly has won it.


124 people voted there. It's 1) Joly 2) Melenchon 3) Hollande


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 03:17:14 PM
Hollande takes Haute-Loire as well. lol.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 03:18:06 PM
wtf corsica


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 22, 2012, 03:18:56 PM

I just thought that!


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 03:20:37 PM

I suppose it must be a pretty common thought, throughout History and all that.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 22, 2012, 03:21:46 PM

Same. I was never under the impression that Corsu was a hotbed of French ultra-nationalist sentiment. And what the Hell is with Bilia?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 03:22:36 PM
What sort of place is Tremarget in Cotes-d'Armor, I ask because it seems that Joly has won it.

124 people voted there. It's 1) Joly 2) Melenchon 3) Hollande

Côtes d'Armor doesn't seem to be a bad place (...electorally ;D):

 
Hollande
   
33.0%   
125,333
        
   
Sarkozy
   
23.9%   
90,555
        
   
Le Pen
   
13.6%   
51,559
        
   
Mélenchon
   
12.2%   
46,297
        
   
Bayrou
   
10.6%   
40,240
        
   
Joly
   
2.8%   
10,545
        
   
Dupont-Aignan
   
1.7%
6,494
        
   
Poutou
   
1.3%
5,054
        
   
Arthaud
   
0.7%
2,552
        
   
Cheminade
   
0.2%
909

One could have thought that Trémarget could have been on the seaside though, because people on Côte d'Armor seaside have some reasons to go...Green:

()
        
   





Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on April 22, 2012, 03:23:32 PM

People here have to stop stealing my thoughts.... (but I prefer writing on the liveblog).


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 22, 2012, 03:23:45 PM
Lol Pyrénées-Atlantiques, lol Bayrou.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 03:25:58 PM

Same. I was never under the impression that Corsu was a hotbed of French ultra-nationalist sentiment.

Corsica is one of the place in France in which anti-Muslim racism is one of the toughest and one of the most openly admitted, they must have enjoyed MLP's 'energy'...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 22, 2012, 03:29:36 PM
What's the over-under on Hollande losing a single part of Limousin, Poitou-Charentes, Aquitaine, or Midi-Pyrénées?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 22, 2012, 03:31:06 PM
Guys, I've often said that Corsican nationalists can tend to vote for the FN in presidential elections. I've been proven correct again.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 22, 2012, 03:32:16 PM
Guys, I've often said that Corsican nationalists can tend to vote for the FN in presidential elections. I've been proven correct again.

I'm interested in why. Is it just that the movement has racist elements/tendencies?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Andrea on April 22, 2012, 03:32:56 PM
What sort of place is Tremarget in Cotes-d'Armor, I ask because it seems that Joly has won it.


124 people voted there. It's 1) Joly 2) Melenchon 3) Hollande

I think it's this place
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-qAE0VUaP8


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 22, 2012, 03:35:49 PM
Guys, I've often said that Corsican nationalists can tend to vote for the FN in presidential elections. I've been proven correct again.

I'm interested in why. Is it just that the movement has racist elements/tendencies?

It's difficult to be a nationalist and not hate someone. Only have to look to the SNP and their Anglophobia.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on April 22, 2012, 03:36:56 PM
Guys, I've often said that Corsican nationalists can tend to vote for the FN in presidential elections. I've been proven correct again.

I'm interested in why. Is it just that the movement has racist elements/tendencies?

Consider that in Italy the Alleanza Nazionale and Lega Nord were in the same coalition once. They basically decided that they had common ground in that both hated immigrants. Might be similar here.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 22, 2012, 03:37:14 PM
CSA being reported on BFM as 56-44.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 22, 2012, 03:40:40 PM
Corsu seems to have a north-south divide, with any appreciable support for Hollande petering out once you hit the area just north of Bastelica, which along with a few bits of Tyrrhenian coastline is also Panzergirl's main base on the island. Interesting.

(Sorry about this fixation, I have Corsican ancestry.)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 22, 2012, 03:43:09 PM
41-21-13 in Correze! :)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 03:43:29 PM
Correze is 42% for Hollande, 22% for Poison Dwarf, 13% for Panzergirl and 10% for the Fellow Traveler.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 22, 2012, 03:45:34 PM
Big block of pink filling in from the Loire to the Spanish border.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 22, 2012, 03:47:26 PM
So, looks like Miklos Horthy, Jr. is going to be the first incumbent President who failed to take the first place in first round.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Beet on April 22, 2012, 03:48:13 PM
Overall, it candidates running on anti-neoliberal platforms look to take about a third of the vote. And this is before the austerity thrashing Germany is about to deliver France in the next few years. After that, we'll have a real competition. Unthinkable five years ago. Unthinkable.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 22, 2012, 03:51:08 PM
56.5% in (via google, source: Ministry of Interior)


Hollande
30.1%
4,088,419
       
Sarkozy
25.7%
3,492,588
       
Le Pen
17.6%
2,394,722
       
Mélenchon
11.0%
1,495,290
       
Bayrou
9.4%
1,270,328
       
Joly
2.1%
286,010
       
Dupont-Aignan
1.9%
252,949
       
Poutou
1.3%
175,822
       
Arthaud
0.6%
87,700
       
Cheminade
0.3%
34,685


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 22, 2012, 03:51:29 PM
Hollande is massively outperforming Royal in Auvergne and Burgundy especially so far, it looks like.

ETA: He's carried every département in Auvergne, also in Limousin (obviously) and Brittany and on track in Aquitaine and possibly Midi-Pyrénées and Poitou-Charentes.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 22, 2012, 03:52:34 PM
Bizarre to that even a year ago DSK was definately going to be the next president and how François Hollande was a non-starter who'd be a blunder of a nominee. Bizarre.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on April 22, 2012, 03:52:59 PM
Do urban regions always report last?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Andrea on April 22, 2012, 03:55:09 PM
Do urban regions always report last?


They vote until 20:00 while many of the "rural" areas close the polling stations at 18:00. So that's why they report later: they started to count later


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 22, 2012, 03:57:26 PM
What sort of place is Corrèze? It seems really rural, possibly mountainous? Is it considered part of the Massif Central?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on April 22, 2012, 03:58:30 PM
Overall, it candidates running on anti-neoliberal platforms look to take about a third of the vote. And this is before the austerity thrashing Germany is about to deliver France in the next few years. After that, we'll have a real competition. Unthinkable five years ago. Unthinkable.

Well, it was certainly obvious 3 years ago, at least.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 03:59:57 PM
Hollande refused the 3 debates.

Dunno if debates can have a big importance in this election, but that's certainly an excercise that could be tough for Hollande against Sarkozy.

What sort of place is Corrèze? It seems really rural, possibly mountainous? Is it considered part of the Massif Central?

Lived there several years while a child. It's definitely part of Massif Central yes, very green, lot of forests, middle mountains, quite rural, slightly conservative, but still rather open minded, something along the rest of Limousin, might be the most rightist département of this région.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on April 22, 2012, 04:02:23 PM
Imagine how well Melenchon would be doing right now against a disappointing PS incumbent in the same vein as Zapatero or Socrates who implemented a series of neo-liberal reforms in the midst of a crippling recession...

Hollande's presidency is going to be a disaster to say the least.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 22, 2012, 04:02:36 PM
What sort of place is Corrèze? It seems really rural, possibly mountainous? Is it considered part of the Massif Central?

Lived there several years while a child. It's definitely part of Massif Central yes, very green, lot of forests, middle mountains, quite rural, slightly conservative, but still rather open minded, something along the rest of Limousin, might be the most rightist département of this région.

So Hollande's from a sort of low-key rural leftist background, culturally? That sounds nice, actually. Too bad he's going to be inheriting and presiding over an absolute sh**tstorm.

Where is Mélenchon ostensibly from, other than 'Morocco'?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Beet on April 22, 2012, 04:04:05 PM
Overall, it candidates running on anti-neoliberal platforms look to take about a third of the vote. And this is before the austerity thrashing Germany is about to deliver France in the next few years. After that, we'll have a real competition. Unthinkable five years ago. Unthinkable.

Well, it was certainly obvious 3 years ago, at least.

Maybe to you. :P Three years ago the euro crisis hadn't broken out, and most people didn't realize how bad it would get. In any case, just noting it down.

I'm proud of how well Melenchon did. He started out as a gadfly, and it looks like he may do better than Jean-Marie in 2007. Impressive. I'm certain he took some votes from FN as well.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 22, 2012, 04:04:51 PM
Hollande refused the 3 debates.

Dunno if debates can have a big importance in this election, but that's certainly an excercise that could be tough for Hollande against Sarkozy.

What sort of place is Corrèze? It seems really rural, possibly mountainous? Is it considered part of the Massif Central?

Lived there several years while a child. It's definitely part of Massif Central yes, very green, lot of forests, middle mountains, quite rural, slightly conservative, but still rather open minded, something along the rest of Limousin, might be the most rightist département of this région.

If Hollande is elected, he'd be the second President of Corrèze General Council elected President of the Republic after Chirac.

Interestingly both Chirac and Hollande were from outside of Corrèze, but made their political bases there. Chirac is from Paris, Hollande from Rouen.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 22, 2012, 04:06:50 PM
Interestingly both Chirac and Hollande were from outside of Corrèze, but made their political bases there. Chirac is from Paris, Hollande from Rouen.

Ah. I remember Chirac was also Mayor of Paris for some time. I'm always amazed by how much of what would here be seen as blatant carpetbagging goes on in Europe.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 22, 2012, 04:08:37 PM
Interestingly both Chirac and Hollande were from outside of Corrèze, but made their political bases there. Chirac is from Paris, Hollande from Rouen.

Ah. I remember Chirac was also Mayor of Paris for some time. I'm always amazed by how much of what would here be seen as blatant carpetbagging goes on in Europe.

Yep, he was mayor of Paris and deputy from Corrèze at the same time, as I recall.

It's funny one can be Mayor, Deputy, Minister or even the Prime Minister at the same time. For example, Chaban-Delmas continued to be a Mayor of Bordeaux (he was one for almost 50 years!) while President of the National Assembly and then Prime Minister. Now Alain Juppe is serving simultaneously as Mayor of Bordeaux and Foreign Minister.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on April 22, 2012, 04:08:55 PM
Imagine how well Melenchon would be doing right now against a disappointing PS incumbent in the same vein as Zapatero or Socrates who implemented a series of neo-liberal reforms in the midst of a crippling recession...

Hollande's presidency is going to be a disaster to say the least.

I suppose he's sort of a French John Kerry, even if this is obvious most people voting for him (as I certainly would in the second round) will be just concerned with getting Sarkozy out.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 22, 2012, 04:09:29 PM
Interestingly both Chirac and Hollande were from outside of Corrèze, but made their political bases there. Chirac is from Paris, Hollande from Rouen.

Ah. I remember Chirac was also Mayor of Paris for some time. I'm always amazed by how much of what would here be seen as blatant carpetbagging goes on in Europe.

Yep, he was mayor of Paris and deputy from Corrèze at the same time, as I recall.

What.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on April 22, 2012, 04:09:37 PM
Interestingly both Chirac and Hollande were from outside of Corrèze, but made their political bases there. Chirac is from Paris, Hollande from Rouen.

Ah. I remember Chirac was also Mayor of Paris for some time. I'm always amazed by how much of what would here be seen as blatant carpetbagging goes on in Europe.

Yep, he was mayor of Paris and deputy from Corrèze at the same time, as I recall.

That's legal in France? I know European countries tend to be more tolerant of carpetbagging but never thought to that level.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 04:10:43 PM
Imagine how well Melenchon would be doing right now against a disappointing PS incumbent in the same vein as Zapatero or Socrates who implemented a series of neo-liberal reforms in the midst of a crippling recession...

Hollande's presidency is going to be a disaster to say the least.

Yeah that's what I thought for a while, and why I once posted that no matter who wins doesn't lose (yeah, nobody 'wins' this election, MLP at best, polls kept showing that about 60% of Hollande vote was anti-Sarkozy, only about 30% was by adhesion to Hollande) 'Mélenchon-Montebourg 2017? Beware!'. I personally can't wait to see all those 'glorious brilliant' guys of PS dealing with reality...

That being said, even if I could have been very annoyed by all this PS hypocrisy all along the years, that would still be better to have them instead of Sarkozy on most realms...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 04:11:03 PM
()

Results so far...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 22, 2012, 04:13:14 PM
Any reason to be shocked that Marine's not carried a department yet?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 04:14:55 PM
Any reason to be shocked that Marine's not carried a department yet?

Not with both 'serious' candidates over 25%, no. She might still do though, and has come very close in places.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 22, 2012, 04:15:33 PM
Interestingly both Chirac and Hollande were from outside of Corrèze, but made their political bases there. Chirac is from Paris, Hollande from Rouen.

Ah. I remember Chirac was also Mayor of Paris for some time. I'm always amazed by how much of what would here be seen as blatant carpetbagging goes on in Europe.

Yep, he was mayor of Paris and deputy from Corrèze at the same time, as I recall.

That's legal in France? I know European countries tend to be more tolerant of carpetbagging but never thought to that level.

Yes. I'm not sure if there were some recent limitations (my memory may be fooling me).

I remember Poland until 2002 allowed one to serve as Mayor and member of Parliament simultaneously. Not necessarily from the same place (well, Hollande is at least President of Corrèze and Deputy from Corrèze). It ended when, the same year, mayors started to be elected by popular vote, instead of being chosen by city councils.

As of carpetbagging in Poland, don't let me even start ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on April 22, 2012, 04:16:11 PM
Any reason to be shocked that Marine's not carried a department yet?

She still has a great chance at carrying Moselle.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Andrea on April 22, 2012, 04:17:07 PM
Le Pen has won Gard

MLP 25.51
Sarkozy 24.86
Hollande 24.11
Melenchon 13.23
Bayrou 6.91


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 04:17:16 PM
Interestingly both Chirac and Hollande were from outside of Corrèze, but made their political bases there. Chirac is from Paris, Hollande from Rouen.

Ah. I remember Chirac was also Mayor of Paris for some time. I'm always amazed by how much of what would here be seen as blatant carpetbagging goes on in Europe.

Yep, he was mayor of Paris and deputy from Corrèze at the same time, as I recall.

That's legal 'the rule' in France

I'm proud of how well Melenchon did. He started out as a gadfly, and it looks like he may do better than Jean-Marie in 2007. Impressive. I'm certain he took some votes from FN as well.

His campaign was almost universally recognized as having been great and the best one, but really the results are low. He didn't even went beyond the traditional score of the French far-left, but as I posted above, he might, or his movement, might still have a future...

What sort of place is Corrèze? It seems really rural, possibly mountainous? Is it considered part of the Massif Central?

Lived there several years while a child. It's definitely part of Massif Central yes, very green, lot of forests, middle mountains, quite rural, slightly conservative, but still rather open minded, something along the rest of Limousin, might be the most rightist département of this région.

So Hollande's from a sort of low-key rural leftist background, culturally? That sounds nice, actually. Too bad he's going to be inheriting and presiding over an absolute sh**tstorm.

lol, no, at all, it's a cute Parisian upper middle class baby. ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 04:18:40 PM
Le Pen has won Gard

MLP 25.51
Sarkozy 24.86
Hollande 24.11
Melenchon 13.23
Bayrou 6.91

On cue, no?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 22, 2012, 04:19:12 PM
What sort of place is Corrèze? It seems really rural, possibly mountainous? Is it considered part of the Massif Central?

Lived there several years while a child. It's definitely part of Massif Central yes, very green, lot of forests, middle mountains, quite rural, slightly conservative, but still rather open minded, something along the rest of Limousin, might be the most rightist département of this région.

So Hollande's from a sort of low-key rural leftist background, culturally? That sounds nice, actually. Too bad he's going to be inheriting and presiding over an absolute sh**tstorm.

lol, no, at all, it's a cute Parisian upper middle class baby. ;D

...Oh joy.

The sheer domination of primate cities is another thing that interests me about Europe. Paris, London, Madrid...New York has nowhere near that much influence within the United States.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Leftbehind on April 22, 2012, 04:19:22 PM
Can we expect much difference from the revised exit polls, or are they usually close to bang on?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 04:21:32 PM
Hey Languedoc-Roussillon still at it, damn it, Aude:

F. Hollande : 30,40%
M. Le Pen : 23,22%
N. Sarkozy : 21,63%
J-L. Mélenchon : 13,15%
F. Bayrou : 6,04%
E. Joly : 2,09%


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on April 22, 2012, 04:25:26 PM
What sort of place is Corrèze? It seems really rural, possibly mountainous? Is it considered part of the Massif Central?

Lived there several years while a child. It's definitely part of Massif Central yes, very green, lot of forests, middle mountains, quite rural, slightly conservative, but still rather open minded, something along the rest of Limousin, might be the most rightist département of this région.

So Hollande's from a sort of low-key rural leftist background, culturally? That sounds nice, actually. Too bad he's going to be inheriting and presiding over an absolute sh**tstorm.

lol, no, at all, it's a cute Parisian upper middle class baby. ;D

...Oh joy.

The sheer domination of primate cities is another thing that interests me about Europe. Paris, London, Madrid...New York has nowhere near that much influence within the United States.

New York has that much influence within its state, doesn't it?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 22, 2012, 04:26:52 PM
Back.

So, here we go. The first and second results were pretty promising, then came the terrible news. Don't take me wrong, I'm not scared that Hollande could lose this. Even if Sarko had pulled ahead, his chances to win were extremely tight. Now, he's basically done. We'll get rid of him and in the next 5 years we won't have too much economic, social and moral regression. This is a great victory.

But then what about the future ? Le Pen got almost 19% when most polls were giving her 15-16. She did better than her father, and this while turnout was far higher than in 2002. It will be hard to sleep at night thinking one voter of five is ready to support the far-right. I'm pretty sure to know what comes next. The UMP can't remain competitive with a FN at 20%. They have realized that trying to steal their votes by adopting their rhetoric doesn't work. The only rational choice is an electoral alliance. It won't come now, but it might well come by 2017. And then we'll get a Horrible Coalition ala Netherlands... Of course now is too soon, the FN hasn't entirely "dediabolized" itself, but it will come, sooner than you think. The Great Reactionary Alliance, made of those who screw the poor and those who make sure the poor will turn their hate on the foreigners, those who claim to defend the people and those whose policies harm 90% of the people, this alliance is almost unbeatable. France's turn will come.

But I digress. All this will only come if Hollande fails in restoring hope. If he succeeds (he can't succeed alone, he will need other european social democrats to prevail), then the disgusting reactionary machine will be stopped in time. I'll bet on his success.

Now, there's a clear goal : winning more than 55%. Getting a clear mandate is a necessity, winning is not enough. Then, the goal will be to win a solid majority in the Parliament. If all this is done, there are decent reasons to hope.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 22, 2012, 04:27:21 PM
What sort of place is Corrèze? It seems really rural, possibly mountainous? Is it considered part of the Massif Central?

Lived there several years while a child. It's definitely part of Massif Central yes, very green, lot of forests, middle mountains, quite rural, slightly conservative, but still rather open minded, something along the rest of Limousin, might be the most rightist département of this région.

So Hollande's from a sort of low-key rural leftist background, culturally? That sounds nice, actually. Too bad he's going to be inheriting and presiding over an absolute sh**tstorm.

lol, no, at all, it's a cute Parisian upper middle class baby. ;D

...Oh joy.

The sheer domination of primate cities is another thing that interests me about Europe. Paris, London, Madrid...New York has nowhere near that much influence within the United States.

New York has that much influence within its state, doesn't it?

Good point! Perhaps it would within a hypothetical 'Northeast' country of roughly a large Western European country's population.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 04:28:42 PM
The case of Paris is exceptional, I think. Even London doesn't have that degree of...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 04:31:11 PM
Nord is in: Hollande 28, Poison Dwarf 25, Panzergirl 22, Fellow Traveler 12.6


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: The Mikado on April 22, 2012, 04:31:19 PM
With Le Pen doing insanely well, does that bode a shift from the usual pattern of the FN sucking at elections for the National Assembly?  With this much higher a level of support, surely it's nearing the tipping point where they'll start squeaking through even with France's electoral system.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 22, 2012, 04:31:54 PM
The case of Paris is exceptional, I think. Even London doesn't have that degree of...

Yeah, that's what I was thinking. Hollande even though he represents a rural area is apparently culturally Parisian. Sarkozy is from some awful Paris suburb. Chirac was Parisian. Was Mitterrand even from anywhere in particular?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 04:32:36 PM
Poison Dwarf edges out Panzergirl (and Hollande, actually) in Moselle: 26, 25, 24


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on April 22, 2012, 04:34:15 PM
Are there any seats where 50% of the voters are willing to vote for FN in a two-way election?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 22, 2012, 04:35:13 PM
The case of Paris is exceptional, I think. Even London doesn't have that degree of...

Yeah, that's what I was thinking. Hollande even though he represents a rural area is apparently culturally Parisian. Sarkozy is from some awful Paris suburb. Chirac was Parisian. Was Mitterrand even from anywhere in particular?

Mitterrand was from Charente (Jarnac) but his political home base was always Chateau-Chinon in the Nievre.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on April 22, 2012, 04:36:13 PM
What sort of place is Corrèze? It seems really rural, possibly mountainous? Is it considered part of the Massif Central?

Lived there several years while a child. It's definitely part of Massif Central yes, very green, lot of forests, middle mountains, quite rural, slightly conservative, but still rather open minded, something along the rest of Limousin, might be the most rightist département of this région.

So Hollande's from a sort of low-key rural leftist background, culturally? That sounds nice, actually. Too bad he's going to be inheriting and presiding over an absolute sh**tstorm.

lol, no, at all, it's a cute Parisian upper middle class baby. ;D

...Oh joy.

The sheer domination of primate cities is another thing that interests me about Europe. Paris, London, Madrid...New York has nowhere near that much influence within the United States.

New York has that much influence within its state, doesn't it?

Good point! Perhaps it would within a hypothetical 'Northeast' country of roughly a large Western European country's population.

U.S. States really can't be compared to European countries, as the former were the creation of the colonial/Washington administration often before the areas in question were even populated by Euro-Americans (or at least in large numbers). So the dynamics are different, but the dominance of Primate cities is hardly unusual in a global context, The US and Germany (a European city) are the outliers in this.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 04:36:25 PM
Pas de Calais: Hollande 29, Panzergirl 25, Poison Dwarf 22, Fellow Traveler 11

Haut Rhin is a big win for Poison Dwarf, though. Perhaps they preferred Daddy out there.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Insula Dei on April 22, 2012, 04:36:58 PM
With Le Pen doing insanely well, does that bode a shift from the usual pattern of the FN sucking at elections for the National Assembly?  With this much higher a level of support, surely it's nearing the tipping point where they'll start squeaking through even with France's electoral system.

Presidential elections aren't Assemblée elections, and I don't think there are a lot of chances for the FN to get more than 50% in a two-way election anywhere in France.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 04:37:11 PM
Yeah, France is a rural/middle cities country with one BIG of which all the other ones are fully dependent.

That's changing with time though, with political and cultural régionalization (that I don't all criticize), and the greatest development of regional cities.

With Le Pen doing insanely well, does that bode a shift from the usual pattern of the FN sucking at elections for the National Assembly?  With this much higher a level of support, surely it's nearing the tipping point where they'll start squeaking through even with France's electoral system.

Yep, that's what I was personally thinking, even before tonight's results, if only for MLP succeeding to do something in Hénin Beaumont, her big barking mouth in the Assembly would be something. That's done though, the 'Republican alliance' always happening against FN so far always worked very well. But who knows, those législatives élections could be quite interesting, at several levels...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Insula Dei on April 22, 2012, 04:39:27 PM
On the whole that first exit poll seems to have made Le Pen's showing slightly worse than it actually appears to be, right now. Still, the Far Right really seems to underpoll always. Also Melenchon :(

Oh well, at least Hollande looking good.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 04:39:57 PM
()


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 22, 2012, 04:40:59 PM
What sort of place is Corrèze? It seems really rural, possibly mountainous? Is it considered part of the Massif Central?

Lived there several years while a child. It's definitely part of Massif Central yes, very green, lot of forests, middle mountains, quite rural, slightly conservative, but still rather open minded, something along the rest of Limousin, might be the most rightist département of this région.

So Hollande's from a sort of low-key rural leftist background, culturally? That sounds nice, actually. Too bad he's going to be inheriting and presiding over an absolute sh**tstorm.

lol, no, at all, it's a cute Parisian upper middle class baby. ;D

...Oh joy.

The sheer domination of primate cities is another thing that interests me about Europe. Paris, London, Madrid...New York has nowhere near that much influence within the United States.

New York has that much influence within its state, doesn't it?

Yep, but no one can be Mayor of New York and Representative from Kansas at the same time.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 04:41:44 PM
Yeah, France is a rural/middle cities country with one BIG of which all the other ones are fully dependent.

That's changing with time though, with political and cultural régionalization (that I don't all criticize), and the greatest development of regional cities.

With Le Pen doing insanely well, does that bode a shift from the usual pattern of the FN sucking at elections for the National Assembly?  With this much higher a level of support, surely it's nearing the tipping point where they'll start squeaking through even with France's electoral system.

Yep, that's what I was personally thinking, even before tonight's results, if only for MLP succeeding to do something in Hénin Beaumont, her big barking mouth in the Assembly would be something. That's done though, the 'Republican alliance' always happening against FN so far always worked very well. But who knows, those législatives élections could be quite interesting, at several levels...

Keyboard slip in tongue. ;D. Hopefully not a 'revelatory one' as we say in French. Was suppposed to be 'That's not done', indeed.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 04:43:43 PM
Poison Dwarf edges Panzergirl in Vaucluse.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 04:44:58 PM
Forbach: Hollande 27, Panzergirl 26, Poison Dwarf 25

lol


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Andrea on April 22, 2012, 04:46:04 PM
Henin Beaumont

Le Pen 35.48
Hollande 26.82
Sarkozy 15.76
Melenchon 11.98
Bayrou 5.20


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on April 22, 2012, 04:47:36 PM
What sort of place is Corrèze? It seems really rural, possibly mountainous? Is it considered part of the Massif Central?

Lived there several years while a child. It's definitely part of Massif Central yes, very green, lot of forests, middle mountains, quite rural, slightly conservative, but still rather open minded, something along the rest of Limousin, might be the most rightist département of this région.

So Hollande's from a sort of low-key rural leftist background, culturally? That sounds nice, actually. Too bad he's going to be inheriting and presiding over an absolute sh**tstorm.

lol, no, at all, it's a cute Parisian upper middle class baby. ;D

...Oh joy.

The sheer domination of primate cities is another thing that interests me about Europe. Paris, London, Madrid...New York has nowhere near that much influence within the United States.

New York has that much influence within its state, doesn't it?

Good point! Perhaps it would within a hypothetical 'Northeast' country of roughly a large Western European country's population.

U.S. States really can't be compared to European countries, as the former were the creation of the colonial/Washington administration often before the areas in question were even populated by Euro-Americans (or at least in large numbers). So the dynamics are different, but the dominance of Primate cities is hardly unusual in a global context, The US and Germany (a European city) are the outliers in this.

I think the boundaries of New York state, at least, are reasonably organic. Certainly a state like Wyoming has no meaningful identity, though.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on April 22, 2012, 04:55:08 PM
What sort of place is Corrèze? It seems really rural, possibly mountainous? Is it considered part of the Massif Central?

Lived there several years while a child. It's definitely part of Massif Central yes, very green, lot of forests, middle mountains, quite rural, slightly conservative, but still rather open minded, something along the rest of Limousin, might be the most rightist département of this région.

So Hollande's from a sort of low-key rural leftist background, culturally? That sounds nice, actually. Too bad he's going to be inheriting and presiding over an absolute sh**tstorm.

lol, no, at all, it's a cute Parisian upper middle class baby. ;D

...Oh joy.

The sheer domination of primate cities is another thing that interests me about Europe. Paris, London, Madrid...New York has nowhere near that much influence within the United States.

New York has that much influence within its state, doesn't it?

Good point! Perhaps it would within a hypothetical 'Northeast' country of roughly a large Western European country's population.

U.S. States really can't be compared to European countries, as the former were the creation of the colonial/Washington administration often before the areas in question were even populated by Euro-Americans (or at least in large numbers). So the dynamics are different, but the dominance of Primate cities is hardly unusual in a global context, The US and Germany (a European city) are the outliers in this.

I think the boundaries of New York state, at least, are reasonably organic. Certainly a state like Wyoming has no meaningful identity, though.

You think NYC and Buffalo belong together?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on April 22, 2012, 04:57:30 PM
Oh so we do have a Le Pen department, Gard.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 22, 2012, 05:10:34 PM
()

As usual...
But it's at a higher level everywhere.
Surprisingly low in Doubs and Côte d'Or. Of course higher in more blue-collar departments like Pas-de-Calais or Meurthe-et-Moselle.
Stronger than usual in Loir-et-Cher.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: netzero19 on April 22, 2012, 05:11:33 PM
Why is Le Pen doing so well in eastern France?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 05:12:02 PM
Neuilly-sur-Seine (Hauts-de-Seine, Sarkozy's stronghold):

Sarkozy 72,64%
Hollande 10,17%
François Bayrou 7,44%
Marine le Pen 4,99%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 2,1%

Who can beat it!

Les Hauts-de-Seine, tu peux pas test'.

Why is Le Pen doing so well in eastern France?

Unemployment, for one thing.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 05:16:55 PM
()

But it's at a higher level everywhere.

Yeah, in Castres, of which the results are almost the exact same ones than national ones, which uses to be more or less often the case iirc, which comfort me in seeing this city as a so typical provincial small French city, she does 18% then, while FN used to stay between 10 and 15.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on April 22, 2012, 05:17:43 PM
Regions won by each candidate so far.

Hollande: Aquitaine, Limousin, Auvergne, Bretagne, Bourgogne, Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Lorraine, Haute-Normandie, Picardie, Languedoc-Roussillon (10)

Sarkozy: Corse, Pays de la Loire, Centre, Franche-Comté, Basse-Normandie, Champagne-Ardennes (6)

Not finished: Île-de-France, Alsace, Poitou-Charentes, Rhône-Alpes, Midi-Pyrénées, Languedoc-Roussillon, Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur (6)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: adma on April 22, 2012, 05:19:33 PM
I'd urge caution in categorizing Le Pen with the right wing--when it comes to second-round decisions, it's more of a "populist" free-for-all (and not just because the Right is cautious about explicitly cozying up with the FN)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on April 22, 2012, 05:22:57 PM
Regions won by each candidate so far, update.

Hollande: Aquitaine, Limousin, Auvergne, Bretagne, Bourgogne, Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Lorraine, Haute-Normandie, Picardie, Languedoc-Roussillon, Poitou-Charentes (11)

Sarkozy: Corse, Pays de la Loire, Centre, Franche-Comté, Basse-Normandie, Champagne-Ardennes (6)

Not finished: Île-de-France, Alsace, Rhône-Alpes, Midi-Pyrénées, Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur (5)

Hollande should win a majority of regions.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 05:27:04 PM
The big 4 is still to come: Paris Lyon Marseille Toulouse


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: ObserverIE on April 22, 2012, 05:27:59 PM
Donzy (Nièvre) breaks its record of voting for the winning candidate:

Sarkozy 27.2 Hollande 25.5 Le Pen 19.9 Mélenchon 9.1


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on April 22, 2012, 05:29:17 PM
I see than Morbihan decided to vote like the rest of the Bretagne.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 05:29:47 PM
Electoral climate in Bretagne definitely is better than weather climate there (they might have to compensate, amusing that this is exact opposite in south-eastern France), Finistère:

F. Hollande : 33,70%
N. Sarkozy : 24,46%
M. Le Pen : 11,98%
J-L. Mélenchon : 11,52%
F. Bayrou : 11,27%
E. Joly : 2,95%
N. Dupont-Aignan : 1,78%
P. Poutou : 1,48%
N. Arthaud : 0,60%
J. Cheminade : 0,27%


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 22, 2012, 05:30:40 PM
What is it about Morbihan? Even this time it was much narrower than the rest of the Breton départements.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Nhoj on April 22, 2012, 05:33:48 PM
The paris metro areas that have come in seem to have higher abstention jumps than other areas.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 22, 2012, 05:34:42 PM
How is Hollande expected to do in the Big Four cities, relative to how Royal or Jospin used to?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 05:40:30 PM
Hérault's such a leftist département! (...for Languedoc-Roussillon)

F. Hollande : 26,69%
N. Sarkozy : 25,31%
M. Le Pen : 22,28%
J-L. Mélenchon : 13,27%
F. Bayrou : 6,86%
E. Joly : 2,52%
N. Dupont-Aignan : 1,40%
P. Poutou : 1,03%
N. Arthaud : 0,40%
J. Cheminade : 0,23%


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 05:43:30 PM
Bretagne continues to show as a pleasant place:

Ille-et-Villaine

F. Hollande : 31,77%
N. Sarkozy : 26,02%
M. Le Pen : 12,39%
F. Bayrou : 12,35%
J-L. Mélenchon : 10,35%
E. Joly : 3,17%
N. Dupont-Aignan : 1,83%
P. Poutou : 1,22%
N. Arthaud : 0,67%
J. Cheminade : 0,24%

Best Bayrou score for a dpt?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on April 22, 2012, 05:43:44 PM
Benwah, Montpellier helps a lot for Hérault (Hollande 35%, Sarkozy 21,8%, Mélenchon 15,7%, Le Pen 13,7%, Bayrou 7,4%).


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 05:46:27 PM
Benwah, Montpellier helps a lot for Hérault (Hollande 35%, Sarkozy 21,8%, Mélenchon 15,7%, Le Pen 13,7%, Bayrou 7,4%).

Yes, was thinking about trying to find Montpellier, thank you, not surprising, the big Mélenchon vote might be in part explained by the important student community there, we might have more or less the same thing in Toulouse.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on April 22, 2012, 05:49:42 PM

1. Pyrénées-Atlantiques: 15,7%
2. Mayenne: 13,4%
3. Maine-et-Loire: 12,8%


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 05:52:03 PM
()


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on April 22, 2012, 05:52:31 PM
Oh, Hollande won Loire. I'm surprised, the department being quite right-wing outside of Saint-Étienne.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 22, 2012, 05:52:38 PM
Hollande 27-25 in Loire, Sarko 37-24 over Panzergirl in Alpes-Maritime (his best result yet?). Provence is a really politically awful place, isn't it?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 05:53:53 PM

Which is an extremely encouraging result, of course.

Quote
Sarko 37-24 over Panzergirl in Alpes-Maritime (his best result yet?). Provence is a really politically awful place, isn't it?

Indeed. Though it could be argued that the problem there is the great influx of French people (and obviously White Algerians).


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on April 22, 2012, 05:54:55 PM
Hollande 27-25 in Loire, Sarko 37-24 over Panzergirl in Alpes-Maritime (his best result yet?). Provence is a really politically awful place, isn't it?

Well, Côte-d'Azur isn't very good either. Only good place in PACA is the Alps, apparently.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Insula Dei on April 22, 2012, 05:55:46 PM
It also is significantly less nice than, say, Languedoc-Rousillon on most other terrains.

Just saying in case you'd ever be planning a holiday.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 22, 2012, 05:57:04 PM
It also is significantly less nice than, say, Languedoc-Rousillon on most other terrains.

Just saying in case you'd ever be planning a holiday.

One of these days I'd love to see some soft, peripheral travel movie about some privileged American or Briton finding love and/or his/her dreams at a little cottage on the windswept coast of Brittany or in the forested mountains of Limousin. Now there's some régions of France I can get behind.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on April 22, 2012, 05:57:43 PM
It also is significantly less nice than, say, Languedoc-Rousillon on most other terrains.

Just saying in case you'd ever be planning a holiday.

Well, I suppose. Some French people in Montreal told me than Azur Coast became Concrete Coast.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on April 22, 2012, 06:01:31 PM
A good win in Haute-Garonne (Hollande 32,9%, Sarkozy 22,8, Le Pen 15,3, Mélenchon 13,4%, Bayrou 9,3).

Again, Toulouse helped lower Le Pen score and raise Mélenchon score.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Serenity Now on April 22, 2012, 06:01:43 PM
France 24 just said 'round two' of the Presidential election. Hah, fools..


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Beet on April 22, 2012, 06:02:43 PM
Why are the rural areas of France so left-wing?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 06:03:15 PM
It also is significantly less nice than, say, Languedoc-Rousillon on most other terrains.

Just saying in case you'd ever be planning a holiday.

A case could be made for the French Mediterranean arch as a whole (which includes the seaside and its background) when it comes to political tendencies, well all what's in the Mediterranean climate, and when you see for example the South-West, which is one of the part in France in which the political tendencies are the 'sweetest', even for the part which is the closest from the Mediterranean arch, like the département in which I live, Tarn, but which is cut from Mediterranean climate by a few middle mountains, then that might be what I was saying, it's all about weather ;D.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 06:05:34 PM
Why are the rural areas of France so left-wing?

Which ones?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 22, 2012, 06:06:32 PM
Just reading an article and I didn't realise that Melenchon's 100% tax thing was a real thing!


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 06:06:53 PM

euh...yes...kinda what I was going to say...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 06:07:58 PM
Just reading an article and I didn't realise that Melenchon's 100% tax thing was a real thing!

Indeed!


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Beet on April 22, 2012, 06:08:08 PM

It looks like most of them except for the eastern border areas.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 06:10:19 PM

Well, look at Aveyron, just for one...

I'm not a data junkie but rural might where the Right do the biggest in France, that's at least how it's culturally seen.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on April 22, 2012, 06:10:54 PM
Are Le Pen voters the most likely to sit the run-off out?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Beet on April 22, 2012, 06:12:17 PM

Well, look at Aveyron, just for one...

I'm not a data junkie but rural might where the Right do the biggest in France, that's at least how it's culturally seen.

What about Aveyron?

Quote
I'm not a data junkie but rural might where the Right do the biggest in France, that's at least how it's culturally seen.

lol, come on dude. You're not seriously telling me that you're less knowledgeable about this than I am. I know that's not true.

The Right seems to be doing the best in medium-sized industrial cities in the east and north, not rural areas.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 06:14:10 PM
Are Le Pen voters the most likely to sit the run-off out?

...and Bayrou's.



Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Andrea on April 22, 2012, 06:14:28 PM
Hollade leads in Esssone by 5 points. Marine at 15%
Sarko led  Yvelines by 7 points with Le Pen at 12%


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 06:15:50 PM

http://www.google.com/elections/ed/fr/results

it's the big pink one siding the 2 blue ones between Toulouse and Montpellier.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Beet on April 22, 2012, 06:16:55 PM

http://www.google.com/elections/ed/fr/results

it's the big pink one siding the 2 blue ones between Toulouse and Montpellier.

And your point being...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 06:18:51 PM
Yay, Haute-Marne:

N. Sarkozy : 27,99%
M. Le Pen : 25,26%
F. Hollande : 23,75%
J-L. Mélenchon : 8,89%
F. Bayrou : 7,97%
N. Dupont-Aignan : 2,41%
E. Joly : 1,38%
P. Poutou : 1,33%
N. Arthaud : 0,79%
J. Cheminade : 0,24%


http://www.google.com/elections/ed/fr/results

it's the big pink one siding the 2 blue ones between Toulouse and Montpellier.

And your point being...

...that in this very rural département in a quite leftist French région, Midi-Pyrénées, you can find about as much communes in blue than in pink...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Andrea on April 22, 2012, 06:21:33 PM
Hauts-de-Seine for Sarzoky by 5 points.

So what is remaining?
Paris
Saint Denis
Val d'Oise
Bouches du Rhone
Rhone

Saint Denis should have Hollande comfortably ahead. Delanoe said earlier that Hollande was ahead in Paris with around 60% reported. I would expect Hollande leading in Val d'Oise too.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Beet on April 22, 2012, 06:21:59 PM
...that in this very rural département in a quite leftist French région, Midi-Pyrénées, you can find about as much communes in blue than in pink...

But Hollande still outperformed there and Sarko and Le Pen underperformed, overall. Is Herault, to its south, not in the same region? Hollande did far worse there and Le Pen far better, although Sarko about the same.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 06:25:03 PM
Hollande's constituency is in the Corrèze department. The Poison Dwarf is very much an urban politician and can't help but come across as such (whenever he tries not to be so, the result is but a confirmation).

But almost all French departments have a massive rural element.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 06:25:32 PM
...that in this very rural département in a quite leftist French région, Midi-Pyrénées, you can find about as much communes in blue than in pink...

But Hollande still outperformed there and Sarko and Le Pen underperformed, overall. Is Herault, to its south, not in the same region? Hollande did far worse there and Le Pen far better, although Sarko about the same.

Yeah, that's what I was saying in my stuff about climate and Mediterranean arch, Aveyron is part of South-West, doesn't belong to the Mediterranean climate area.

And all those départements that you can see in blue in the western half of the country are also quite rural, well, just enjoy to pass your mouse on all dpts and if you have an idea of where are most of French agglomerations/urbanized parts, you might see that what you were saying wouldn't be necessarily true...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 06:27:47 PM
Hollande's constituency is in the Corrèze department. The Poison Dwarf is very much an urban politician and can't help but come across as such (whenever he tries not to be so, the result is but a confirmation).

But almost all French departments have a massive rural element.

And a rather massive network of small cities too, but not necessarily close from each other, then we can't really speak of urbanized area, to sum it up France might have one of the lowest (if not the lowest?) urban density of Europe.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 06:29:14 PM
Of note, because it came so early that we missed it, Hollande carried Belfort.

And a rather massive network of small cities too, but not necessarily close from each other, then we can't really speak of urbanized area, to sum it up France might have one of the lowest (if not the lowest?) urban density of Europe.

And has always been... different... in terms of so many basic demographic factors.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Beet on April 22, 2012, 06:30:48 PM
...that in this very rural département in a quite leftist French région, Midi-Pyrénées, you can find about as much communes in blue than in pink...

But Hollande still outperformed there and Sarko and Le Pen underperformed, overall. Is Herault, to its south, not in the same region? Hollande did far worse there and Le Pen far better, although Sarko about the same.

Yeah, that's what I was saying in my stuff about climate and Mediterranean arch, Aveyron is part of South-West, doesn't belong to the Mediterranean climate area.

And all those départements that you can see in blue in the western half of the country are also quite rural, well, just enjoy to pass your mouse on all dpts and if you have an idea of where are most of French agglomerations/urbanized parts, you might see that what you were saying wouldn't be necessarily true...

Ah, ok thanks.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 22, 2012, 06:32:47 PM
Lol@Yahoo

Quote
Marine Le Pen, an extreme conservative, came in third with about 20 percent, exit polls showed. Jean-Luc Melenchon, a liberal, was in fourth with 11.7 percent; Francois Bayrou finished fifth.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 06:33:50 PM
Paris 18!

François Hollande 33.709 43,03%
Nicolas Sarkozy 15.253 19,47%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 12.019 15,34% Indeed!
François Bayrou 6.059 7,74%
Marine Le Pen 5.150 6,57%
Eva Joly 4.238 5,41%
Philippe Poutou 716 0,91%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 675 0,86%
Nathalie Arthaud 318 0,41%
Jacques Cheminade 195 0,25%


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 06:35:52 PM
And to finish Bretagne, Morbihan shows as the most rightist:

F. Hollande : 28,29%
N. Sarkozy : 28,16%
M. Le Pen : 15,55%
F. Bayrou : 10,85%
J-L. Mélenchon : 10,24%
E. Joly : 2,81%
N. Dupont-Aignan : 1,85%
P. Poutou : 1,37%
N. Arthaud : 0,61%
J. Cheminade : 0,27%


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 22, 2012, 06:36:47 PM
Val d'Oise for Hollande, details at eleven.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Andrea on April 22, 2012, 06:37:08 PM
Définitif Bouches du Rhône : François Hollande 16.06%, Nicolas Sarkozy 35.20%, Marine Le Pen 23.74


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 22, 2012, 06:38:49 PM
Seriously, screw Provence.

I enjoy the fact that Panzergirl's best result is in Vaucluse, which isn't even the département that she won.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on April 22, 2012, 06:41:31 PM
Dupont-Aignan wins Yerres


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 06:43:05 PM
About Seine-Saint-Denis I remember having seen something from someone from there giving Mélenchon 2nd with 20% in La Courneuve, the 1st was Hollande iirc, but I can't find official results.

Anyways, places like Val-de-Marne and Seine-Saint-Denis would help JLM, but also some places of Paris (the bobos and rough ones), BdR/Marseille can still help MLP though.



Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 06:44:31 PM

That's where he voted, I guess he lives/has a madate there or something then.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 22, 2012, 06:44:55 PM
Is it at all meaningful that Hollande got within five points of Sarko in Hauts-de-Seine?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on April 22, 2012, 06:46:21 PM

That's where he voted, I guess he lives/has a madate there or something then.

He's the mayor there, yes.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Andrea on April 22, 2012, 06:46:54 PM
Le Parisien has the following for Sein Saint Denis
Hollande 38.7
Sarkozy 19.5
Melenchon 17
Le Pen 13.5
Bayrou 6.1

Rhone

Sarkozy: 30.77
Hollande: 26.91
Le Pen: 15.09


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 06:48:32 PM
Le Parisien has the following for Sein Saint Denis
Hollande 38.7
Sarkozy 19.5
Melenchon 17
Le Pen 13.5
Bayrou 6.1

Indeed.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 22, 2012, 06:49:12 PM
Surprised if Sarko won Rhône, but I don't know much about that area. Is Lyon a more rightist city than average?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on April 22, 2012, 06:51:17 PM
Surprised if Sarko won Rhône, but I don't know much about that area. Is Lyon a more rightist city than average?

The rural areas around Lyon are very right-wing, too.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 06:52:51 PM
Surprised if Sarko won Rhône, but I don't know much about that area. Is Lyon a more rightist city than average?

Hmm, culturally yes, but who knows why the sane people of the city of Lyon choose the 'Socialist' Colomb for a while now...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Andrea on April 22, 2012, 06:53:38 PM
Définitif Bouches du Rhône : François Hollande 16.06%, Nicolas Sarkozy 35.20%, Marine Le Pen 23.74



ok, that wasn't true. It was too bad to be true

Real:
Sarko 27.5 Hollande 24.5 Le Pen 23.4%


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on April 22, 2012, 06:56:36 PM
Surprised if Sarko won Rhône, but I don't know much about that area. Is Lyon a more rightist city than average?

Hmm, culturally yes, but who knows why the sane people of the city of Lyon choose the 'Socialist' Colomb for a while now...

He got elected in 2001 because the right was divided and he was easily reelected in 2008, because, according to polls, he had 85% approvals.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: rob in cal on April 22, 2012, 06:57:11 PM
   Anyone have any feeling about what these results signify in terms of the upcoming parliamentary elections, in terms of strength of the parties etc..


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on April 22, 2012, 06:59:16 PM
Awful for the right, because FN could create many triangulars.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Andrea on April 22, 2012, 07:02:48 PM
ah, we still miss the French abroad.
Bayrou still have some fans in Taiwan.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 07:06:56 PM
Well, when you look at all definitive results that show pink because Hollande been the 1st, while that are traditionally rather blue places, like Haute-Loire it shows a Le Pen beyond 20, and a normal Mélenchon, it twistes a bit the départemental view then, and could eventually indicate that most of MLP vote express more a true rightist turn than an overall anti-sarkozist feeling. I mean the Right is still here all the way in those places, it's just going to a darker Right...

Surprised if Sarko won Rhône, but I don't know much about that area. Is Lyon a more rightist city than average?

Hmm, culturally yes, but who knows why the sane people of the city of Lyon choose the 'Socialist' Colomb for a while now...

He got elected in 2001 because the right was divided and he was easily reelected in 2008, because, according to polls, he had 85% approvals.

That's the weird thing when you look at the guy, but well, if they are happy with him...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 07:09:12 PM
MLP is so high in the whole North-East, not surprising she's high there, but she's really high, everywhere beyond 20% around there, and you can find some 25%...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on April 22, 2012, 07:09:23 PM
Seemngly, my family name is of Norman origin and stems from the town of Graye-sur-Mer, in Calvados, Basse-Normandie. I wonder how it will vote? That said, there's a town called Gray, in Haute-Saone, Franche-Comte (though not of connection)

The communes of Gray (32.2%), Arc-les-Gray (31.8%) & Gray-la-Ville (33.1%) for Hollande

Graye-sur-Mer: Sarkozy 29.8% (117); Hollande 28.3% (111); Le Pen 15.6% (61); Melenchon 12% (47) though Hollande has won Calvados (29.3%)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 07:13:24 PM
lol, seems like Le Figaro is almost happy of that big Le Pen:

()

Marine Le Pen's breakthrough relaunches the 2nd run


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 22, 2012, 07:15:21 PM
Surprised if Sarko won Rhône, but I don't know much about that area. Is Lyon a more rightist city than average?

Lyon is still the most 'bourgeois' city against 'bobo' Paris and 'populaire' Marseille, but like Paris, it is shifting left very rapidly with boboization and so forth. Hollande will likely win Lyon, and do very well in the bobo 1st and 4th arr'd, Sarko will sweep the bourgeois 2nd and 6th. Marine's performance in Lyon's leftie sh**thole burbs and the exurbs will be huge, Memelenchon will probably not do so swellingly in Venissieux, Givors or Vaulx-en-Velin.

...that in this very rural département in a quite leftist French région, Midi-Pyrénées, you can find about as much communes in blue than in pink...

But Hollande still outperformed there and Sarko and Le Pen underperformed, overall. Is Herault, to its south, not in the same region? Hollande did far worse there and Le Pen far better, although Sarko about the same.

Yeah, that's what I was saying in my stuff about climate and Mediterranean arch, Aveyron is part of South-West, doesn't belong to the Mediterranean climate area.

And all those départements that you can see in blue in the western half of the country are also quite rural, well, just enjoy to pass your mouse on all dpts and if you have an idea of where are most of French agglomerations/urbanized parts, you might see that what you were saying wouldn't be necessarily true...

Jesus Christ people, come on. You're describing voting patterns at a grade 3 level. My blog explains in with length, but "rural France" has never been homogeneous despite what so many idiots seem to think since the 1870s. Rural France has never been as a whole some massive right-wing strongholds. The DemSocs did best in rural areas in 1849, for starters. Religion or lack thereof, land ownership, social class and political tradition remains the best explanation of voting patterns in most of rural France. It might be appealing to say all rural areas are right-wing, but then the Ariege and Creuse must have some huge urban areas!


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on April 22, 2012, 07:17:13 PM
Yvelines: Sarkozy 34.2%; Hollande 27.3%; Le Pen 12.4%; Bayrou (11.2%) / Rhone: Sarkozy 30.8%; Hollande 26.9%; Le Pen 15.1%; Melenchon 10.7%

Just Paris and Seine-Saint-Denis now.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 22, 2012, 07:18:56 PM
Yvelines: Sarkozy 34.2%; Hollande 27.3%; Le Pen 12.4%; Bayrou (11.2%) / Rhone: Sarkozy 30.8%; Hollande 26.9%; Le Pen 15.1%; Melenchon 10.7%

My sh*tty departement has apparently remained sh*tty.

Waiting for Paris and 93, hopefully that will push Hollande up a bit.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 07:20:39 PM
Hollande accepted only one debate, to 'respect the tradition'.

Seems it could happen on the 2nd of May.

...that in this very rural département in a quite leftist French région, Midi-Pyrénées, you can find about as much communes in blue than in pink...

But Hollande still outperformed there and Sarko and Le Pen underperformed, overall. Is Herault, to its south, not in the same region? Hollande did far worse there and Le Pen far better, although Sarko about the same.

Yeah, that's what I was saying in my stuff about climate and Mediterranean arch, Aveyron is part of South-West, doesn't belong to the Mediterranean climate area.

And all those départements that you can see in blue in the western half of the country are also quite rural, well, just enjoy to pass your mouse on all dpts and if you have an idea of where are most of French agglomerations/urbanized parts, you might see that what you were saying wouldn't be necessarily true...

Jesus Christ people, come on. You're describing voting patterns at a grade 3 level. My blog explains in with length, but "rural France" has never been homogeneous despite what so many idiots seem to think since the 1870s. Rural France has never been as a whole some massive right-wing strongholds. The DemSocs did best in rural areas in 1849, for starters. Religion or lack thereof, land ownership, social class and political tradition remains the best explanation of voting patterns in most of rural France. It might be appealing to say all rural areas are right-wing, but then the Ariege and Creuse must have some huge urban areas!

C'mon, I was never implying this, the point of my post was precisely to say that you can't generalize. I know Limousin well enough, just for one, to know it, was just trying to show that the opposite wasn't necessarily true. Now, culturally, rural spaces in France, beyond voting patterns, would be culturally dominated by 'rightist ideas', which is indeed a big trait to describe a painting, but still.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 22, 2012, 07:21:11 PM
The Bas-Rhin has some very amusing voting patterns looking through that Google stuff.

On a side note, I've advocating nuking Languedoc-Roussillon since 2010. I still think it's overdue. Or at least nuking the resort towns would be great.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 07:23:20 PM
On a side note, I've advocating nuking Languedoc-Roussillon since 2010. I still think it's overdue. Or at least nuking the resort towns would be great.

Focus on Cannes-Nice and especially all what's between 1st, thanks.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 07:24:36 PM
Jesus Christ people, come on. You're describing voting patterns at a grade 3 level. My blog explains in with length, but "rural France" has never been homogeneous despite what so many idiots seem to think since the 1870s. Rural France has never been as a whole some massive right-wing strongholds. The DemSocs did best in rural areas in 1849, for starters. Religion or lack thereof, land ownership, social class and political tradition remains the best explanation of voting patterns in most of rural France. It might be appealing to say all rural areas are right-wing, but then the Ariege and Creuse must have some huge urban areas!

Ah, I was wondering how long it would take you to raise to what might almost have been bait.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on April 22, 2012, 07:25:26 PM
Yvelines: Sarkozy 34.2%; Hollande 27.3%; Le Pen 12.4%; Bayrou (11.2%) / Rhone: Sarkozy 30.8%; Hollande 26.9%; Le Pen 15.1%; Melenchon 10.7%

My sh*tty departement has apparently remained sh*tty.

Waiting for Paris and 93, hopefully that will push Hollande up a bit.

Do you live in Rhone or Yvelines?

Anyway, the 93's in: Hollande 38.7%; Sarkozy 19.5%; Melenchon 17%; Le Pen 13.5%


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 07:26:50 PM
Poison Dwarf carries Lyon by a tad less than 700 votes.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 22, 2012, 07:29:17 PM
Yvelines: Sarkozy 34.2%; Hollande 27.3%; Le Pen 12.4%; Bayrou (11.2%) / Rhone: Sarkozy 30.8%; Hollande 26.9%; Le Pen 15.1%; Melenchon 10.7%

My sh*tty departement has apparently remained sh*tty.

Waiting for Paris and 93, hopefully that will push Hollande up a bit.

Do you live in Rhone or Yvelines?

Anyway, the 93's in: Hollande 38.7%; Sarkozy 19.5%; Melenchon 17%; Le Pen 13.5%

Yvelines. Vélizy-Villacoublay, to be precise (which is just at the border with Hauts-de-Seine and is more right-wing than the departement as a whole).


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Leftbehind on April 22, 2012, 07:30:06 PM

Those figures are a bit presumptuous, aren't they? At 99.9% on Google's collating page, Le Pen looks a fair bit away from that 20%.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on April 22, 2012, 07:31:10 PM
Le Parisien is reporting Paris: Hollande 34.8%; Sarkozy 32.2%; Melanchon 11.1%; Bayrou 9.3%; Le Pen 6.2%; Jolly 4.2%


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: homelycooking on April 22, 2012, 07:31:35 PM
NDA victorious in his hometown by a whisker! Unfortunately for him, no luck in any of the other 37,000 communes.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 07:31:55 PM
Le Parisien is reporting Paris: Hollande 34.8%; Sarkozy 32.2%; Melanchon 11.1%; Bayrou 9.3%; Le Pen 6.2%; Jolly 4.2%

lolpoisondwarf


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 22, 2012, 07:32:34 PM

Those figures are a bit presumptuous, aren't they? At 99.9% on Google's collating page, Le Pen looks a fair bit away from that 20%.

Well, what they published are probably the estimate of some polling firm. Le Monde's strength compared to other journals is that it is published on afternoons and therefore contains real results rather than gross estimates. Their electoral pages are usually pretty great with complete elections results by departements and in the main communes.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 22, 2012, 07:33:44 PM
Le Parisien is reporting Paris: Hollande 34.8%; Sarkozy 32.2%; Melanchon 11.1%; Bayrou 9.3%; Le Pen 6.2%; Jolly 4.2%

lolpoisondwarf

I'm actually surprised. I would never have imagined he would break 30% there.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 07:34:35 PM
Anyways...

()


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on April 22, 2012, 07:35:22 PM
Yvelines: Sarkozy 34.2%; Hollande 27.3%; Le Pen 12.4%; Bayrou (11.2%) / Rhone: Sarkozy 30.8%; Hollande 26.9%; Le Pen 15.1%; Melenchon 10.7%

My sh*tty departement has apparently remained sh*tty.

Waiting for Paris and 93, hopefully that will push Hollande up a bit.

Do you live in Rhone or Yvelines?

Anyway, the 93's in: Hollande 38.7%; Sarkozy 19.5%; Melenchon 17%; Le Pen 13.5%

Yvelines. Vélizy-Villacoublay, to be precise (which is just at the border with Hauts-de-Seine and is more right-wing than the departement as a whole).

I see the bigger of your neighbours to the north-west is very much Sarkozy country


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 22, 2012, 07:36:00 PM
Le Parisien is reporting Paris: Hollande 34.8%; Sarkozy 32.2%; Melanchon 11.1%; Bayrou 9.3%; Le Pen 6.2%; Jolly 4.2%
The best result for Joly...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on April 22, 2012, 07:36:25 PM
Are there enough votes in Paris for Hollande to break 10 million?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on April 22, 2012, 07:36:41 PM
Le Parisien is reporting Paris: Hollande 34.8%; Sarkozy 32.2%; Melanchon 11.1%; Bayrou 9.3%; Le Pen 6.2%; Jolly 4.2%

lolpoisondwarf

Is that 'bad' for a centre-right candidate?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 07:37:16 PM
And it's not only the parts of North-East that are doomed by unemployment or which have an 'awful big city full of Arab scums' like Strasbourg who are touched by a very high Le Pen, I don't know precisely usual votting patterns in the 'neat peaceful and so flowered calm Haut-Rhin' but this still seems huge to me:

N. Sarkozy : 31,91%
M. Le Pen : 23,43%
F. Hollande : 18,89%
F. Bayrou : 11,39%
J-L. Mélenchon : 7,42%
E. Joly : 2,71%
N. Dupont-Aignan : 2,10%
P. Poutou : 1,19%
N. Arthaud : 0,64%
J. Cheminade : 0,33%

NDA victorious in his hometown by a whisker! Unfortunately for him, no luck in any of the other 37,000 communes.

36.000 communes please. And this is big enough, trying to reduce it seems to be an hard enough thing that govts regularly try that you better don't add some more...



Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 22, 2012, 07:38:52 PM
Would the Obama administration be loosing a key ally here? I imagine that Obama's views are closer to those of Sarkozy than Hollande.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 22, 2012, 07:39:02 PM
A few interesting departments to look at in more detail for those who like such stuff;

Finistere
Ille-et-Vilaine (Chouannerie4Sarko!)
Mayenne
Loire-Atlantique
Vendee
Charente-Maritime
Deux-Sevres
Orne
Manche (apparently nuclear industry isn't scared about Hollande at all)
Seine-et-Marne
92 and 94
Haute-Marne
Moselle
Bas-Rhin
Haut-Rhin
Doubs
Savoie
Alpes-Maritimes
Bouches-du-Rhone
Rhone
Haute-Loire (quite something...)
Cantal (funny Correzian influence...)
Gard
Aveyron
Pyrenees-Atlantiques (where is Euskadi gone?)
Corse-du-Sud (compare to the regionalists in 2010...)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on April 22, 2012, 07:39:20 PM
Are there enough votes in Paris for Hollande to break 10 million?

Yes. 345,627 + 9,813,758 = 10,159,385


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 22, 2012, 07:42:21 PM
And it's not only the parts of North-East that are doomed by unemployment or which have an 'awful big city full of Arab scums' like Strasbourg who are touched by a very high Le Pen, I don't know precisely usual votting patterns in the 'neat peaceful and so flowered calm Haut-Rhin' but this still seems huge to me:

N. Sarkozy : 31,91%
M. Le Pen : 23,43%
F. Hollande : 18,89%
F. Bayrou : 11,39%
J-L. Mélenchon : 7,42%
E. Joly : 2,71%
N. Dupont-Aignan : 2,10%
P. Poutou : 1,19%
N. Arthaud : 0,64%
J. Cheminade : 0,33%

NDA victorious in his hometown by a whisker! Unfortunately for him, no luck in any of the other 37,000 communes.

36.000 communes please. And this is big enough, trying to reduce it seems to be an hard enough thing that govts regularly try that you better don't add some more...


It's funny that they keep around some communes that no one lives in any more.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 22, 2012, 07:46:02 PM
Places where Marion has significantly underperformed daddy:

Ile-de-France except Seine-et-Marne
Alsace
Ain
Savoie (both of them, in a pretty big way... even Cluses-Scionzier is nowhere as Lepenite as I would have imagined)
Rhone
Alpes-Maritimes

I suppose a prize would be in order for one who could guess why this is... but I'll keep my apple pie prize for some other contest. Too easy.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 07:47:13 PM
()

Vaucluse:

N. Sarkozy : 27,44%
M. Le Pen : 27,03%
F. Hollande : 22,34%
J-L. Mélenchon : 11,14%
F. Bayrou : 6,73%
E. Joly : 2,26%
N. Dupont-Aignan : 1,50%
P. Poutou : 0,95%
N. Arthaud : 0,39%
J. Cheminade : 0,21%

Marseille : Hollande (28,05%), Sarkozy (26,93%), Le Pen (21,22%), Mélenchon (13,83%), Bayrou (5,52%), Joly (2,15%), Dupont-Aignan (1,11%), Poutou (0,70%), Arthaud (0,31%), Cheminade (0,18%)

Lyon: Sarkozy (30,54%), Hollande (30,25%), Mélenchon (11,83%), Bayrou (10,66%), Le Pen (9,87%), Joly (4,09%), Dupont-Aignan (1,35%), Poutou (0,76%), Arthaud (0,40%), Cheminade (0,26%)

And, wow, Tarn-et-Garonne is pretty much an exception tonight in South-West:

F. Hollande : 27,63%
N. Sarkozy : 25,14%
M. Le Pen : 22,10%
J-L. Mélenchon : 11,19%
F. Bayrou : 8,28%
E. Joly : 1,97%
N. Dupont-Aignan : 1,76%
P. Poutou : 1,21%
N. Arthaud : 0,48%
J. Cheminade : 0,25%

It's funny that they keep around some communes that no one lives in any more.

Ah well, yeah, you can find some with about 15 people here and there...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 22, 2012, 07:48:36 PM
I don't know if people were paying attention to them, but Hollande landslided 4 of the 5 overseas departments.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 22, 2012, 07:49:34 PM
She wasn't so bad in alsace and Alpes-Maritimes, Hash. And she isn't very high in Nièvre, Loir-et-Cher, Indre, Orne.

Sure, from Lyon to Savoies, she wasn't good (but it was the same in Doubs and Côte d'Or).


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 22, 2012, 07:50:11 PM

It's funny that they keep around some communes that no one lives in any more.

Ah well, yeah, you can find some with about 15 people here and there...

There are those too, in addition to the ones that literally have no one.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 22, 2012, 07:50:17 PM
Funny Catholic vs Protestant stuff going on in parts of the Gard... Just gleaning over results.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 22, 2012, 07:53:23 PM
She wasn't so bad in alsace and Alpes-Maritimes, Hash. And she isn't very high in Nièvre, Loir-et-Cher, Indre, Orne.

Sure, from Lyon to Savoies, she wasn't good (but it was the same in Doubs and Côte d'Or).

Daddy won 23% in Bas-Rhin and 23.5% in Haut-Rhin back in 02, and nearly 25% in 95. She's at 21 and 23% respectively. She's doing a bit less than 2% better than Daddy in 2002, so on a universal swing basis, she underperformed. Not that this surprises me one bit, I had already noted it in 2010. In the 06, Daddy took 26% in 02, she won 23.5%. Not surprising either, but still an underperformance.

Eure, otoh, is a nice result for her, just looking stuff over.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on April 22, 2012, 07:56:05 PM
I don't know if people were paying attention to them, but Hollande landslided 4 of the 5 overseas departments.

Which one did Sarkozy win?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 22, 2012, 07:57:19 PM
She wasn't so bad in alsace and Alpes-Maritimes, Hash. And she isn't very high in Nièvre, Loir-et-Cher, Indre, Orne.

Sure, from Lyon to Savoies, she wasn't good (but it was the same in Doubs and Côte d'Or).

Daddy won 23% in Bas-Rhin and 23.5% in Haut-Rhin back in 02, and nearly 25% in 95. She's at 21 and 23% respectively. She's doing a bit less than 2% better than Daddy in 2002, so on a universal swing basis, she underperformed. Not that this surprises me one bit, I had already noted it in 2010. In the 06, Daddy took 26% in 02, she won 23.5%. Not surprising either, but still an underperformance.

Eure, otoh, is a nice result for her, just looking stuff over.

Oh sure: I was thinking of 2007, not of 2002 or 1995.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 22, 2012, 07:58:01 PM
I don't know if people were paying attention to them, but Hollande landslided 4 of the 5 overseas departments.

Which one did Sarkozy win?

Mayotte.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 22, 2012, 07:58:49 PM
It will be interesting to compare Hollande's map with his own map in the PS primary and with maps of... Chirac :P

As a side note, seems as if Nièvre is "normalizing" in a way.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 22, 2012, 07:59:09 PM
I don't know if people were paying attention to them, but Hollande landslided 4 of the 5 overseas departments.

Which one did Sarkozy win?

Mayotte. It only became a department a year ago.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 07:59:57 PM
Yay Limousin!

Haute-Vienne:

F. Hollande : 35,93%
N. Sarkozy : 19,83%
M. Le Pen : 16,42%
J-L. Mélenchon : 14,36%
F. Bayrou : 7,89%
E. Joly : 1,80%
N. Dupont-Aignan : 1,66%
P. Poutou : 1,21%
N. Arthaud : 0,66%
J. Cheminade : 0,24%

Weakest dpt for the Right tonight?


It's funny that they keep around some communes that no one lives in any more.

Ah well, yeah, you can find some with about 15 people here and there...

There are those too, in addition to the ones that literally have no one.

Euh, I don't think so. Those are not communes, a commune is an administration, then there is a mayor, then there is some voters. Now you have some villages in which there are nobody left, and that you can even buy for some of them, but that is not a commune, those are only groups of old houses here or there. And then you also have hameaux, which are some small to very small groups of houses lost here or there somewhere, in which from only one to maybe a maximum of 30 people are living. Such groups of houses can be either some communes of 15 people then, of which the territory can be far more extended than those few houses since it can include some fields and or forests all around, or hameaux, which means that they are a group of houses belonging to a commune of which the center is somewhere else (and sometimes it can be very far away) in the countryside...

Welcome in France's rurality.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 22, 2012, 08:04:07 PM
Marine has done very well in old Communist working-class municipalities, historically so. Melenchon's appeal to the old PCF prole base has been fairly tepid to say the least. A comparison to Hue's 1995 map will be very interesting, I already know that Hue did better in the Allier in 95 than Memelenchon. The bad news is, I'll have to suffer through the loads and loads of douchebags who will use this as proof that there has always been a strong link between Commies and Fascists... just like the Commies use the 1984 Euros to prove the contrary... oh Christ... I might as well jump off a bridge...

btw, there are 7 (i think) communes in the Meuse which retain communal status and have an appointed administration, but they are uninhabited as they are designated as "villages mort pour la France" - they were destroyed in WWI and haven't been rebuilt. All other communes in France have at least one inhabitant.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 22, 2012, 08:05:24 PM
I don't know if people were paying attention to them, but Hollande landslided 4 of the 5 overseas departments.

Which one did Sarkozy win?

Mayotte.

LOL at French comorians being xenophobic toward Comorian comorians.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 08:08:28 PM
Hong Kong ^^:

Nicolas Sarkozy : 1860 votes - 56,8% François Hollande : 580 votes – 17,7% François Bayrou : 432 votes – 13,2% Eva Joly : 142 votes – 4,3% Jean-Luc Mélenchon : 115 votes – 3,5% Marine Le Pen : 99 votes – 3%


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 08:11:26 PM
I don't know if people were paying attention to them, but Hollande landslided 4 of the 5 overseas departments.

Which one did Sarkozy win?

Mayotte.

LOL at French comorians being xenophobic toward Comorian comorians.

I wonder if someone has a clue about the reason of this vote. Anyways, to develop about xenophobia, Marine Le Pen did 2,77%


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 22, 2012, 08:13:36 PM
Abstention was 51% in Mayotte, so let's stop grasping at straws.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 08:13:57 PM
Sarkozy won New-Caledonia too:

N. Sarkozy : 49,63%
F. Hollande : 24,91%
M. Le Pen : 11,66%
F. Bayrou : 5,13%
J-L. Mélenchon : 3,28%
E. Joly : 2,62%
P. Poutou : 0,98%
N. Dupont-Aignan : 0,93%
N. Arthaud : 0,54%
J. Cheminade : 0,31%

Hmm, the point of oversea territories would also be to have abstention results, I'd be curious to know it for New-Caledonia.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 08:15:37 PM
Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, no jealous between MLP and JLM:

F. Hollande : 33,75%
N. Sarkozy : 18,55%
M. Le Pen : 15,81%
J-L. Mélenchon : 15,17%
F. Bayrou : 7,37%
P. Poutou : 3,91%
N. Dupont-Aignan : 2,43%
E. Joly : 1,63%
N. Arthaud : 0,87%
J. Cheminade : 0,49%

Poutou!

If you add it to Mélenchon, and well Hollande, that puts it quite on the Left, didn't know.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 22, 2012, 08:17:12 PM
Sarkozy won New-Caledonia too:

N. Sarkozy : 49,63%
F. Hollande : 24,91%
M. Le Pen : 11,66%
F. Bayrou : 5,13%
J-L. Mélenchon : 3,28%
E. Joly : 2,62%
P. Poutou : 0,98%
N. Dupont-Aignan : 0,93%
N. Arthaud : 0,54%
J. Cheminade : 0,31%

Hmm, the point of oversea territories would also be to have abstention results, I'd be curious to know it for New-Caledonia.

44.6% in New Caledonia. I'd be curious to see a map of results and abstention in Kanakie/New Caledonia by commune, though I can draw it up in my mind right now and not be too far off.

SPM was posted on page one here.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 08:20:00 PM
Saint-Martin/Saint-Barthélémy:

 N. Sarkozy : 43,62%
F. Hollande : 26,78%
M. Le Pen : 12,14%
F. Bayrou : 5,89%
J-L. Mélenchon : 5,89% lol, indeed
E. Joly : 2,59%
N. Dupont-Aignan : 1,15%
P. Poutou : 1,06%
N. Arthaud : 0,55%
J. Cheminade : 0,35%


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on April 22, 2012, 08:21:12 PM
Pretty awful for Sarko in Paris. He won only 1st, 6th, 7th, 8th, 15th, 16th and 17th arrondissements.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Beet on April 22, 2012, 08:22:12 PM
Marine has done very well in old Communist working-class municipalities, historically so. Melenchon's appeal to the old PCF prole base has been fairly tepid to say the least. A comparison to Hue's 1995 map will be very interesting, I already know that Hue did better in the Allier in 95 than Memelenchon. The bad news is, I'll have to suffer through the loads and loads of douchebags who will use this as proof that there has always been a strong link between Commies and Fascists... just like the Commies use the 1984 Euros to prove the contrary... oh Christ... I might as well jump off a bridge...

Well as far as the campaign went, were there glaring differences between Marine and Melenchon on economic policy? They are both euroskeptic, anti-globalization, one favors regulating banks heavily, the other favors nationalizing them, etc. Main difference is one emphasizes reducing immigration, the other does not speak to it, no?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 08:26:04 PM
To sum it on oversea territories:

Sarkozy won Saint-Martin/Saint Barth, New-Caledonia, Polynesia, Mayotte

Hollande Guyanne, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Réunion, Saint-Pierre et Miquelon, Wallis et Futuna

In short, dunno if it tells something, but Hollande wins all the DOMs but one, and Sarkozy all the TOMs but one.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 08:28:08 PM
Marine has done very well in old Communist working-class municipalities, historically so. Melenchon's appeal to the old PCF prole base has been fairly tepid to say the least. A comparison to Hue's 1995 map will be very interesting, I already know that Hue did better in the Allier in 95 than Memelenchon. The bad news is, I'll have to suffer through the loads and loads of douchebags who will use this as proof that there has always been a strong link between Commies and Fascists... just like the Commies use the 1984 Euros to prove the contrary... oh Christ... I might as well jump off a bridge...

Well as far as the campaign went, were there glaring differences between Marine and Melenchon on economic policy? They are both euroskeptic, anti-globalization, one favors regulating banks heavily, the other favors nationalizing them, etc. Main difference is one emphasizes reducing immigration, the other does not speak to it, no?

Mélenchon is for regularization of Capitalism and against Financial world overall.

Le Pen is for nationalism and against Globalization overall.

Just for the main traits.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 22, 2012, 08:29:35 PM
Here's one type of place where Sarko held up very well vis-a-vis 2007: very wealthy suburbs. Not surprising. This whole campaign, besides Sarko, has been about who would come up with the best insult to rich people.

edit: confirmed. He's even improving on his 2007 results in a good number of wealthyland places.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 08:30:58 PM
For what it's worth:

()


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 08:42:11 PM
()


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 08:47:01 PM
Official site of Paris' city:

http://www.paris.fr/politiques/Portal.lut?page_id=7796&document_type_id=4&document_id=114391&portlet_id=17975


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: LastVoter on April 22, 2012, 08:48:08 PM
France has really left wing & radical men!


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on April 22, 2012, 08:51:26 PM
Why do olds like Sarkozy so much? Is that normal for UMP candidates?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 22, 2012, 09:16:29 PM
And here we are...

()


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 09:23:30 PM
Well, to sum it, yeah, bad turn for Sarkozy, he is not ahead, FN is bigger than ever especially when you consider the turnout (in this sense maybe the comparison with MLP doing less than her father here or there might not be totally relevant, since 2002 had the records of abstention), Hollande is several points ahead of him, Mélenchon isn't a danger for him because his score is finally quite low compared to last scores of the French far-left as a whole, so Centrists won't have to be much afraid of Hollande having to do big concessions to Mélenchon, moreover the Centrist vote in this election is some people who have voted for Bayrou, that is for someone of which the main job has been to do some anti-Sarkozysme during 5 years (along with more or less the whole French political class that wasn't on Sarkozy's side). Sarkozy will have to hunt a lot of FN votes, and it would make flee Centrists still more...

Seems only the debate could save Sarkozy so far, or a war, or some major riots in some rough districts eventually.

If Hollande 'wins' it would be a totally Rajoy 'victory', doing nothing, saying nothing, rather invisible campaign, mainly oriented at hitting on the opponent.

If Hollande 'wins' then, the UMP will be totally destroyed. Coppé is totally weak as a leader, Fillon is over tired, and Juppé is old, and you have all youngs with giant teeth like NKM and overall Wauqiez and Yade which won't help. This while Marine Le Pen is in a total momentum now. And who will try to extend a new movement the further she can to the traditional Right. Sarkozy wanted eat FN vote? The backlash could eventually be terrible.

Législatives will be quite important.

While I've been over annoyed by PS during years and years, I always planed to finish with a Hollande ballot in the hand, but I actually tend to wonder what would be the worse for the country when you look at the whole picture. There is no momentum at all around Hollande, no enthusiasm, and this in a totally shaked up epoch while PS wouldn't much more solutions than Sarkozy had to face the challenges we're facing nowadays...

While I don't fear an actual far-right danger electorally, as in taking the 'power' (yeah for the part of power which is left to this political system anyhow...) in France, and in Europe as a whole I'd say (next interesting thing to monitor in this regard will be Greece), the coming times could actually become heavy psychologically.

()

C'mon! This Front is more needed than the other one!

It's a bad night.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Beet on April 22, 2012, 09:40:26 PM
Is it really so bad? (it's hard for me to say this since I'm usually aggressively pessimistic)

First of all, aren't there numerous other left-wing candidates on the ballot? (Poutou, Arthaud,Cheminade) When I sum these up I get about 13.1%. Compared to 2007, when you sum up the far left candidates you get around 9.4%. So the far left did improve.

Secondly, 18% for FN- really that much surprise? Yes it's two points higher than her polling, but the far-right frequently underpolls-we knew that. Plus at the beginning of the year she was polling at 19-20%. Yes she did better than her father in 2002, but in 2002 there was no economic crisis. Now you have this movement (FN) saying for years that the euro was going to be a problem, and you have this massive crisis. No surprise at all.

I've taken another look at Marine's positions- she supports allowing the government to borrow from the central bank at low interest. This is a sane position-- arguably the Bundesbank position is far more insane than that. She supports the Havana Charter, a Keynesian idea to stabilize trade imbalances between countries. The last problem Keynes worked on at the end of his life. I don't see this as a problem.

Overall, except that she is associated with FN, I think some of her positions should be taken and co-opted by the left. Melenchon or someone like him should continue to build on his movement, perhaps moderate a bit to attract more voters. France must learn to say 'no' or at least credibly threaten it or Merkel will never wake up. Now France has Spain, Italy, and possibly Netherlands at her side! The majority of Europe is waking up.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on April 22, 2012, 09:52:42 PM
I can see what people mean now by saying it's overtly simplistic to describe Paris as right wing with Le Pen's performance there.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 10:01:22 PM
Well, about the rest of French far-left, they really can't be considered serious 'blahblalah CAPITALISM IS EVIL!....blahblhablha....ELECTIONS ARE USELESS! WE NEED A NEW REVOLUTION!...blablhablha...F**K IT ALL! WE KNOW THE GOOD SOLUTIONS...blhablhablha...ALL OF THIS IS A BOURGEOISIE CONSPIRACY!...blhablhablha...ETC!'

Something like that. No, it really doesn't help. Mélenchon was by far the most constructive with a quite pedagogic and well articulated discourse, which is why even if personally I don't believe in solutions within the economico-political system in which we are living, and while I was as much annoyed by this over tired PCF, I found Mélenchon quite refreshing and thought about voting for him, and that something could happen around him since the end of 2010, before the world 'entered into Revolution'... And when you see the blow that is campaign had, it can only be disappointing.

But, that being said, yeah, as I kept saying, and even several times tonight, a movement like this could really have a future, and even if I don't see what he proposes as a finality at all, I see most of what he proposes as some steps that goes in the right direction to me.

But, the other point is the actual surprise of tonight. FN biggest than ever. The very big and very positive dynamic around Mélenchon's campaign makes that, besides the reasons you gave to explain her raise, which would be rather relevant, such a FN score is surprising, because such a FDG score is surprising.

Oh, and, about Marine Le Pen's positioning on such or such, yeah, you might read fancy things here or there that want to make her movement look sane, but when you hear her barking all over, you understand like...an other kind of ambiance.

So, yeah, I'd personally be rather optimistic for Europe on the Middle term (thankfully the shortly middle possible), but still if someone like Marine Le Pen takes a big importance, and at worst plays one of the most important roles, even if I think all this system turns more and more into a less and less relevant joke, once again, on the short term, psychologically, could be heavy.

We'll know more in 14 days.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 10:11:41 PM
Trivia that I just read:

New-York (Upper East Side only): Sarkozy 60% - Hollande 19%

Biggest MLP score:

Brachay (Haute-Marne): 72% (!)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 10:16:34 PM
Cheminade 22,73% and Hollande 13,64% in Varmonzey (Vosges)!

(5 votes for Cheminade against 3 for Hollande ;D)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on April 22, 2012, 10:24:34 PM
lol, seems like Le Figaro is almost happy of that big Le Pen:
Marine Le Pen's breakthrough relaunches the 2nd run

MLP's strength is the most unexpected result and hence the most newsworthy.  I'd expected her to do better than her polling numbers, but not this much better.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 10:27:13 PM
lol, seems like Le Figaro is almost happy of that big Le Pen:
Marine Le Pen's breakthrough relaunches the 2nd run

MLP's strength is the most unexpected result and hence the most newsworthy.

Yeah, but one has to know that Le Figaro is a UMP/Sarkozy hack thing. Then this 'relaunches' can be seen as 'cool, France is on the far-right, good news for Sarkozy'...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on April 22, 2012, 10:29:39 PM

What's the difference between A, B, and C?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 22, 2012, 10:29:55 PM
Damn it, Cheminade doesn't gives voting instructions.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on April 22, 2012, 11:08:10 PM
So what are Sarkozy's odds of survival? Maybe 1/5 or something like that?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Meeker on April 22, 2012, 11:18:42 PM
He hasn't led Hollande in a poll since late 2009. Put a fork in him.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: redcommander on April 23, 2012, 02:15:27 AM
I refuse to believe that France will elect Hollande.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 23, 2012, 02:19:46 AM
I refuse to believe that France will elect Hollande.

...

...I genuinely pity you.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 23, 2012, 02:57:37 AM
I refuse to believe that France will elect Hollande.

Well, I'm sorry to break this to you but Sarkozy and his conservative brethren have screwed it royally here in Europe.
Payback is a bitch.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 23, 2012, 03:15:43 AM
I refuse to believe that France will elect Hollande.

Don't worry, Sarkozy still has a good chance to pull this out in round 2, no matter what the polls say right now.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: redcommander on April 23, 2012, 03:32:36 AM
I refuse to believe that France will elect Hollande.

Don't worry, Sarkozy still has a good chance to pull this out in round 2, no matter what the polls say right now.

Are you being serious or sarcastic?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 23, 2012, 03:37:58 AM
I refuse to believe that France will elect Hollande.

Don't worry, Sarkozy still has a good chance to pull this out in round 2, no matter what the polls say right now.

Are you being serious or sarcastic?

Serious.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Franzl on April 23, 2012, 03:44:06 AM
What could really change the direction of this election? Strong debate performance? As much as I'd prefer to see Sarkozy re-elected, I don't see why he'd convince voters in these final two weeks of why they should give him another chance.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: redcommander on April 23, 2012, 03:48:01 AM
What could really change the direction of this election? Strong debate performance? As much as I'd prefer to see Sarkozy re-elected, I don't see why he'd convince voters in these final two weeks of why they should give him another chance.

Maybe there's some scandal with Hollande that no one knows about yet?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Franzl on April 23, 2012, 03:51:31 AM
What could really change the direction of this election? Strong debate performance? As much as I'd prefer to see Sarkozy re-elected, I don't see why he'd convince voters in these final two weeks of why they should give him another chance.

Maybe there's some scandal with Hollande that no one knows about yet?

Yeah, or aliens might rig the election. Guess we shouldn't give up hope. Who knows, right?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 23, 2012, 04:02:09 AM
So what are Sarkozy's odds of survival? Maybe 1/5 or something like that?

More like 1/20, to be objective. He would have to pick 4 points in two weeks.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: politicus on April 23, 2012, 06:16:07 AM

It's funny that they keep around some communes that no one lives in any more.

Ah well, yeah, you can find some with about 15 people here and there...

There are those too, in addition to the ones that literally have no one.
So if you moved there, you could be your own mayor?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on April 23, 2012, 06:18:49 AM
So what are Sarkozy's odds of survival? Maybe 1/5 or something like that?

1%.  And I'm being generous there just because the PS is guaranteed to take the wrong strategy to winning, i.e. let's run to not lose, which is the only way of losing.  A competent party and candidate would be 100% assured of election in this type of "Mickey Mouse" struggle.

I'm tempted to also say that the PS chances in 2017 are somewhere around 1% also, but that is unnecessary dick-waving.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Insula Dei on April 23, 2012, 06:28:46 AM
Btw, I thought Melenchon's speech yesterday struck most of the right notes from the perspective of getting rid of Sarkozy. 'Fight without asking anything in return, only the privilege of being able to fight.' That attitude should probably guarantee a quite easy transfer of support towards Hollande.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: danny on April 23, 2012, 07:34:13 AM
Results in Israel (7,196 total votes):

Sarkozy: 82.74%
Hollande: 7.62%
MLP: 3.99%


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Insula Dei on April 23, 2012, 09:20:20 AM
Results in Israel (7,196 total votes):

Sarkozy: 82.74%
Hollande: 7.62%
MLP: 3.99%

Who would those voters be? Mostly French Jews living in Israel but not (yet) naturalized, or just the usual expat population? Those numbers make me sort of suspect the former.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 23, 2012, 09:45:36 AM
Results by (new) constituency

()

It's a real pity I have an exam tomorrow (in macroeconomics, no less) and that I start work on April 30, but I'll try to have some stats up soon. In any case, Geoclip's greatness will allow me to be lazy and steal their maps.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 23, 2012, 10:15:36 AM
I've heard it said that Panzergirl's voters are considered most likely to sit out the second round. How much to this is there?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 23, 2012, 10:18:48 AM
Where can you see how the Austrian French people voted ?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 23, 2012, 10:23:20 AM
Where can you see how the Austrian French people voted ?

For that matter, where can you find out how other countries voted?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 23, 2012, 11:01:45 AM
More maps!

Daddy's Girl compared to Daddy in 2002 (about +1.04% nationally)

()

Marchais' Imitation compared to the Garden Dwarf in 1995 (+2.38% nationally)

()

Next up: Poison Dwarf in 2007 and 2012.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: politicus on April 23, 2012, 11:06:28 AM
Anybody got some info on the areas where Panzergirl did worse than Daddy? What is the likely explanation?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 23, 2012, 11:09:09 AM
Is there a link to the constituency results?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 23, 2012, 11:23:42 AM
Vélizy results :

Sarko 33.85%
Hollande 26.64%
Le Pen 13.27%
Bayrou 10.71%
Mélenchon 9.33%
Joly 2.34%
Dupont-Aignan 2.08%
Poutou 1.01%
Arthaud 0.39%
Cheminade 0.37%

Yep, it still sucks.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 23, 2012, 11:25:28 AM
Results by (new) constituency

()

It's a real pity I have an exam tomorrow (in macroeconomics, no less) and that I start work on April 30, but I'll try to have some stats up soon. In any case, Geoclip's greatness will allow me to be lazy and steal their maps.

I assume Hollande won a majority of them ? I'm curious to know how many though.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 23, 2012, 11:32:25 AM

I don't have the book in front of me at the moment, but something like:

A - Farming households, B - Rural households generally, C - Urban households.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 23, 2012, 11:36:34 AM
Anybody got some info on the areas where Panzergirl did worse than Daddy? What is the likely explanation?

Two main things:

a. Urban areas or increasingly suburban areas - almost all of them. Since 1984, the FN vote has moved away from the downtown cores of all cities and has become very much of an exurban/rural vote. White flight/immigration, high property prices, boboisation all explain why the FN has gradually declined in cities. This is, of course, very clear in Paris but it likely explains Rhone/Ain/Loire, Alsace, Haute-Garonne, Herault and potentially Isere.
b. In a few cases, those spots where the 2002ish FN vote was fairly well-off of the CSP+ socioprofessional categories. Sarko stole all of them in 2007, apparently he kept a few of his 2007 gains with the most well-off/CSP+ FN voters. Likely explains Alpes-Maritimes.

I'll need to look at cantonal results in Savoie to see what happened there. Probably factor a.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 23, 2012, 11:59:47 AM
In metro France/Corsica by canton, there is a strong positive correlation of 0.466 between the percentage of ouvriers and the vote for Panzergirl. There is a similar 0.475 correlation between the percentage of ouvriers+employees ('salariat modeste') and the vote for Panzergirl. In 2007, the correlation between ouvrier and Daddy was 0.471, in 2002 it was only 0.237.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 23, 2012, 12:07:02 PM
Where can you see how the Austrian French people voted ?

For that matter, where can you find out how other countries voted?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 23, 2012, 12:09:18 PM
Cantonal version of the FN 2002 vs. 2012 map:

()


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 23, 2012, 12:09:54 PM
Where can you see how the Austrian French people voted ?

For that matter, where can you find out how other countries voted?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: danny on April 23, 2012, 12:22:50 PM
Results in Israel (7,196 total votes):

Sarkozy: 82.74%
Hollande: 7.62%
MLP: 3.99%

Who would those voters be? Mostly French Jews living in Israel but not (yet) naturalized, or just the usual expat population? Those numbers make me sort of suspect the former.

I don't know but I was assuming so, especially since there were over 49,000 eligible voters so it was only 15% turnout.
Also note that this does not include Jerusalem (which had a polling place) which has a sizable population of French immigrants, since France doesn't recognize Jerusalem as being part of Israel.

PS, are naturalized Israelis ineligible to vote in these elections?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: DL on April 23, 2012, 12:27:09 PM
I wonder how French citizens in Canada voted. There is a very large French community in Montreal now...I suspect they are mostly pretty left-leaning.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: tpfkaw on April 23, 2012, 12:31:37 PM
So it looks like Le Pen lost votes in conservative areas and gained in leftist areas?  Makes sense.


Title: Hollande appealing to the "Niggas in Paris."
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 23, 2012, 12:39:48 PM
Uhhhhh...wow - http://pate.blogs.france24.com/article/2012/04/11/francois-hollande-jay-z-kanye-west-niggas-paris-campaign-video-france-elec-0 (http://pate.blogs.france24.com/article/2012/04/11/francois-hollande-jay-z-kanye-west-niggas-paris-campaign-video-france-elec-0)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: ZuWo on April 23, 2012, 12:50:55 PM
I haven't found a direct link to the results, but here's what the Swiss press has to say about how French citizens in Switzerland voted:

(Voters: 49 522, Turnout: 46%)

Sarkozy 41.75%
Hollande 20.19%
Bayrou 14.76%
Mélenchon 7.33%
Le Pen 7.17%
Joly 5.35%

http://www.rts.ch/info/suisse/3943008-les-francais-de-suisse-ont-massivement-vote-sarkozy.html (ftp://http://www.rts.ch/info/suisse/3943008-les-francais-de-suisse-ont-massivement-vote-sarkozy.html)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 23, 2012, 01:00:17 PM
Ahhh, the French Embassy in Austria has the results of Austrian-French voters:

HOLLANDE François         32,12%
SARKOZY Nicolas         28,09%
BAYROU François         15,49%
JOLY Eva                         10,27%
MELENCHON Jean-Luc     8,68%
LE PEN Marine                   2,77%
DUPONT-AIGNAN Nicolas 1,06%
POUTOU Philippe           0,61%
CHEMINADE Jacques       0,53%
ARTHAUD Nathalie           0,37%

Good result for Joly !

http://www.ambafrance-at.org/Resultats-du-premier-tour-de-l


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on April 23, 2012, 01:15:26 PM
Ireland (on what looks like a less than 20% turnout):

http://www.ambafrance-ie.org/Presidential-election-First-round (http://www.ambafrance-ie.org/Presidential-election-First-round)

JOLY Eva   149
LE PEN Marine   84
SARKOZY Nicolas   514
MELENCHON Jean-Luc   210
POUTOU Philippe   18
ARTHAUD Nathalie   7
CHEMINADE Jacques   8
BAYROU François   293
DUPONT-AIGNAN Nicolas   45
HOLLANDE François   617

Joly beat Le Pen, at least.

Also found the total votes for Francais De L'etranger:

Mme Eva JOLY   21 947    5,44
Mme Marine LE PEN   23 995    5,95
M. Nicolas SARKOZY   153 301    38,00
M. Jean-Luc MÉLENCHON   33 503    8,31
M. Philippe POUTOU   2 843    0,70
Mme Nathalie ARTHAUD   1 137    0,28
M. Jacques CHEMINADE   1 457    0,36
M. François BAYROU   45 867    11,37
M. Nicolas DUPONT-AIGNAN   5 148    1,28
M. François HOLLANDE   114 197    28,31

Sarkozy comfortable winner abroad it seems. See: http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/PR2012/000/099/index.html (http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/PR2012/000/099/index.html)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on April 23, 2012, 01:28:14 PM
So what are Sarkozy's odds of survival? Maybe 1/5 or something like that?

1%.  And I'm being generous there just because the PS is guaranteed to take the wrong strategy to winning, i.e. let's run to not lose, which is the only way of losing.  A competent party and candidate would be 100% assured of election in this type of "Mickey Mouse" struggle.

I'm tempted to also say that the PS chances in 2017 are somewhere around 1% also, but that is unnecessary dick-waving.

Given that, as of yet, I have felt no need to stock up on food and vegetables despite your previous prognostications on the European crisis, may I have your permission to take your predictions with a grain of salt?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 23, 2012, 01:37:46 PM
So, then. Context and all that.

Hollande polled 28.6%. This is the highest for a PS candidate since Mitterrand's 34.1% in 1988 and is the second highest (again, behind 1988) for a PS/SFIO/Etc candidate when there's been hard left competition on the ballot. It is also the highest for a challenging candidate since Mitterrand in 1974 (when he polled 43.2%, with the assistance of the Commies).

Sarkozy polled 27.2%. This is the second lowest ever polled by an incumbent (Chirac only managed his usual fifth of the poll in 2002). The complexities of the French Right make further comparisons a little tricky. Still, it's notable that the combined score of Sarkozy and Bayrou (36.3%) is about the same as the combined score of Chirac and Barre in 1988 (36.5)%. This is not especially encouraging for the Poison Dwarf for obvious reasons.

Le Pen polled 17.9%. As has been extensively reported, this is the FN's highest ever total in a Presidential election. The increase on 2007 is huge, needless to say. The difference between 2012 and 2002 is less stunning (at 1.04%) than initial exit polls indicated, though pointing that out feels like straw-clutching.

Mélenchon polled 11.1%. While this was not as high as shown by the polls, it is still the best Communist/Fellow Traveller result since Marchais took 15.3% in 1981. Together, Le Pen and Mélenchon polled 29%, which is a massive anti-system vote no matter how you cut it. This is also the first time that a 'Communist' candidate has finished above the designative 'Centrist' candidate of record. Seriously.

Bayrou polled 9.1%. This is (just about) less than half of what he polled in 2007, but still higher than he managed in 2002 (6.8%). Still, it's the second lowest total ever polled by the designated 'Centrist' candidate.

Joly polled 2.3%. This is on the low side for Green Presidential candidates, but higher than Voynet in 2007.

There were other candidates as well, of course.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Andrea on April 23, 2012, 02:03:32 PM
FWIW, here's expats results from 2007
http://www.assemblee-afe.fr/IMG/pdf/PR_tour1_2007_V2.pdf
http://www.assemblee-afe.fr/IMG/pdf/MAE_Resultats_2eme_tour.pdf

Le Figaro reported the aggregate for the new North Europe parliamentary constituency: Sarkozy 33.56% Hollande 32.28%, Bayrou 13.9% Melenchon 7.5% Joly 6.9% Le Pen 3.3%


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on April 23, 2012, 03:11:48 PM
I'm not really well versed in French politics. Why/how did Le Pen do so well?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 23, 2012, 03:49:14 PM
So, then. Context and all that.

Hollande polled 28.6%. This is the highest for a PS candidate since Mitterrand's 34.1% in 1988 and is the second highest (again, behind 1988) for a PS/SFIO/Etc candidate when there's been hard left competition on the ballot. It is also the highest for a challenging candidate since Mitterrand in 1974 (when he polled 43.2%, with the assistance of the Commies).

Sarkozy polled 27.2%. This is the second lowest ever polled by an incumbent (Chirac only managed his usual fifth of the poll in 2002). The complexities of the French Right make further comparisons a little tricky. Still, it's notable that the combined score of Sarkozy and Bayrou (36.3%) is about the same as the combined score of Chirac and Barre in 1988 (36.5)%. This is not especially encouraging for the Poison Dwarf for obvious reasons.

Le Pen polled 17.9%. As has been extensively reported, this is the FN's highest ever total in a Presidential election. The increase on 2007 is huge, needless to say. The difference between 2012 and 2002 is less stunning (at 1.04%) than initial exit polls indicated, though pointing that out feels like straw-clutching.

Mélenchon polled 11.1%. While this was not as high as shown by the polls, it is still the best Communist/Fellow Traveller result since Marchais took 15.3% in 1981. Together, Le Pen and Mélenchon polled 29%, which is a massive anti-system vote no matter how you cut it. This is also the first time that a 'Communist' candidate has finished above the designative 'Centrist' candidate of record. Seriously.

Bayrou polled 9.1%. This is (just about) less than half of what he polled in 2007, but still higher than he managed in 2002 (6.8%). Still, it's the second lowest total ever polled by the designated 'Centrist' candidate.

Joly polled 2.3%. This is on the low side for Green Presidential candidates, but higher than Voynet in 2007.

There were other candidates as well, of course.

This is a very useful and informative post. You should just have added that the combined total of the far-left candidates (taken as the three Troskyst outfits) is at its lowest since 1969. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: rob in cal on April 23, 2012, 04:04:52 PM
Do we have a breakdown of the voting intentions of the Melenchon and Joly voters in the second round. Of course the vast majority will be for Hollande, but I'm wondering just how strong for him.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 23, 2012, 04:27:36 PM
Just looking at the map. Assuming western Paris is very much like Cities of London and Westminster constituency?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on April 23, 2012, 04:37:15 PM
It's very wealthy. Old money, similar to Westminster, I suppose.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 23, 2012, 04:47:49 PM
New map!

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Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 23, 2012, 06:54:30 PM
lolvendee


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: adma on April 23, 2012, 07:31:22 PM
I'm having problems accessing Le Monde on my computer; any useful alternatives?  (Oh, and anything with scaleable maps of communes?)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 23, 2012, 08:05:06 PM
I'm having problems accessing Le Monde on my computer; any useful alternatives?  (Oh, and anything with scaleable maps of communes?)

There is, inevitably, google: http://www.google.com/elections/ed/fr/results

And also the official site here: http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/PR2012/index.html


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: adma on April 23, 2012, 08:09:22 PM
For this particular purpose, Google doesn't work for me either (unfortunately, I'm not in a position to upgrade to Google Chrome, which may also explain my Le Monde problems).  As for the official site; unfortunately, sans maps, it's a cumbersome devil to navigate...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 23, 2012, 08:28:26 PM
How about this one: http://www.publicsenat.fr/lcp/politique/carte-des-elections-presidentielles


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: adma on April 23, 2012, 10:27:53 PM
How about this one: http://www.publicsenat.fr/lcp/politique/carte-des-elections-presidentielles

That one worked.  (Thanks.)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: So rightwing that I broke the Political Compass! on April 24, 2012, 05:01:59 AM
Perhaps most notable- the young are the most conservative generation in France except for those over 60.

Any information on voting by ethnicity and religion?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Colbert on April 24, 2012, 01:06:38 PM
I have to admit i had sh**ting a lot. So, i will not made no one prevision and only bring maps (i have even made a cheminade map^^)

see you tomorrow folks


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 24, 2012, 04:43:41 PM
Currently working on some pretty candidate maps. Not sure when they'll be up, mind.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Leftbehind on April 24, 2012, 06:05:45 PM
Perhaps most notable- the young are the most conservative generation in France except for those over 60.

Well it's certainly true that they're not as left-leaning as you might expect, but the Others are all important to make that assumption. A say, higher vote for Green/Trotskyists in the young, appear in that graph in such a way as if they were a force of the Right. Although I wouldn't be surprised if it were true - another reason to hate my generation.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 24, 2012, 07:19:33 PM
()


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Leftbehind on April 24, 2012, 08:28:44 PM
Beautiful. :)

I was surprised at how good a job Google were doing at collating and mapping the results, but when colouring the parties shares, you couldn't see the variation above whatsoever for the main two.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 25, 2012, 03:56:22 AM
Thank you Al. If only I hadn't been so busy until yesterday (and so tired since then) I would have done some maps as well.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: So rightwing that I broke the Political Compass! on April 25, 2012, 07:48:14 AM
Perhaps most notable- the young are the most conservative generation in France except for those over 60.

Any information on voting by ethnicity and religion?
Also, look at the voting by class. National Front does best among the working class(ouvrier), but steadily declines as you move up the income ladder... until you reach the upperclass(artisan, commercant, chef d'enterprise), where NF registers it's second best performance.

Also notably the upperclass registers 0% support for minor parties. And the fact that Bayrou does badly among them... I'd have thought he's precisely the kind of socially liberal establishmentarian that would appeal to them.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 25, 2012, 07:53:34 AM
New OpinionWay survey for the 2nd round:

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Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 25, 2012, 07:56:47 AM
Still not over for Sarkozy, but it looks bleaker for him every day ... :)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 25, 2012, 08:28:33 AM
If anybody is interested, given that I have five days off, I can throw some constituency maps for each candidate together.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: homelycooking on April 25, 2012, 08:57:10 AM
If anybody is interested, given that I have five days off, I can throw some constituency maps for each candidate together.

You thought we'd say, "No, Hash, don't bother"? ;D

I look forward to it (and I'll have a nice map of my own to post soon...)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on April 25, 2012, 08:58:20 AM
What's up with Sarkozy doing better among women? Am I the only one that finds that strange, never heard of a country before where the right didn't do better among men and the left better among women? Is it a common thing in France, and in that case are there any know demographic reasons for it?

If anybody is interested, given that I have five days off, I can throw some constituency maps for each candidate together.

Yeah that'd be very itresting to see.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on April 25, 2012, 09:09:31 AM
never heard of a country before where the right didn't do better among men and the left better among women?

The UK (traditionally).


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 25, 2012, 09:31:29 AM
What's up with Sarkozy doing better among women? Am I the only one that finds that strange, never heard of a country before where the right didn't do better among men and the left better among women? Is it a common thing in France, and in that case are there any know demographic reasons for it?

In France, there hasn't been a significant difference since the 1980s (before, the right was stronger among women). The only notable difference is that extremist parties are weaker among women.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 25, 2012, 09:47:16 AM
If anybody is interested, given that I have five days off, I can throw some constituency maps for each candidate together.

Oh yeah !

And please free the Official Thread now ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Leftbehind on April 25, 2012, 09:53:46 AM
never heard of a country before where the right didn't do better among men and the left better among women?

The UK (traditionally).

Took the words right out my mouth! I'm sure there are other examples as well.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 25, 2012, 11:28:43 AM
Im sure Royal did better among women, no?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: rob in cal on April 25, 2012, 11:36:44 AM
I thought the rule of thumb was that in historically Catholic countries right leaning parties did better with women than men.  IIRC the left was against women's suffrage in France the right for it in the years before its final adoption.
     One stat among the vote intentions of the losing candidates says it all.  Melenchons voters are going 91 to 2 for Hollande, only 7% abstentions.  That kind of near unanimous left wing unity can't be good for Sarko.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 25, 2012, 11:39:06 AM
Im sure Royal did better among women, no?

Yepp:

http://www.ipsos.fr/ipsos-public-affairs/sondages/2nd-tour-presidentielle-2007-comprendre-vote-francais#2


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 25, 2012, 11:41:03 AM
I thought the rule of thumb was that in historically Catholic countries right leaning parties did better with women than men.  IIRC the left was against women's suffrage in France the right for it in the years before its final adoption.
     One stat among the vote intentions of the losing candidates says it all.  Melenchons voters are going 91 to 2 for Hollande, only 7% abstentions.  That kind of near unanimous left wing unity can't be good for Sarko.

Not in Austria, which can be considered a Catholic country. Here. the FPÖ has the most support among young men, while young women mostly vote Green. In general, if you combine ÖVP/FPÖ/BZÖ about 60% of men vote for them while only 55% of women vote for them.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 25, 2012, 12:09:38 PM

Also, look at the voting by class. National Front does best among the working class(ouvrier), but steadily declines as you move up the income ladder... until you reach the upperclass(artisan, commercant, chef d'enterprise), where NF registers it's second best performance.

Also notably the upperclass registers 0% support for minor parties. And the fact that Bayrou does badly among them... I'd have thought he's precisely the kind of socially liberal establishmentarian that would appeal to them.
The self-employed are not, primarily, upperclass people. Especially not by attitude.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 25, 2012, 12:13:21 PM
The artisans, commercants category is way more of a petite bourgeoisie than an affluent liberal European upper/upper-middle class. The ones who come closest to such an attitude are the cadres/professions liberales.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: DL on April 25, 2012, 12:19:26 PM
never heard of a country before where the right didn't do better among men and the left better among women?

The UK (traditionally).

Took the words right out my mouth! I'm sure there are other examples as well.

I find it weird also...in Canada we certainly see the NDP and Liberals doing much better with women and the Tories are definitely the men's party (esp. old men). It makes sense that woman would tend to favour parties on the left - women are much more likely to work in the public sector (ie: nurses, teachers, civil servants), they tend to be much more concerned with proper funding of education and health care and social services etc... and woman tend not to like militaristic "law and order" rhetoric from rightwing parties...

It actually surprises me that in the UK and France the gender gap is as narrow as it is - in the UK in particular i would have thought that woman would be disproptionately hit by all the draconians cuts to social programs by the Cameron government

Any explanation?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 25, 2012, 12:26:27 PM
It takes a very shallow political divide to create a sizable gender gap, as where the differences are starker, families tend to vote for the same camp.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 25, 2012, 01:00:16 PM
Utterly random observations:

Hollande won the Marquesas. The patterns in Polynesia cannot, I think, be explained by racial polarization, with Tahiti not voting far different from the remainder (though Le Pen is stronger and Hollande weaker). Nor does there seem to be a turnout gap. Huge random variations between one atoll and the next.

Somewhere early in this thread someone mentioned that Joly won a tiny village (Trémargat) in inland Cote d'Armor - she did so with 29%, with Mélenchon second on 27%. And the next village to the north (Peumerit-Quintin), she tied Hollande and Le Pen with 20 votes each out of 102, with Mélenchon on 19. What the hell is that?

Also, what's with Mélenchon's strength in the Alpes d'Haute Provence, mostly the tiny villages. I never had that down as a Commie stronghold.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bacon King on April 25, 2012, 01:39:04 PM
Somewhere early in this thread someone mentioned that Joly won a tiny village (Trémargat) in inland Cote d'Armor - she did so with 29%, with Mélenchon second on 27%. And the next village to the north (Peumerit-Quintin), she tied Hollande and Le Pen with 20 votes each out of 102, with Mélenchon on 19. What the hell is that?

Hippies (http://fr.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Trémargat#G.C3.A9ographie_et_.C3.A9conomie).



Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 25, 2012, 01:44:55 PM
Tremargat seems to be a hippie commune. Significantly younger than surrounding areas, a bit more educated and Wikipedia describes it as having all that eco-friendly stuff associated with ruralish hippie communes. According to Google searches, there's also some recreational park nearby (http://www.loisirs-tremargat.com/). It seems to have been voting Green for quite sometime: Voynet in 1995 (23%), Mamere (29.7% + 13.2% for Lepage), 2004 regionals (38%), 2009 (51.9%) and 2010 (58.8%). And Bove got 26.5% there in 2007. It's part of a neo-rural phenomenon which, afaik, explains the tendency for there to be a lot of Green-voting communes in the Drome and Ardeche.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 25, 2012, 01:51:42 PM
Drome? Ardèche? Hadn't looked at those yet.

Holy shmoking cojones.

Vachères en Quint: Mélenchon 53%, Joly 21%, Arthaud 5%. Out of 19 voters, mind - Hollande is on 0. :) (3 votes for Sarko and 1 for Bayrou).

Or, Saint Andéol: Mélenchon 31%, Le Pen 20%, Joly 16%. Out of 45 votes this time.

And yeah, there's one for Joly: Rioms. 18 votes. Joly 8, Mélenchon 6, Poutou 2, Sarkozy 1, Bayrou 1.

Smaller than the Breton places, of course, which being Breton are real villages with over a hundred votes still.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 25, 2012, 01:54:01 PM
Well, in the 2010 regionals and obviously the 2009 Euros, there are a ton of Green-voting municipalities in the Drome and Ardeche.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 25, 2012, 01:58:01 PM
Well, in the 2010 regionals and obviously the 2009 Euros, there are a ton of Green-voting municipalities in the Drome and Ardeche.
One would figure. Mélenchon got a lot of those votes this time round.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Leftbehind on April 25, 2012, 02:04:13 PM
never heard of a country before where the right didn't do better among men and the left better among women?

The UK (traditionally).

Took the words right out my mouth! I'm sure there are other examples as well.

I find it weird also...in Canada we certainly see the NDP and Liberals doing much better with women and the Tories are definitely the men's party (esp. old men). It makes sense that woman would tend to favour parties on the left - women are much more likely to work in the public sector (ie: nurses, teachers, civil servants), they tend to be much more concerned with proper funding of education and health care and social services etc... and woman tend not to like militaristic "law and order" rhetoric from rightwing parties...

It actually surprises me that in the UK and France the gender gap is as narrow as it is - in the UK in particular i would have thought that woman would be disproptionately hit by all the draconians cuts to social programs by the Cameron government

Any explanation?

Note the "(traditionally)" in the quote - there's evidence to suggest the current government's broke the Tory leads over Labour among women.
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Read more here: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/4122


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: homelycooking on April 25, 2012, 02:14:33 PM
Somewhere early in this thread someone mentioned that Joly won a tiny village (Trémargat) in inland Cote d'Armor - she did so with 29%, with Mélenchon second on 27%. And the next village to the north (Peumerit-Quintin), she tied Hollande and Le Pen with 20 votes each out of 102, with Mélenchon on 19. What the hell is that?

Hippies (http://fr.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Trémargat#G.C3.A9ographie_et_.C3.A9conomie).

There's also the commune of Éourres in Hautes-Alpes that seems to be the French equivalent of Woodstock, NY: it voted 42% for Joly and 50% for Bové in '07. It was a Mamère-Besancenot tie in '02. The UMP vote declined from 8% to 5% over '07-'12 - but Chirac got zero votes in '02. ;D

It looks like it's the site of some sort of artist colony or commune (in the American sense)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 25, 2012, 02:15:48 PM
Unless there's credible evidence of a consistent (and meaningful!) gender gap, 'tis best to ignore poll breakdowns that touch on the matter.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 25, 2012, 02:23:41 PM
Somewhere early in this thread someone mentioned that Joly won a tiny village (Trémargat) in inland Cote d'Armor - she did so with 29%, with Mélenchon second on 27%. And the next village to the north (Peumerit-Quintin), she tied Hollande and Le Pen with 20 votes each out of 102, with Mélenchon on 19. What the hell is that?

Hippies (http://fr.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Trémargat#G.C3.A9ographie_et_.C3.A9conomie).

There's also the commune of Éourres in Hautes-Alpes that seems to be the French equivalent of Woodstock, NY: it voted 42% for Joly and 50% for Bové in '07. It was a Mamère-Besancenot tie in '02. The UMP vote declined from 8% to 5% over '07-'12 - but Chirac got zero votes in '02. ;D

It looks like it's the site of some sort of artist colony or commune (in the American sense)

Great find! Hadn't ever noticed that one. The profile of the town is pretty amusing: http://www.franceelectorale.com/ville/eourres-26560


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Colbert on April 25, 2012, 03:16:15 PM
()
"bastion" (I don"t remember the english word for that) of each candidate. Don't be surprised to not have a lot of blue departments : it's because the sarkozy vote is less concentrate than the others.

color key : red : mélenchon ; pink : hollande ; orange : bayrou ; blue : sarkozy ; "bonapartist green" : MLP
methodology : best % of each candidate compare to metropolitan result


()
right-wing departments (sarkozy, NDA, MLP)
methodology : quartile (not based on the national score level, but by division of the 96 departments in 4 quarters : in blue, the 1° to 24° best results, in light blue : the 25° to 48° best results, in pink, 49 to 72 results and in red, the worst results

(this methodology and color key is the same for all the next maps)


()
left-wing departments (hollande, mélenchon, arthaud, poutou, joly)

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"government parties" map (hollande, bayrou, sarkozy) aka the "reasonable france map"


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hollandist france

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sarkozyst france

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marinist france

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melenchonist france (as opposite to a lot of analysis made, this map show than melenchonist vote is very near to traditionnal PCF map vote, specially Marchais 1981 vote map)


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bayrou's france (the problem of bayrou is that his words of "center-center man" is in opposition with is geographic pattern : the bayrou map is the ARCHTYPE of the eternal french right map, especially in catholic areas)

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Norwegian postmenopausal france

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NDA france (the same as Villierist france)

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arthaudist france

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poutouist france (strange map, very few from chaban-delmas 1974 map -a centrist-gaullist candidate, and very few to occupate zone of france in 1940-1942)

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lyndonlarouchist france


***********************************************


()

left vs right (this map not include bayrou and cheminade)


()
same map, but most affined
blue : right +10 points above total left
light blue : right, less 10 points above total left
pink : left, less 10 points above total right
red : left, +10 points above total right


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Gustaf on April 26, 2012, 02:58:05 AM
Ok, I'm also intrigued now, since I, too, always assumed that women vote more left in all Western countries. Why is this not the case in the UK and France?

I have a vague feeling that working class women may be more socially conservative in some contexts but that seems like an unlikely explanation here.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 26, 2012, 03:44:15 AM
Ok, I'm also intrigued now, since I, too, always assumed that women vote more left in all Western countries. Why is this not the case in the UK and France?

I have a vague feeling that working class women may be more socially conservative in some contexts but that seems like an unlikely explanation here.

Is there a strong divide in Sweden as well ?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on April 26, 2012, 05:01:59 AM
Ok, I'm also intrigued now, since I, too, always assumed that women vote more left in all Western countries. Why is this not the case in the UK and France?

I have a vague feeling that working class women may be more socially conservative in some contexts but that seems like an unlikely explanation here.

Is there a strong divide in Sweden as well ?

It's not nearly as strong as the US one, though it's clearly there.

The 2010 the devide looked like this: (according to exit polls) 

Red-Greens: 44% (all) - 48% (women) - 41% (men)
Alliance: 49% (all) - 46% (women) - 52% (men)



Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: tpfkaw on April 26, 2012, 09:18:22 AM
Women are more likely to want to stick with the status quo, men are more likely to want to change it.  In most Western countries the "anti-status quo" parties are the rightist ones, but in France and to a lesser extent the UK they're the leftist ones.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: DL on April 26, 2012, 09:26:43 AM
Its hard to see how the Cameron government in the UK represents any sort of "status quo" with their draconian cuts to public services and tax cuts for the rich etc...When you look at who is most negatively impacted their policies - the Tories in the UK deserve to polling about 20 points lower among woman than among man!


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 26, 2012, 11:53:21 AM
There's something really quite old school about the Midi focus of Mélenchon's support, isn't there? Even if not exactly in terms of details.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 26, 2012, 11:54:12 AM
Sarko gets the VGE endorsement for what it's worth (I'm guessing not much?)

http://www.leparisien.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/valery-giscard-d-estaing-pourquoi-je-voterai-sarkozy-26-04-2012-1972652.php


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 26, 2012, 11:56:49 AM
Sarko gets the VGE endorsement for what it's worth (I'm guessing not much?)

http://www.leparisien.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/valery-giscard-d-estaing-pourquoi-je-voterai-sarkozy-26-04-2012-1972652.php

I wonder how many French will think "wait, he's still alive ?" when hearing about this. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Andrea on April 26, 2012, 12:10:30 PM
Here's expats results by country,sub-area,bureau de vote

http://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/fr/IMG/pdf/Resultats_provisoires_des_votes_des_Francais_etablis_hors_de_France_au_1er_tour_de_l_election_presidentielle_cle83f26f.pdf

There are also totals by new parliamentary constituencies
http://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/fr/les-francais-a-l-etranger/elections-2012-votez-a-l-etranger/election-presidentielle/article/resultats-provisoires-des-votes


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 26, 2012, 12:39:51 PM
I do so love the utterly predictable geographical patterns wrt French voters on the north bank of the Mor Breizh.

Also: does anyone have a link to constituency results for the mainland?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 26, 2012, 12:54:17 PM
Sarkozy is probably toast:

With 10 days to go, Hollande leads 55-45.

http://www.tns-sofres.com/_assets/files/2012.04.26-iv12.pdf


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: LastVoter on April 26, 2012, 02:07:58 PM
Canada :) Surprised how right-wing the rest of the voters are though.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 26, 2012, 02:24:31 PM
Quote
Le Front national est un parti autorisé à se présenter et qui conteste un certain nombre de valeurs de la République

Quote from Francois. Please tell me i'm understanding that wrong...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: DL on April 26, 2012, 03:01:30 PM
Interesting that Sarkozy got over 80% of the vote from French citizens living in Monaco!


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Insula Dei on April 26, 2012, 03:03:09 PM
Quote
Le Front national est un parti autorisé à se présenter et qui conteste un certain nombre de valeurs de la République

Quote from Francois. Please tell me i'm understanding that wrong...

I would like to know how you understand it, because it doesn't seem all that controversial a quote to me.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 26, 2012, 03:05:50 PM
Quote
Le Front national est un parti autorisé à se présenter et qui conteste un certain nombre de valeurs de la République

Quote from Francois. Please tell me i'm understanding that wrong...

I would like to know how you understand it, because it doesn't seem all that controversial a quote to me.

The FN is a party which has the right to present itself and which contests some Republican values.

Sounds like praise to me... if i've understood.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Insula Dei on April 26, 2012, 03:09:21 PM
I'm feeling like putting my neck out in an area where there are numerous native speakers of French around: 'Contester' here means something like: 'to attack, to bring into question'.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on April 26, 2012, 03:31:33 PM
I don't see any problem.
The FN is a legal party. TRUE
The FN is not in agreement with some republican values. Debatable, but from the mainstream view, TRUE.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on April 26, 2012, 04:40:27 PM
Canada :) Surprised how right-wing the rest of the voters are though.

The reason why Canada votes different become ridiculously obvious when you look at the breakdown...

P.S: Does anyone have a blank map of the world? I'd like to do a map of this.

Perhaps most curious spot: Panzergirl won the all-important country of South Sudan with a whopping 4 votes. I wonder what those voters are like...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: LastVoter on April 26, 2012, 04:51:53 PM
Canada :) Surprised how right-wing the rest of the voters are though.

The reason why Canada votes different become ridiculously obvious when you look at the breakdown...

P.S: Does anyone have a blank map of the world? I'd like to do a map of this.

Perhaps most curious spot: Panzergirl won the all-important country of South Sudan with a whopping 4 votes. I wonder what those voters are like...

It's still nice to know that there is a significant left-leaning area in North America.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 26, 2012, 04:53:17 PM
What? These are French nationals voting.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on April 26, 2012, 04:53:30 PM
Canada :) Surprised how right-wing the rest of the voters are though.

The reason why Canada votes different become ridiculously obvious when you look at the breakdown...

P.S: Does anyone have a blank map of the world? I'd like to do a map of this.

Perhaps most curious spot: Panzergirl won the all-important country of South Sudan with a whopping 4 votes. I wonder what those voters are like...

It's still nice to know that there is a significant left-leaning area in North America.

It nicely fits into the cliches I've heard about french voters in English speaking countries...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: LastVoter on April 26, 2012, 04:55:22 PM
Hmm I only know two brothers who's parents are french. The younger brother hates Left-wingers, the older one voted Nader iirc.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 26, 2012, 05:17:48 PM
Just looking through posts from around this time last year. Some of our predictions about Candidate Hollande and the election in general are hilarious.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 26, 2012, 05:25:59 PM
Well, in the 2010 regionals and obviously the 2009 Euros, there are a ton of Green-voting municipalities in the Drome and Ardeche.
One would figure. Mélenchon got a lot of those votes this time round.

Think also about the numerous nuclear and chemical plants along the Rhône.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Insula Dei on April 26, 2012, 05:27:10 PM

Perhaps most curious spot: Panzergirl won the all-important country of South Sudan with a whopping 4 votes. I wonder what those voters are like...

You wouldn't want to know.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on April 26, 2012, 05:30:03 PM

Perhaps most curious spot: Panzergirl won the all-important country of South Sudan with a whopping 4 votes. I wonder what those voters are like...

You wouldn't want to know.

I suspect that probably to be the case, but it is a curiosity none-the-less. Hollande won most African countries.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 27, 2012, 06:52:03 AM
Quote
Le Front national est un parti autorisé à se présenter et qui conteste un certain nombre de valeurs de la République

Quote from Francois. Please tell me i'm understanding that wrong...

I would like to know how you understand it, because it doesn't seem all that controversial a quote to me.

The FN is a party which has the right to present itself and which contests some Republican values.

Sounds like praise to me... if i've understood.

"Contester" means "to oppose", "to question", not "to contest".


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: ObserverIE on April 27, 2012, 08:45:22 AM
Quote
Le Front national est un parti autorisé à se présenter et qui conteste un certain nombre de valeurs de la République

Quote from Francois. Please tell me i'm understanding that wrong...

I would like to know how you understand it, because it doesn't seem all that controversial a quote to me.

The FN is a party which has the right to present itself and which contests some Republican values.

Sounds like praise to me... if i've understood.

"Contester" means "to oppose", "to question", not "to contest".

Actually, the English "contest" can be used in the same sense as "contester" but it's not the most common current usage, e.g. "The disappointed relatives contested the will".


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 27, 2012, 09:40:02 AM
Looks like Sarkozy has stabilized at about 46%.

The problem for him is that Bayrou's voters are now breaking for Hollande by a narrow margin.

Unless there's a big surge for him among Bayrou's and Le Pen's voters, he's done.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 27, 2012, 09:49:21 AM
I reopened the other thread for a reason, you know.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 27, 2012, 04:25:59 PM
Anyways...

There's something really quite old school about the Midi focus of Mélenchon's support, isn't there? Even if not exactly in terms of details.

...thoughts?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 27, 2012, 04:30:29 PM
Anyways...

There's something really quite old school about the Midi focus of Mélenchon's support, isn't there? Even if not exactly in terms of details.

...thoughts?

Don't expect anything from me. I'm still a noob at French political geography. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on April 27, 2012, 04:52:24 PM
Anyways...

There's something really quite old school about the Midi focus of Mélenchon's support, isn't there? Even if not exactly in terms of details.

...thoughts?

I'd also like an explanation for this.

His support among middle-class urban progressives is pretty unparalleled for a truly leftist candidate, no?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 27, 2012, 07:21:52 PM
Ifop poll breaking down results by news media consumption habits. Pretty interesting, if conforming to the stereotypes...

Evening news
20h TF1: Sarko 38, Marion 27, Hollande 17, Bayrou 7, Melenchon 6
20h France2: Hollande 36, Sarko 24, Marion 12, Melenchon 12, Bayrou 11, Joly 2
19-20 France3: Hollande 31, Marion 22, Sarko 17, Melenchon 14, Bayrou 9, Joly 4
Grand Journal: Hollande 38, Sarko 20, Melenchon 14, Bayrou 11, Marion 9, Joly 5
19h45 M6: Marion 25, Sarko 25, Hollande 22, Melenchon 12, Bayrou 8, Poutou 3
24h news channels: Sarko 30, Hollande 30, Marion 17, Melenchon 12, Bayrou 6
Don't watch: Hollande 30, Sarko 19, Marion 14, Melenchon 14, Bayrou 13, Joly 5

Radio:
RTL: Sarko 42, Marion 20, Hollande 20, Bayrou 9, Melenchon 7
Europe1: Sarko 36, Hollande 27, Marion 11, Bayrou 11, Melenchon 9
France Inter: Hollande 48, Melenchon 17, Sarko 13, Bayrou 8, Marion 6, Joly 5
France info: Hollande 31, Sarko 25, Marion 14, Melenchon 13, Bayrou 10, Joly 3
RMC: Hollande 26, Marion 24, Sarko 23, Melenchon 12, Bayrou 9
France Bleue: Sarko 26, Hollande 23, Marion 22, Melenchon 12, Bayrou 9
NRJ: Marion 33, Hollande 27, Sarko 17, Melenchon 11, Bayrou 6, NDA 3
BFM radio: Sarko 36, Hollande 24, Marion 15, Bayrou 12, Melenchon 7
Don't listen to radio: Hollande 29, Sarko 25, Marion 20, Melenchon 11, Bayrou 9, Joly 3

Newspaper
Regional daily: Hollande 31, Sarko 29, Marion 17, Melenchon 10, Bayrou 10
Le Monde: Hollande 45, Sarko 21, Melenchon 13, Bayrou 8, Marion 7, Joly 5
Le Figaro: Sarko 61, Marion 14, Hollande 12, Bayrou 6, Melenchon 5
Le Parisien etc: Hollande 28, Sarko 26, Marion 17, Melenchon 16, Bayrou 8
Libe: Hollande 59, Melenchon 18, Sarko 9, Marion 5, Joly 4, Bayrou 4
Les Echos: Sarko 50, Hollande 22, Bayrou 11, Marion 8, Melenchon 6, Joly 3
L'Humanite: Melenchon 62, Marion 12, Hollande 11, Arthaud 6, Bayrou 3, Joly 2, Sarko 2
La Croix: Sarko 32, Bayrou 29, Hollande 21, Marion 11, Joly 3, Arthaud 2, Melenchon 2
Free newspaper: Hollande 28, Sakro 25, Le Pen 16, Melenchon 15, Bayrou 9
Don't read newspaper: Sarko 26, Hollande 26, Marion 23, Melenchon 10, Bayrou 9, Joly 3

Magazines/weeklies etc
Le Point: Sarko 51, Hollande 20, Bayrou 11, Marion 10, Melenchon 6
Nouvel Obs: Hollande 52, Melenchon 15, Sarko 14, Marion 8, Bayrou 6, Joly 3
Le Figaro Magazine: Sarko 63, Marion 13, Hollande 10, Bayrou 6, Melenchon 6
Marianne: Hollande 52, Melenchon 19, Marion 10, Bayrou 8, Sarko 7, Joly 2
L'Express: Sarko 41, Hollande 23, Marion 14, Bayrou 9, Melenchon 8
Paris Match: Sarko 43, Marion 20, Hollande 16, Bayrou 9, Melenchon 7
Valeurs Actuelles: Sarko 73, Marion 10, Bayrou 7, Hollande 4, NDA 4, Melenchon 2
Don't read magazines etc: Hollande 27, Sarko 25, Marion 22, Melenchon 9, Bayrou 11

A pity they didn't ask for Point de Vue :(


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on April 27, 2012, 07:25:01 PM
I wonder whom these 12% of voters are who read L'Humanité and vote FN.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on April 27, 2012, 09:03:51 PM
As promised, the constituency-level maps for the top 5

Flan

()

Poison Dwarf

()

Panzergirl

()

Angry Commie

()

Bearnese Moron

()


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 28, 2012, 03:51:43 AM
Sarko gets the VGE endorsement for what it's worth (I'm guessing not much?)

http://www.leparisien.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/valery-giscard-d-estaing-pourquoi-je-voterai-sarkozy-26-04-2012-1972652.php

Hollande +1.

Raw vote, net. That's about the degree of relevance Giscard still has. :)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 28, 2012, 03:59:18 AM
Hmmm, French voters in Palestine.

Mélenchon 18, Hollande 17, Sarkozy 8, Bayrou 6, Joly 5, Le Pen 0, others 0.

EDIT: And 59% of the French who voted in India live in Pondi. It figures - only place you can get a baguette (and quite easily too; it's been adopted as part of the local cuisine). And they lean far more left than the French elsewhere in India. Again, it figures (http://www.auroville.org/).


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 28, 2012, 05:19:48 AM
So, basically...

20h France2: Hollande 36, Sarko 24, Marion 12, Melenchon 12, Bayrou 11, Joly 2

Quote
France Inter: Hollande 48, Melenchon 17, Sarko 13, Bayrou 8, Marion 6, Joly 5

Quote
Le Monde: Hollande 45, Sarko 21, Melenchon 13, Bayrou 8, Marion 7, Joly 5

Quote
Marianne: Hollande 52, Melenchon 19, Marion 10, Bayrou 8, Sarko 7, Joly 2

...I'm a living stereotype. :P


Great maps ! :)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 28, 2012, 05:56:02 AM
Avignon?!!!

Anyways, a mystery noticed on the night that do need some addressing: does anyone have any idea what the hell happened in Haute-Loire?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 28, 2012, 06:00:03 AM
You mean the city voting leftish, very unlike its surrounds? Is that a new phenomenon in Avignon; even so it'd be part of a general trend o/c?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 28, 2012, 06:03:26 AM
I think its always been to the left of its surrounds, but the sore thumb effect is a little startling.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 28, 2012, 10:38:57 AM
Great maps, Hash !

How "classical" they are in a way...
We aren't in 2007 any longer...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 28, 2012, 11:49:48 AM
Results for the fifty largest cities in mainland France. Apologies for any errors and inconsistencies, etc:

Paris: Hollande 34.8, Sarkozy 32.2, Mélenchon 11.1, Bayrou 9.3, Le Pen 6.2
Marseille: Hollande 28.1, Sarkozy 26.9, Le Pen 21.2, Mélenchon 13.8, Bayrou 5.5
Lyon: Sarkozy 30.5, Hollande 30.2, Mélenchon 11.8, Bayrou 10.6, Le Pen 9.8
Toulouse: Hollande 34.4, Sarkozy 23.1, Mélenchon 15.9, Le Pen 10.3, Bayrou 9.0
Nice: Sarkozy 34.6, Le Pen 23.0, Hollande 22.4, Mélenchon 9.2, Bayrou 6.3
Nantes: Hollande 31.7, Sarkozy 26.1, Le Pen 12.2, Mélenchon 11.6, Bayrou 11.3
Strasbourg: Hollande 32.1, Sarkozy 27.5, Le Pen 11.9, Mélenchon 11.4, Bayrou 10.4
Montpellier: Hollande 34.9, Sarkozy 21.6, Mélenchon 15.7, Le Pen 13.7, Bayrou 7.4
Bordeaux: Hollande 33.0, Sarkozy 28.7, Mélenchon 12.1, Bayrou 10.9, Le Pen 8.2
Lille: Hollande 35.0, Sarkozy 21.2, Mélenchon 15.4, Le Pen 13.4, Bayrou 8.3
Rennes: Hollande 39.8, Sarkozy 20.9, Mélenchon 13.4, Bayrou 10.5, Le Pen 7.3
Reims: Hollade 30.1, Sarkozy 26.1, Le Pen 18.4, Mélenchon 10.7, Bayrou 9.0
Le Havre: Hollande 30.2, Sarkozy 23.2, Le Pen 17.4, Mélenchon 16.5, Bayrou 7.1
Saint-Étienne: Hollande 32.4, Sarkozy 22.6, Le Pen 17.6, Mélenchon 13.3, Bayrou 8.4
Toulon: Sarkozy 32.2, Le Pen 23.4, Hollande 23.0, Mélenchon 9.5, Bayrou 7.0
Grenoble: Hollande 36.3, Sarkozy 21.3, Mélenchon 15.4, Le Pen 10.9, Bayrou 8.3
Dijon: Hollande 32.4, Sarkozy 27.9, Le Pen 13.4, Mélenchon 10.4, Bayrou 9.7
Angers: Hollande 33.5, Sarkozy 26.9, Bayrou 11.8, Mélenchon 11.1, Le Pen 10.0
Villeurbanne: Hollande 33.8, Sarkozy 24.1, Le Pen 13.4, Mélenchon 12.9, Bayrou 9.2
Le Mans: Hollande 34.5, Sarkozy 23.8, Le Pen 13.4, Mélenchon 12.9, Bayrou 9.4
Aix-en-Provence: Sarkozy 32.8, Hollande 26.8, Le Pen 14.5, Mélenchon 11.2, Bayrou 9.0
Brest: Hollande 37.4, Sarkozy 21.9, Mélenchon 12.5, Le Pen 11.6, Bayrou 9.9
Nîmes: Hollande 27.1, Sarkozy 26.8, Le Pen 20.6, Mélenchon 13.4, Bayrou 7.1
Limoges: Hollande 38.1, Sarkozy 20.7, Le Pen 14.8, Mélenchon 13.2, Bayrou 7.7
Clermont-Ferrand: Hollande 37.8, Sarkozy 19.9, Mélenchon 14.4, Le Pen 12.3, Bayrou 9.4
Tours: Hollande 32.2, Sarkozy 27.0, Mélenchon 12.3, Le Pen 11.6, Bayrou 10.0
Amiens: Hollande 33.7, Sarkozy 22.6, Le Pen 16.5, Mélenchon 13.0, Bayrou 8.4
Metz: Hollande 28.9, Sarkozy 26.7, Le Pen 17.3, Mélenchon 10.9, Bayrou 10.1
Perpignan: Hollande 28.0, Sarkozy 26.5, Le Pen 22.4, Mélenchon 11.5, Bayrou 6.4
Besançon: Hollande 32.8, Sarkozy 24.7, Mélenchon 15.4, Le Pen 11.9, Bayrou 8.5
Orléans: Hollande 32.6, Sarkozy 28.3, Le Pen 12.1, Mélenchon 10.8, Bayrou 9.9
Boulogne-Billancourt: Sarkozy 48.4, Hollande 23.7, Bayrou 10.7, Le Pen 6.5, Mélenchon 6.2
Mulhouse: Hollande 30.8, Sarkozy 26.2, Le Pen 17.5, Mélenchon 10.7, Bayrou 8.9
Rouen: Hollande 33.9, Sarkozy 25.3, Mélenchon 14.0, Le Pen 11.0, Bayrou 9.2
Caen: Hollande 35.1, Sarkozy 25.0, Mélenchon 12.4, Bayrou 10.9, Le Pen 9.4
Nancy: Hollande 31.6, Sarkozy 28.3, Mélenchon 12.0, Bayrou 10.7, Le Pen 10.5
Saint-Denis: Hollande 45.8, Mélenchon 21.7, Sarkozy 12.2, Le Pen 9.9, Bayrou 4.9
Montreuil: Hollande 40.2, Mélenchon 24.1, Sarkozy 13.5., Le Pen 9.3, Bayrou 5.6
Argenteuil: Hollande 38.3, Sarkozy 18.9, Mélenchon 16.4, Le Pen 14.8, Bayrou 6.4
Roubaix: Hollande 41.6, Sarkozy 17.3, Le Pen 15.6, Mélenchon 15.0, Bayrou 5.9
Dunkerque: Hollande 30.8, Le Pen 23.2, Sarkozy 22.5, Mélenchon 11.3, Bayrou 6.5
Tourcoing: Hollande 31.3, Sarkozy 22.4, Le Pen 21.3, Mélenchon 12.7, Bayrou 6.8
Nanterre: Hollande 40.1, Mélenchon 18.6, Sarkozy 17.4, Le Pen 10.7, Bayrou 7.5
Avignon: Hollande 30.8, Sarkozy 23.1, Le Pen 20.5, Mélenchon 13.4, Bayrou 6.4
Créteil: Hollande 39.1, Sarkozy 24.6, Mélenchon 13.6, Le Pen 10.5, Bayrou 6.9
Poitiers: Hollande 37.8, Sarkozy 21.8, Mélenchon 13.7, Le Pen 10.3, Bayrou 9.0
Courbevoie: Sarkozy 39.2, Hollande 28.2, Bayrou 11.8, Le Pen 8.3, Mélenchon 7.5
Versailles: Sarkozy 46.5, Hollande 19.6, Bayrou 12.4, Le Pen 11.2, Mélenchon 5.5
Vitry-sur-Seine: Hollande 37.4, Mélenchon 20.7, Sarkozy 18.1, Le Pen 12.4, Bayrou 6.2
Colombes: Hollande 35.4, Sarkozy 26.1, Mélenchon 13.2, Le Pen 10.1, Bayrou 9.5


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 28, 2012, 11:54:47 AM
Hollande won Marseille and lost Lyon ? Wow, that must be a quite right-wing city...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 28, 2012, 11:58:05 AM
Hollande won Marseille and lost Lyon ? Wow, that must be a quite right-wing city...
Note the FN figures... Lyon is a bourgeois city. Also, of course, there's the issue of Villeurbanne being outside the city limits.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 28, 2012, 11:59:16 AM
Yeah, Lyon has always leaned towards a certain sort of stodgy bourgeois rightwards political stance. Hilarious that Bayrou finished below Mélenchon there, given its political history.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 28, 2012, 12:01:56 PM
Also, with the sad exception of Toulon and the obvious one of Versailles, Hollande wins every place on that list that I've visited.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on April 28, 2012, 01:31:03 PM
Funny than the highest margins for Hollande in Paris suburbs, Limousin and Bretagne.
The last one is quite surprising.
Yes, I know it's swing to the left, but to that point...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 28, 2012, 02:14:14 PM
Funny than the highest margins for Hollande in Paris suburbs, Limousin and Bretagne.
The last one is quite surprising.
Yes, I know it's swing to the left, but to that point...

Looks like Bretagne is France's California. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: adma on April 28, 2012, 03:38:46 PM
Yeah, Lyon has always leaned towards a certain sort of stodgy bourgeois rightwards political stance.

Sort of like Munich relative to Germany.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hans-im-Glück on April 29, 2012, 01:03:10 PM
Yeah, Lyon has always leaned towards a certain sort of stodgy bourgeois rightwards political stance.

Sort of like Munich relative to Germany.

I think you know nothing about Munich :D


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on April 29, 2012, 03:17:37 PM
Right, I'm assuming that Hollande will win the 'Left' vote (9-1) in the run-off, while the Le Pen vote will break for Sarkozy (5-2), with the Bayrou vote more evenly split (2-2)

Any one know if could be significant regional variation as to how the Bayrou and Le Pen votes would split between Hollande and Sarkozy?

I take it that only the debate could be a game changer


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: homelycooking on April 29, 2012, 09:34:46 PM
A rough map of expat results:

()

Hollande's top five:

Algeria 65.96%
Comoros 64.12%
Benin 60.34%
Mali 58.00%
Togo 55.67%

Sarkozy's top five:

Israel 82.74%
Libya 68.97%
Armenia 64.09%
Cote d'Ivoire 60.29%
Vanuatu 59.74%

Le Pen's top five:

South Sudan 28.57%
Latvia 25.33%
Paraguay 21.82%
Djibouti 21.47%
Monaco 18.30%

Bayrou's top five:

Mongolia 19.05%
Yemen 18.00%
Kazakhstan 17.69%
Slovakia 17.65%
Taiwan 17.57%

Melenchon's top five:

Nicaragua 26.25%
Cuba 23.87%
South Sudan 21.43%
Guatemala 20.50%
Belarus 20.00%

Joly's top five:

Iceland 22.79%
Tajikstan 20.00%
Mongolia 19.05%
Nepal 17.28%
Norway 15.03%


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: tpfkaw on April 29, 2012, 09:40:28 PM
I suspect that some of those foreign countries might have fiddled with the votes sent in from them (the result for Melenchon in Cuba is particularly suspicious).


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 29, 2012, 09:48:46 PM
We may also have to envision what sort of person a French expatriate in Cuba might be.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: tpfkaw on April 29, 2012, 09:52:39 PM
We may also have to envision what sort of person a French expatriate in Cuba might be.

Fair enough, although Sarkozy's results in Libya and Armenia, and Melenchon's result in (once again Sandinista-ruled) Nicaragua also seem a little "fixed."


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 29, 2012, 10:02:27 PM
We may also have to envision what sort of person a French expatriate in Cuba might be.

Fair enough, although Sarkozy's results in Libya and Armenia, and Melenchon's result in (once again Sandinista-ruled) Nicaragua also seem a little "fixed."

I didn't know Daniel Ortega is supervising French presidential election abroad.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: tpfkaw on April 29, 2012, 10:08:07 PM
We may also have to envision what sort of person a French expatriate in Cuba might be.

Fair enough, although Sarkozy's results in Libya and Armenia, and Melenchon's result in (once again Sandinista-ruled) Nicaragua also seem a little "fixed."

I didn't know Daniel Ortega is supervising French presidential election abroad.

It'd be trivially easy for a foreign government to commit absentee voter fraud; if they have the names and addresses of French expats they simply send requests for absentee ballots, intercept them at the post office, and fill them out themselves.  Expats in Latin America tend to be wealthy businesspeople, so a large vote for the far-left would not at all be characteristic.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on April 29, 2012, 10:38:56 PM
So Jews vote right wing in France?

We may also have to envision what sort of person a French expatriate in Cuba might be.

Most likely living in some resort area and not much different from an American expat in Mexico. Though of course it is only 24% so I guess people seeking international solidarity can explain that.

Le Pen's numbers in South Sudan is what I find most odd since I'd believe most French living in Africa are from immigrant families who have moved back.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bacon King on April 30, 2012, 12:05:40 AM
Weird results explained!

Libya: most French expats that have already returned to Libya are in the oil industry (Total), "private security" business - i.e., mercenaries hired by the oil companies to protect their property (Gallice Security), and French Navy personnel sent to advise the new Libyan military. These all sound like quite the conservative types. There's probably also a bit of extra support for Sarkozy because of the proactive role he played in Ghaddafi's overthrow.

Armenia: Sarkozy has made a big deal on the campaign trail about repassing his Armenian Genocide bill that the French courts overturned; probably has a lot to do with it.

Cuba: The expats who aren't good communists get kicked out (http://observers.france24.com/content/20090625-french-student-deported-cuba-befriending-political-dissidents), of course. But more seriously, there's probably a huge self-selection bias among those who chose to emigrate to a dramatically leftist country rather than somewhere else in the region. Same probably applies to Nicaragua.

South Sudan: Hell if I know. Total has an oil concession here that they've barely started exploring, so it's probably the oiler + private security combo of Libya without any other expat community or esteem for overthrowing Ghaddaffi.

It'd be trivially easy for a foreign government to commit absentee voter fraud; if they have the names and addresses of French expats they simply send requests for absentee ballots, intercept them at the post office, and fill them out themselves.

Not true; French election law requires that postal absentee voters place a copy of their identification card in the ballot envelope (http://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/affichCodeArticle.do;jsessionid=32EA45BFBFD8E071B45DC5B6E9FE36D4.tpdjo03v_2?idArticle=LEGIARTI000024372285&cidTexte=LEGITEXT000006070239&dateTexte=20120430), so it'd be pretty much  impossible for some foreign government to attempt this. The international polling stations have very strict security as well, and don't even allow non-French citizens to enter the premises (http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Local-News/2012/Apr-22/170986-french-expats-cast-ballots-in-south-lebanon.ashx#axzz1tUYyI2mn). Not to mention the fact, of course, that it'd be quite ridiculously stupid for a nation's government to risk a huge international incident just to cast a few hundred fraudulent ballots for another country's election.



Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 30, 2012, 04:01:56 AM
Only Libyans really know how much of a hero Sarkozy is ! ;D



I don't know about Jews in general, but Israel residents must fear socialists to have pro-Palestinian tendencies (though French diplomacy regarding Palestine has hardly been different between left and right-wing governments).


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bacon King on April 30, 2012, 04:41:05 AM
Here's a pretty cool map from Wikipedia, showing winner by commune:

() (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/47/2012_French_presidential_election_-_First_round_-_Majority_vote_%28Metropolitan_France%2C_communes%29.svg/2000px-2012_French_presidential_election_-_First_round_-_Majority_vote_%28Metropolitan_France%2C_communes%29.svg.png)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bacon King on April 30, 2012, 05:01:21 AM
South Sudan: Hell if I know. Total has an oil concession here that they've barely started exploring, so it's probably the oiler + private security combo of Libya without any other expat community or esteem for overthrowing Ghaddaffi.

Okay, figured this out. Le Pen won, yes: with 4 votes out of the 14 cast. So it's really just a statistical anomaly more than anything.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on April 30, 2012, 02:58:37 PM
How did Le Pen do in Israel?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on April 30, 2012, 03:29:11 PM

Israel:
Sarkozy 82.7, Hollande 7.6, Le Pen 4, Bayrou 2.8, Mélenchon 0.97, Dupont-Aignan 0.84, Joly 0.56, Poutou 0.28, Cheminade 0.15, Arthaud 0.10

Jerusalem (which is separate of Israel and includes Ramallah):
Sarkozy 75.1, Hollande 9.5, Bayrou 6.2, Le Pen 3.6, Mélenchon 2.6, Dupont-Aignan 1.2, Joly 1.2, Poutou 0.19, Cheminade 0.19, Arthaud 0.19


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 30, 2012, 05:06:12 PM
Hash, I was wondering...
how about a comparison between NDA 2012 and Pasqua-Villiers 1999 ?

Unfortunately, no map from Euro 1999 are available any longer on your old blog :P :(


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on April 30, 2012, 08:06:38 PM
We may also have to envision what sort of person a French expatriate in Cuba might be.

Fair enough, although Sarkozy's results in Libya and Armenia, and Melenchon's result in (once again Sandinista-ruled) Nicaragua also seem a little "fixed."

I didn't know Daniel Ortega is supervising French presidential election abroad.

It'd be trivially easy for a foreign government to commit absentee voter fraud; if they have the names and addresses of French expats they simply send requests for absentee ballots, intercept them at the post office, and fill them out themselves.  Expats in Latin America tend to be wealthy businesspeople, so a large vote for the far-left would not at all be characteristic.

Again, think about what type of French citizen lives in Cuba or Nicaragua, neither of which is friendly towards rich Western businesspeople, and that any French citizen living there would be doing so of their own accord. Also, the Libya result makes sense given Sarkozy's role in the intervention which helped overthrow Gaddafi.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: ag on April 30, 2012, 11:09:21 PM
Again, think about what type of French citizen lives in Cuba or Nicaragua, neither of which is friendly towards rich Western businesspeople, and that any French citizen living there would be doing so of their own accord.

Actually, I am not sure of Nicaragua (don't have any info), but Cuba is, actually, pretty friendly for a certain kind of a European businessman. And, yes, quite a few Europeans (almost definitely French as well) do business there - with the state, much of the time, of course. Money doesn't smell, does it?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 01, 2012, 02:17:45 AM
Anyone has an idea of what's happening with Massif Central?
Is it going the Bretagne way, a couple of decades later?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on May 01, 2012, 03:22:49 AM

Israel:
Sarkozy 82.7, Hollande 7.6, Le Pen 4, Bayrou 2.8, Mélenchon 0.97, Dupont-Aignan 0.84, Joly 0.56, Poutou 0.28, Cheminade 0.15, Arthaud 0.10

Jerusalem (which is separate of Israel and includes Ramallah):
Sarkozy 75.1, Hollande 9.5, Bayrou 6.2, Le Pen 3.6, Mélenchon 2.6, Dupont-Aignan 1.2, Joly 1.2, Poutou 0.19, Cheminade 0.19, Arthaud 0.19
I was seriously wondering about why they defined things that way. Trying to refuse to either endorse or non-endorse Israeli annexation of East Jerusalem?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: danny on May 01, 2012, 06:46:19 AM
I was seriously wondering about why they defined things that way. Trying to refuse to either endorse or non-endorse Israeli annexation of East Jerusalem?


France doesn't recognize any part of Jerusalem as part of Israel (including west Jerusalem), they still refer to Jerusalem as corpus separatum as it was supposed to be under the "United Nations Partition Plan for Palestine".


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on May 01, 2012, 07:01:16 AM
Uh... that sounds odd. (It's not as if they don't recognize the rest of Israel's post-48 boundaries either, is it?) Though it does explain things here.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: danny on May 01, 2012, 08:47:28 AM
Uh... that sounds odd. (It's not as if they don't recognize the rest of Israel's post-48 boundaries either, is it?) Though it does explain things here.
Yes, they are not very consistant about this, one of the polls was in Beer Sheva and is included in Israel despite being part of Palestine under that plan.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: afleitch on May 01, 2012, 09:10:28 AM

“Scottish” results (those registered with the Edinburgh consultate)

Hollande 35.04
Sarkozy 21.39
Bayrou 15.48
Joly 10.29
Melenchon 9.18
Le Pen 3.99


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: ag on May 01, 2012, 09:34:22 AM
Uh... that sounds odd. (It's not as if they don't recognize the rest of Israel's post-48 boundaries either, is it?) Though it does explain things here.

The corpus separatum thing is the standard Western approach to the legal status of Jerusalem. There is nothing strange or new about it: it has always been the position not only of the French, but of the others as well. The Brits, for instance, do the same. This is what the website of their consulate in Jerusalem says:

"Although we accept de facto Israeli control of West Jerusalem, we consider East Jerusalem to be occupied territory. It is crucial that the parties involved come to an agreement whereby Jerusalem can be a shared capital of the Israeli and Palestinian States."

The idea, of course, is, that Israeli control of West Jerusalem will be recognized de jure (not merely de facto) only after the final settlement is achieved. Until then, for the diplomatic purposes, Jerusalem remains, I guess, the last remnant of the Mandate Palestine :)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: ag on May 01, 2012, 09:39:39 AM
Uh... that sounds odd. (It's not as if they don't recognize the rest of Israel's post-48 boundaries either, is it?) Though it does explain things here.
Yes, they are not very consistant about this, one of the polls was in Beer Sheva and is included in Israel despite being part of Palestine under that plan.

They ARE very consistent: it's such a long-standing policy, there's been time to work it out to the minute detail. Israeli post-1948 (pre-1967) borders are, in general, recognized, with one exception: Israeli control of any part of the City of Jerusalem will only be recognized de jure upon the final settlement. The French are not alone here: this is the general approach of most of the world. This is why there are so few embassies in Jerusalem - almost nobody recognizes any part of Jerusalem as legally Israeli. This position is made very clearly, for instance, on the website of the British consulate in Jerusalem.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 01, 2012, 10:45:46 AM
Hash, I was wondering...
how about a comparison between NDA 2012 and Pasqua-Villiers 1999 ?

Unfortunately, no map from Euro 1999 are available any longer on your old blog :P :(

BUMP just for Hash

EDIT: and for all, a small article on my blog with some modest maps:
http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/2012/05/01/geographie-electorale-simplifiee-du-1er-tour-lavenir-difficile-de-la-droite-lechec-de-bayrou-la-force-du-neo-lepenisme-et-le-regain-des-gauches/


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: danny on May 01, 2012, 02:32:25 PM
Uh... that sounds odd. (It's not as if they don't recognize the rest of Israel's post-48 boundaries either, is it?) Though it does explain things here.
Yes, they are not very consistant about this, one of the polls was in Beer Sheva and is included in Israel despite being part of Palestine under that plan.

They ARE very consistent: it's such a long-standing policy, there's been time to work it out to the minute detail. Israeli post-1948 (pre-1967) borders are, in general, recognized, with one exception: Israeli control of any part of the City of Jerusalem will only be recognized de jure upon the final settlement. The French are not alone here: this is the general approach of most of the world. This is why there are so few embassies in Jerusalem - almost nobody recognizes any part of Jerusalem as legally Israeli. This position is made very clearly, for instance, on the website of the British consulate in Jerusalem.

It may be long standing but I don't see how it is consistent if they are going to recognize other parts of pre-67 areas as part of Israel and not "west Jerusalem". And it isn't clear to me what "Jerusalem" means. Is it the original UN corpus separatum? The areas currently defined by Israel as Jerusalem? the areas the British mandate defined as jerusalem?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: ag on May 02, 2012, 10:48:04 AM
It may be long standing but I don't see how it is consistent if they are going to recognize other parts of pre-67 areas as part of Israel and not "west Jerusalem". And it isn't clear to me what "Jerusalem" means. Is it the original UN corpus separatum? The areas currently defined by Israel as Jerusalem? the areas the British mandate defined as jerusalem?

It is consistent with the nearly universally accepted international view of the issue, as reaffirmed in 1980 by the UN Security Council resolution 478.  The corpus separatum refers to Jerusalem, as per the UN Security Council Resolution 181 (II): this is very clearly stated, without any ambiguity, and is not a peculiarly French position at all. The rest of the Israeli post-1949 border is recognized.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 02, 2012, 03:08:46 PM
Think future discussion of that particular issue would be better elsewhere?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on May 02, 2012, 06:11:13 PM
Hash, I was wondering...
how about a comparison between NDA 2012 and Pasqua-Villiers 1999 ?

Unfortunately, no map from Euro 1999 are available any longer on your old blog :P :(

BUMP just for Hash

In a bid to restore this terrible thread, I drew up a correlation coefficient between the two variables at a departmental level, and it was only 0.17, which is positive but weak. I did find a 0.37 correlation between Boutin and Sarko, though (at a cantonal level).



Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 02, 2012, 06:43:31 PM
Do you have a link for results by constituency? Ought to be useful for working things out for the third part of the four General Elections.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on May 02, 2012, 06:51:15 PM
Either of Geoclip's OVF (http://franceo3.geoclip.fr/index.php?profil=FV#i=xd_pres2012_t1.nuance_tete_t1;l=fr;v=map12) or CDSP (http://cdsp.sciences-po.fr/AE.php) have them.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 02, 2012, 06:53:38 PM
Hash, I was wondering...
how about a comparison between NDA 2012 and Pasqua-Villiers 1999 ?

Unfortunately, no map from Euro 1999 are available any longer on your old blog :P :(

BUMP just for Hash

In a bid to restore this terrible thread, I drew up a correlation coefficient between the two variables at a departmental level, and it was only 0.17, which is positive but weak. I did find a 0.37 correlation between Boutin and Sarko, though (at a cantonal level).



Ah, thanks a lot. Yeah, there was something between Boutin and Sarko ;)
As for NDA, maybe we'll keep on searching for him for a long time :P


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 02, 2012, 07:00:45 PM
Either of Geoclip's OVF (http://franceo3.geoclip.fr/index.php?profil=FV#i=xd_pres2012_t1.nuance_tete_t1;l=fr;v=map12) or CDSP (http://cdsp.sciences-po.fr/AE.php) have them.

Diolch


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Meeker on May 03, 2012, 03:23:31 PM
Pretty map: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/47/2012_French_presidential_election_-_First_round_-_Majority_vote_%28Metropolitan_France%2C_communes%29.svg


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Sbane on May 03, 2012, 04:24:33 PM
Why is the far right so strong on the Mediterranean coast of France? High immigration rates? Also why is it strong in those areas near Belgium?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 03, 2012, 04:49:53 PM
Why is the far right so strong on the Mediterranean coast of France? High immigration rates? Also why is it strong in those areas near Belgium?

Mediterranea: High rate of Arab population, I think.
Belgium: Dead industrial areas. Think of dead places of the Rust Belt, like Detroit.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Colbert on May 04, 2012, 07:21:21 AM
Either of Geoclip's OVF (http://franceo3.geoclip.fr/index.php?profil=FV#i=xd_pres2012_t1.nuance_tete_t1;l=fr;v=map12) or CDSP (http://cdsp.sciences-po.fr/AE.php) have them.

Diolch



"diolch" ?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Leftbehind on May 04, 2012, 07:24:26 AM
Thanks in Welsh.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Colbert on May 04, 2012, 08:28:32 AM
something wich could be important for the next legislative election : national result without overseas territories and without french living out of france


1-hollande............28.13%
2-sarkozy..............27.04%
3-MLP....................18.30%
4-mélenchon.........11.29%
5-bayrou...............9.19%
6-joly.....................2.28%
7-NDA....................1.82%
8-poutou...............1.16%
9-arthaud..............0.56%


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Colbert on May 04, 2012, 10:04:15 AM
Hash, I was wondering...
how about a comparison between NDA 2012 and Pasqua-Villiers 1999 ?

Unfortunately, no map from Euro 1999 are available any longer on your old blog :P :(

BUMP just for Hash

EDIT: and for all, a small article on my blog with some modest maps:
http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/2012/05/01/geographie-electorale-simplifiee-du-1er-tour-lavenir-difficile-de-la-droite-lechec-de-bayrou-la-force-du-neo-lepenisme-et-le-regain-des-gauches/



about the "affair" marion/marine, I have discovered than JMLP had want to name is daughter Marine, but the "etat-civil" (in 1968) did'nt accept this name, so, he write "marion"

but her name is, if not de jure, really Marine.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Colbert on May 04, 2012, 10:16:27 AM
(but, without this story who make me "gnnnnrrrrr" (^^), I have to say that i love read your blog, not only because the informations I got, but for the sense of humor (? humour?) you develop)


(I like too the fact you use the beautiul names of are former provinces, duchy & county more than the ugly "river-names" of our departements. (frankly, who's the crazy guy who create "ile-et-vilaine"???)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on May 05, 2012, 09:06:54 PM
A 5%-scaled map of the results of the first round by canton or city:

()

Have fun!


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on May 05, 2012, 09:12:11 PM
No matter the result, we can be sure that Hashemite will be insisting that all French people are stupid idiots tomorrow night.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 05, 2012, 09:13:18 PM
No matter the result, we can be sure that Hashemite will be insisting that all French people are stupid idiots tomorrow night.

Here, here.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 05, 2012, 11:12:32 PM
Great map, Hash !

Thx.

:)

BTW, can we not have a new results thread only for the run-off ?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 06, 2012, 10:22:04 AM
Very beautiful map !

Heavens, my canton is in red :(
Corrèze is so funny ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 06, 2012, 10:27:51 AM
Very beautiful map !

Heavens, my canton is in red :(

Well, to compensate, mine is obviously blue. :P


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on May 06, 2012, 11:01:10 AM
This thread can now be used for results etc. My live blog is now open, go to my blog and click on the linkie.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 06, 2012, 11:12:50 AM
Belgium media reports that their numbers show a Hollande win.

Edited by Your Friendly Neighbourhood Dictator. But only slightly. Hisht.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 06, 2012, 11:16:04 AM
---DISCLAIMER---


So, just for you to know, if Sarkozy were to win today, here is what will happen.

First of all, I will post a long list of swear words which would make it impossible, even for a lenient mod like Al, not to give me 10 infraction points. Then, I would probably leave the forum for several days (or even weeks) and engage in the most futile and self-destructive activities I can (eating chocolate, playing videogames, etc). When I'll be back, don't expect me to discuss policies or political evolutions of countries. I'll probably limit my contribution to FC, what-ifs and other fun things to do. Here is what you need to know.

If Hollande's win is poor (below 52%), you can also expect me to be very irritable in the following weeks, and not to do anything constructive. I'd probably need to talk with my friends a bit. If his victory is mediocre (below Sarko's 2007 score) expect me to be quite bitter.

So, this is it. I want to believe this will be a great night. :D


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: jaichind on May 06, 2012, 11:21:14 AM
  Brussels (DPA) -- Socialist candidate Francois Hollande is set
to win the French presidential election with about 53 per cent of
the vote, several polls leaked by Swiss and Belgian news sites
said Sunday, as voting was still underway.
   The BVA, Ipsos and Opinion Way polling institutes predict
Hollande winnig with 52.5 per cent, versus 47.5 per cent for
incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy, the Belgian newspaper Le Soir wrote on
its website.
   Three other research agencies - CSA, Ifop and Harris -
forecast a 53-47 per cent win for Hollande, while TNS envisages a
Socialist victory by an even larger margin: 53.5 to 46.5 per
cent.
   While such leaked results were already circulating on the
foreign media, French media are forbidden from publishing them
until polls close at 8 pm (1800 GMT).


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on May 06, 2012, 11:22:34 AM
Are you people a bunch of stupid illiterate retards? I told you NOT to post the leaked results. Now go DIAF.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 06, 2012, 11:25:03 AM
Are you people a bunch of stupid illiterate retards? I told you NOT to post the leaked results. Now go DIAF.

Sry, didn't see it anywhere.

But who cares about if this is leaked or not ?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 06, 2012, 11:28:12 AM
Are you people a bunch of stupid illiterate retards? I told you NOT to post the leaked results. Now go DIAF.

Sry, didn't see it anywhere.

But who cares about if this is leaked or not ?

Some of us like to wait until official results time.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 06, 2012, 11:29:27 AM
Btw:

Hashemite calls us "a bunch of stupid illiterate retards" when in fact the French exit pollsters are the retards and incompetents who leak their results to Belgian media.

And Hashemite: If you were serious, you should have put it into the title of the thread like "France 2012: Official Results Thread - NO EARLY LEAKS ALLOWED", so that we don't have to read 40 pages and look for where you wrote it ... ::)

Rant over.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2012, 11:41:19 AM
Could we all calm the fyck down, please? Diolch. I've turned the leaks into tinytype, for whatever that's worth.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Thomas D on May 06, 2012, 11:48:27 AM
Sorry if this has been covered elsewhere, but what time do the polls close in France?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 06, 2012, 11:52:21 AM
Sorry if this has been covered elsewhere, but what time do the polls close in France?

8, French time :) Just over an hour to go.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 06, 2012, 11:57:20 AM
http://www.francetv.fr/2012/

A stream of France 2. Their election program's just started.

BBC News has an English language news special at 7:30 French time (6:30 UK) and i'm assuming it'll be on BBC World as well.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on May 06, 2012, 12:20:23 PM
Hash, don't be angry. Leaked polls are similar to Friday polls. There's anything new. No surprises.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: jaichind on May 06, 2012, 12:33:32 PM
Are you people a bunch of stupid illiterate retards? I told you NOT to post the leaked results. Now go DIAF.

Oh. Sorry about that.  It was not clear that this was not allowed.  I for sure do not want to get this website in trouble with the French Government.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 06, 2012, 12:43:28 PM
Are you people a bunch of stupid illiterate retards? I told you NOT to post the leaked results. Now go DIAF.

Oh. Sorry about that.  It was not clear that this was not allowed.  I for sure do not want to get this website in trouble with the French Government.

This site is not based in France, so don't worry ... :P


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on May 06, 2012, 12:50:16 PM
No matter the result, we can be sure that Hashemite will be insisting that all French people are stupid idiots tomorrow night.
Even french people are still people. QED, he's right.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 06, 2012, 12:52:42 PM
I'm disappointed but can't say I'm surprised. The President-elect either throws out that BS campaign rhetoric or becomes the French Zapatero. I suspect the former.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 12:55:25 PM
6 mins before telling 'bye bye' to Sarkozy?

(...since that's all what this election has been about)

A voté! in the last minutes, hope it will make it reach the 53%.

(...can't wait to see Sarkozy's face and speech...he's turned so almost actually insane in the last days, that it could be something...

5...

(...amazing how, no matter all the leaky everywhere, everybody, in France at least is waiting for the big picture on TV at 20h.

4...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 01:00:25 PM
allez.................SALUT!!!


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Kushahontas on May 06, 2012, 01:00:33 PM
ugh that stream posted a bit further up will just not load for me :/


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 06, 2012, 01:00:44 PM
Hollande was elected.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Insula Dei on May 06, 2012, 01:00:59 PM
Hollande: 51.90



Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2012, 01:01:06 PM
Bye bye Poison Dwarf.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 06, 2012, 01:01:27 PM
Party time !

:)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 01:01:39 PM
lol...'Hollande Président', cute.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on May 06, 2012, 01:02:01 PM
Can't wait for the right-wing landslide in the 2014 regional elections.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 06, 2012, 01:02:50 PM
Thank God for Europe.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Leftbehind on May 06, 2012, 01:03:10 PM
Great news. :)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 06, 2012, 01:03:44 PM
FRANCOIS PRESIDENT!!!!!!!


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 01:03:54 PM
Can't wait for the right-wing landslide in the 2014 regional elections.

Yeah, the point would be to know which party to lead the Right (Far-Right?)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 06, 2012, 01:04:01 PM
Farewell time!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c5noWWReXKk


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on May 06, 2012, 01:04:15 PM
Go.....go Sarkozy....*yay*


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 06, 2012, 01:05:07 PM
What about the "Sarkozy voter looking at 4pm Belgium news on the Internet saying Hollande leads by 53-47 and thinks: Oh sh**t, this is so close I should help my guy in the final hours ! and then Sarko-stay-at home voter goes voting so that Hollande leads the first exit poll by only 51.9-48.1 anymore" factor ?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 01:05:27 PM
lol...all Hollande family interviewed on France2...Ségolène, Thomas, awww...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 06, 2012, 01:05:41 PM
Thomas Hollande and Segolene getting emotional on France 2.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Insula Dei on May 06, 2012, 01:06:10 PM
That last minute Sarko bump appears to have been real, though.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on May 06, 2012, 01:07:45 PM
A sad day for France and for the world.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 06, 2012, 01:07:46 PM
Let's hope my prediction stays within +/- 0,4%


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: DL on May 06, 2012, 01:08:01 PM
The Netherlands has now taken over France. Hollande President!


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 06, 2012, 01:08:11 PM
Congratulations, Phil.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2012, 01:08:31 PM
The pattern of results will be really interesting, I suspect. Always are in France, but maybe more than usual.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on May 06, 2012, 01:08:52 PM
If that 48.1% is true... indeed.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Kushahontas on May 06, 2012, 01:08:55 PM

:D


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 06, 2012, 01:09:04 PM

I will now accept my accolades.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 06, 2012, 01:09:13 PM
The day of glory has arrived.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Torie on May 06, 2012, 01:09:37 PM
Hollande was "elected" based on a 4 point spread in an exit poll (presumably an incomplete one if the polls just closed)?  If so, all I can say is no one would so call an election based on that in the US.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 06, 2012, 01:11:01 PM
Hollande was "elected" based on a 4 point spread in an exit poll?  If so, all I can say is no one would so call an election based on that in the US.

France has 7 exit pollsters, they cannot be all wrong.

The exit polls actually vary from 52 to 53.5% for Hollande.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 01:11:14 PM
What about the "Sarkozy voter looking at 4pm Belgium news on the Internet saying Hollande leads by 53-47 and thinks: Oh sh**t, this is so close I should help my guy in the final hours ! and then Sarko-stay-at home voter goes voting so that Hollande leads the first exit poll by only 51.9-48.1 anymore" factor ?

lol...1 percent in 2 hours??

1 percent able to that for...the most hated man in France??

Would be surprising to say the least...
Keep this sentence for the 17th of May rather, and overall for 2014 elections if you can be that patient too...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 06, 2012, 01:11:40 PM
Meh, that's a pathetic result. We deserved >54%, at least.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Insula Dei on May 06, 2012, 01:11:48 PM
I love the 'The President has left the Elysée' routine the French media perform on election night. What's the added value of some motorbike-riding camera risking his life trying to film the tainted windows of Sarko's car?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on May 06, 2012, 01:11:54 PM
Hollande was "elected" based on a 4 point spread in an exit poll?  If so, all I can say is no one would so call an election based on that in the US.

European exit polls tend to be a lot more on the mark than their American counterparts. I suspect it's because turnout is a lot higher so there's little difference between "likely" and "registered voters" in France and other Europeans nations.

To all the naysayers: Hollande isn't in office yet. We have to see how he will govern and how effective he is.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on May 06, 2012, 01:12:44 PM
There's also the issue of much of the country actually being counted already, just not formally collated.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Torie on May 06, 2012, 01:13:50 PM
Hollande was "elected" based on a 4 point spread in an exit poll?  If so, all I can say is no one would so call an election based on that in the US.

France has 7 exit pollsters, they cannot be all wrong.

The exit polls actually vary from 52 to 53.5% for Hollande.

OK. I would still be a tad leery myself. How does the registered versus likely voters thing affect exit polls, which presumably are of "already voted" voters?  And do they have any vote by mail? I am not saying Hollande has not won, but what I am saying, is that anything less than about 54%, and you need to wait for some raw votes in the US. I think Gore was ahead by at least 6% in the Florida exit poll. So the networks rushed to call it, and the rest is history.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 01:14:08 PM
I love the 'The President has left the Elysée' routine the French media perform on election night. What's the added value of some motorbike-riding camera risking his life trying to film the tainted windows of Sarko's car?

It's a 1995 France2 pattern, and then it took all other TVs, ah well...

Everybody find it stupid but everybody would be surprised it doesn't happen I guess ^^


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 06, 2012, 01:14:14 PM
Exit Polls:

()

Turnout: 81.5%


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2012, 01:14:54 PM
Mitterrand took about 51.8% in 1981, interestingly enough.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: SPQR on May 06, 2012, 01:15:51 PM
Allez Hollande!


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 01:16:28 PM
lol, Morano and Dati's face...allez...SALUT!


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on May 06, 2012, 01:18:10 PM
Poor Phil. He was absolutely sure. And Holland finally won in an upset haaaaaaahahahahahaha


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on May 06, 2012, 01:18:35 PM
Mitterrand took about 51.8% in 1981, interestingly enough.

Yep. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_1981


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Torie on May 06, 2012, 01:20:07 PM
Does it really matter who runs France?  I mean, isn't the international economic/debt leash on it so tight now, that the government's only big decision is what color of pencils to use?  Just asking.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Beet on May 06, 2012, 01:20:35 PM
Mitterrand took about 51.8% in 1981, interestingly enough.

Yep. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_1981

Thanks man. I hadn't realized to look at wikipedia.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Insula Dei on May 06, 2012, 01:21:28 PM
Does it really matter who runs France?  I mean, isn't the international economic/debt leash on it so tight now, that the government's only big decision is what color of pencils to use?  Just asking.

You're in the wrong thread. That'd be Greece.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Simfan34 on May 06, 2012, 01:21:53 PM
So if Hollande messes up what are the chances we see Sarkozy again in 2017? Or does that not happen in France?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on May 06, 2012, 01:22:18 PM
Does it really matter who runs France?  I mean, isn't the international economic/debt leash on it so tight now, that the government's only big decision is what color of pencils to use?  Just asking.

Hollande appears to be more in favor of expansionary policies at the expense to Debt/GDP, but still wants to run a surplus by 2017. If he could pull it off, France, not Germany, would be the economic engine of Europe.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 06, 2012, 01:22:26 PM
Sarkozy is joining Giscard club.

Alas, poor Valery :(


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Andrea on May 06, 2012, 01:22:31 PM
Lot: Hollande 61.89%
Guadalupe: Hollande 71.93%
Martinique: Hollande 68.43%
Nouvelle Caledonie: Sarkozy 63.04%
Guyane: Hollande 62.05%
Polynesie: Sarko 53.26
St Pierre et Miquelon: Hollande 65.3
Wallies et Fatuna: Hollande 56.06
Saint Martin/Saint Barthelemy: Sarkozy 59.43%


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 06, 2012, 01:23:06 PM
Lot 62-38 Hollande


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Insula Dei on May 06, 2012, 01:23:25 PM
Sarko's audience is really rather noisy and all around annoying.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Beet on May 06, 2012, 01:24:30 PM
Does it really matter who runs France?

Between the two guys running today? Not really. Hollande has different bluster but in the end Merkel holds the whip over him same as his predecessor. If Le Pen or Melenchon however, then you'd have potential for something (good or bad- up to you).


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 06, 2012, 01:24:43 PM
No, don't thank him idiots.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on May 06, 2012, 01:25:24 PM
Does it really matter who runs France?  I mean, isn't the international economic/debt leash on it so tight now, that the government's only big decision is what color of pencils to use?  Just asking.
Nah. France (and Sarko) is fairly big, it'll shake the tiny pro-total-deluge bureaucratic minority that currently runs things. Though only, of course, up to a point - PS being a centrist social democratic party. This might prevent your type from self-destructing, but it won't shake your grip on power. :)
So if Hollande messes up what are the chances we see Sarkozy again in 2017? Or does that not happen in France?
Happens in France, but won't to that thing. Trust me on that. A Sarkozy that's proven his beatability might as well never have been born in terms of future electability. Not that that ends his type of politics, of course. Not in the slightest.
Sarkozy is joining Giscard club.

Alas, poor Valery :(
Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Andrea on May 06, 2012, 01:25:52 PM
Ariège: Hollande 64.69%


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on May 06, 2012, 01:26:21 PM
Sarko wins Lozere by 45 votes


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on May 06, 2012, 01:26:31 PM
Lozère

24,036 - 23,991. So close!


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 06, 2012, 01:27:56 PM
Hollande improves by margins of 5-8% against the Royal results in the mainland disctricts counted so far.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Andrea on May 06, 2012, 01:28:24 PM
Over 56% for Hollande in Gers


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Jackson on May 06, 2012, 01:28:41 PM
Creuse:61-39 Hollande


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 01:29:23 PM
Does it really matter who runs France?  I mean, isn't the international economic/debt leash on it so tight now, that the government's only big decision is what color of pencils to use?  Just asking.

I guess the result of this elections matters a bit for French, since they have been about 81,5% to vote...

The main point was to oust a guy.

So if Hollande messes up what are the chances we see Sarkozy again in 2017?

Nah. Over. Or it would be surprising. It's like asking if Bush 43 could come back...

But amusingly, while the two runners of 2007 ('Nicolas et Ségolène' have been beaten, their 'ideas' have won, especially Nicolas' ones...)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on May 06, 2012, 01:29:45 PM
Lozère

24,036 - 23,991. So close!
Lol.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Torie on May 06, 2012, 01:32:00 PM
Does it really matter who runs France?  I mean, isn't the international economic/debt leash on it so tight now, that the government's only big decision is what color of pencils to use?  Just asking.

You're in the wrong thread. That'd be Greece.

France doesn't have much more running room these days. Anyway, I remember when Mitterrand first won, and had to chuck most of his program pretty quickly, when the Franc started collapsing. The US gets away with more because of its reserve currency status.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 06, 2012, 01:32:28 PM
So that's that then. Don't let the door hit you on the way out there Nicolas.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on May 06, 2012, 01:33:30 PM
"We're only 7-8 years behind Greece as things are going". Peter Harry Carstensen, allowed to say such things because he wasn't running for reelection


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Andrea on May 06, 2012, 01:36:37 PM
52.67% for Hollande in Sarthe.
He takes La Reunion with 71%
53.8% for Sarko in Meause


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Oakvale on May 06, 2012, 01:36:53 PM
Sarkozy will be re-ele--- uh, never mind.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Torie on May 06, 2012, 01:37:05 PM
Does it really matter who runs France?  I mean, isn't the international economic/debt leash on it so tight now, that the government's only big decision is what color of pencils to use?  Just asking.
Nah. France (and Sarko) is fairly big, it'll shake the tiny pro-total-deluge bureaucratic minority that currently runs things. Though only, of course, up to a point - PS being a centrist social democratic party. This might prevent your type from self-destructing, but it won't shake your grip on power. :)
So if Hollande messes up what are the chances we see Sarkozy again in 2017? Or does that not happen in France?
Happens in France, but won't to that thing. Trust me on that. A Sarkozy that's proven his beatability might as well never have been born in terms of future electability. Not that that ends his type of politics, of course. Not in the slightest.
Sarkozy is joining Giscard club.

Alas, poor Valery :(
Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy.

Pro total deluge eh?  You mean you think Sarko has policies that will lead to another sans culotte takeover or something, causing a "destruction" of the bourgeoisie? Or is it something more subtle. Or is it just rhetoric. :P


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 06, 2012, 01:37:41 PM
Yeah, we won. That's great. But still pathetically close. This is unfair, so unfair.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Torie on May 06, 2012, 01:39:41 PM
52.67% for Hollande in Sarthe.
He takes La Reunion with 71%
53.8% for Sarko in Meause

Do all of these little provincial numbers fit the pattern as it were?  Numbers without patterns are like shoes without socks.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 06, 2012, 01:40:31 PM

Finally, Phil made a good post in this thread :)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 01:40:48 PM
Totally empty speech of Sarkozy, ah but well...'il nous aime!'...

()


France doesn't have much more running room these days. Anyway, I remember when Mitterrand first won, and had to chuck most of his program pretty quickly, when the Franc started collapsing. The US gets away with more because of its reserve currency status.

France is kinda 'the half' of the 1st World economic area, EU, of which the 1st power, Germany, trade is very dependent, the 2nd diplomatic power in the world in term of embassies, and the third military industry in the world too, while it's not the beginning and the end of everything, for the power that is still left the govts nowadays, I guess it matters a bit still...

That being said, yes, as long as Germany doesn't move, nothing will improve a lot. The coming days in Europe will be interesting to monitor...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 01:41:25 PM
52.67% for Hollande in Sarthe.
He takes La Reunion with 71%
53.8% for Sarko in Meause

Do all of these little provincial numbers fit the pattern as it were?  Numbers without patterns are like shoes without socks.

lol, someone needs something to bite.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on May 06, 2012, 01:42:12 PM
Does it really matter who runs France?  I mean, isn't the international economic/debt leash on it so tight now, that the government's only big decision is what color of pencils to use?  Just asking.
Nah. France (and Sarko) is fairly big, it'll shake the tiny pro-total-deluge bureaucratic minority that currently runs things. Though only, of course, up to a point - PS being a centrist social democratic party. This might prevent your type from self-destructing, but it won't shake your grip on power. :)
So if Hollande messes up what are the chances we see Sarkozy again in 2017? Or does that not happen in France?
Happens in France, but won't to that thing. Trust me on that. A Sarkozy that's proven his beatability might as well never have been born in terms of future electability. Not that that ends his type of politics, of course. Not in the slightest.
Sarkozy is joining Giscard club.

Alas, poor Valery :(
Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy.

Pro total deluge eh?  You mean you think Sarko has policies that will lead to another sans culotte takeover or something, causing a "destruction" of the bourgeoisie? Or is it something more subtle. Or is it just rhetoric. :P
Nah, just to a self-inflicted economic meltdown of the Eurozone (read all its weaker particles, but if all of them go, then where does that leave the French and German "real" economy? Yeah right.) But it's partly rhetoric, and also partly the booze talking. I warned you all that I'd be quite drunk by the time I'd be back from Karlsruhe.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 06, 2012, 01:43:22 PM
() ()

FAIL !


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Franzl on May 06, 2012, 01:44:07 PM
Yeah, we won. That's great. But still pathetically close. This is unfair, so unfair.

Be happy with what you get! ;)

You won. Your guy gets to run things.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on May 06, 2012, 01:44:58 PM
Yeah, we won. That's great. But still pathetically close. This is unfair, so unfair.

You beat an incumbent and are complaining about the margin if victory? Really? If you transplanted the current PV totals into the American electoral college you'd probably get a win in the low 300s, which while not a landslide, is a strong win. Be happy with your victory.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Andrea on May 06, 2012, 01:45:06 PM
52.67% for Hollande in Sarthe.
He takes La Reunion with 71%
53.8% for Sarko in Meause

Do all of these little provincial numbers fit the pattern as it were?  Numbers without patterns are like shoes without socks.

Lozere was 55-45 for Sarko in 2007. Now it's a tie.
Lot had Royal at 56%. Hollande took 61%.
Meuse was won by Sarzo with 56.9% in 2007. Now it's down to 53.8%
Sarthe was 50.5% to 49.5% for Sarkozy. Now it's 52.6% for Hollande


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 06, 2012, 01:46:01 PM
Yeah, we won. That's great. But still pathetically close. This is unfair, so unfair.

Be happy with what you get! ;)

You won. Your guy gets to run things.

Yeah, I know, I'm naturally pessimistic.

But still, a victory wasn't enough tonight. We needed a great victory. This is a pyrrhic one.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Insula Dei on May 06, 2012, 01:46:17 PM
To be fair 48+% for Sarko would just be obscene. Let's hope it's close to IFOP's 47.2%


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on May 06, 2012, 01:46:32 PM
52.67% for Hollande in Sarthe.
He takes La Reunion with 71%
53.8% for Sarko in Meause

Do all of these little provincial numbers fit the pattern as it were?  Numbers without patterns are like shoes without socks.

Hollande should do well in Western/Central France, while Sarkozy should do well in the East.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 01:46:58 PM
You won. Your guy gets to run things.

Nah, they didn't win. Sarkozy lost. That's the problem we are facing.

The only winner of this election didn't succeed to make the 2nd run, this time.

Also, let's wait the big cities and IdF, most of them would help Hollande.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 06, 2012, 01:47:32 PM
Yeah, we won. That's great. But still pathetically close. This is unfair, so unfair.

Jesus. F**king, Christ.

The first socialist President elected during your lifetime (since you were obviously way too young to experience 1988) and you're still [inks]

Poison Dwarf is GONE. That's what matter.


Oh, have a fun night :)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on May 06, 2012, 01:47:58 PM
To be fair 48+% for Sarko would just be obscene. Let's hope it's close to IFOP's 47.2%
I agree. 47% is really my personal over-under. :)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on May 06, 2012, 01:48:22 PM
Yeah, we won. That's great. But still pathetically close. This is unfair, so unfair.

Be happy with what you get! ;)

You won. Your guy gets to run things.

Yeah, I know, I'm naturally pessimistic.

But still, a victory wasn't enough tonight. We needed a great victory. This is a pyrrhic one.

Likely beating Mitterrand's margin is a Pyrrhic victory? Are you serious?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Andrea on May 06, 2012, 01:50:34 PM
Cantal
2007 Sarkozy  55.76
2012 Hollande 51.8%

Haute Pyrenees
2007 Royal 57.37
2012 Hollande 62.42%

Eure et Loire
2007 Sarkozy 58.16
2012 Sarkozy 53.47%

Tarn
2007 Royal 50.71%
2012 Hollande 55.55%

Mayenne
2007 Sarkozy 55.45%
2012 Sarkozy 53.07%

Aisne
2007 Sarkozy 53.36$
2012 Hollande 52.4%


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 06, 2012, 01:50:47 PM
Hollande won Cantal (!?!) 52-48.
So, a step in the good direction, because the real problem of Europe is Germany and the unelected lobbyists in Brussels imposing neoliberalism on Europe.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 06, 2012, 01:53:30 PM
At risk of embarassing myself...

Any live results tracker (like google page?)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on May 06, 2012, 01:55:03 PM
Lol, just noticed Hollande cracked 70 on Guadeloupe.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 01:55:49 PM
Likely beating Mitterrand's margin is a Pyrrhic victory? Are you serious?

So, even people abroad make the error to compare it to Mitterand's victory...

All those people forcing themselves to try relive 1981 on the Place de la Bastille right now are, well...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 01:56:34 PM
The winner of this election is speaking right now on France2.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 06, 2012, 01:57:18 PM
At risk of embarassing myself...

Any live results tracker (like google page?)

http://www.google.fr/elections/ed/fr/results?hl=en (http://www.google.fr/elections/ed/fr/results?hl=en)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 06, 2012, 02:02:44 PM
Yeah, we won. That's great. But still pathetically close. This is unfair, so unfair.

Be happy with what you get! ;)

You won. Your guy gets to run things.

Yeah, I know, I'm naturally pessimistic.

But still, a victory wasn't enough tonight. We needed a great victory. This is a pyrrhic one.

Likely beating Mitterrand's margin is a Pyrrhic victory? Are you serious?

Doing worse than any single goddam poll in the last 2 years predicted, and doing worse than Sarko had actually done in 2007, is a pyrrhic victory.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on May 06, 2012, 02:03:08 PM
Likely beating Mitterrand's margin is a Pyrrhic victory? Are you serious?

So, even people abroad make the error to compare it to Mitterand's victory...

All those people forcing themselves to try relive 1981 on the Place de la Bastille right now are, well...
1981 was a different effing world.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 02:03:58 PM
Saint-Quentin (Aisne, Xavier Bertand's city):

Hollande 54,2
Sarkozy 45,8

and doing worse than Sarko had actually done in 2007, is a pyrrhic victory.

Yup, I would have hope a 53-47 for the symbol only.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 02:05:16 PM
YAAAYYYY YAAAAAAAAYYYYYYY THE LEEEEEEEEEEEEEFTTTTTTTT WOOOOOOOOOOONNN!!

So, what do we have on the biggest TV for this electoral election to live that??

Still Ségolène and Thomas Hollande, over and over, saying how they are happy...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Svensson on May 06, 2012, 02:07:40 PM
Having just perused the results: good luck to the French and their new government. I hope they run things well, because lord knows the world could use a lot more of that right about now.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 02:09:42 PM
Fillon 'kept' Sablé-sur-Sarthe (Sarthe):

Sarkozy 52,9
Hollande 47,1


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Torie on May 06, 2012, 02:09:50 PM
52.67% for Hollande in Sarthe.
He takes La Reunion with 71%
53.8% for Sarko in Meause

Do all of these little provincial numbers fit the pattern as it were?  Numbers without patterns are like shoes without socks.

Lozere was 55-45 for Sarko in 2007. Now it's a tie.
Lot had Royal at 56%. Hollande took 61%.
Meuse was won by Sarzo with 56.9% in 2007. Now it's down to 53.8%
Sarthe was 50.5% to 49.5% for Sarkozy. Now it's 52.6% for Hollande

Yes, a 5 point swing fits the pattern. A 3 point swing is a tie (I looked up the numbers from the last election). I assume most of the the little nodes will be 5 pointers rather than 2 or 3 pointers, given that the exit polls in France are just so apparently marvelous.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 02:12:38 PM
...given that the exit polls in France are just so apparently marvelous.

They used to be still better in the preceding years, but most of them seem to remain decent.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on May 06, 2012, 02:16:32 PM
I'm copping out of this election. Two is enough to follow. Alert me if this goes into >53 or <51 territory within the next two hours or so somehow.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 02:18:56 PM
Sarkozy doing big in Haute-Marne (54,4) and Meuse (53,8), which would mean that the FN vote was more genuine there than a anti-Sarkozy effect.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 06, 2012, 02:20:22 PM
Correze is my favorite place on earth tonight.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 02:21:53 PM
Correze is my favorite place on earth tonight.

Wow, yes, bigger than Creuse.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 06, 2012, 02:23:08 PM

Bigger than Ariège, too.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 06, 2012, 02:23:47 PM
Morbihan has switched tonight to the left. Brittany, I hate you, more than ever ;D

Go to the TNS-Sofres poll: big transfers from Bayrou voters (take that, Bayrou !), Sarkozy has a majority among employees from the private sector, Sarkozy has a majority among 18-24 ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on May 06, 2012, 02:27:00 PM
Morbihan has switched tonight to the left. Brittany, I hate you, more than ever ;D

Go to the TNS-Sofres poll: big transfers from Bayrou voters (take that, Bayrou !), Sarkozy has a majority among employees from the private sector, Sarkozy has a majority among 18-24 ;D

And still loses :P


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 06, 2012, 02:28:59 PM

Lol, guys, Hollande is the second President of Corrèze General Council to be elected President of the Republic.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on May 06, 2012, 02:30:21 PM

Lol, guys, Hollande is the second President of Corrèze General Council to be elected President of the Republic.
Who's the current one? Clearly we're looking at our future overlord.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 06, 2012, 02:31:10 PM

Lol, guys, Hollande is the second President of Corrèze General Council to be elected President of the Republic.
Who's the current one?

Hollande, still :P

Also, Francois will be the first President under 5th Republic without previous experience in cabinet.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2012, 02:33:56 PM
Back again after drinking some celebratory cider from Brittany. Very nice as well.

So, anyway, a point of interest already: Hollande carries the Territoire de Belfort.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2012, 02:35:27 PM
Haute-Loire for Hollande.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on May 06, 2012, 02:36:35 PM
Back again after drinking some celebratory cider from Brittany. Very nice as well.

So, anyway, a point of interest already: Hollande carries the Territoire de Belfort.
Cantal seemed more interesting.

Cider from the Wetterau, pilsener from Karlsruhe, plum schnapps from god knows where, spirit of quince by Alde Gott.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on May 06, 2012, 02:39:02 PM
Shy Sarkozy effect will give this to the hero of the European Right.
















No, seriously, what's our over-under right now? ~52.5-53% Hollande?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2012, 02:39:12 PM

Oh, sure. But already mentioned. Haute-Loire as well.

Quote
Cider from the Wetterau, pilsener from Karlsruhe, plum schnapps from god knows where, spirit of quince by Alde Gott.

And you're still capable of making halfway intelligent comments about elections. Quite a trooper.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P! on May 06, 2012, 02:39:22 PM
I don't see why anyone's making a big deal about this. The differences between Hollande and Sarkozy so far as policies goes are infinitesimal, and we knew that Hollande was going to win the minute he won the runoff.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on May 06, 2012, 02:40:59 PM
lol Flanby will be President. Haha. Epic fail for the Poison Dwarf, defeated by the guy who has the appearance of a creme caramel.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 02:44:47 PM
Sarkozy out, now all those people of which the main job was to hit on him will have to, eventually, try to do some 'politics' now...

They have totally irresponsibly put all problems on Sarkozy during years and years (lol, kinda even before than he was president), and promised (and still promising right now with Hollande speech) a lot of change only thanks to the removal of a man. Well, thankfully Hollande remains more humble than Sarkozy was in 2007, but still, they shouldn't play like they did with the problems and the hopes of people, Sarkozy played a lot with xenophobia feeling, the Left played a lot with the hopes and problems of people, if they can't have a success, the backlash could be terrible.

That being said, it's indeed pleasant(!) to see all those poor bad clowns out.

I don't see why anyone's making a big deal about this. The differences between Hollande and Sarkozy so far as policies goes are infinitesimal, and we knew that Hollande was going to win the minute he won the runoff.

again:

...get the feeling of getting rid of Bush 43. Then that's the French version.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on May 06, 2012, 02:45:25 PM
Is that supposed to be a bad thing? Creme caramel is delicious.

Also this is all very good news. Hollande seems like a good guy.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 02:46:34 PM

Hollande can actually (and purposedly) be funny (and doesn't need 20 guys to write his jokes :P, he makes it alone), well, the main good thing of this election might be the psychological effect, oh gosh, would become far less tense, at least a for a few coming days...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on May 06, 2012, 02:47:26 PM

Oh, sure. But already mentioned. Haute-Loire as well.

Quote
Cider from the Wetterau, pilsener from Karlsruhe, plum schnapps from god knows where, spirit of quince by Alde Gott.

And you're still capable of making halfway intelligent comments about elections. Quite a trooper.
But only halfway.

Also, buzz starting to wear off. Hmmm... I still have some applewine kicking around the house... also an unopened bottle of... no, better not to go there. Gotta work tomorrow. (Danish Aquavit, in case you wondered, but I won't.)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: CLARENCE 2015! on May 06, 2012, 02:48:37 PM
I have a question- I read Hollande divorced Segolene Royal...did that cause any dynamic? Did Royal endorse him?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on May 06, 2012, 02:48:45 PM
Why isn't Belfort in the Alsace région?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 02:50:15 PM
I have a question- I read Hollande divorced Segolene Royal...did that cause any dynamic? Did Royal endorse him?

She surprisingly turned sane, and yes, did, she even has been one his biggest fighters.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on May 06, 2012, 02:51:27 PM
I have a question- I read Hollande divorced Segolene Royal...did that cause any dynamic? Did Royal endorse him?

She surprisingly turned sane, and yes, did, she even has been one his biggest fighters.
The separation was in 2007, of course, but yeah the fact that they used to be an item is one of those things you try to wrap your head around, fail, and then forget all about until clarence reminds you of it. :)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 06, 2012, 02:53:31 PM
Why isn't Belfort in the Alsace région?

It was, but, because of their "heroic resistance" in 1870 war, Prussia led them to France, while taking the rest of Alsace, if I remember well.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 02:54:23 PM
Castres is always so national:

Hollande 51,2
Sarkozy 48,8

Oh, Sarkozy just confirmed he will never run for Président again, ah well, if in the future we get MLP as the biggest figurehead fo the Right/Far-Right, who knows, maybe a lot of people call him to 'pleaaase come back!', hmm, would still be surprising, nobody imagines calling Bush 43 back, right? Then, it would be defnitely over for him, once again:

()


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: rob in cal on May 06, 2012, 02:55:25 PM
Where does Hollande stand on the immigration issue.  Is he for keeping things similar to now or for more immigration?  (I'm guessing he's not for less immigration per year).  Just curious in that he clearly won the vote of hundreds of thousands of MLP voters today, and since immigration is one key factor in the NF vote was wondering how he appealed to them.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 06, 2012, 02:56:24 PM
I have a question- I read Hollande divorced Segolene Royal...did that cause any dynamic? Did Royal endorse him?

Hollande and Royal were never married in first place.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 06, 2012, 02:57:18 PM
Back again after drinking some celebratory cider from Brittany. Very nice as well.

So, anyway, a point of interest already: Hollande carries the Territoire de Belfort.

Not by far.
Sarkozy's map seems to be (again) more FN than in the first round.

Sarkozy won Manche only by 50.1 !


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on May 06, 2012, 02:58:01 PM
Back again after drinking some celebratory cider from Brittany. Very nice as well.

So, anyway, a point of interest already: Hollande carries the Territoire de Belfort.

Not by far.
Sarkozy's map seems to be (again) more FN than in the first round.

Sarkozy won Manche only by 50.1 !
Lol.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on May 06, 2012, 02:59:01 PM
Where does Hollande stand on the immigration issue.  Is he for keeping things similar to now or for more immigration?  (I'm guessing he's not for less immigration per year).  Just curious in that he clearly won the vote of hundreds of thousands of MLP voters today, and since immigration is one key factor in the NF vote was wondering how he appealed to them.

All I really remember about this is that both candidates are ridiculously racist against the Roma (as most of the population of Europe seems to still be for some inexplicable reason).


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 06, 2012, 03:00:46 PM
Back again after drinking some celebratory cider from Brittany. Very nice as well.

So, anyway, a point of interest already: Hollande carries the Territoire de Belfort.

Not by far.
Sarkozy's map seems to be (again) more FN than in the first round.

Sarkozy won Manche only by 50.1 !

You are probably happy, Fab.

"Entre 51 et 52 pour Hollande, ce serait une grosse déception et un Mélenchon et des Verts revenus dans le jeu législatif, ainsi qu’une droite soulagée et plus à même d’affronter le problème FN."

After all, maybe Buisson was right : France is structurally right-wing.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 03:01:05 PM
Where does Hollande stand on the immigration issue.  Is he for keeping things similar to now or for more immigration?  (I'm guessing he's not for less immigration per year).  Just curious in that he clearly won the vote of hundreds of thousands of MLP voters today, and since immigration is one key factor in the NF vote was wondering how he appealed to them.

MLP definitely won the battle of ideas (with a big help of Sarkozy), PS inflexed its traditional positions on immigration, at least in the rhetoric, we have to see what happens in real now, and Hollande globally said something like he would control immigration more and just take what we need in term of employment.

I don't know if there is a serious analysis about the actual report of MLP voters so far, but the point being that she played a lot on the defeat of the Right, so some people might have done a strategical vote, but not sure it would be that big...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on May 06, 2012, 03:02:06 PM
Hollande falls not far short of adding what seems to have never been pink (at least, not since the President's of the Fifth Republic were directly elected); Sarkozy winning Manche 50.1 - 49.9


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 03:02:47 PM
Where does Hollande stand on the immigration issue.  Is he for keeping things similar to now or for more immigration?  (I'm guessing he's not for less immigration per year).  Just curious in that he clearly won the vote of hundreds of thousands of MLP voters today, and since immigration is one key factor in the NF vote was wondering how he appealed to them.

All I really remember about this is that both candidates are ridiculously racist against

No, you will never find any racist word of attitude from Hollande.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2012, 03:03:07 PM
Pas-de-Calais is 56% for Hollande.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on May 06, 2012, 03:04:53 PM
So are these numbers going to hold at Hollande doing significantly better than the exit polls predicted? Because it looks like the remaining areas aren't that pro-Sarkozy.

ed: and as I say that a big dump comes in and Hollande drops to 53.7%


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on May 06, 2012, 03:05:14 PM
Where does Hollande stand on the immigration issue.  Is he for keeping things similar to now or for more immigration?  (I'm guessing he's not for less immigration per year).  Just curious in that he clearly won the vote of hundreds of thousands of MLP voters today, and since immigration is one key factor in the NF vote was wondering how he appealed to them.

All I really remember about this is that both candidates are ridiculously racist against

No, you will never find any racist word of attitude from Hollande.

I seem to recall Hollande trying to outdo Sarkozy on extravagant promises to evict Roma from such-and-such a place at least once. Am I misremembering? (I hope I am, because I otherwise quite like Hollande.)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 03:06:01 PM
Oh wow, all those South-West dpts, a lot between 58 and 65, South-West still at it! yay!


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 06, 2012, 03:06:58 PM
So are these numbers going to hold at Hollande doing significantly better than the exit polls predicted? Because it looks like the remaining areas aren't that pro-Sarkozy.

!
Western IdF, Côte-d'Azur, Vendée, Alsace, Rhône aren't in yet.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on May 06, 2012, 03:10:26 PM
So are these numbers going to hold at Hollande doing significantly better than the exit polls predicted? Because it looks like the remaining areas aren't that pro-Sarkozy.

!
Western IdF, Côte-d'Azur, Vendée, Alsace, Rhône aren't in yet.

Yeah but neither are Ile de France, Toulose, Bordeaux...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Andrea on May 06, 2012, 03:11:18 PM
57.85% for Hollande in Hénin-Beaumont


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 03:12:07 PM
So are these numbers going to hold at Hollande doing significantly better than the exit polls predicted? Because it looks like the remaining areas aren't that pro-Sarkozy.

!
Western IdF, Côte-d'Azur, Vendée, Alsace, Rhône aren't in yet.

Western IdF: Hollande did big in Hauts-de-Seine in the 1st round

Côte d'Azur: well, yeah, BdR too maybe, even if he did relatively well in the 1st round too

Vendée: Sand ^^

Alsace: ah well, yeah, 'il reste [toujours] une région en haut à droite' ^^

Rhône: is Rhône anything else than Lyon? Grappes don't vote ^^

So, well, Hollande can stille go up.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 06, 2012, 03:14:46 PM
Lyon voted for Sarkozy in the first round and Hollande got awful results in the rural areas.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 06, 2012, 03:16:22 PM
And I forgot the Savoies.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 03:17:21 PM
Meurthe-et-Moselle: Hollande 53,1

Moselle: Sarkozy 53,5

Interesting


Oho, I had missed that one, still, we are in an anti-Sarkozy perspective vote today.


Snow ^^


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Andrea on May 06, 2012, 03:17:53 PM
So are these numbers going to hold at Hollande doing significantly better than the exit polls predicted? Because it looks like the remaining areas aren't that pro-Sarkozy.

!
Western IdF, Côte-d'Azur, Vendée, Alsace, Rhône aren't in yet.

Western IdF: Hollande did big in Hauts-de-Seine in the 1st round

Côte d'Azur: well, yeah, BdR too maybe, even if he did relatively well in the 1st round too

Vendée: Sand ^^

Alsace: ah well, yeah, 'il reste [toujours] une région en haut à droite' ^^

Rhône: is Rhône anything else than Lyon? Grappes don't vote ^^

So, well, Hollande can stille go up.

Public Senat gives Hollande 51.24% Sarkozy 48.76% at the moment with just over 30,000,000 voters reported.
http://www.publicsenat.fr/lcp/politique/carte-des-elections-presidentielles


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on May 06, 2012, 03:21:33 PM
^weird, their map is similar to google's but the numbers are very different


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 03:22:25 PM
lol Meaux (Coppé's city, Seine-et-Marne):

Hollande 54,4!

And it's a lil island in a blue sea there, poor Jean-François, who was supposed to be the 'next leader of the Right', his political carrier as a leader might end in one mouth...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Andrea on May 06, 2012, 03:23:39 PM
^weird, their map is similar to google's but the numbers are very different

I suppose they include municipalities already reported within department not yet finished (but they will add them in the map only when the department has everything counted).


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: ZuWo on May 06, 2012, 03:25:36 PM
^weird, their map is similar to google's but the numbers are very different

It seems the "Public Senat" page already displays the results for "Haut-Rhin", which has a large population and went heavily for Sarkozy (63-37%)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 03:26:18 PM
Vendée:

Sarkozy 55, indeed.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 06, 2012, 03:26:32 PM
Not surprising, Haut-Rhin is more German than French, in the mindset.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 03:27:34 PM
Aube:

Sarkozy 57,4, best dpt score I've seen for him so far.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 03:33:51 PM
Other big one for the Right/Far-Right:

Ain

Sarkozy 57,2


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 06, 2012, 03:36:20 PM
This is a victory, and I feel sad.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 03:37:01 PM
Ah, Sarkozy's record so far:

Corse-du-Sud:

57,6

This is a victory, and I feel sad.

Keep some sadness for the 10th and 17th of May...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 06, 2012, 03:38:26 PM
Ah, Sarkozy's record so far:

Corse-du-Sud:

57,6

This is a victory, and I feel sad.

Keep some sadness for the 10th and 17th of May...

It's june.

And apparently a poll says 31% PS, 30% UMP 18% FN, so I know what I can expect.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2012, 03:39:42 PM
()


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 03:41:59 PM
Ah, Sarkozy's record so far:

Corse-du-Sud:

57,6

This is a victory, and I feel sad.

Keep some sadness for the 10th and 17th of May...

It's june.

And apparently a poll says 31% PS, 30% UMP 18% FN, so I know what I can expect.

Oh yes, sorry, I meant it, is that this PS 'victory' that makes me upside down??!

Oh, and, polls for this wouldn't mean a lot so far, we have to see the rise of this glorious new 'Bleu Marine' movement before, FN doesn't exist anymore.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bacon King on May 06, 2012, 03:43:58 PM
What is Haute-Savoie like, and why is Sarko breaking 60% there?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2012, 03:45:17 PM
Nord 52.3% for Hollande.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 06, 2012, 03:45:57 PM
Haute-Savoie is like Switzerland, the bank secrecy removed.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 03:46:06 PM
What is Haute-Savoie like, and why is Sarko breaking 60% there?

Ow...

'Petit-Bourgeois mentality'...

Maybe a 'Switzerland belt', well, it's kinda the same culture...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 06, 2012, 03:48:43 PM
Ah, Sarkozy's record so far:

Corse-du-Sud:

57,6

This is a victory, and I feel sad.

Keep some sadness for the 10th and 17th of May...

It's june.

And apparently a poll says 31% PS, 30% UMP 18% FN, so I know what I can expect.

Oh yes, sorry, I meant it, is that this PS 'victory' that makes me upside down??!

Oh, and, polls for this wouldn't mean a lot so far, we have to see the rise of this glorious new 'Bleu Marine' movement before, FN doesn't exist anymore.

It's pretty clear how things can go now.

People didn't vote because they like Hollande (and this I can understand), people didn't vote for him because they think he had good ideas, people didn't vote for him because Hollande led the best campaign. Hell, people probably didn't even vote for him because they think Sarkozy is a bad president. They voted for him, barely, because they didn't like Sarkozy. And even then, maybe they just voted Hollande because there's a crisis and they're pissed off at the incumbent.

Whatever will happen now, Hollande begins his term in the worst possible way.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 06, 2012, 03:49:30 PM
Back again after drinking some celebratory cider from Brittany. Very nice as well.

So, anyway, a point of interest already: Hollande carries the Territoire de Belfort.

Not by far.
Sarkozy's map seems to be (again) more FN than in the first round.

Sarkozy won Manche only by 50.1 !

You are probably happy, Fab.

"Entre 51 et 52 pour Hollande, ce serait une grosse déception et un Mélenchon et des Verts revenus dans le jeu législatif, ainsi qu’une droite soulagée et plus à même d’affronter le problème FN."

After all, maybe Buisson was right : France is structurally right-wing.

Well, Hollande himself said that below 52, it would be "étriquée" as a victory (narrow).


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 06, 2012, 03:51:50 PM
Back again after drinking some celebratory cider from Brittany. Very nice as well.

So, anyway, a point of interest already: Hollande carries the Territoire de Belfort.

Not by far.
Sarkozy's map seems to be (again) more FN than in the first round.

Sarkozy won Manche only by 50.1 !

You are probably happy, Fab.

"Entre 51 et 52 pour Hollande, ce serait une grosse déception et un Mélenchon et des Verts revenus dans le jeu législatif, ainsi qu’une droite soulagée et plus à même d’affronter le problème FN."

After all, maybe Buisson was right : France is structurally right-wing.

Well, Hollande himself said that below 52, it would be "étriquée" as a victory (narrow).

And I could not agree more.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Andrea on May 06, 2012, 04:01:06 PM
Ah, Sarkozy's record so far:

Corse-du-Sud:

57,6

This is a victory, and I feel sad.

Keep some sadness for the 10th and 17th of May...

It's june.

And apparently a poll says 31% PS, 30% UMP 18% FN, so I know what I can expect.

Oh yes, sorry, I meant it, is that this PS 'victory' that makes me upside down??!

Oh, and, polls for this wouldn't mean a lot so far, we have to see the rise of this glorious new 'Bleu Marine' movement before, FN doesn't exist anymore.

It's pretty clear how things can go now.

People didn't vote because they like Hollande (and this I can understand), people didn't vote for him because they think he had good ideas, people didn't vote for him because Hollande led the best campaign. Hell, people probably didn't even vote for him because they think Sarkozy is a bad president. They voted for him, barely, because they didn't like Sarkozy. And even then, maybe they just voted Hollande because there's a crisis and they're pissed off at the incumbent.

Whatever will happen now, Hollande begins his term in the worst possible way.

Celebrate at least tonight! You will think about this from tomorrow :-)



Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 04:01:06 PM
Mélenchon announced a total independence for Législatives, Front de Gauche will present candidates everywhere.

I hope those bloody damned French 'Commies' (sometimes they really deserve such a nomination) of PCF will stop to be the good old puppet used by PS when they need it and break the FdG alliance.

Ah well, I guess in several places FdG might succeed to do something alone.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2012, 04:02:46 PM
Celebrate at least tonight! You will think about this from tomorrow :-)

This is excellent advice, yes.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 04:03:19 PM
Yeah, Haut-Rhin finally confirmed at 63,3 for Sarkozy.

Breakable record for the Right/Far-Right tonight?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bacon King on May 06, 2012, 04:04:05 PM
New best Sarko department: Haut-Rhin, with 63.3%. Border regions sure do hate them a socialist.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 06, 2012, 04:04:37 PM
Mélenchon announced a total independence for Législatives, Front de Gauche will present candidates everywhere.

I somehow doubt than Pierre Laurent and PCF leadership will accept all Mélenchon orders.
That's a department, not a province, BK.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: ZuWo on May 06, 2012, 04:04:55 PM
Yeah, Haut-Rhin finally confirmed at 63,3 for Sarkozy.

Breakable record for the Right/Far-Right tonight?

I see that the level of sanity among the French increases the closer we move to the Swiss border. :P


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 04:05:44 PM
Border regions sure do hate them a socialist.

Nah, depends on borders, and apparently on mountains too, Pyrénées/Spanish borders are safe.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 06, 2012, 04:06:30 PM
Yeah, Haut-Rhin finally confirmed at 63,3 for Sarkozy.

Breakable record for the Right/Far-Right tonight?

I see that the level of sanity among the French increases the closer we move to the Swiss border. :P

You may want to expell the Swiss areas bordering Belfort, then.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2012, 04:06:47 PM
()


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 04:08:10 PM
Mélenchon announced a total independence for Législatives, Front de Gauche will present candidates everywhere.

I somehow doubt than Pierre Laurent and PCF leadership will accept all Mélenchon orders.

Well, in the campaign to get the Presidential nomination in PCF, Mélenchon actually became quite diplomat, so, who knows, maybe the PCF has not totally buried the concept of evolution...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Beet on May 06, 2012, 04:08:17 PM
So he's winning basically the same areas this time as the first round.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Leftbehind on May 06, 2012, 04:08:42 PM
lol at John Simpson's report for the BBC. Getting a reaction in the market Hollande visited, the first person's wearing a striped top and the second a beret.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 06, 2012, 04:08:53 PM
Sarkozy wins Savoie 53-47.
Surprised. I expected a bigger margin.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: ZuWo on May 06, 2012, 04:08:59 PM
Yeah, Haut-Rhin finally confirmed at 63,3 for Sarkozy.

Breakable record for the Right/Far-Right tonight?

I see that the level of sanity among the French increases the closer we move to the Swiss border. :P

You may want to expell the Swiss areas bordering Belfort, then.

This territory seems like an anomaly anyway. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 06, 2012, 04:10:39 PM
86.1% reporting

Hollande: 52.3% (11,836,412)
Poison Dwarf: 47.7% (10,774,161)


This is good :)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 06, 2012, 04:10:49 PM
So he's winning basically the same areas this time as the first round.

Yes, for now, only 6 departments changed hands.

Sarkozy -> Hollande
Alpes-de-Haute-Provence
Hautes-Alpes
Indre-et-Loire

Hollande -> Sarkozy
Haute-Saône
Seine-et-Marne

Le Pen -> Sarkozy
Gard


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 04:11:02 PM
lol at John Simpson's report for the BBC. Getting a reaction in the market Hollande visited, the first person's wearing a striped top and the second a beret.

He asked them to wear it. Anglos are lost if they don't have it in France.

Well, Corrèze!


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2012, 04:11:18 PM
Hollande won Mulhouse.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 04:15:26 PM

lol, wow, now this is an island.

Mulhouse people decided to turn less ridiculous than Bockel...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 06, 2012, 04:15:55 PM

Which isn't surprising, but is making me afraid about the rural areas of Haut-Rhin


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 04:18:08 PM

Which isn't surprising, but is making me afraid about the rural areas of Haut-Rhin

Yeah, was just passing the mouse over the dpt, rare to see figures beginning by figures bellow 5, and all is blue, indeed.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 04:20:04 PM
Haut-Rhin succeeds to make the 56 of Vaucluse for the Right/Far-Right almost low...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on May 06, 2012, 04:22:27 PM
Sarkozy wins Savoie 53-47.
Surprised. I expected a bigger margin.

Here's why: http://electionsfrance.wordpress.com/2012/02/26/political-profile-savoie/


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 06, 2012, 04:23:34 PM
Hollande gains Maine-et-Loire (Angers) 51-49. Sarko left in the first round there.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 06, 2012, 04:26:06 PM
So, now, most of what's left is big urban departments, expect Vienne, which is slow for some reason.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2012, 04:30:24 PM
Val-de-Marne is in: 56.5 for Hollande.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 04:31:39 PM
Ah well, it always has a fancy effect:

()

Place de la Bastille, Paris

You can't see it well on this picture but it's amusing how all around the foot of the column there are a lot of different Arab flags (especially Maghrebi ones indeed, but not only).


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Andrea on May 06, 2012, 04:32:55 PM
Hollande wins Japon and Cambogie. Sarkozy leads in China
Hollande takes Canada and Sarkozy in USA. I can't recall what they said about South America (Argentina was for Hollande but Sarkozy won something else)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 06, 2012, 04:34:20 PM
Hollande wins Loire by 4000 votes while winning Sainté by 12000. So, rural areas voted quite strongly for Sarkozy.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 04:34:22 PM
Wow, Le Parisien says Sarkozy does 50,5 in Hauts-de-Seine.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2012, 04:35:22 PM
Var is over 60% for Poison Dwarf.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 04:36:26 PM
Hey, Aude is 56 for Hollande, I like it.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 06, 2012, 04:37:08 PM
Sarko wind 63-37 in Var.
Oh, the Var Rouge is far away in history, now.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 04:38:16 PM
Cannes:

Sarkozy aka the Right/Far-Right: 78%


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on May 06, 2012, 04:39:20 PM

Fairly weak result in an historical context.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 04:40:42 PM

Yeah, but in a contemporary context I like it. :P

We'd still have to see Législatives though.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bacon King on May 06, 2012, 04:41:17 PM
Mélenchon announced a total independence for Législatives, Front de Gauche will present candidates everywhere.

I somehow doubt than Pierre Laurent and PCF leadership will accept all Mélenchon orders.
That's a department, not a province, BK.

First off, you're quick! I edited out my mistake probably ten seconds after I posted it :P

Second, Front de Gauche's parties finalized back in 2011 their agreement for contesting the 2012 legislative elections. ~80% of their candidates will be from the PCF, ~20% from the PdG, though they'll contest a handful of constituencies with minor party members and FdG-affiliated leftist independents. Also, IIRC the agreement gave PCF a disproportionate amount of "winnable" constituencies, so FdG MP's after the election will probably be like 90-95% PCF anyway. I doubt Pierre Laurent will really be objecting to anything; FdG unity certainly helps PCF more than it hurts.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on May 06, 2012, 04:44:32 PM
Pierre Laurent is an inanimate tool, basically.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Andrea on May 06, 2012, 04:46:16 PM
Paris
1er arrondissement: Sarkozy 52.17%
2 arrondissement Hollande 57.6%
3e arrondissement Hollande 61.35%
4e arrondissement Hollande 54.96%
5e arrondissement Hollande 56.22%
6e arrondissement  Sarkozy 57.66%
7e arrondissement Sarkozy 71.76%
8e arrondissement Sarkozy 72.47%
9e arrondissement Hollande 51.19%
10e arrondissement Hollande 69.39%
15e arrondissemente Sarkozy 54.5%
18e arrondissement Hollande 70.31%


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 04:46:30 PM
Mélenchon announced a total independence for Législatives, Front de Gauche will present candidates everywhere.

I somehow doubt than Pierre Laurent and PCF leadership will accept all Mélenchon orders.
That's a department, not a province, BK.

First off, you're quick! I edited out my mistake probably ten seconds after I posted it :P

Second, Front de Gauche's parties finalized back in 2011 their agreement for contesting the 2012 legislative elections. ~80% of their candidates will be from the PCF, ~20% from the PdG, though they'll contest a handful of constituencies with minor party members and FdG-affiliated leftist independents. Also, IIRC the agreement gave PCF a disproportionate amount of "winnable" constituencies, so FdG MP's after the election will probably be like 90-95% PCF anyway. I doubt Pierre Laurent will really be objecting to anything; FdG unity certainly helps PCF more than it hurts.

Never underestimate the capacity of PCF to 'puppetize' themselves to PS, and PS has all to win to see weaker possible FdG. That being said, with the big dynamic that Mélenchon created in this campaign, and given that it made PCF go from 1,5 to 11 in 5 years in a Presidential election, they might consider some kind of change in the way they 'do' politics...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 04:47:33 PM
18e arrondissement Hollande 70.31%

lol, love it, they broke Corrèze.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 04:49:50 PM
()


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 04:55:16 PM
And what do all those youngs are chanting?

WE HAVE WON! WE HAVE WON! WE HAVE WON!

...?

No, they are chanting:

SARKO T'ES FOUTU! SARKO T'ES FOUTU! SARKO T'ES FOUTU!

(way to say: you're done/over/out)

And well, they can also have a Yael Naïm concert show for free right now ^^, amongst other singers...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Beet on May 06, 2012, 04:57:02 PM
Wow Alpes-Maritimes.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2012, 04:59:02 PM
()


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 06, 2012, 04:59:14 PM
And what do all those youngs are chanting?

WE HAVE WON! WE HAVE WON! WE HAVE WON!

...?

No, they are chanting:

SARKO T'ES FOUTU! SARKO T'ES FOUTU! SARKO T'ES FOUTU!

(way to say: you're done/over/out)

And well, they can also have a Yael Naïm concert show for free right now ^^, amongst other singers...

Thought it was hearing "SARKO! C'est fini!"


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 06, 2012, 05:00:31 PM
Sarko wins Hauts-de-Seine by 8000 votes. 50.5-49.5


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2012, 05:01:11 PM
Rhone is 52% for the Poison Dwarf.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 05:01:34 PM

They broke Haut-Rhin!!

()

2007 poster

Together, everything becomes possible.

And what do all those youngs are chanting?

WE HAVE WON! WE HAVE WON! WE HAVE WON!

...?

No, they are chanting:

SARKO T'ES FOUTU! SARKO T'ES FOUTU! SARKO T'ES FOUTU!

(way to say: you're done/over/out)

And well, they can also have a Yael Naïm concert show for free right now ^^, amongst other singers...

Thought it was hearing "SARKO! C'est fini!"

Oh French language is wonderfully subtle, it allows declinations ;P.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Andrea on May 06, 2012, 05:03:18 PM
Yvelines carried by Sarkozy with 54%

Bouches du Rhones will be for Sarkozy and I think the remaining departments to finish can all break for Hollande


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 05:04:16 PM
Tulle might have broken everybody on the Left:

75% for Hollande!


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 05:09:50 PM
()

Grand-Place, Lille

(...dunno if they have a free concert there... ;D)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 06, 2012, 05:13:30 PM
84.2% for Sarko in Neuilly!


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 05:15:30 PM

lol, almost a reversed Chirac-Le Pen 2002, 'no pasaran!'.



Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 05:16:27 PM
they just can't help:

()

...and a France2 guy just fell from his moto...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 05:17:26 PM
()

Ipsos/Le Monde, made between the 3rd and the 5th of May


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 06, 2012, 05:18:35 PM
Any Brits know which shops'll be selling French papers tomorrow?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 05:21:06 PM
Hollande doing 53,12 in Lyon.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 05:27:36 PM
Sorry if it's hard to translate all what it can contain, but Libération made a very good one (as often):

()


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: rob in cal on May 06, 2012, 05:28:59 PM
Anyone have a feeling about how the narrowness of Hollande's victory will impact the legislative elections.  I'm wondering if the rightwing parties will be reenergized because Sarkozy's loss wasnt as big as many expected.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 05:29:55 PM
Esthetically good L'Express:

()

the 'historique' bit might be a bit too much though...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 06, 2012, 05:32:59 PM
Only Bouches-du-Rhone, Haute-Garrone, Essonne, Seine-Saint-Denis and, naturally, Paris, left to report.

With 97.3% reporting:

Hollande: 51.3% (15,696,539)
Sarkozy: 48.7% (14,916,956)

Come on, pull at least 52%!


Edit: Forgot about French abroad


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 05:34:17 PM
Anyone have a feeling about how the narrowness of Hollande's victory will impact the legislative elections.  I'm wondering if the rightwing parties will be reenergized because Sarkozy's loss wasnt as big as many expected.

Well, the Right/Far-Right is entering in the storm now, no matter the score of this election, a storm that began on the 22nd of April...

And there is not 'the right wing parties', there are 'some different right-wing parties'.

And maybe some new things happening on the Centre too.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 05:37:29 PM

Yes, it's like a big city, about 1,5/2 millions people, don't remember the exact number who have subscribed to electoral lists this year.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 06, 2012, 05:39:35 PM
Some random stuff:

Sarkozy is the second President of the Fifth Republic to be denied a second term (along with VGE) and the first whose single term was limited to five years

Hollande will be the first President of the Fifth Republic without previous cabinet experience (Pompidou never was a minister as well, but served as Prime Minister)

Hollande will be the second President of the Fifth Republic (after Poison Dwarf) who did not participate in politics under de Gaulle (duh)

Hollande will be the first President living in a domestic partnership

Finally, Hollande will be the first Socialist President during a lifetime of, probably, a half of Atlas posters :P


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 06, 2012, 05:41:42 PM
Hollande wins Seine-Saint-Denis 65.3% to 34.7% ;D

Correze lost it's first place, lol.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 06, 2012, 05:44:52 PM
Only Bouches-du-Rhone, Paris and French abroad not reported yet.


Haute-Garrone:

Hollande: 58.8%
Sarkozy: 41.2%

Essonne:

Hollande: 53.4%
Sarkozy: 46.6%


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Andrea on May 06, 2012, 05:46:40 PM
Only Bouches-du-Rhone, Paris and French abroad not reported yet.


Haute-Garrone:

Hollande: 58.8%
Sarkozy: 41.2%

Essonne:

Hollande: 53.4%
Sarkozy: 46.6%


Paris
Hollande 55.6
Sarkozy 44.4


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 06, 2012, 05:52:38 PM

Yes, it's like a big city, about 1,5/2 millions people, don't remember the exact number who have subscribed to electoral lists this year.

It's all Hashemite's fault: they are still wondering how to count his vote!


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 06, 2012, 05:53:54 PM
Remember 2009 when these guys were nearly beaten by the Greens? Tonight's win is incredible.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 05:54:16 PM
Hollande wins Seine-Saint-Denis 65.3% to 34.7% ;D

Correze lost it's first place, lol.

Tulle saved its honnor with 75 :P

And speaking about Corrèze:

()

'We did it! Drinking water arrived in Tulle!'

...'lol Corrèze'.

Oh gosh, Hollande exciting crowds with CHANGE! on La Bastille, and using totally empty expression brought up by Sarkozy out of nowhere during this campaign 'Peuple de France', nobody ever used this thing before, so creux.

And speaking about Mitterand (oh gosh, the shadow of 1981 really doesn't help to go ahead, seems like everybody tries to do 'like in 1981'.

Ok, he turns lyrical and megalomaniac now:

'I am the President of French Youth and French Justice!'

'There are people that are watching us all over Europe to bring a big change, a New Era is coming!' (...yeah...so you better have the means not to disappoint them...)

End. Short.

Less ridiculous than Sarkozy on La Concorde 5 years ago though (wasn't hard though), and La Marseillaise instead of Mireille Mathieu might help!, quite energic, but I hope that someone told him that, unlike what Obama and Sarkozy thought, beautiful lyric energic speeches don't necessarily create a desired reality...('magic thought' is trendy nowadays, isn't it?)

Well, I can only wish the best, and that could hardly be worse than what we had before, but I can't wait to see them dealing with reality now...

Vibrant Marseillaise.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 05:56:02 PM
Remember 2009 when these guys were nearly beaten by the Greens? Tonight's win is incredible.

That's one of the biggest Sarkozy's achievement, along with Libya.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 06, 2012, 05:56:50 PM
Bouches-du-Rhone:

Sarkozy: 52.8%
Hollande: 47.2%


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 06, 2012, 05:57:03 PM
So, Hollande finished below Mitterrand'81. Huzzah.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 06, 2012, 05:59:03 PM
Almost identically. Mitterrand 1981: 51.76%. Hollande in 2012 (with 99.9% reporting): 51.7%


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Andrea on May 06, 2012, 06:00:54 PM
Hollande wins Seine-Saint-Denis 65.3% to 34.7% ;D

Correze lost it's first place, lol.

Tulle saved its honnor with 75 :P


but Saint Denis municipality: 77.78%
All those Royals buried in the cathedral are turning in their grave every time


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Meeker on May 06, 2012, 06:01:24 PM
Is the ex-pat vote expected tonight? Or is one of those things that'll take them a few days to figure out?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Beet on May 06, 2012, 06:01:30 PM
Anyone have a feeling about how the narrowness of Hollande's victory will impact the legislative elections.  I'm wondering if the rightwing parties will be reenergized because Sarkozy's loss wasnt as big as many expected.

Well, the Right/Far-Right is entering in the storm now, no matter the score of this election, a storm that began on the 22nd of April...

And there is not 'the right wing parties', there are 'some different right-wing parties'.

And maybe some new things happening on the Centre too.

How to deal with the Right is simple, IMO. The Left must embrace French identity, get tough on immigration. No one likes to feel their culture under threat.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 06, 2012, 06:03:55 PM
Oh gosh, Hollande exciting crowds with CHANGE! on La Bastille, and using totally empty expression brought up by Sarkozy out of nowhere during this campaign 'Peuple de France', nobody ever used this thing before, so creux.

Philippe Corti used it in Intervilles, a few years ago (but I doubt than many here will understand of what I'm talking).


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on May 06, 2012, 06:08:29 PM
So do I win?

Quote
—-London Mayor Boris Johnson will be re-elected, defeating Ken Livingstone with between 50.5% and 52.5% of the vote.

—- François Hollande will be elected President of France, defeating the incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy, but by a narrower margin than expected (about 51.5% to 48.5% in the second round of voting).

http://leftie501.wordpress.com/2012/01/09/my-2012-predictions/


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 06, 2012, 06:10:36 PM
Almost identically. Mitterrand 1981: 51.76%. Hollande in 2012 (with 99.9% reporting): 51.7%

With French abroad, I hope it will be 51.5, not more :P

Don't be too sad, Antonio.
When you see the first polls for legislative elections, a 1997 scenario is likely.
Of course, between now and June 10th and 17th, there will be many impediments for him: Merkel, Moody's and Fitch, financiel markets, problems in Afghanistan, Melenchon, all the potential ministers who won't be ministers, etc.
Still, I'm doubtful the left won't be able to have a majority.
The problem: will the PS be able to have a mjority on its own ?
How have they been so stupid to give so many potential seats to the Greens ?!
Irepeat myself, but...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 06:10:54 PM
Anyone have a feeling about how the narrowness of Hollande's victory will impact the legislative elections.  I'm wondering if the rightwing parties will be reenergized because Sarkozy's loss wasnt as big as many expected.

Well, the Right/Far-Right is entering in the storm now, no matter the score of this election, a storm that began on the 22nd of April...

And there is not 'the right wing parties', there are 'some different right-wing parties'.

And maybe some new things happening on the Centre too.

How to deal with the Right is simple, IMO. The Left must embrace French identity, get tough on immigration. No one likes to feel their culture under threat.

Once again, you don't know enough Marine Le Pen, to think it's easy to counter her on those topics, and Sarkozy having made a huge 'French kiss' (amusing to use it here) to her ideas during the 2 last years while looking far less credible than her doing blatant pitiful electoralism (you should watch a video compilation of someone called Claude Guéant, amongst other ones), the Left can do nothing against the groth of those ideas here.

Also, about those kinds of topics, and overall French identity, it's something they work on since 5 years, Ségolène Royal did a lot of jobs on those topics, and while they all loathed at her, they all kissed her ideas and are using it now.

Once again, Nicolas and Ségolène both lost, but the 'ideas' of both of them won.

Also, imo, trying to blatantly suck at electoralism helps nobody, no matter people agree with you or not, I think most of the time they prefer people with convictions than people who try pitifully seduce them (hello Obama! how are you??).

Oh gosh, Hollande exciting crowds with CHANGE! on La Bastille, and using totally empty expression brought up by Sarkozy out of nowhere during this campaign 'Peuple de France', nobody ever used this thing before, so creux.

Philippe Corti used it in Intervilles, a few years ago (but I doubt than many here will understand of what I'm talking).

lol, thanks for this historical record :).

Loved it as a kid, should watch again. ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Beet on May 06, 2012, 06:17:07 PM
Anyone have a feeling about how the narrowness of Hollande's victory will impact the legislative elections.  I'm wondering if the rightwing parties will be reenergized because Sarkozy's loss wasnt as big as many expected.

Well, the Right/Far-Right is entering in the storm now, no matter the score of this election, a storm that began on the 22nd of April...

And there is not 'the right wing parties', there are 'some different right-wing parties'.

And maybe some new things happening on the Centre too.

How to deal with the Right is simple, IMO. The Left must embrace French identity, get tough on immigration. No one likes to feel their culture under threat.

Once again, you don't know enough Marine Le Pen, to think it's easy to counter her on those topics, and Sarkozy having made a huge 'French kiss' (amusing to use it here) to her ideas during the 2 last years while looking far less credible than her doing blatant pitiful electoralism (you should watch a video compilation of someone called Claude Guéant, amongst other ones), the Left can do nothing against the groth of those ideas here.

Eh, who says it must be only electoralism without convictions? If you look at French history it is not barren for people on the Left at all... why should French identity be surrendered to the fascists? It reminds me of how American liberals fail to dispute conservative interpretations of the US Constitution.

I agree I do not know about Marine Le Pen as you, I just look at the comments on websites in English, such as the Guardian. I note that most people on the Guardian have positive things to say about her... on a left-wing British website? Why do most people have positive things to say about her? Because, they say, a country has the right to defend its identity, culture. I only know what I read. But perhaps that helps explain the success of FN.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 06, 2012, 06:18:13 PM
Almost identically. Mitterrand 1981: 51.76%. Hollande in 2012 (with 99.9% reporting): 51.7%

With French abroad, I hope it will be 51.5, not more :P

Don't be too sad, Antonio.
When you see the first polls for legislative elections, a 1997 scenario is likely.
Of course, between now and June 10th and 17th, there will be many impediments for him: Merkel, Moody's and Fitch, financiel markets, problems in Afghanistan, Melenchon, all the potential ministers who won't be ministers, etc.
Still, I'm doubtful the left won't be able to have a majority.
The problem: will the PS be able to have a mjority on its own ?
How have they been so stupid to give so many potential seats to the Greens ?!
Irepeat myself, but...

Meh, I don't know what to expect anymore. I'm on "wait and see" mode from now on. What I think we need ? We need an absolute majority for the PS, and a solid left win. Ideally 350-400 seats, of which over 300 for the PS. What I think will happen ? No idea. Hell, the right might even pull a win. The voters seem to have gone utterly crazy...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 06, 2012, 06:29:14 PM
Let's see (tomorrow, it's late now ;)) the polls for the legislatives, the result polls and the maps. Unfortunately, it will be hard for the right, I think.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 06:30:21 PM
Anyone have a feeling about how the narrowness of Hollande's victory will impact the legislative elections.  I'm wondering if the rightwing parties will be reenergized because Sarkozy's loss wasnt as big as many expected.

Well, the Right/Far-Right is entering in the storm now, no matter the score of this election, a storm that began on the 22nd of April...

And there is not 'the right wing parties', there are 'some different right-wing parties'.

And maybe some new things happening on the Centre too.

How to deal with the Right is simple, IMO. The Left must embrace French identity, get tough on immigration. No one likes to feel their culture under threat.

Once again, you don't know enough Marine Le Pen, to think it's easy to counter her on those topics, and Sarkozy having made a huge 'French kiss' (amusing to use it here) to her ideas during the 2 last years while looking far less credible than her doing blatant pitiful electoralism (you should watch a video compilation of someone called Claude Guéant, amongst other ones), the Left can do nothing against the groth of those ideas here.

Eh, who says it must be only electoralism without convictions? If you look at French history it is not barren for people on the Left at all... why should French identity be surrendered to the fascists? It reminds me of how American liberals fail to dispute conservative interpretations of the US Constitution.

I agree I do not know about Marine Le Pen as you, I just look at the comments on websites in English, such as the Guardian. I note that most people on the Guardian have positive things to say about her... on a left-wing British website? Why do most people have positive things to say about her? Because, they say, a country has the right to defend its identity, culture. I only know what I read. But perhaps that helps explain the success of FN.

Oh, the Guardian? Did they hear her comments after the killings in Toulouse and Montauban, just to take the most blatant example of what she can say. She totally irresponsibly exploits racist and xenophobic sentiments by throwing all the contempt she can, and overall against a community which really doesn't need it, especially nowadays, the 'Muslim community' (in case we can make a whole community of it, but that's what most French people do anyways), a 'community' which might be about 10% of the population, and which, in this country, is touched by most problems that can occur in this society.

That's what can be easily called a 'catch-all-populism', so that's mainly someone throwing things that people wanna hear with a quite far-rightist taint, to say the least, and in the meantime trying to display some sane things to look credible, because, unlike her father, she apparently actually wants the power.

And I'm not discussing, nor judging, the fact to put forth the 'national identity', it's not my business here, people defend the political ideas they want, and if PS want to defend it that's their business, the point just being that they go toward in a rather not genuine way, far more in an electoralist way, which is more a problem, playing with fire can burn, if you don't really control fire.

Ah, well, about The Guardian, English try hard but could never get French apparently... ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 06:36:26 PM
Oh gosh Morano exciting herself on TV, for this only it can be the joy tonight, come to think about it! we gonna get rid of her!!


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2012, 06:45:14 PM
()


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 06:45:30 PM
Jerusalem? Berlin? Nicosia? No, Paris. ;D (http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/article/2012/05/07/carte-paris-vote-pour-francois-hollande_1696832_1471069.html)

()


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Smid on May 06, 2012, 07:30:36 PM

If it wasn't for a one electoral region there, in the South-East, the Sarkozy majority parts could form a contiguous area.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Torie on May 06, 2012, 07:34:40 PM
The geographically highly polarized Paris - and boy was it highly polarized - 78% Sarko on the far west end to 72% Hollande on the opposite side.

()



Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: batmacumba on May 06, 2012, 07:39:31 PM

If it wasn't for a one electoral region there, in the South-East, the Sarkozy majority parts could form a contiguous area.

You can bet the northwestern half voted for him (while the southeastern one would've gone heavily for Hollande). So, just look as if It was two, and you'll get your contiguity.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on May 06, 2012, 07:58:29 PM
Nice photo album from Le Monde (http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/portfolio/2012/05/06/presidentielle-2012-de-solferino-a-la-bastille-la-joie-du-peuple-de-gauche_1696711_1471069.html)

(look at that guy close to Hollande on some pics on stage, someone wanna create a new political crisis in Belgium?)



Home pages of websites:

()

Let's have dignity, let's be patriot, let's be French.

I love you.


There's never been so much craziness about 'patriotism' in France...

And well, Sarkozy's classical 'emotionalism'...



()

You don't need translation I think.



always works...:) (http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xqn598_hollande-voit-la-vie-en-rose_news?search_algo=1)

Too bad they don't pass the whole sequence when La Vie en Rose is played on stage after the 1st Hollande speech in Tulle. Was lovely. You can also see the hills of Tulle in the background at one point and he made his speech on the Place de la Cathédrale (I rarely went to Tulle, I was more a Briviste ;D, the 'bad rightist bourgeois of Corrèze', while Tulle are the 'cool leftist guys of Corrèze', but I've been quite impressed by this cathedral when I was a kid), ah well whatever, good night France...:)




Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: batmacumba on May 06, 2012, 08:14:28 PM
Nice photo album from Le Monde (http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/portfolio/2012/05/06/presidentielle-2012-de-solferino-a-la-bastille-la-joie-du-peuple-de-gauche_1696711_1471069.html)

(look at that guy close to Hollande on some pics on stage, someone wanna create a new political crisis in Belgium?)



Home pages of websites:

()

Let's have dignity, let's be patriot, let's be French.

I love you.


There's never been so much craziness about 'patriotism' in France...

And well, Sarkozy's classical 'emotionalism'...



()

You don't need translation I think.



always works...:) (http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xqn598_hollande-voit-la-vie-en-rose_news?search_algo=1)

Too bad they don't pass the whole sequence when La Vie en Rose is played on stage after the 1st Hollande speech in Tulle. Was lovely. You can also see the hills of Tulle in the background at one point and he made his speech on the Place de la Cathédrale (I rarely went to Tulle, I was more a Briviste ;D, the 'bad rightist bourgeois of Corrèze', while Tulle are the 'cool leftist guys of Corrèze', but I've been quite impressed by this cathedral when I was a kid), ah well whatever, good night France...:)




Loved the 3rd pic. I thought He would just pick up the guitar and rock people out.
The Belgian PM, on the other hand, should be impeached for outrageous bad taste.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on May 06, 2012, 08:28:05 PM
Hmm Sarkozy did a lot better than I expected. Not that coming close matters.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on May 06, 2012, 09:27:35 PM
Nice photo album from Le Monde (http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/portfolio/2012/05/06/presidentielle-2012-de-solferino-a-la-bastille-la-joie-du-peuple-de-gauche_1696711_1471069.html)

left-wing French girls <3

And LOL at the people waving those huge Irish flags right infront of the stage.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: rbt48 on May 06, 2012, 09:44:19 PM
Sorry to ask, but I'm too lazy to look through all 57 pages.  What is a link for the vote count?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on May 06, 2012, 09:47:20 PM
Sorry to ask, but I'm too lazy to look through all 57 pages.  What is a link for the vote count?

http://www.google.com/elections/ed/fr/results


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on May 07, 2012, 01:48:32 AM
who won Lyon and Marseille?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 07, 2012, 02:14:18 AM
Lyon: Hollande 53-47
Marseille: Hollande 50.9-49.1


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 07, 2012, 03:50:46 AM
Final results (incl. the French abroad):

18.000.438 votes - 51.62% - François HOLLANDE
16.869.371 votes - 48.38% - Nicolas SARKOZY

46.073.165 eligible voters
  9.056.183 non-voters
37.016.982 voters

Turnout: 80.34%

  2.147.173 invalid votes
34.869.809 valid votes

http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/PR2012/FE.html


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 07, 2012, 03:53:00 AM
The French Austrians voted:

HOLLANDE François    1518 (58,63%)
SARKOZY Nicolas    1071 (41,37%)

http://www.ambafrance-at.org/Resultats-du-second-tour-de-l


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 07, 2012, 03:58:33 AM
75.68% of voters cast a valid ballot. This is barely more than in 1995 and 2002, and more than 10 points less than in 1974 (86.17%, all-time record). Hollande won 39.06% of registered voters, less than any winner except Pompidou in 1969, and also less than two losers (Mitterrand'74 and Giscard'81).


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 07, 2012, 04:00:08 AM
75.68% of voters cast a valid ballot. This is barely more than in 1995 and 2002, and more than 10 points less than in 1974 (86.17%, all-time record). Hollande won 39.06% of registered voters, less than any winner except Pompidou in 1969, and also less than two losers (Mitterrand'74 and Giscard'81).

FN voters most likely casting the invalid ballots.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 07, 2012, 04:01:24 AM
Here are the totals of the French abroad by country:

http://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/fr/IMG/pdf/Tableau_de_recensement_-_2nd_Tour_cle8dd39a.pdf

The US voted with 61% for Sarkozy ... :P


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 07, 2012, 04:02:42 AM
75.68% of voters cast a valid ballot. This is barely more than in 1995 and 2002, and more than 10 points less than in 1974 (86.17%, all-time record). Hollande won 39.06% of registered voters, less than any winner except Pompidou in 1969, and also less than two losers (Mitterrand'74 and Giscard'81).

FN voters most likely casting the invalid ballots.

Speaking of invalid ballots, they are 4.66%, the second-biggest number, only lower than 1995 (4.76%).


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 07, 2012, 04:03:41 AM
Israel: 93% Sarkozy.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: ZuWo on May 07, 2012, 04:07:47 AM
Swiss result:

Sarkozy - 32'995 (62.29%)
Hollande - 19'978 (37.71%)

Most votes were cast in the French-speaking part of Switzerland.

http://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/fr/IMG/pdf/Tableau_de_recensement_-_2nd_Tour_cle8dd39a.pdf



Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on May 07, 2012, 05:52:17 AM
While everybody wastes time with boring French abroad results, here's a very important map: Jospin 1995 vs Hollande 2012

()

What did I say? Le Havre-Meaux-St. Etienne-Perpignan. That's the new axis.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: batmacumba on May 07, 2012, 05:57:07 AM
While everybody wastes time with boring French abroad results, here's a very important map: Jospin 1995 vs Hollande 2012

()

What did I say? Le Havre-Meaux-St. Etienne-Perpignan. That's the new axis.

Massif gains.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 07, 2012, 06:07:24 AM
Pretty remarkable given how important the Catholic/Anti-Clerical divide was a primary electoral cleavage, isn't it?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on May 07, 2012, 06:23:10 AM
Pretty remarkable given how important the Catholic/Anti-Clerical divide was a primary electoral cleavage, isn't it?

Where exactly did this divide lie and when? I'm not terribly familiar with French demographics, beyond urban/rural and racial minorities.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: batmacumba on May 07, 2012, 06:26:50 AM
Pretty remarkable given how important the Catholic/Anti-Clerical divide was a primary electoral cleavage, isn't it?

Yep. Now the left should advocate returning to medieval borders. Also, the PS could rename themselves Partiac Socialistac. OK, I know this was a bad joke.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 07, 2012, 08:12:42 AM
While everybody wastes time with boring French abroad results, here's a very important map: Jospin 1995 vs Hollande 2012

()

What did I say? Le Havre-Meaux-St. Etienne-Perpignan. That's the new axis.

Fascinating indeed. But very similar to Panzergirl's map, of course.
What I find very interesting is that the socialist candidate is down not only in Lot-Et-Garonne and Tarn-et-Garonne, but also in the 3rd ring of Toulouse suburbs. Sure, Jospin was more or less the favourite son there, but still.

As for Loir-et-Cher and, what is more, Indre-et-Loire, I'm a bit surprised.
Conversely, Manche, especially, but also Maine-et-Loire and Mayenne are awful for Sarkozy. Idem for Pyrenees-Atlantiques... and Cantal and Haute-Loire (but for the last 2, we've got a stupid favourite son effect.

As for "axis", guys, there are none, basically.
Seine-et-Marne is more and more Paris suburbs and so is tilting towards the left, but all the great Parisian Basin is turning or remaining rightist.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: batmacumba on May 07, 2012, 08:18:29 AM
Yet the massif phenomenon is something, isn't It?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 07, 2012, 08:24:18 AM
While everybody wastes time with boring French abroad results, ...

Quite true ;)
Still, there are 2 results that have come as a shock for me: Holande has won Japan and, what is more, the UK !!!

And Sarkozy strong again in Brazil is still a mystery for me.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 07, 2012, 08:34:06 AM
Calgary is the only city in Canada to go for Sarkozy. No surprise.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Sbane on May 07, 2012, 08:49:11 AM
San Francisco and Berkeley go for Hollande. The Santa Clara valley and Southern California go for Sarkozy. Expected.

In India Sarkozy carries Bangalore and loses by a small margin in the other big cities. Loses big in Pondicherry. Again, expected.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: batmacumba on May 07, 2012, 09:05:17 AM
While everybody wastes time with boring French abroad results, ...

Quite true ;)
Still, there are 2 results that have come as a shock for me: Holande has won Japan and, what is more, the UK !!!

And Sarkozy strong again in Brazil is still a mystery for me.

Don't ask me. But I would relate with our media.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Јas on May 07, 2012, 09:11:45 AM
Nice photo album from Le Monde (http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/portfolio/2012/05/06/presidentielle-2012-de-solferino-a-la-bastille-la-joie-du-peuple-de-gauche_1696711_1471069.html)

left-wing French girls <3

And LOL at the people waving those huge Irish flags right infront of the stage.

They're not Irish flags, but rather those of Côte d'Ivoire - Francophone Africa will have given some attention to the results.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Oakvale on May 07, 2012, 01:08:12 PM
Nice photo album from Le Monde (http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/portfolio/2012/05/06/presidentielle-2012-de-solferino-a-la-bastille-la-joie-du-peuple-de-gauche_1696711_1471069.html)

left-wing French girls <3

And LOL at the people waving those huge Irish flags right infront of the stage.

They're not Irish flags, but rather those of Côte d'Ivoire - Francophone Africa will have given some attention to the results.

Ha! Daily Mail columnist and generally terrible person Richard Waghorne (who harkened back to the proud roots of the Mail by endorsing LePen) was whining on Twitter about the "Irish" flags been flown.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 07, 2012, 01:27:29 PM
For completion's sake (even though it hurts...) :

()

Epic fail is epic.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 07, 2012, 01:31:16 PM
Nice photo album from Le Monde (http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/portfolio/2012/05/06/presidentielle-2012-de-solferino-a-la-bastille-la-joie-du-peuple-de-gauche_1696711_1471069.html)

left-wing French girls <3

And LOL at the people waving those huge Irish flags right infront of the stage.

They're not Irish flags, but rather those of Côte d'Ivoire - Francophone Africa will have given some attention to the results.

Ha! Daily Mail columnist and generally terrible person Richard Waghorne (who harkened back to the proud roots of the Mail by endorsing LePen) was whining on Twitter about the "Irish" flags been flown.

Even Italian would've been a better guess.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 07, 2012, 01:40:30 PM
Nice photo album from Le Monde (http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/portfolio/2012/05/06/presidentielle-2012-de-solferino-a-la-bastille-la-joie-du-peuple-de-gauche_1696711_1471069.html)

left-wing French girls <3

And LOL at the people waving those huge Irish flags right infront of the stage.

They're not Irish flags, but rather those of Côte d'Ivoire - Francophone Africa will have given some attention to the results.

Ha! Daily Mail columnist and generally terrible person Richard Waghorne (who harkened back to the proud roots of the Mail by endorsing LePen) was whining on Twitter about the "Irish" flags been flown.

Even Italian would've been a better guess.

That's clearly orange, my friend. And from the photo I saw, it looked like there separate green and orange flags were flying (or it was a dark color in the middle and blended in with the shadows).


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 07, 2012, 01:43:27 PM
Comparison of the 2nd round victories of French Presidents:

1965: De Gaulle - 55.2%
1969: Pompidou - 57.5%
1974: Giscard - 50.81%
1981: Mitterrand - 51.76%
1988: Mitterrand - 54.02%
1995: Chirac - 52.64%
2002: Chirac - 82.21%
2007: Sarkozy - 53.06%
2012: Hollande - 51.63%

Best result: Chirac 2002
Best result under "normal" circumstances: Pompidou 1969
Worst result: Giscard 1974

And 1st round results:

1965: De Gaulle - 44.64%
1969: Pompidou - 43.9%
1974: Giscard - 32.60% (came in second)
1981: Mitterrand - 25.86% (came in second)
1988: Mitterrand - 34.11%
1995: Chirac - 20.84% (came in second)
2002: Chirac - 19.88%
2007: Sarkozy - 31.18%
2012: Hollande - 28.63%

Best 1st round result: De Gaulle 1965
Worst 1st round result: Chirac 2002


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 07, 2012, 01:49:00 PM
Comparison of the 2nd round victories of French Presidents:

1965: De Gaulle - 55.2%
1969: Pompidou - 57.5%
1974: Giscard - 50.81%
1981: Mitterrand - 51.76%
1988: Mitterrand - 54.02%
1995: Chirac - 52.64%
2002: Chirac - 82.21%
2007: Sarkozy - 53.06%
2012: Hollande - 51.63%

Best result: Chirac 2002
Best result under "normal" circumstances: Pompidou 1969
Worst result: Giscard 1974

1969 arguably wasn't "normal". Turnout was dreadful and the runoff opposed two right wingers (the latter explains the former, of course).


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on May 07, 2012, 01:55:07 PM
Ah, I'm dumb, people waving Ivory Coast flags makes much more sense.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: King on May 07, 2012, 02:04:54 PM
I believe the anti christ will be a socialist, so for him to control europe, he will need socialist governments in place. I believe that we are seeing bible prophecy fulfilled. These people don't want balanced budgets, they don't want austerity, and many don't want to work, they want a nanny government to take care of them, and this is why the anti christ will be so well received. I can see his campaign slogan now, TRUST ME, I WILL TAKE CARE OF YOU, it will require a little mark though, in your hand or forehead. I believe he will confiscate the wealth of the developed countries, and the wealth left behind by raptured saints. THis will cause commerce to prosper, as the Bible says. Just imagine the stimulus effect this would have. I believe we might already know this man, although I don't have a clue who he is.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: lilTommy on May 07, 2012, 02:20:34 PM
I believe the anti christ will be a socialist, so for him to control europe, he will need socialist governments in place. I believe that we are seeing bible prophecy fulfilled. These people don't want balanced budgets, they don't want austerity, and many don't want to work, they want a nanny government to take care of them, and this is why the anti christ will be so well received. I can see his campaign slogan now, TRUST ME, I WILL TAKE CARE OF YOU, it will require a little mark though, in your hand or forehead. I believe he will confiscate the wealth of the developed countries, and the wealth left behind by raptured saints. THis will cause commerce to prosper, as the Bible says. Just imagine the stimulus effect this would have. I believe we might already know this man, although I don't have a clue who he is.

... Are you kidding me... i was going to report this, as it is extremely offensive to me as a Socialist/Social democrat but i've decided to let it be as the rediculousness of your comments will cause most of us to just laugh or shake our heads. I am hoping that this was intended to be ironic or sarcastic, but yikes.
... didn't we have an anti-christ already? Oh ya wasn't he a Nazi... an extreme right-wing facist capitalist? :P
If you can't have an adult conversation without bursting into Falwell then please go, i'm sure their is a religious zealot message board somewhere (do ppl still say message board? lol)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 07, 2012, 02:22:14 PM
One of the nicest moments of the election night.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-z1L7xxmQsU


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Franzl on May 07, 2012, 02:24:05 PM
I believe the anti christ will be a socialist, so for him to control europe, he will need socialist governments in place. I believe that we are seeing bible prophecy fulfilled. These people don't want balanced budgets, they don't want austerity, and many don't want to work, they want a nanny government to take care of them, and this is why the anti christ will be so well received. I can see his campaign slogan now, TRUST ME, I WILL TAKE CARE OF YOU, it will require a little mark though, in your hand or forehead. I believe he will confiscate the wealth of the developed countries, and the wealth left behind by raptured saints. THis will cause commerce to prosper, as the Bible says. Just imagine the stimulus effect this would have. I believe we might already know this man, although I don't have a clue who he is.

... Are you kidding me... i was going to report this, as it is extremely offensive to me as a Socialist/Social democrat but i've decided to let it be as the rediculousness of your comments will cause most of us to just laugh or shake our heads. I am hoping that this was intended to be ironic or sarcastic, but yikes.
... didn't we have an anti-christ already? Oh ya wasn't he a Nazi... an extreme right-wing facist capitalist? :P
If you can't have an adult conversation without bursting into Falwell then please go, i'm sure their is a religious zealot message board somewhere (do ppl still say message board? lol)

You clearly don't know King.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Insula Dei on May 07, 2012, 02:26:52 PM
I believe the anti christ will be a socialist, so for him to control europe, he will need socialist governments in place. I believe that we are seeing bible prophecy fulfilled. These people don't want balanced budgets, they don't want austerity, and many don't want to work, they want a nanny government to take care of them, and this is why the anti christ will be so well received. I can see his campaign slogan now, TRUST ME, I WILL TAKE CARE OF YOU, it will require a little mark though, in your hand or forehead. I believe he will confiscate the wealth of the developed countries, and the wealth left behind by raptured saints. THis will cause commerce to prosper, as the Bible says. Just imagine the stimulus effect this would have. I believe we might already know this man, although I don't have a clue who he is.

Okay is this a literal quote from NHMagic? Otherwise you've really got the way of writing/thinking down.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: lilTommy on May 07, 2012, 02:27:14 PM
One of the nicest moments of the election night.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-z1L7xxmQsU

ok... i've just realised this now... both Thomas Hollande and Jean Sarkozy (the sons) are both very Hot, very attractive men... gah :)

and i guess i am just learning about him, sounds like a fun guy :P


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 07, 2012, 02:42:00 PM
I believe the anti christ will be a socialist, so for him to control europe, he will need socialist governments in place. I believe that we are seeing bible prophecy fulfilled. These people don't want balanced budgets, they don't want austerity, and many don't want to work, they want a nanny government to take care of them, and this is why the anti christ will be so well received. I can see his campaign slogan now, TRUST ME, I WILL TAKE CARE OF YOU, it will require a little mark though, in your hand or forehead. I believe he will confiscate the wealth of the developed countries, and the wealth left behind by raptured saints. THis will cause commerce to prosper, as the Bible says. Just imagine the stimulus effect this would have. I believe we might already know this man, although I don't have a clue who he is.

... Are you kidding me... i was going to report this, as it is extremely offensive to me as a Socialist/Social democrat but i've decided to let it be as the rediculousness of your comments will cause most of us to just laugh or shake our heads. I am hoping that this was intended to be ironic or sarcastic, but yikes.
... didn't we have an anti-christ already? Oh ya wasn't he a Nazi... an extreme right-wing facist capitalist? :P
If you can't have an adult conversation without bursting into Falwell then please go, i'm sure their is a religious zealot message board somewhere (do ppl still say message board? lol)

It was obviously sarcastic. King is a good poster.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 07, 2012, 03:00:10 PM
One of the nicest moments of the election night.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-z1L7xxmQsU

ok... i've just realised this now... both Thomas Hollande and Jean Sarkozy (the sons) are both very Hot, very attractive men... gah :)

and i guess i am just learning about him, sounds like a fun guy :P

His mother's looks really.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 07, 2012, 03:17:20 PM
One of the nicest moments of the election night.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-z1L7xxmQsU

ok... i've just realised this now... both Thomas Hollande and Jean Sarkozy (the sons) are both very Hot, very attractive men... gah :)

and i guess i am just learning about him, sounds like a fun guy :P

Jean Sarkozy looks like an arrogant stupid young rich asshole (which is what he probably is). Thomas Hollande looks like a naive lefty student. Two living stereotypes.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 07, 2012, 03:23:49 PM
One of the nicest moments of the election night.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-z1L7xxmQsU

ok... i've just realised this now... both Thomas Hollande and Jean Sarkozy (the sons) are both very Hot, very attractive men... gah :)

and i guess i am just learning about him, sounds like a fun guy :P

Jean Sarkozy looks like an arrogant stupid young rich asshole (which is what he probably is). Thomas Hollande looks like a naive lefty student. Two living stereotypes.

Definitely their father's sons then.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 07, 2012, 03:33:53 PM
Comparison of the 2nd round victories of French Presidents:

1965: De Gaulle - 55.2%
1969: Pompidou - 57.5%
1974: Giscard - 50.81%
1981: Mitterrand - 51.76%
1988: Mitterrand - 54.02%
1995: Chirac - 52.64%
2002: Chirac - 82.21%
2007: Sarkozy - 53.06%
2012: Hollande - 51.63%

Best result: Chirac 2002
Best result under "normal" circumstances: Pompidou 1969
Worst result: Giscard 1974

1969 arguably wasn't "normal". Turnout was dreadful and the runoff opposed two right wingers (the latter explains the former, of course).

Yes, but Poher was a mainstream anti-gaullist right candidate. Le Pen was not "mainstream" by any standards.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 07, 2012, 03:37:19 PM
Comparison of the 2nd round victories of French Presidents:

1965: De Gaulle - 55.2%
1969: Pompidou - 57.5%
1974: Giscard - 50.81%
1981: Mitterrand - 51.76%
1988: Mitterrand - 54.02%
1995: Chirac - 52.64%
2002: Chirac - 82.21%
2007: Sarkozy - 53.06%
2012: Hollande - 51.63%

Best result: Chirac 2002
Best result under "normal" circumstances: Pompidou 1969
Worst result: Giscard 1974

1969 arguably wasn't "normal". Turnout was dreadful and the runoff opposed two right wingers (the latter explains the former, of course).

Yes, but Poher was a mainstream anti-gaullist right candidate. Le Pen was not "mainstream" by any standards.

Of course. Still I think it's fairer to include only classical left-right confrontations in the "normal" category. Not that it makes the picture any brighter for Hollande. Even more so if you look at the % of registered voters instead of valid votes.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: batmacumba on May 07, 2012, 03:50:56 PM
I believe the anti christ will be a socialist, so for him to control europe, he will need socialist governments in place. I believe that we are seeing bible prophecy fulfilled. These people don't want balanced budgets, they don't want austerity, and many don't want to work, they want a nanny government to take care of them, and this is why the anti christ will be so well received. I can see his campaign slogan now, TRUST ME, I WILL TAKE CARE OF YOU, it will require a little mark though, in your hand or forehead. I believe he will confiscate the wealth of the developed countries, and the wealth left behind by raptured saints. THis will cause commerce to prosper, as the Bible says. Just imagine the stimulus effect this would have. I believe we might already know this man, although I don't have a clue who he is.

... Are you kidding me... i was going to report this, as it is extremely offensive to me as a Socialist/Social democrat but i've decided to let it be as the rediculousness of your comments will cause most of us to just laugh or shake our heads. I am hoping that this was intended to be ironic or sarcastic, but yikes.
... didn't we have an anti-christ already? Oh ya wasn't he a Nazi... an extreme right-wing facist capitalist? :P
If you can't have an adult conversation without bursting into Falwell then please go, i'm sure their is a religious zealot message board somewhere (do ppl still say message board? lol)

You clearly don't know King.

One doesn't need to know him to see the post's wit. The three last sentences should make anyone understand...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on May 07, 2012, 04:35:42 PM
One of the nicest moments of the election night.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-z1L7xxmQsU

Yeah, it was a nice moment. But only because it proved that journalists, especially those on France 2, are useless idiots who are entirely and beyond useless. Last night was about as ridiculous as Wolf Blitzer getting high off the Minnesota caucus sites.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 07, 2012, 04:36:31 PM
For completion's sake (even though it hurts...) :

()

Epic fail is epic.

The polls were really accurate ! My tracker was a good idea :D :P


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 07, 2012, 04:55:21 PM
What I really wonder is : would Sarkozy have won with one week more ? Or would the voters have settled with this standing ? Just thinking to it makes me shudder.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 07, 2012, 04:58:41 PM
It's better to not wonder about those questions, Antonio.
Stop thinking about it.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on May 07, 2012, 05:09:46 PM
What I really wonder is : would Sarkozy have won with one week more ? Or would the voters have settled with this standing ? Just thinking to it makes me shudder.

You guys are exagurating it. It always gets closer the closer you get to election day. Had the election been a week from now the campaign would have began a week later and we'd still have the same result.

EDIT: Although it is an intresting trend, if it continues Hollande will be down to single digits by the next election. :P


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on May 07, 2012, 05:17:32 PM
Antonio, you have your first Socialist President in a long time. Be happy with the victory and stop depressing me. :P


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 07, 2012, 05:24:35 PM
Harold Wilson's first parliamentary majority was four seats.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 07, 2012, 05:37:31 PM
One more week and...

Sarkozy would have been re-elected.





;)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: King on May 07, 2012, 10:32:51 PM
One more week and...

Sarkozy would have been re-elected.





;)

Please, he lost to a bald socialist by 18 points yesterday.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Colbert on May 08, 2012, 03:57:18 AM
some maps


evolution fn 1st round 1988-2012

()


evolution left 2d round, 1974-2012 (quartiles)


()

evolution left 2d round 1974-2012 (absolute)

()


eva joly, 1st round (quartiles*)

()

françois bayrou 1st round (quartiles*)

()

jean-luc mélenchon 1st round (quartiles*)

()

marine le pen 1st round (quartiles*)

()

nicolas sarkozy 1st round (quartiles*)

()

françois hollande 1st round (quartiles*)

()



*quartiles, but pondered by national score (upon : trying to have 2 levels of same numbers of communes ; under : trying to have 2 levels of same numbers of communes)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: rob in cal on May 08, 2012, 03:48:58 PM
Do we have any info on the geographic distribution of blank votes?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 08, 2012, 07:01:43 PM
I'm all in favor of temporary banning Antonio until after legislative election. Otherwise, he'd kill us with his pessimism.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Simfan34 on May 08, 2012, 07:10:27 PM
One more week and...

Sarkozy would have been re-elected.





;)

One more week and...

Jon Huntsman would have tied with Mitt Romney in the NH primary.

One more week... but it wasn't. This is just silly.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 08, 2012, 07:11:40 PM
One more week and...

Sarkozy would have been re-elected.





;)

One more week and...

Jon Huntsman would have tied with Mitt Romney in the NH primary.

Now that one is sad.

(OBAMA/HUNTSMAN 2012!)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 09, 2012, 04:31:58 PM
Well, I noticed something I missed on election night.

Hollande won Basse-Normandie (!), won Calvados quite easily, was very close in Manche and managed to win a circonscription in Orne (!).


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 10, 2012, 01:48:15 AM
Manche is especially a very bad result for the right and I don't know really why.
Bad, OK, but that bad...

I don't think the only fact Cazeneuve was one of the four spokesmen is a reason :P
And on nuclear matters, well, on Flamanville and La Hague, Hollande is almost on line with Sarkozy.
Maybe rural upset translating, here more than anywhere else, by a "revolutionary" vote against the right ?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 12, 2012, 05:40:57 PM
Now this is something i'd love to see on Trafalgar Square. Alas, the British are less fun.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hGkZcD6oeI


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on May 15, 2012, 07:39:54 PM
My post on the runoff, for the few who care about my long blabber: http://welections.wordpress.com/2012/05/16/france-2012-runof/

A cantonal map is in the works.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Leftbehind on May 15, 2012, 08:09:45 PM
Now this is something i'd love to see on Trafalgar Square. Alas, the British are less fun.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hGkZcD6oeI

I'd say it's because politics means less in the UK and our politicians are as much to blame for that as anyone.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Colbert on May 16, 2012, 06:27:54 AM
Some map wich divided france between 2 zones : 50% of best results of each candidate (or each family)

PS vs UMP
()

PS vs FN
()

PS vs FDG
()

PS vs MD
()

UMP vs FN
()

UMP vs FDG
()

UMP vs MD
()

FN vs FDG
()

FN vs MD
()

FDG vs MD
()

PS' France
()

UMP's France
()

FN's France
()

FDG's FRANCE
()

MODEM's FRANCE
()

LEFTS's FRANCE (LO+NPA+FDG+EELV+PS)
()

RIGHTS's FRANCE (UMP+FN+DLR)
()

FAR-LEFT's FRANCE (NPA+LO+EELV+FDG)
()

CENTRE-LEFT's FRANCE (PS+MD)
()

CENTRE-RIGHT's FRANCE (UMP+MD)
()

CENTRIST's FRANCE (UMP+MD+PS)
()

ETATIST's FRANCE (FDG+FN+DLR+LO+NPA)
()


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: TheParliamentarian on May 16, 2012, 11:31:22 AM
latest poll numbers?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread (FINAL CANTONAL MAP!)
Post by: Hash on May 18, 2012, 07:00:09 PM
Here's the cantonal map, now by actual electoral cantons with urban insets!

()


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 18, 2012, 07:19:51 PM
Wonderful stuff.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on May 18, 2012, 07:26:25 PM
Beautiful, indeed.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: LastVoter on May 18, 2012, 07:30:40 PM
()
Looks like the Geneva suburbs(I lived there for a summer and a few months in spring and summer when I was 7) voted for the right wing party :(
Still a pretty nice place.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 19, 2012, 04:31:37 AM
Awesome map ! :)

It's impressive how nearly all major cities have voted for Hollande... Is the PS turning into the democratic party ?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on May 19, 2012, 04:35:30 AM
Awesome map ! :)

It's impressive how nearly all major cities have voted for Hollande... Is the PS turning into the democratic party ?
It's certainly not there yet... you wouldn't get the bourgeois enclaves in the center of Nantes or Bordeaux otherwise. (And those in the Paris metro would be partially elsewhere.)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 19, 2012, 05:41:37 AM
What's interesting is how major electoral cleavages of the past (or which are major in other European countries) aren't exactly gone, but have been relegated to a secondary status in which they only properly appear locally. But what exactly is it that they've been submerged beneath?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Colbert on May 19, 2012, 01:42:39 PM
some people give us ONE map, and hello to lot of "thanks"

I give 274455 maps, and... nothing.


je vous emmârde et je rentre à mâ mâzon


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on May 19, 2012, 02:23:35 PM
Thank you, Colbert.

I must say that your maps were a little hard to interpret, but they were very informative once I did so, so thank you very much.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 19, 2012, 03:00:49 PM
Thanks Hash for this beautifully depressing map ;)
And your urban inlets are wonderfully excruciating for me :D
(and thanks a lot for Paris and its arrondissements ;))

Isn't the north of France larger than it should be and the south narrower ? Just an eye-feeling...


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 19, 2012, 03:02:17 PM
What again makes the Elsass so conservative ?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on May 19, 2012, 03:02:38 PM
Isn't the north of France larger than it should be
What are you, a Flemish irredentist?


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 06, 2012, 04:05:19 PM
No, this map has a curious shape. A question of projection ?



Anyway, just to give a link to the lil' essay of Fourquet, from IFOP, on the French presidential election:
http://www.jean-jaures.org/Publications/Les-essais/Le-sens-des-cartes


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Insula Dei on June 06, 2012, 04:13:27 PM
Isn't the north of France larger than it should be
What are you, a Flemish irredentist?

We'll happily take back all the bits this side of Kales, but it must be clear that it would be unacceptable for the arrogant francophones who have chosen to live there to get linguistical facilities.


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Hash on June 06, 2012, 04:24:04 PM
No, this map has a curious shape. A question of projection ?



Anyway, just to give a link to the lil' essay of Fourquet, from IFOP, on the French presidential election:
http://www.jean-jaures.org/Publications/Les-essais/Le-sens-des-cartes


I read that a few days ago. It's pretty interesting, but in the end he's basically restating the things I wrote in my own analysis after the runoff ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 06, 2012, 04:43:57 PM
No, this map has a curious shape. A question of projection ?



Anyway, just to give a link to the lil' essay of Fourquet, from IFOP, on the French presidential election:
http://www.jean-jaures.org/Publications/Les-essais/Le-sens-des-cartes


I read that a few days ago. It's pretty interesting, but in the end he's basically restating the things I wrote in my own analysis after the runoff ;)

Great minds think alike. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: Official Results Thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 06, 2012, 05:48:00 PM
No, this map has a curious shape. A question of projection ?



Anyway, just to give a link to the lil' essay of Fourquet, from IFOP, on the French presidential election:
http://www.jean-jaures.org/Publications/Les-essais/Le-sens-des-cartes


I read that a few days ago. It's pretty interesting, but in the end he's basically restating the things I wrote in my own analysis after the runoff ;)

Great minds think alike. ;)

NO ! These pollsters just don't give their "sources", which they are sucking without any remorse !