Talk Elections

New York:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/NY_President_0424.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/ny

Pennsylvania:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/PA_President_0424.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/pa

Connecticut:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/CT_President_0424.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/ct

Rhode Island:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/RI_Page_0424.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/ri

Delaware:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/DE_President_0424.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/de

Are you actually going to be staying awake for this, Tender? I certainly won't be...

Calling a five-state Romney sweep.

Santorum will win PA. I'm probably wrong, but if I am right I will accept my accolades.

So when do the polls close?

8 PM in most places, IIRC.

Thanks, I was thinking 5 for some reason.  :P  lol

9PM Eastern in New York.

Mibbit chat ahoy! (Not that I'll be on there...snoozy time in Glasgow)

I just am not interested in these primaries anymore, I don't care if CT or NY is having one. :(

If I associated with Connecticut Republicans, I would drop some details, but alas, I am isolated from that little world here in Hartford.

I don't have any results, but I just worked for 11 hours in my MontCo, PA polling precinct. There's over 1100 total registered voters, only about 150 voted by the time I left. Only about 60 of them were Republicans. Terrible, terrible turnout.

NY and RI close at 9pm, while the others close at 8pm.

These states should really change the law so Senate primaries are held the same day. You're voting in presidential and House primaries, why not Senate?

It looks like (as expected) there's no exit poll.  If there had been an exit poll, I would have expected an AP story on it by now.

Well, I don't know about the rest of the state, but I just went to vote about 20 minutes ago and I was only the 18th person to vote at my polling place all day.  Very low turnout.

Did you vote for mitt?

First of all, thank you for the links, Tender.


I'm going to be watching Murphy/Kane, because I loathe Kane!

RON PAUL SECOND WITH 40% IN RI!!!!!!!!!111111!!!1

RELOVETION!

Nothing from PA yet.

So exciting, isn't it?

ROMNEY AT 66.6% IN CT

Despite Romney's huge leads in RI and CT, neither state has been called by CNN....I guess whoever is in charge of the projections there has similar feelings about these contests as the vast majority of this forum.

Dammit, down to 66.2%.

Gingrich at 37% in DE....lol.

Nothing from New Castle yet, sadly it won't last.

Still nothing in from New Castle, and Gingrich is down to 33%. Anything above 20% should be considered impressive. :P

Sussex County, Delaware is pretty much the South.  Kent County is more of a mix.  I doubt Gingrich will do as well in New Castle County, which is very much the North.

With a little less than half in per the state's website, Gingrich is down to 27.4% in Delaware.  As expected, New Castle County doesn't like Newt as much as the southern counties.

Well, I guess Rhode Island actually had a Democratic primary (unlike the rest of the states, apparently). Obama winning 91% so far. Ron Paul is also showing major strength in the GOP Primary there most likely because it was open.

Btw, is the forum incredibly slow for anyone else tonight?

Somewhat.

Santorum is eating it in Pennsylvania even more than I expected.  He's struggling for third place in Philadelphia.

Very early, but Cartwright leads 3-1 in PA-17. Smith leads 2-1 in PA-Sen (R).

Delaware is pretty much finished already. 56-27 Romney.

Mittens is winning the church counties in PA.

Gingrich: "Over the next few days we will look at where we are."

Very

Altmire jumps out to an early lead over Critz.

Rhode Island has been closed for 5 minutes and it's already mostly in. That's... interesting. Romney at 63%, Paul in second place with 25%.

Add an hour onto that. ;)

Man, how boring.

No real surprise, of the 4 states that results have come in for, they have all been called for Romney.  No results from New York yet.

Altmire up with 71%...

The Green Papers disagrees, but whatever.

We got 12% in with PA-12 and Altmire is up 54-46.

I guess Critz's areas are starting to report.

Cartwright is slaughtering Holden with 10% in.

Was that expected? An incumbent losing 3-1... yeesh. Looks like both parties have intraparty ideological scores to settle this cycle.

Holden got stuck in a district which didn't fit him at all. Harrisburg, Scranton, and Wilkes-Barre aren't too keen on him.

The district is pretty much all new to Holden, except for Schuylkill.

Ron Paul at 97% in Clearfield, PA...I assume it's a glitch.

And a vote dump in Schuylkill narrowed the margin to 62-38 Cartwright.

Romney and Gingrich tied in the Bronx with 1 vote each.

I saw that, made me laugh.  It's the only county not colored for Romney so far on the Google map.

Not surprising.  It's not like Romney has been being killed among "church-goers" in general, considering that's the vast majority of the Republican electorate.  Evangelical Christians have always been his toughest category, and they've never had any deep love for Santorum or Gingrich, especially in the North.

If Romney is becoming defaultive, which he clearly is, it's no shock he's winning demographics where he was hardly getting trounced to begin with.  This race has never been divided in the way that the 2008 Democratic Primary was, and only approaches that level of absolute polarization in parts of the Deep South.

Now Romney is tied 3-3 with RAWN PAWL.

Also, I'd love to see Paul's numbers in Tompkins.

Rick is getting a heck of a lot more votes outside PA than I thought.

No results from Tompkins yet.

I doubt that will be at all important or unusual. Remember, Ron Paul got 15% in Hanover, NH (Dartmouth).

Final Unofficial Delaware:

     NEWT GINGRICH   7550   191   7741   27.1 %
     RONALD E. PAUL   2924   93   3017   10.6 %
     MITT ROMNEY   15599   544   16143   56.5 %
     RICK SANTORUM   1471   219   1690   5.8 %

Machine Votes / Absentee Votes / Total Votes / Percentage

With only 25 of 78 precincts in, Westmorland is breaking 57-43 for Critz.

More of Schuylkill is in and Holden is at 43%...can he hang on?

Hopefully not.

Critz is back up to 50.3%.

75% is in. Whats left?

It's very non-Mormon and it is Pennstucky.  These are fairly close to the southern Evangelicals.  There are probably a little more Catholics.

If Romney is becoming defaultive, which he clearly is, it's no shock he's winning demographics where he was hardly getting trounced to begin with.  This race has never been divided in the way that the 2008 Democratic Primary was, and only approaches that level of absolute polarization in parts of the Deep South.
[/quote]

Dosen't look like it. He's only winning in Schuylkill and Carbon, while Cartwright is winning in the other 4 counties by decent margins. There is more precincts left uncalled where Cartwright is doing well, compared to were Holden is doing well.  

Right, but this is not an area where Romney has ever gotten murdered in the primaries.  These may be socially conservative people, but they're hardly Louisiana Catholics.  Romney never was getting trounced among socially conservative church-goers.  If he was, he would be losing nearly everywhere.  This is the Republican primary, dude.  The average "Penntucky" voter is not dramatically far from the average Republican primary voter, and so Romney winning them once he becomes defaultive is not inordinately impressive.

Critz should have the edge, but depends on what parts of Westmoreland are out.  Anyway, too close to call for now.

I think Holden is done.

AP called it for Cartwright

it would be really nice to see just one county not go to Romney at this point.

61 precincts left, Critz up by almost 1600.

FYI, I'd be willing to bet a good bit of money that Critz got over 85% (heck maybe 90%) in the parts of this CD that belong to CD-12, whereas Altmire only got 70% in the parts he used to represent.  And there you have it.

:D

AP has called the race for Cartwright in CD-17.  He is up 59 to 41%.

I pretty much think Altmire is done too.

How did Romney end up doing better in Sussex than Kent (in Delaware)?

People are shocked that Newt in the head to head vs Romney gets absolutely destroyed? We knew this after Florida.

:(

Who is shocked?

Is Newt 4th in the overall vote count tonight?

Beach towns, perhaps?

Romney won every Delaware RD and every Connecticut town.  In Connecticut, the closest town was Franklin, where Romney won by one vote over Ron Paul with only 38%.   On the other hand, Romney crushed all opponents in tony Darien, with 84.5% of the vote.  Trumball is still out.

Blue Dogs will be around 15 members or less after the the elections in the fall. While the Progressive Caucus could get up to around the high 70's/ low 80's. Probably depends on the results in California and Illinois.

Which will likely make the partisanship in D.C even worse than it is now :P

Obama beats Uncommitted 86%-14% in the all important Rhode Island Democratic primary.

Are we still doing predictions? I completely forgot about predictions so I guess I lose a bunch of points now. lol.

I think my predictions came the closest.  But, I did underestimate Gingrich's support in Delaware, even though it was pathetic. https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152463.msg3271544#msg3271544 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152463.msg3271544#msg3271544)

Remaining drama tonight:  will Romney exceed 100,000 votes in New York.  Too close co tall right now.

Definitely the beach towns.  Here's the Romney percentage by RD, using the 2000 maps.  (I don't know whether the Delaware elections officials reported under the old or new House lines, assuming Delaware has even redistricted).

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Note Romney's relatively good showing in the two Sussex County shore RDs.

Anybody got overall vote tallies?

Final RI:

Romney 9,096 (63.3%)
Paul 3,424 (23.8%)
Gingrich 875 (6.1%)
Santorum 817 (5.7%)

Per the AP, Paul received over 15% in each CD and likely gets 4 of the 12 delegates which are assigned proportionately by district.  Romney should take the other 12 delegates.

Can Romney reach 60% in Pennsylvania?  I think so, but maybe he ends up just shy of it.  Montgomery County is just over half reported and he is taking 67% of the vote there

Romney's doing even better than I thought. What counties and CD's is he the least dominant in?

No, but he'll beat his Delaware percentage.  It looks like DE<PA<NY<RI<CT for Romney, though it could be RI<NY in the end, given what's out and the Nassau understatement.

Can we ban NClib? Please?

I threaten to make a sig with Christine O'Donnell

Probably.  Nassau's numbers are wrong.  It's not 99% in.  Over 16,000 votes were cast there.

Seriously?

Yes, seriously. So you get used to seeing Romney + O'Donnell together. So your aversion of O'Donnell tapers over to Romney.

Seriously, there must be a more productive way to spend one's time!

Yay! Thanks mods. Linky broken. :D

I actually meant on banning nclib, but whatever. Grow up, please. Many of us are here to have serious political discussions. Thank you.

Sorry, I'll change the size (though wanting to ban me is a bit extreme).

I feel 'ya. I had all the states for Romney, but I forgot to update the percentages :P.

I hate Romney AND Obama. There is no more productive way, other than spamming conservative babe shots. :D

Wasn't directing that at you. ;)

Politics. Serious business.

Thank you from the bottom of my heart.

I realize that; I'll change the format of that reply.

In PA, Romney worst county was Juniata, at 46%,  There were three counties grouped together northwest of Harrisburg and on the west bank of the Susquehanna (an area of major interest to me).

His best counties were Montgomery and Bucks, at 67%.  Ironically, while Fulton, IIRC, has a higher percentage Mormon population than any county in PA, Mittens had 50%.

No, I just posted this results thread so I can take a look at it in the morning.

Well all those Pubs put in Schuylkill dumped into Holden's CD to prop him up were wasted then (the county should have been chopped). They could have been used profitably elsewhere, where they were and are rather badly needed. Pity.

And if Altmire goes down, the Pubs should pick up another seat without much sweat is my surmise. I don't see Grumps (and his ilk) voting for Critz in the General, and he would for Altmire (as would I if I lived there). So there you have it.

Is it just me, or is the Obama primary vote in PA really strong for an uncontested race ?

There were contested Democratic primaries for Attorney General, US Senate and some US House and State Rep/Senate seats.  That Democrats came out to vote in them isn't surprising.

Where are you seeing the Obama results?  AP isn't reporting results there.

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=45&OfficeID=1

interesting how throughout the northeast, Paul seems to have done so much better in the rural areas than in the population centers.

There were almost 95,000 more votes cast in the Democratic Attorney General primary than in the uncontested Democratic Presidential primary.

Critz won in 2010. If November is a close Obama win or better, he'll be fine.

Indeed.

Romney    632,768
Santorum  167,517
Paul          144,796
Gingrich    119,269

More than 2/3 of the votes yesterday were from PA.   Paul has done better than Gingrich in all states completely north of the Mason-Dixon line.  Santorum's best state in the East is still Vermont.

Historically, for the presumptive nominee, a very, very weak performance for Mittens.

Winning in a bad year for your party is evidence of strength, but it's far from overwhelming. Three Democrats who won in 1994 were defeated in 1996, after all, and they didn't have to deal with redistricting.

Crtiz baby will be running in a much more GOP CD than last time (5 points more GOP - 55% McCain rather than 50% McCain), most of which is in territory he has never represented, and in which he displayed little appeal in the primary. Crtiz may have won Cambria County in the primary with 85% of the vote, and thus the primary, but he won't be getting 85% of the Cambria vote in the General, and he might need to get close to that to win.

What contested primaries were there on the Republican side?

Has anyone seen the final Presidential Primary results for New York?  I haven't seen anything beyond 93% total.

Google Politics is up to 95%.  Westchester was the most out.  They updated the total on their own website, though.  Romney ended up with 76.74% of Westchester County primary votes with 8,507 votes.  Gingrich was next with 1,011, followed by Paul with 911 and Santorum with 657.  This probably doesn't include absentees.  It certainly doesn't include absentees that trickled in on or after primary day.  Currently, that's Romney's second-best New York county showing.  He hit 78.3% in neighboring Rockland.  It's possible but unlikely that that percentage could be surpassed in Richmond (Staten Island) or New York (Manhattan) Counties.

That's because NYC is also part out, but the NYC Board of Elections' website doesn't give preliminary election results so I can't give an update there.  Elsewhere, there were some Upstate counties with a precinct or two out which shouldn't change the result much.

It looks like CT>NY>RI>PA>DE for Romney.