Talk Elections

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http://fitsnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Polling_News_and_Notes_04_26_12.pdf

I'm eagerly awaiting Dick Morris' wonderful maps.

I think Rove's pretty much spot on here.

Hmm. Which SD poll has Romney down by only 6 ?

AZ is a tossup now.

And the TN and KY polls are ages old.

SC polls are also ages old, we'll have to see if Obama has a chance there or not.

So he sees Obama losing Iowa and Virginia but carrying the Carolinas?

Ok.

It's a reflection of the polls. Call the polls stupid, not him. (Maybe I should be careful what I wish for. :P)

It would be more interesting to see a Karl Rove map that is based on their internal polls, rather than public polls. This map here is just another version of the Atlas database map.

Rove has SC as a toss-up and even Romney trailing by 3 there. Wow!

Romney is only leading by 5 and 8 in TN and KY. McCain even won those in blowout fashion the last time.

Romney is doing well in Iowa.

I'm surprised Romney is traling by 16 in CT. I would have expected him to trail by 10-11 there. In NJ(my home state) Romney is doing what I expected(trailing by 11.)

Missouri still remains a battleground state that it always is.

Romney is doing well in MI in only trailing by 5 there considering his comments on the auto bailout. Ditto for PA minus the auto bailout comments.

NH, SC, NM, and CO are big dissapointment for the R's on this map. Romney should be leading in NH considering that is really his home state nowadays and Obama's approvals in NH are pretty mediocre like in the low 40's I think.

If your David Axlerod you got to love Rove's electoral map!

By the way, is is just my imagination or is RI getting more red(R) and AZ is getting more blue(d) nowadays?

No Romney is up 6 not down by 6 on this map.

Nope, it's not your imagination.

As for the numbers in places like TN, those polls are pretty old if I'm remembering right.

Obama will not win NC and lose VA. Simply won't happen as both states are similar demographically but NC is more conservative. Same case with PA always before OH for a Dem.

Finally a map actually based on polling. And for those of you saying that x state won't go before x, he's not saying it will, but saying the polls indicate it could go either way in an election held today.

Yeah, KY/TN won't be closer than WV, and with Romney being a terrible fit, he won't win WV by 17 (though he will win it, obviously)

How likely is it that Maine has the second highest margin of victory for Obama among the New England states?

Yeah, why would he have Obama up by 3 in SC?  lol

Because that's what the last poll said.

Well the last poll the Atlas has logged shows the Generic Republican up by 6.  We must have missed something then.  :P

I'm guessing he missed something or he doesn't like ipsos. Either way I think this is a great map.

Looks like Romney has a lot of work to do changing that map around in his favor.

Obama leading in Ohio but trailing in Iowa? Biggest thing off about this map.

Romney is actually a great fit for Penn voters.  He appeals to moderate Catholics and the state has a Republican governor and 2 pro-life Republican Senators.  In that sense, he can probably win PA but lose Ohio.  

Romney's a great fit for about half of Pennsylvania.

Bob Casey isn't a Republican.

I would like to believe VA, is lean Democrat

Tennessee CAN'T be lean Romney, so is TX and GA.

Utterly useless map.

Pennsylvania will be more Democratic than Ohio.

Toomey / Corbett were elected in the Tea Bagger (lol) wave of 2010. They aren't exactly popular with the crucial Philly suburbs because of their far-right social views, especially with Corbett's new "close your eyes" law.

Ridiculous. Obama will not win states in 2012 that he lost in 2008. None. Will. Not. Happen.

South Carolina is a toss up. Mmmmmhmmmmm.

According to our database too:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?fips=45

While Rove is an astute political analyst, I cant help but think this map is more for motivating donors than just his pure analysis

This is very simple. Karl Rove looks at polls. He then puts these polls on an EV map. No agenda involved. Will he be giving us his maps frequently? If so that's the map I'll be using.

Karl Rove is an astute political analyst with a clear agenda. At this stage he has no reason to distort polling reports.

I have to disagree with Romney here. I think Rove is spot on with South Carolina, and off in Iowa and Virginia. If Obama is winning in South Carolina, he'll carry Iowa, Virginia, Missouri and Indiana. My map looks sort of like this, except all the lean Romney are tossup, and the tossups Lean Obama.

If Obama is close enough to make South Carolina competitive, he's won the election.  The only reason the poll average makes it even look possible is the inclusion of a couple of university polls.  Take those out and the others average to R+7.

Rove's showing the pink states more likely to go for Obama than I think they really are, and the light blue he's edging the other way, also inaccurately:

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SO it seems like he's overestimating Obama's strength in states having 122 electoral votes and Republican strength in just 12 electoral votes.  Pretty obviously just an attempt to scare the donors/base.

I think he's being optimistic.

I think he is actually making an aggregate poll map and thus why people in this thread are judging his "predictions", I have no clue as I have yet to see such a map.

MA is trending Republican but has been trending Republican for the past decade I think in Presidential Elections.

aww, how cute.

It's been trending Republican but not because of some massive conservative shift in the electorate. There will be a Rep swing and trend there this year but it will be more of a correction. Gore over performed in the Northeast in 2008, Kerry was a favorite son, and McCain's ticket had absolutely no regional appeal to Massachusetts voters. With Romney as the nominee he'll keep Obama under 60% but he'll still win decisively. I'm thinking 57 to 41.