Talk Elections

Well? In the years following the Revolution and before the ratification of the Constitution sometime in Washington's first term, Vermont existed as sort of an independent Republic. However, it eventually became the fourteenth state to ratify the Constitution and join the Union. What if the movement to keep it out of the U.S. succeeded--for various reasons, including say rejection of the constitution or fear of being bullied by NY or somethin' like that--and Vermont stayed a Republic? I'm not an expert on VT politics, but in terms of effect on the US, I can see a divergence from OTL coming fairly early, namely the 1796 election. Adams, after all, won only by three votes, and VT was four. That, of course, could lead to major divergences, over two hundred years later. However, inside Vermont, what are the politics like? What is its relationship with the U.S. and Canada? Does it as a nation have a major effect on anything outside its own geographical region?

Notable changes to 1796

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Former Secretary of State Thomas Jefferson (Republican-Virginia) 67 electoral votes
Vice President John Adams (Federalist-Massachusetts) 68 electoral votes
Former Minister to Great Britain Thomas Pinckney (Federalist-South Carolina) 55 electoral votes
Senator Aaron Burr (Republican-New York) 30 electoral votes
Others: 48 electoral votes

If Vermont stays out, the election of 1796 is likely to play out rather differently.  New York claimed Vermont, and it is quite possible that in 1794 when the Whiskey Rebellion gets suppressed in Western Pennsylvania, New York will seek to gain control of Vermont by force of arms under the pretext that it is suppressing another band of rebels.  Events could easily turn sour real fast, especially if the New England states decide to back Vermont.

Hmmm... I like where this is going. That could result in a huge debate over states' rights and leave a large issue for the two parties to stand on. As well, with NY going against New England, could the nation be in a state of (contained) civil war by 1796?

I'm not sure whether Vermont wouldn't just end up being annexed by the British into Quebec or by New York into NY State.  Either way, I don't think it would survive too long.

I don't see Vermont surviving as an independent Republic in long term.

British holding Vermont would make the US-Canada border hideous.  Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine would work.

And then for fun you could have Newfoundland join the US after World War II.

More French-speakers in US, larger extent of French influence in North America?

Why wouldn't it just be it's own small, rural province?

Another idea I like is Vermont as a north american version of uruguay: a small, homogenous state sandwiched between two giant federations.

Given the landlocking, perhaps a more relevant comparison would be Mongolia.

(Of course, it's only "small" in geographic area compared to its neighbors...)

Or Paraguay without the Guaranis :)

The question is what happens to Maine-area and New Hampshire in this scenario. Would they be tempted to join and would they, especially Maine, be allowed to?