Talk Elections

Japan has to have a general election, constitutionally, on or before 30 August 2013; knowing Japan it's very likely that the election will be at the earliest about a year from now, but it's still worthwhile starting a thread for it, I think, because trends in Japanese politics frequently take kind of a while to get going and then do not change particularly easily except with a change in Prime Ministers.

Currently the ruling party is the Democratic Party of Japan, which was formed from dissidents from the formerly-ruling Liberal Democratic Party (which is actually conservative, or rather almost Right-Hegelian in character) and various centrist or social-liberal reformist parties claiming to be the ideological heirs of the liberalizing Taisho Era between the world wars about fifteen years ago. It was swept into power in the 2009 election after fifty-five years of the Liberal Democratic Party being the largest party in the Diet, which it controlled for all but two of those years (those two were in the early nineties when Japan was ruled by a fractious eight-party alliance called the Eight-Party Alliance after the LDP lost an outright majority in the 1993 election). The Prime Minister, Noda Yoshihiko, has been in power since late last summer, when he replaced Kan Naoto, who in turn replaced Hatoyama Yukio (the guy who actually won the last election) the year before that. There's a pattern of these men steadily losing popularity from initial heights.

The DPJ actually does have several substantive accomplishments to its name, such as introducing subsidies for young families, abolishing state high school tuition fees, restoring support for single mothers (which was remarkable in a socially very normative country like Japan), extending unemployment insurance, introducing free services for low-income disabled people, and banning age discrimination in the provision of medical care. However, the first two DPJ Prime Ministers were actively terrible at messaging, and Noda seems to view not messaging very much at all as a source of some kind of personal pride. He's lost a lot of support because of this but he is still retaining better approvals than either of his predecessors were by the end. Noda was Kan's Minister of Finance and Hatoyama's Senior Vice Minister of Finance. Before that he was an apparently very diligent but not especially interesting back-bencher and directed public relations for the DPJ in its early years, which is interesting considering his current dislike of press conferences and spin (then again, public relations for the DPJ during its early years sucked, so maybe it's not that surprising). He's very highly respected and something of a center-left technocrat; he comes from a distinctly impoverished background, which is even more unusual for Japanese politicians than it is in most countries. One of my professors is a big supporter of his.

The leader of the LDP, which is perceived to have won the last upper house elections two years ago on points even though it didn't actually gain all that many seats, is Tanigaki Sadakazu, who was Minister of Finance for the popular rightist reformer Koizumi Jun'ichirō, the last Japanese Prime Minister to serve more than a year or so, from 2003 to 2006, and Minister of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport under Koizumi's centrist LDP successor Fukuda Yasuo in 2008. Before that he worked in food safety and for a bunch of government commissions. He was considered a moderate at that time but has transformed into a notably right-wing demagogue, even by Japanese standards. At one point Kan offered him a grand coalition for some inexplicable reason, even though the DPJ has never at any point in the past three years not commanded a large majority in the House of Representatives and has not lost its plurality in the House of Councillors. Tanigaki is popular with a certain segment of the population but he's not as able to deflect controversy as Koizumi was. He reminds me more of Abe Shinzō, but I could be off-base on that.

Noda is from Chiba, a formerly rural rice-farming prefecture east of Tokyo that has been undergoing an ambiguous economic restructuring since Japan's largest airport was built there from the sixties to the eighties (it took that long because of civil unrest over its construction). The DPJ is strong in areas like this, east and north of the Tokyo--Kitakyushu built-up core megalopolis, particularly on Hokkaido, in the inland parts of Tohoku, and in the less-urbanized, or not-quite-as-urbanized, parts of the Kanto Plain (although the latter is a traditionally right-leaning area and DPJ inroads into it are rather recent). It's also strong in Nagoya and parts of Osaka.

Tanigaki is from Kyoto, the old capital of Japan and still the site of most of Japan's traditionally important imperial and religious institutions and the driver of most of the country's high culture (not popular or mass culture). The LDP is strong in the traditional, not-quite-as-urban western part of Japan and in the parts of the built-up megalopolis where the DPJ isn't (sometimes even where it is; Tokyo and Osaka, the two largest cities, are actually quite swingy). It was also once able to gain votes in Tohoku, but if it campaigned against the government there this time it would probably be seen as immensely crass, since it would be campaigning against the government's 'earthquake record'. It still might win back parts of Tohoku without putting much into it, but most of north-eastern Japan does genuinely have seemed to have shifted to the left.

Even though the DPJ Prime Ministers all seem to end up pretty unpopular, there's little to no desire to replace Noda, who's much more stable personally and professionally than Hatoyama or Kan, and there's not much enthusiasm among the voters about getting the LDP back either. They've been trading extremely narrow polling leads for a while and the 'No party' (i.e. either abstention or pure swing voters) line in the polls has been inching up into the high forties. Of course, a lot of this will probably change when the campaign actually starts. Both party leaders actually really suck at campaigning, since Noda is a shy technocrat and Tanigaki is a demagogue whom nobody seems to actually like, but the spin machines that get set to motion in Japanese general elections are often pretty spectacular.

___

More to come on minor parties and the Japanese voting system when I have time.

A great overview of the electoral background of Japan!

Thank you very much, Smid. We'll continue with an explanation of Japan's quasi-MMP system and small profiles of such parties as New Komeito, the political arm of the influential Nichiren sect of Japanese Buddhism with an ethos kind of like a Buddhist equivalent of the Christian Democratic parties of Europe; the Japanese Communist Party, one of the saner and more respectable such left in the world; Your Party, a very new libertarian reformist outfit led by LDP breakaways; and the Happiness Realization Party, the political arm of the Happy Science 'new religious movement' (i.e. cult that doesn't appear to be actively dangerous) and lately major international political allies of one Mr Herman Cain!

Nice informative overview


Seriously, how many different PMs have they had since 1980? 20?

MINOR PARTIES

The main minor parties of interest are New Komeito (tl note: Komeito means Justice Party), the Japanese Communist Party, the Kizuna Party, the Social Democratic Party, Your Party, People's New Party/New Party Nippon (technically two parties, but treated essentially like Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid), the New Party Daichi--True Democrats, the Sunrise Party of Japan, the New Renaissance Party,  and the Happiness Realization Party.

New Komeito was founded by members of the Nichiren Buddhist group Soka Gakkai International and is often thought of as its political arm despite the leadership and finances being independent (as is required by the constitutional separation of church and state, which applies to everything except the Imperial House, where the current High Priestess of Ise and head of the Association of Shinto Shrines is the Emperor's kid sister). It's center-right, a traditional coalition partner of the Liberal Democratic Party, and generally perceived as fairly transparent and non-corrupt (or less corrupt), at least historically. They've been the third party for a while now.

The Communists are moderate (for communists) and actually apathetic-to-vaguely-supportive of the Imperial House, whose existence they formerly opposed. They are very left-wing but committed to operating within a Japanese cultural context and were never very strongly associated with the Eastern Bloc. They have some popularity in lower-income suburbs, are committed to running competent women candidates in a strongly male-dominated political culture, and are the fourth-largest party in the Diet, but can be argued to not really stand for as much as they used to.

The Kizuna Party is a small liberal party that was founded earlier this year by DPJ breakaways for reasons that I don't really understand very well yet. They're the closest anybody here would get to being left-liberal or liberal in the modern American sense.

The Social Democratic Party is a successor to the formerly strong (as in, official opposition for about half a century) Socialist Party of Japan and kind of an adjunct to the Democratic Party, from which it is ideologically indistinguishable. Such constituency as it has is mainly bleeding hearts who don't want to vote Communist.

YP, PNP, and NPN are all to varying degrees right-wing parties (the first ostensibly libertarian and reformist, the other two populist) formed by LDP breakaways after some of Koizumi's more controversial decisions. They actually enjoy pretty good relationships with the left-leaning parties because of their iconoclasm relative to the mainstream Japanese right.

New Party Daichi--True Democrats are a ragtag bunch of misfits who got themselves expelled from other parties, led by a Hokkaido regionalist and former crooked LDP functionary called Suzuki Muneo who just got out of prison about six months ago. I like these guys a lot. They don't seem to stand for much beyond being a halfway-house to rehabilitate (or try to rehabilitate) their careers and reputations, but these True Democrats are a true underdog story.

New Renaissance and Sunrise are both somewhat scary, very small groups of right-wingers. New Renaissance is ostensibly neoliberal, and Sunrise is backed by the current Governor of Tokyo, which for anybody who knows anything about Japanese politics should say it all. For those who don't, Governor Ishihara is basically a Japanese Jan Brewer with pretensions to intellectualism because he wrote some misogynistic novels way back in the fifties.

The Happiness Realization Party is like New Komeito except for a cult called Happy Science, and some of their leaders recently met with Herman Cain.

Since Koizumi left in 2006 they've had 6 PMs. 

Yes, Kan was the first since then to serve more than a year. He lasted fourteen months! It's to be hoped Noda can actually serve in three (three!) calendar years, if not more considering what an ass Tanigaki is. Unless LDP replaces Tanigaki before the election...

They actually have had exactly twenty since 1980, inclusive.

I thought I'd bump this thread because of Ozawa Ichiro's recent behavior. He's the leader of a new 51-seat (I think) block that just broke from the DPJ today. It's not an official party yet but it's going to be; not clear what it's going to be called or what its ostensible platform is going to be, since Ozawa has no apparent beliefs or standards.

The Noda Government still has a majority but it's much more tenuous than anybody thought it was likely to get, something like 241/479 in the House of Representatives for the DPJ itself and 254/479 or so counting the SDP, PNP, NPN, and NPD 'allies' (such as they are).

I'm kind of surprised the numbers of his new block are that low. I'd at least expect all 57 DJP members he whipped into voting against the government's big consumption tax increase to leave; at most I'd expect the up to 140 or so who supported his candidates for DJP leadership to join him.

The thing is, Noda isn't terribly popular (to an extent for entirely legitimate reasons, even though I'm about as sympathetic towards him as one can be under the circumstances) and not all of the people who were comfortable with following Ozawa into a situation that created an intraparty crisis in the ruling coalition are comfortable joining him in what looks to be an attempt to bring down the DPJ government outright for his own perceived gain. The Kaieda people from the most recent party leadership election I'm not so sure about, but Kaieda Banri's simply a lot more likable and honest than most people in Japanese politics even if his views are kind of nonsensical and awful (hence a lot of the Kaieda people probably genuinely are Kaieda people rather than Ozawa people), and if I had to guess I'd imagine he's probably regretting his support for Ozawa during the legal problems last year right about now.

Ozawa started from a place of a lot of goodwill within the membership of the DPJ but he's pissed it away even quicker than he did in the LDP twenty years ago. He makes his old mentor Tanaka Kakuei look comparatively aboveboard and on the level.

Update: Ozawa is now the head of 'People's Livelihood First: The Path of Independents', with 37 members of the House of Representatives.

Not only was he not able even to keep all of the people who initially defected with him several days ago, at least four or five of those people have since returned to the DPJ.

Party standings in the lower house (ruling party in bold, parties that to a greater or lesser extent are considered allied with the ruling party in italics):

Democratic Party of Japan ('Third Way', big-tent, could be considered Labour Right-esque in some systems): 250 (with the 'Independent Club')
Liberal Democratic Party (conservative, almost Right-Hegelian, big-tent): 120 (with the 'Assembly of Independents')
People's Livelihood First (Ozawa Ichiro appreciation life): 37 (aka the 'Path of Independents'. Noticing a theme?)
New Kōmeitō (Nichiren Buddhist, religious conservatives in the Japanese context, center-right, allied with the LDP): 21
Japanese Communist Party ('Eurocommunist' except it's not Europe): 9
Kizuna Party (left-liberal, anti-consumption tax and anti-Trans-Pacific Partnership): 9
Social Democratic Party ('Third Way' and more committedly so than the DPJ): 6 (with the 'Citizens' League')
Your Party (neoliberal): 5
People's New Party (populist, socially conservative but allied with the DPJ): 4
New Party Daichi – True Democrats (ragtag bunch of misfits): 3
Sunrise Party of Japan (nationalist in a somewhat worrying way): 2
New Party Nippon (centrist, the 'Nippon' in English is insistent terminology): 1
Tax Cuts Japan (tax cuts for Japan): 1

Speaker and Vice-Speaker: 2
Independents: 9

The government and its allies such as they are now have a notional majority of 266-213 out of 479 members (there's one vacancy, I'm not sure where), counting the Speaker and Vice-Speaker since Japan to the best of my knowledge uses Speaker Denison's rule. Unclear how many of those 266 would defect and vote to bring down Noda if the rubber hit the road, considering how much open backstabbing there is within Japanese political parties relative to other Westminster systems.

The notional majority was 320-160 after the last general election.

A poll from 8-10 of June (and like with Italy, they actually bother with decimal numbers)
No Party: 47.3%
LDP-20.9%
DPJ-16.9%
Your Party-2.7%
NKP-2.4%
JCP-1.7%
SDP-0.3%
Others-1.3%
Undecided-6.6%

If you take out the " no party" and "undecided" vote, that becomes:
LDP-45.3%
DPJ-36.7%
Your Party-5.9%
NKP-5.2%
JCP-3.7%
SDP-0.7%
Others-2.8%

So...LDP landslide.  Sheesh.  You'd think small parties like the Social Democrats and Communists would be getting former DPJ supporters who are angry with how they've governed.  Japan seems like the perfect breeding ground for equivalents of the Pirate Parties or the Movimento 5-Stelle.  Or even the Monster Raving Loonies. 

Almost an exact reversal of 2009, at least in the PV spread.

Japan doesn't strike me as the kind of country where a 5 Star Movement could ever take hold. If the Japanese were williing to vote for the LDP all the time over the last 30 years I don't see why they wouldn't vote for them now.

I've also wondered why the SD's or the Commies haven't seen a bump in support like they have in Europe.. is their a cultural disaffection with strongly or "true" leftwing parties? Its been what, since 90 that the old Socialists were in a strong position

I'd be interested to hear Nathan on this, but from what I've seen, if Japan was to get a true challenge to the two party system (not an add-on like NK) it would be from the far right, not the left.  That's the natural anti-system protest votes reservoir in Japan.

That's unfortunately quite likely. Look at the success of Ishihara, for instance. He's a former LDP minister of some description but he's definitely positioned himself as a 'protest vote' at various points, even though to all outside observers he's about as Establishment as it's conceivably possible to be in Japan without having had a man with a corncob pipe throw him in the clinker when he was young. This is a man who's openly contemplated the eternal mystery of why women past their childbearing years bother to stay alive and he's in his fourth term as Governor of Tokyo, because he's not outright incompetent and voting for a total far-right lunatic, while not the best way to register one's displeasure with the main parties and their shenanigans, certainly isn't the worst.

Taking out the 'No party' and redistributing the rest of the polling numbers doesn't strike me as particularly useful, although it's undeniable that there's a lot of discontent with the DPJ. People don't really want the LDP back either. It remains to be seen how Ozawa Ichiro Appreciation Life will affect this. Japan polls pretty sparingly and it's kind of all over the place. Personally I'd prefer an LDP government even though I really kind of despise Tanigaki Sadakazu. If it's depressingly impossible for a non-LDP government to get reelected it's best that Ozawa stay as far away from anywhere he can do damage as possible.

Socialists in Japan self-nuked after coalition with LDP from 1994 to 1996.

     July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Government officials close to
Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda told senior members of
the Liberal Democratic Party, the biggest opposition group, that
a general election will be held before the end of this year,
Kyodo News reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

LDP will be back after the next election.  But watch out for Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T%C5%8Dru_Hashimoto).  He represent a new force on a political scene where people are fed up with the two major parties.  He is for easing the Constitution's war-renouncing Article 9 and might tie up with Ozawa's new party.  I think this change in policy for Japan makese sense.  Even as a Chinese nationalist with my differences with Japan's past I feel that Japan should be able to be normal country with a normal military and independent foreign policy.  Just how long can one beat up a country over what happen back in WWII.

     Yukio Hatoyama, a former prime minister and force in the ruling 
Democratic Party of Japan, indicated Saturday there is a possibility 
he might back a no-confidence motion if the opposition submitted one 
against Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's administration, increasing 
the chances of the Noda government falling and a snap election being 
called.
     Hatoyama, whose party membership was suspended this week as 
punishment for voting against sales tax hike legislation that passed 
the House of Representatives last week, has formed a study group with 
about 20 other DPJ members of similar status. Ichiro Ozawa and 36 
other lower house members resigned from the ruling party, as they 
faced expulsion for also voting against the tax bill.
     "The Noda administration has moved far from the DPJ's original 
policies," Hatoyama said in answer to a question after a lecture in 
Beijing. "There are many points I cannot agree with." 
     But Hatoyama said it was not clear how we would vote if a 
no-confidence motion were brought against the Noda government.
     "From my policy standpoint of having opposed the tax hike bill, 
I have some inclination to side with a no-confidence motion, but the 
situation does not allow me to easily come to a conclusion," he said.
     If Hatoyama's group wholly backed a no-confidence motion, the 
ruling coalition of Noda's DPJ and the tiny People's New Party could 
fail to block it and Noda could be forced to either have his Cabinet 
resign en masse or to dissolve the lower house for a general election.

Does Hashimoto have any traction outside Kansai, though?  From what I'd heard, he wants to basically be the new Ishihara, making Osaka into his own fief.

For now I think he will keep his activities in the KinKi region.  But KinKi region is quite large and he is on his way to being the largest political force there.  He will very likely form alliances with other political forces in the next Diet elections as well making him a national figure if his block makes breakthroughs. 

Insert canned laughter here, right?

This is why we usually call the region in question 'Kansai'.

Recent events are a little irritating to me as a supporter of such a left as Japan has (and also somebody who wanted to be in Japan for the next election next summer!), but certainly not entirely surprising, and it's probable that the Goddamn LDP will be in power again. The most we can hope out of such an incidence is no [Inks]ing Trans-Pacific Parternship, and that is a big maybe.

I'm in agreement with Mikado on the subject of Hashimoto. Stylistically he's rather like a non-senescent, Osakan Ishihara and I think that's his game plan. Both of Japan's largest cities being run by far-right nutjobs doesn't sit especially well with me but it's better than them having national power. It's easy to underestimate how insane someone like Hashimoto really is and while that can a good way to entrench yourself locally in Japan it's not a usual route to national power, especially if it involves aligning oneself with Ozawa.

Also, Article 9 has quite a bit of traction in the Japanese public. I'm not sure of any polling numbers but at least a very large segment of Japan rightly sees its pacifist constitution as a national treasure, regardless of the circumstances of its imposition. The political will is for loosening of relations with the United States, not a return to the days of a standing Imperial Army.

I guess my Chinese bias comes in here.  The places is 近畿 and when pronounced in Chinese Mandrain is is very close to KinKi.  Sometimes it is called 関西 or Kansai where the similiarity to the Chinese Mandrain way of pronouncing it is much larger so I am used to calling that area KinKi.

I prefer 関西 by analogy to 関東, and that's what I've been taught by my Japanese instructors as well.

The old "Socialists" changed their name to DPJ.

The etiology of the DPJ isn't anywhere near as simple as that.

If there is a general election this year (2012), then does that mean that they will be using the same boundaries as at the last election?

Also you might like to know that NHK World (now in HD) broadcasts a type of election results programme so if any one would like me to record it, then please let me know and I will be able to estimate the cost of postage.

Osaka mayor eyes political realignment, hints at tie-up with Nod

OSAKA, July 10 Kyodo 
     Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto, who also leads a political group in 
the western Japan city, said Tuesday he is expecting a national 
political realignment to take place and suggested the possibility of 
a tie-up between his group and Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's ruling 
party.
     The mayor told reporters at Osaka city hall that he believes the 
main opposition Liberal Democratic Party and the ruling Democratic 
Party of Japan led by Noda will likely reorganize in the near future. 
"If politicians rally together for the premier, they will form a very 
strong administration," he said.
     "There are many rank-and-file LDP members who share the 
premier's vision. If they join forces and create a new group, it 
would gain a high approval rating," Hashimoto said.
     The mayor also said Noda's basic ideas, such as introducing a 
system for the direct election of the prime minister and accelerating 
decentralization to give more power to regions, are shared by his 
political group called "Osaka Ishin no Kai" (Osaka restoration group).
     Hashimoto had been rather critical of Noda's political skills 
but spoke highly of the premier Tuesday, saying he "has steadfastly 
made (important political) decisions."
     Noda's plan to double the nation's consumption tax rate from the 
current 5 percent has led to the recent departure of former DPJ 
leader Ichiro Ozawa and his allies from the ruling party.
     The Osaka mayor has expressed his readiness to enter national 
politics, suggesting his group would field candidates in the next 
general election that Noda could call at any time.

Ozawa courting Hashimoto for tieup

OSAKA — Former Democratic Party of Japan power broker Ichiro Ozawa is saying he would welcome a tieup with Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto in the next Lower House election.

The appeal, initiated Sunday, to the popular Hashimoto, who plans to field up to 300 candidates and hopes to capture 200 seats, came as the mayor and his supporters fine tune their political platform by calling for the national consumption tax to be turned into a local tax, and for a national referendum on whether to revise Article 9 of the Constitution.

Ozawa, expected to form a new political party Wednesday with around 50 followers, said his political philosophy is in tune with Hashimoto's Osaka Ishin no Kai (One Osaka).

"Hashimoto says that unless the fundamental way Japan is governed is changed, things will get worse. I've been saying this for a long time, and have emphasized that power must devolve from the central government to the local regions," Ozawa said on NHK.

"Hashimoto's thinking is basically the same as mine, and I want to tie up with those who think along similar lines."

Last week, Osaka Ishin no Kai finalized its political manifesto for the Lower House election. Though there were few changes from the basic platform released earlier this year, the revised version doesn't come out for or against raising the consumption tax. Instead, the group calls for it to become a local tax administered by local governments.

"The way to change Japan is by making the consumption tax a local tax, which will help local governments achieve independence from Tokyo and realize a system of semiautonomous regions," Hashimoto said last week.

The mayor believes that, along with the question of whether to keep using nuclear power, the structure of the sales tax will be the main issue in the next poll.

But he and Osaka Ishin no Kai have also stirred controversy among potential allies with another proposal, which is to revise the Constitution to allow revision by a simple majority vote instead of a two-thirds majority and then hold a national referendum on whether to revise Article 9, the passivist clause.

Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara said late last week that, rather than revise Article 9, the Constitution should be scrapped entirely. The governor, who plans to field his own supporters in the election, is a close ally of Hashimoto and would likely tie up with him after the election.

However, Ishihara and Ozawa have long been political opponents. Many in Osaka Ishin no Kai are reluctant to join forces with Ozawa, saying it's better to remain on good terms with Ishihara and that Hashimoto's rising popularity in Kansai and elsewhere means it's unnecessary to court Ozawa.

Iwate governor to part with DPJ and join Ozawa's planned party

Iwate Gov. Takuya Tasso said Monday he will part with the ruling Democratic Party of Japan this week and join the new party expected to be headed by former DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa.

"The new Ozawa party is expected to lead moves to open up new politics in Japan while standing by the people," Tasso told a press conference.

Tasso was elected governor for the first time in April 2007 after serving as a House of Representatives lawmaker from the DPJ. He is now in his second four-year term.

Ozawa and dozens of other DPJ lawmakers close to him bolted from the DPJ last week after casting dissenting votes against bills to hike the consumption tax during a Lower House plenary vote. Ozawa is a veteran Lower House member elected from a constituency in Iwate, one of the three prefectures hit hardest by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami last year.

Re: The first article, regarding Noda apparently thinking direct election of the Prime Minister is a good idea or makes any sense: NO. Seriously, just no.

Re: The second article: Ugh, these people are just horrible, aren't they?

Re: The third article: Of course, it's Iwate. Lovely place but Ozawa's little playground politically.

Hashimoto, Ishihara, and Ozawa under one roof?  Isn't it a cardinal rule of movements like that that you can only have one Fuehrer?  I doubt any of those egomaniacs would yield.

That's my hope. The worst case scenario is a more annoying repeat of 1993-6 with even less getting done.

Even back in 2006-2008 there were all kinds of talks/rumors of realignements where significant parts of the "reform" wings of LDP and DPJ would merge into a new party.  DPJ's landslide victory in 2009 ended such talks.  I think we might be entering into another period (like 1993-6) where there will be significant political realignment. This will be a political version of the Sengoku period of the 1500s (or 戦国時代) In theory this benifits Ozawa but he is not the same Ozawa of the 1990s. Local power brokers like Hashimoto I think will benifit due to disappointment with national parties.  I personally like Your Party, I think it has a lot of potential but not sure it will come out a winner in all this.

It's not the realignment in general that I have a problem with. I even think that, unlike in many other purportedly homogeneous countries, things like regionalization could be very good ideas in the particular Japanese context, even if it would give people like Ishihara more power within their own little fiefdoms; Tohoku and Chugoku, for example, simply do not face the same issues that Tokyo and Osaka and Nagoya do. In this respect and in some others relating to proposed structural reforms I'm certainly with people like Hashimoto and groups like Your Party. It's just that, everywhere else, these specific people are so incredibly awful that I really don't want them staying in power for very long, past the period of the realignment itself. Hashimoto isn't as despicable as Ozawa or Ishihara but that's setting the bar so low as to bury it in the ground. Remember that this is the man who's explicitly said that public employees don't have human rights.

I like the Kizuna Party, but I'm doubtful about their ability to benefit from any of this.

A history of Ozawa

     The following is a chronology of major events related to former  
Democratic Party of Japan leader Ichiro Ozawa, who launched a new  
party with his allies on Wednesday after breaking ranks with the DPJ.
     December 1969 -- Ozawa wins seat in the House of Representatives  
for the first time as a member of the Liberal Democratic Party.
     August 1989 -- Ozawa is promoted to LDP secretary general.
     June 1993 -- Ozawa quits the LDP and forms Shinseito, or Japan  
Renewal Party.  This leads to the fall of the LDP government.
     December 1994 -- Ozawa launches Shinshinto, or New Frontier  
Party.
     January 1998 -- Ozawa forms the Liberal Party, which is then
allied with LDP
     September 2003 -- The Liberal Party merges with the DPJ.
     April 2006 -- Ozawa becomes DPJ leader.
     May 2009 -- Ozawa resigns as party leader over a political funds  
scandal, becomes acting leader in charge of elections.
     September -- The Cabinet led by DPJ chief Yukio Hatoyama is  
launched, with Ozawa assuming the post of the party's secretary  
general.
     June 2010 -- Ozawa resigns as DPJ secretary general, while  
Hatoyama resigns as prime minister.
     January 2011 -- Ozawa faces mandatory indictment over the funds  
scandal.
     April 2012 -- Ozawa wins acquittal at a district court.
     June 26 -- Ozawa votes against a tax-hike bill in the lower  
house.
     July 2 -- Ozawa and his allies submit letters of resignation  
from the DPJ.
     July 11 -- Ozawa launches new party "Kokumin no Seikatsu ga  
Daiichi," which roughly means putting people's lives first.

It is also funny that when I do a search on Youtube for Ozawa to watch videos on developments for Ozawa's new party, all I get is videos of porn star "Maria Ozawa."

Most believe Ozawa's new party not a game-changer; Noda's rating drifts lower

Note that  Hashimoto's outfit level is support is almost as high as DPJ.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

More than 80 percent of voters think the new party formed by former Democratic Party of Japan leader Ichiro Ozawa will not significantly impact politics, a survey said Sunday.

The nationwide survey by Kyodo News, which drew responses from 1,012 voters on Saturday and Sunday, also said that the approval rating for Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's Cabinet had fallen 1.8 points since June to 28.1 percent and that its disapproval rating rose 5.7 points to 60 percent.

On Wednesday, Ozawa launched a new political party named Kokumin no Seikatsu ga Daiichi (People's Life First) to challenge the Noda government over its push to double the country's 5 percent sales tax rate by late 2015.

According to the results of the poll, 57.9 percent oppose enacting the tax legislation at this time, while 36.7 percent support it.

The House of Councilors is holding deliberations on the bills, which cleared the House of Representatives last month.

Asked which party they would support in the proportional representation portion of the next general election, 19.2 percent said the opposition-leading Liberal Democratic Party and 14.1 percent said Noda's ruling DPJ.

Another 13.2 percent said they would support the fledgling group Osaka Ishin no Kai (One Osaka) led by Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto, while 5.6 percent opted for the new Ozawa party.

As for the reactor in Fukui Prefecture that became the first to resume power generation since the Fukushima disaster, 51.9 percent said they oppose reactor restarts and 40.7 percent said they support them.

Asked what the kind of government they wanted to emerge from the next general election, 38.8 percent said they prefer a new framework based on a realignment of the major parties, the highest figure since Noda took office. Another 19.8 percent said they prefer a DPJ-LDP grand coalition, while 16.3 percent want to revert back to the old LDP-led government and 7.9 percent want a DPJ-led government.

So Kizuna has apparently allied with Ozawa Ichiro Appreciation Life. Quite frankly, I'm hugely disappointed. They're hitching their wagon to a moron.

Well, Kizuna broke from DPJ over the consumption tax issue, the same reason Ozawa broke with DPJ.

I know. It makes sense politically, they just seem like horrible judges of character. If I were them I would have tried to cobble together a coalition with some of the other very small parties.

Insert Marx quote here

Let's play a game!

WHO SAID IT: HASHIMOTO OR STALIN?

We think that a powerful and vigorous movement is impossible without differences — 'true conformity' is possible only in the cemetery.

I want each of you to see yourself as a person who now has no personal privacy and no fundamental human rights.

''No' to cutting off weak people. 'No' to widening disparity. 'No' to competition' —  these sweet words are really dangerous. We will stop this evil trend.

Education is a weapon whose effects depend on who holds it in his hands and at whom it is aimed.

When you approach cockroaches, they dash off even though they have no eyes on their back. They have a great sense of crisis and we have to share the same sense of crisis.

The precondition of our national character is our blood.

This leads to the conclusion, it is time to finish retreating. Not one step back!

The Jews are not a nation!

One thing that will stop Hashimoto, Ishihara and Ozawa from coming togeather is differences in domestic policy but mainly significant differences in foreign policy.  All are for a more independent Japanese foreign policy.  Ishihara is anti-Mainland China, anti-Korea, and anti-Russia.    Hashimoto talks a lot about assertive nationalism but Hashimoto appears less anti-Mainland China or anti-Russia in tone, and more likely to advocate a pragmatic power
politics stance of improving ties with these two powers.  Ozawa is strongly pro-Mainland China and would find it hard to forge common cause with Ishihara on foreign policy.  In this context, it may be difficult for these new local political forces to create a credible foreign policy which they can take to influence the national level.
   

Well, it was inevitable. 
http://m.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jul/30/japan-green-party-nuclear-power?cat=environment&type=article (http://m.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jul/30/japan-green-party-nuclear-power?cat=environment&type=article)

Wiki says that the DPJ and LDP have agreed to a snap election in January once a VAT increase is passed. Any news on that?

First I've heard of it, but I'm unsurprised. My guess would be that there's a feeling in the two establishment parties to get this over with and give the various insurgent groups as little time as possible to really organize and get good candidate recruitment going. Personally, I welcome this, not because I like the DPJ and LDP very much but because Ozawa Ichiro Appreciation Life, the Hashists, and their ilk, with the possible exception of this new Greens Japan outfit, which apparently isn't going to contest anything until the upper house election next July, are just awful.

Consumption tax hike is never happening. Supposedly, the hikes only kick in when Japan registers consistent 2% GDP growth for an entire fiscal year.

That is never ever going to happen. Hah. Hah. Hah.

Regardless, I'm excited about these new elections. Even though the polling is scary, I don't think there's anything to worry about. The DPJ and LDP should still take the bulk of the votes (being the only serious parties running people everywhere), with YP taking a respectable third (at least running candidates everywhere in the Kanto plains). Of course, I'll be rooting for my DPJ homeboy, but I'm fine with all three of these parties.

Also, I haven't met anyone who actually thinks Hashimoto will do anything in the snap election. If he really wants a national audience, he'll wait for the next upper-house election.

Any result that keeps the green/anti-restart nutjobs out of power is okay with me and luckily, that seems like every conceivable result.

I feel the same way about the socially far-right/anti-Article 9 nutjobs, so I share most of your opinion on this.

Increasingly I think that Japan needs to start thinking seriously about what its post-demographic-apocalypse self might look like. There will be suffering at the level of the postwar for at least a few years at that point but I think there are, to borrow a phrase from Herman Kahn, several tragic but distinguishable post-crash environments.

I'll be rooting for Noda despite my disapprobation for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, both because somebody who's actually from Japan whose opinions I trust and respect likes him a lot and because his general policy program is to my mind better than Tanigaki's in most areas.

I don't think Japanese demographics are as bad as everyone says.

I mean, they're bad, but they're not outside of the Asian norm. The birth rate has even recovered to 1.4, which makes Japan the best nation in East Asia (compare to .89 for Taiwan, 1.18 for Mainland China, and 1.21 for South Korea).

Plus, debt might become an issue, but I don't think MoF is seriously concerned. They've been trying to inflate the yen for decades (enyasu, whoooo), so there's not a huge rush towards austerity yet.

I actually oppose Article 9 and all, but I'm fairly confident in our ability to ignore it if/when convenient (like the American commerce clause!), so it's not a huge issue.

If I could vote, I'd probably vote for YP on the proportional rep. ballot and for my (former) local DPJ man, largely because I really like him.

The birthrate has recovered somewhat? Oh, thank you, knowing that is helpful to my perspective on Japan and its future (having an informed perspective on such is important for me, since I'm an academic East Asianist, albeit one with an early-modern focus).


I support it on pacifist principle, but you're right, it's more just a nice sentiment to have in a Constitution than something that has a huge impact on relevant types of policy.


Probably a straight DPJ vote for me if I were Japanese, unless there was a moderate, non-flaky JCP or SDP candidate in the offing or something.

There is no such thing as a moderate JCP member. The JCP understands why the JSP collapsed. They are probably the most ideologically homogenous political organization in all of East Asia. Which is why their true believers show up to vote for them in every single election even though they have no chance of winning.

Also, party isn't as important in non-JCP Japan as it is in say, the West. Who the local representative actually /is/ is probably far more important than their party. After all, the DPJ is filled with former JSPers /and/ former LDPers, very few who have changed their basic political orientation.

That being said, my homeboy is wonderful.

Who is he and what's he like?

Aforementioned person I trust's district member is apparently one Hosoda Hiroyuki from the LDP.

See

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVfxZ8ojC3Q&feature=my_liked_videos&list=LLBZqnIPPjMvxL1cq6anDjYw

I think what Taro Kono says makes a lot of sense.  It matches a lot of what Your Party asserts and frankly a lot of what USA Republicans/Libertarians stands for.

News below came out a couple of days ago.  If the election were held now I would say
that LDP would get around 200 seats, DPJ 100 seats, and the rest spread out across all
kind of parties like Your Party, Sunrise, New Komeito, SDP, JCP, Ozawa's new outfit, various
postal reform rebel parties from 2005, and of course Hashimoto's outfit.  I dare say that if
Hash**tmoto does well and is able to get a pre-election coalition togeather of various non-LDP
non-DPJ parties, it could really hurt DPJ ine the FPTP seats and hand LDP-Komeito a majority
where as where things stands now I feel LDP-Komeito will not get a majority.  Either way I
cannot see a situtation where DPJ does well.  Noda I feel might have done the right thing
from a fiscal point of view but is really bad politically for him and his party.


   Tokyo (DPA) -- Japan's unpopular Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda
has reportedly suggested to the main opposition party that he is
planning to put back the next election to November, but public
patience is wearing thin, analysts said.
   "Noda is trying to postpone an election date, but public
discontent has come to a head and Japanese people are urging him
to hold an election now," Minoru Morita, a political analyst,
said.
   According to polls, Noda's ruling Democratic Party of Japan
(DPJ) would take a drubbing in the next election. A series of
recent territorial disputes with neighbouring countries has
angered many Japanese and made Noda look weak.
   The beleaguered premier also infuriated the growing number of
anti-nuclear voters by approving the restart of two reactors on
the Sea of Japan coast, the first reactivation after last year's
nuclear disaster, despite fierce public opposition and experts'
warning of fault lines under the complex.
   The public also showed signs of feeling betrayed after the DPJ
decided to double sales tax to 10 per cent by 2015, despite an
election campaign pledge not to.
   The campaign earned the DPJ a landslide victory in 2009,
ending more than a half-century of almost uninterrupted rule by
the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
   The tax-hike legislation is particularly unpopular as many
Japanese do not feel the economy is recovering. More than 50
lawmakers also left the DPJ in protest against the increase.
   On August 8, Noda and the two main opposition parties - the
LDP and the New Komeito - struck a deal to pass the tax-hike
legislation in exchange for a promise to dissolve the lower house
for an election "sometime soon," the premier told reporters at
the time.
   But he told LDP leader Sadakazu Tanigaki the same day that the
election would be on November 4 or 11, Kyodo News agency reported
Thursday, citing an unnamed LDP lawmaker.
   The LDP rejected those dates, and urged Noda to dissolve the
lower house within the current parliamentary session, which ends
September 8, the source told Kyodo.
   The LDP and the New Komeito, which control the upper house,
are threatening to issue a censure motion against Noda, for
passing legislation without the required participation of all
lawmakers. Such a motion would put considerable pressure on the
premier to step down.
   But analysts said the opposition may have overestimated its
gains from the government's unpopularity, as many Japanese have
been disenchanted with all existing parties over the current
economic situation and nuclear power policy.
   Many lawmakers and the mainstream media failed to grasp this
aspect of public sentiment, Morita said. "They have been out of
touch with the public as they are obsessed with politics in
Tokyo," Morita said.
   Whenever the election ends up being held, it is, therefore,
likely that no party may gain an effective majority.
   So more political confusion is expected under a fragile
coalition government, while the nation continues to struggle with
a flagging economy and deteriorating relations with China and
South Korea. dpa tk cds Author: Takehiko Kambayashi

I don't see why everyone thinks Hashimoto is going to have "an outfit". I simply cannot see him building a national party, or even a regional party (in Kansai) in a matter of weeks. Plus, third parties never break in during general elections. If he's smart, he's going to wait until the next upper house election and pull what YP did.

Also, I don't think the LDP is going to do that well. The problem with the LDP is that very few people actually like it. I could see them with a plurality of 160-170 or so, but 200 is a little difficult.

The member of the district I once lived in was Seiji Maehara, who I still very much like.

Anyways, if you're looking for a votematch/political compass type test to help you in Japanese politics, the Yomiuri has a good one for the 2010 House of Councillor's Election.

http://vote.yomiuri.co.jp

I got what I expected, 69% for the DPJ and Your Party.

SDP and then Komeito. Huh, not really what I was expecting for second. DPJ and Your Party were both considerably higher than the LDP.

Yeah, my third party was Tachigare Nippon, which weirded the hell out of me. But it's probably because the Constitution question gave them a huge boost. The LDP also scored fairly low.

I took the test too. I cannot claim to know too much about some of the issues raised.  But as expected Your Party was my top party. 

I agree that the LDP is not that popular but they do not need to be.  LDP has a deep bench whereas DJP does not in terms of a farm league of politicans that can win the personal vote without the party label.   I agree in the PR segment LDP will be the largest party but will not do that well,  It is in the FPTP section that LDP will romp home.  The anti-LDP vote will be splintered due to the disappointment in DPJ and LDP candidates will get enough LDP + personal vote to win a lot of seats where if if "against all" was an option like Russia, "against all" would win. 

The LDP has largely lost their electoral edge in the rural "farm leagues". Nokyo stopped endorsing LDP candidates by default in 2003 and I'm pretty sure the urban-rural gap vanished by 2005.

Keep in mind, the DPJ, especially on the FPTP level, are still largely staffed by long-term politicians from other parties. Most of them have been around since at least the eight-party period of the 90's and some of them are long-serving LDP/JSP members.

A lot of the institutional support for LDP candidates (ie, counting on corporate cash, doctors, farmers, postal workers), this was all vanishing even before 2009. And it hasn't come back. Some members in the LDP have yet to understand that they are simply no longer the default party of government. I do think they are poised to do well, but not 200-seats well.

Also, I'd like Your Party a lot more if it weren't for their decidely anti-bureaucrat rhetoric, which although very popular among the public, turns me off a lot.

Is there a version in a language I can understand?

Thanks for your insights.  Say that LDP gets 160-170 and New Komeito gets is usual 25-30 (22-23 PR plus a few FPTP seats), where does that leave government formation as LDP-New Komeito will have about almost 200 seats.  Under this situation DPJ will most likely have about 140 seats.  I just do not see any viable government unless it is a LDP-DPJ grand coalition.  Even if LDP-Komeito or DPJ manage to cobble up a coalition government it almost will not have a majority in the upper house unless it is a massive coalition which most likley will collpase under its own weight soon anyway.  But without a majority in the Upper house it will just be a re-run of the twisted diet of 2007 to 2009 and 2010 to now where nothing gets done.  This whole comsumption tax business of Noda seems to me a desperate attempt to get anything done but pushing for something that was actually in the LDP manifesto.  So if so are we not looking at a LDP-DPJ government? 

Hmmm... you might have to educate me here.  I thought that Watanabe formed Your Party in 2009 before the 2009 elections and actually ran candidates in the 2009 elections.  Granted Your Party did much better in 2010 elections but I have to assume that Your Party built on its efforts in 2009 which led to its good results in 2010.  Also what is different between 2009 and 2010 is that in 2009 DPJ captured most of the anti-LDP vote and that vote got split over many parties in 2010 as disappointment in DPJ set in.  It seems a 2012 election will be more like 2010 than 2009 where there will be a lot of anti-LDP/anti-DPJ votes up for grabs.  I  agree it would be hard for Hashimoto to put something togeather that quickly which means it might not be able to realize the opportunity it has been given but I would think the opportunity is there in 2012.

Uh...you could try google translate. It would probably be a complete fail though. If I have a lot of extra time tonight, I might try and translate it.


Komeito does not have any FPTP seats. It is very unlikely to gain any FPTP seats. I'm not even sure if Komeito can pull of that respectable 22-23 PR.

Also, a grand coalition would be unbelievably bitter medicine. The relationship between the DPJ and LDP is very rocky and angry. The DPJers believe the LDP has blocked them on everything in a sole attempt to win the next election. I know people point to the JSP-LDP coalition as inspiration, but contrary to popular beliefs, the LDP and JSP actually had a pretty good working relationship after the 70's. After all, most of the major scandals hit people from both parties.

Of course, it seems very unlikely that any bill could get passed in the new Diet without both LDP and DPJ support, but that's essentially the situation we ALREADY have. The LDP is really pushing for a new diet for three reasons

1) Tanigaki is running out of time. LDP leadership elections are in September. He will probably lose them.

2) The LDP has a tiny sliver of a chance in that if the DPJ completely collapses and their support goes EVERYWHERE ELSE, the LDP could be in a position where they could pass bills with either DPJ support OR the support of several smaller parties. This would be much better for them than the current cohabitation.

3) Under a new diet, the LDP could probably unilaterally trigger a loss of confidence and new elections if their support ever recovered from the total base minimum fail that it is currently at.

YP did exceptionally well in 2010 because of how Upper House elections work. They had enough support in the Kanto plains to take a seat in several of the multi-member districts, but not enough to outright win pluralities. In short, YP would have won very few FPTP districts, but could come second or third in prefectures that they were strong in. People knew that and knew that if they lived in the Kanto plains, voting for a YP candidate would not be a waste.

I mean, Hashimoto very well could run people in 2012. And he's filed enough paperwork so that he could if he wanted to. At the same time, his performance would probably be underwhelming if he did.

On the other hand, waiting until 2013 to run for the Upper House is also a tricky position considering Hashimoto wants to abolish the upper house.

Given that google translate is a complete and utter failure at translating between English and languages closely related to it... I figured it probably wasn't worth trying for Japanese. ;D

Osaka mayor to establish new political party


OSAKA, Aug. 28 Kyodo 
 (EDS: ADDING NEW INFO IN 4TH AND 5TH GRAPHS)
     Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto plans to establish a new national 
political party as early as mid-September ahead of the approaching 
general election for the House of Representatives, political sources
said Tuesday.
     The Osaka-based local political group Osaka Ishin no Kai (Osaka
Restoration Association) that Hashimoto, a reform-minded 
lawyer-turned-politician, founded in April 2010 will call on more 
than five current Diet members to join the new party, the sources 
said.
     Under the law, a political party needs to have at least five 
Diet members under its wing or to have gained more than 2 percent of
votes cast in the latest national election.
     An official of the group said that five lawmakers are set to 
leave their parties and join Hashimoto's group as early as 
Your Party.
     Hashimoto, leader of Osaka Ishin no Kai, told reporters Tuesday 
his group has yet to decide on the establishment of the new political 
party.
     Hashimoto apparently does not want to link up with any existing 
political parties but to unite with individual lawmakers to try to 
distinguish the new party from conventional ones, the sources said.
     Osaka Ishin no Kai plans to unveil a set of election promises 
later this week. It also plans to invite incumbent lawmakers to an 
open forum in Osaka on Sept. 9 and look at their opinions on its 
Shinji Oguma, a House of Councillors member from Your Party, were 
among the members who met with him.
     On Wednesday, Osaka Gov. Ichiro Matsui, who serves as secretary 
general of Osaka Ishin no Kai, said the group would not call on 
current political parties to join the Sept. 9 open forum but would 
like to discuss issues with individual lawmakers.
     Hashimoto, 43, who was once a TV personality, won the Osaka 
gubernatorial election in January 2008, and then resigned in November 
2011 to run in the Osaka mayoral election.
     Hashimoto, who proposed the administrative abolition of the two 
large cities of Osaka and Sakai to create a metropolis similar to 
Tokyo in a bid to avoid overlapping administrative structures, beat 
incumbent Osaka Mayor Kunio Hiramatsu in the November 2011 election.
     Osaka Ishin no Kai was established in April last year and 
includes more than 100 mayors and prefectural and municipal assembly 
members in its ranks.
     In June this year, Osaka Ishin no Kai launched a political 
school, called Ishin Seijijuku, which is intended to train 
politicians who can take the lead in reforming Japan's governance.
election promises.
     The group also plans to publicly solicit candidates for the next 
general election and field candidates in the election on a nationwide 
scale.
     On Sept. 8, Osaka Ishin no Kai is scheduled to hold a meeting of 
prefectural and municipal assembly members who are members of the 
group and confirm these targets. Hashimoto may declare the 
establishment of the new party at the group's fundraising function on 
Sept. 12, the sources said.
     In mid-August, Hashimoto met with members of a bipartisan group 
on local administration reforms in Osaka. Matsuno, Matsunami and 
mid-September.
     Among the five are Yorihisa Matsuno, a fourth-term lower house
member of the governing Democratic Party of Japan, and Kenta 
Matsunami, a third-term lower house member of the main opposition 
Liberal Democratic Party, as well as two members from the opposition

Well, damn. Looks like I was completely wrong. I suppose he did change his mind over the last six months. Perhaps the Bunraku thing forced his hand?

The bunraku thing?

Some updates from Tanigaki's Wiki page: the HOR passed the VAT hike and a censure motion against Noda. Now the opposition parties are boycotting debate and apparently Tanigaki might face leadership challenges from Abe and others.

My understanding is that, as koenkai has said, Tanigaki is much more likely to lose any leadership challenge at this point, before an election, than to win one. The DPJ also might have a leadership election coming up, but among people who still support the DPJ after events of the past few months Noda seems to retain some measure of popularity and respect.

The Japanese media seems to think that Noda will not call elections just yet, and may in fact try to govern Japan through an opposition boycott of the Diet for the next...however long. Days, weeks. I hope not months.

I've always personally rather liked Abe for some reason, even though I don't agree with the bulk of his political positions even in the Japanese context.

Factional crap again? Cause he's about to lead them back to power so presumably it isn't a performance problem.

It kind of is, in that he's about to lead them back to power through lack of any other options, not because there's anything remotely impressive about him or his leadership.

It is also factional crap, though. This is the Diet of Japan after all.

LDP should put responsibilities ahead of party politics (http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/editorial/T120830004322.htm)

I strongly doubt the other contenders are any more impressive, but they'll probably do it if the factions can agree on a single Anti-Tanigaki. As for the editorial agreed 100%. Brazen contempt for voter intelligence.

Japan Political Turmoil Forces Government to Plan Spending Delay

     Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) --  Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi
said the government may delay payment of 4 trillion yen ($51
billion) in tax revenue to local governments if a bill needed to
finance spending isn’t passed soon.
     “Funds for the general account may dry up if the bill
isn’t passed during the parliamentary session” ending on Sept.
8, Azumi said at a press conference in Tokyo today. “We need to
consider postponing as much spending as possible to delay the
timing of budget depletion.”
     Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda’s effort to pass legislation
to issue 38.3 trillion yen of deficit-financing bonds stalled
after the opposition-dominated upper house passed a censure
motion against him this week, halting parliamentary business.
Azumi said that the government will continue to pay interest on
already issued bonds as planned.
     As well as delaying tax transfers scheduled for early
September to municipalities and prefectures, the government is
also considering temporarily cutting spending on travel,
building upkeep and other internal costs by more than half,
according to documents released by the Finance Ministry today.
     The government could hit the spending ceiling as soon as
October without the passage of bill, the documents showed. The
revenues from the deficit financing bonds account for 42 percent
of this year’s budget.

I really hope Taro Kono runs again.  I feel what he advocates really
make a lot of sense.

Japan Opposition LDP to Hold Leadership Contest Sept. 26

     Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s main opposition Liberal
Democratic Party will hold its leadership contest on Sept. 26,
the party said in a statement.
     LDP President Sadakazu Tanigaki is expected to run for re-
election, the Yomiuri newspaper said today, without citing
anyone. Former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba and ex-premier
Shinzo Abe will also probably run, according to separate Yomiuri
reports.
     The ruling Democratic Party of Japan will meet Sept. 21 to
decide whether to retain Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda as its
leader.

While I agree with you that given the way lower house elections work versus how upper house elections works (FPTP vs some multi membered seats) does make it easier for YP to do well for upper house elections.  In the case of 2009 vs 2010 performance of YP I feel a much greater factor is just raw number of votes.  In 2009 lower house elections YP got .87% of the district vote and 4.27% of the PR vote, which translated into 2 FPTP seats and 3 PR seats out of the total 480 seats available.  In 2010 upper house elections YP got 10.24% of the district vote and 13.59% of the PR vote, which translated into 3 district seats and 7 PR seats out of 121 seats available.  YP ran a lot less candidates in 2009 FPTP than in 2010.  That is most likely because what you pointed out that in 2010 these candidates are more likely to win due to the systems.  But another and I feel bigger factor just has to be that YP was much more popular in 2010 versus 2009 as seen in the jump in the PR vote share from 2009 to 2010.   

His idea of having one giant PR bloc is interesting but does have
the net affect of messing up the Costa Rica arrangements lots of
parties like LDP and DPJ where people alternate between PR list
of a bloc and a district of said bloc.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Hashimoto group to propose halving No. of lower house seats+

     Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto said Thursday that his political 
group is planning to propose cutting the number of seats in the House 
of Representatives to 240 from the present 480, as part of its policy 
pledges for an upcoming general election.
     The regional political group will try to cut the number of seats 
for the lower house's single-seat constituencies to 150 from the 
present 300, the popular mayor said at a news conference.
     Hashimoto, leader of Osaka Ishin no Kai (Osaka restoration 
association), said that one seat is enough for each of Japan's 47 
prefectures but that he will propose expanding the area of each 
constituency to one with a population of about 1 million.
     On the proportional representation system, Hashimoto said his 
group will aim to abolish the current 11 regional blocs and instead 
establish one for the whole country, with cutting the number of seats 
to 90 from the current 180.
     Currently, the number of seats in a general election for the 
lower house stands at 480 -- 300 seats for single-seat constituencies 
and 180 seats for proportional representation in 11 blocs.
     Osaka Ishin no Kai plans to incorporate those proposals in a set 
of election promises under the title Ishin Hassaku (eight policy 
programs for restoring the country).
     Osaka Ishin no Kai, which is currently composed of local 
politicians such as mayors and assembly members, plans to establish a
new national political party as early as mid-September with the next 
general election approaching.
     Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda promised earlier this month in 
talks with opposition leaders dissolving the lower house "sometime 
soon" in exchange for their help in passing tax hike legislation.
     Hashimoto, speaking at the news conference, also criticized 
incumbent lawmakers for attending funeral services or joining "bon" 
dance festivals in their constituencies.
     He said Diet members need to keep some distance from voters, 
noting that their duties are to decide on the course of the country.
     Hashimoto proposed the administrative abolition of the two large
cities of Osaka and Sakai to create a metropolis similar to Tokyo in 
a bid to avoid overlapping administrative structures.
     The Osaka mayor said he himself would not run in the next 
general election, noting that his mission is to realize the Osaka 
metropolis.
     Hashimoto established Osaka Ishin no Kai in April last year. 
Osaka Gov. Ichiro Matsui serves as its secretary general and more 
than 100 prefectural and municipal assembly members in Osaka 
Prefecture are part of the group.
     Hashimoto, 43, a lawyer who was once a TV personality, won the 
Osaka gubernatorial election in January 2008, and then resigned in 
November 2011 to run in the Osaka mayoral election.

How well can the Japanese Communist Party perform in the upcoming election ? If I recall well, it's still the fourth largest party in Parliament after DPJ, LPD and New Komeito, and they always reach a 6 to 10 % share of votes. Also, do they have any influence at all on who will form the next government ?

Hashimoto indulges in vaguely populist smoke and mirrors as usual. What would halving the size of the House of Representatives--making it I should add slightly smaller than the House of Councillors--actually accomplish?


Neither particularly better nor worse than usual, I should think, and no, unless things are very mechakucha mathematically.

Well, I don't think anyone actually knew who YP was. Those small lower house seats gave them a platform to advertise their new party. On the other hand, I think people already know who Hashimoto is.


The JCP has a very high floor (dedicated support base) and a very low ceiling (everyone else in Japan thinks they're batsh**t insane). They'll do the same as always.

It seems Hashimoto's party is polling ahead of DPJ now.
Of course it really does not have the organization to translate
this into seats as of yet. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
58.3% want lower house dissolution: Kyodo poll

     Over half of Japan's eligible voters believe Prime Minister 
Yoshihiko Noda should dissolve the lower house for a general election
following his censure by the upper house last month, an opinion poll 
by Kyodo News showed Sunday.
     The response of 58.3 percent of those surveyed indicates a 
growing desire among the public to give a verdict on the ruling 
Democratic Party of Japan, which secured passage of legislation to 
double the nation's 5 percent consumption tax rate by 2015.
     The poll also showed that Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto's political
group, which plans to set up a new party for the next general 
election, ranks second after the main opposition Liberal Democratic 
Party in terms of voting intentions for the proportional 
representation block of the lower house election, securing the 
support of 17.6 percent of respondents, up 6.9 percentage points from
the previous survey in August.
     It was the first time in the poll that Hashimoto's group has 
secured greater support than the DPJ. Support for the LDP stood at 
22.2 percent while the DPJ secured 12.4 percent.
     Among other parties, Your Party secured 5.4 percent support, the
New Komeito party 3.9 percent, the Japanese Communist Party 2.6 
percent, People's Life First led by former DPJ chief Ichiro Ozawa 2.1 
percent, and the Social Democratic Party 0.8 percent.
     Public support for Noda's Cabinet stood at 26.3 percent, 
slightly down from 27.9 percent in August, while the disapproval 
rating stood at 59.4 percent, edging up from 59.0 percent, according 
to the nationwide telephone survey conducted Saturday and Sunday that 
received responses from 1,014 eligible voters.
     On Noda's course following the censure motion, 28.4 percent said 
he did not need to step down as the motion was not legally binding, 
while 7.1 percent said the entire Cabinet should resign.
     On the timing of the dissolution of the House of 
Representatives, 30.1 percent said the lower house should be 
dissolved during the extraordinary Diet session in fall, while 22.9 
percent said it should be dissolved during the current parliamentary 
session through Sept. 8.
     The poll also showed 22.0 percent are expecting a double 
election for the lower house and the House of Councillors next summer.
     In the poll, 55.9 percent of respondents said they do not think 
Noda's government handled appropriately an incident last month in 
which Chinese activists landed on one of the Japanese-controlled 
Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, while 39.7 percent said the 
matter was dealt with appropriately.
     Japanese authorities arrested and deported all 14 people on the 
Hong Kong vessel that sailed to the disputed islands

So word on the street is that Tanigaki may not even have the signatures neccesary to run again for the leadership elections, because the Koga faction may not be behind him again.

Anyways, that means every single possible replacement candidate will be far more hawkish on international issues (Tanigaki being generally considered a moderate), which may to lead to funtimes if/when the LDP retakes a plurality.

Okay, just for the hell of this I'm doing this google-translated.

Questions that work particularly badly, making them impossible or near-impossible to answer:

"Constitution. You should maintain the current constitutional".
"Teacher's license renewal system. Should be overhauled Naishiwa abolished the current teacher license renewal" (What's "Naishiwa"?)
"Elderly health care system. Health care system should be abolished Elderly."
"Post, raising limits Kampo. Should increase the maximum amount each deposit of postal savings and insurance limits Simple."
"Abolition of set-aside policy. Policy (set-aside) should be abolished rice production adjustment." This appears to be about an agricultural subsidy, but what exactly is being said?
"Reviewing judge system. System should be overhauled judge." I suppose the issue here is with the original question rather than the ungrammatical translation, actually (same with the first one). Overhauled? Towards what?
"Visualization of interrogation. Should proceed with the visualization of interrogation" Tf?
"Governments. We should introduce a system of state road." Headline and question don't seem to match - which one is the dramatically mistranslated one?

Anyways, results with don't knows on all these...

SDP 89%
Commies 77%
Komeito 48%
Your Party 42%
New Party people 42%
DPJ 36%
LDP 18%
Our Japan 18%
New Party Reform 12%

Seems to be rating only the 17 questions I gave answers to, as it clarifies 89% as 15-2 etc.

From Kyodo news. 
---------------------------------------------------------------
 7 lawmakers leaving parties to join Osaka mayor's new party

     Seven lawmakers announced Tuesday that they will leave their 
current parties to join a new political party to be set up soon by 
Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto.
     Among the seven are three from the ruling Democratic Party of 
Japan -- Yorihisa Matsuno, a former deputy chief Cabinet secretary 
and a House of Representatives member, Takashi Ishizeki, also a lower 
house lawmaker, and Masashi Mito, a House of Councillors member.
     Once the three lawmakers leave the ruling party, the DPJ-led 
parliamentary group's strength will stand at 87 in the 242-seat upper 
house -- the same as the LDP-led group's. The ruling bloc's strength 
in the 480-seat lower house would stand at 245, slightly above a 
simple majority.
     Matsuno told reporters that he would revive the idea of 
politicians taking the lead in administration rather than 
bureaucrats, and promote reform of the Diet as a member of the new 
party.
     A senior DPJ lawmaker said the new party leadership, to be 
formed after the party's Sept. 21 presidential election, will decide 
on whether to accept the three lawmakers' letters of resignation.
     The other lawmakers leaving their parties are Kenta Matsunami, a 
lower house member of the main opposition Liberal Democratic Party, 
and three upper house members of the smaller opposition Your Party -- 
Shinji Oguma, Hiroshi Ueno and Fumiki Sakurauchi.
     The seven lawmakers agreed to participate in a fundraising event 
that Hashimoto's local political group, called Osaka Ishin no Kai 
(Osaka restoration association), will hold in Osaka on Wednesday.
     It is expected that Hashimoto will declare the establishment of 
a new political party, to be called Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan 
restoration association), at that event.
     Speaking to reporters in Osaka on Tuesday, Hashimoto welcomed 
the seven lawmakers' departure from their parties. Hashimoto is 
expected to head the new political party.

My understanding is that Ishihara junior is actaully fairly moderate
within the LDP on foreign policy and for sure a lot more moderate
when compared to his father.  If he wins LDP leadership race we
would have a father-son pair leader of parties.  Ishihara senior
at the head of Sunrise Party and Ishihara junior at head of LDP.
After the elections they might even have coalition talks over a
family reunion dinner :)

-------------------------------------------------------------
Ishihara emerges as leading candidate in LDP leadership race

     Nobuteru Ishihara, secretary general of the main opposition 
Liberal Democratic Party, declared his candidacy on Tuesday for the 
party's presidential election, emerging as a leading contender to 
become Japan's prime minister should his party win a general election 
to be held within a year.
     His declaration came after several days of wrangling in which 
Ishihara, the party's No. 2 man, tried to force his boss, incumbent 
LDP chief Sadakazu Tanigaki, to bow out of the Sept. 26 race.
     Many LDP lawmakers had expressed concern that the party may fail 
to attract wider public support in the next House of Representatives 
election with Tanigaki as leader, despite low support ratings for the 
ruling Democratic Party of Japan, headed by Prime Minister Yoshihiko 
Noda.
     The LDP leadership race has drawn attention as the party could 
form the largest political force in the lower house after the 
upcoming general election, with the leader of the party at that time 
likely to become prime minister.
     The current four-year term of the lower house expires in the 
summer of 2013.
     Backed by a wide range of LDP members -- from junior lawmakers 
to veterans such as former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori -- Ishihara, 
the eldest son of Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara, is expected to become 
a principal candidate.
     Ishihara and Tanigaki had met several times last week but had 
failed to unite behind one candidate. On Monday, Tanigaki said he 
will withdraw from the party presidential race.
     So far, former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba and former 
Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura have already formally declared 
their candidacy for the leadership election, for which official 
campaigning will kick off on Friday.
     Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe also plans to announce 
Wednesday that he will enter the race, while acting LDP policy chief 
Yoshimasa Hayashi has continued to make efforts to collect the 20 
signatures necessary to run.
     As for the DPJ presidential election on Sept. 21, four 
candidates, including Noda who is widely expected to be reelected, 
stepped up their efforts to garner the support of party members.
     The three other candidates are former internal affairs minister 
Kazuhiro Haraguchi and former agriculture ministers Michihiko Kano 
and Hirotaka Akamatsu.
     Issues such as Noda's unpopular decision to double the nation's 
5 percent sales tax rate by 2015 and his intention to dissolve the 
lower house "sometime soon" have been in the spotlight in the DPJ 
presidential race.
     Noda has faced criticism from his three rivals for having split 
the party over the tax hike proposal and raising the possibility of 
the DPJ, which swept into office in 2009, losing power in the next 
general election.

How I see things: Seven MPs agreed to join the new national party led by Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto, defecting from their various former parties (including the DPJ and LDP).  Hashimoto formally named the party the Japan Restoration Society.  The two main parties will soon elect leaders ahead of a lower house election that Noda has promised to call "soon".  LDP leader Sadakazu Tanigaki said he will not run for re-election as party leader; former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is contender to succeed him but Nobuteru Ishihara most likely is the frontrunner.  Three current and former ministers (Kazuhiro Haraguchi, Hirotaka Akamatsu and Michihiko Kano) will run to succeed Noda as DPJ leader.  A September 4 voter opinion poll puts Hashimoto at 23.8%, the LDP at 21.7% and the DPJ at 17.4%.  Without a more popular figure at the helm, the Democractic Party of Japan's (DPJ) election prospects remain dim.  Yet with defeat anticipated in any case, party heavyweights will likely demur and let Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda lead the party to disaster, before perhaps running to replace him afterwards.  A right-wing coalition between the conservative main opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the newly formed Japan Restoration Society seems the most likely election outcome at
present. Sunrise Party might also get into this coaltion as well.

A so-called grand coalition seems to me like a likelier outcome than a right-wing one.

It all depends how badly the Democratic Party gets wiped out, doesn't it?

I guess that in an election "soon", in the FPTP vote it will LDP-Komeito first, DPJ second, Hashimoto third.  In the PR vote it will be LDP-Komeito first, Hashimoto second, DPJ third.  I still feel that in the FPTP vote, Hashimoto is more likely to hurt DPJ as some anti-LDP votes that would have gone to DPJ would go to Hashimoto.  Of course no party/block will have a majority.  Hashimoto Party's platform does have some very far fetched ideas which would make it hard for LDP-New Homeito to form an alliance with it but LDP's DNA of power at all costs will overcome this.  BTW, this setup would suit DPJ fine as they will benifit from any anger/disillutionment with this new government when it comes, and it will come.

That's a good point. I guess it depends, in terms of my personal preference, on whether I'd rather see some kind of coherent future for the DPJ or an immediate-future government that at all costs does not include the groups led by Governor Misogyny and the Hashists*.

*band name, btw

Hashimoto may not do as poorly on the FPTP as people expect. For one, his base of support is in the Kansai region, which is not the LDP's most robust region for FPTPers (you know, Tanigaki withstanding).

That being said, I wouldn't mind casting a proportional vote for Hashimoto. There are a handful of local DPJers I like, but I like Hashimoto, although personal experience is probably prejudicing me in this.

Note that I refered to Hashimoto's party, Japan Restoration Party, as Hashimoto Party.  There are two reasons for this.  One, there is no offcial English version of the name of this new party.  Second, it was a sarcastic joke of my as a link to the fact that many Germans back in the mid to late 1920s refered to the NASDP as Hitler Partei.

Duly noted! I think I'm going to continue using 'Governor Misogyny and the Hashists' as a combined shorthand for Sunrise and Japan Restoration, unless I really need to distinguish between them, because it makes them sound like a crappy postmodern jazz band. ;)

It is not even that I am opposed to the Hashimoto's ideas.  Some of them I think are quite good, mostly those about deregulation.  My view is more about how he came to these ideas.  His ideas are mostly self-serving or the lastest political fads.  His ideas on direct election of PM solves nothing and merely makes it easier for him to be PM given his own personal popularity (for now) and his relative weakness in organization is an example of the former. His flip flops on nuclear power is an example of the latter.

One thing I failed to talk about is that 3 members of Your Party defected to Hashimoto Party.  This might be a sign that Your Party might be falling apart.  Oh well.  Your Party I feel have a real vision unlike Hashimoto.  One should also note that most MP defectors to the Hashimoto Party are on the PR list.  This confirms my view that Hashimoto Party is viewed as an outfit that will do will in PR but might lack the nationwide organization to do well in FPTP seats.

If LDP-Komeito and Hashimoto Party comes to power I think that might be the beginning of the end for Hashimoto.  He can on longer play this know-it-all critic and take no responsiblity on what goes wrong.  His party's candidates will mostly be new and unvetted.  Once they are elected there will be all sorts of scandals of a personal and financial nature will come out and the media will be eager to expose them.  He who lives by media might end up dying by media.  In the meantime DPJ will still play a key role in the upper house to block LDP-Komeito and Hashimoto Party and as a result nothing will get done.

Nathan or jaichind, can you explain the misogyny thing for those of us who don't usually follow Japanese politics?

Shintaro Ishihara, 4 term and popular governor of Tokyo once said: "old women who live after they have lost their reproductive function are useless and are committing a sin."
Ishihara Senior used to be in LDP and his son is on the verge of becoming the head of the LDP.  Ishihara Senior also is the godfather behind the radical right wing Sunrise Party.  He created but did not join the Sunrise Pary, but controls it from behind the scenes which fits him fine as he can avioid association with mistakes or gaffes of the party but is de facto head of the party. 

What jaichind mentioned is among the more recent examples (incidentally, when he was confronted about it he doubled down and started talking about old women as some sort of tyrannical elite; I should point out he is in fact married to a presumably relatively old woman and has several grown sons, one of whom is a much more moderate LDP bigwig). Much earlier in his life he was a fairly well-regarded novelist (he moved in some of the same circles as Mishima Yukio if that rings any bells) and the portrayal of women there is, uh, questionable, although not as much as it could be. He also says that the Rape of Nanking is a fiction, but that's less uncommon on the Japanese right than we might think or hope it would be.

He's also said about what you might expect on the subjects of homosexuality and countries other than Japan, doesn't seem to be of the opinion that manga counts as 'speech' (as in 'freedom of') for some reason, and justified destroying the closest satoyama to Tokyo, a decision that I imagine could have been justified in any number of much more reasonable ways, in terms reminiscent of James G. Watt. The phrase 'devil mountain that eats children' was used.

OK... that guy's filed under "batshoot RL troll" in my book.

Speaking of Mishima Yukio, yes, Shintaro Ishihara was very much associated with Mishima Yukio.  Of couse one thing that is interesting about this relationship is that it has become a well known fact that Mishima Yukio is almost certainly gay.   And Ishihara is well known for his anti-homosexual views.  This is another example where he does not seem to square his believes with his associates.  
Some of his extremist views I think also has an element of opportunism.  He is famous for his anti-US and Anti-PRC views (more so anti-PRC.)  In 2005 he advocated boycotting the 2008 Beijing Olympics.  But in 2007-2008 when he was looking to get support for Tokyo to host the 2016 olympics, he toned down his anti-PRC views to the degree that he was invited to the 2008 Beijing Olympics and even praised the 2008 Olympics in terms of the opening ceremony and how it was organized.  Of course once the Tokyo bid fell through he went back to to his more traditional anti-PRC views.  What angers me at a personal level is that in international politics he is anti-PRC based on anti-Communism (plus theories he has that the PRC will invade and take over Japan in 20 years)  and as a result is very much pro-ROC, on paper.  But seems to only favor those ROC politicans that espose Taiwan Indpendence and reject the Chinese identity which exposes the fact his views are really anti-Chinese identity.  And at the same time he hurls insults to the Chinese people overall and Chinese in Japan, even those from Taiwan Province.  I have no problem with anti-Chinese identity but I want him to just come out and say it and not use various invasion theories or anti-communism as a cover.  
As for the Rape of Nanking denial stuff, it is interesting, as a Chinese nationalist I really do not think this is a big deal.  It could be my time in USA has influenced myself with free speech concepts but I feel that if Japan wants it textbooks to avoid or deny these events, it should be free to do so.  It is their call.  In keeping such facts from their own population the only loser here is Japan.  The Chinese committed atrocities just has bad to each other during the KMT-CCP civil wars before and after the Japanese invasion which are often missing from Chinese textbooks on both the Mainland and Taiwan regions.  I personally much rather focused on getting more accurate historical facts in Chinese textbooks about ourselves than harrass the Japanese over the Rape of Nanjing and other Japanese misdeeds.

Oh of course. Ishihara knows his niche and fills it to perfection, and it's kind of an awful niche in my opinion, but I don't think he's as crazy as the sum total of the various crap he's said over the years might indicate. Whether that makes him better or worse is a judgment call, obviously.

Current party standings as far as I understand them:

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES (241 needed for majority)

DPJ+: 246 (245 DPJ plus Speaker)
LDP+: 119 (118 LDP plus Vice-Speaker)
Ozawa Ichiro Appreciation Life/Kizuna: 47 (OIAL 37, Kizuna 9, Independent 1)
New Komeito: 21
JCP: 9
SDP: 6
Governor Misogyny and the Hashists: 5 (Hashists 3, Governor Misogyny 2)
YP: 5
Reform Group of Independents: 4 (Three Independents and a Yokokume Katsuhito)
Tax Cuts Japan/Peace: 4 (Tax Cuts Japan 3, Independent who presumably represents Peace 1)
People's New Party and Group of Independents: 3 (PNP 2, Independent 1)
New Party Daichi--True Democrats: 3
New Party Nippon: 1
Independents who aren't among the groups above: 5

HOUSE OF COUNCILLORS (122 needed for majority)

DPJ+: 88 (87 DPJ plus Speaker)
LDP+: 85 (84 LDP plus Vice-Speaker)
New Komeito: 19
Ozawa Ichiro Appreciation Life: 12
YP: 8
Governor Misogyny and the Hashists: 7 (Hashists 4, Governor Misogyny 3)
JCP: 6
SDP: 4
Green Wind (I have no idea what this is but it sounds superficially cool): 4
PNP: 3
New Renaissance Party: 2
New Party Daichi--True Democrats: 2
Okinawa Social Mass Party (what?): 1
Independent: 1

Something like this, anyway.

I believe Green Wind is a party made up of DPJ and PNP defectors that was created 2 months ago.  The DPJ defectors are as a result of the Noda's push to double consumption tax.
Thinking about this, I think the LDP is better off having the Lower House election next year and the DPJ is better off having the Lower House election this year, which is opposite of what members of each party has indicated. 
The reasoning is the following:  It is very easy to create a negative coalition in the upper house but hard to create a positive coalition in support of a government.  In case of a LDP+New Komeito+Hashimoto Pary government, in the upper house we would LDP+New Komeito+Hashimoto Pary=108.  Throw in Sunrise Party and it would be 111 which would be 11 seats away from a majority.  LDP has always claimed that they can get defectors from other parties to join to form a majority in the upper house to avoid a deadlocked government if they come to power.  But what will be incentives for opposition party members to do this?  It would be to improve their election prospects in the 2013 upper house elections.   But if the LDP+New Komeito plus Hashimoto Party wins a majority as expected in a lower house 2012 election, the 2013 upper house elections is still many months away, plenty of time for this new govnerment to lose the good will it won in the 2012 election.  Knowing this there will be little incentive for upper house opposition MPs to join this block.  If the lower house election takes place in 2013, perhaps at the same time as upper house election, the LDP+New Komeito would do well in both and get the majority it needs with the Hashimoto Party in both chambers. 
So net effect of this, it seems to me, is that LDP should want election as late as possible and DPJ as early as possible.

People tend to overestimate well...how important Shintaro Ishihara is. He makes a lot of nasty statements but he actually does very little governing. He's more of a public celebrity than an actual politician - since its Inose Naoki who basically does all the actual governing that Ishihara's position would suggest one would do.

I see. Well, that takes away from my 'he must be a competent administrator or something' theory for why the people of Tokyo keep electing him.

(I know the actual reasons, of course, it's just that a lot of them are a bit painful to contemplate for too long.)

It's kind of hilarious that Ishihara, Hashimoto, and Ozawa all have their own terrible personality cult parties.

That is quite interesting.  I did not know that.  I always had a certain level of respect for Ishihara Senior for his ablity to govern Tokyo.  I always thought that his reelections were mostly based on his technical compotence.  I always thought of him as a Narenda Modi (CM of Indian state of Gujarat) who is a horrible record on communal harmony but has a done a good job as a technical adaministrator and responsible for all sorts of progress in Gujuarat, communal riots notwithstanding.

Of the three I still like Ozawa the most.  I think he has good vision and he is very good at recruiting and building up good politicans that can win elections. 

This is what I thought too. Or, at least, what I wanted to think.

Looking at all the serious LDP candidates for LDP leadership,  Ishihara junior is the most moderate of all of them, despite his father's more radical views.  This is funny but one can actually come up with the following campaign solgan and be true:

"For a more moderate foreign policy, vote  Ishihara"

Wow.  Well, I kind of expected something like this.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Japan’s Noda Hints at Reviewing Pledge for Elections, Asahi Says

     Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko
Noda hinted at reviewing a pledge made to the main opposition
party to dissolve parliament and hold elections “soon,” Asahi
says, citing remarks made by Noda yday on a TBS TV program.
• Noda says conditions have changed; pledge to hold vote was made during talks for opposition parties to stand down on threat of no-confidence and censure motions: Asahi
• Noda suggests holding talks with two main opposition parties again after vote to elect leaders of Noda’s Democratic Party and main opposition Liberal Democratic Party: Asahi
• NOTE: Opposition-dominated upper house passed censure motion against Noda last month

Well, not delegating important tasks to terrible incompetent people is a sometimes rare skill in of itself. Very unfortunately.

The DPJ's reaction to the Senkaku incident baffles me. Consider the upcoming elections and the assets both powers have on the ground, there is very little downside to taking the most hawkish position imaginable. Japan clearly holds most of the cards in this dispute. And worst comes to worst, there's a rally around the flag effect. It's probably old JSPer's holding the DPJ back.


Ozawa has a vision? Is this same Ozawa we're talking about here? The same Ozawa that has jumped from hard-right to hard-left and then to whatever the hell he's doing now.

That being said, if the election were held today, I think I'd be backing Hashimoto. A LDP-Komeito-Hashimoto coalition seems like the possible outcome to me now. I have long since lost faith in the DPJ to actually function no matter the best intentions of some - the Senkaku affair only be one incident in a long string, and I'm not too sure if handing back to the LDP total power would be a good idea And strangely enough, the more I read about Hashimoto, the more I like him.

Yeah.  I hear you.  I guess when I said I felt Ozawa has good vision I was more thinking about his vision of a 2 party system that alternate in power as a route to better policy. 

As for DiaoYuTai/Senkaku incident, I might be overestimating the PRC, but I feel that LDP or DPJ, once in power will have a fairly narrow policy choice on this.  PRC's share of Japanese exports has doubled in the last ten years to 20% with the USA buying 15%.  In a real conflict neither economy benifits but the damage to Japan will be greater.  The PRC has more bargaining chips with Japan than ever before.  I feel that a more dovish policy approach is the only choice left to Japan for the party in power.

Of course I feel the PRC response to this crisis is quite stupid as well.  Since in DiaoYuTai is part of Yilan County of Taiwan Province, the PRC should really let the ROC represent Chinese interests on this with silent support from PRC.

See

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T120918002929.htm

On PR list the current polling is LDP 31, Hashimoto Party 16, and DPJ 14. If we assume that New Komeito itself should be good for 10% on the PR vote, New Komeito voters do vote for LDP in the FPTP seat, and this poll is indicative of how the FPTP votes would go, then I pretty much feel that LDP-New Komeito will capture a majority on its own given the even split between Hashimoto and DPJ of the anti-LDP vote.

Fun fact: I know this guy who was almost called Yukio by his parents as a nod to Mishima. The days of Yugi-oh would have been dark ones, he admits.

More importantly, is it very insensitive to just write Yukio Mishima?

See, I recognize that Mishima is a great author, but he's...not...someone I would name someone after...


I don't think so. For people in the West who aren't Asian studies academics I've always had the perception that Japanese name order (unlike, for instance, Chinese) is more a stylistic matter than anything else.

Noda has won reelection as party leader. (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/22/world/asia/yoshihiko-noda-wins-leadership-vote-in-japan.html?_r=0) Now on to the LDP election--this week, right?

It's also a pen name. And uh, naming someone after a pen name is just really going into uncharted, weird waters.

Also, I didn't get the yukio/yugioh joke at first because "huh? the first syllables are the same and the second is only hardened, but there's four in yugioh...wait a second herree"

An apparently quite ill Machimura Nobutaka is determined to stay in the offing for LDP leader. (http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T120923002925.htm) I don't know much about Machimura at all, but I'd consider this admirable.

Wow.  Abe wins LDP contest.  First time in 40 years LDP race has gone into a second round and first time in over 50 years the winner of the first round lost.  Of course this is also the first time a LDP chief is able to come back and win the post after leaving the post.  Not many people had expected this.  What is LDP up to ?  Have they not forgotten the 2007 election disaster and then the Abe on again off again resigniation fiasco ?  They guy had a mental breakdown in office back in 2007.  After the lower house election, I think a LDP-DPJ grand coalation is out with Abe in charge.

I do not believe this was the outcome that many people actually expected. I already like this leadership election. It opens the possibility of a LDP-Hashimoto coalition after the election. Because not only is Abe not particularly popular (hurting the chances of gaining an absolute LDP/NKP majority) he'd probably be more likely to be open to such a coalition.

Though I never thought of a LDP/NKP majority as being terribly likely, because the best-case LDP scenario would be to sweep the FPTP seats, but I don't see that happening in Kansai.

I am not particularly enamored with the man myself, but of the candidates, I am probably the most sympathetic towards his views on the recent territorial issues.

Lastest Kyodo Poll

LDP                        39.4
DPJ                        12.3
Hashimoto Party       10.7

This level of LDP support will obviously fall as the Aso bounce fades.  But if
DPJ and Hashimoto Party support stays even, it will be a LDP landslide when
the election comes.

39.4% is insane. Koizumi didn't even break 39%.

Well, the Yomiuri tracker (http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/feature/20080116-907457/news/20121002-OYT1T01216.htm) is interesting.

LDP: 31 ---> 36
DPJ: 14 ---> 18
JRP: 16 ---> 13

So yeah, I think we can be certain that the "chikai mirai" will not come about very soon.

Oh. I just checked that Kyodo poll. It was 30.4%, not 39.4%. That makes a lot more sense.

Oops.. Thanks for correcting me
On a seperate note I think DPJ had another defection to YP.  DPJ majority down to 7 seats in the lower house.  There is also the issue of redistricting before an election can go forward due to supreme court ruling and the fact that the bill to issue more debt is outstanding. 

We were talking up YP as potentially set to do quite well a while back; do you guys think that's still the case?

Words cannot describe how worthless I find much polling. There seems to be an assumption that cabinet support rate determines how many votes one get and then another assumption that polls where over half the voting population are undecided are somehow useful. Argh.

Japan to hold general election Dec. 16

TOKYO, Nov. 14 Kyodo
Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda was set Wednesday to dissolve the lower house for a general election on Dec. 16, a move opinion polls indicate could end his ruling Democratic Party of Japan's three-year hold on power.
Noda made the decision despite simmering opposition within his party as the main opposition Liberal Democratic Party declared Wednesday it would cooperate with conditions Noda set for a general election.
"I think I could dissolve the lower house Friday" if LDP President Shinzo Abe makes promises on cutting the number of
lawmakers in the 480-seat lower house, Noda said during a one-on-one debate with Abe in the chamber.
It was rare for a prime minister to specify the timing of a lower house dissolution in a parliamentary session.
Later Wednesday Abe said in a speech, "We'll fully cooperate
with the prime minister in the proposal to dissolve the lower house Friday."
"We'll do our utmost to try to enact legislation aimed at slashing the number of seats (in the lower house) during next year's ordinary parliamentary session," Abe said.
LDP Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba also told reporters the LDP decided to "cooperate" and "sincerely accept" Noda's proposal on dissolving the lower house.
Noda's decision comes as his government has secured passage of key bills, including a debt-financing bill for the current fiscal
year through March, with cooperation from the LDP and its ally the
New Komeito party.
The 55-year-old premier appears to have judged that he has to fulfill a promise he made to major opposition party leaders in August that he would go to the people "sometime soon" in exchange for their support in passing a bill to double the 5 percent sales tax by 2015. Shrugging off opposition within the ruling party, Noda decided
to call a general election, which must be held by next summer.
As part of electoral system reform, Noda's DPJ envisages cutting the number of lower house seats in single-seat constituencies by five to 295 and slashing the number in proportional representation blocks by 40 to 140.
Noda has vowed to achieve the electoral reform in exchange for imposing an additional burden on the public as his government decided to double the 5 percent sales tax rate by 2015.
The country's top court last year judged that the disparity in the weight of votes between the least and most populous electoral districts for the lower house is so great as to be unconstitutional. Noda's remarks came after the LDP and its ally the New Komeito party agreed earlier Wednesday to submit a no-confidence motion to
the lower house against Noda's Cabinet if he does not dissolve the chamber by the end of this year, lawmakers said.
Under the Constitution, if the lower house passes a
no-confidence motion, the Cabinet has to resign en masse unless the chamber is dissolved within 10 days.
Many DPJ lawmakers, meanwhile, do not want an early election as recent polls show the DPJ, which in 2009 ended over 50 years of
almost continuous rule by the LDP, could lose power in the next election.
According to an opinion poll by Kyodo News earlier this month, the LDP secured 27.7 percent support, higher than 12.1 percent of the DPJ.
Recent polls show that the DPJ, which swept to power in 2009, ending more than 50 years of almost uninterrupted LDP rule, could suffer a crushing defeat in the next election.
As Noda pushed through his prized policy goal of the consumption tax hike, many lawmakers, such as former party president Ichiro
Ozawa, have left the DPJ, placing the party at risk of losing its majority in the more powerful lower house.
Ozawa, who now heads the opposition People's Life First party,
is credited with orchestrating the DPJ's election victory, supporting then president Yukio Hatoyama, the first prime minister under the DPJ-led government.
Hatoyama stepped down as premier in June 2010, after less than nine months in the post, amid criticism over his broken campaign promise to move the U.S. Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station outside Okinawa Prefecture.
Naoto Kan, Hatoyama's successor, was forced to resign in August last year as criticism grew for his lack of leadership following the devastating March 2011 earthquake-tsunami disaster and the ensuing nuclear crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant.
Noda, who took office in September last year, succeeding Kan, is expected to campaign in the lower house election with the promise of Japan's participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade talks, which the LDP opposes.
The LDP urged Noda to dissolve the lower house by the end of
this year amid speculation the party could emerge as the largest
force in the chamber after the next general election.

Turkeys voting for Xmas? Though I'm quite disappointed that the LDP opposes TPP, if not surprised because they're pandering to Big Ag.

NHK World showed a poll that said DPJ 12%, LDP 25%, Another Party 45%. Has there ever been an election where "Another Party" has won the most seats?

Not really (unless you count that weird Eight-Party Alliance period in the nineties, which I don't), but Japanese polling is generally terrible. The upshot is that the DPJ's going down, and other than Abe's endemic saber-rattling I don't have as much of a problem with this as I would have expected to even a few months ago, despite find Noda personally sympathetic.

Taken the liberty of changing the thread title.

Tokyo Ex-governor Joins New Conservative Party
By MARI YAMAGUCHI
Tokyo (AP) -- Outspoken leaders from Japan's two biggest cities formed a national political party Saturday, seeking to become "a third force" to lure undecided voters and challenge the country's two biggest parties.
Nationalist Shintaro Ishihara, who resigned as Tokyo governor to create his own party this week, said he is scrapping his four-day-old group to join the Japan Restoration Party formed in September by the young and brash mayor of Osaka, Toru Hashimoto.
The announcement comes the day after Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda dissolved the lower house of parliament, paving the way elections next month. His ruling party is expected to give way to a weak coalition government divided over how to tackle Japan's myriad problems. The biggest problems are getting a stagnant economy going again and reconstruction after the crippling March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.
Elections are set for Dec. 16, with official campaigning starting Dec. 4. If Noda's centrist party loses, the economically sputtering country will get its seventh prime minister in six and a half years.
Japan is going through a political transition with a merry- go-round of prime ministers and the mushrooming fringe parties to challenge the long-dominant Liberal Democrats' return.
"This country is going to fall apart if we don't act now," Ishihara told Saturday's party convention held in Osaka, announcing the merger of his party and Hashimoto's. "I've decided to ignore small differences to join hands on common ground. This will be my last service for the country." Apparently, Ishihara made concessions to Hashimoto's policy supporting phase-out of nuclear energy and participating in the U.S.-led trans-Pacific trade block. The timing of the election could pre-empt moves by more conservative challengers to build enough electoral support.
Ishihara, 80, now heads the Japan Restoration Party, replacing Hashimoto, who now serves No. 2 post.  Hashimoto, 43, has said he will remain mayor of Japan's second-largest city and not run in the election.  On Saturday, he announced backing 47 candidates to run in the polls.
"We'll claw our way through the election battle — not just to win seats, but to change the root of this country," Hashimoto told a televised party convention. "We will change all forces that try to defend the status quo."
The DPJ, in power for three years, has grown unpopular largely because of its handling of the Fukushima nuclear crisis and its plans to double the sales tax.
Noda's most likely successor is LDP head and former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. He resigned as Japan's leader in 2007 after a year in office due to stomach ailment.
Polls indicate that the conservative, business-friendly LDP will win the most seats in the 480-seat lower house but will fall far short of a majority. That would force it to cobble together a coalition of parties with differing policies and priorities. Many of the newly formed small groups are formed by defectors of Noda's party, and Japan now has at least 15 political parties, half of them with only several members. Although DPJ's rise to power was initially seen as a chance to have stable British-style two-party system in Japan, their troubled rule and infighting have prompted divisions and defections, not necessarily based on policies.
"Now there is no division of conservative, liberal or centrist. There is no telling which two are the main parties," said political commentator Shigetada Kishida on a TV talk show Saturday. "We are now in the process of figuring out which parties should take charge of Japan as an alternative." Political leaders took to the streets Saturday to make their election appeals to voters.
Noda, who visited schools in Tokyo, called the party merger "no-principle coalition" that neglected policies.
"We have mountains of problems to tackle — the economy, energy issues, diplomacy and political reforms.  Do we want to push them forward or backward?  That's what the elections are all about and I will convince voters who should be in charge," Noda told reporters.
In Kumamoto, southern Japan, Abe accused Noda's party of failing to achieve results. "Their existence itself is political vacuum. We should get rid of them, or the vacuum only continues."
Ishihara said his party aims to be "a second force" not third, to be close enough to take power.
Ishihara resigned as Tokyo governor and created the Sunrise Party with several ultra-conservative national lawmakers Tuesday. As governor, Ishihara helped instigate the territorial spat with China by saying Tokyo would buy and develop the disputed East China Sea islands controlled by Japan but claimed by Beijing. The central government bought the islands, apparently to thwart Ishihara's more inflammatory plans, but failing to calm China's anger.

Honestly, I'd almost be tempted to vote LDP at this point if they had a more peaceable leader.

Everyone seems to think that LDP-New Komeito will win but not capture a majority.  I am pretty sure they will.

Are they underestimating the "virtues" of FPTP ?

I think so.  Bear in mind, under the 1947-1933 election system in Japan, there is no way the LDP/New Komeito would capture a majority in the upcoming election.  But in a system where 300 of 480 are FPTP and the split of the anti-LDP votes between DPJ, Ozawa Party, JRP and Your Party, the LDP/New Komeito will do very well in FPTP.  What makes it extra powerful is the fact the LDP personal vote of its candidates that have good grassroots organization plus the discplined New Komeito vote (around 8% or so) that is almost all transftered to the LDP candidate.  One can see how in lots of districtes the LDP/New Komneito candidate will capture 35% of the vote and win.

Yeah, I'm expecting an LDP/New Komeito majority, albeit a narrow one.

Asahi Shimbun had two polls recently.  One 11/16 and one 11/18

The 11/16 had
LDP   23
DPJ   16
JRP     6
NKP    3

and 11/18 had
LDP   23
DPJ   15
JRP   16
NKP    4

If I were LDP I will be much happier with 11/18 poll.  LDP-NKP are at 27 and DPJ and JRP split evenly at 15 and 16.  The chances of anti-LDP tactical voting goes down with a virtual tie between DPJ and JRP as opposed to the 11/16 poll where anti-LDP tactical voting should help DPJ to defeat LDP. 

LDP-NKP got around 40% in FPTP in 2009 when they were crushed in a landslide.  This time, if the polls are right,  I figure they are good for 38% or so with DPJ and JRP in the low to mid 20% and remaining votes split between Ozawa's outfit, JCP, YP and various independents (mostly pro-LDP).  Without anti-LDP tactical voting the LDP-NKP should cruse to a big win in the FPTP seats.

If JRP gets second place, do people start freaking out?

Are the polls really that meaningful when half of those polled are undecided.

Another "third force" block forms.  This can only be good news for LDP.

The governor of Shiga Prefecture said Tuesday she will establish a new political party with the aim of becoming a major "third force" around a week before the start of official campaigning for the Dec.16 general election.

Yukiko Kada, 62, said at a press conference that she plans to team up with legislators and others who support her policies, including phasing out nuclear power, and to field candidates in the upcoming House of Representatives election.

Kada said it is "possible" for her to work together with former Democratic Party of Japan leader Ichiro Ozawa, who currently heads the People's Life First party, which is against nuclear energy. Her remarks suggest that the new party, named Nippon Mirai no To (Japan Future Party), could become another third force in rivalry

JRP begin second place is less revelent since it will only run 141 candidates out of 300 districts so this level of support will not translate into a lot of seats.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Japan’s LDP Leads in Latest Nikkei Public Opinion Poll

(Bloomberg) -- Opposition Liberal Democratic Party leads with 23%, followed by Japan Restoration Party at 15% and current governing Democratic Party of Japan with 13%, Nikkei reports.
LDP down 2pts from Nov. 16-18 Nikkei poll
 Japan Restoration Party overtakes governing DPJ after merger with party of Shintaro Ishihara
 Poll conducted Nov. 26-28 surveyed 1,406 households with responses from 865 voters
 

Ozawa Ichiro Appreciation Life appears to have suborned itself into Governor Kada's party for now, which surprises me a little.

Latest polls seems to show a wipeout for DPJ.  The Nihon Keizai Shimbun, based upon its own numbers, predicts the DPJ on a course to winning only aroung 80 seats while the Mainichi Shimbun, looking at the data from Kyodo, predicts the DPJ will win only around 70 seats.  Main reason as I stated before is that the anti-LDP vote will be split between many parties as opposed to being concentrated on DPJ in 2009.  I think it is now within the relem of possibility that LDP-NKP will capture a 2/3 majority of 320 seats plus.

So the LDP gets a small majority?

NKP should get around 32 seats.  LDP will most likely get a majority on its own and even come close to matching its 2005 result of 296 seats in which case LDP+NKP will get a 2/3 majority or come very close to it.  LDP will not get the 77 PR block vote seats like in 2005 but will make it up in the FPTP seats.  There is a bold assumption I am making in my equally bold prediction.  That the undecided which is often up to 50% of the voters will either not vote or split among the various non LDP-NKP parties.

This poll has LDP at 295 and NKP at 30.  Similar to my prediction that NKP would be 31 and that with LDP will be close to and even beyond 2/3 majority at 320.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LDP likely to win nearly 300 seats in general election
TOKYO, Dec. 13 Kyodo
The Liberal Democratic Party led by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is continuing its strong run heading into Sunday's lower house general election and is on course to win close to 300 seats in the 480-seat chamber, a Kyodo News survey showed Wednesday.
The main opposition and its ally the New Komeito party could together secure more than 300 seats in the House of Representatives, according to the telephone survey conducted over two days through Wednesday covering around 63,200 eligible voters in 150 selected single-seat constituencies out of 300.
The projections for the remaining 150 constituencies were made based on additional information gathered by Kyodo.
The ruling Democratic Party of Japan, which swept to power in the previous lower house election in 2009 and put an end to the LDP's almost continuous rule for more than 50 years, is expected to fall far behind the LDP with only around 60 seats, compared with the current strength of 230 seats, the survey showed.
The Japan Restoration Party, one of the so-called third forces challenging the DPJ and the LDP, is expected to get less than 50 seats, according to the survey.
The party was founded by outspoken Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto and is currently led by former Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara, known for his hawkish diplomatic stance.
In the poll, however, 43.3 percent of the respondents said they had not yet decided on who to vote for in the single-seat constituency contests and 40.4 percent said they remained undecided
on which party to vote for in the proportional representation regional blocks, where 180 seats will be determined.
If the LDP wins as many seats as the poll suggests, Abe would return as Japan's next premier, ousting Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda who heads the DPJ.
Among other third-force parties, the newly formed Tomorrow Party of Japan led by Shiga Gov. Yukiko Kada, which is committed to phasing out atomic power plants within 10 years following the 2011 crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, is seen winning around 15 seats and Your Party a little over 10 seats, the survey showed.
Abe's party could win a total of around 295 seats or more in the single-seat electoral districts and under the proportional representation system, while its ally New Komeito is likely to win close to 30 seats, according to the survey.
The Japanese Communist Party may fail to retain its preelection strength of nine seats. The Social Democratic Party may only win one or two seats, the survey said.

So Abe gets a bigger mandate than Koizumi ever did. Ugh.

I do not like this election.

Haven't been following this at all, but I've just read an article which makes out Abe to be some kind've Japanese Jean-Marie Le Pen. This correct or just shoddy journalism?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/japan/9732819/Japans-opposition-LDP-on-course-for-victory-in-general-election.html

He's a nationalist, not a far-right neo-fascist. And positively dovish compared to the JRP whackos.

Yeah. I'm not at all fond of Abe's views but the likely outcome isn't as bad as it could be.

Having said that, though,

I thought Ishihara was the one people usually compared to Le Pen?

Yes, and the comparison's entirely justified there.

I was thinking what the PRC was up to when they flew a surveillance plane over the disputed islands which only helps the Hawks cause in the upcoming election tomorrow.  From a game theory point of view I think it makes sense.  What Beijing is counting on is that the basic economic balance and interests on both sides will make for a mending of releationship between PRC and Japan and the current surge toward the nationalist jingoism in Japan is mostly an election ploy.  If so then the worst case scenerio for the PRC is a Japanese middle of the road government in Japan with declining political clout and a powerful hawkish opposition pushing it into taking anti-PRC moves to avoid losing more ground.  A much better situation is a powerful and politically invulernable hawkish Japanese government which does not need to worry about its base and think more about economic costs of a poor relationship with PRC.

With this in mind this flight of a plane from the PRC makes a lot of sense as it would push the hawkish vote toward LDP-NKP helping them get to a 2/3 majority without needing the even more hawkish Ishihara and his JRP.  What the PRC wants is the piviot party being the NKP and not JRP.  One thing that is not spoken is that NKP is quite dovish when it comes to relationship with PRC but it is keeping that view quite during this election where the PRC is quite unpopular in Japan.  The LDP-NKP strategy should be to capture a 2/3 majority by lumping various voting blocks togeather and sweep the 300 FPTP seats.  The blocks are the LDP personal vote of various LDP candidate fiefdoms, the LDP nationalist vote, LDP rural vote, and NKP vote (which should be good for 8-10%) and get around 38-40% of the vote assuming the pro-DPJ reform vote does not turn out given their disappointment over the last 3 years in a low turnout election.  This latest act by PRC will further consolidate the LDP nationalist vote and I assume that was the intention of PRC in doing this.

When do polls close? Do we know yet of a good site to get results for those of us who don't speak Japanese (or perhaps one in Japanese with obvious color-coding)?

Follow-up question - how common are these: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MCYdViBZF8

There is a reason for this.  In Japan, individual politicians are not allowed to buy any time whatsoever for media, for TV advertising. They're not allowed to buy space in newspapers or time on the radio.  Every candidate for public office is given a certain amount of free time for his TV advertising, or radio advertising, or newspaper advertisements, but they are very restrictive in terms of what kinds of advertising he can engage in down to restrictions on whether the politician is allowed to sit or stand, use props, and other things.  The reasons for these restrictions in the Japanese election law supposedly go back to a desire to make elections fair — not to allow people who have more money to have more advantages than candidates who don't have money, to give every candidate exactly the same opportunities that every other candidate has.  Of course this does not really work becuase the candidate often have support groups which he builds up with money and delivers the votes.  So the only thing they personally can do is to run around in a van blasting out noises the what you see in Youtube below.  Sometimes it just yells out the candidates name over and over again, like "Tanaka, Tanaka, Tanaka ...."

None I know of.  http://www.jiji.com/jc/election?g=2012syuin&l=top is very good but that is in Japanese.  Being that I am Chinese I can read about 90% of that page when it comes to the results and I can figure out the rest.  I guess http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/ is a one place you can look for results in English but it will run behind real time.  I believe polls close 7pm which would be 7am EST which is when I plan to wake up and watch results online.

Thanks!

Turnout was apparently 7 percentage points lower at 2 PM than it was at that time in 2009. Early vote turnout was also down (I think they said 12 million cast this time versus 13 million in 2009).

Exit Polls is showing a LDP majority

LDP: 275~310 seats
NKP: 27~35 seats
DPJ: 55~77 seats
Japan Restoration: 40~61 seats
Tomorrow : 6~15 seats
Communist: 6~10 seats
Your:11~24 seats
Social Democrat:1~4 seats
People's new party: 0~1 seat
New Party DAICHI: 1~2 seats
Independents: 2~5 seats

Remember there are only 480 seats in the Diet... It's rare for someone to get a majority, IIRC.

With 133 FPTP seats counted projected it is

LDP            110
NKP               6
DPJ               5
Future Party   1
JRP                2
Your Party      3
Independent   1

Wow.  What a wipeout.  LDP on its own might get 2/3 majority.

With 138 FPTP seats counted projected it is

LDP            117
NKP               7
DPJ               6
Future Party   1
JRP                2
Your Party      3
SDP               1
Independent   1

Only ray of hope for DPJ is that most of these results are from the most rural areas which are LDP fiefdoms.  No results for urban area like Tokyo where DPJ tends to be stronger.  I suspect DPJ will get wiped out in places like Tokyo as well.

actually NHK has more aggressive results 

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/

They have

LDP            217
NKP             24
DPJ              33
Future Party   4
JRP              34
Your Party    11
SDP               1
NP-Daichi       1
Communist     4
Independent   2

So in addition to DPJ, Ozawa's Future Party also got wiped out.  So united they stand (DPJ and Ozawa) and divided they fall.

Now 244 for the LDP.

Ah.  I see the difference between
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/ and jiji

All NHK does is to project the PR seats based on very limited returns so far.  I suspect those numbers will jump around a lot as vote countes come in.   

God help us.

LDP/NKP at 257 now.

JRP seems to sweeping Osaka.

They have

LDP            234
NKP             24
DPJ              36
Future Party   5
JRP              35
Your Party    11
SDP               1
NP-Daichi       1
Communist     4
Independent   2

DPJ inches ahead of JRP

LDP-NKP sweeping all regions with respect to Osaka where JRP seems to be winning most of the seats.  LDP-NKP seems to be sweeping Hokkaido as well which really speaks to how badly DPJ is doing.  Even in 2005 landslide DPJ did well in Hokkaido.

Looking at places left to report I really do not see how DPJ gets over 60 seats.  This means 2/3 majority for sure for LDP-NKP.

LDP has gone over a majority on its own.

Looking at the PR vote coming in so far for areas that have significant votes tells how the LDP-NKP cruised their way to victory.  It is mostly the same way I have indicated before will take place.  Take the PR region of 東北 or Northeast.  The PR vote with 19% of the results in are

LDP           29.1%
DPJ            20.0%
JRP            14.0%
NKP             9.3%
Future         9.0%
Your Party   6.7%
Communist  6.5%
SDP              3.4%

Note that LDP+NKP has 38.4% and if replicated across the in the same region in the FPTP votes will pretty much win them most of the seats since DPJ and JRP strength are evenly split between the two.

LDP+NKP has 275 out of 377 projected so far.  That is 72% of the seats. 

urgh

So a majority much inflated by the voting system, then?

Exactly.  If this election is run under the 1947-1993 election system I am not even sure LDP will get a majority let alone this 2/3 majority.

Just as an example, based on current trends I suspect LDP+NKP will get around 40%-45% of the PR vote.  In 1979 election under the old system, LDP got 44.6% of the vote but failed to get a majority by only taking 248 out of 511 seats.

LDP            259
NKP             26
DPJ              39
PNP                1 (DPJ ally)
Future Party   5
JRP              38
Your Party    11
SDP               1
NP-Daichi       1
Communist     4
Independent   4

Neck to neck between DPJ and JRP on who will take second place.

Are the seats left to call (90 if my math's right) PR or FPTP?

About 30 PR and 60 FPTP.  Note that PR votes are coming in very slow so it is hard to call the rest of them until a lot of more votes come in.

LDP is up to 212 wins and NKP 8 wins in FPTP with a lot more not projected yet.  In the 2005 Koizumi landslide LDP won 219 and NKP 8.  LDP is on course to surpass the Koizumi landslude of 2005.  Note that LDP+NKP got 51.5% of the PR vote in 2005.  Very little chance of LDP+NKP getting that.  They will end up in the low 40s.  So bigger win for LDP+NKP than 2005 with a lot less votes.  And it is a low turnout election on top of that.  I am certain those that did not turn out are demoralized floating DPJ voters.

Noda resigns as head of DPJ. 

The breakup of New Party Daichi and DPJ doomed DPJ in Hokkaido.  If they kept that alliance they could have stopped LDP+NKP there.  Instead it is a complete LDP+NKP sweep there.

In Osaka it is JRP 11 vs LDP+NKP 7 with 1 still not in.  11 out of 13 FPTP seats JRP won so far is in Osaka, as expected.

In 2005 LDP landslide LDP+NKP got 51.5% of PR vote and 2009 DPJ landslide LDP+NKP got 38.2% of the PR vote.  This time LDP+NKP will get around 42%-43% of the vote (my educated guess.)  Funny how from a vote share point of view this election is closer to the 2009 election but the results exceeds even 2005.  Split of the LDP vote is the story here.

Voter turnout in Sunday's House of Representatives election in Japan is estimated at 59.52 percent, below the record low of 59.65 percent in the 1996 election, according to a Kyodo News tally.

Osaka ends up JRP 12 LDP-NKP 7
Aichi is a dramatic turnaround.  In 2009 it was DPJ 15 LDP-NKP 0.  It is now LDP-NKP 12 DPJ 2 and 1 outstanding. 
Most of oustanding seats are in Tokyo where 6 are still out.  It is LDP-NKP 18 DPJ 1 and 6 outstanding.  Back in 2009 it was DPJ 21 LDP-NKP 4.
 

Does the NHK ticker count LDP/NKP together or separately? Cause right now they don't have 2/3 if grouped together. I assume light grey is miscellaneous.

Grey is not counted.  By the time it is all counted LDP-NKP should have more than 320 seats. 

Another thing that is interesting is that it looks like JRP would capture more PR votes than DPJ.  If that is the case then this could pose a threat to the existance of the DPJ, much more so than in 2005.  On the other hand I can see JRP falling apart very soon now that its goal of being a critical swing block has failed in this election.

Only 3 seats in Tokyo left, and 15 PR seats still not determined.  Tokyo PR count is also very slow.  The count in the PR section is slowing turning against LDP+NKP.   I figure they would get 42% vs 43% now.  LDP+NKP has 317 out of 462 seats determined.   I figure they will have about 325 or so when this is done.  Not as a massive victory as it seems before in the count but pretty much rivals the Koizumi landslide of 2005 with a less votes.  Pretty impressive. Of course in 2006 Abe took over the LDP+NKP majority of a similar size and we know what happen after that.

Six seats left to determine according to NHK. LDP+NKP is at 323, DPJ at 56, Ex-Governor Misogyny and the Hashists at 52. Ozawa Ichiro Appreciation Life/Governor Kada's Bizarre Adventure is at 8 seats, which I'm of two minds about because Ozawa is awful but Kada seems pretty decent as far as these people go.

So what is the likely result of this on the Japanse cente-left? Any mergers or alliances likely to occur?

Look at the PR results as they come in I am thinking that LDP-NKP will be around 40% maybe even less. Wow, we have a system where 40% of the vote gets you a 2/3 of the seats even though almost 40% of the seats are determined by PR.  This is amazing.  Of course, one thing is for sure, the LDP-NKP in 2012 on the PR list got LESS votes then it did in 2009 when it was destroyed in a landslide. 

So maybe FPTP is not the worst thing in the world. Ugh.

Looking at what we know about LDP-NKP PR vote
and comparing to 2009

                           2009              2012
Hokkaidō             37.2                37.4
Tōhoku                37.6                37.8
Northern Kantō   37.2                40.8
Southern Kantō   36.0                37.0
Tōkyō                   35.9                35.0
Hokuriku-Shin      36.9                40.1
Tōkai                    36.8               38.5
Kinki                     36.2               36.6
Chūgoku              45.4                48.6
Shikoku                45.0                45.7
Kyūshū                 44.4                45.6
----------------------------------------------------------
                            38.5                 ?

There seems to be a swing of 1% to 2% to LDP-NKP so LDP-NKP will end up with around 40%.   But nothing to write home about.  Of course one reads all these articles about people switching to vote for LDP-NKP but I just do no see it from data above.  It seems more about DPJ voters not showing up and what did show up splintered between DPJ, JRP, YP, Future Party, and SDP.  Also what is funny is in the place where turnout is higher, Tokyo, LDP-NKP actually lost ground.

Another winner in addition to LDP-NKP seems to YP (Your Party) which went from 5 in 2009 to 18 in 2012.  It seems it got around 8-9% of the PR vote versus 4.27% back in 2009. 

Based on personal tabulation of numbers in PR list I get

LDP        27.63%
NKP        11.83%  -> LDP+NKP 39.46%
JRP         20.83%
DPJ         16.00%
PNP          0.12% -> DPJ+PNP  16.12%
YP             8.72%
JCP           6.13%
Future      5.69%
SDP          2.36%
Daichi       0.58%
HRP          0.36%
NRP          0.22%

So LDP+NKP could not even cross 40%.  This is the worst showing by LDP+NKP in the PR vote since the 1993 system was established except for 2009.  

From a DPJ point of view, there is not time to lose.  They have to hope that the new LDP-NKP stumbles and the JRP starts falling apart.  Even if that were to take place the only way DPJ can take advantage of this is if it forms an alliance with itself, SDP and Future Party into a broad center-left block.  Only then can it take advantage of problems in LDP-NKP and JPR in the 2013 upper house elections.  Or else JRP might take the position of the main opposition party and DPJ will turn into another SDP. 

If that does happen (and this is such a horrifically huge defeat that you have to start to wonder whether the DPJ can properly survive it) where would large sections of what's left of the DPJ vote head? There's always been a centre left minority vote in postwar Japan, after all. Another new party?

TV Tokyo asked 100 political reporters who the most effective politicians were and they came up with that list. Noda was the favorite by a mile, while Kan managed to finish in a tie for fifth. Abe, the prospective prime minister, clocked in at fifteenth, a fact that came out in a sidebar. The reporters respect politicians who prioritize making policy over getting reelected and ideals over expediency, policy.

Final LDP+NKP seat count is 325 (68% of seats); DPJ+PNP are at 58 and JRP at 54. 43 for the others and the independents.

How long will it take for them to tabulate the FPTP PV? Unless that's already been done.

Of the 5 independents, 4 are pro-LDP and 1 is pro-DPJ.  One of them is Kunio Hatoyama, brother of the former DPJ PM and co-founder of DPJ.  Kunio has since rejoined LDP after founding the DPJ years ago and broke with the LDP again in 2010.  He ran in his district without an opposing LDP candidate and was the de facto LDP candidate.

I assume in a day or two.  They did not tabulate the PR vote either.  I merely downloaded the data and tabulated myself for the PR vote.

Poor DPJ.

Yen/USD at 84 now.  It was 78 back in the summer.  The new Abe regime will push the BOJ to do more QE ergo that will drive the Yen down.  All this QE by everyone, like the USA, will eventually cancel each other out.  Nikki up 1.4%, again with QE the money supply will surge which is good for equity markets on the short run.

Looking through the results I found out that Makiko Tanaka of the DPJ was defeated in her district and failed to get a vote share high enough to make it into the Diet on PR.  She is the daugher of Kakuei Tanaka who was the powerful political power broker of the LDP and was the PM of Japan.  Kakuei Tanaka was the political mentor of Ozawa in the 1970s and 1980s until Ozawa turned againist Kakuei Tanaka.  Makiko Tanaka was the foreign minister of the Koizumi administration and had a falling out with Koizumi and eventually went over to the DPJ from the LDP.  I was really impressed with her performance as Japan FM back in  2001 and I am saddened to see her defeated.

I must say all these new parties- the Restoration Party, Your Party, all seem a bit nefarious and right-wing-y

Yes, the JRP could be described as "a bit" right-wing...

Future Party is not right-wing.

This enlights very well all the defects of FPTP system, a totally undemocratic representation.

Japan has a mixed FPTP-PR system.

Which is worse than pure FPTP, but it is still the FPTP part that ruins it.

Well, Your Party is more Libertarian and JPR more of a populist right.  I personally rather like YR.  On the same topic, I would argue that NKP which is LDP's ally is not that right wing.  It is Japan's version of the Christian Democrats, or NKP would argue.  On the hawkish dovish axis, NKP is quite dovish and it is economically centrist.

The FPTP prevails largely, 300 seat out of 480 are assigned with FPTP

Quoting in case you delete it one day ;D

Shouldn't the fptp figures be seen as more 'important' if those are what determine the vast majority of seats?

The old Komeito, pre 8-party-coalition and then alliance with the LDP, was a center-left party.

I am still working on calculating the FPTP votes.  I suspect where was LDP+NKP got 39.46% in PR, they will get around 45% of the FPTP.  Reason is mostly because DPJ, Future Party, and JRP did not run candidates in 300 seats so supporters of those parties would then vote for the person with the best name reconigtion which often is the LDP candidate since LDP has the best farm league of all parties given its domination of prefecture assemblies.  Also this election looks a lot like the 2000 elections where LDP+NKP got 41.7% of the PR vote but won 271 out of 480 seats because of the split in opposition between DPJ, Ozawa's Liberal Party, and SDP.  In that election LDP+NKP got around 45.35% of the vote, I suspect this time it will be similar.

Not sure what you mean.  If Japan had used a all FPTP, the the scale of the LDP+NKP victory will be even greater.  of course under a pure FPTP system, parties like SDP would have died out years ago.

PV has been tabulated. LDP: 43% FPTP, 28% PR. DPJ: 23% FPTP, 15% PR. JRP actually got a higher PR vote than DPJ.

And Abe will be confirmed on the 26th.

Looks like LDP+NKP FPTP vote was 44.49% and PR was 39.69%, so my guess of LDP-NKP FPTP vote of 45% was pretty accurate.  What is interesting, as I pointed out, is that this election looks a lot like 2000 election, when LDP led block got 45.35% of the FPTP vote and 41.7% of the PR vote.  In 2000, LDP led block got 191 FPTP seats versus 246 this time and got 80 PR seats versus 79 this time.  There were complaints back in 2000 about how the system was not fair and that an unpopular incumbant ruling block that could only get 41.7% support would be able to win an election with a significant majority.  This election is an even more extreme version of 2000 election. 

I will spend time mapping doing my own calculation of the FPTP and PR vote because I am interested in figuring out where the extra 5% the LDP-NKP got in FPTP versus PR came from.

Another way to compare LDP+NKP performance in 2012.  This is the lowest number of votes the LDP led block go since 1996.  LDP+NKP got 23,740,931 for PR vote and 26,529,190 in FPTP vote in 2012.  In 2000, LDP led block got 24,952,791 for PR vote and 27,611,760 in FPTP vote.  LDP+NKP in 2012 vote underperformed 2000 2003 2005 and 2009.

It is strange for me that JCP get significantly more FPTP votes than PR votes (even taking into account that it run candidates in nearly every constituency).

That is exactly the point.  LDP-NKP ran candidates in every district as did JCP.  While DPJ, JRP, YP, SDP, and Future Party all only ran candidates in some of the districts.  So anti-LDP voters who did not have their favored party run in their district sometimes vote JCP.  YP and NKP voters tend to vote LDP if no YP or NKP candidates ran in their district but center left voters often vote JCP if they found no good alternative in their district.

The wik table here (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_general_election,_2012) seems to be missing a party that had one seat before the election and zero after. Anybody happen to know what party that is?

Probably New Party Nippon.

Thanks!

For my amusement, results if all 480 seats were distributed according to the PR block vote. Each block constituency was awarded as many seats as it actually has + fptp constituencies included within it; D'Hondt with no unnatural thresholds was used  as *I think* that's what Japan uses for the current 180 - certainly didn't spot any result contradicting that.

LDP 142 (+6), JRP 100 (+100), DPJ 79 (-137), NK 56 (+1), YP 41 (+23), JCP 28 (-3), TPJ 23 (+23), SDP 8 (-9), NPD 3 (0), PNP 0 (-4)

Of course the actual voting result would probably have been a fair bit different under such a system.

---

Now with 2009 comparison figures!

Look over each PR zone and the FPTP the vote and PR vote I am beginning to map out how the PR vote mapped to FPTP votes.  Trends I found were the following

1) LDP+NKP PR voters voted LDP+NKP FPTP.  No surprise here since there was a LDP+NKP candidate in every district.
2) JRP and YP voted for their party FPTP candidates, but where there was none split their vote evenly between LDP+NKP and the center-left parties (DPJ, Future Party, SDP).  In fact since in Osaka there were several districts where JRP and YP endorced the NKP candidate the "free choice" JRP/YP voters that were not able to vote for their own party lean slightly left.
3) Future Party and SDP voted DPJ where they could not vote for their own party, sometimes they voted JCP.
4) DPJ PR voters voted Future and SDP where their candidate was not running but some went to JCP.

One thing that is different in 2012 versus 2009 was that the there was no tactical voting by JCP PR voters.  In 2009 3% out of the 7% voters that voted JCP voted for the center left DPJ alliance in the FPTP vote.  This time around JCP got a surplus FPTP vote mostly based on protest (refusal to vote LDP by center-left voters).  This is part of my point earlier that the real mistake of the DPJ was (asaide from the Ozawa split ito the Future Party) was the split with the SDP.  A broad cente-left alliance of DPJ and SDP (as wwell as Future Party) would give the center-left voter a choice that could win so their vote would not go to the hopeless JCP.  In fact such a alliance would give JCP voters a tactical choice of voting for this llaiance.  This allaince is the basis of a DPJ comeback,especially give the fact that JRP and YP voters are not all wedded into votinh LDP  if left a hard choice of LDP vs DPJ.
 

Are there any differences between JRP and YP voters behavior? I suppose YP voters more easily than JRP voters supported centre-left parties.

Did YP voters always voted for JRP candidate (if their own candidate was not on the ballot) and vice versa?

Using some simple regression analysis, I found that all things equal, 75% of YP PR voters that did not go to YP FPTP candidates went to LDP+NKP FPTP candidates.  Likewise, only 36% of JRP PR voters that did not go to JRP FPTP candidates when to LDP+NKP FPTP candidates.  This means that when given a choice of LDP+NKP or other center left parties (DPJ, SDP, Future Party) when JRP candidates are not available, JRP voters tend to vote center left over LDP-NKP by 2 to 1.  This leads me to feel that the JRP voter are really made up of anti-LDP but disgruntled former DPJ 2009 voters.  If JRP fails or fall apart, they will likely not vote or go back to DPJ.  There is high policy overlap between YP and neoliberal elements of LDP so that so many of YP voters go with LDP-NKP is really not a surprise.  

The Noda cabinet has resigned in advance of Abe's confirmation vote.

Yep. Abe to take office presently. It's the 26th in Japan now.

If so, then I doubt that JRP has a chance to become main alternative to LDP (especially if DPJ will manage to reunite Japanese centre-left). Most voters have a short memory, and I guess that most ex-DPJ voters will forget and forgive DPJ by the time of the next elections.

Another thing JRP should be on the lookout for is that the new JRP members of the diet are mostly new and not vetted for scandals.  I am sure the media will flush out some of these skeletons and this will have a negative impact on the JRP image.  I suspect they will not do as well in the 2013 upper house elections. 

New LDP-NKP starts off strong in post election polling.  This can fall very quickly if economic outlook does not change for the positive soon.  I also suspect a lot of this are DPJ supporters refusing to be polled or saying they support no party after the DPJ was just smashed in the recent elections.

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The support rating for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's new Cabinet stood at 62.0 percent against a disapproval score of 21.8 percent, an opinion poll by Kyodo News showed Thursday.
In the nationwide telephone survey conducted Wednesday and Thursday, support for the Democratic Party of Japan, now an opposition party after its humiliating defeat in the Dec. 16 general election, was 8.6 percent.
The Japan Restoration Party led by former Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara was in second place at 13.0 percent after the Liberal Democratic Party, which earned 34.3 percent.

The Tomorrow Party, founded about a month ago to unite anti-Noda forces to the left of the LDP, will break up.

It looks like Ichirō Ozawa will take most of their elected members and probably re-join the DPJ, which just elected a new leader who's close to Ozawa.

The rump Tomorrow Party will be strongly left-wing but only have 2 or 3 elected members.

They only have one Diet member and are thus derecognized. Ozawa Ichiro will probably stick it out on his own as his new group will get official recognition, though he may go back to the DPJ. The only remaining Tomorrow Party Diet member is a recent defectee from the SDP who may go back there, or she may join the environmentalist/anti-nuclear Green Wind, which lost its two Representatives at the election but has four Councillors and thus needs another member for official recognition (which requires five Diet members across both houses). No idea what Kada Yukiko will do, but presumably her fantastic adventure into national politics is over. Unfortunate; I like her.

Actually, those two Green Breeze representatives both subsequently switched to the Tomorrow Party and run unsuccessfully for re-election under that banner.

The Green Breeze Party has gotten a new representative though. Shizuka Kamei, former LDP leadership candidate and People's New Party leader, who had just been elected for the Tomorrow Party.

The new DPJ leader Banri Kaieda was Ozawa's proxy back in 2011 and was defeated by Noda and is close to Ozawa as pointed out above.  His name, Branri or 万里 or 10,000 li (Chinese version of kilometer which really is about 1/4 of a kilometer) is named after the Great Wall of China, which in Chinese is called Long Wall of 10,000 Li.

If Future party does fold into the DPJ then at least this is part of the consolidation of the center-left which is needed for DPJ to survive.  What is also key is revival of an alliance with SDP.  This way a viable alternative can be formed once the JRP starts falling apart which I suspect it will.

It's depressing to think that the DPJ will continue to be the main party of the Japanese center-left, such as it is, but I suppose this is better than most possible alternatives.

I suppose Kaieda will let Ozawa return to the DPJ not much the worse for wear if Ozawa wants to. It's a shame. Ozawa's new 'Life Party' outfit is his fourth party in six months, and eighth in his political career. He jacked Governor Kada for all the political capital she could conceivably have had (or acquired) in what I think was a really reprehensible and abject manner.

By the way, it seems that JRP already began to fade (recent polls: http://shisaku.blogspot.ru/2012/12/the-second-coming-of-abe-cabinet-first.html).

I like that blog's nicknames for the parties (from the post with final seat totals) very much:


Oops! I Did It Again 294
New Sentinel 31

Deservedly Chastized 57
You're Scaring Me 54
Politics Is So Icky 18
No Future 9
Cash Burn 8
Left Behind 2
Post Office Players 1
Great White North 1
Anonymous #1 0
Anonymous #2 0

Independents 5

I like this too, but I can't understand why did New Komeito, YP and JCP get their nicknames. Could you explain?

I know JCP is cash burn because they put candidates in every district and never gets the 15% (I think that is the threshold) of the vote to get their deposit back.  So this means JCP loses significant amounts of cash that it gets from its loyal party members by their line of nominating candidates in all districts regardless of winnablity.

At a guess, YP is 'Politics Is So Icky' because of their (real or alleged) pretensions to being in some sense 'above it all', and general perceived [over?]idealism. No idea about Komeito.

As for NKP being called New Sentinel, most likely it has to do with links of NKP and Sōka Gakkai and the fact that many consider Sōka Gakkai a cult.  Perhaps it has something to do with Jehovah's Witnesses which is also considered a cult by many and that it is called the Watchtower Society which is simialr to Sentinel.  
 

Im glad Abe won its scary how many votes Ishihara got.