Talk Elections

http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/08/world/meast/israel-politics/index.html?hpt=wo_c2 (http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/08/world/meast/israel-politics/index.html?hpt=wo_c2)

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wow.  94 out of 120.  what's that, 80% of Knesset?

78.33...%

This isn't actually the broadest as the Shamir-Peres coalition had 97 MK's.

Also Mofaz can teach Romney how to flip-flop. The media is having a field day with videos of Mofaz for months saying terrible things about Bibi and what a failure. Also promising very clearly that there is no chance that he will join the coalition and that he is the only one who can stand up to and replace Bibi. Worst of all is that the day before the deal was announced he blamed Shelly that she is pretending to be an opposition while secretly making a deal with Bibi while secretly doing exactly that very thing himself.

A little part of me is always very happy when politicians play the self-parody game to that absurd (glorious) extent.

Well, we'd have to wait and see if a few of the Kadima people defect. A certain Ms Tzipi isn't sounding very happy, does she?

Livni resigned and is not relevant at the moment. As for the other members of Kadima, they approved this deal unanimously, And with good (personal) reason: most of them were about to lose their jobs which were now saved because of this deal.

Well, good for them. They should start merger negotiations as soon as possible - otherwise they are running the risk of missing the next Knesset even more decisively. And, given their recent decisions, it's clear they are valuing being in that House a lot :))

A bit off/t, but I heard that one June 4, 1967, a surprise coalition government was suddenly announced, and Israel attacked Egypt the next day. Is this a signal that Israel will attack Iran this year?

That's a scary thought.

Not nearly as scary as the other way around...

Actually, if you care about the Jews, probably scarier. If Iran were mad enough to actually attack, it would be dealt w/ speedily and uncontroversially. If Israel attacks, it could really misfire nastily.

I'm not sure the decision to enter the coalition will necessarily harm them in the next election. It's clear that a significant portion of centrists wanted Kadima to enter the coalition and are happy with the decision. The first poll after the decision doesn't show any movement away from Kadima. IMO the worst looking thing for Kadima is the flip-flopping, but I doubt many people will remember and/or care much about that in 18 months.

It's not that the people should/would be unhappy about them joining the coalition. It's that it's not clear, what's the difference between them and Likud. If you don't like the government: well, vote for the opposition. If you like the government: vote for the government - that is, Likud. What's their niche?

Netaniyahu is, by far, a better politician than Mofaz. This is still going to be the Netaniyahu government, on which Kadima will struggle to make any imprint. What are the positions they are getting, besides the minister w/ out portfolio?

People who, for various reasons would not agree to vote for Likud (because they dislike Bibi, because they think Likud is too right wing for them, because they associate Likud with a type of people they wouldn't want to be associated with), but who either think a unity is government the responsible thing to do or don't like the idea of early elections.


Agreed about Bibi being a better politician. They will be getting some committee chairmanships and there is media speculation that they will be getting some ministries soon. Obviously they would be getting much more if they entered the coalition after the election from a position of power.

So, is Shinui 2.0 or whatever Lapid's party is called going to eat most of Kadima?  I thought they have roughly the same voter demos.

Basically yes together with Labour, they might still keep their votes but the centrist vote is especially fickle so Centrist parties are prone to quickly rising and crashing down again and unless Mofaz can make his party appealing somehow to these voters they will disappear. And from what I have seen of Mofaz so far I wouldn't trust him to be able to do that.

The 12 out of their 28 members who bothered to show up approved it unanimously, that is (http://The 12 out of their 28 members who bothered to show up approved it unanimously, that is):


Certainly looks like there might be possibility for a split, especially if the other 16 are worried that going into the next elections under the Kadima label would be too risky.


Circumstances were a bit different then; the unity government was forged specifically because Isreal's neighbors had made it obvious a war war imminent. Here, on the other hand, there are some pretty specific domestic issues they're wanting to address.

If anything, I think this makes an Israeli strike against Iran less likely. Kadima + Likud + Ehud Barak's splinter from Labor is exactly half of the Knesset now so presumably those super-right wing minor parties are more marginalized.

Disliking Netaniyahu and liking Mofaz.... Hm., that's a particularly perverted taste. Are there many of those? (I AM being disingenious here, but only somewhat). After a year in this coalition, Kadima will be associated exactly with the same sort of people, anyway.

Not necessarily liking Mofaz, plenty of Israelis don't like any politician, But if they apathetic or dislike Mofaz less than Bibi that could be enough.

And being associated with a certain segment in the population is a party specific thing and not to the coalition as a whole. All the parties to the right of Meretz have served with almost every other parties and it hasn't stopped stopped parties from retaining distinct voting groups anyway.

Nothing I say in this thread means I think Kadima will do well in the next election. But that is because I think very lowly of Mofaz's political skills and mass appeal, and I think a better politician could have entered the coalition and come out looking better than Mofaz can.

Coming into coalition w/ Netaniyahu "from the left" is suicidal. Barak's not a complete nincompoop: he, actually, managed to get to be a PM, didn't he? And look what's this done to him.

Being associated w/ the "wrong sort" ...  Kadima is, essentially, a Likud splinter, graced w/ a few ex-Laborites for a show.  Are they REALLY associated w/ different people?

The problem is not being a coalition w/ Netaniyahu - The United Israel YB shows that one can be very successful in this coalition. The problem is, Kadima has no reason to exist if it is merely a junior partner in such a coalition. It may be the right decision for individual members of the party - as long as they just go back and rejoin Likud (probably, they should have never left). But as a political entity Kadima will be squeezed  to nothing pretty shortly and pretty thoroughly, methinks.  

Kadima could have worked, and it wasn't a bad idea to join it at the time.  The problem was that, as Sharon's personal vehicle, it got saddled with terrible luck as first Sharon died went into a Persistent Vegetative State, and it had even worse luck by having Sharon's successor be the hapless Ehud Olmert.  Kadima's first few years were a debacle that probably guaranteed it wouldn't survive for the long haul.

And Olmert was one of responsibles for Likud's ressurection, as he invited Lieberman to cabinet. Without that, YB would replace Likud as main right-wing party and Likud would be by now, ended, or a small rump. If Sharon had knowledge of his fate, he would put a better deputy and Kadima would remain by long, as a 2nd coming of old Labour as natural government party of Israel.

Barak's problem is that while he can get into positions of power, he tends become hated after that. His big loss of popularity happened not when he entered Likuds coalition, but during his tenure as PM.


That may be so but in 2009 Likud and Kadima had very different electorates nonetheless. The former looked like the classic Likud electorate, being stronger in poorer cities especially in the periphery, and rural Mizrachi areas. Whereas Kadima was clearly a more left wing electorate being stronger in wealthy cities in the centre and the Askenazi rural areas.

Well, in 2009 Kadima was the major party on the left - so it got some leftist vote. Now the major party on the left is Labor, once again. This was true even before the new coalition came into being - any reason to believe they are going to hold much of that electorate now?

Haaretz is reporting that 5 Kadima MKs are all but ready to bolt - at least, if they get two more to go w/ them (you need 7 MKs not to be bound by the anti-defection law).  Interestingly, all five are somewhat "strange" ethnically, three of them ex-Soviet, but only one Ashkenazic: Russian (Orit Zuaretz), a Georgian (Nino Abesadze), a Mountain (Tat) Jew (Robert Tiviaev) as well as an Ethiopian (Shlomo Molla) and a Druze (Majallie Whbee).

In other news, outside Knesset, both Tzipi Livny and Haim Ramon (one of the key co-founders of the party from the "left" and the chairman of its Council) have left Kadima and are planning to form a new party.

If they succeed in finding two more MK's it will be very ironic as the law that allows just 7 to defect (instead of a third) is called the "Mofaz law" because it was originally passed to allow Mofaz to leave Kadima and join the coalition.

Livni's decision to leave looks really silly in hindsight as she could have split and led the new party, but instead will now be out of the knesset until at least the next elections.

Orit Zuaretz came when she was 4 in 1971 rather than the post USSR collapse immigration wave, no one thinks of her as Russian. And while the ethnic makeup might be interesting they have in common them being Livni loyalists.

There seems to be quite a bit of a Jewish Agency flavor w/ the Livny crowd then. (Zuaretz included, BTW :) ).

Wait, Livni's back into things? Didn't she say she was permanently out of politics like less then a week ago?

When she resigned from the Knesset she said she would remain in public life so it's clear we haven't seen the last of her.

Maybe Livni left Kadima and resigned her Knesset seat to not be seen as a sore loser.