Talk Elections

More americans think Obama will win according to a Gallup poll. theres a trend in these who do you think will win polls. More people thought Clinton and Dubya will win and less People thought Poppy Bush would win.

Obama 56%
Romney 36%

Who do you think will win?

Romney is tied if not leading nationally. We haven't even had the convention yet. The economy tends to dip around the summer months. Romney is close in a lot of states, and a lot of the polls seem to have overpolled Democrats.

So you know what? I'm going to go out on a limb and say Romney will win. On November 5th, everyone will still probably put their money on Obama. But I think the turnout will surprise people and Romney will clinch the presidency.

Here's hoping.

It's incredibly difficult to beat an incumbent president. There has to be a perfect storm of national instability or malaise, an incredibly unpopular incumbent whose base support has collapsed, and an incredibly charismatic and competent opponent who can control the campaign dialogue.

Obama as an incumbent is certainly more vulnerable than Reagan 84 and Clinton 96, mainly because the economy is still gaining footing, but he's still in a stronger position to win than a lot of people would like to admit.

1) Improving economy. Things could change, but we're adding jobs, production levels are increasing and the unemployment rate has dropped dramatically in the last year.

2) Obama's base is secure. He still maintains well over 80% support from Democrats.

3) Romney is still a weak nominee. His favorables are improving, but still pretty bad. He continually makes gaffes, he gets visibly flustered when he's not able to stay on message, and he still hasn't totally connected with the Republican base.

4) Obama still leads in fundraising

5) Incumbency. Obama has shown that, as the incumbent, he can direct the dialogue in his favor. And election data makes it pretty clear that voters aren't willing to oust an incumbent unless things are very very bad.

Obama's fairly obviously going to win barring some random economic collapse (goldbug hysterics over Greece not withstanding ;)), and Romney's such a profoundly uninteresting individual that it's bound to be a very, very boring election. Unfortunately.

Obama/Gingrich would have been a great election. Sigh.

The poll would be too vague because Romney is not as well known as Obama.  In addition, over-confidence will probably keep a lot of the under-30 crowd at home because they will be too lazy to vote now that there is no Iraq war to protest.  The gay marriage issue might bring out some of the under 30 voters, but gay marriage is primarily a media driven issue, and its not enough to get under 30 straight people off their couches.  The election will be a lot closer than most people realize, if Romney improves his ground game and GOTV.  Romney's also a better candidate and more disciplined than Bob Dole and John Kerry.  A strong evangelical VP will help Romney enormously with GOTV. 

If you want my honest answer, yes. I do think Obama will win re-election, but narrowly. I'm hoping not, but I'm thinking realistically.

Yes, he can.

If the economy holds up/gains a little speed throughout the year. If Obama runs a fantastic campiagn.

I agree with this statement. Romney'll win.

We also need to remember that this forum is a bubble. 90% of Americans don't invest any time and energy into politics until maybe a few weeks before election day, so we're not really representative of the average voter who, honestly, could care less about politics and campaigns.

Once we hit September, after the conventions, then maybe our predictions will hold water. But as of now, anything can happen.

But whoever is answering the political polls out there in Main Street USA has Romney tied with Obama.  So there are some regular people who prefer Romney. 

If you think regular people don't follow politics and don't care, then Obama should be way up in polling, since normal people will likely prefer whoever is president over a relatively unknown person if they don't follow the news. 

You may be flippant and think normal people don't care about politics.  But here is the secret, normal people care about issues, especially if it affects their daily lives. 

Normal people care about foreign wars, and their sons dying in combat. 
Normal people care about their jobs and their taxes. 
Normal people care about health insurance and tuition.
the elderly care about social security. 

Normal people don't really care about gay marriage, but Obama is trying his hardest to make it the primary reason people vote for him in 2012. 

Normal people might not know how Romney looks like, but right now they are thinking about their jobs, the economy, their families.  Its up to Romney to make the case that he is credible, competent, and stable to be president during the debates. 

um...ok...well I was wasn't really looking for a stump speech but thanks anyway.

People care about issues that affect them, but most don't follow the day to day developments of a presidential campaign until it's almost time to vote. That's what I was getting at.

So there's clearly not much of a reason to vote for Romney.


He's...he's mentioned it a few times, yes, and recently made heavy use of it for fundraising among certain groups. And? Have you seen Romney's commencement speech at Jerry Falwell's 'university'?



My answer to this question is that it's too early to tell considering normal people care a lot more about whether or not a given soundbite has objective correlatives that work for them than they do about much of anything else.

Normal people won't vote for Obama a 2nd time.

So Obama supporters are abnormal?

On topic... I think it's more likely than not... but it's a long way to go.

Hopefully not, probably will.

Normal people may not care about presidential politics, but there is a mood and confidence in whoever the current president may be at the time.  Normal people will either think the president is doing a good job or a bad job depending on issues effecting their life. 

Right now, I think the mood on Obama is lukewarm.  Liberals still love him for his liberal policies.  But the economic depression is a humongous task to handle, and that was not an issue that Obama ran much on in 2008.  He talked more about opposing the Iraq War and not voting for the Iraq War if he were a senator at the time.  So voters like want he has done on foreign policy, but they are skeptical about his domestic policy. 

I think Obama is trying to ride out the clock until November.  He's hoping that there are no major economic disasters to lower confidence.  He's throwing out some distractions like gay marriage to get media attention, but I think he's running on fumes. 

I have him as very slight favourite. 55% maybe.

If I had to make an even odds bet today on who would win in November, I'd bet on Obama. At 2-1 or 3-1 I keep my money in my pocket.  Offered 4-1 odds or better and I'd be willing to place a bet on Romney.

The economy in the next few months is the biggest if not only factor.  Not so likely ads, debates, or VP pick will move the needle anywhere like that does.  At the moment I'd call it about 55% Obama wins popular vote, 2 in 3 chance he's re-elected.