Talk Elections

When are the numbers going to be released for May?  Friday, June 1 or June 8?  I can't find it online.

June 1, 8:30 AM EST

Thanks!  Do you have a URL where I can find that?

bls.gov/ces

Thanks!

We are about 13 hours from the numbers being released?  What are we expecting for the month of May 2012?

Seems like it'd be easier to have a single megathread for these monthly job reports :P

Numbers released today: http://www.cnbc.com/id/47643788

May 2012:
+69,000 jobs
April 2012 revised down from +115,000 to +77,000
March 2012 revised down from +154,000 to +143,000
U-3 unemployment +0.1 (rises to 8.2% from 8.1% in April 2012)
U-6 unemployment +0.3 (rises to 14.8% from 14.5% in April 2012)
Labor force participation rate +0.2 (rises to 63.8% from 63.6% in April 2012)

Unambiguously awful numbers, and everyone should panic a little.

Obviously now is the perfect time for another debt limit fiasco!

Ouch.

At least this will spur Congress to pass further economic stimulus like any high school economics textbook teaches, right? Right?

With the May jobs report looking puny and with March and April now considerably worse than they were originally, this is definitely not good news for President Obama or Senate Democrats.  I've got a feeling somewhere in New England, Winfield is jumping up and down with this jobs report.  I've also got a feeling we may be staring at the final 7 1/2 months of the Obama Presidency.

How much debt do you think the US  can stand to accrue trying to prime the "unprimeable" pump, doing the same thing that really didn't do much before?  Macroeconomics sucks. So many have an opinion about something so few understand, to the extent it is even understandable.  Heck even the gurus are confused. Sometimes you just don't get the behavior changes that you expect.

Could it just be that people are just unreliable instead of there being too few resources or too many barriers of entry or trade constraints?

This could simply be a coordinated cartel of super wealthy employers who have conspired to put someone who will "play ball" in the White House...think of it as a Billionaires' Strike against the Obama and the Democrats.

Then again, it could simply be an issue that we have no one to sell stuff too because everyone else in the world has run out of money. Then again, this wouldn't be an issue if we started reining in free trade.

Maybe Obama should propose a >$1 trillion dollar giant laser that will zap illegal immigrants as they cross the border. This form of stimulus might actually pass the House.

Core 25-54 Employment Rates Still Near Historic Lows
By DAVID HOGBERG, INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY

The unemployment rate rose slightly to 8.2% in May, holding above 8% for the 40th straight month, the Labor Department reported Friday.

http://news.investors.com/article/613346/201206010854/working-age-employment-rates-near-historic-lows.htm

There's good in the bad. Oil prices continue to fall and the falling 10-year bond rates could help spur the housing market.

But interest rates are already at rock bottom for years. If there's no Aggregate Demand, no investment will occur. The Fed can create a shock-and-awe policy by promising to do whatever it takes to create six digits of jobs for months for two years. It's heretical, but things need to be done.

The stimulus appeared to lack efficacy because at the same time the biggest measures were kicking in 2010, states were carrying out ravaging budget cuts and public employee layoffs that served to diminish its positive effects. At the same time the stimulus obviously was designed to be smaller than it should have been and lacked the most effective measures to appease Collins, Snowe and Specter. The stimulus was ineffective because it wasn't large enough and because it didn't address the state and muni budget problem properly; not because stimulus "doesn't work".

 Obviously it's not desirable for the US to keep piling on debt until the end of time, but the middle of the worst economic crisis since the Depression isn't the time to start cutting government spending.

The problem with the austerity approach is that it's never been an attempt to solve the crisis, but an attempt to use it as an excuse to slash government.

I find it hilarious how some people would like the paint the picture of this debate being between people who favor racking up debt and people who are against deficits. It's almost comical how dumb that argument is.

Oh, wow, just noticed that labor force participation is actually up. How long has it been since that happened?

Baby boomers retiring and Gen Y not jumping in at the rate 18-29's used to is depressing the rate.

Maybe this will force the Fed to actually do something to address the jobs situation.

Oh Oakvale, you're such an optimist.

Well I admire your confidence at least. The downside, is that the first step to knowledge is awareness of one's own ignorance. I have at least got to step one. :)

Who could have predicted that a spineless moderate hero and a Congress bent on making him look bad would lead to poor results?

/sarcasm

And yeah, the first frame of the cartoon in my signature is highly relevant today.

So what are everyone's predictions for the next 5 months. Are we heading into negative territory or will job growth pick up again??

Put investors, and corporations siting on tons of cash they won't use to buy machinery and bricks and mortar, and consumers who won't spend, on the coach, maybe hypnotize them to get them spill their guts about their subconscious hopes and fears, and maybe one might move closer to finding an answer, assuming therapy is worth a darn, but that is another issue.

The mild weather in the winter distorted the employment figures upwards in the winter, and downwards in the spring. People whom didn't lose their jobs because the weather turned cold in fall weren't rehired in the spring for the obvious reasons. The January numbers weren't nearly as positive as they were hyped to be, and the spring numbers might not be as dreadful as they appear. Still, I wouldn't want to be Obama today.

Corporate tax rates are clearly too low. But long term, there will continue to be huge unemployment problems.
http://marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm

Europe's worsening debt crisis appears to have played a role in this.  Hopefully, the increase in labor participation will produce a positive jobs report in the coming months.

1.) The unemployment rate increased sharply for those without a high school diploma (from 12.5 percent to 13 percent).

2.) While it decreased for those with a BA (from 4 percent to 3.9 percent).

3.) It also increased for those with a high school diploma but not college (7.9 percent to 8.1 percent).

4.) It also increased for those with some college (7.6 percent to 7.9 percent).

Basically people who went to college saw their rates decline very slightly. It increased notably for the others.

So people that vote saw their unemployment decline slightly.. Hmm...