Talk Elections

UPDATE: Announcement is being made on Sat. Aug. 11 in Norfolk at 9am ET: http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2012/08/10/158606908/mitt-romney-to-announce-running-mate-saturday

OK, fine, I'll appease the masses by consolidating most VP discussion into two threads.  This thread will be for actual hard news about the VP search.  You know, stuff that you find on news sites or blogs that is supposedly coming from either the campaign or the potential VP candidates themselves.  If someone denies interest in being Romney's running mate, you can post it here.  Or if leaks come out of the campaign about who they're vetting or what the criteria are, then post it in here as well.  Examples of what would go in this thread are in these threads, which I'll lock shortly:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152534.0

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=153558.0

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=153778.0

Certainly, the news items will generate some speculation here about who's up and who's down in the running mate search, but for free-floating speculation about who you think Romney *should* pick, independent of any particular news pegs, I'll have another thread going, which I'll create shortly.

An interesting statement from the chairman of the Massachusetts Republican party, which I have no doubt sums up the criteria Romney is using in his VP selection.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/05/romneys-vice-presidential-checklist/

“The first thing is he needs somebody who the people of the country will look at that individual and say if anything ever god forbid happened to Mitt Romney, this person could be president,” says Robert Maginn, chairman of the Massachusetts Republican party.

“So it’s almost like–the first rule is don’t be cute, don’t try to pick somebody who is going to bring a swing state, or bring a demographic, you pick the person who you honestly believe could step in the Oval Office and run the free world and run the country. ”

“The second thing is, there’s gotta be good personal chemistry. The president and the vice president have to work together very well. So there’s a personal connection that has to be there, they have to be able to help each other, advise each other,” Maginn explains.

“Those are the two most important factors and then you can say that from there, you can think about what balance does the person bring to the ticket?” Maginn asks.

That balance of course offers the best lead for speculation. Who balances out the successful businessman and former governor of Massachusetts?

Romney and Paul Ryan met campaigning in Wisconsin and apparently the two of them 'work'. Certainly it would be easy to imagine Ryan as the President. So I think these statements recommend Ryan. Of course, Ryan brings with him certain problems...

If personal chemistry is the deciding factor then the nomination is definitely Ryan's to lose- when the word "bromance" was being thrown around...

Hahaha Romney is seriously considering picking Ryan? Awesome.

If he does, though, the Democrats will tear him a new one.

What, pray tell, would the Dems say that they haven't been saying for 2 years now? Romney is running on that budget and both men have literally put their arms around each other quite enthusiastically (unlike Dole/Kemp). If Romney's unafraid of a de facto ticket, no reason to be afraid of a de jure one.

If Ryan is Romney's actual VP, the connection will be even more permanent and the Democratic attacks will be relentless. They won't say anything different, they'll just be saying it more.

The MSM, having promoted the nomination of the most anti-Tea Party candidacy of Mitt Romney, will get behind another anti-Tea Partyer, Paul Ryan.  

All you need to know about Ryan is that his budget would balance in 26 years.  Sen. Rand Paul (T-KY) has proposed a budget that will balance in five.

Ryan's budget has already been overrun by facts.  In a few more years the Ryan Budget will be so useless that the Democrats will adopt it and whine "hey, it was a Republican idea back then (when it could have done some good) -- why won't you support it now?!?"

When will Romney announce who his running mate is? Obama and McCain announced theirs in August, but didn't Kerry announce his in June?

Kerry announced his in early July- 3 weeks before the DNC. No real bump. By all indications Romney will announce the pick no more than a week before C-Day. Probably by appearing with said person at a campaign event like Obama and McCain did in '08.

If Romney picks Ryan, he won't be able to shamelessly flip flop away from the congressman's budget plans once they come under scrutiny again. I doubt Ryan's solutions are any more resilient to Democratic attacks now than they were a year ago.

Thus, I don't think Ryan's on the ticket unless Romney is 100% ready to commit himself to his proposals for the entire campaign. He very well could be ready, but I doubt it.

Remember, Romney needs to keep this election a referendum on Obama's performance on the economy, or else he won't win. If his campaign gets distracted or put on the defensive over Ryan's budget plans, Romney will be in serious trouble. Thus I think Ryan ultimately violates the "do no harm" rule, and we can rule him out.

Like Kathy Hochul. She won in a Republican-leaning district based solely on opposition to the Ryan plan.

Portman is meeting Bibi in Israel.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/05/vp-contender-rob-portman-to-meet-with-israel-pm/

I posted in this thread two weeks ago that Romney officials were saying that the vetting process had begun, and at least some of the prospective running mate options had already been contacted to ask for info:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=153778.0

Pawlenty, Portman, Rubio, and Ryan have all refused to say whether they've been contacted by the campaign for vetting.  Daniels and Thune (at least as of two weeks ago) said that they had not been contacted.  Now McDonnell also says that he has not been contacted:

http://washingtonexaminer.com/local/virginia-news/2012/05/mcdonnell-romney-campaign-not-vetting-me-veep/666366

A spokesman for Nikki Haley says that she hasn't been contacted for vetting, and would refuse to be vetted if asked, because (as Haley has said before) she isn't interested in being VP:

http://summerville.patch.com/articles/haley-spokesperson-gov-hasnt-been-vetted-and-wont-be

so who the hell is being vetted?

Most likely Rubio, Portman, Jindal, Ryan, Pawlenty, CMR/Ayotte or Toomey as longshots. I'd be very surprised if McDonnell wasn't on the list but we'll only find out in 2 years when H&H release their book.

The blog race42012 claims that the following people (though this would probably be an incomplete list) have been sent vetting materials by the Romney campaign:

Ayotte
Christie
Jindal
McMorris Rodgers
Pawlenty
Portman
Rubio

But this hasn't been confirmed by any other news source, so take it with a grain of salt.

The following people have refused to say whether or not they're being vetted:

Pawlenty
Portman
Rubio
Ryan

The following people have said on the record that they're *not* being vetted:

Daniels
Haley
McDonnell
Thune

(Though it's possible that they're lying and/or that the Romney campaign just hasn't gotten to them yet.)

So little is known for sure.  I would bet money though that Pawlenty is indeed under consideration, because of how suddenly he reversed his denials of interest.  He went from "No, I have no interest in being veep, and would turn down the offer" to "I can't really talk about this anymore, and I'm not saying whether I would or wouldn't accept the offer" just at the moment when the vetting process began.

I would also bet that most, if not all, of the people who say "no comment" are being vetted.

Agreed.  In vice presidentese, "I don't think I'll be picked" means "I'm desperate to be picked", and "I can't say whether I'm being vetted" means "I'm obviously being vetted, but can't tell you, you idiot reporter."

By the way, Nikki Haley has put in her two cents as to who should be Romney's choice: either Bobby Jindal or Condi Rice.

http://www.thestate.com/2012/05/30/2295145/haley-bobby-jindal-or-condi-rice.html (http://www.thestate.com/2012/05/30/2295145/haley-bobby-jindal-or-condi-rice.html)

I wouldn't use the word desperate so much as interested. Desperate is McDonnell, who has outdone John 'effin Edwards in his public campaigning for that job but with little effect. I said it would haunt him and now look- he claims he's not being vetted and NJ/WaPo have way downgraded him on their rankings. Romney isn't the sort of person to appreciate that sort of stuff given his background and personality.

As recently as April, Jeb Bush said that he'd "consider it" if Romney asked him to be his running mate.

Now he says that he wouldn't accept, and wouldn't agree to a vetting:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/06/jeb-bush-vp-candidacy-not-in-the-cards-for-me-and-he-can-prove-it/

He probably wasn't on the list to begin with.

Looks like if Jeb is picked, it really would be a last minute surprise.  The liberal spin will be that Romney is desperate and throwing a hail mary with Jeb, among other negative things.  If Jeb doesn't allow the vetting, it seems he really is off the list.  Of the names that have allowed vetting, it seems they are relatively young and new politicians, with 2 years of service or less.  Portman, Ayotte, Ryan, and Rubio aren't BIG NAME candidates yet and their experience level is low.  It seems that the group is mostly for PR purposes and not realistic options.  Perhaps Romney wants to vet them for Cabinet positions.  Of the vetting group, Portman only seems like a realistic choice.

Those people aren't big names? *facepalm*

There's a difference being a Big "media" name and a Big "well-deserved" name.  Most of those people who are being vetted now have served less than a term in their current position.  Sarah Palin is a big name, but I would not pick her to be VP. 

John McCain, John Kerry, Joe Biden are Big Names with experience. 

John Edwards and Obama were just big names built by media exposure. 

I never discount the possibility that someone may be lying about this stuff, but if Bush and Haley are telling the truth about not being vetted and not being willing to undergo the vet even if they were asked, then the chances of them getting picked is zero.  Everyone has to go through the vetting process in order to be picked.  At least, that's the way it's been for decades, and I don't see Romney of all people overturning that.  Even Palin in 2008 was vetted, in so far as she filled out the questionnaire that the McCain campaign gave her, and turned over all the relevant financial and legal records that the campaign asked for.  Where the McCain campaign dropped the ball was in failing to do much of a deeper investigation of her record in public office.

Anyway, here's a new story on the Romney VP search that suggests that there's at least a chance that Romney will name his running mate early:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47656279

I don't take Veep denials that seriously.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/30/11963716-thune-says-hes-open-to-being-romneys-vp?lite

It looks like Thune has changed his tune and wants to be VP.  If Romney does not choose Thune, then it will be severely disappointing in political strategy.  All of the other VP candidates are mediocre compared to Thune.  He's a rising star and he'll win over southern evangelicals and midwesterners including Iowa.  Good VP picks are usually not a surprise or newbie selections.  You can usually spot a strong VP candidate at least 2 years before election day.  Newbie media flavors of the month like Rubio don't have the chops to handle national office at this point in their lives. 

Thune is the next Quayle.

What makes you think Thune is like Quayle?

Damn, who could have predicted Romney needing the support of Southern Evangelicals and midwesterners. 

It might look desperate at 20 days, to get publicity and whatever.  2 weeks should be good.  

In the past, it was more about the "surprise" factor and building up suspense.  Obama made a big media circus out of it for several weeks with his 3 finalists.  

I don't think Romney wants to shock or surprise people, he just wants to announce it and then start campaigning hard against Obama.  I'm doubtful Romney will announce a finalists list either because it would damage the ego of the losers to have the media camped out of their houses.  

Romney is almost certainly going to leak the names of the finalists, so that he can gauge the media reaction to them before making a final decision.  He won't want a repeat of Palin in 2008, where the pick catches people by surprise.

That'd be a terrible move - the genius of the Palin pick was the surprise factor; there was nothing but round-the-clock positive coverage for a full week.  If Palin had 20 more I.Q. points she would've been the best VP choice in history and John McCain would be President today.

Not after the stock market crashed, but that's for another thread.

As for finalists, we have a pretty good idea about who might make that list.

He'll probably leak the top 5 names.  But he's not going to build up suspense by announcing at the last minute before the convention, and having the media camp out at people's houses.  He'll release the finals list a month before, and then announce the VP 2 weeks before the convention. 

Of course, if Palin had a higher IQ, she would not be such a surprise pick. 
She was a shock pick because she was a newbie, young, naive, and unsure candidate.  If she were anywhere near a smart candidate, the press would have been aware of her presence.
 
In this 24-7 media age, every competent smart politician will have a strong media presence that should never shock the media coverage. 
If you pick an "out-of-nowhere" shocking rube VP, then you are severely doing something wrong.  McCain gambled on Palin and threw a hail mary, and it was a foolish dangerous gamble that proved how dangerous and incompentent it is picking an unknown incompetent person as VP. 

You can play games with the media all day, but if you try to hard to fool the media, you're probably going to end up fooling yourself and making a fool out of yourself. 

Transparency is important because it proves you are a smart/competent person.  When people hide from the press, they have something embarrassing to hide.  McCain hid Palin from the press and it proved that he was the one looking stupid in the end. 

Besides, if Romney picks Thune or Portman, it will be hardly a surprise.  The only "surprise" candidate worth the "surprise" is Jeb Bush since the liberal media would attack Jeb personally from day one. 

The point is that if McCain had leaked the fact that Palin was one of the finalists several weeks in advance, then she would have gotten some media scrutiny before the fact, and people might have actually realized that she was missing those 20 IQ points.  Then McCain could have actually decided to pick someone else if it looked like this wasn't going to work.  Or the campaign at least would have been more prepared for handling her.

I will always believe Palin was actually a net-positive.

I still remember waking up the day of that rally and seeing Sarah Palin speak. I had no idea who she was, but I was smiling the whole time. It was probably the first time in months that I'd thought Obama could actually lose. It was absolutely thrilling.

Something to consider in regards to the timing of Romney's running mate annoucement is the Olmypics, which run from July 27 to August 12. He's more than likely not going to make during that time period. So an early pick from him would break the three week early record set by Kerry.

I think he'll follow precedent and name his pick sometime the week before the convention.

I think Palin helped a little bit, but most VP should help solidify support.  But I'm sure a lot of people who may have been unsure of Obama, became more confident in him with Biden instead of McCain with Palin, even though they won't acknowledge it.  The fact that she was a woman, just improved the enthusiasm factor, and she is young/good-looking photogenic, and is a good stump speaker helps. 

But if McCain picked TPaw, he might have been more competitive in the MidWest and MidAtlantic.  VP Romney may have helped in the rockies. 

McCain went for media pizzaz instead of campaigning on competence.

Which makes sense, because Obama was surely gonna win on that same media pizzazz if he was left unchallenged on that front. Turns out he did anyway, but at least Johnny tried.

Even if Sarah were somewhat competent, the swing states never went to McCain.  Did polling ever show McCain ahead in the swing states after the RNC?

Sarah may have been a savvy media pick, but as far as political voting, it never translated into winning swing voters, or female voters.  Just because Sarah is a woman, didn't mean that female voters would rush to McCain and hopes he has a heart attack to elevate Palin.  Politics and GOTV is about shaking hands and building voter relationships, it takes more than one good month to become president or vice president. 

Jeb continues to be Shermanesque.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0612/77137.html

Romney might move the announcement up to late July/early August, per Mike Allen.

http://www.politico.com/driving-the-day/

It's not like Portman would generate much buzz anyway. So I'm mixed on this one.

Ayotte - good selection;

Christie - I love the guy but too Northeastern; Christie needs to finish what he started in NJ;

Daniels - His wife will kill this possibility;

Haley -  Do not believe she helps the ticket in any way;

Jindal - interesting...the Natural Born Issue and his poor speaking style are problems.  His access to a powerful ethnic group and lots of money lend to his pick; Louisiana does nothing
to "balance" the ticket geographically where Romney needs balance;

McDonnell - no opinion;

McMorris Rodgers - no opinion;

Pawlenty - not a bad choice.  Provides some balance. 

Portman - does nothing for me, but he is geographically located quite well for the ticket;

Rubio - great choice by my criteria.  He also has the natural born issue to hurdle;
 
Ryan - love the man, but his place is in the House.  He is, like I am, a Randian.  Brilliant mind.  Excellent speaker.  His family is his priority and if he becomes the Speaker instead of numb nuts Boehner he will truly help our country.

Thune - OK pick. 

==================
Scott Walker is definitely a possible pick.

More later.

Adam

Baton Rouge and Miami are both in the United States of America.

They are brown and thus suspicious.

::)

Rubio isn't even brown...

But his name is.

I think he's alleging that Jindal and Rubio were test tube babies, and thus not naturally born.  Personally, I don't think the voters would hold that against them.

Portman to NC next week for a roundtable, following Ryan in NC yesterday. Audition Phase II is definitely underway.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/06/08/vp_auditions_phase_2_portman_like_ryan_to_hit_nc_114426.html

Jindal joins the list of people who refuses to say whether he is being vetted:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS/bobby-jindal-vetted-romney-camp/story?id=16528998#.T9QLJY4dkUU

GOP12 had him on the list a couple of weeks ago. Silence means yes.

Rand Paul says it would be an honor to be Romney's running mate, but there's no indication that he's being considered:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/06/08/rand-paul-would-be-an-honor-to-be-romneys-vp/

Kelly Ayotte has been talking to Romney about foreign policy, but it also sounds like she's denying that she's being vetted (though the leadup question isn't quoted here, so it's slightly ambiguous):

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/06/08/could_kelly_ayottes_rapid_rise_lead_to_vp-full.html


Romney has chosen Cathy McMorris Rodgers as his liaison to the House GOP:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-congress/2012/06/romney-taps-mcmorris-rodgers-as-top-house-surrogate-125189.html

Whether you want to count that as an indication that she's more or less likely to be under consideration for VP is up to you.

lol Rand Paul. So much for following in Dad's footsteps.

Both Huckabee and Santorum say they have not been contacted by the Romney campaign for vetting:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/politico-live/2012/06/santo-no-background-documents-requested-for-veep-slot-125737.html

What is the deal with Mitch Daniels' wife?  Does she have a clouded past?  Is she simply adamant that Mitch become VP? 

I just don't understand what the comments I've read about her being a problem are referring to.  Many thanks.

Yes, she had an affair with another married man, divorced Mitch and left their 4 children to move to California with the man.  After five years, she moved back to Indiana and re-married Mitch.  Also, the boyfriend's now ex-wife hates Mrs. Daniels for ruining her life and will go nuclear on her in the press. 

Shock horror!

Though Huckster could be an OK choice if Romney feels he has major troubles with working-class voters.

I don't think rubio will be selected. Romney won't need him for florida because romney may already have florida in the bag according to most polls in florida.

race42012's source says it's down to four - Rubio, Jindal, Pawlenty, and McMorris-Rodgers

http://race42012.com/2012/06/10/the-race-4-2012-rumor-mill-final-four-edition

Who knows how credible or real it is but it's interesting to read nonetheless, and those four do make sense. Always thought Portman was overrated as a choice.

What's the hype with McMorris-Rogers?

She's a house member, she can't carry her own state, and she just seems inexperienced. Ayotte would've been a much better choice if he desperately wanted a woman.

I think Rubio is a reach and a desperate move for such a young person.  The media will see it as a desperate move to win Hispanics. 

It seems that it almost 99% going to be TPaw, and I think Romney will lose the election.  TPaw doesn't help with Virginia.  He might help in Minnesota and Michigan, but that's a real stretch.  I think Thune is way better, but Thune probably doesn't want it and is waiting for his turn in 2016. 

TPaw is super safe, and super forgettable.  He'll be the invisible man who can't hurt but can't help romney at all.  Biden and Obama will go hard at Romney, and TPaw will be shrinking flower. 

To be fair, she's not just a random House member. She's been serving longer than Michele Bachmann who for some reason accepted as a major presidential candidate at one point, as well as Geraldine Ferraro. She's also a member of the House Republican leadership and thus used to dealing with the national press and likely to be well-versed in contemporary issues, probably moreso than Kelly Ayotte who is more inexperienced despite her attractive qualities and advantage in possibly bringing NH to the GOP.

And for what it's worth, she kind of has a rags to riches personal story, a military husband, and a young child with Down's syndrome. She could be Sarah Palin with much more knowledge and much less controversy.

Not that she's the frontrunner, but she has some real advantages and would likely be acceptable to the establishment and the base once they get to know her. She's from a definite blue state, but picking running mates to carry swing states is an overrated concept in the modern era anyway.

NJ's rankings: Portman #1, T-Paw #2, Ryan #3.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/your-favorite-vice-hotline-s-veepstakes-power-rankings-20120610

It would surprise me if they've already narrowed the list down so far. But I guess it would sense to do that early and then spent the next couple weeks focusing only on the contenders with a legitament shot.

Dunno if they've narrowed it down, Romney won't make the pick for nearly 2 months. In the meantime- cavity search.

What if Romney picks someone boring how does it effect him?

I still fail to see why Pawlenty is better than someone like Thune or Burr. Regardless of what you think of Ryan's recent proposals, the man is too controversial to be Romney's VP pick.

Does anyone even like Pawlenty?  He has a constituency of zero.  I don't even think evangelicals like him that much.  Maybe I'll just call the Romney campaign and tell them it's an awful idea to pick Pawlenty.  I know Mitt is trying to win through default, just doing barely enough and cautiously enough to win 51% of the vote, but winning with such a weak VP makes Mitt look like a weak president.  Pawlenty is a virtual ghost on the campaign, and that's not because of his skin color, but the lack of excitement or strong stump speech he can generate among swing voters.  Pawlenty will get VP because he's sucking up to Romney and his inner circle, just like Dick Cheney with Dubya. 

Thune is the best pick from the eyes of the average Republican or swing voter.  But it seems that Thune and his advisors are ambivalent about being VP.  So, Romney is going to be an idiot and choose the person sucking up to him the most, instead of going out and convincing better candidates to join his ticket. 

I don't know why Burr is so quiet.  I would think he would be more ambitious and pro-active about getting VP.  He doesn't seem to be talking to any Romney advisors. 

Romney thinks he can be the next Reagan, but Reagan had more passion than 100 mitt bots.  Voters don't vote for resumes, they vote for passionate personality.

Pawlenty will not get Minnesota.

Is Portman really off the list?

Where did you get the idea that Portman's off? If GOP 12- LOL. Any report that the list doesn't include Portman and Ryan is probably junk IMO.

Of course, Romney may know something you don't.

Pawlenty would be a huge mistake. If the Supreme Court strikes down Obamacare, Romney should be getting a slight boost. With Pawlenty on the ticket, all Obama has to do is play Pawlenty's "Obamneycare" sound-bite.

I don't think Pawlenty is the frontrunner, though yeah, a couple of different sources have said that he's popular in Romney's inner circle.  National Journal mentioned it, as did Chuck Todd on MSNBC:

http://video.msnbc.msn.com/the-daily-rundown/47764844

Btw, McCain has floated Hoeven as a possible Romney running mate:

http://www.jamestownsun.com/event/article/id/162705/group/homepage/

but there's nothing to suggest that the campaign itself is considering him.

It's also interesting that North Carolina is the "audition state" for the VP prospects:

http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/06/hie-thee-to-north-carolina.php

Yeah I rate Hoeven as a good choice if Romney was to do a dark horse pick - although North Dakota isn't a swing state, he has experience as a governor and a Senator, and also was the head of a bank in North Dakota, giving him economic credibility. Isn't too conservative, and is surprisingly young despite experience.

But I don't see it happening.

I'm just puzzled as to why less experienced, younger politicians are getting so much press and attention from the Romney camp.  It seems like older, credible, and prominent politicians like Thune, Burr, and others are not even considered.  Maybe they have too many skeletons, but being a powerful respected voice is a good thing that can only come from years of public service.  Romney is too safe for his own good, he just barely won the nomination, and it looks like he is trying to squeak by the general election, and I think that's a weak move by him.  Dubya Bush can pull off close elections, but Romney can't. 

I think Pawlenty has always been the frontrunner in Romney's mind, at least as the safest default candidate.  TPaw is the safety school of VP candidates.  There are a lot of wildcard options and newish politicians like portman and rubio.  But as far as potential VP candidates from the batch of presidential debaters this year, its always been TPaw.  TPaw was the finalist to Palin in Mccain's camp.  For some reason, he is held in high esteem by certain gop campaign members.  He has an easy-going, pleasing personality.  He's young, mildly attractive.  He's very safe, like a naive younger brother. 

But I think Romney can do better in VP picks, but only if he wants to do better, and take a risk with someone more well-known, more established, but also his own man, and not a romney suck-up.  Americans don't want idiotic yes men, they want visionaries. 

I think Romney wants a safe anti-Palin; and TPaw is at the 50-50 mark that he is not as bad as Palin in experience or intelligence or scandals.  But being scandal-free should not be the only deciding point for a VP. 

I think Pawlenty is easily the frontrunner.  Romney campaign's risk averse, especially with economy soft.

Burr says he's not being vetted:

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/06/12/3312065/sen-richard-burr-im-not-being.html

An update on what kind of denials people are giving:

Refused to say whether or not they're being vetted (which means they probably are being vetted):

Jindal
Pawlenty
Portman
Rubio
Ryan

Initially said he wasn't being vetted, then sort of backtracked:

Thune

Seemed to deny that she was being vetted, but the quote in the media didn't give the full context of what was being asked, so it's slightly ambiguous:

Ayotte

Have said on the record that they're *not* being vetted:

Burr
Bush
Daniels
Haley
Huckabee
McDonnell
Santorum

No one's asked her recently if she's being vetted, but before the vetting started, she gave an unusually definitive sounding denial of interest in the vice presidency:

Martinez

As far as I can tell, no one has asked them directly any time recently if they're being vetted:

Christie
McMorris-Rodgers
Toomey
everyone else not on this list

This is no surprise (http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/scott-walker-wants-romney-choose-fellow-cheesehead-paul-150140470.html)

Speaking of which, Romney will join Ryan in Janesville on Monday.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/06/14/ryan_appearance_in_wis_to_highlight_romney_bus_tour_114481.html

Paul Ryan. Yes please.

Picking a leading member of Congress in this kind of climate doesn't seem like a particularly good idea.

Especially not one who authored a plan to end Medicare.

Hmm... so financially speaking, Portman and Ryan are the best off of Romney's probable shortlisters.

http://nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/potential-romney-running-mates-in-congress-underwater-20120614

NYT has a new veep selection story here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/18/us/politics/auditions-for-a-romney-running-mate.html?pagewanted=all


All of which suggests that Romney is unlikely to make a surprise pick.  Whoever he picks will be one of the names on shortlists being floated to the media before he makes things official.


Oh, and finally, this was an amusing tidbit about Christie:

Christie being fat, and now chronically late, suggests a lack of personal discipline. (I am assuming that what Christie does with his mouth, with sometimes gets edgy, is calculated.) Granted being a late fat fit Clinton as well (granted more late, and less fat), which lack of personal discipline hurt him of course, but he had compensating qualities. Christie and Mittens would certainly make an odd couple - one that is almost certainly not in the cards.

More on today's Waukeshan event.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/06/18/romney_joins_wisconsin_republicans_in_show_of_force_114512.html

Rubio is not being vetted, per Jon Karl.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/06/marco-rubio-not-being-vetted-to-be-mitt-romneys-running-mate/

Don't have a link, but Daniels has agreed to become President of Purdue University. He's out of the running.

WaPo suggests that Portman is still the frontrunner but that Pawlenty, Ryan, Jindal are also in the mix.

https://ssl.washingtonpost.com/actmgmt/registration/login/long?appnid=politics&destination=http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/sources-say-rubio-isnt-getting-seriously-vetted-by-romney-campaign/2012/06/19/gJQAUq19nV_story.html

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/19/romney-says-rubio-is-being-examined-as-possible-running-mate/


I think this is the first time Romney himself (or anyone in his inner circle, for that matter) has publicly commented on who's being vetted.  Of course, it doesn't necessarily mean that he's telling the truth!

Here is Politico on the Rubio story:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/06/romney-rubios-being-vetted-126681.html

In brief, both ABC News and the WaPo reported that Rubio wasn't being vetted for VP.  Then the media started asking Romney about that, and he refused to comment.  Then a few hours later, Romney reversed course, and decided to confirm that Rubio is in fact being vetted.  Here is what Romney now says:


Politico suggests that the campaign was forced to say on the record that Rubio was being vetted, because they don't want to risk doing harm among Hispanic voters.  But who knows.

Meanwhile, Pawlenty fever sweeps the land.  Race42012's supposed Romney insider source predicts that Pawlenty will be Romney's choice for veep:

http://race42012.com/2012/06/19/the-race-4-2012-rumor-mill-final-2012-gop-veepstakes-edition/

And Politico does a story on why Pawlenty is ascendent in the veepstakes:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0612/77619.html

Most amusing detail from that story: Pawlenty is a regular guy because he drives his own car:


Anyway, the article does a good job of presenting the case for Pawlenty.  I'm starting to lean that way in my own predictions, for the record.  I could definitely see Pawlenty getting the nod.

In other news, I'm seeing more and more stories discussing the possibility of Romney naming his running mate in July, rather than waiting until August.  It might happen.  Particularly if it's someone boring like Pawlenty or Portman, who you're not expecting to get a big bounce from anyway, the timing doesn't matter as much, so you might as well get it over with, and have someone else to help you campaign and raise money.

The Olympics is July 27 - August 12.  So if the announcement is being made in July, I guess it would probably be mid-July.  I doubt it would happen a week or less before the Olympics.

CBS has this to say about the short list:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57456927-503544/whos-still-in-the-running-to-be-romneys-running-mate/


They also link to a video showing Ayotte denying that she's been contacted by the Romney campaign for vetting.  (Her earlier comment on this seemed more ambiguous, because the quote was truncated.)

So, for the record, the list of people who've said that they have *not* been contacted by the Romney campaign for vetting info, who have not ended up backtracking (so far):

Ayotte
Burr
Bush
Daniels
Haley
Huckabee
McDonnell
Santorum

Wait, did Thune un-deny? I remember he was vehemently saying that they weren't vetting him a while ago.

Yes, he did un-deny.  His new line is:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-06-13/john-thune-romney-vice-president/55586686/1


His initial denial was just a couple of days after the Romney campaign started sending out questionnaires to the candidates, so it's possible they just hadn't gotten to him yet.

Ah, OK. Thanks.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/06/romneys-great-utah-adventure-the-guest-list-and-schedule-leaks-out/

Rubio's not going to the fundraiser, which means he realizes he won't be picked (or considered).  I don't think Rubio even wants to give up his financial information to future campaign staff rivals in 2016.  Its a lose-lose scenario for him to go through with the vetting. 

The real VP pick will be at this fundraiser getting face time with Romney.  I think the finalists will be Pawlenty, Portman, and Thune.  I'm really surprised Thune is getting no media coverage, but maybe thats just what he wants.  I feel in the end, it will be Portman because Ohio is a must-win.

Yeah, it's looking increasingly like Rubio is out of consideration.

Pawlenty?

He's coming.

No surprise if true.

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/303798/ryan-being-vetted-vp-robert-costa

Rubio is an interesting public figure, no doubt.  But the VP pick?  No.  Romney will pick someone who will be able to step into the Presidency if necessary, and be an able President.  Rubio hardly fits that requirement at this time.

I'm telling you, the pick is going to be Rob Portman.  He has the experience, the capability, and the smarts, and he even looks Vice Presidential, and Presidential for that matter.

So you've given up on Lindsay Graham?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=109384.msg2328874#msg2328874

For sure.  A lot changes in 2 1/2 years.

The man is Portman.

rob portman
john thune
tim pawlenty  (obamneycare)
 

I think it will be Portman in the end, because Romney needs to win Ohio, and he can use Portman's network and GOTV volunteers to accomplish that.  This could also spread to parts of Michigan, which is north of Ohio; and maybe to western PA.  In addition, northern virginians may like Portman as one of them (ie, a government worker bee).   

I think Thune is in a tough spot, he's only 51, so he's waiting for either 2016 or 2020 for his shot at the white house.  In 2016, it would likely be a Jeb Bush/Thune ticket if Romney loses.  If Romney wins, then in 2020, Thune will face Portman and Rubio in the presidential primaries.  Thune would easily win the Iowa primaries being so close. 

I don't know.  I think the fact that Thune passed on a presidential run in 2012 means that he probably doesn't care so much about becoming president.  He might simply be as happy to become Senate Majority Leader as he would to become president.

No link, but my sources out in Utah said Condi Rice was the star of Romney's speech, receiving a standing ovation. I expect her name to start being floated around more.

That might be true, but he passed on 2012 because of the TARP votes and at the time, the Tea Partiers had a lot of power.  Even thinking about running means that at least 1% of his mind would like to be president some day.  It all comes down to timing and guts.  In eight years, Portman would be oldish, and easy to beat.  He would also run in 4 years on his own or as VP. 

I hope. She would be a fantastic pick. Her pro-choice stance isn't exactly one I agree with, but she's content to accept pro-life politics. And... people in the rust belt will take kindly to a moderate, well-spoken woman. I think Condi is the only real trump card left in this game.

She's said ad infinitum that she's an academic, not a politician. Bush's SoS whose tenure is controversial even among conservatives and a self-admitted moderate on the issues. Portman has a similar problem- closely tied to Bush when Obama's been running against GWB on and off for 5 years. I could see her being asked for FP advice once in a while or maybe PFAIB if Romney wins, but that's about it.

You don't  think romney may just choose someone thats not part of washington? I'm thinking he may now

We must remember that Romney himself is not 'part of Washington', though certainly not for lack of trying to be.

This article by CBS claims that Cathy McMorris Rodgers recently told National Journal that she's not being vetted, but I can't find the original reporting by National Journal:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57456390-503544/veep-question-of-the-day-whos-being-vetted/

Also, the veepstakes reaches self-parody as 1.5 term Rep. Tom Graves of Georgia refuses to say whether he's being vetted:

http://www.ajc.com/news/georgia-politics-elections/graves-mum-amid-vp-1463348.html

CMR was named House liaison a while back.

Yep.  I posted on that a couple of weeks ago:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=154106.msg3322775#msg3322775

Rice said this just this morning:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kNS_-6DVMWQ&feature=player_embedded

We've all obviously forgotten this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4R3-ig-ohM

That goes against the GOP's "Obama the superstar" meme. And many GOPers wouldn't be happy with an African American on the ticket, let's be honest here.

That is possibly the largest insult I've ever seen wrapped up so nicely in a nonchalant post.

Just a question:

How many points would Rice be leading President Obama by if she were the presumptive nominee?

I'm going to say it would be around 49-44.

McDonnell reverses course on the vetting question.  In the early days after the vetting began, McDonnell says that he hadn't been contacted by the Romney campaign.  Now he refuses to comment:

http://www.wtop.com/120/2919120/Virginia-governor-shifts-tone-might-be-vetted-for-VP

So the list of people who currently refuse to comment on whether they're being vetted:

Jindal
McDonnell
Pawlenty
Portman
Rubio
Ryan
Thune
Tom Graves (?)

Also, as far as I can tell, no one's asked Christie if he's being vetted.....which seems rather strange.

Google's new Veepstakes page tracks web trends for some of the likely veep contenders:

http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/veepstakes

Another day, another veep denial from Condoleeza Rice (though this one actually leaves some slight wiggle room.....not that she'll be picked anyway):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37Jtiv8lOmY&feature=player_embedded

He's being vetted, so obviously is at least willing to entertain the idea.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/06/27/paul_ryan_aiming_for_ways__means_instead_of_vp___114623.html

If Paul Ryan wants to be president some day, he'll need to run for Senate or Governor.  Kohl is retiring so he should have run to replace him.  I guess he could run for governor after Walker.

Budget/W&M has much more power than a freshman senator does.

Ryan's power is mostly a function of his superior knowledge, based on his superior knowledge of economics and mathematics.

Governor and President have more power than that.

A fun retrospective on VP denials from elections past:

http://www.npr.org/2012/06/27/155848653/translating-the-veepstakes

Ayotte is marching with Romney tomorrow.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/03/12544053-more-clues-emerge-in-veepstakes?lite

Doubtful Jindal's on the list.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/07/05/romneys_vp_short_list_it_may_be_down_to_four_114698.html

Ann Romney is saying Mitt is thinking of picking a woman: http://washington.cbslocal.com/2012/07/05/romneys-wife-says-woman-being-eyed-for-ticket/

With what Roguebeaver posted yesterday I'd guess he's looking hard at Ayotte.

"Marco Rubio is being thoroughly vetted." Same thing. It would be way OOC for Romney to shortlist a Northeastern 20-monther who barely escaped a TP challenge in her primary 2 years ago.

Again I find myself agreeing with Halperin.

http://thepage.time.com/2012/07/04/superfriends/

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/07/05/romneys_vp_short_list_it_may_be_down_to_four_114698.html

It's only about T-Paw, Portman, Ryan and Jindal, according to RCP.

Ayotte, McDonnell and Rubio as dark horses, but a short list is a short list...

Jindal-Pawlenty head-to-head veep-athon in Ohio:

http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/07/rating-the-jindalpawlenty-veep.php

Makes for a good show, but Portman is as we speak working on his VP acceptance speech for Tampa.

An invasion!

...of boring...

A staff is already being assembled for the eventual nominee, per WaPo. Announcement this month?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/romney-in-final-stages-of-veepstakes-is-weighing-when-to-pick-running-mate/2012/07/08/gJQAfTsaWW_story.html

Maybe he will do it before he goes overseas

Shouldn't he want to be able to announce his VP and then have them campaign together for 2-3 weeks, rather than skipping town?

Besides, I think he should keep up the whole Avengers thing he's got going with Portman/Rubio/Ryan/Christie/Jindal/Ayotte/Pawlenty.  Especially since there's generally a clear line between the popular, attention-grabbing group (Rubio, Ayotte, Christie) and the RCP short-list.

I still think it's gonna be Paul Ryan.

Romney has absolutely no reason to announce his VP pick until the last possible moment. I'd be surprised if he announced within the next month.

Sure he does.  He may be able to get the current short-listers to campaign for him as surrogates, but they're not doing it at nearly the same pace as any of them would after being officially named as his running mate.  If he picks someone now, then he'll have a new full-time candidate to help campaign around the country and raise money.

NRO feature on Portman.

http://www.nationalreview.com/blogs/print/304969

Historically, candidates have waited until the cusp of the convention to announce their VP choices:

()

Will the advantage that comes with having a second full-time campaigner make enough of a difference to Romney that he'll buck this trend?

I'm inclined to think that the actual vetting is done and what's left is selection, or at least 90% of the vetting is done. Certainly that would be the case if he's going to make an announcement in the next 3 weeks.

I don't know.  Maybe.  We'll find out soon enough, since there's not that much time before the Olympics.

But keep in mind: 1) If Romney is going to pick someone "boring" like Portman or Pawlenty, then he's not likely to get a bump out of the announcement anyway, no matter when the announcement is made.  So then there really would be no point in waiting, and 2) The national conventions have been getting later since about 2004 or so (note how many of the dates you give above are in July).  So yes, historically candidates have waited until the convention to announce their pick.  But that usually hasn't meant waiting until the last week of August, barely more than two months before general election, and little more than a month before the VP candidate is expected to debate.

The argument that I've heard is that waiting allows the Romney camp to amass more information about a presumptive pick (as the Obama campaign and the media investigate everyone who is being speculated on), and that because of this there's no point in going public earlier than he must.

With Romney using the short list on the stump already, there is no advantage in making a final pick before the Olympics, so I now think he'll wait till August.  If I'm wrong and he does announce before the Olympics, it'll be next week.

Assuming there is more vetting to be done.  None of us is inside the Romney campaign, so we don't know how far along the vetting is.  They may well already have all the information they're ever going to get, so there's nothing to be gained from waiting longer.  Or maybe not.  We just don't know.

Also, yes, he's already using the short list on the stump.  But not as much as a full time running mate would.  And a Rob Portman or whoever else it might be just isn't going to attract nearly as much attention on the stump before he's named as the VP nominee in waiting.

Ramesh Ponnuru makes another point about not waiting if the pick is boring, though I think this is secondary:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-25/who-should-romney-pick-for-vice-president-.html

I find Condoleezza Rice incredibly intriguing.  Smart, educated, experienced, incredible foreign policy credentials, which Romney lacks.

I know she is pro choice, however, I believe the Reublican base would still vote for Romney with Rice on the ticket regardless.  They certainly are not going to vote for Obama.

She is clearly not a "boring white guy."  She is incredibly exciting and highly qualified.  I know her Bush ties may be a drawback to some, but she is her own person, and would excite independents, moderates, and swing voters.     

http://news.yahoo.com/condoleezza-rice-speech-stirs-vice-presidential-talk-140316502.html

“Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice delivered a 15-minute luncheon speech on foreign and domestic policy Saturday that donors described as electrifying and had attendees on their feet twice,” said Rucker. “One donor said Rice was ‘the star of the show,’ while another said that, if it was a vice presidential tryout, ‘she hit it out of the park.’”

She would be amazing. That's why I don't see it happening.

Yes, she's intelligent, capable, and would be a daring, outside-the-box choice for Republican VP.  But in addition to being pro-choice (which by itself is a deal breaker for large portions of the Republican base), she's also black and single.

While I have no doubt that that there are large numbers of Republicans for whom none of those are a problem, I expect that a very significant proportion of the base views one or all of them as complete non-starters.  I think that picking Rice would easily lead to, say 5% of the base choosing to stay home, which would be devastating, not just for Romney's presidential chances, but for down-ticket races as well.

Portman confirmed he's being vetted. Isn't that kinda breaking the rules? :P

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/07/veepstakes-portman-met-with-romney-aides/

If Rice were pro-life, she'd be a homerun pick.

As it stands, it comes down to whether the risk is worth the reward. GOP turnout may be slightly lower, however, could it be made up in moderate voters? I'm not sure if Romney is willing to take that risk, especially since he can win with a boring pick.

He simply confirmed that he'd had six meetings with Romney campaign people in a span of six hours.  That could be for anything, no?  :P

As much as I love Condi, and as brilliant and qualified as she is, I think we all know that Mitt is not going to take that extraordinary risk of picking a pro life candidate.

A Romney Rice ticket and administration would be my dream for America though.

My thoughts. America needs Romney/Rice. Between Romney's brilliance on economics and Rice's brilliance on foreign policy, those two would easily have one of the best administrations we've had, and would heal many of our problems.

Agreed, but I think we all know she won't be the VP nominee, unfortunately.  But President Romney could call upon her to accept the office of Secretary of State yet again. 

I've given a little thought to who our cabinet will be - She'd be excellent. I also would be happy with Senator Lugar, despite his age. It's a shame - she'd do much better than Portman will do as our VP.

Maybe Condi can run after Mitt's 8 years are up? She wouldn't be too old.

Whoa there cowboy, don't count your horses before they get to the stable. My guess is Romney-Pawlenty. I wouldnt go about picking a cabinet yet, but Luger would be great at the state dept. or defense dept. Condi would only further the Obama message of taking us back to Bush (I.E. illegal Iraq War, failure in Afganistan). And 8 years of Mitt? My guess is, if the Governor manages to eek out a victory in November, in the words of Rupert Mourdoch "Doubtful", Clinton/Scweitzer would swamp Romney in 2016. And I'm talking 400 or more EVs.
()
Clinton-Scweitzer 438
Romney-Pawlenty 100

You fail to realize that Mitt Romney will actually fix America's problems in four years. So I can't take your predicition seriously.

:P

Re: Romney/Rice... it would be a dream, and I think it would step the GOP in the right direction. Say what you want about Condoleeza Rice, but one thing she isn't is a nutjob. And while the "nutjob" criticism seems childish, it's a serious threat to the GOP. Ask moderates what they thought about guys like Santorum, and I bet the nutjob word comes up a few times. Personal feelings aside, Condi as Romney's running mate would immediately tell America that Romney is ready to run a serious administration with an exponentially qualified Vice President. And moderates would go crazy for her.

Palin predicts that Romney will pick a running mate who isn't like Palin:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=-zoBEZEeEeU

No, you fail to realize that No One, could've fixed this mess in 4 years. If Romney had won back in 2008, most likely he'd be in the same position Obama is in right now, with the exception he'd probably have a much stronger opponent, I.E. Clinton, Scweitzer, O'Malley, or Cuomo.

Now we're back to "no timeline." Looking increasingly unlikely the announcement will be made within the next week, pre-Olympics.

http://video.msnbc.msn.com/mitchell-reports/48150922

What an absolutely ridiculously hackish map.

And some have called me a hack.

My friend, any acts of  hackishness I may have committed pales in comparison to the hatchet job you have done on anything resembling reality or common sense.

I feel as if I may have accomplished something by being called a hack by THE WINFIELD. Let me explain my map. Hispanics will help the Dems carry Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, and Florida. Blacks, angry at Romney about beating Obama, will help them carry North Carolina, South Carolina,  and Georgia. Clinton is still EXTREMELY popular in the South and Rust Belt(more so than Romney), and Scweitzer will give us Montana. And Clinton, who won New Hampshire in 08 and was a Senator from NY, will lock up the NorthEast.

The American electorate is far too polarized to produce this map anytime in the near future.

Wrong subforum, methinks.

Fresh denials of vetting on Jeb Bush, Nikki Haley, and Rick Santorum:

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/election/2012/07/10/haley-bush-reportedly-not-vetted-for-vp-spot/

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/09/santorum-romney-hasnt-called-for-me-vp-vetting/

Christie refuses to say whether he's being vetted:

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/07/christie_says_he_doesnt_think.html

Current list of people who refuse to say whether they're being vetted:

Christie
Jindal
McDonnell
Pawlenty
Portman
Rubio
Ryan
Thune
Tom Graves

i think huckabee should get a look at. Conservative and from the south

Drudge has some big headline out. What's it mean?

He needs to boost his ad revenue.

If I had an Intrade account I would put some dollars on Huckabee.

Should have said Condi.

This is just a head fake. No way does Romney pick a moderate with no elective experience and closer Bush ties than anyone not named Bush.

They're saying Condi Rice might be a front runner for VP.

Condi, eh? Well, this could be very interesting...

I doubt it, but if true, not a good move for Romney. Pro-choice and obviously very connected to the Bush administration. Going for Portman or Pawlenty is smarter. If they didn't want a boring white guy, go for Ayotte or Martinez or Rubio. Hell, go for Christie even. A lot of risks there, but they'd rile the right more than Condi.

Along with news that Condi is now emerging as the frontrunner for the Vice Presidential nomination, the Romney campaign dropped this bombshell on us:

"The news came as the Romney campaign confirmed for the first time that a choice would be made before the Republican National Convention."


http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/237701-report-condoleezza-rice-emerges-as-frontrunner-for-romney-vp (http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/237701-report-condoleezza-rice-emerges-as-frontrunner-for-romney-vp)


Oh, wow. Maybe this is being done because the running mate would have to be nominated...?

I got that email today and laughed. It was entitled Mitt's VP and immediately said he would announce his pick between now and the convention. What a shock!

Wow.

Didn't Romney say he wasn't going to pick a dark horse?

I'd be surprised considering I thought he wanted a boring white male. Condi is definitely better than Palin but I'm not sure how the base will react to him picking a black, unmarried, pro-choice woman with a PhD with close ties to the Bush Administration.

I really don't think it'll be Condi.

If this were true, wow...

I think this could be a killer ticket - just need to find a way to shore up conservatives.

Are we sure that Drudge's tipster wasn't Winfield?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6r4mqNmjXo&feature=relmfu (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6r4mqNmjXo&feature=relmfu)

A sample of Rice's denials of interest from as recently as a few weeks ago:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/07/drudge-report-lists-condi-rice-as-top-romney-vp-candidate/

Could be serious.  Could be a test to see if pro-choice is a dealbreaker for the base (if I remember correctly from Game Change, the McCain campaign floated Ridge because they were considering Lieberman).  Could be "Mitt Romney is seriously considering a black woman, see, Republicans aren't racist or sexist".

Rudy Giuliani?

Dunno what's up with Jon Karl but putting Rubio and Ayotte ahead of Ryan/Jindal/ or even Generic R Thune? Really?

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS/jonathan-karls-list-vp-field-july-portman-pawlenty-rubio/story?id=16354225#

A Democratic Super PAC has spent months compiling oppo research on three of the leading contenders: Pawlenty, Portman, and Rubio:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/07/exclusive-democrats-dump-opposition-research-on-top-vice-presidential-contenders/?=id2


VeepMistakes.com won't load for me.

In any case, they apparently have 350 pages of files on Portman, 492 on Pawlenty, and 555 on Rubio.

So they spent millions of dollars to vet the candidates for Romney? I don't see why they were dumb enough to release this before Romney announces.

I looked through ABC's summary, all "sensationally headlining gruel" sort of stuff. Just like those accidentally uploaded DCCC oppo files on West, Hayworth and others now available on Breitbart.

Rubio.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B_NkYNDmtdwcX3VLazA1OFBORkk/edit?pli=1

Pawlenty.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/99534475/American-Bridge-Pawlenty-Book

Portman.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/99516970/American-Bridge-Portman-Book

But I'm sure Romney's team hasn't found all this stuff already... thanks, whoever did it. :D

My only surprise is that they didn't try Jindal or Ryan.

Regarding the Condoleezza Rice rumor...I should point out that just in the last few weeks, Rice has started to become more politically active.  She did her first ever fundraising event last month (for "ShePAC", a pro-GOP women's group):

http://www.politico.com/politicoinfluence/0612/politicoinfluence284.html

then followed that up with a fundraiser for Romney.  She's also endorsed several candidates in GOP primaries this cycle:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/236727-condaleeza-rice-endorses-ben-quayle-in-member-member-race

Maybe the Drudge rumor came from people in Rice's political orbit, who think she'd benefit from veep speculation.  Exactly what her ultimate goal is here, though, I don't know.

Conflicting date hints.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/14/romney-talks-vp-prospects-in-e-mail-to-supporters/

I'm reminded of Jon Huntsman's quixotic, consultant-driven presidential campaign. Could she be angling for a think-tank appointment or SoS? (I don't think there's any reason to believe that media chatter would make a significant difference in bringing this about.) Could she be considering a challenge to Blumenthal in 2016? (That might be a competitive race, but she's always claimed to have no interest in seeking elected office.)

It came from Park City donors, Boston forwarded the rumors to Drudge as a false flag to distract from this Bain mess. Rice has no interest in elective office- and she's definitely not head-butting CA's PVI wall in a Senate race.

Oh, Christ. I thought that she taught at Yale. Embarrassing. Never mind.

Anyway, while it's clear that the Rice chatter might be a Romney-led attempt to distract from the Bain mess, there's enough evidence to suggest that Morden's speculation is plausible.

On FTN just now, Paul Ryan didn't deny that he was being vetted when Schieffer asked him.

:D

While I certainly share the sentiment, we've known that for quite a while now. Question is who shows up besides Romney in [insert swing-state rally here] either this week or sometime in August.

My biggest thing with Condi Rice is that she's not from a swing state. California won't be in play for Republicans for years. I'm really, really partial to candidates from a swing state. People like Ryan, Portman or even Marco Rubio.

See, I think it's wiser to choose someone who will elevate the ticket in general, not someone who will give Romney a few temporary brownie points in a certain state.

That would be almost as good as Condi Rice (for the president's reelection, that is ;) )

Is Rice 'really' from California or Alabama?

Never mind. It doesn't matter. The same statement is true in opposite directions for both. That much being said, I agree with Hagrid on the whole fetishization of running mates from swing states thing.

She's spent most of her academic career in CA but was raised in AL.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6_mWlAOLn0

She gave a terrible interview on ABC. Does this take her out of the running for VP?

I don't think she was ever truly in it. Still think it'll be Portman.

I never considered her likely but this just seals the deal. I stick to my prediction with Paul Ryan.

What both Ray and NVGonzalez said. She was never really in it, and I'm sticking to my Paul Ryan prediction.

Ughck. That was horrendous. The inexperienced female pick has gotta be Martinez, not Ayotte. They don't even compare.

If Romney ever thought she'd be good he's a lunatic. No one wants a SECOND New England moderate. Not to mention she brings a whole lot of baggage from her prosecution years past. She's inexperienced. As stated, if you want a woman who was just elected Martinez is the choice.

I can't stand women with voices that sound as if they are going to cry at the drop of a hat...   

A-Bob: What baggage would that be? She served under a Dem guv who has publicly praised her AG performance in the past...

Hagrid: Romney isn't picking a 18-monther regardless of their gender. Plus Martinez is also centre-right last I heard, a Republican can't get elected statewide otherwise.

Nah, I know she's not gonna be chosen. But I believe Martinez is a rare example of a pick who would surpass expectations. She's high-calibre, and I hope she's got a bright future in the party.

So, any predictions as to when the announcement will be? I'm hoping this week. Little choice if he wants it pre-convention since next week will be drowned out by the Olympics.

My guess would be that Mitt Romney himself will announce his VP choice during his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention.  

The way these things tend to work, we'd likely hear some kind of pre-announcement rumors or hints about the announcement taking place at a particular location and time, probably at least three days in advance.  So the fact that we haven't heard any such thing yet, means that we've probably already run out of time pre-Olympics.

Maybe the announcement will be on Thursday of this week or something, but that's probably the limit, before it makes sense to delay until before the Olympics.  It's not going to be made on a weekend, unless the weekend is immediately before the convention, and next week Monday we're just a couple of days before Romney leaves for Europe.

It'll be a couple days before the convention as per convention. Can't imagine it's not Pawlenty.  I guess Portman is possible.

NYT on T-Paw. Don't think Romney is going to pick someone who got left at the altar last time. Plus Romney wants an attack dog, which Pawlenty is not.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/16/us/politics/pawlenty-looked-at-as-romney-running-mate.html?pagewanted=all

Bad, though of course it doesn't match the ultimate veep implosion from four years ago:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0b59Jlbq1M

Thune admits that he's been to Boston to meet with Romney senior advisors, including Beth Myers:

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/237983-thune-rising-gop-senator-on-romney-veepstakes-and-his-future

He won't directly say if he's being vetted, but there aren't a whole lot of other reasons to meet with Beth Myers, since she's basically doing full time veep vetting.

The most interesting thing in that story is this:

So, Thune is probably the VP choice. Not bad. Better than Ryan, T-Paw, Portman and Condi, IMHO.

It won't be a dark horse, and Thune is the darkest of dark horses. I get a sinking feeling it might be T-Paw, but he's neither an attack dog nor a base-juicer. Still have my fingers crossed.

The New York Times reports that friends of Romney claim he has decided on a running mate and may announce his choice this week.

Hopefully it's Ryan, although I have my doubts.

A joint fundraiser with Jindal today has stoked some speculation, though highly doubtful.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303612804577529033908930986.html

I really don't see how one clue points to a certain contender over another. There's a bunch of crap flying around, and the honest truth is, we have no idea who it's gonna be.

You can't precisely call it, but historical precedent is a pretty good guide. That's how I arrived at my Palin prediction in '08 well before it was fashionable. Precedent (Dole, GHWB, Quayle, Kemp, Palin) suggests Romney selects a younger person from another wing of the party. So I'd be surprised if it was someone other than Pawlenty or Ryan.

Race 4 2012 ranks Jindal ahead of Portman and Ryan but that makes no sense. Can't see Romney picking someone he barely knows.

http://race42012.com/2012/07/16/vp-power-rankings-july/

^^^

Apparently Drudge is now saying it's T-Paw?

http://politicker.com/2012/07/matt-drudge-names-another-potential-romney-veep-pick/

Either way, it looks like we might be close to hearing something. If the Romney camp is leaking its top few choices to see how they go over, we're nearing the finish line.

Personally, Pawlently is probably the most anti-exciting choice he could possibly make. At least Portman doesn't look like a whiney pony. Pawlenty would be a big disappointment.

Drudge is more likely a false-flag given his ties to Boston and Condi stuff last week. Plus he's gotten just about every Veep wrong on both sides- in 2008 he called Bayh as Obama's running mate and either Romney or Pawlenty as McCain's, just to name one cycle.

If that is the case, out of the usual suspects, I think Thune has the biggest difference with Mitt.  He's evangelical and has served in Congress. 

Portman is also a Congressional insider, but doesn't have much of a voter bloc outside of Ohio. 

I'm not sure about Jindal, he's still very young, Catholic, and I don't think he has a voter bloc outside of LA.  He wouldn't appeal to hispanics. 

The other option would choosing a Woman or a Hispanic Woman. 

I wonder if this tax return/Bain stuff is forcing Romney to come out with his running mate earlier than he would have liked. This is getting awfully close to the Olympics and his Europe trip. But it sure looks like we could be hearing something soon.

It explains the contradictions we've been getting from his campaign.

Thune is not going to juice the base, has done no surrogacy for Romney and has never met Romney one-on-one so far as we know. An establishmentarian who won't juice the base and has never been publicly vetted. Not happening.

The first rumors about an early pick were what, 5-6 weeks ago for a search process that began 3 months ago? Plus all the shortlisters have been publicly vetted (and in Pawlenty's case, privately) to at least some extent, making her job easier.

Fehrnstrom denied, per CNN, that Romney has already decided. Didn't deny that the pick might be this week.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/16/romney-aide-no-decision-on-running-mate/

Race 4 2012 claims the rollout is this week.

http://race42012.com/2012/07/16/the-race-4-2012-rumor-mill-back-end-edition/

Yeah, they point out that Romney has nothing on his schedule on Thursday and Friday.  Which, AFAIK, is true, as of now.  Politico's calendar has him campaigning in Bowling Green, Ohio on Wednesday, but then nothing on Thursday.  If anyone notices anything being scheduled for Romney for Thursday or beyond, then post it here.  For that matter, anything scheduled for any of the presumed short-listers.

And the AP has this:

link (http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jk4P498KuTldA0kc8PtE7GhpMdhA?docId=99b8b9d32ad344c4b80af06a19429bf6)


Also, on the Thune being vetted thing, the full context of his remarks don't sound as enticing as the earlier soundbite:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/07/thune-not-actually-such-a-vp-tease-129109.html

Thune was always implausible. Personally I still think the final 2 are Pawlenty/Ryan, down to a knife blade.

Reuters claims the finalists are Portman/Pawlenty/Jindal, but again Jindal makes no sense because he hasn't spent any time with Romney. Romney won't pick someone he barely knows.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/16/us-usa-campaign-romney-vicepresident-idINBRE86F1BM20120716

Ah, thanks for the update. Honestly, I just want it to be anyone but Pawlenty.

AND Jindal supported Rick Perry... I don't think Romney is the kind of person who'd choose a runningmate who supported a rival, an "enemy". I still think it'll be Thune or Pawlenty. Pawlenty is boring, but Portman is even more boring than Romney. And Thune looks a little like Romney (the latter being uglier than the senator).

Hagrid: Same here. Not that he's bad, but just so MEH. Still holding out hope for Ryan.

Julio: He said plenty of nice things about Romney before Perry entered and never criticized Romney. But they never connected for whatever reason, so he's not on the shortlist.

National Journal has their latest (possibly last) veepstakes rankings:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/your-favorite-vice-hotline-s-veepstakes-power-rankings-20120716

Doubt Rubio is either a quarterfinalist or finalist (except for keynote), otherwise agreed.

Please don't let it be Pawlenty. I'm surprised that Ryan has made it this far. I wouldn't count Rubio out yet, either.

Some schedules this week for three of the most mentioned names:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/zekejmiller/portman-keeps-vague-ohio-schedule-friday

Pawlenty: Scheduled to be in Minnesota for the rest of this week.

Portman: In Washington on Wednesday & Thursday.  "Portman spokesman Jeff Sadosky added to BuzzFeed that he will be in Northwest Ohio on Friday for a mix of official and non-official events."

Rubio: In Washington all week for votes.

While veep fever has picked up a bit, I don't think it's quite reached the frenzy that it did in the final days before both McCain and Obama's picks four years ago.  I remain somewhat skeptical that it's going to be announced this week.  If we don't have a specific time and place for the announcement announced or leaked to the media by this afternoon, then I don't think it's going to happen this week (which means that it won't happen until after the Olympics).

I mean, it's got to take more than a day to throw together a veep rollout campaign event.  Some of the details of the announcement event would have to leak out more than a day in advance.

Romney has announced the senior VP staff.

http://race42012.com/2012/07/17/romney-announces-vice-presidentd-staff/

Can anyone put up the full article? Thx.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/18/us/politics/romney-vice-presidential-search-began-months-ago.html?gwh=E93A55FCE987AD87C3257E64BB5BF0D8&pagewanted=all

Ryan is the best spokesman for Romney, the best communicator, and probably the smartest (in some ways) guy on the short list. 

The number one problem for Romney his entire political career has been letting his opponent define him.  Ryan is the perfect guy to counter punch everything thrown at him and replace the smears with a better image.         

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-3460_162-57472590/rep-ryan-obama-is-dividing-distracting-the-country/?tag=untagged

Can only hope Romney sees it that way.

I'm still putting my money on Ryan.

Does anyone know Ryan's approval numbers in Wisconsin?

44/39 last I heard and according to PPP he does give Romney Cheesehead lift. (50/43 to 47/46, IIRC) Has both the Beltway crowd and the grassroots, whereas Pawlenty only has the Beltway.

Ah, I see. I think Romney knows he needs to win Wisconsin if he wants to contend. If Ryan gives him a boost, then there's no doubt in my mind that he'd pick anyone else.

If Romney needs to win Wisconsin to even contend, this race is over.

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2012/07/paul-ryan-rips-obamas-comment-that-if-youve-got-a-business-you-didnt-build-that-somebody-else-made-that-happen/

Ryan is always the best at this type of thing.  I read the commonplace line: 

The way he says it (and carefully thinks about it) you realize that Obama really is extremely lazy.  He never engages in honest debate.  He never engages in energetic debate.  Obama is without a doubt intellectually Lazy.  Just a perfect point made in the "filler" of the comments.         

WI pads the margin, but it isn't 270. (more like 28/9x) VA is a much likelier contender for that role. If he's it, home state lift will be just a bonus.

Paywalls are irritating, but don't ask people here to violate copyright, OK?

Romney/Ryan can pull out these minimal paths pretty simply. 

()
269 - 250

()
270 - 259

OH and VA, probably in that order IMO, would topple first. Anyhoo, wrong thread for electoral maps. :P

Apparently page 2 of that article says that Pawlenty and Portman are the finalists with Ryan and Jindal as dark horses. Yet I'm still unconvinced for all the reasons I've said before.

Pawlenty:

The buzz is too loud and it makes no sense for the pick to be publicly named before the actual rollout. Plus his debate bombing- not just Obamneycare but losing to Michele Bachmann. If you can't beat Bachmann how are you going to fare against Joe Biden? Bob Costa at NRO said one of Romney's criteria is attack dog. Pawlenty perfectly fits Healey's description of Howe: "like being savaged by a dead sheep."


Portman:

1) Flunked the chem test.

2) Bushier than any Bushie not named Bush, as I said in the other thread.

Oh, and apparently Christie and Pawlenty will be holding a joint fundraiser for Romney next week.

Money quote from Costa's interview with Romney:

Question: If Romney announces this week, will the running mate go with him to the Olympics?

If I was Romney, I'd leave him/her behind to fundraise and make media appearances.

No, they're doing what Hagrid said.

In any case, there are a million ways to get around the NYT paywall.  Just reset NYT cookies:

http://www.labnol.org/internet/nyt-paywall/18992/

Or even just use a different browser, and you'll get past their 20 articles a month limit.

I think Ryan is probably the best choice.

The Dems will rip Romney and Ryan on the Medicare Budget. And there are contradictions in his voting record, seeing he voted for the deficit ballooning Bush Tax Cuts, Iraq War, and Prescription Drug benefit while proposing cuts to Medicare and turning Social Security into a voucher program. Id say McDonnel wouldve been good before the whole Vaginal Probing thing. Now I believe Thune or Pawlenty might be the best choices. This article does a good job of displaying the veeps's strengths and weaknessess.
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/16/12767257-handicapping-a-potential-veep-shortlist

Ryan's a smart guy. He could hold his own against Biden.

Apparently Jindal is campaigning in Ohio for Romney tomorrow, but on the other side of the state from him.

So is Jeb.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/07/jeb-jindal-to-headline-romney-ohio-events-129239.html

So no one wants to get too close to Romney?  ;)

:P

Thune met Romney at the big GOP retreat a few weeks ago when Condi Rice gave a speech that everyone liked.  Rubio was not invited to that retreat (Rubio is not being vetted, and will decline to be vetted because he knows he has no shot at being picked). 

I just mentioned Thune because in many ways he is the polar opposite of Romney, and if the GOP pattern remains of picking someone the opposite for the ticket.  I don't necessarily think "choosing an opposite" is a wise choice, but sometimes it can be advantageous, especially since romney has an evangelical GOTV problem. 

Also, maybe Thune is being quiet on purpose to increase the "Surprise factor" 
Still, he should be campaigning more for Romney, like the other guys and gals.  Maybe Thune is going to turn Romney down and wait for his own chance in 2016.

We'll agree to disagree.

Here's my compilation of the Fab 4's last campaign appearances or TV surrogacies, in alphabetical order.

Jindal: CNN July 1, LA July 18 (OH July 19).

Pawlenty: CBS June 24, OH July 5.

Portman: FOX July 16.

Ryan: Janesville June 18, FTN July 15.


For once I agree with Ezra Klein.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/07/11/veepstakes-the-case-against-an-incredibly-boring-white-guy/

I would almost argue that Romney needs a gamechanger now more than McCain did back in summer '08.

Just got another Romney email...


Looks like the waiting game is back on.

OK then. The idea of doing it before the Olympics was always a bit far-fetched and OOC for a by-the-book guy like Romney. So either after he returns or the traditional schedule.

I was starting to get excited, too. Shucks.

Don't worry. Something tells me our patience will get rewarded. :P

We have a nominee for understatement of the year! 

I almost shot a mouthful of my drink against the screen reading that. 

Would you like a cookie for pointing that out? Here you go:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQYob6dpTTk

I think understatement is a good thing and it's often funny.  Chill.   

Don't underestimate Biden's debating skills. He wiped the floor with Palin four years ago and unless it's Portman who could take him on, Biden's gonna kill the Veep, be it Ryan, Jindal, or Pawlenty.

No one's going to "kill" anyone. Substance is subjective in this case (since everyone mentioned is knowledgeable on the issues) and style is an eyelash either way. Cheney-Edwards was a classic but I doubt it moved many votes. After all, they didn't top the ticket.

NYT again hints that the selection will be within the week.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/18/us/politics/romney-considers-early-vice-presidential-announcement.html?gwh=1D3F47C1008F37C6F2E6E071BFE93397

About the vetting of Rubio:

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/article1240770.ece

Portman says he doesn't want it. Team Romney is putting out more conflicting news- NRO says Friday, NYDN says when Romney returns from overseas. One of the reasons I don't think the rollout this week- way too much surrogate work. I don't recall Biden/Bayh/Kaine doing that just before Obama picked Biden.

http://www.businessinsider.com/rob-portman-says-hes-staying-in-the-senate-audio-2012-7

I wonder if Portman has already been told it's not him.

Kind of strange for THE most betted on pick to be saying he doesn't want it so close to when we're expecting an announcement.

News of Biden's Secret Service protection was leaked 3 days out- I just checked Google News. If the announcement's Friday and we're at Wednesday... as I said, doubtful.

Portman: If Romney wanted Bush on the ballot he would have picked Jeb.

Most betted on: Isn't that Pawlenty?

Pawlenty was leading briefly, but Portman is back on top at Intrade.

Apparently Pawlenty's site is down for updating, but surely it wouldn't be this obvious. Would it?

Intrade: Who cares what Intrade says?

guy in politics for maybe a dozen years vs a guy in politics for 40?

Romney's going to be headlining a CA fundraiser with George Shultz and Meg Whitman among others on Sunday, throwing this alleged schedule into even more doubt.

Link?  IIRC, it leaked out on Friday night, and the networks definitively broke the news that it was Biden late Friday night / early Saturday morning.

But news of the specific time and place that the announcement would be made was leaked out 3 days in advance for both Biden and Palin.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2008/08/us-secret-servi/

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2012/07/rob_portman_comments_sets_off.html

Sources who would not talk on the record told The Plain Dealer that too much is being read into Portman’s comments and that nothing has changed. He has said for several months that he is happy serving the people of Ohio in the Senate. But that was a classic non-denial denial, and as Portman has acknowledged before, you don’t exactly run to be the running mate. The presidential nominee picks you.

So Portman could still be the pick.

I simply cannot see Pawlenty as a heavyweight nominee.

That wasn't three days out.  That was just a few hours out.  Time stamp on the article is August 22 at 10:50pm, which was just like an hour before all the networks confirmed that was Biden.  Obama's campaign then officially confirmed it in the early morning hours, before Biden made his joint appearance w/ Obama on Saturday morning.

Guy who is a clownish buffoon, wrong on every foreign policy issue for 30+ years, and eating in dinners that have been closed for 20.
vs.
the guy with the best combination of intelligence, work ethic/morality, and speaking ability in Washington.     

I agree with your comments about Biden but do not believe Ryan is a good speaker at all...that is one of his weaknesses

well it starts with
1) being really really smart
which leads to
2) being able to answer anything off the top of his head better than anyone
which leads to
3)being the master of compressing complex thoughts/things/numbers into perfect soundbites.
which means
4) He is great on TV and can do a million interviews with no problem.
5)He is a happy optimistic guy despite having the most realistic understanding of gathering calamities.  He can bash an opponent with that advantage anytime he wants.   

I mean he never stumbles on words or numbers, the guy is smooth and concise, packing every sentence with information.  How is that a weakness?

No gravitas... you could tell me he is competing for a college debate team and I would believe you. He looks like a twig and sounds like his jewels haven't yet dropped

OK, you think he is too young.  I can see that, weakness at speaking is the opposite of reality though.  The guy has "jewels" enough to be the first/only guy to put a serious plan on the table.  Budget chairman carries some gravitas IMO.     

Don't get me wrong- I like Ryan and would be happy if he is named VP. I simply don't believe most would agree with you that he is a great speaker

I could see people interpreting "great speaker" differently.  He has great speaking skills (as I outlined).  He isn't a motivational, rabble rousing, shoot thrills up your leg guy very often because he's busy being serious.  He does have the ability to be inspirational, but I admit he can't pull that off all the time.     

Pawlenty was practically screaming about how un-boring he is, even offering to "show my tats" for Cavuto.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0712/78687.html

Wow. Trying too hard there T-Paw.

Yeah. I wonder how long he practiced that one?

This is a Pawtern which we've seen all too often. Wimpiness followed by hilarious overcompensation and hasty retreat. Plus who says "tats" as short for tattoos? Reminds me of when he made awkward Lady Gaga references during the debates.

Apparently one reason why Romney supposedly likes him is because he's willing to do literally anything they ask. Cause a yes man is totally who he's looking for as Veep.

Finally, in case the "Pawlenty's site thing is down" thing is up- apparently that's not how redesign is done. Another part of the head fake.

If Romney picks Pawlenty, I think the American people are going to sleep through the VP debate. Most boring Republican pol ever.

Just got an email from the Romney campaign:


Friend,

How amazing would it be to personally meet Mitt and his choice for VP during this historic campaign? You've still got 48 hours to enter for a chance to meet America's Comeback Team -- don't miss out.

Donate $3 today to be automatically entered for the chance to join Mitt and his VP pick at a future event.

Good luck!

Abe Adams
Deputy Digital Director
Romney for President

Remember how they said it was each week until the announcement to enter this contest? Now it's down to 48 hours. Methinks the announcement is coming this week.

If it's this week, I feel like it's Pawlenty. If it's later, I feel like it's Ryan.

With Romney set to unleash hell on Obama (cocaine, Blago, etc.), I was starting to think he'd leave the VP announcement for later. Both a VP announcement and a negative ad frenzy would be big distractions from the tax returns issue, so why would he need both? Seems like overkill. Especially when a VP announcement isn't likely to backfire.

Fixed.

Or it could be just that the chance to win this week ends Friday, with Saturday starting a new week.

Perhaps.

I still say Portman.

As a CNN guest commentator said the other day-

Portman is as solid as a rock and as safe as a seat belt.

If you're getting that Bushed might as well go all-in and pick Jeb.

I'm really thinking Pawlenty, at this point.

If we go through the Olympics with no substantive news, I might revise that to Ryan. I think RogueBeaver's got a good handle on the dynamic here.

Thanks. :D I just don't see Pawlenty as a viable option... and this "best surrogate" meme is easily disproved by a few clicks around YouTube. Most active surrogate maybe, but definitely not best. This might be my contrarianism talking but I seriously doubt that Romney is going to drop the name a month in advance. Those who know don't talk and those who don't know talk, that's how I see things.

Pawlenty looks good on paper but in practice not so much. That, IMO, basically summarizes his problems as a potential running mate.

Here are the Ryan pros and cons as I see them.


Cons

1) Mediscare: Potential problem but Romney has already endorsed P2P as his governing document and literally, publicly, hugged its author. They can't disengage even if they wanted to, which they don't. If Ryan's on the shortlist this has already been priced in. Plus Ryan's the only one who can explain his plan smoothly.

2) Executive experience: Already priced in. And/or it could be that Romney, who knows a thing or 2 about HR from his Bain days, sees executive potential in Ryan even if he's never had an opportunity to exercise it.

3) Acceptance: No one goes through a virtual colonoscopy for the lulz, plus by one account Romney and Myers are calling all the shortlisters personally. You don't go that far if you intend on saying no.

4) Too risky: See 1/2. Romney didn't get to where he was in the business world by playing 100% safe but by taking calculated risk. Which this would be, as were his primary stances on entitlements and immigration.


Pros

1) $$$: Proven major-league fundraiser on his own.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0712/78778.html

2) Juices the base: No explanation required.

3) Excellent communicator: Even Dems such as Jon Chait will (very) grudgingly acknowledge this.

4) Made for soft-bio background: Small-town guy made big, worked way through college, etc.

5) Aced the chem test: No explanation required.

6) Historical precedent: Younger star from another wing of the party than the nominee's.

May be still Obama.

Your Bane Photo is disrespectful of the victims of the Colorado shooting. 
But I suppose to some lefty people its funny comparing Romney to a Murderer. 

Dude, I put that in my sig before it even happened (Bane=Bain, get it...), and I took it down literally a day after I put it there. Why don't you stop assuming things to score moral political points.

I think if Romney decides to go with a 'game change' pick, then it'll be Jindal. I just don't think Ryan is going to be picked in the end because he reinforces the whole Democratic argument against Romney as being someone who'll cut taxes for the rich at the expense of the working/middle class.

Though I still think he'll go with a safe pick means Portman or Pawlenty. And I'd give the edge to Portman.

It won't be Jindal, they just met this week. Romney isn't going to pick someone he doesn't know- and Jindal, a fellow management consultant, knows this.

All this hoop-blah about Jindal, Ryan and Pawlenty doesn't change the fact that Senator Rob Portman is still everything that the Romney campaign is looking for. 

He failed the chem test and is Bushier than any non-Bush Bushie. Not happening.

Romney leaves for the UK on Wednesday:

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/21/12875776-risk-and-reward-await-romney-on-foreign-trip?lite

and will be visiting the UK, Israel, and Poland over the subsequent six days, after which he returns to the USA.  I think it goes without saying that we've now run out of time for a veep announcement before this trip.  The earliest it's going to happen is immediately after the Olympics.

Plus he's not going to announce after the tragedy in Colorado, out of respect.

Also, T-Paw is a tryhard.

Ed Morrissey interviews T-Paw.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ygcTqtS31g&feature=player_embedded

I'm beginning to  move away from an assumption of Pawlenty and towards thinking it'll be something like a tossup between him and Ryan at this point.

;)

Out of curiosity, what changed the equation for you?

I responded to your PM, but I'll say it again here for the rest of the forum. I think that Pawlenty is trying too hard and I've looked more closely into Romney and Ryan's relationship (not necessarily a pleasant experience as someone who dislikes both of them, let me tell you! :P) and they seem to have a good rapport and more familiarity with each other than I was aware of. I still think Pawlenty has a slight edge because he's 'safer' (and we'll remember that Romney's so far running a campaign straight out of the proverbial field manuals), but I'm not convinced he really has all that much of a leg up over Ryan, considering Ryan is orders of magnitude more interesting and has at least baseline competence for if and when Romney decides to go on the offense. For example, if it's Ryan who's going to be debating Dynamite Joe, that will be kinetic, informative to watch, and actually kind of exciting to political junkies like us. If it's Pawlenty, not so much.

I'm sincerely doubting the possibility of Portman, since I don't think anybody will really notice or care if it's him and he doesn't have the gravitas of Pawlenty (not that Pawlenty actually has gravitas, but I can imagine the Romney people perceiving what he has as gravitas).

[Side note: I have a ton of affection and respect for Joe Biden, whose cultural background is very similar to that of my family, so I have reasons to hope that the Republican running mate specifically will be a crashing bore; hence the shift in my perception of the veepstakes is the exact opposite of wishful thinking.)

Largely agreed, except I think Portman has more gravitas than Pawlenty.

Right now I'm thinking first tier- Pawlenty and Portman (lean Pawlenty)
2- Jindal and Martinez (Martinez is Romney's game changer pick that won't backfire)
3- Ayotte, Thune, Rice (I'll explain her below)
4- McDonnell if he can't get these guys to say yes

The announcement is going to come between the end of the olympics and the beginning of the convention. Romney's last high profile campaign move will be his international trip, on top of the Olympics. I think he's going to pick someone with foreign policy experience, and the closer date to the end of the Olympics I think it will be more likely he/she will have foreign policy experience to a date closer to the RNC where his international trip was longer ago.

The reason I previously thought Portman had to be it despite his close Bush ties, was his vast foreign policy experience. I'm changing my mind now after reading an article from years ago about Pawlenty and a more recent one citing the old article and his foreign policy experience. Pawlenty has made international trips, 8 years as commander in chief of the national guard (no it isn't really a war in Minnesota, but it's still something), pressuring the Indian company not to invest in Iran. The key thing is Pawlenty is "his own" foreign policy, not an extension of Bush like Portman is. Portman has more experience in every area, and Romney should heavily consider a Senator if he's choosing a candidate to governor with not to win with since the Senate could be 50-50, and no matter what he needs a lot of friends in the Senate to get any agenda he wants through, Portman gives him that.

This is why Rice is still up on the list, and yes she has been looked at somewhat because she was invited to the speech audition, if you may, in Utah and stunned the crowd. If Romney is about to change this campaign to be about foreign policy then she's the pick, not Portman, not Pawlenty. But I doubt he'll make that move at all. Still, she isn't tied to Bush's domestic woes like Portman could be tagged as.

Jindal on the other hand hasn't made many trips, in fact none as Governor. He's the most conservative out of everyone at the top of the list (maybe next to Paul Ryan who I don't think Romney will pick because it guarantees a fight for entitlements and Romney is too weak and fearful of that fight), but he has the least foreign policy experience.

Romney wants his personality next to him that will be loyal and won't be running around making a name for himself or herself.

The reason he'd choose Martinez is because he would be serious about winning hispanics, women, the election, and focussing on the economy. She's a tough cookie. I've read her bio and just because she assumed the Governorship 1.5 years ago, does not mean she is a newbie at all. I would argue she's much better suited to shoot down the "she's as dumb as Palin" idea than Ayotte. Her vice is that as I view it today, Romney is looking for someone with some foreign policy experience. Sure you can argue dealing with Mexico (or Texas :P) counts, but it isn't as large as the other guys in the race. I think she becomes a more likely pick if he continues to wait after the Olympics.

I think he'll actually decide after the Olympics because he's going to wait and see the reaction to how he did on the international stage. Will he need someone for whatever reason, with a foreign policy background or not. That will shift this whole mess around on who's at the top of the list.

I hate this drawn out affair lol. That more and more he waits, the more and more I desperately hope it will be Martinez. Even though I'm quite sure it won't be her.

Drawn out affair? The pick is never announced till 3 weeks pre-convention, minimum. They head-faked us about a possible July rollout. :P

Also from that Morrissey interview: the "Come back later" tag on his website means nothing.

haha, true say. I just happened to fall for it. :P

But I'm happy that Martinez's name has started cropping up in this thread a little more than usual. Maybe everyone's on to something. One can hope.

I think the pick will be either the end of the first week or the early second week of August.

Not during the Olympics IMO.

NPR has a short Ryan profile up.

http://www.npr.org/2012/07/24/157246809/budget-hawk-ryan-offers-romney-risk-reward

Myers name-drops someone who isn't being vetted.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/24/romney-vp-vetting-chief-mentions-mcdonnell/

Both McDonnell and Jindal stumping in Iowa for Romney. Rubio will be stumping in Nevada also.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/07/mcdonnell-hitting-iowa-for-romney-130008.html

What happened to Rubio, by the way? Did they stop vetting him, and if so, why?

He was never vetted, Romney's comment a month ago notwithstanding. I'm sure he gets a primetime speaking slot.

We have some really important veepstakes news today: Kelly Ayotte was included in The Hill's "50 most beautiful people" list:

http://thehill.com/capital-living/cover-stories/239791-the-hills-50-most-beautiful-people-2012?start=11

That is, 50 most beautiful people on Capital Hill, not 50 most beautiful people in the world.  But note:

"Ayotte declined to participate in an interview for this feature."

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

Not much more than Jeb lobbying Romney to pick Rubio.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0712/78998.html

Romney: next week will be the earliest time slot.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0712/79010.html

It could mean that she finds the idea of being included on a "prettiest legislators" list pretty demeaning.

I'm not sure that Rubio would bring the success that Republicans are hoping it would bring. Yes, I can see Romney comfortably winning in Florida but as far as recruiting Hispanics, many will see Rubio as not authentically Hispanic due to his party registration. He does more help than harm to the ticket but it doesn't seem to be all it's been cracked up to be.

If you're arguing for a Veep based on hardware only then that's an automatic forfeit. They'll get tarred as an AA pick and badly damage their image, quite possibly their careers.

Back OT, here are the Fab Four schedules.

Jindal: Rally in Coral Springs, FL today.

Pawlenty: Raleigh, NC tomorrow.

Portman: OH tomorrow, PA Monday.

Ryan: WI Sunday.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/vp-audition-8-hopefuls-fan-out-for-romney/article/2503313

It'll be either Ryan or Pawlenty.

Yep. I still don't get all the hoopla about T-Paw. It boils down to "Generic Midwestern R who Romney likes." Politically he doesn't bring anything to the table and wouldn't raise any money, his own debts are being paid off courtesy of Boston. .

The Upper Midwest or Great Lake states is where I believe the election will be decided so it's not a bad idea to pick Pawlenty or Ryan. Leaning Democratic states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Ohio will likely decide this race. Don't forget Iowa and Pennsylvania either. I consider my part of PA to be midwest. I still think Rubio can turn CO, NM, and NV if things are done right.

Did a 'Follow Friday' list reveal the name of Mitt Romney's VP choice?

http://www.tecca.com/news/2012/07/27/mitt-romney-running-mate-leak-twitter/

I'm personally hoping it's Condoleezza Rice. Mitt needs to prove he won't make the same mistakes as McCain and pick someone capable of serving as president from day one.

Do Republicans not seem to get that Rubio just being on the ticket won't turn Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. Rubio is Cuba. A majority of Hispanics in this country are Mexican-American and don't identify with cubans because of their preferential immigration status. Polls have shown Rubio to have little to no effect on hispanics.

She tweets out 13 different names, and I don't think anyone is seriously thinking it'll be someone not on that list.  But the list is surely longer than the current short list.  I mean, Newt Gingrich as Romney's running mate?  I can't believe that that was ever considered.

It'll be one of the people in her first tweet but we knew that already.

Branstad endorses Rubio.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/28/13012808-rubio-picks-up-vice-presidential-support-from-iowas-gov-branstad?ocid=twitter

Game changer.

I'm hoping it's Condoleezza Rice.

Same. It gets people talking. She's ready to be president. She isn't stupid. The right won't hate her. Obama will attack her for being close to Bush, which will probably come across as the most obivous distraction in the world.

I think it would be a good pick.

But she's pro-choice and is not married. Plus she doesn't want the job either.

Not so sure romney will pick a washington insider. Rubio is part of washington he's a senator and Portman is part of washington he's also a senator. Romney spent the entirety of his presidential primary campaign casting himself — smartly — as an outsider to Washington and its ways.

But Rubio is a very Anti-Washington/Anti-Establishment type of guy. Even as a Senator, he maintains the Anti-Washington type image.

Portman, on the other hand, is more establishment than Rubio, therefore picking him might not end up very well. The reason Pawlenty is a safe pick is because he wasn't a Washington insider, rather a Governor from a state as far away from the DC BS as possible. If Pawlenty's the pick, he won't win Minnesota, but it might help secure some states like Wisconsin or Ohio.

Pawlenty won't help anywhere or with anything. The guy can't even retire his own campaign debt, how is he going to raise money for the campaign? Plus Romney said he'll pick a conservative, and Pawlenty's reputation there is hardly stellar. OK, but nothing to write home about.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/tim-pawlenty-shows-sides-vice-presidential-contender/story?id=16879673

Romney may be one of the first presidential candidates to lose his home state on election night. Massachusettes. And if he chooses pawlenty he may not carry his home state either.

I think it seems like people would care more than they actually would. Herman Cain was a black, cheating husband. And I bet if he'd stayed in the race, he still would have been formidable, if only because of how much people disliked Romney. People would accept Condi.

Do you remember what happened in '08 when McCain floated pro-choice running mates like Lieberman, Ridge, Giuliani? Hint: it wasn't pretty. Particularly for someone like Romney who's already distrusted on this issue because of his weathervane tendencies.

To me Condimania makes even less sense than Pawlentymania, but to each their own.

Every governor who runs for president runs as an outsider to Washington and its ways, yet they all pick running mates with Washington experience.  When was the last time we had a major party ticket with two current or former governors?  Hasn't happened for at least several decades.

Morden is right, and Jon Karl thinks that Ryan's odds are undervalued.


http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/07/sunday-sound-heard-on-this-week-11/

Gore, McGovern, Stevenson, Dewey, Landon, Hoover, Smith, Davis, Cox, Wilson, Taft, Parker, Bryan...

The governor of va will be romneys running mate. I just have that feeling that romney knows he needs to carry va.

Which isn't Portlenty.

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/07/heilemann-why-jindal-ryan-look-good-to-romney.html

I was about to point that out.

Romney will announce his choice via a smartphone app, which you can download here:

http://www.mittromney.com/app/vp

Of course, in 2008, Obama was supposedly going to announce his choice via text message, but it didn't happen until about 5 hours after it was already reported by all the cable news networks.

Honestly, I think Mitt just wants to seem cool and relatable with this. He wants to show everyone that he understands what it's like to own an iPhone instead of a $500,000 robot phone that's not slated to come out until 2023. Mitt's relatable.

Will he announce during this swing-state tour in a few weeks?

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/31/romney-preps-swing-state-blitz-stirring-v-p-speculation/

At least all the words are spelled correctly this time around.

Jon Karl: Shortlist down to Pawlenty/Portman/Ryan.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS/jonathan-karls-list-vp-field-august-portman-pawlenty-ryan/story?id=16354225#.UBk1-mFfFQJ

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/video/mitt-romney-set-pick-vice-president-2012-election-16902991

Portman  = safe/"smart"
Pawlenty = safe/vanilla
Ryan        = perfect guy to be VP/ slight risk

I buy that that is actually the top tier.   

I doubt Portman because of a) Bush b) flunking the chem test. The real battle is between Pawlenty and Ryan.

True, but Romney cant win without OH and polls havent been good to Romney in OH (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html)

So I'm betting on Portman

I know Rice was mostly floated as a distraction... but after a bad overseas trip and lagging numbers, she's a risk I'd look into. Almost every swing state poll (and some safe-D states), show Rice being a significant help for Romney.

Portman doesn't move the OH needle, PPP has polled that theory multiple times. The only one who moves their home state needle is Ryan.

If Romney can figure out a way to get around the abortion issue, I think she's the best pick.

If he chooses Pawlenty, we'll se some ads about ObamneyCare. If he chooses Ryan, will see some Medicare ads and Obama will most likely carry Fl and make AZ competitive. Portman is the best of them three, even if he worked in the GWB administration. GWB's approvals aren't that bad right now (and that makes me sick).

I think you're the first left-wing forumer to admit it, but keep in mind Republicans and independents have a 'he was alright' opinion about Bush, whereas Democrats remember him as 'he was f**king AWFUL!' The turnout effect picking a former Bush administration official would have would not be positive for Romney, unfortunately.

This. She won't give him the 5% boost a lot of polling shows. But she would be very difficult for the left to brand her as non mainstream. And I think 2 or 3% lasting boost is realistic.  She would be very good at getting the mom vote.

I actually forgot Portman's first name for a while

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN!?

Until there's a revolt at the convention over a pro-choice VP.

He says "I believe the short list comes down to three names: Rob Portman, Tim Pawlenty and Paul Ryan", but it doesn't sound like he's really getting that from a primary source (the Romney campaign telling him).  Rather, it sounds like he's reading the tea leaves.  The more interesting thing here is this bit:


Any day now?  Romney isn't actually going to announce before the end of the Olympics, is he?

I don't quite understand why anyone thinks Ryan on the ticket will cost Romney with seniors.  Ryan's Medicare proposals don't actually affect seniors and his social security reforms are distant enough- having been dropped from both iterations of his budget- that they're unlikely to get the bulk of the attention.  Plus, did anyone watch any of the townhalls Ryan held during his time in the sun?  They were full to the brim with seniors.  Ryan and Romney are going to have to sell the working age population, not seniors.  PPP's Wisconsin poll is instructive.  By himself, Romney loses the 65+ cohort 50-43.  With Walker, he loses it 49-43.  With Ryan, he loses it 48-44.  Romney's favorables were 42-49 with the 65+.  Ryan's were 43-42.  Walker's 49-47.  Obama's 50-47.  Florida's in no danger with Ryan on the ticket, anymore than it was when Rubio ran on similar reforms.  In an extended campaign, seniors realize that nothing Republicans are proposing actually affects them. 

True.  
If Ryan isn't the VP, the Dems will lie and confuse the issue AND team Romney won't crush that crap with the truth because they won't focus on it correctly.

If he is the VP, the Dems will lie and confuse the issue AND team Romney will crush them with the truth because Ryan is the best spokesman/ defender of his/Romney's plan.    

Ryan is probably the best choice with seniors.  

As far as tea leaves go, on primary nights Ann Romney introduced Mitt for every victory speech I can remember except Wisconsin... where Ryan did the honors.  

A quick question, but in the event he was picked, would Ryan be able to run simultaneously for VP and reelection to the House?

Yes, Biden did that for his Senate seat.

Yea, we covered this a while ago.  Ryan's office confirmed over the phone that it is legal to do so in Wisconsin (and that they only know this because they looked into it after being asked many times).  Many states have some type of "LBJ" law as they're commonly called.   

Beth Myers (head of the VP vetting team) is in Basalt, Colorado with Romney today, as he meets with some GOP governors who're there for the RGA meeting.  Romney will appear at a rally with Christie, McDonnell, Jindal, and Martinez:

http://thehill.com/blogs/twitter-room/other-news/241837-head-of-romney-vp-search-on-hand-for-rally-with-jindal-mcdonnell

ABC says that this is Jindal's first public appearance with Romney aside from fundraisers:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/08/veep-beat-romney-campaign-bulking-up-vp-team/

Is that true?  I could have sworn they'd done an appearance together at some point in the past.

Also, the campaign is adding more staff-in-waiting for Romney's soon-to-be running mate:

link (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443545504577563491894042220.html?mod=WSJ__MIDDLESecondStories)

If the Olympics end August 12th (as Wikipedia has told me) I'd expect an announcement between the 14th and the 17th, which is two weeks before the convention. Plenty of time to begin campaigning.

Romney campaigned in Colorado today, and will campaign in Nevada on Friday.  Does he have any other events between this weekend and Friday, Aug. 10th, when he starts his bus tour?  If he has a big gap in his schedule this coming week, that might be when he huddles with his top aides to make a final veep decision.  There might also be face-to-face interviews with the top two or three or four short listers.  That's frequently happened in recent election cycles.

His schedule is only released 3 days in advance IIRC, so we won't know till Saturday or Sunday.

It seems the 10th is the day. The olympics will be died down by then, I mean nobody really watches the closing ceremony, it sorta fades away. He doesn't have to wait until the actual close. I bet he'll kick it off on the bus tour so people watch, otherwise he finishes with it and nobody really cares until he finishes the tour and if he announces on the way it's giving the middle finger to the bus tour states he already went to.

The bus tour will be August 10-13.  As far as I can tell, it's been reported that the bus tour will hit these states on these days:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/31/romney-preps-swing-state-blitz-stirring-v-p-speculation/

http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_politics/2012/07/romney-planning-pre-convention-bus-tour-to-hit-orlando-speculation-vp-pick-could-be-on-board-too.html

August 11: Virginia
August 12: North Carolina
August 13: Florida

AFAIK, it hasn't been confirmed where the tour will begin on August 10, however this article says:

http://www.newsandsentinel.com/page/content.detail/id/563701/Obama--Romney-come-to-Ohio--but-not-locally.html?nav=5061


I would assume that Ohio would then be August 10, since it's the only day left.

Romney is also scheduled to do a fundraiser in Charlotte on August 15:

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/08/03/3426713/romney-will-visit-charlotte-on.html

Pawlenty is doing an event in New Hampshire on August 11, the second day of the bus tour:

http://www.nhgop.org/events/detail/4891

though that's presumably something he could easily cancel or reschedule for veep-related reasons.  I don't know about the other likely short-listers.

The 10th? Wouldn't it be the 9th? A Thursday is a far better day to make news than a Friday and it allows the running mate to get three full bus tour days.

I'm beginning to grow more confident that the pick will be Paul Ryan. No matter what anyone says or reports, I have a gut feeling that it'll be Paul Ryan. At the end of the day, Pawlenty is safe, but he's too safe. The base will get behind the Romney/Pawlenty ticket, but I highly doubt Independents will. Plus there'll be a bunch of "Obamneycare" ads, etc. Paul Ryan will excite the base and would definitely win over more Indies than Pawlenty would.

hero

Romney is doing a fundraiser in Indiana on Saturday:

http://www.courierpress.com/news/2012/aug/02/no-headline---romneyevent/

Still no word on his schedule between Sunday and Thursday.

A Boehner spokesman has joined the staff of the soon-to-be Romney running mate:

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/242079-boehner-spokesman-moves-to-romney-camps-vp-staff

Portman doesn't have Romney's VP app:

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/politics/2012/08/02/portman-no-room-for-that-app/

NBC has the schedule.

http://video.msnbc.msn.com/nbc-news/48489083


Karl still bullish on Ryan.

http://www.mediaite.com/online/abc-news-jonathan-karl-talks-to-mediaite-about-romneys-potential-v-p-pick-that-could-reset-the-race/

Ryan budget much?

OK, they say nothing about Romney's whereabouts between Sunday and Wednesday.  They do have him listed as going to two fundraisers in New York on Thursday.  From searching The Google, I found this tweet:

http://en.twitter.com/shushwalshe/status/225208725969965056

suggesting that these are breakfast and lunch fundraisers, freeing Romney to spend the rest of the day preparing for his four day bus tour.

I still think an announcement during the Olympics is kind of unlikely.  So I'd lean more towards it taking place *after* the bus tour.  But if it does happen during the Olympics, then I'd guess that it'll happen either on the morning of Friday Aug. 10, or possibly even the evening of Thursday Aug. 9.  And I'd predict that it'll happen in Michigan, Romney's original home state.

We know that the bus tour hits Virginia on Aug. 11, and we know that it'll also hit Ohio (probably before Virginia).  Why not have it start in Michigan, where Romney grew up, and have it make its way to Florida, where the RNC will be held?  I mean, if he's going to announce his running mate at this time, then what's the alternative?  Announce it in Ohio, home state of Portman, one of the shortlisters?  Only makes sense if you're picking Portman.  And even if you are picking Portman, why spoil the surprise by revealing that you're going to make the announcement in his home state?  Michigan seems like it makes the most sense.

In fact, even if the announcement isn't for another two or three weeks, I'll predict that it'll be made in Michigan.

I don't know if this has already been posted, but... Tim Pawlenty is also having some tax trouble.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/aug/03/tim-pawlenty-tax-vice-presidential

Pawlenty's made the top 2 last time, presumably McCain's team knew about that. Though given how laughably incompetent they were in "vetting" Palin maybe not. Pawlenty is the least wealthy of this trio. Portman #1, Ryan #2.

McCain never seriously looked at him at all in the final round. He was simply used as a decoy and wasn't even told he was a decoy.

Source?

My recollection is that the reporting had McCain polling his senior aides to see who they thought would be the best pick politically, and Pawlenty had the most support in McCain's inner circle, but McCain overruled them to go with Palin.

Yeah to Obama. People like the Medicare and Social Security they've paid for.

Does anyone read the articles?


I made the exact same point 2 weeks ago.

That's also what Game Change says- most of them wanted Pawlenty but Schmidt said they needed a game-changer. McCain agreed with him. Plus Palin at that point in her career was a better fit with McCain's mavericky brand.

On the veep announcement timing, another option besides the one I floated earlier would be to hold it right at the very end of the bus tour, but tease the announcement during the bus tour to get people to pay attention.

Say Romney spends the coming week mulling his VP options, discussing it with his aides and possibly even talking to the short-listers themselves, with an eye towards having a decision by the end of the week.  But when Friday rolls around and the bus tour is launched in, say, either Michigan or Ohio, Romney kicks off the tour by saying that he's going to announce his choice of running mate on Monday  night, when the bus tour concludes.  The campaign will simultaneously leak the short list to the media, and Romney have the media scrutinizing his speeches throughout the rest of the bus tour for clues about who he's going to pick.  It'll be a ploy to get people to pay more attention to him on the bus tour.

Then on Monday, Aug. 13, one day after the end of the Olympics, by which time Ann Romney will be back from London, Romney concludes his bus tour in RNC host city Tampa by announcing his running mate.  The campaign then tries to use the announcement to dominate the media's attention for the subsequent two weeks, leading up to the convention.

Why Michigan?  Even if the state were to become a possible Romney pickup, he'd be well past 270 from other states by then.  If he's going to make the bus trip a day longer, Iowa and/or Wisconsin are far better States to prepend than Michigan.

But Pawlenty was only considered because he was "outside washington" to McCain's "inside washington" status.

Romney "Should" go with an "inside washington" person in the Senate or House, just because it would help soothe voters that a one term governor will know how to cajole Senators into passing his legislation. 

I'm resigned to the fact that it will be T-Paw, and that somehow T-Paw will miraculously bring out the GOP vote in Iowa and Wisconsin.  Otherwise, its a total lost cause for Romney and he should give up on Ohio and Virginia as well. 

Why resigned to T-Paw? There hasn't been a double-governor ticket on either side since Dewey/Warren, as was pointed out earlier in this thread.

Because it's Romney's home state (at least, where he grew up), and a quasi-swing state, and it borders on ultimate swing state Ohio.  In recent cycles, candidates have typically either announced their running mate choice in their own home state or in a swing state.  Romney will try to claim Michigan as his home state, and announce his pick there, but not spend too much time there, then a few hours later he and his running mate roll into Ohio and spend the day campaigning there.

I'll stick with that until knocked down by hard news on this: Romney either announces his pick in Michigan (just before the bus tour, or else later in the month), or he announces it in Tampa at the end of the bus tour.

Both Portman's and Ryan's home states are swing states, so if it either of them is the choice then an announcement that isn't made at the end of the bus trip is likely to be in their home state, not one of Romney's.  Maybe if Pawlenty is the choice it'll be announced in Michigan, but there are plenty of other logical choices.

In recent election cycles, presidential nominees have avoided making their announcement in the VP pick's home state to avoid tipping off the press in advance as to who it'll be.  They either announce it in their own home state or a swing state.

Kerry actually went farther than that, and didn't even have Edwards with him when he made his announcement, to help stop the news from leaking.  I believe he announced it in Pennsylvania near his wife's home, while Edwards was in North Carolina.  Then later in the day, Edwards flew out to make a joint appearance with him.

Most recent running mate picks have not been from close election swing states.  Gore in 1992 was the last and was announced from Arkansas, but Clinton was a sitting governor at the time.  Romney is free to make his announcement from anywhere he chooses.

Yes, but as I said, if you announce the pick in the running mate's home state, then you're tipping people off about who you're picking and it kills the surprise.

Maybe Romney won't care about the surprise.  Maybe he'll be happy for people to know who he's going to pick a day or more before he announces it.  But if he does care, then it seems like a bad idea.

Do you really think that more Indies would like Pawlenty? Even with the Ryan Budget, do you seriously think Independents will say "yeah, Tim Pawlenty FTW!!!!"?

This isn't a bad strategy...

Guys, there's a reason why Pawlenty was named Least Influential Person in the World.

But in all fairness, shouldn't that be Least Influential Governor in the U.S.?

Jindal, speaking to the RedState Gathering, endorses Ryan for Veep.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXHWqm2A3vI&feature=player_embedded

Good.

Karl's latest take.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/08/sunday-sound-heard-on-this-week-12/

He needs a game changer....Rubio is that pick unless it is some one very unexpected

IMO, Karl's basically saying that Romney is leaning towards Portlenty but the pendulum is moving towards bold. So the longer the wait... more likely we get a bold pick. One rumored date is this Friday but the Olympics aren't over and IIRC, Ann will still be in London watching Rafalca in the dressage finals. More likely next week sometime IMO.

Politico on Ryan's weekend. Though the stuff they mention seems to me like the mini-tempest over T-Paw's website 2 weeks ago... too obvious.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/08/paul-ryans-weekend-131130.html

I respect your admiration for Ryan... if he is the pick, I'd vote for him for VP along with his running mate. However- I believe Rubio is far more dynamic and charismatic and would do more good in Florida then Ryan would in Wisconsin

We agree... Romney needs a game changer

If it's early next week, it'll likely be Pawlenty, if it's later next week, it'll be Ryan.

Rubio's become the dark horse.

Interesting how the Rubio buzz has perked up.

I agree that he's gotta pick someone dynamic. Obama's got Mitt into a bit of a corner...

The Rubio buzz only came from TWS. Don't take that as gospel. I remember very well that around this time last year they said Ryan was all but in the presidential race. Turned out he'd pulled a Christie: "Rethought it, thanks but no thanks."

I agree with RP. We need time for the pendulum to keep swinging bold.

Just in case no one read the Ryan article: it talked about amended FEC filings and abruptly cancelling a DC speech Friday to head back to his district (to see his family, per his PS).

Finally, last I heard T-Paw is in NH on the 11th and that hasn't been cancelled yet. If it isn't cancelled and the announcement is previewed for early next week, IMO a signal that he isn't it. You don't have the pick doing surrogacy 72 hours before the announcement. Biden got a fair bit of buzz but he wasn't doing surrogacy that close to A-Day.

I'm still unclear on where Romney is today, and where he's supposed to be on Monday through Wednesday of this week.  Is he huddled with his advisors doing veep deciding?

Did he just rewrite my posts on this forum from 5 months ago?  

Looks like it. :P Keep our fingers crossed.

He's in Wolfeboro today and tomorrow. Nothing on the schedule so far for Tues/Wed, IIRC.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hdTH8TeZWc-dX6g2kwIYB4tyd3Uw?docId=8df608e6716c43f39f02e796f9d26d76

According to RNC Chairman Reince Priebus, whoever Romney picks is going to be a 'bold choice' (http://www.politico.com/blogs/politico-live/2012/08/priebus-romney-will-pick-bold-choice-for-vp-131127.html?hp=r8).

So that clearly rules out Tim Pawlenty and Rob Portman.

But also boilerplate from someone whose public job is spin, very close to a top contender (Ryan) and most importantly isn't in the loop. Any real hints will come from top Veepstakers like Karl and Halperin, not elected officials.

Apparently Portman's up on Intrade. Ryan still isn't really registering there.

Romney/Rubio would be the ticket with the absolute least high-level political experience in recent history, six years combined at the gubernatorial/congressional level--although I understand Rubio was prominent in Florida state politics for some time.

It's gonna be Ryan.

Would that be the Intrade which predicted Romney would win Alabama? :P Seriously, they're the last people who might have serious info.

Sadly for me as someone who would prefer the race to say as close to the status quo as possible for as long as possible, it would be that Intrade, yes.

Frankly I'm not convinced Ryan shakes things up as much as Romney thinks he does for purposes of the campaign, but I'm fundamentally more concerned about the prospect of him holding high office than the other main contenders.

Ryan is the best elected official I have ever seen at articulating serious things (plans, situations, facts, numbers, etc) and counter punching criticism of his position without ever making a mistake (of fact, or gaff, etc).  He never even stumbles on a word while retabulating federal budgets off the top of his head in the middle of a soundbite.  He is so confidence inspiring because he could probably do anything Romney would ask of him extremely well.  Whereas Obama has a guy (Biden) who will mess up the simplest task most of the time.  

I think things will be quite shaken up with a Ryan pick because I can't see the Media or the Democrats laying off the bait of criticizing him.  They will for sure and they will end up looking really foolish after the responses.  ...That is a textbook definition of shakeup (beating up the opposing party and any negative press)      

The last time the media and Democrats spent time criticizing Paul Ryan it actually went reasonable well for a while, though. I also think you're seriously underestimating Biden's likability to people in places like Ohio.

IMO Pawlenty's personal tax issue from '03 would hypothetically be more important than this.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0812/79331.html

On Ryan/Biden: They aren't topping their tickets. That said, I would definitely want Ryan and not the guy who got owned by Michele Bachmann debating Biden.

Huh, I wasn't aware of this. Yeah, this might make Romney shirk from Pawlenty in favor of Portman if he's going for a 'safe choice'. Might, since Portman's picture is also in the dictionary under 'Beltway insider'.


On this I think we entirely agree. A Biden/Ryan debate would if nothing else be hugely interesting, possibly revelatory.

Why? Even Norquist is giving T-Paw a pass here. :P

Really? That's a little surprising. I guess you know more about the scuttlebutt here than I do, though.

He says so in the article.

I wish I could have a televised debate with Norquist. I just yearn for it. I am quite confident I could cut him to ribbons. Yes I do. The man suffers from innumeracy.

Btw, Pawlenty would be a huge disappointment to me if picked. He has a pedestrian mind, with works like one of those coloring books that kids use, where you fill in the outlines already there with crayon colors.

I...er, may have skimmed the article in between trying to deal with a water leak into my bedroom. I'll be more on top of things in coming days, I promise. I've had a bad day.


I wish you could, too, Torie.

Apparently the Tampa Bay Times will be previewing some convention speakers around midnight. Gulp.

So far Christie is the only announced speaker, right?

Rice, Martinez, Haley, Huckabee among the announced speakers.

If Santorum doesn't get a speaking spot...

It has nothing to do with Veepstaking. :P

Oh, no, no. I wasn't implying that. This was just the first place I saw the speaker announcement and was voicing my frustration.

By the way, I'm not even rooting for Rick to be the (total surprise) pick. I'm not rooting for anyone actually.

It'll be post-Olympics, if for no other reason than Ann won't be back from London by Friday. Personally I'm not eager for an early rollout cause the result probably wouldn't please me.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/05/a-big-decision-with-its-timing-carefully-planned/?ref=politics&gwh=9368E5A037ECA331D68E6E33DBD7106B

Romney in NH all day.

http://race42012.com/2012/08/06/romney-to-spend-all-day-with-senior-advisers-in-nh-today/#comments

Bus tour officially announced. VA (11), NC (12), FL (13), OH (14).

They must have multiple buses prepared.  Just from Tallahassee to Cincinnati is over 12 hours non-stop.  Makes no sense to add Ohio on at the end unless it was a last minute addition to tour with the Veep in his home State after announcing him in Tampa next Monday. 

While the Veep might be unveiled on the tour I doubt a) that it's Portman b) that they'd be that obvious. I still think Pawlenty has an edge in Boston's mind but would be thrilled to be proven wrong.

NBC's report on today's meeting.

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/06/13147188-romney-bus-tour-fuels-vp-speculation?ocid=twitter

I wouldn't think they'd be that obvious either, but that's a poor schedule for a bus tour unless he intends to announce in Florida and then go to the home state of his veep choice.  Also the VA/NC/FL stops were announced first.

Palin was announced in Ohio. IMO if Romney wanted real suspense he'd announce the pick in Iowa. Right between MN/WI. :P

Yeah, that's a change from the initial schedule.  It was originally August 10-13, now it's 11-14.  So it doesn't start until Saturday.  Will Ann be back from London by Saturday?  ;)  Also, if my Michigan announcement idea pans out, maybe Romney hops accross the OH/MI stateline either late on the 14th or on the morning of the 15th and announces his pick.

Finally, The Twitter tells me Romney will campaign with McDonnell in VA and with Portman in OH.

Yes, she'll be on the bus tour. I still don't get MI because while it is his original home state 'tis also firmly in the Donk column.

Obama announced his choice in Illinois, which was far less competitive.

Maybe Mitt thinks MI can still be in play if he uses the home state card?

Cam this rule out McDonnell and Portman as VP then? McDonnell as lower on the list anyways even if this is starting in Virginia.

Probably. Another reminder: Pawlenty is in NH on the 11th, something that's long been scheduled. Good news for Ryanistas like myself. ;)


Halperin lays out the ground rules.

http://thepage.time.com/2012/08/06/veepstakes-basics/

Maybe the bus tour is for the purpose of telling some of the VP prospects in their home states that they're off the short list.  For example, when Romney is at a campaign stop in Virginia, he says:

"Bob McDonnell....Is Governor McDonnell here?  There you are Governor, please come up to the podium with me.  Isn't he a fantastic governor, Virginia?"  [cheers erupt from the crowd]

"Now Governor, I just wanted to tell you in front of all of these constituents of yours, and all of these news cameras, that you are........NOT going to be my running mate."  [The smile on McDonnell's face slowly fades, and his eyes well up with tears.]

Then he does the same in Florida with Rubio and in Ohio with Portman.  ;)

The tribe has spoken, now place your extinguished torch over there and leave VP island.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/romneys-vp-list-seems-to-get-shorter-as-gop-convention-speakers-are-announced/2012/08/06/60e6b698-dff6-11e1-8fc5-a7dcf1fc161d_story.html


Here's what I've been able to piece together about Romney's whereabouts for the coming week and a half:

Monday: With senior aides at his NH home (probably talking about veepstakes)
Tuesday: Elk Grove Village, IL
Wednesday: Des Moines, IA
Thursday: breakfast and lunchtime fundraisers in NYC area
Friday: ??? (Ann flies back from London)
Saturday: bus tour begins in Virginia
Sunday: bus tour in North Carolina
Monday: bus tour in Florida
Tuesday: bus tour ends in Ohio
Wednesday and beyond: ???

So the VP rollout will probably be next week. By the time his bus tour finished it'll be C-12. Perfect time for a rollout which leads into the convention.

I shouted "AWWWWW" :(

So it'll be a surprise pick in Jeff Probst? :D

On VP selection, look to Wikipedia: (http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/08/on-veep-selection-look-to-wikipedia-131262.html?hp=l5)

Survivor: Tampa.

Time to look for veep clues in Mitt Romney's grocery list:

http://www.mercurynews.com/presidentelect/ci_21252766/cart-maybe-hint-about-romneys-pick


WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

...People came over.  Apparently Romney eats like a wasp and drinks like a mormon, which is one notch above a starvation diet in my book.   

The fact that Romney bought Wild Cherry Pepsi means that he's going to make a wild pick.  And the fact that he bought Greek yogurt means that he's going to impose austerity on his running mate.

Paul Ryan is a P90xer ...he probably would be a yogurt guy.  He doesn't imbibe anything unhealthy outside of a cup of coffee in the mourning. 

Veep search leader Beth Myers is the one who asked Nikki Haley to speak at the convention.  Christian Heinze wonders if this is how all of the convention speakers are approached:

http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/08/beth-myers-asked-haley-to-speak-at.html

Ryan fun facts.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/things-rep-paul-ryan/story?id=16912974

The Atlantic pumps T-Paw.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/08/why-pawlenty-is-the-goldilocks-candidate-for-vice-president/260667/

All this talk about waiting until Ann returns from London...could we be missing the most obvious hint of all? Romney - Rafalca 2012?

...So he turned down Portman's job.  I didn't know that. 

Nor did I. Thankfully he didn't accept that poisoned chalice.

Martinez reiterates that she was never contacted by the Romney campaign about vetting:

http://www.newschannel10.com/story/19205113/nm-gov-tapped-to-speak-at-gop-convention

Forget the Wiki theory.

Also, Rubio joins the bus tour.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/08/veep-beat-the-veeps-on-the-bus/
 
Chem is key.

http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/08/the-case-for-rapport.html

FF

Paul Ryan is a militant atheist? :P

Pawlenty joins the bus tour.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/08/07/vp-contenders-in-the-field-for-romney/

The anti-boring backlash.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/08/07/romney-risks-a-worse-vp-pick-than-palin-by-going-with-boring-choice.html

This tells me that either A) The pick won't be announced on the bus tour, or B) Pawlenty won't be chosen.

I have a feeling that Obama will end up using one of America's most celebrated and beloved authors against Ryan. That could cause problems.

One final caution: as Halperin said yesterday it depends on the strategy. If this is Obama '08 Veep strategizing on Boston's part, then yeah, 'tis musical chairs. And only one reputed shortlister has not been on the stump recently- in fact, we know that he's back at home.

Guess who.

;)

Drudge has an article saying Romney may have met with David Petraeus about being VP in New Hampshire. Expect his Intrade stock to rise.

Was he even trading? Also LOL at Drudge's increasingly laughable feints.

Rafalca was born in Germany, so she's not eligible to be Mitt's running mate.

She's celebrated and beloved mainly by people who don't study literature and have terrible taste in it. I don't even understand her political and ideological value when there are plenty of genuinely talented libertarian genre fiction authors out there and have been for most of the recent past.

What this indicates about Ryan's political beliefs most people already knew. What it indicates about his taste in literature and culture is worrying.

Given that Costa was the first to break news of Ryan's vetting back in June... a pretty big tea leaf.

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/313326/ryan-rises-robert-costa

Ryan is looking more and more likely...

I'm 100% certain it's going to be Ryan.

Im 99.9% certain...Rubio is still a possibility, I think.