Talk Elections

Assuming Walker wins the recall a lot of Republicans are going to be excited about their prospects. However I think it's a red herring for them. The state has a pretty constant D+2-3 PVI and its demographics are fairly steady, therefore unlikely to swing significantly one way. The recall electorate is also much more midterm like and polls show more Republicans generally plan to vote. Not to mention Romney isn't the best candidate for the state either.

40-50%. The trends in this state couldn't be more obvious to the unbiased political analyst.

By the time the fall comes around the Walker recall election is old news and the focus is on the presidential race. If Obama is tied or ahead nationally there's virtually no chance Romney can win the state.

As in how the state trended Democratic in both 2004 and 2008?

Wisconsin, as usual, will vote slightly more Democratic than the national average.

If Obama falls a lot more with uneducated whites relative to educated whites, as polls indicate, then Wisconsin may be a tipping point state.

If Walker wins the recall (which I expect he will), then Wisconsin will be in play, and more so than it is now.

Why? I mean it's something of an indication of Republican support, but do you think there some kind of discrete energising effect that will occur if Walker wins by 1 vote but not if he loses by 1 vote?

I've read that the improving economy in Wisconsin is helping Walker a lot with his recall. The unemployment rate is falling in the state, which the governor has been able to tout.

If that is the case, Obama will benefit from this, NOT Romney.

I expect Wisconsin to gradually revert to the status quo (Obama ahead, Obama winning the state) once the recall is over.

If the recall election was in November, or even in October or September then it might have an effect significant enough to put the State in play in a close election.

Coming so early, the only way this might put Wisconsin in the position of being the state that puts Romney over 270 would be if it is Obama/Biden v. Romney/Walker in November.

Those chances only exist if he picks Ryan as VP.

Otherwise Obama by 5-10 points.

WI at the moment's going to be close but Romney can certainly win it. Alot IMO depends on if and by how much Walker win's the recall.

It's well-documented that public approval and support rises after an election victory and drops after an election defeat. So, yes, there actually is a 'discrete energising effect'.

Romney's chances? Maybe 20-30%. Wisconsin is gonna be like Pennsylvaia or Michigan; GOP's gonna make a few gains in what are now swing states, and those swing states will swing to Obama.

Quite high of course. The new voting patterns in WOW will give him a solid shot.

His chances are extremely low. Dane County is fastest growing county in the state and it is getting more progressive each year. African Americans in Milwaukee have not turned out that well in recent elections but that should change with Obama on the top of the ticket. The Fox River Valley is trending towards the Democrats. Lastly, the 5-10% of Democrats that don't believe in recalls and won't be voting in next weeks election will be back in November. All of these factors should be able to cancel out the circle of ignorance and the Northwoods boondocks.     

The 2004 Presidential Election Results from Wisconsin were very very tight. The 2008 Presidential Election yes Wisconsin trended a little over the National Average voting Dem by like 4 points over the national average.

Very very low. Although he will perform well there, but I can't imagine in a state where there is a lot of union workers and liberals I can't see someone like Romney win WI.

I wonder if it is possible that a Scott Walker victory will depress Democratic turnout in November, given Obama's isolation from this race, and the unwillingness of the DNC to get involved. Labor may be feeling spiteful.

Actually, St. Croix county grew quite a bit faster. And is nicely Republican too.

Dane County of course can't outvote the entire state. See Prosser.

You are correct, but from July 1, 2010 to July 1, 2011 Dane County added 6,769 people compared to St. Croix adding 516 people. http://www.census.gov/popest/data/counties/totals/2011/CO-EST2011-05.html

Of course Dane County can't outvote the entire state, but it's one of the many factors that gives the state its liberal leaning, especially in Presidential elections. 

This I'm not so confident of, although it did definitely trend that way in 2008.

As some others have discussed in different parts of the forum, Obama did unusually well in areas of the midwest that are manufacturing-oriented but have a Republican tradition and have more medium-sized manufacturers that lack the mass union tradition of the big auto and steelmakers: places like western Ohio, much of Indiana, and eastern Wisconsin.

It's very early to know really how subregions like this are going to go, but my very preliminary sense is that Obama is not that popular in these areas and they are likely to swing back.

Im not saying this area won't swing back to the Republicans, but in general this area is slowly moving towards the Democrats. Right now I would say its Republican leaning tossup region of the state. Brown County will go for Romney because of the conservative Green Bay suburbs, but I think Outagamie County and especially Winnebago County will be close in November. Prosser only won Winnebago County by about 2,000 votes.

Walker and Obama currently have the middle in the state.  After Walker wins he could start working to move 'his' middle toward Romney, something he's been to busy to do lately.  Then, it comes down to turnout.  Wisconsin might have the best state GOP in the country right now, hence Reince Priebus's promotion to RNC chair.  Look at the local star power the GOP has.  Walker, Ryan, Johnson, Thompson(probably) vs Nobody on the dem side.  People have seen the dark underside of democrat politics for the last year and a half and may punish them.  The WisDems need to go into the wilderness for a while.     

Fox Valley leans GOP, you may see a trend toward 'leans slightly less GOP'  ...whatever. 

Dane County isn't out growing the combined WOW counties or the rest of the state.  Waukesha basically counterweights Dane by itself.  The WOW's will grow to counterweight Dane AND Milwaukee county eventually.  The rest of the state is lean to strong GOP.

If Romney runs 51% nationally, than Wisconsin is likely in the Romney column.             

C'mon people, let's put some numbers out there.  Obama won Wisconsin by more than 14 points in 2008.  I say this year he loses by more than 2.

...16 points? Really?

Please, give us your projection for the election. I'm sure we'd all love to see your reasoning.

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I'd assume it's something like this?

Romney wins the state only if President Obama collapses overall as a leader (no sign yet) or Governor Scott Walker rigs the statewide election.

Maybe this is more like it:

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I don't think you understand that 2008 has almost zero relevance to 2012 in a state like Wisconsin.  It's basically a 50/50 state that can swing 2% either way.  Tidal wave climates make some weird things happen.  I see zero chance of Obama having another tidal wave at his back.     

Yes, that's why Bush narrowly took it in '04.

He basically did.  

Infamous incidents of:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2005-01-24-tires-slashed_x.htm
 Gwen Moore's Son and other dems slashing the tires of 25 GOP vans on election day 2004
--Vote suppression

http://rnla.org/blogs/blogs/public/archive/2011/11/21/smokes-for-votes-then-cigs-for-sigs-now.aspx
Many including a New York Millionaire democrat operative caught bribing people to vote in exchange for cigarettes in 2004
-- electioneering

There were a lot of incidents of mentally unaware seniors magically voting via absentee ballot despite not being able to spell their name.      

A dozen college students admitted to voting twice.  

Voting drives packed the rolls with thousands of fake names.    
--Vote fraud

That was all proved criminally.  Some other fraud may have occurred that benefited the dems considering how easy it is to do it without getting caught and they got caught so often.      

Needless to say, the proved criminal activity on the dem side combined with the 0.4% or 11,000 votes Kerry "won" by, did not inspire confidence in the integrity of the election.      
 

Not good.

As reported by CNN, exit polling in the recall vote showing even should Walker the Republican win the recall, and I believe he will, voters in Wisconsin still favor Obama over Romney 51 to 45.

But this is only June, and who knows how uynemployment and the economy will look like in November.

Yes, I'm sure if you wish hard enough the economy will get much much worse.

Cynic!

You have to factor in the exit poll Barrett bias. The exits are great news for Romney. If he is only down by 6 in the exits and those exits have a 12 point Barrett bias, that means Romney is actually up by about 6. This extrapolation may be off by a point or so, but Wisco is a toss-up, maybe lean very slightly Romney.

LOL no.

You can laugh at the numbers all you want. Go believe those PPP polls. Obviously there will be a lot of events that may change the course of the election in the next 6 months. But at this point, the true weighted exit polls show that the people that voted today would have picked Romney over Obama. I'll take that as a more accurate view of the electorate than any automated phone survey anyday.  If Wisco voted tomorrow, Romney wins. And I guarantee Team Obama thinks its a toss us.

How is it a no?

Bush only lost WI by 1% (11,000) votes in 2004, and much less in 2000 where he only lost by less than 6,000!.....2008 doesn't count because McCain stood NO chance after the perception of the GOP after Bush's second term. NONE. Palin didn't help either, mind.

Whereas, a few months before the 2012 election, Walker is currently winning in a landslide.

Trends, trends, trends. To ignore trends would be naive. Anything can happen in 5 months, sure. But as of June 2012, I think WI gets slotted back into the "toss up" column akin to the Bush/Kerry margin, and within the margin of error for a Romney win.

Hardly illogical thinking, no?

The exit poll with Walker +4 had Obama +12. Adjust it for the final margin of Walker's likely 6-9 pt win and it's Obama +6-8 just like every poll currently has. It is very unlikely that Wisconsin will push Romney over 270. He will only win there if he's already won nationally. Same goes for Obama regarding Florida, North Carolina.

LOL at the GOP hackery in this thread.

There is no exit poll Barrett bias, absentee ballots could not be "exit polled".

Exit polls did not make that much of a difference. There was clearly a bias towards Barrett, considering it said he was tied and he lost by 7-8 points. Wasn't even that close - around same margin as McCain and Obama.

Well, thank you for your objective contribution to the thread.

It was about as close to a tie as it was to McCain/Obama.  Obama won by about 14 points.

It's not a toss-up unless the Obama campaign is as poor as the Wisconsin Dem party. Obama wouldn't allow himself to get destroyed in the air, and his GOTV effort would be better. It's a "Tilt Obama".

If Scott Walker got to take credit for job creation in the state, by extension so does Obama.

Don't forget there's a difference between "educated" and "schooled". 

My prediction made last year of Romney winning Wisconsin (or more accurately, since I didn't know who would be the GOP nominee, of Obama losing Wisconsin) looks even more accurate this morning.

I see I already commented, pre-recall election, on this prospect.

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/exit-poll-wi-play-november/582041

Michael Barone and I think it's pretty obvious Wisconsin is in play and the exit polls show Romney is even with Obama despite zero campaigning. 

"Zero campaigning" - Wisconsin was one of the major primary battlegrounds. Was Romney there for that?

Barone is not what he once was and has a significant Republican bias.

The Exit Poll (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/06/05/us/politics/wisconsin-recall-exit-polls.html) shows Obama with 51% and Romney with 44%.

What "Exit Poll" are you talking about ?

Barone assumed the Exit Poll's 4% or so bias to the Dems per the actual Walker Barrett vote can be carried over to the Obama Romney figures, erasing Obama's lead. He's probably right.

What 4% bias ?

The exit poll started off with an even race, and Walker ended up winning by 7% I think. So that is a 3.5% bias.

Click on the link:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/06/05/us/politics/wisconsin-recall-exit-polls.html

The final Exit Poll has Walker winning by 7 and Obama winning by 7.

You don't need to adjust it for any "bias", because these are the final results after all Exit Poll waves incl. the people who were still waiting in line when the polls closed.

The re-adjusted exit poll (they always re-adjust) showed the actual recall margin and Obama up 51-45, there was no additional re-adjustment needed. Earlier in the night, the spread was around 54-42 Obama, which gradually fell to the 51-45 result.

He should definitely invest time and money there. Not loads of either ATM, but at least get a footprint going.

If you read Barone's piece, it's mostly handwaving and wishful thinking. Maybe Romney has a chance in WI and if the trend for Obama goes south he certainly does, but this doesn't prove it.

OK, Barone has his numbers, and you have yours. (I thought I recall the 51-45 thing as the original number, but pay me no mind; memory is the second thing to go.) So one of you is right!  :)

I'll go with the #s of the guy who linked over the lazy who said "The Wisconsin exit poll evidently reported the race for governor in the recall ballot as 50%-50%."

I recall seeing a Bob Dole commercial for a memory pill.  Am I wrong?

Dole did shill for a pill, but as I recall it was for making memories a reality again. ;)