Talk Elections

Poll: Obama leads in Virginia

President Obama has a five point lead over Mitt Romney in Virginia, according to a new poll.

Quinnipiac's latest survey shows Obama besting Romney 47 to 42 percent in the state. That's down slightly from March, where Obama led Romney by 8 points, 50 percent to 42 percent.

Adding Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell to the Republican ticket does not significantly alter the result, the poll finds. The Obama-Biden ticket still beats the Romney-McDonnell ticket 48 percent to 43 percent.

As in other states, Obama has built his small lead on women — where he leads 51 percent to 35 percent. Romney edges Obama among men, 49 to 44 percent.

"His lead over Romney is built upon a continuing gender gap that favors him – essentially the president stays close among men while he is very strong among women,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of Quinnipiac polling.

Obama became the first Democrat to win Virginia since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/06/obama-leads-in-virginia-125524.html

Is Obama's previous advantage returning? We need CO/NV/IA!

It's really hard to see VA and FL voting 11 points apart as per these Q polls. Really hard.

I can see it. Especially the way 2008 trended and 2010 went in Florida.

There was a 4% difference in '08; it's not impossible for me to see it.

It's possible:

In 2000, VA was 8.0% MORE Republican than FL.

In 2004, VA was 3.2% MORE Republican than FL.

In 2008, VA was 3.5% LESS Republican than FL.

If these trends continue, VA will be about 8-11% more Democratic than FL this year.

If those trends continue VA will eventually be >100% more Democratic than FL.

The 2008 trend in VA was driven in part by people in the Torie income bracket in NoVa shifting to Obama. They're swinging back to the Republicans somewhat. It's hard to see VA voting substantially more D in 2012 than it did in 2008 unless the national baseline is moving.

I have a hard time seeing such a sustained and dramatic change in 12 years. That's like comparing Vermont and West Virginia from 1988 to 2008 or similar.

It's not hard to believe that VA will be about 53-44 (especially if Goode makes the ballot).

And FL either a tie, or 1 or 2 points in either direction.

Sarcasm fail?

Lack of transition fail. I was agreeing with you.

They have been moving that way for sometime, its not exactly anything new.   I don't see them swinging back to the GOP.  Perhaps for the Romney of 2002, but that Romney would never have won the GOP nomination.