Talk Elections

General Politics => Political Geography & Demographics => Topic started by: All Along The Watchtower on June 08, 2012, 12:28:33 PM



Title: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: All Along The Watchtower on June 08, 2012, 12:28:33 PM
In this thread, describe a hypothetical place in the US using demographic data, and have other posters guess how it would vote.

Type: Suburban
Region: Midwest
Population: 105,000
Race: White (75%), Latino (11%), Black (10%), Asian (2%), Other (2%)
Median Household Income: $63,441
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 47%
Religion: Catholic (56%), Mainline Protestant (23%), Evangelical Protestant (14%), Other (7%)
Percentage of married couple households: 72%


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: freepcrusher on June 08, 2012, 12:34:01 PM
In this thread, describe a hypothetical place in the US using demographic data, and have other posters guess how it would vote.

Type: Suburban
Region: Midwest
Population: 105,000
Race: White (75%), Latino (11%), Black (10%), Asian (2%), Other (2%)
Median Household Income: $63,441
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 47%
Religion: Catholic (56%), Mainline Protestant (23%), Evangelical Protestant (14%), Other (7%)
Percentage of married couple households: 72%


an area that comes to mind is an area like MN 3 that is pretty much marginal turf politically (although more favorable to republicans downballot)


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: TJ in Oregon on June 08, 2012, 12:45:15 PM
It depends heavily on the history of the metropolitan area it's a suburb of. If it's an ancestrally German metro area like Cincinnati or Milwaukee, probably Republican. If it's more Eastern European or Irish like Cleveland or Chicago, more swingy or possibly Democratic. The income level looks a bit too high to me for it to be really Democratic. Then again, the religious affiliation level looks really low to be Republican unless there is some Evangelical component that is religious but doesn't show up in affiliation stats.


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: All Along The Watchtower on June 11, 2012, 02:27:55 PM
It depends heavily on the history of the metropolitan area it's a suburb of. If it's an ancestrally German metro area like Cincinnati or Milwaukee, probably Republican. If it's more Eastern European or Irish like Cleveland or Chicago, more swingy or possibly Democratic. The income level looks a bit too high to me for it to be really Democratic. Then again, the religious affiliation level looks really low to be Republican unless there is some Evangelical component that is religious but doesn't show up in affiliation stats.

Interesting points. And yeah, I guess I did make the religious affiliation too low. :P


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on June 11, 2012, 02:40:14 PM
Type: Rural
Region: South
Population: 23,000
Race: White (61%), Black (27%), Latino (5%), Asian (4%), Other (3%)
Median Household Income: $79,756
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 80%
Religion: Evangelical Protestant (60%), Catholic (17%), Mainline Protestant (15%), Jewish (2%) Other (6%)
Percentage of married couple households: 58%


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: bore on June 11, 2012, 02:48:45 PM
Type: Rural
Region: South
Population: 23,000
Race: White (61%), Black (27%), Latino (5%), Asian (4%), Other (3%)
Median Household Income: $79,756
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 80%
Religion: Evangelical Protestant (60%), Catholic (17%), Mainline Protestant (15%), Jewish (2%) Other (6%)
Percentage of married couple households: 58%

About 65% R bearing in mind these are rich southern whites.


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: All Along The Watchtower on June 11, 2012, 03:21:54 PM
Type: Rural
Region: South
Population: 23,000
Race: White (61%), Black (27%), Latino (5%), Asian (4%), Other (3%)
Median Household Income: $79,756
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 80%
Religion: Evangelical Protestant (60%), Catholic (17%), Mainline Protestant (15%), Jewish (2%) Other (6%)
Percentage of married couple households: 58%

About 65% R bearing in mind these are rich southern whites.

It's rural rich Southern white, so more like 70-75% R. :P


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on June 11, 2012, 03:38:44 PM
Places like Ben's example simply don't exist.


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: RI on June 11, 2012, 05:42:15 PM

It sounds like what a small rural county might look like nowadays if slavery were still legal.


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: TJ in Oregon on June 12, 2012, 12:33:32 AM
I don't think so. 17% Catholic is way too high for the rural south even if it is 5% Latino. 80% affiliated with a religious congregation also is probably higher than you can actually find anywhere for a primarily Evangelical area because many Evangelical churches do not have a well-defined concept of affiliation or have many unaffiliated congregants. To have 80% you would need to be in a Catholic or Lutheran area where affiliation itself is a large part of the cultural identity.


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: tpfkaw on June 12, 2012, 12:47:20 AM
Type: Urban (neighborhood)
Region: Northeast
Population: 37,000
Race: White (81%), Black (7%), Latino (5%), Asian (5%), Other (2%)
Median Household Income: $42,000
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 49%
Religion: Catholic (79%), Mainline Protestant (9%), Evangelical Protestant (1%), Other (11%)
Percentage of married couple households: 59%


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on June 12, 2012, 12:48:42 AM
I don't think so. 17% Catholic is way too high for the rural south even if it is 5% Latino. 80% affiliated with a religious congregation also is probably higher than you can actually find anywhere for a primarily Evangelical area because many Evangelical churches do not have a well-defined concept of affiliation or have many unaffiliated congregants. To have 80% you would need to be in a Catholic or Lutheran area where affiliation itself is a large part of the cultural identity.

Surely there's somewhere in rural Louisiana that is at least 17% Catholic.


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on June 12, 2012, 12:50:30 AM
I don't think so. 17% Catholic is way too high for the rural south even if it is 5% Latino. 80% affiliated with a religious congregation also is probably higher than you can actually find anywhere for a primarily Evangelical area because many Evangelical churches do not have a well-defined concept of affiliation or have many unaffiliated congregants. To have 80% you would need to be in a Catholic or Lutheran area where affiliation itself is a large part of the cultural identity.

It could be in Louisiana. 17% Catholic isn't too far fetched for somewhere like central Virginia or western Tennessee either. The 80% affiliated in general is a bit too far fetched though and even moreso is 2% Jewish. In the rural South even 0.2% Jewish would be hard to find.

But that's not really what I was objecting to. Rather it was the income level. You don't have rural places in the South that are over a quarter black that have a median income of almost $80k and that are also 5% Latino. That's only feasible if it's really some exurb (like all those ugly places in Georgia), but then it's going to be a hell of a lot whiter, or at least have a higher Latino than black population. 4% Asian and 3% "Other" too, so it's 12% non-white or black. Try finding a rural southern county with a non-white/black population in the double digits percentage (with the obvious exception of that Reservation area in North Carolina and any similar area.) Those racial numbers actually look like a south central Minneapolis neighborhood near the I-35W corridor, which obviously you won't find replicated in the rural south. The only way I could possibly see those numbers working is if there was some type of college in the town, and even that would drive the income numbers down, that being my main objection.


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on June 12, 2012, 12:51:41 AM
Type: Urban (neighborhood)
Region: Northeast
Population: 37,000
Race: White (81%), Black (7%), Latino (5%), Asian (5%), Other (2%)
Median Household Income: $42,000
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 49%
Religion: Catholic (79%), Mainline Protestant (9%), Evangelical Protestant (1%), Other (11%)
Percentage of married couple households: 59%

This sounds like a working class neighborhood in Boston or somewhere like where Keystone Phil lives, so probably around 50-60% Obama. 1% evangelical for a 7% black neighborhood though isn't feasible and even ignoring that this place would have to be incredibly insular and isolated if that few people have converted, even San Francisco is well over 1% evangelical.


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: tpfkaw on June 12, 2012, 12:56:58 AM
I was under the impression HBCs were considered "mainline."


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on June 12, 2012, 01:02:40 AM
They can be quite diverse (we even have black Lutheran churches here believe it or not), but obviously not all (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Church_of_God_in_Christ) would be considered mainline. Even if we assume that is the case in this area though you still have only 1% of people having converted to an evangelical church, which I doubt is even the case in the Castro District.


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on June 12, 2012, 01:05:40 AM
For the OP, the only places I can see such a city being feasible are suburban Chicago or somewhere in Ohio, in the former it'd probably be well over 60% Obama but inflated obviously, for the latter probably around 50/50.


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: tpfkaw on June 12, 2012, 11:34:24 AM
This is a real place:

Type: Suburban
Region: Northeast
Population: 28,000
Race: White (80%), Asian (12%), Latino (5%), Black (1%), Other (2%)
Median Household Income: $140,000
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 66%
Religion (of those who attend services): Catholic (77%), Mainline Protestant (12%), Evangelical Protestant (2%), Other (9%, mainly Jewish)
Percentage of married couple households: 64%


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: Del Tachi on June 12, 2012, 02:02:14 PM
Also a real place,

Type: Small town
Region: South
Population: 24,000
Race: White (65%), Black (29%), Asian (4%), Hispanic (1%) Other (1%)
Median Household Income: $22,590
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 48%
Religion (of those who attend services): Evangelical Protestant (44%), Mainline Protestant (32%), Catholic (18%), Muslim (2%), Jewish (1%), Others (3%)   
Percent of married couple households: 34%



Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: bore on June 12, 2012, 02:35:46 PM
Also a real place,

Type: Small town
Region: South
Population: 24,000
Race: White (65%), Black (29%), Asian (4%), Hispanic (1%) Other (1%)
Median Household Income: $22,590
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 48%
Religion (of those who attend services): Evangelical Protestant (44%), Mainline Protestant (32%), Catholic (18%), Muslim (2%), Jewish (1%), Others (3%)   
Percent of married couple households: 34%



Just eyeing the white percentage I'd say about 65% R

This is a real place:

Type: Suburban
Region: Northeast
Population: 28,000
Race: White (80%), Asian (12%), Latino (5%), Black (1%), Other (2%)
Median Household Income: $140,000
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 66%
Religion (of those who attend services): Catholic (77%), Mainline Protestant (12%), Evangelical Protestant (2%), Other (9%, mainly Jewish)
Percentage of married couple households: 64%

That could either be a super republican exurb or a formerly rockefeller republican now solidly  (60-70) democratic town, although I'd lean towards the democratic option


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: Del Tachi on June 12, 2012, 02:57:55 PM
Also a real place,

Type: Small town
Region: South
Population: 24,000
Race: White (65%), Black (29%), Asian (4%), Hispanic (1%) Other (1%)
Median Household Income: $22,590
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 48%
Religion (of those who attend services): Evangelical Protestant (44%), Mainline Protestant (32%), Catholic (18%), Muslim (2%), Jewish (1%), Others (3%)   
Percent of married couple households: 34%



Just eyeing the white percentage I'd say about 65% Republican

You would be wrong.  This is Starkville, Mississippi--home of Mississippi State University--a college town that voted for Obama in 2008.


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: tpfkaw on June 12, 2012, 03:08:15 PM
That could either be a super republican exurb or a formerly rockefeller republican now solidly  (60-70) democratic town, although I'd lean towards the democratic option

The second is correct; it's Wellesley, MA, ground zero for the latte liberal.  Until 1988, it only once voted for a Democrat (LBJ in 1964, and narrowly), and until recently it sent Republicans to the State House (including arch-conservative Proposition 2 1/2 author Roy Switzer in the 70s and 80s; he was defeated 60-40 trying to regain his old seat in 2010).  It has voted for Democrats every election since 1992, voted 65% for Obama in 2008, and was won by Martha Coakley by a razor-thin margin of 12 votes against Scott Brown.  (Good that you got it even though my religion statistics were wrong; they're for Norfolk County - I was thinking that the Jewish percentage looked very low).


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: bore on June 12, 2012, 03:21:35 PM
Also a real place,

Type: Small town
Region: South
Population: 24,000
Race: White (65%), Black (29%), Asian (4%), Hispanic (1%) Other (1%)
Median Household Income: $22,590
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 48%
Religion (of those who attend services): Evangelical Protestant (44%), Mainline Protestant (32%), Catholic (18%), Muslim (2%), Jewish (1%), Others (3%)   
Percent of married couple households: 34%



Just eyeing the white percentage I'd say about 65% Republican

You would be wrong.  This is Starkville, Mississippi--home of Mississippi State University--a college town that voted for Obama in 2008.

Interesting, I thought something seemed different with the religious data, but in the end the south and small town won me (wrongly) over.


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: Del Tachi on June 12, 2012, 03:35:05 PM
Also a real place,

Type: Small town
Region: South
Population: 24,000
Race: White (65%), Black (29%), Asian (4%), Hispanic (1%) Other (1%)
Median Household Income: $22,590
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 48%
Religion (of those who attend services): Evangelical Protestant (44%), Mainline Protestant (32%), Catholic (18%), Muslim (2%), Jewish (1%), Others (3%)   
Percent of married couple households: 34%



Just eyeing the white percentage I'd say about 65% Republican

You would be wrong.  This is Starkville, Mississippi--home of Mississippi State University--a college town that voted for Obama in 2008.

Interesting, I thought something seemed different with the religious data, but in the end the south and small town won me (wrongly) over.

The low percentage of households with married couples would have also been a large indicator of a very young (college aged) population.


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: Sbane on June 12, 2012, 03:58:47 PM
Where are you guys getting the religious data?

Try and guess this one which is a real city in Southern California:

Type: Suburban
Region: Southern California
Population: 48,527
Race: White (38%), Black (2.3%), Asian (17.8%), Hispanic (39.7%)
Median Household Income: $79,347



Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: Del Tachi on June 12, 2012, 04:15:47 PM
Where are you guys getting the religious data?

Try and guess this one which is a real city in Southern California:

Type: Suburban
Region: Southern California
Population: 48,527
Race: White (38%), Black (2.3%), Asian (17.8%), Hispanic (39.7%)
Median Household Income: $79,347



La Mirada?


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: tpfkaw on June 12, 2012, 04:17:44 PM
Where are you guys getting the religious data?

Was googling "town name religious demographics," but it turns out the website with that data was for the county, not the town.


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: Del Tachi on June 12, 2012, 05:06:09 PM
Here’s a fictional one:

DEMOGRAPHICS
Name: Midtown
Type: Small town
Region: Upper South/Appalachia/Rust Belt
Population: 16,523
Race: White (93%), Black (5%), Other (2%).  Hispanics represent 11% of the population.
Age distribution: Under 18 (20%), Ages 18 to 34 (14%), Ages 35 to 64 (50%), Over 65 (16%)
Percent of married couple households: 67.2%

ECONOMICS
Percent of population of “workable” age (16-64): 66%
Percent of workforce per economic sector:  Manufacturing and Mining (37%), Services-Health Care, Childcare, Education, and Government (29%), Services-Retail (20%), Services-Finance and Marketing (6%), Services-Hospitality and Benevolence (3%), Agriculture (3%), Other (2%)   
Unemployment rate (male, ages 18-64): 20.6%
Unemployment rate (female, ages 18-64): 12.4%
Percent unionized (all workers): 26.9%
Percent unionized (manufacturing only): 38.5%
Median household income: $27,606

RELIGION
Do You Believe in God?: 94% Yes
Percent claiming religious affiliation: 54%
Percent participating in religious services at least “twice monthly”: 32%
Largest religious groups (of those claiming affiliation): Catholic (61%), Evangelical Protestant (25%), Mainline Protestant (13%), Other (1%) 

EDUCATION
Students enrolled in city public schools: 2,314 (97.7%)
Students enrolled in private schools within city limits: 0 (0%)
Students homeschooled: 56 (2.2%)
Students otherwise educated: 16 (0.1%)
High School Graduation Rate: 73.4%
Size of most recent high school graduating class (2012): 143 students
University placement for most recent high school graduating class: 30.4%
Percent of adult population with college degree of any kind (Associates, Bachelor’s, Master’s, Doctoral) : 22%
High School Mascot: Midtown Miners   

LOCAL POLITICS
County Seat? : Yes
Government type: Mayor-Council (weak mayor)
Mayor: Democrat
State House seat: Democrat
State Senate seat: Democrat
Public perception of local government: Locals see their local government as a method by which their town’s social “elite”--in this case representing well-connected individuals whose families have lived in the area for generations--are able to maintain control over their city’s social institutions.  Voter participation and civic engagement are dangerously low and very seldom do incumbents lose reelection.   


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on June 12, 2012, 05:41:58 PM
^sounds like a mining town with a Democratic Union Machine, the type that would have been reliably Democratic prior to 2000, but less so in recent years. Probably votes around 55-45 Romney, with low turnout.


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: morgieb on June 12, 2012, 06:18:29 PM
Not a real place:

Type: Large town
Region: North-East/New England
Population: 114,634
Race: White (91%), Black (3%), Asian (1%), Other (5%). Hispanics represent 9.2% of the population.
Median Household Income: $40,774
Percentage of married couple households: 62%
Unemployment: 12%
Percentage of working age working: 70.4%
Percent unionized: 19%
Percent claiming religious affiliation: 55%
Percent believing in God: 91%
Largest religious groups (of those claiming affiliation): Catholic (59.6%), Evangelical Protestant (9.4%), Mainline Protestant (27.6%), Jewish (1.3%), Other (2.1%)
Percent of adult population with college degree of any kind (Associates, Bachelor’s, Master’s, Doctoral): 43%
Mayor: Independent (former Republican)
State House seat: Republican
State Senate seat: Democrat


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on June 12, 2012, 11:14:20 PM
Not a real place:

Type: Large town
Region: North-East/New England
Population: 114,634
Race: White (91%), Black (3%), Asian (1%), Other (5%). Hispanics represent 9.2% of the population.
Median Household Income: $40,774
Percentage of married couple households: 62%
Unemployment: 12%
Percentage of working age working: 70.4%
Percent unionized: 19%
Percent claiming religious affiliation: 55%
Percent believing in God: 91%
Largest religious groups (of those claiming affiliation): Catholic (59.6%), Evangelical Protestant (9.4%), Mainline Protestant (27.6%), Jewish (1.3%), Other (2.1%)
Percent of adult population with college degree of any kind (Associates, Bachelor’s, Master’s, Doctoral): 43%
Mayor: Independent (former Republican)
State House seat: Republican
State Senate seat: Democrat
Obama 55/Romney 43


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: Sbane on June 13, 2012, 12:02:29 AM
Where are you guys getting the religious data?

Try and guess this one which is a real city in Southern California:

Type: Suburban
Region: Southern California
Population: 48,527
Race: White (38%), Black (2.3%), Asian (17.8%), Hispanic (39.7%)
Median Household Income: $79,347



La Mirada?

Yup


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: tpfkaw on June 13, 2012, 07:12:41 AM
Another real place:

Type: Small city
Region: West
Population: 55,000
Race: White (71%), Hispanic (21%), Asian (2%), American Indian (2%), Black (2%), Other (2%)
Median Household Income: $52,000
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 37%
Religion (of those who attend services): Catholic (57%), Evangelical Protestant (18%), Mainline Protestant (13%), Others (11%, mainly Mormon) - actually is for the location in question this time!
Percent of married couple households: 46%


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: morgieb on June 13, 2012, 07:39:34 AM
60-40 Romney, most likely. Sounds like some place in Colorado, probably a more conservative one.


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: traininthedistance on June 14, 2012, 05:15:52 AM
Another real place:

Type: Small city
Region: West
Population: 55,000
Race: White (71%), Hispanic (21%), Asian (2%), American Indian (2%), Black (2%), Other (2%)
Median Household Income: $52,000
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 37%
Religion (of those who attend services): Catholic (57%), Evangelical Protestant (18%), Mainline Protestant (13%), Others (11%, mainly Mormon) - actually is for the location in question this time!
Percent of married couple households: 46%

If it wasn't for the relatively high Mormon population, I'd guess you're trying to trick us into saying it's a Republican town when in fact it's super-D Santa Fe.  But there can't be that many Mormons in Santa Fe... can there?

edit:  Never mind, I found the city you're referring to.  It is pretty Republican most of the time, but Obama barely won it in 2008.


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: All Along The Watchtower on June 14, 2012, 11:04:33 AM
Another hypothetical place.

Type: Suburb
Region: West
Population: 52,000
Race: White (84%), Hispanic (11%), Asian (3%), Black (1%), Other (1%)
Median household income: $78,000
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 41%
Religion (of those who attend services): Catholic (52%), Evangelical Protestant (23%), Mainline Protestant (16%) , Others (9%)
Percent of married couple households: 61%
Educational levels of adults: High school graduate (92%), College graduate (56%), Graduate degrees (18%)
 
 


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: Sbane on June 14, 2012, 03:16:41 PM
The west is hard to tell. If the place PR posted was in Socal (which it probably isn't due to the low Hispanic population) it would be Republican. In the Bay Area it would be Democrat. It's probably up in the northwest though and probably votes Republican but voted for Obama. Correct?

Also where are you getting religious data for cities?


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: Napoleon on June 15, 2012, 12:43:16 PM
60-40 Romney, most likely. Sounds like some place in Colorado, probably a more conservative one.

Its Carson City, I'm pretty sure. 55% Romney.


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: All Along The Watchtower on June 16, 2012, 11:24:05 AM
The west is hard to tell. If the place PR posted was in Socal (which it probably isn't due to the low Hispanic population) it would be Republican. In the Bay Area it would be Democrat. It's probably up in the northwest though and probably votes Republican but voted for Obama. Correct?

Also where are you getting religious data for cities?

I was actually thinking of certain suburbs of Denver in Colorado when I posted that.


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: Sbane on June 16, 2012, 01:12:41 PM
That makes sense too. Also didn't notice you said it was hypothetical.


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on June 26, 2012, 02:04:36 PM
In this thread, describe a hypothetical place in the US using demographic data, and have other posters guess how it would vote.

Type: Suburban
Region: Midwest
Population: 105,000
Race: White (75%), Latino (11%), Black (10%), Asian (2%), Other (2%)
Median Household Income: $63,441
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 47%
Religion: Catholic (56%), Mainline Protestant (23%), Evangelical Protestant (14%), Other (7%)
Percentage of married couple households: 72%

Midwest and suburban huh?  That alone gives the answer away... Democrat.


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: BlueDog Bumble on July 06, 2012, 07:20:10 AM

Type: Rural
Region: West
Population: 34,000
Race: White (88%) Latino (7%) Black (2%) (Asian 2%) Other (1%)
Median household income: $52,000
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 54%
Religion (of those who attend services): Catholic (38%), Evangelical Protestant (27%), Mainline Protestant (21%) , Mormon (7%) Jewish (1%) Other (6%)
Percent of married couple households: 66%
Educational levels of adults: High school graduate (90%), College graduate (49%), Graduate degrees (14%)


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on July 18, 2012, 08:37:46 AM

Type: Rural
Region: West
Population: 34,000
Race: White (88%) Latino (7%) Black (2%) (Asian 2%) Other (1%)
Median household income: $52,000
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 54%
Religion (of those who attend services): Catholic (38%), Evangelical Protestant (27%), Mainline Protestant (21%) , Mormon (7%) Jewish (1%) Other (6%)
Percent of married couple households: 66%
Educational levels of adults: High school graduate (90%), College graduate (49%), Graduate degrees (14%)
Republican.


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: frihetsivrare on July 18, 2012, 08:06:10 PM
Type: Small city
Region: Great Plains
Population: 121,000
Race: White (46%) Latino (22%) Oriental (11%) Black (11%) Indian (4%) First Nation (3%) Other (3%)
Median household income: $42,000 with low cost of living
Religious population: 67%
Religion: Protestant (37%) Catholic (24%) Mormon (21%) Jewish (9%) Hindu (4%) Animist (4%) Other (1%)
Percent of adults married: 70%
Percent of total population under 18: 28%
Education level: High school (83%), Bachelor's (38%), Master's and above (6%)

The community is also heavily self-reliant and distrusts outside influence.


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: Sbane on July 20, 2012, 01:05:12 PM
A 4% Hindu city on the Great Plains?


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: frihetsivrare on July 20, 2012, 02:28:36 PM

Yes, I tried to make up very unrealistic demographics. 


Title: Re: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread
Post by: muon2 on July 20, 2012, 07:19:05 PM
Type: Small city
Region: Great Plains
Population: 121,000
Race: White (46%) Latino (22%) Oriental (11%) Black (11%) Indian (4%) First Nation (3%) Other (3%)
Median household income: $42,000 with low cost of living
Religious population: 67%
Religion: Protestant (37%) Catholic (24%) Mormon (21%) Jewish (9%) Hindu (4%) Animist (4%) Other (1%)
Percent of adults married: 70%
Percent of total population under 18: 28%
Education level: High school (83%), Bachelor's (38%), Master's and above (6%)

The community is also heavily self-reliant and distrusts outside influence.

Yes, I tried to make up very unrealistic demographics. 

The 4% Hindu is not as strange as other aspects of the hypothetical. There are a number of pockets of Indian population in the Midwest, though it's more common in bug suburbs than in isolated small cities. For me the stranger aspect is the large mix of minority groups. Except for university towns that's fairly rare. Here's a real set of demographics from a real Midwest city that somewhat matches your population, income, and educational levels, and isn't a suburb.

Population 100-150K
Race: White (60%) Latino (5%) Asian (5%) Black (27%) Other/Multiracial (3%)
Median Household Income $46K
Education level age over 25: High School (88%), Bachelor's (32%)