Title: The Next Decade
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on June 14, 2012, 06:23:50 PM
FINAL RCP POLLING AVERAGE: 47.1 OBAMA, 46.6 ROMNEY
BIDEN GAFFE IN FLORIDA: "CRANKY OLD GUYS" VOTING AGAINST MEDICARE/SS INTERESTS
NOVEMBER JOBS REPORT: 135,000 JOBS CREATED IN BEST MONTH SINCE MARCH
NATE SILVER: SENATE CONTROL PURE TOSSUP; GOP LIKELY TO NARROWLY HOLD HOUSE
FINAL ATLAS POLLING AGGREGATE:
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OBAMA: 247
ROMNEY: 235
BIDEN GAFFE IN FLORIDA: "CRANKY OLD GUYS" VOTING AGAINST MEDICARE/SS INTERESTS
NOVEMBER JOBS REPORT: 135,000 JOBS CREATED IN BEST MONTH SINCE MARCH
NATE SILVER: SENATE CONTROL PURE TOSSUP; GOP LIKELY TO NARROWLY HOLD HOUSE
FINAL ATLAS POLLING AGGREGATE:
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OBAMA: 247
ROMNEY: 235
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on June 14, 2012, 07:54:25 PM
Popcorn at the ready!
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on June 15, 2012, 02:02:35 PM
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Chris Matthews: Welcome back to MSNBC's coverage of the 2012 elections. Polls have now closed in six states, with some polls closed in two more. In addition, several gubernatorial races, 33 Senate seats, and all 435 seats in the House. We begin with presidential projections. As expected, Barack Obama will hold Vermont. Despite its Republican history, Vermont has swung solidly Democratic. Obama won in 2008 by a 2-1 margin, and was still far ahead of Romney in polling.
Kentucky, where some polls closed at 6 P.M., can be called for Governor Romney. Not a surprising result; no Democrat has won here since fellow Southerner Bill Clinton in 1996, and this was a strong John McCain state in 2008. South Carolina, another red state, is projected to fall to the Romney column as expected.
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That gives Romney an early lead of 17 electoral votes to the president's 3.
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Rachel Maddow: As Chris said, there are statewide races to watch tonight. Vermont seems to have a strong Democratic sweep tonight. Independent Bernie Sanders, who caucuses with the Democratic Party, is projected to easily hold his seat against businessman H. Brooke Paige. Governor Peter Shumlin, who won a very tight race in 2010, will win by a comfortable margin against state senator Randy Brock.
Two states to watch at a state level tonight are Indiana and Virginia. Though the state leans towards Romney, the Republican candidate for Senate, Treasurer Richard Mourdock, is in a tight race with Congressman Joe Donnelly. Mourdock, who defeated incumbent Dick Lugar in the GOP primary, is considered to be very conservative, Donnelly is a moderate Democrat with strong appeal to blue-collar voters, and in recent weeks the race has tightened. Virginia, possibly the most high-profile contest of the year, has been a massive battle between two statewide powerhouses: former Governor and DNC chairman Tim Kaine, and former Senator George Allen. Allen lost a tight race in 2006 to incumbent senator Jim Webb, who chose to retire after a single term.
Chris Matthews: Let's go over to Chuck, who has some exit poll analysis.
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Chuck Todd: Thanks Chris. We'll take a look at South Carolina, a state where Romney has been projected winner. That was never truly in doubt, but there is something important to watch here; the African-American vote. Obviously President Obama swept here, winning 94% of African-Americans in the Palmetto State. But turnout is another issue. We don't know how high turnout has been, but it is down from 2008 according to sourced on the ground, especially in heavily black precincts. This is worrying for Obama's efforts in states like Virginia and Florida, where victory hinges on strong turnout from African-Americans. The Obama campaign has a massive get-out-the-vote campaign in those states, so they're hoping not to see these numbers in the battlegrounds where they have heavy infrastructure.
The Romney camp is watching this state from Boston as well. With white voters, it seems that Romney has won by nearly a 3 to 1 margin, similar to the 2008 result. What's the problem? Turnout with whites, especially rural whites, is also down. Romney faced big opposition here in the primaries, and although they're not worried about Obama doing better, they're worried that conservatives won't vote where they're key; again, places like Virginia, Florida, and Ohio.
Chris Matthews: Welcome back to MSNBC's coverage of the 2012 elections. Polls have now closed in six states, with some polls closed in two more. In addition, several gubernatorial races, 33 Senate seats, and all 435 seats in the House. We begin with presidential projections. As expected, Barack Obama will hold Vermont. Despite its Republican history, Vermont has swung solidly Democratic. Obama won in 2008 by a 2-1 margin, and was still far ahead of Romney in polling.
Kentucky, where some polls closed at 6 P.M., can be called for Governor Romney. Not a surprising result; no Democrat has won here since fellow Southerner Bill Clinton in 1996, and this was a strong John McCain state in 2008. South Carolina, another red state, is projected to fall to the Romney column as expected.
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That gives Romney an early lead of 17 electoral votes to the president's 3.
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Rachel Maddow: As Chris said, there are statewide races to watch tonight. Vermont seems to have a strong Democratic sweep tonight. Independent Bernie Sanders, who caucuses with the Democratic Party, is projected to easily hold his seat against businessman H. Brooke Paige. Governor Peter Shumlin, who won a very tight race in 2010, will win by a comfortable margin against state senator Randy Brock.
Two states to watch at a state level tonight are Indiana and Virginia. Though the state leans towards Romney, the Republican candidate for Senate, Treasurer Richard Mourdock, is in a tight race with Congressman Joe Donnelly. Mourdock, who defeated incumbent Dick Lugar in the GOP primary, is considered to be very conservative, Donnelly is a moderate Democrat with strong appeal to blue-collar voters, and in recent weeks the race has tightened. Virginia, possibly the most high-profile contest of the year, has been a massive battle between two statewide powerhouses: former Governor and DNC chairman Tim Kaine, and former Senator George Allen. Allen lost a tight race in 2006 to incumbent senator Jim Webb, who chose to retire after a single term.
Chris Matthews: Let's go over to Chuck, who has some exit poll analysis.
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Chuck Todd: Thanks Chris. We'll take a look at South Carolina, a state where Romney has been projected winner. That was never truly in doubt, but there is something important to watch here; the African-American vote. Obviously President Obama swept here, winning 94% of African-Americans in the Palmetto State. But turnout is another issue. We don't know how high turnout has been, but it is down from 2008 according to sourced on the ground, especially in heavily black precincts. This is worrying for Obama's efforts in states like Virginia and Florida, where victory hinges on strong turnout from African-Americans. The Obama campaign has a massive get-out-the-vote campaign in those states, so they're hoping not to see these numbers in the battlegrounds where they have heavy infrastructure.
The Romney camp is watching this state from Boston as well. With white voters, it seems that Romney has won by nearly a 3 to 1 margin, similar to the 2008 result. What's the problem? Turnout with whites, especially rural whites, is also down. Romney faced big opposition here in the primaries, and although they're not worried about Obama doing better, they're worried that conservatives won't vote where they're key; again, places like Virginia, Florida, and Ohio.
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on June 16, 2012, 05:18:42 PM
Rachel Maddow: Three more states have closed their polls at this hour. West Virginia can be projected for Romney. Once a Democratic stronghold, social conservatism has pushed West Virginia to lean Republican at a national level. A state that closed earlier can also be called for Romney. Georgia, with 16 electoral votes, was competitive in 2008, and the Obama camp hoped they could put it in play. Not so, as our exit polls suggest a 10-point victory for Governor Romney.
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Obama: 3
Romney: 38
However, the Democrats do have good news down ballot. In two rematches of earlier elections, incumbent senator Joe Manchin will defeat businessman John Raese by over a 2 to 1 margin. Manchin is a noted conservative Democrat, and gave a lukewarm endorsement of President Obama after earlier stating he was undecided. Earl Ray Tomblin, the incumbent governor who succeeded Manchin, will also win easily against Bill Maloney.
Chris Matthews: Two major battlegrounds this year have also closed; the states of Ohio and North Carolina. No candidate has lost Ohio and won the election since Jack Kennedy in 1960, and as usual it may just decide the election. North Carolina leans a bit more towards Romney, but it has been trending Democratic, and the Democrats held their convention in Charlotte in hopes of winning it again. Both states are too close to call as of yet.
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Obama: 3
Romney: 38
However, the Democrats do have good news down ballot. In two rematches of earlier elections, incumbent senator Joe Manchin will defeat businessman John Raese by over a 2 to 1 margin. Manchin is a noted conservative Democrat, and gave a lukewarm endorsement of President Obama after earlier stating he was undecided. Earl Ray Tomblin, the incumbent governor who succeeded Manchin, will also win easily against Bill Maloney.
Chris Matthews: Two major battlegrounds this year have also closed; the states of Ohio and North Carolina. No candidate has lost Ohio and won the election since Jack Kennedy in 1960, and as usual it may just decide the election. North Carolina leans a bit more towards Romney, but it has been trending Democratic, and the Democrats held their convention in Charlotte in hopes of winning it again. Both states are too close to call as of yet.
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: President von Cat on June 19, 2012, 10:58:11 AM
Upping for truth and justice.
Seriously though, nice work so far!
Seriously though, nice work so far!
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: morgieb on June 20, 2012, 01:07:07 AM
Looking interesting.
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: Jerseyrules on June 21, 2012, 02:42:06 PM
Looking interesting.
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on June 21, 2012, 04:38:50 PM
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Bama/Biden 268
Romney/Portman 266
Bama/Biden 268
Romney/Portman 266
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on June 21, 2012, 05:39:56 PM
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Obama: 74
Romney: 67
Rachel Maddow: During the break, we were able to project two states for Governor Romney--Indiana and Georgia. Indiana voted narrowly for Obama, while Georgia was a narrow McCain state. Both were expected to go to Governor Romney tonight, and that seems to have been confirmed.
Now at 8:00, many more states have closed their polling. Let's begin tonight with Maine, where President Obama is projected to win at least 3 of the state's 4 electoral votes. Here's the deal; Maine gives 2 electoral votes to the winner of the state overall, and awards 1 electoral vote to the winner of each of its two congressional districts. Obama will win the state, as well as Maine's 1st district, but the more rural 2nd is too close to call right now.
Chris Matthews: Here's a tough blow for Romney. We project that Obama will win the governor's home state of Massachusetts. This wasn't a shocking result; it's a solidly Democratic state which hasn't voted Republican since Reagan's 49-state landslide in 1984. We're watching a very tight Senate race between embattled incumbent Republican and his challenger, Elizabeth Warren.
Connecticut goes, as expected, to Obama's column. It's, again, a strongly Democratic state, and that streak continues tonight.
New Jersey can also be projected for Obama. Though they do have a popular Republican governor, Chris Christie, who was speculated as a possible VP pick for Romney, it is strongly Democratic at a presidential level, and the Romney camp never made a serious effort in the state.
Once the ultimate bellwether state, Delaware is now strongly Democratic, and the home state of Vice President Biden can be projected, as expected, to President Obama. However, Romney will be watching returns from this state, as they do have implications in places like the Philly suburbs and Northern Virginia.
The 10 electoral votes from Maryland can be projected for Obama as well. It's long been a Democratic stronghold, and will not disappoint for them tonight. However, its neighbor to the south, Virginia, is still too close to call, and may be the deciding state tonight. Also on the Potomac is the District of Columbia, which will also go to Obama in the least surprising result of the night. He received over 90% of the vote in the city in 2008.
Ed Schultz: Romney's first 8:00 victory is in Tennessee. Once a swing state, it, like the rest of the South, has trended Republican and shows no signs of turning back.
The state of Oklahoma will also, as expected, be in the Romney column tonight. It's heavily Republican, and Obama lost here 2 to 1 in 2008. Romney should hope for a similar or better result there tonight.
Of the states where polls closed at eight, Pennsylvania and Missouri are considered too close to call. Alabama and Mississippi, which are strongly Republican but report results slowly, are too early to call. Let's go over to Chuck for some analysis.
Obama: 74
Romney: 67
Rachel Maddow: During the break, we were able to project two states for Governor Romney--Indiana and Georgia. Indiana voted narrowly for Obama, while Georgia was a narrow McCain state. Both were expected to go to Governor Romney tonight, and that seems to have been confirmed.
Now at 8:00, many more states have closed their polling. Let's begin tonight with Maine, where President Obama is projected to win at least 3 of the state's 4 electoral votes. Here's the deal; Maine gives 2 electoral votes to the winner of the state overall, and awards 1 electoral vote to the winner of each of its two congressional districts. Obama will win the state, as well as Maine's 1st district, but the more rural 2nd is too close to call right now.
Chris Matthews: Here's a tough blow for Romney. We project that Obama will win the governor's home state of Massachusetts. This wasn't a shocking result; it's a solidly Democratic state which hasn't voted Republican since Reagan's 49-state landslide in 1984. We're watching a very tight Senate race between embattled incumbent Republican and his challenger, Elizabeth Warren.
Connecticut goes, as expected, to Obama's column. It's, again, a strongly Democratic state, and that streak continues tonight.
New Jersey can also be projected for Obama. Though they do have a popular Republican governor, Chris Christie, who was speculated as a possible VP pick for Romney, it is strongly Democratic at a presidential level, and the Romney camp never made a serious effort in the state.
Once the ultimate bellwether state, Delaware is now strongly Democratic, and the home state of Vice President Biden can be projected, as expected, to President Obama. However, Romney will be watching returns from this state, as they do have implications in places like the Philly suburbs and Northern Virginia.
The 10 electoral votes from Maryland can be projected for Obama as well. It's long been a Democratic stronghold, and will not disappoint for them tonight. However, its neighbor to the south, Virginia, is still too close to call, and may be the deciding state tonight. Also on the Potomac is the District of Columbia, which will also go to Obama in the least surprising result of the night. He received over 90% of the vote in the city in 2008.
Ed Schultz: Romney's first 8:00 victory is in Tennessee. Once a swing state, it, like the rest of the South, has trended Republican and shows no signs of turning back.
The state of Oklahoma will also, as expected, be in the Romney column tonight. It's heavily Republican, and Obama lost here 2 to 1 in 2008. Romney should hope for a similar or better result there tonight.
Of the states where polls closed at eight, Pennsylvania and Missouri are considered too close to call. Alabama and Mississippi, which are strongly Republican but report results slowly, are too early to call. Let's go over to Chuck for some analysis.
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on June 22, 2012, 01:55:19 AM
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Chuck Todd: Let's take a look at Pennsylvania, a state which at this hour is too close to call, and was considered a battleground, albeit one with a Democratic lean. However, even if the Keystone State favors Obama, a good performance by Romney in the state probably indicates that he's doing well in the critical state of Ohio. Exit polls have already been released, and the two categories I'll be looking at are whites making under $50,000 a year and whites making over $50,000 a year. That first group is what we know as the white working class--traditionally a Democratic group, but one which has leaned Republican in recent years.
In 2008, McCain won white working-class voters by a 50-49 margin, statistically insignificant. Since Romney is doing better nationally, he has improved with them, but just barely--51% to 47%. The Obama camp has made Romney's record at Bain Capital a major theme, as well as the success of the auto bailouts. Although white working-class voters aren't keen on either candidate, Obama has seemingly avoided massive bleeding with that group. Whites making over $50K a year voted for Romney by a slightly bigger margin of 53% to Obama's 46%. Romney hoped for big improvements with somewhat more affluent suburban whites, and he has gotten it to some extent. However, whether that's enough to give him victory in other swing states remains to be seen.
Chuck Todd: Let's take a look at Pennsylvania, a state which at this hour is too close to call, and was considered a battleground, albeit one with a Democratic lean. However, even if the Keystone State favors Obama, a good performance by Romney in the state probably indicates that he's doing well in the critical state of Ohio. Exit polls have already been released, and the two categories I'll be looking at are whites making under $50,000 a year and whites making over $50,000 a year. That first group is what we know as the white working class--traditionally a Democratic group, but one which has leaned Republican in recent years.
In 2008, McCain won white working-class voters by a 50-49 margin, statistically insignificant. Since Romney is doing better nationally, he has improved with them, but just barely--51% to 47%. The Obama camp has made Romney's record at Bain Capital a major theme, as well as the success of the auto bailouts. Although white working-class voters aren't keen on either candidate, Obama has seemingly avoided massive bleeding with that group. Whites making over $50K a year voted for Romney by a slightly bigger margin of 53% to Obama's 46%. Romney hoped for big improvements with somewhat more affluent suburban whites, and he has gotten it to some extent. However, whether that's enough to give him victory in other swing states remains to be seen.
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on June 22, 2012, 10:49:26 AM
the two categories I'll be looking at are whites making over $50,000 a year and whites making over $50,000 a year.
Is he being witty or is that a typo?
But anyway, this is great.
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: GLPman on June 22, 2012, 12:20:13 PM
Good so far. Is this going to continue beyond election day?
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on June 22, 2012, 12:23:16 PM
Typo, and fixed.
And this will go until the 2020 election, hence the title.
And this will go until the 2020 election, hence the title.
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on June 22, 2012, 07:49:45 PM
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Rachel Maddow: Here to discuss current returns is Congresswoman and DNC chair, Mrs. Debbie Wassermann-Schultz.
DWS: Thanks Rachel.
Rachel Maddow: We're just beginning to see returns trickle in from key battlegrounds. But from what we know, with Obama and Romney in a dead heat in the electoral college, how are you feeling tonight.
DWS: Well, it's not time to celebrate yet. But I think that, given the good numbers in states like Pennsylvania, and the fact that Georgia took nearly an hour to call for Romney, the president should have the upper hand.
Rachel Maddow: As always, a key battleground here is Florida, your home state. Based on your ground knowledge, how is Obama faring there?
DWS: It's very tight in Florida, just as it is in Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and so on. I did cast my ballot for Obama, and I think he can win a narrow victory in the state. But even if Romney does win Florida, he still can't win without taking nearly all the other swing states on the board. So Romney winning here isn't the end.
Rachel Maddow: Here to discuss current returns is Congresswoman and DNC chair, Mrs. Debbie Wassermann-Schultz.
DWS: Thanks Rachel.
Rachel Maddow: We're just beginning to see returns trickle in from key battlegrounds. But from what we know, with Obama and Romney in a dead heat in the electoral college, how are you feeling tonight.
DWS: Well, it's not time to celebrate yet. But I think that, given the good numbers in states like Pennsylvania, and the fact that Georgia took nearly an hour to call for Romney, the president should have the upper hand.
Rachel Maddow: As always, a key battleground here is Florida, your home state. Based on your ground knowledge, how is Obama faring there?
DWS: It's very tight in Florida, just as it is in Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and so on. I did cast my ballot for Obama, and I think he can win a narrow victory in the state. But even if Romney does win Florida, he still can't win without taking nearly all the other swing states on the board. So Romney winning here isn't the end.
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on June 22, 2012, 11:38:13 PM
Are you gonna do Senate election coverage at the end?
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on June 23, 2012, 08:03:58 AM
Yes; that will be in the wrap-up post after Election Night.
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: Spamage on June 24, 2012, 11:30:23 AM
Great timeline!
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: Miles on June 24, 2012, 01:14:31 PM
Very good!
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on June 30, 2012, 11:40:58 AM
Chris Matthews: It is 9:00 at the hour. All states east of the Mississippi River are closed for voting, and we're slowly moving west. Starting on the East Coast, we can project that President Obama will take the state of New York. No surprise; it's solidly Democratic and hasn't been won by a Republican since Reagan's 1984 landslide. Rhode Island is the other remaining Eastern Seaboard state, and it too will go for the President tonight. Finally, Minnesota, the state with the longest streak of voting Democratic--not since 1972 has it gone Republican--will continue that streak this year. The Romney campaign seemingly ignored this state, where Republicans are faring very poorly at a state and local level.
But the big electoral gains as of right now are going to Romney. He's projected to win a ring of 6 states going right through the middle of the country. First up is Texas. Democrats hoped it could be competitive in the future due to growth of the Hispanic population; not so, as Romney wins by a 15-point margin based on exit polling. Kansas, another solidly red state, will also go to him. Of Nebraska's 5 electoral votes, 4 can be projected to Romney. Nebraska, like Maine, splits its electoral votes, and one of these is too close to call. Speaking of Maine, the Maine 2nd can be projected to be won by President Obama. South Dakota, home of vice presidential nominee John Thune, is also in the Romney column, as is its neighbor North Dakota. Finally, Wyoming, the most Republican state from 2008, can be projected for Governor Romney.
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Obama: 122
Romney: 139
But the big electoral gains as of right now are going to Romney. He's projected to win a ring of 6 states going right through the middle of the country. First up is Texas. Democrats hoped it could be competitive in the future due to growth of the Hispanic population; not so, as Romney wins by a 15-point margin based on exit polling. Kansas, another solidly red state, will also go to him. Of Nebraska's 5 electoral votes, 4 can be projected to Romney. Nebraska, like Maine, splits its electoral votes, and one of these is too close to call. Speaking of Maine, the Maine 2nd can be projected to be won by President Obama. South Dakota, home of vice presidential nominee John Thune, is also in the Romney column, as is its neighbor North Dakota. Finally, Wyoming, the most Republican state from 2008, can be projected for Governor Romney.
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Obama: 122
Romney: 139
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on June 30, 2012, 12:11:37 PM
It's relatively conventional so far. I intend to make 2016 a bit more interesting.
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on July 05, 2012, 03:09:55 PM
Chris Matthews: In 17 minutes, polls will be closing in several states in the West, including in the key battlegrounds of Iowa and Nevada. However, we can project results from two important states, both in the Northeast. Pennsylvania, often considered fool's gold for the Republicans, has gone to President Obama. McCain fell into the trap of focusing on this state instead of Ohio and Virginia, but Romney had pulled out of here almost entirely by mid-October. But in an upset tonight, Mitt Romney will carry the state of New Hampshire. This was his first victory in the primaries, and though in the Democratic stronghold region of New England, is notably fiscally conservative.
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Rachel Maddow: Romney is still ahead in the electoral count, but remember that 11:00, the heavily Democratic West Coast will begin to report. If you live in California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Alaska, or Hawaii, and have yet to vote, please do so.
Obama: 138
Romney: 157
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Rachel Maddow: Romney is still ahead in the electoral count, but remember that 11:00, the heavily Democratic West Coast will begin to report. If you live in California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Alaska, or Hawaii, and have yet to vote, please do so.
Obama: 138
Romney: 157
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: Vosem on July 05, 2012, 03:14:34 PM
Considering you're writing this, Stalky, I imagine Obama will win in the end -- but a Romney Administration, written from a realistic-but-left-wing point-of-view would be very interesting to read.
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on July 05, 2012, 03:37:52 PM
All I can confirm is that there will be a Republican administration in this timeline. Possibly more than one.
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on July 15, 2012, 12:34:09 PM
Eh, this is getting stale. I'll jump ahead a little.
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President Barack Obama (D-IL)/Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)-299 electoral votes, 50.2%
Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Senator John Thune (R-SD)-239 electoral votes, 47.4%
Others- 0 electoral votes, 2.4%
Presidential results by state (rounded to the nearest whole):
Alabama: Romney 61%, Obama 38%
Alaska: Romney 60%, Obama 36%
Arizona: Romney 53%, Obama 45%
Arkansas: Romney 56%, Obama 41%
California: Obama 57%, Romney 42%
Colorado: Obama 50%, Romney 48%
Connecticut: Obama 55%, Romney 44%
Delaware: Obama 58%, Romney 41%
District of Columbia: Obama 90%, Romney 8%
Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 49%
Georgia: Romney 54%, Obama 45%
Hawaii: Obama 68%, Romney 31%
Idaho: Romney 67%, Obama 31%
Illinois: Obama 58%, Romney 41%
Indiana: Romney 53%, Obama 45%
Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 48%
Kansas: Romney 60%, Obama 39%
Kentucky: Romney 57%, Obama 41%
Louisiana: Romney 58%, Obama 40%
Maine: Obama 53%, Romney 44%
Maryland: Obama 60%, Romney 38%
Massachusetts: Obama 57%, Romney 41%
Michigan: Obama 53%, Romney 46%
Minnesota: Obama 54%, Romney 44%
Mississippi: Romney 57%, Obama 42%
Missouri: Romney 52%, Obama 47%
Montana: Romney 55%, Obama 44%
Nebraska: Romney 62%, Obama 37%
Nevada: Obama 51%, Romney 47%
New Hampshire: Romney 49%, Obama 47%
New Jersey: Obama 55%, Romney 44%
New Mexico: Obama 51%, Romney 43%, Johnson 5%
New York: Obama 60%, Romney 38%
North Carolina: Romney 51%, Obama 48%
North Dakota: Romney 61%, Obama 37%
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 48%
Oklahoma: Romney 64%, Obama 36%
Oregon: Obama 54%, Romney 44%
Pennsylvania: Obama 52%, Romney 46%
Rhode Island: Obama 60%, Romney 37%
South Carolina: Romney 55%, Obama 44%
South Dakota: Romney 60%, Obama 37%
Tennessee: Romney 56%, Obama 41%
Texas: Romney 56%, Obama 43%
Utah: Romney 71%, Obama 26%
Vermont: Obama 62%, Romney 35%
Virginia: Obama 50%, Romney 49%
Washington: Obama 55%, Romney 43%
West Virginia: Romney 55%, Obama 42%
Wisconsin: Obama 52%, Romney 47%
Wyoming: Romney 68%, Obama 30%
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President Barack Obama (D-IL)/Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)-299 electoral votes, 50.2%
Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Senator John Thune (R-SD)-239 electoral votes, 47.4%
Others- 0 electoral votes, 2.4%
Presidential results by state (rounded to the nearest whole):
Alabama: Romney 61%, Obama 38%
Alaska: Romney 60%, Obama 36%
Arizona: Romney 53%, Obama 45%
Arkansas: Romney 56%, Obama 41%
California: Obama 57%, Romney 42%
Colorado: Obama 50%, Romney 48%
Connecticut: Obama 55%, Romney 44%
Delaware: Obama 58%, Romney 41%
District of Columbia: Obama 90%, Romney 8%
Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 49%
Georgia: Romney 54%, Obama 45%
Hawaii: Obama 68%, Romney 31%
Idaho: Romney 67%, Obama 31%
Illinois: Obama 58%, Romney 41%
Indiana: Romney 53%, Obama 45%
Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 48%
Kansas: Romney 60%, Obama 39%
Kentucky: Romney 57%, Obama 41%
Louisiana: Romney 58%, Obama 40%
Maine: Obama 53%, Romney 44%
Maryland: Obama 60%, Romney 38%
Massachusetts: Obama 57%, Romney 41%
Michigan: Obama 53%, Romney 46%
Minnesota: Obama 54%, Romney 44%
Mississippi: Romney 57%, Obama 42%
Missouri: Romney 52%, Obama 47%
Montana: Romney 55%, Obama 44%
Nebraska: Romney 62%, Obama 37%
Nevada: Obama 51%, Romney 47%
New Hampshire: Romney 49%, Obama 47%
New Jersey: Obama 55%, Romney 44%
New Mexico: Obama 51%, Romney 43%, Johnson 5%
New York: Obama 60%, Romney 38%
North Carolina: Romney 51%, Obama 48%
North Dakota: Romney 61%, Obama 37%
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 48%
Oklahoma: Romney 64%, Obama 36%
Oregon: Obama 54%, Romney 44%
Pennsylvania: Obama 52%, Romney 46%
Rhode Island: Obama 60%, Romney 37%
South Carolina: Romney 55%, Obama 44%
South Dakota: Romney 60%, Obama 37%
Tennessee: Romney 56%, Obama 41%
Texas: Romney 56%, Obama 43%
Utah: Romney 71%, Obama 26%
Vermont: Obama 62%, Romney 35%
Virginia: Obama 50%, Romney 49%
Washington: Obama 55%, Romney 43%
West Virginia: Romney 55%, Obama 42%
Wisconsin: Obama 52%, Romney 47%
Wyoming: Romney 68%, Obama 30%
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on July 18, 2012, 09:21:52 PM
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Democrats: 50 (-1)
Republicans: 48 (+1)
Independents: 2 (0)
Pickups:
Connecticut: Chris Murphy (D) defeats Linda McMahon (R)
Indiana: Joe Donnelly (D) defeats Richard Mourdock (R)
Maine: Angus King (I) defeats Matt Dunlap (D) and Charlie Summers (R)
Massachusetts: Elizabeth Warren (D) defeats Scott Brown (R)
Montana: Denny Rehberg (R) defeats Jon Tester (D)
Nebraska: Deb Fischer (R) defeats Bob Kerrey (D)
North Dakota: Rick Berg (R) defeats Heidi Heitkamp (D)
Wisconsin: Tommy Thompson (R) defeats Tammy Baldwin (D)
House Results:
Republicans: 227 (-14)
Democrats: 208 (+17)
Gubernatorial:
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)
Pickups:
North Carolina: Pat McCrory (R) beats Walter Dalton (D)
Washington: Rob McKenna (R) beats Jay Inslee (D)
Democrats: 50 (-1)
Republicans: 48 (+1)
Independents: 2 (0)
Pickups:
Connecticut: Chris Murphy (D) defeats Linda McMahon (R)
Indiana: Joe Donnelly (D) defeats Richard Mourdock (R)
Maine: Angus King (I) defeats Matt Dunlap (D) and Charlie Summers (R)
Massachusetts: Elizabeth Warren (D) defeats Scott Brown (R)
Montana: Denny Rehberg (R) defeats Jon Tester (D)
Nebraska: Deb Fischer (R) defeats Bob Kerrey (D)
North Dakota: Rick Berg (R) defeats Heidi Heitkamp (D)
Wisconsin: Tommy Thompson (R) defeats Tammy Baldwin (D)
House Results:
Republicans: 227 (-14)
Democrats: 208 (+17)
Gubernatorial:
(
Pickups:
North Carolina: Pat McCrory (R) beats Walter Dalton (D)
Washington: Rob McKenna (R) beats Jay Inslee (D)
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on July 21, 2012, 08:46:16 AM
President Obama's Second Cabinet:
Secretary of State: John Kerry
Secretary of the Treasury: Alan Krueger
Secretary of Defense: Leon Panetta
Attorney General: Jeff Bingaman
Secretary of the Interior: Linda Lingle
Secretary of Agriculture: Tom Vilsack
Secertary of Commerce: Rebecca Blank
Secretary of Labor: Hilda Solis
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Kathleen Sebelius
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Shaun Donovan
Secretary of Transportation: Joseph Boardman
Secretary of Energy: Steven Chu
Secretary of Education: Arne Duncan
Secretary of Veterans' Affairs: Max Cleland
Secretary of Homeland Security: Janet Napolitano
The most high-profile appointment was of course of Senator and former presidential candidate John Kerry of Massachusetts. This left a vacant Senate seat; Governor Deval Patrick appointed former Congressman John Olver as a placeholder, intending to run for the seat himself in 2014.
()
Despite Obama's presidential victory, congressional elections were mostly a wash. However, the lame duck session of the 112th Congress agreed to reduce the filibuster requirement to 55 seats; some Republicans agreed to this because Democrats would only have 52 votes (counting Bernie Sanders and Angus King), and because they hoped to take the Senate in the future and ally with conservative Democrats on some issues.
President Obama's first order of business would be the passage of the American Jobs Act. First proposed in late 2011 at a joint session of Congress, this smaller stimulus package included tax cuts and infrastructure spending. Criticized by Republicans as another example of over-spending, the legislation nonetheless passed in March by the minimum needed; 55-45, with John Hoeven, Susan Collins, and Lisa Murkowski joining all 50 Democrats and the two Independent Democrats. After concessions which included some spending and tax cut riders, the bill also narrowly passed in the House with support from all Democrats and a few Republicans.
Secretary of State: John Kerry
Secretary of the Treasury: Alan Krueger
Secretary of Defense: Leon Panetta
Attorney General: Jeff Bingaman
Secretary of the Interior: Linda Lingle
Secretary of Agriculture: Tom Vilsack
Secertary of Commerce: Rebecca Blank
Secretary of Labor: Hilda Solis
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Kathleen Sebelius
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Shaun Donovan
Secretary of Transportation: Joseph Boardman
Secretary of Energy: Steven Chu
Secretary of Education: Arne Duncan
Secretary of Veterans' Affairs: Max Cleland
Secretary of Homeland Security: Janet Napolitano
The most high-profile appointment was of course of Senator and former presidential candidate John Kerry of Massachusetts. This left a vacant Senate seat; Governor Deval Patrick appointed former Congressman John Olver as a placeholder, intending to run for the seat himself in 2014.
()
Despite Obama's presidential victory, congressional elections were mostly a wash. However, the lame duck session of the 112th Congress agreed to reduce the filibuster requirement to 55 seats; some Republicans agreed to this because Democrats would only have 52 votes (counting Bernie Sanders and Angus King), and because they hoped to take the Senate in the future and ally with conservative Democrats on some issues.
President Obama's first order of business would be the passage of the American Jobs Act. First proposed in late 2011 at a joint session of Congress, this smaller stimulus package included tax cuts and infrastructure spending. Criticized by Republicans as another example of over-spending, the legislation nonetheless passed in March by the minimum needed; 55-45, with John Hoeven, Susan Collins, and Lisa Murkowski joining all 50 Democrats and the two Independent Democrats. After concessions which included some spending and tax cut riders, the bill also narrowly passed in the House with support from all Democrats and a few Republicans.
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on July 30, 2012, 02:38:33 PM
On April 3rd, 2013, Obama was faced with the second great issue of his second term. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a liberal Clinton appointee, retired from the court.. With Obama having won last November, she knew for certain that her successor would be a liberal, hopefully a younger one. As expected by most pundits, his choice would be in Judge Diane Wood of the Seventh Circuit of the Court of Appeals; also a Clinton appointee.
()
With the filibuster weakened, her confirmation went smoother than those of Sotomayor and Kagan. She would be confirmed by a 59-41 vote.
2013 had been going smoothly for Obama thus far; a second stimulus and a new Supreme Court appointee before the summer, with unemployment levels steadily declining and Q1 GDP growth at a decent but not great 2.4%. However, the summer would hold two new problems totally out of any human's control. Firstly, despite the summer of 2013 being relatively average, the scorching heat of the last year would come back in a new way, as food prices began rising in May, especially corn, soy, and nearly all meats and other animal products. (due to most farm animals being fed a corn-heavy diet). The administration was divided on how to deal with the new crisis; price controls were proposed but quickly discredited. In the end, President Obama reluctantly decided to wait for the issue to pass, instead tackling the root problem.
()
Gallup Presidential Approval Ratings: September 1st, 2013
Approve: 50%
Disapprove: 44%
August Jobs Report: Unemployment down to 7.6%
At the beginning of September, as produce, dairy, and meat prices were beginning to fall again, the President visited Nashville, Tennessee, to meet with former Vice President Al Gore and discuss the proposed RIEA (Renewable and Innovative Energy Act).
"For decades, each president has made a commitment to end our dependence on foreign oil, to support renewable energy research while refining the use of fossil fuels through investments in scientific research. But until now, we have failed to deal with what may be the most critical issue of the 21st century; the need to pursue sustainable, affordable, and green energy sources. There is no one solution for this problem. From wind and solar to nuclear and clean coal, we can utilize many energy sources and not only provide millions of new and innovative jobs, but to lead the world in the reduction of carbon emissions."
The RIEA contained a wide range of ideas; the media nicknamed it "the green stimulus", something used in both positive and negative contexts. Millions would be invested in research on harnessing solar and wind energy more effectively, as well as tax credits encouraging the construction of newer, more efficient coal plants. Two more controversial measures would also be included; the elimination of oil industry subsidies and the revival of the New Deal-era CCC. Though met with more bipartisan support than usual, there were opponents of various stripes; senators from states where the oil industry was powerful and the stricter fiscal conservatives. Senator Rand Paul called it "yet another unconstitutional, big-spending government power grab by this administration".
Due to the bill continuing subsidies for ethanol, which disappointed progressives (who were still backing the legislation) and conservatives (who weren't) alike, four "farm belt" Republicans also supported it; John Thune, Mike Johaans, Tommy Thompson, and Chuck Grassley. The RIEA eventually passed 56-44, with six Republicans (Thune, Johaans, Thompson, Grassley, Corker, and Collins) voting for it and two Democrats dissenting (Manchin and Begich). Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack called it "what we'll truly go down in history for". Obama's approval ratings increased to 55%, and the Democratic Party seemed strong for the 2014 midterm elections. But there was a year left for the tables to turn.
VIRGINIA GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION, 2013:
Tom Perriello (D)-54%
Ken Cuccinelli (R)-45%
NEW JERSEY GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION, 2013:
Chris Christie (R)-55%
Richard Codey (D)-45%
()
With the filibuster weakened, her confirmation went smoother than those of Sotomayor and Kagan. She would be confirmed by a 59-41 vote.
2013 had been going smoothly for Obama thus far; a second stimulus and a new Supreme Court appointee before the summer, with unemployment levels steadily declining and Q1 GDP growth at a decent but not great 2.4%. However, the summer would hold two new problems totally out of any human's control. Firstly, despite the summer of 2013 being relatively average, the scorching heat of the last year would come back in a new way, as food prices began rising in May, especially corn, soy, and nearly all meats and other animal products. (due to most farm animals being fed a corn-heavy diet). The administration was divided on how to deal with the new crisis; price controls were proposed but quickly discredited. In the end, President Obama reluctantly decided to wait for the issue to pass, instead tackling the root problem.
()
Gallup Presidential Approval Ratings: September 1st, 2013
Approve: 50%
Disapprove: 44%
August Jobs Report: Unemployment down to 7.6%
At the beginning of September, as produce, dairy, and meat prices were beginning to fall again, the President visited Nashville, Tennessee, to meet with former Vice President Al Gore and discuss the proposed RIEA (Renewable and Innovative Energy Act).
"For decades, each president has made a commitment to end our dependence on foreign oil, to support renewable energy research while refining the use of fossil fuels through investments in scientific research. But until now, we have failed to deal with what may be the most critical issue of the 21st century; the need to pursue sustainable, affordable, and green energy sources. There is no one solution for this problem. From wind and solar to nuclear and clean coal, we can utilize many energy sources and not only provide millions of new and innovative jobs, but to lead the world in the reduction of carbon emissions."
The RIEA contained a wide range of ideas; the media nicknamed it "the green stimulus", something used in both positive and negative contexts. Millions would be invested in research on harnessing solar and wind energy more effectively, as well as tax credits encouraging the construction of newer, more efficient coal plants. Two more controversial measures would also be included; the elimination of oil industry subsidies and the revival of the New Deal-era CCC. Though met with more bipartisan support than usual, there were opponents of various stripes; senators from states where the oil industry was powerful and the stricter fiscal conservatives. Senator Rand Paul called it "yet another unconstitutional, big-spending government power grab by this administration".
Due to the bill continuing subsidies for ethanol, which disappointed progressives (who were still backing the legislation) and conservatives (who weren't) alike, four "farm belt" Republicans also supported it; John Thune, Mike Johaans, Tommy Thompson, and Chuck Grassley. The RIEA eventually passed 56-44, with six Republicans (Thune, Johaans, Thompson, Grassley, Corker, and Collins) voting for it and two Democrats dissenting (Manchin and Begich). Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack called it "what we'll truly go down in history for". Obama's approval ratings increased to 55%, and the Democratic Party seemed strong for the 2014 midterm elections. But there was a year left for the tables to turn.
VIRGINIA GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION, 2013:
Tom Perriello (D)-54%
Ken Cuccinelli (R)-45%
NEW JERSEY GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION, 2013:
Chris Christie (R)-55%
Richard Codey (D)-45%
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on July 30, 2012, 09:56:32 PM
Thoughts?
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: mondale84 on July 30, 2012, 10:03:30 PM
Great job Snow, keep it comin!!!!!
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: Jerseyrules on August 07, 2012, 02:15:48 PM
Great job Snow, keep it comin!!!!!
Rand Paul 2016!
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: MRX on August 23, 2012, 01:51:09 PM
Any new updates?
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on August 23, 2012, 10:03:56 PM
Woah, totally forgot about this. I hope to have an update cooked up by Sunday.
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: Frodo on August 23, 2012, 10:37:50 PM
On April 3rd, 2013, Obama was faced with the second great issue of his second term. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a liberal Clinton appointee, retired from the court.. With Obama having won last November, she knew for certain that her successor would be a liberal, hopefully a younger one. As expected by most pundits, his choice would be in Judge Diane Wood of the Seventh Circuit of the Court of Appeals; also a Clinton appointee.
()
With the filibuster weakened, her confirmation went smoother than those of Sotomayor and Kagan. She would be confirmed by a 59-41 vote.
()
With the filibuster weakened, her confirmation went smoother than those of Sotomayor and Kagan. She would be confirmed by a 59-41 vote.
Diane Wood? Aren't there any African-American woman judges that a re-elected President Obama can pick from instead to replace Ruth Bader Ginsberg?
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: MRX on August 28, 2012, 12:42:18 PM
Report?
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on August 31, 2012, 04:27:42 PM
2014 Midterm Elections:
(
)
Democrats: 48 (-2)
Independent Democrats: 2 (0)
Republicans: 50 (+2)
With Vice President Biden as the tie-breaking vote, the Democratic Party retained control of the Senate.
Pickups:
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R) beats Mark Begich (D)
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (R) beats Mary Landrieu (D)
Maine: Hannah Pingree (D) beats Bruce Poliquin (R)
Montana: Steve Daines (R) beats Denise Juneau (D)
House Results:
Republicans: 232 (+5)
Democrats: 203 (-5)
John Boehner (R-OH) remained Speaker, while Xavier Becerra (D-CA) would remain House Minority Leader.
Gubernatorial Elections:
Democrats: 23 (+5)
Republicans: 27 (-4)
(
)
Pickups:
Arizona: Terry Goddard (D) beats Ken Bennett (R)
Connecticut: Tom Foley (R) beats Dan Malloy (D)
Florida: Alex Sink (D) beats Rick Scott (R)
Maine: Matthew Dunlap (D) beats Paul LePage (R)
Massachusetts: Scott Brown (R) beats Martha Coakley (D)
Michigan: Gretchen Whitmer (D) beats Rick Snyder (R)
Pennsylvania: Joe Sestak (D) beats Tom Corbett (R)
Rhode Island: Elizabeth Roberts (D) beats John Robitaille (R)
South Carolina: Vincent Sheheen (D) beats Nikki Haley (R)
(
Democrats: 48 (-2)
Independent Democrats: 2 (0)
Republicans: 50 (+2)
With Vice President Biden as the tie-breaking vote, the Democratic Party retained control of the Senate.
Pickups:
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R) beats Mark Begich (D)
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (R) beats Mary Landrieu (D)
Maine: Hannah Pingree (D) beats Bruce Poliquin (R)
Montana: Steve Daines (R) beats Denise Juneau (D)
House Results:
Republicans: 232 (+5)
Democrats: 203 (-5)
John Boehner (R-OH) remained Speaker, while Xavier Becerra (D-CA) would remain House Minority Leader.
Gubernatorial Elections:
Democrats: 23 (+5)
Republicans: 27 (-4)
(
Pickups:
Arizona: Terry Goddard (D) beats Ken Bennett (R)
Connecticut: Tom Foley (R) beats Dan Malloy (D)
Florida: Alex Sink (D) beats Rick Scott (R)
Maine: Matthew Dunlap (D) beats Paul LePage (R)
Massachusetts: Scott Brown (R) beats Martha Coakley (D)
Michigan: Gretchen Whitmer (D) beats Rick Snyder (R)
Pennsylvania: Joe Sestak (D) beats Tom Corbett (R)
Rhode Island: Elizabeth Roberts (D) beats John Robitaille (R)
South Carolina: Vincent Sheheen (D) beats Nikki Haley (R)
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: MRX on August 31, 2012, 08:46:26 PM
Democrats aren't gaining in 2014?
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on August 31, 2012, 09:09:14 PM
The economy is slowly improving. However, Democrats were overstretched in the Senate, and the GOP had some unpopular governors elected in 2010. The House results are negligible.
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: MRX on September 01, 2012, 09:42:03 AM
The economy is slowly improving. However, Democrats were overstretched in the Senate, and the GOP had some unpopular governors elected in 2010. The House results are negligible.
Perhaps some of these new governors can put their support behind the National Popular Vote Compact, and get it passed before the 2016 election. That should be interesting.
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on September 23, 2012, 08:22:48 PM
The 2014 elections were overall a wash; Republicans took seats from the overstretched Democrats in the Senate, while many unpopular Republican governors were knocked out. Obama's first two years of his second term had overall been successful; an energy bill had been passed, a Supreme Court justice appointed, and by the end of 2014, the United States finally exited Afghanistan, closing the longest war in American history. But for the final two years, he would not be the center of American politics. Instead, the 2016 race would begin, and neither party had a clear frontrunner.
()
()
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on September 24, 2012, 10:05:02 AM
As a bonus:
Texas Gubernatorial Election, 2014
()
Rick Perry (R): 51.7%
Julian Castro (D): 45.9%
Texas Gubernatorial Election, 2014
()
Rick Perry (R): 51.7%
Julian Castro (D): 45.9%
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: MRX on September 24, 2012, 02:41:18 PM
Really. There's a good chance that Perry'll be gone come 2014.
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on September 24, 2012, 04:11:54 PM
Castro came close and Perry was fairly weak, but in the end, Texas is still Texas, and the incumbent president is a Democrat. Perry might not be around after 2018, though...
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: MRX on October 23, 2012, 07:17:58 PM
Coming back to this?
Title: Re: The Next Decade
Post by: MRX on November 20, 2012, 06:23:44 PM
Snowstalker, can you please tell us more about the RIEA?