Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2012 Elections => Topic started by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on June 15, 2012, 02:40:26 PM



Title: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on June 15, 2012, 02:40:26 PM
No, I predict 2004-esque results, whether it's Obama win or Romney win. It won't be higher than 290 electoral votes.


Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on June 15, 2012, 02:45:13 PM
Obama will have roughly 370-380 electoral votes. I will accept my accolades in November.


Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: Maxwell on June 15, 2012, 02:46:33 PM
itll be shocking if that happens.


Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: emailking on June 15, 2012, 02:51:19 PM
Sure, anything's possible.


Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: opebo on June 15, 2012, 02:59:07 PM
I think it is possible:

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But this is much more likely:

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Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: Donerail on June 15, 2012, 03:26:06 PM
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and

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Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on June 15, 2012, 03:33:16 PM
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Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on June 15, 2012, 04:26:22 PM
Even after what happened in 2010 (Republicans taking over the legislature, two House seats and retaining comfortably Senate seat, that was long considered to be a pickup for the Democrats), Obama is still leading in NH by double digits. It won't flip.


Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: WhyteRain on June 15, 2012, 04:41:01 PM

Very nice job!


Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on June 15, 2012, 05:12:12 PM

Yeah, I think this is the most likely Obama map and it's 303 EVs. CO, OH, and VA will probably all be within 3 points though.


Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: WhyteRain on June 15, 2012, 05:40:56 PM

Yeah, I think this is the most likely Obama map and it's 303 EVs. CO, OH, and VA will probably all be within 3 points though.

Wait ... you think Obama will win with 303 EV  ... this year?  Win every state he won in 2008 except North Carolina?

If so, then you have more confidence than I do in the ability of the American academia and media to dumb down Americans to mindless drones.  (I know they're trying and that they will eventually succeed, I just disagree that they've succeeded already.)

[Modify:]  I'll bet Obama gets closer to 150 than 300 EVs.


Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on June 15, 2012, 05:47:04 PM

Yeah, I think this is the most likely Obama map and it's 303 EVs. CO, OH, and VA will probably all be within 3 points though.

Wait ... you think Obama will win with 303 EV  ... this year?  Win every state he won in 2008 except North Carolina?

I think you're missing Indiana, my friend.


Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on June 15, 2012, 06:12:11 PM

Yeah, I think this is the most likely Obama map and it's 303 EVs. CO, OH, and VA will probably all be within 3 points though.

Wait ... you think Obama will win with 303 EV  ... this year?  Win every state he won in 2008 except North Carolina?

I think you're missing Indiana, my friend.

And Florida.


Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: Del Tachi on June 15, 2012, 06:58:34 PM
If anyone is getting over 300 EV, its Mitt Romney


Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: WhyteRain on June 15, 2012, 07:01:40 PM

Yeah, I think this is the most likely Obama map and it's 303 EVs. CO, OH, and VA will probably all be within 3 points though.

Wait ... you think Obama will win with 303 EV  ... this year?  Win every state he won in 2008 except North Carolina?

I think you're missing Indiana, my friend.

And Florida.

You're both right.  Mea culpa!


Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: ShamDam on June 15, 2012, 07:04:30 PM
I think it's more likely than not. I can easily see the election tipping that far in Obama or Romney's favor, and there are very reasonable looking maps on either side of that coin. I disagree with the notion that this election is inevitably going to be close; it could just as easily pull out in either direction. Most presidential elections aren't close. 2000 and 2004 were exceptions compared to most of the elections in the past 100 years.


Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: Penelope on June 15, 2012, 08:02:08 PM
Yes. It's pretty likely, this is a very economics heavy election.

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If the economy is reasonably good, Obama outspent Romney, and Romney didn't do so hot in the debates, Obama will probably take just about every swing state.

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Obama: 368

However, if the economy is pretty bad or stagnant, Romney outspent Obama, and Romney had some good moments during the debates, Romney probably wins every swing state.

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Romney: 322


Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: President von Cat on June 15, 2012, 09:54:54 PM
I don't think Romney is likely to win every swing state, unless the economy really falls off a cliff due to Europe. And the window for that is closing fast, given the ripple effect of a fall Europe collapse would take a quarter or so to really start impacting us here. I guess it would wreak havoc on the stock exchange though.

Anyhow, I see scenarios for Obama to just, and I mean just, break 300 EVs. But I see Romney capped in the 280s or low 290s. I think either campaign will have a tough time with it though.


Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: Donerail on June 15, 2012, 11:39:49 PM
I can see Obama easily getting around 350 through just winning a few swing states (NC & FL stand out). As for Romney, can't see above around 290.


Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: muon2 on June 15, 2012, 11:57:39 PM
Yes. It's pretty likely, this is a very economics heavy election.

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If grey is a potential swing state, then you might note that 538 rates MN, NJ, CT as having a greater probability of going R than GA and SC have of going D.


Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: Penelope on June 16, 2012, 02:39:57 AM
Yes. It's pretty likely, this is a very economics heavy election.

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If grey is a potential swing state, then you might note that 538 rates MN, NJ, CT as having a greater probability of going R than GA and SC have of going D.

Hmm, interesting. That was a really rough map made right off my gut feeling in like ten seconds, so a couple of the more distant swing states (WA, NM, GA, SC, etc) could be switched around a bit probably.

But CT? Dang, a Romney landslide map could look really ugly, not even bringing political opinions into it. =(


Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: WhyteRain on June 16, 2012, 07:44:22 AM
With the probable exception of Washington, Obama won't win any states won by William Jennings Bryan in 1896:

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The modern Democrat Party is the Gilded Age GOP (the party of "negro" rights and big business favoritism).  It's descended from the Federalist and Whig Parties -- look at the election maps of 1796 and 1812 for example.

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The "Party of Jackson"?  That's a laugh.  Here's the 1828 election:

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Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: muon2 on June 16, 2012, 07:55:04 AM
Yes. It's pretty likely, this is a very economics heavy election.

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If grey is a potential swing state, then you might note that 538 rates MN, NJ, CT as having a greater probability of going R than GA and SC have of going D.

Hmm, interesting. That was a really rough map made right off my gut feeling in like ten seconds, so a couple of the more distant swing states (WA, NM, GA, SC, etc) could be switched around a bit probably.

But CT? Dang, a Romney landslide map could look really ugly, not even bringing political opinions into it. =(

If I use the current numbers from 538 and cut off at less than 90% sure the map looks like this:

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If I cut off at less than 95% sure the map looks like this:

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Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: anvi on June 16, 2012, 08:14:05 AM
My rough guess is that Obama won't get less than 217, but I'm starting to think that, if he tops 270, somewhere around 285 will be his ceiling.


Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: Donerail on June 16, 2012, 08:43:12 AM
With the probable exception of Washington, Obama won't win any states won by William Jennings Bryan in 1896:

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More likely than not he wins Washington, that one CA vote, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia, and plausibly Florida and North Carolina as well. In a wave for him he'd also get Montana, Missouri, and NE-02.


Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: muon2 on June 17, 2012, 09:57:13 AM
If I extend the theme of my maps I can create a table showing the base EV at each level of likelihood. For example the 95% likely map from 538 gives Obama 149 and Romney 152. Here's how that changes with likelihood:

ObamaRomney
95%  149152
90%  207155
85%  210166
80%  237181
75%  247191
70%  251206
65%  257206
60%  276235
55%  285235
50%  303235

Clearly Obama has a lot more EV leaning his way than Romney does. Even so, Obama only breaks 300 EV when all states are allocated (ie 50%). Romney needs to get the states that are less than 80% likely for Obama to break 300.


Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: pbrower2a on June 17, 2012, 10:40:19 AM
With the probable exception of Washington, Obama won't win any states won by William Jennings Bryan in 1896:

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More likely than not he wins Washington, that one CA vote, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia, and plausibly Florida and North Carolina as well. In a wave for him he'd also get Montana, Missouri, and NE-02.

In a wave he would also hold Indiana, pick up Arizona and Georgia, and be on the margin of   picking off NE-01, South Carolina, Texas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and maybe West Virginia. 


Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: WhyteRain on June 17, 2012, 11:27:01 AM
With the probable exception of Washington, Obama won't win any states won by William Jennings Bryan in 1896:

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Well, this likely will be a "wave election", I'll give you that.

More likely than not he wins Washington, that one CA vote, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia, and plausibly Florida and North Carolina as well. In a wave for him he'd also get Montana, Missouri, and NE-02.

In a wave he would also hold Indiana, pick up Arizona and Georgia, and be on the margin of   picking off NE-01, South Carolina, Texas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and maybe West Virginia. 


Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: Donerail on June 17, 2012, 06:04:14 PM
With the probable exception of Washington, Obama won't win any states won by William Jennings Bryan in 1896:

()

More likely than not he wins Washington, that one CA vote, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia, and plausibly Florida and North Carolina as well. In a wave for him he'd also get Montana, Missouri, and NE-02.

In a wave he would also hold Indiana, pick up Arizona and Georgia, and be on the margin of   picking off NE-01, South Carolina, Texas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and maybe West Virginia. 

This was specifically about the WJB states; I can see IN or AZ, but none of the others.


Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: nkpatel1279 on June 17, 2012, 08:24:17 PM
Safe Obama-D (DC-3,HI-4,VT-3,RI-4,NY-29,MA-11,MD-10,IL-20,DE-3,CA-55,and CT-7)=149ev
Likely Obama-D (ME-4,WA-12,NJ-14,OR-7,MN-10,and NM-5)=201ev
Lean Obama-D (MI-16,PA-20,WI-10,and NV-6)=253ev
Tossup Obama-D (NH-4,IA-6,and CO-9)=272ev
No Clear Favorite-D (VA-13,OH-18,and FL-29)=332ev
Safe Romney-R (UT-6,WY-3,ID-4,OK-7,AL-9,AK-3,NE-5,KS-6,AR-6,LA-8,KY-8,TN-11,ND-3,SD-3,MS-6,WV-5,and TX-38)=131ev
Likely Romney-R (MT-3,SC-9,IN-11,GA-16,and AZ-11)=181ev
Lean Romney-R (NC-15,MO-10,and FL-29)=235ev
Tossup Romney-R (OH-18 and VA-13)=266ev
No Clear Favorite-R
IA-6,CO-9,and WI-10=291ev
Obama-D will win PA-20,MI-16,NV-6,and NH-4.
Another scenario
Obama-D wins PA-20,WI-10,CO-9,and IA-6=246ev
Romney-R wins MI-16,NV-6,and NH-4=292ev
Obama-D wins PA-20,CO-9,NV-6,and NH-4=240ev
Romney-R wins MI-16,WI-10,and IA-6=298ev
Obama-D will win PA-20,MI-16,WI-10,and NV-6=253ev
Obama-D is more likely to surpass 300ev by winning all of the Kerry States plus NM-5,NV-6,CO-9,IA-6,OH-18,and VA-13.=303ev
Best scenario of Romney-R is winning all of the McCain States(180ev) plus the Dole States-IN-11,NC-15,VA-13,and CO-9=228ev plus Bush43 States-FL-29,OH-18,and NV-6=281ev. Romney will lose PA-20,MI-16,and WI-10. Romney-R is also going to lose NH-4 and IA-6.



Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: nkpatel1279 on June 17, 2012, 09:18:53 PM
Obama-D.
There is a greater chance Obama-D will carry FL-29,OH-18,and VA-13=the must win Romney-R states than Romney-R will carry PA-20,MI-16,and WI-10=the must win Obama-D states.
Obama-D will carry some or all of the swing states like CO-9,IA-6,NV-6,and NH-4.
Battleground states like MN-10,NM-5,and OR-7 are strongly in the Obama-D collumn.
Traditional Republican States like MO-10 and NC-15 are likely to be in the Tossup column.
Republican leaning states like AZ-11,IN-11,and MT-3 are also battleground states.


Title: Re: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
Post by: pikachu on June 17, 2012, 10:33:39 PM
I'd say its not unlikely that an Obama victory would have over 300 electoral votes. If he can win OH, VA, IA, CO, NV, and NH, that puts him at 303, and all of those states either have a slight Democratic lean or are toss ups. For Romney, it seems less likely since he'd have to win a historically Democratic state like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.