Talk Elections

New Poll: New Hampshire President by Rasmussen on 2012-6-21 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3302012621016)

Summary: D: 48%, R: 43%, I: 2%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2012_new_hampshire_president)

A rassy poll showing Obama ahead in NH?  Romney surely needs NH to have any  hope of winning this election.

Not bad.

This is in line with Obama +8 in Michigan

LOL, no.

Anyhow, I pretty much believe these numbers.

STARTING the campaign with Obama's lead in NH cut in 1/2?  I'll take it!  This will change over the next four months.  And ditto to our Canadian buddy, Romney does NOT need NH to win, but it would be handy

Not bad for the state Romney treats as his backyard.

Hmm, I expected this to be a favorable state for Romney. There's still plenty of time, at least.

Considering Obama was trailing in NH last year, I'll certainly take this as well!

Romney has lost ground here, I recall a few polls that showed him up by a few points. Looks like the only home state Romney will be winning is Utah.

I'm surprised. I really thought this would be a good state for Romney, but it's not.

It is safe to say that Obama-D has the Northeasten States secured in his collumn.
He is going to win NH-4,PA-20,and ME-2CD.
The NewEngland and Mid Atlantic States= (ME-4,NH-4,VT-3,MA-11,RI-4,CT-7,NY-29,PA-20,NJ-14,DE-3,MD-10 and DC-3)=112ev.
Obama-D also has the Pacific West coast states secured in his collumn as well.
HI-4,CA-55,WA-12,and OR-7= 190ev.
The Midwestern States Obama-D is strongly favored to win is IL-20(home state) and MN-10= 220ev. plus Obama-D will win the battleground Southwestern states in NM-5,NV-6,and CO-9.= 240ev.  What is left is MI-16,WI-10,and IA-6 or OH-18 and VA-13 or FL-29 and NE-2CD.

New Hampshire is a wild card state in this election; I suspect that it could swing hard to Romney once the campaign is in full swing, or it could stay in the lean Obama column.

Polls taken more than ONE YEAR before an election = beyond meaningless

Not necessarily; e.g, PPP had Rehberg up 2 and Heinrich up 5 last summer...those races have hardly changed since.

Bush didn't need it in 2004.

The election is unlikely to be close enough that NH's four electoral votes will matter either way.

But if Obama does well in CO/NM/NV/IA, which he probably will, we could see Romney with 270 like this:

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And Bush and McCain didn't pick a VP nominee from a swing state with Palin and Cheney. Rubio and Portman are on Romney's VP shortlist where FL and OH might be closed.

Sounds about right.

eh, I still think Romney has a better shot in Iowa/Colorado than NH.

That map nails it. If Obama can count on the Gore states in the Midwest plus the trifecta in the Mountain region, he can lose a lot of big states and NH takes on outsize importance. I've been assuming that losing OH, FL, and VA meant losing NH and the election, but if Obama holds NH, it's pretty easy to see him holding a bunch of MW states that rarely vote R and are never more R than the nation as a whole.

He has to have an almost-constant presence in New Hampshire and have huge ad buys. New Hampshire is mostly in an expensive market for ad buys (Boston) for four electoral votes -- and the ad buys would be wasted largely in the market of greater Boston.

If New Hampshire is at all close for Obama, then the state will be flooded with volunteers commuting from greater Boston, Providence, Hartford, etc.