Talk Elections

New president, new thread (largely because I'm too lazy to find the old one). But at any rate, with a professional soap opera/comedy troupe in power and a bunch of people who've lived in palaces and had nice cars with chauffeurs for ten years now living like hobos in opposition, these five years should be fun. Even if Flanby is really proving to be the boring flabby baby he's always been.

The first news is the mini-shuffle, which adds four new people to the cabinet for a total of 38.

The four newbies are:
Thierry Repentin (PS senator from Savoie): junior minister for professional development and learning
Anne-Marie Escoffier (PRG senator from Aveyron): junior minister for decentralization
Guillaume Garot (PS mayor of Laval and deputy from Mayenne, Segogo hack): junior minister for agrifood
Hélène Conway-Mouret (PS senator for French people abroad): junior minister for French citizens abroad

The two major changes are:
Delphine Batho (PS deputy from Deux-Sevres, Segogoist): becomes minister of the environment, sustainable development and energy after being junior minister of nothing under the minister of justice and Grand Moral Figure of the French Republic (Christy Taubira)
Nicole Bricq (PS senator from Seine-et-Marne): the former minister of the environment becomes minister of international trade, a new ministry detached from Mosco's cabinet.

Other minor changes:
Stéphane Le Foll (PS deputy from Sarthe): agriculture minister also adds "forests" to his portfolio (lol)
Sylvia Pinel (PRG deputy from Tarn-et-Garonne, who is semi-hot and my idol of sorts): becomes a full blast cabinet minister; minister of crafts, trade and tourism. In the first cabinet, she'd been under Sir Arnaud Montebourg, First Lord of Saone-et-Loire and Savior of French Manufacturing
Michèle Delaunay (PS deputy from Gironde): in her title as junior minister, 'dependence' becomes 'autonomy' (lolx2)
Benoît Hamon (PS deputy from Yvelines): in his title as junior minister, he gains 'consumption'
Marie-Arlette Carlotti (PS deputy from BDR): in her title as junior minister, she gains 'fight against exclusion' to her portfolio for handicapped people
Yamina Benguigui (nobody knows): loses the 'French citizens living abroad' and is only junior minister for La Francophonie. Big deal.

This basically adds 3 senators, when there had been only one senator in the first cabinet. Garot's inclusion is to help Segogo get over her hilarious crushing. Helene Conway was the last-ditch choice after Axelle Lemaire, the new PS deputy for England/Northern Europe refused the gig. And Escoffier's inclusion and Pinel's promotion are to please Baylet, whose little fit about the PRG's low responsibilities in the first government had an effect.

Excellent idea ! :) Now that France is back to normality, it's time to resume the general thread to discuss about political events.

As for the reshuffle, no meaningful stuff (apart from Bricq's de-facto firing which hints that the environment really isn't exactly Hollande's priority). LOL @ the obvious pandering toward the French abroad. The PS suddenly discovered about them after they gave it 8/11 seats. :P

The new parliamentary groups are as follows :

- Gauche démocrate et républicaine : 15 members (10 FG, 5 overseas left-wing MPs) presided by André Chassaigne.

- Socialiste, républicain et citoyen : 295 members (of which 279 socialists and 16 "apparentés", ie dissidents and miscellaneous overseas MPs) presided by Bruno Le Roux.

- Radical, républicain, démocrate et progressiste : 15 members (12 PRG, the lone MUP guy and Thierry Robert, the MoDem guy elected in Réunion) presided by Roger-Gérard Schwartzenberg.

- Ecologiste : 18 members (17 EELV plus the UDB guy) presided by François de Rugy.

- Union des démocrates et indépendants : 29 members (centrists of all kinds, NC, URCID, AC, independent Radicals, overseas right-wingers and other various rightists) presided by Jean-Louis Borloo.

- Union pour un mouvement populaire : 196 members (185 UMP, 11 "apparentés") presided by Christian Jacob.

9 MPs don't belong in any group (the 3 far-rightists, the MoDem's Jean Lassalle, an overseas left-winger, a MPF, a DLR and two more independent right-wingers).


Claude Bartolone (PS) easily won the election to the presidency, with 298 votes (52%) against 185 (32%) for UMP incumbent Bernard Accoyer. The greens apparently refused to vote for Bartolone because they were pissed off at not getting the presidency of a commissions.

Where can I find a detailed overview of the non-obvious people's group status? (The assembly website I suppose...)

Yup. See this : http://www.assemblee-nationale.fr/14/qui/declarations-groupes.asp

BTW, poor Falorni is in the radical group too.

God, that's unsearchable. They couldn't have actually printed people's group affiliation on the individual member sites?

A few comments about the groups:

The GDR group basically got, on top of the 10 FG, the 2 Martinican nationalists and another Martinican who is close to them (from the RDM), then Huguette Bello, the former Reunionese Communist who left the PCR. The most surprising is Gabrielle Serville, who is from the Guianese Socialist Party (PSG) which I would have thought would have joined the Socialists. It is interesting to note that the MUP deputy (Robert Hue's party) joined the Radical grouping and the 3 MRC deputies joined the Socialist group like Hutin had done in 2007. I guess they recognize who got them where they are in the first place.

The PS dissidents besides Falorni (and also the criminal Andrieux) are 'apparentes' to the SRC group. The MRC, Serge Letchimy and Chantal Berthelot are also in the group. Gabrielle Louis-Carabin, who only five years ago was a strong Sarkozyst from Guadeloupe but who has turned into a leftie, is also in the group.

The Ecolo group will, in reality, have 17 members because Duflot's suppleant is the former PS deputy who will sit, obviously, in the SRC group. The Greenies, who always need to be unique, also have a co-presidency with de Rugy and Barbara Pompili (Somme) as co-prez. But the official rules don't recognize a co-presidency, so I guess de Rugy is First Consul rather than co-president. :)

The Radical group has the 12 PRG deputies, the MUP deputy (in the IDF regional council, the MUP and PRG already form a group), the MoDem guy from La Reunion (who, as I've said before, is pretty leftie and won with leftie votes) and Falorni. Falorni has said that he isn't joining the PRG and is only doing this while the PS stops playing its boring act and lets down its stupid vendetta against him. It's interesting to point out that Sylvia Pinel's suppleant is PS but this is compensated by Cahuzac's PRG suppleant. The official name is 'Radical, Republican, Democratic and Progressive' group. The name 'progressive' is amusing to somebody like me who likes 3rd Republic parliamentary groups, because the 'progressive' groups back then were basically pretty darn conservative right-wingers. The word 'democratic' seems like a new buzzword.

The UDI group is really interesting. In reality, all the NC people - including Lagarde's 5 Urcidistes and the seven other 'morinistes' - have joined it (though Damien Abad, the old NC MEP elected in the Ain, is UMP now. lol morin). Consider that Morin had basically sworn he didn't want to sit in the same group as Lagarde... But only 5 Radicals have joined it (out of a potential total of 12): Borloo, Jego, Reynier and two others who are unimportant. Nice job, Borloo! Otherwise, the group includes all 3 Tahoeraa MPs from Polynesia, the two Caledonie ensemble centre-rightists from NC. Then the group turns into oddballs: Jean-Christophe Fromantin, the maverick centre-right mayor of Neuilly and new DVD deputy; the centrist ex-UDF UMPer Henri Plagnol, but then the sole remaining deputy of the really conservative right-wing CNIP (Gilles Bourdouleix) and F-X Villain, the mayor of Cambrai who is supposed to be in NDA's party (but NDA is a non-inscrit). The most bizarre is Yannick Favennec (Mayenne), who is a liberal (ex-DL) Copeiste (though he's also kind of a maverick and had often ranted against Sarko on tweeter). What took him?

So the UDI is more a group of right-wingers, from real centrists to fake centrists (centre-rightists) to oddball UMPers to really right-wing folks, than an actual centrist grouping. Of course, I've always known to be wary of anything which includes the word 'independant(s)' in it, because indepedants has always meant reactionaries. It's fine to know that some things never change.

The UMP group is unsurprising, of course. The UMP dissidents (people like Solere or Gilles Lurton in Saint-Malo) are in it as 'apparentes' like are the remaining Radicals.

So the non-inscrits include Ary Chalus, the centre-left (GUSR?) deputy from Guadeloupe; the new DVD deputy from Wallis-et-Futuna, Lassalle, the MPF woman and the ex-MPF youngie from Les Sables (apparently approached by the UDI too), NDA and the 3 far-rightists.

There are some bizarre things indeed. MUP in the radical group, PSG in the commie one, GUSR in the non-inscrits... And the UDI is indeed a pretty silly bunch. It seems pretty clear that they desperately tried to gather as many non-UMP righties as they could without caring about policy proposals. So, the centrists will be useless as always.

The austerity will probably be quite bad. The government is already getting out the syrup: it has announced the legalization of gay marriage and adoptions for 2013.

Would somebody please think of the children?

Well, at least Boutin isn't in the Assembly anymore.

Yeah, the first measures seem quite harsh, but I think most French people saw that coming. Only the commies are faking outrage and call Hollande a traitor. Yet, for now at least, all his campaign promises seem to be going to be kept.

Oh great.  Another "left-winger" who promises an alternative to austerity, gets elected, and implements it. 

Ayrault is making his general policy speech right now.

First actual issue he mentions is public debt.

A relatively "aggressive" speech. He is constantly slapping Sarkozy and the past government.

A pretty "serious" speech too, not lyrical at all (except a few times at the beginning when he talked about patriotism and all the fluff).

MPs are so childish. The majority applauds constantly, the opposition boos constantly.

You'll get used to that, the British people have begun to tune that out when Cameron talks like that.

Hurray ! They will repeal the local governments reform !! :D Gaël will be happy.

Back to lyricism for the conclusion. :P

WTF, opposition MPs are leaving ? :o

That's cool I guess. But I hope that they won't just accept the stupid and redundant status-quo, and that they won't treat decentralization as allowing useless regions to build some stupid park in the middle of nowhere. I'm curious as to what alternative they will come up with, just as I'm curious about the introduction of PR and the quasi necessary redistricting which comes along with it.

Yeah, I hope they will do something serious. Getting away with Départements and giving their competences to regions could be useful, IMO. Suppressing préfets or drastically reducing their power should too. But both of course will never happen.

Considering that all three maps we have had so fare have been gerrymandered by the right, seeing some left-wing gerrymandering should be interesting. :P

I'm bothered by the fact that we will be unable to compare anything between old and new constituencies... :(
And I hate PR: it's not fun AT ALL.

As for local reform, you can dream a lot, guys :D
Expect some Raffarin-like reforms...

The answer is clearly to find some way of cloning Gaston Defferre.

Watching David Cameron and Francois Hollande speaking at Downing Street. The media keep asking why Cameron refused to meet Hollande in February. The awkwardness is palpable.

It's pretty clear Cameron despises Hollande. I don't know if there was a big deal in the UK, but his comment about welcoming french fiscal exilees in Britain due to Hollande's proposed tax reforms didn't play very well here.

Might as well put this here...



http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-07-10/noyer-warns-hollande-of-france-s-serious-economic-weakness (http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-07-10/noyer-warns-hollande-of-france-s-serious-economic-weakness)


Blame the unions, as usual. :P

A nice touch that Hollande could welcome Miliband with open arms after their other pleasant meeting in London in February. I guess they see a lot in each other (laughed off as nerdy gorps, getting to the top of their parties despite no one expecting it, hated by the righties in the establishment).

He hasn't had Cameron round at the Elysee either, so it's even more of a lol-ish move.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/07/24/ed-miliband-francois-hollande-elysee-palace_n_1698581.html?utm_hp_ref=uk

He's doing well so far.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/07/31/francois-hollande-digs-cameron-empty-olympics-seats-london-2012-games-corporate_n_1722541.html?utm_hp_ref=uk


LOL, François Hollande is amazing.

You can say what you want about Hollande, but he's got a wonderful wit. ;)

And I'm glad he's willing to stick the knife in after the crap he got from the rightist EU leaders and the international media during the election campaign.

Mmmh, maybe I should contribute actual stuff to this thread instead of letting it become the most boring commentary on HOLLANDE MET THE RANDOM GUY WHO'S LABOUR LEADER, HE'S SO KEWLL!111

In interesting summer news, there's the particularly amusing and bizarre "Dallas-sur-Moselle" case between two right-wing Senators from Moselle who really hate each other and are always seeking to destroy one another.

Marianne apparently leaked a really fascinating conversation between one of them, F. Grosdidier (UMP, mayor of Woippy) and some shady guy about how to destroy the other, J-L. Masson (DVD, the guy who hates bloggers). Besides some great juicy details about how Masson is a nymphomaniac fruitcake, Grosdider says that the only way to destroy him is to have him caught in bed with underage girls in Morocco.

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2012/08/01/a-metz-la-haine-entre-deux-senateurs-de-droite-vire-au-dallas-sur-moselle_1740878_823448.html
http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2012/08/01/francois-grosdidier-et-jean-pierre-masson-des-ennemis-de-trente-ans_1740884_823448.html
http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2012/07/31/un-senateur-suggere-de-pieger-un-adversaire-politique-avec-une-mineure_1740759_823448.html

For reminders, Moselle is also the place where a UMP deputy (Demange or something) in 2008 assassinated his mistress in broad daylight, almost in public, before killing himself afterwards.

In non-underage Arab girls news, Jean-Christophe Lagarde, Morin's enemy, has come around to creating his very own centrist party by splitting off from the NC. It is called the FED - Force europeenne democrate (instead of the Centre humaniste europeen, CHE...). He made a big deal out of it, but the list of those who have signed up for a ride is underwhelming. Besides Michel Mercier, you have only really have Hervé Marseille, Laurent Lafon, François Rochebloine and André Santini. It doesn't appear as if Sauvadet or Leroy, the two other lagardiste NC deputies, have joined him.

Lagarde is the only centrist, with Borloo, who is actually somewhat relevant and a semi-capable politician (in contrast, Morin is a moron), but the creation of like the sixth or seventh centrist party isn't helping their case much.

There's also UMP news, but it takes too long to explain that (and it's too early).

Aha.

Amusing news of the day:

Duflot awarded 30 Legions d'honneurs, including 13 to elected officials (including 6 Greenies) who are all lefties. Lionnel Luca (UMPFN) throws a fit.
http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2012/08/03/cecile-duflot-a-decerne-la-legion-d-honneur-a-plusieurs-membres-de-son-parti_1741917_823448.html

The UMP mayor of Nogent-sur-Marne has a creepy crush on Carlita: he puts up a statue of her in his town
http://bigbrowser.blog.lemonde.fr/2012/08/02/bella-ciao-carla-bruni-immortalisee-en-simple-ouvriere-italienne/#xtor=RSS-32280322

The Légion d'Honneur has been exploited for political (and personal) purposes since its creation. Seriously, do right-wingers want us look back at Sarkozy's appointments ? ::)

Lest we forget, Jean Charest is commandant de la Légion d'honneur. If a corrupt twat who has never done anything for France can have it, then I think EELV in its entirety can get it without there being any problem.

(and Luca would probably prefer to name some fascists instead, so...)

Well, so much for "Le changement, c'est maintenant!"  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-19194639# (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-19194639#) 
Will someone please fire Valls already?

Well, I don't see why PS should close eyes and let people live in illegal and insalubrious camps.
Most kids aren't going to school, nobody pays taxes....
Helping immigrants, yes, letting lawless areas exist, no.

Besides, anyone who expected a Hollande presidency to mark a fundamental or even significant change in immigration policy was quite deluded.

Since the 1970s at the least, French public opinion on immigration has been profoundly conservative (if not borderline xenophobic) and I think there's even been a shift further to the right on immigration since 2007 with the economic crisis and all. According to an Ipsos poll right before April 22, 66% agreed with the old statement "there are too many immigrants in France", against 'only' 48% who agreed with the same statement in the CEVIPOF's 2007 post-election Panel. Sure, a majority of left-wingers disagree with that statement, but while you have only 10% or so of Sarko voters who disagree with it, you still have "only" 60% of left-wing voters who disagree.

And while I didn't find similar data on 2012 or 2007, old data for the past elections has shown that on the topic of immigration, those who said that Le Pen had the best solutions was significantly above Le Pen's actual vote share in the election. For a similar point of reference, Sarkozy always scored the best against Flanby on the question of "fighting illegal immigration" or something along those lines. Some 65-70% of respondents answered that they trusted Sarko more than Hollande on immigration.

Given how a small but not insignificant part of the PS/the left's destruction in 2002 was due to the perception - fair or unfair - that Jospin's government had been 'soft on crime' and too liberal/lenient on immigration, the PS has been eager (and made no secret about it) about reconquering the issue of immigration/public safety from the UMP/FN since then. Valls built a lot of his image within the party as one of those 'tougher' guys within the PS who was helping the left reconquer the issue.

(another Hash effortpost which serves no purpose)

If Fillion wins, he's running in 2017. Shocking.
http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2012/08/11/francois-fillon-2017-ump-candidature-presidentielle_n_1766972.html?utm_hp_ref=france

Fillon, not FillIon.

The correct spelling is Fion, of course.

Embarrassing typo

No, because Filion is way more common than Fillon.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-19261885

There's something about Valls which really reminds me of Sarko, although it's probably just me.

There's also something about Hollande that really reminds me of Sarko.  At least, the way he's been governing.  Just not as forcefully, but with the same aims and philosophy in mind. 

LOL, I wasn't even aware these riots were going on. Since I came to SF I haven't been following any French news. Well, wow. I think I need some more info to comment on the events, but from what I gather it seems like big stuff.



He might not be as left-wing as we'd like him to be (even then, it's early to judge), but this is objectively false. Or at least, indicates that your criteria for "ideological similarity" are very loose.

I said that more with anger than analytical depth :P But he's basically endorsed the austerity that's being imposed upon the Greeks and let Merkel have her way.  No renegotiation of the fiscal compact whatsoever, even though he kept saying he would.  And now they've ratified it.  Not to mention his spending cuts.  And even a really hardcore supporter of his would have to admit that his "raising" of the minimum wage was a total joke.  I mean, 2%, really?  God, if only there were a way to go back in time and hold the PS primary all over again. 

commandeur, not commandant ;)

My grand-grand-father sent back his own after WW2, seeing how many had earned it without doing anything. And he didn't know that Johnny Hallyday would earn it too...
Well, he won his own by fighting during WW1 AND WW2...

Wow... that's nearly as much of a joke as the honours we give out.

BTW, the government's approvals apparently have been plummeting in the past weeks. I'm not entirely sure, but it seems that it has to do with high gas prices and poor economic numbers (and the government's perceived lack of action).

Obviously their fault. ::)

That's it, the government just lowered the price of one liter of gas by 0,06 €. Huge priority for a left-wing government to spend its money on... -___-'

Oh and Montebourg said that nuclear power was a "sector with a future" (un secteur d'avenir), the Greens are pretty pissed but they either resign or shut up. So they shut up. Glad we the FdG didn't negotiate ministers beforehand like those did...

Wow, this government really is becoming a train wreck really fast. 

Montebourg's right though. This is the problem with Greens, they're never satisfied.

Montebourg is neither right nor wrong : it is a question of political will. He could just have consulted his junior green government partner before expressing such an affirmation. That is to say, if any socialist had any consideration whatsoever for their coalition partners... :-P

Hollande unveiled his tax plan yesterday.

After the worrying hesitations of the past weeks, this doesn't seem too bad. The main burden will really be on the wealthier, with a progressive taxation of capital gains, a cap in tax loopholes, a rise in the weath tax and in the highest income tax brackets.

Still, however, it fails to address the structural issues of the French taxation system. Sigh...

And I hear the richest guy in France has applied for Belgian citizenship. ::)

To put it with Libération: Casse-toi, riche con.

Lots of criticism can be addressed to Libération, but one thing is for sure: their titles are awesome.

And these are somehow good things, to be welcomed?

They at the very least can be for those of us who don't consider rich people arahitogami.

苛斂誅求

The old adage that taxpayers are like sesame seeds (you can always get more oil from sesame seeds!) has not proven exactly true. See: France's richest man.

For those who care about the millions of people who would actually suffer if the this burden was imposed on them rather than on those who can afford it... yeah.

I hope they will calculate with prudence that the actual revenue of the taxes will be half of what they hope, They can't be so stupid not thinking this, and what for raising the country's competitiveness, considering that after these new taxes it's lagging behind even more?

Believing everybody should pay the same tax rate -- or at least thinking that rich people don't inherently deserve to pay a greater percent of their income -- doesn't mean you consider them arahitogami.


The first question should be if this burden should be placed on anyone, but ultimately it's a question of fairness. If rich people are paying a smaller percent of their income than poor people, raise their taxes (or lower poor people's taxes) -- it's unfair. But the opposite is also unfair, and the fact that rich people can handle it doesn't make it any better. That said, those who are so poor that such a tax rate would call their survival into question should have a lower rate...but rich people should not have a higher rate, and it strikes me as really awful that you're celebrating people being robbed.

To state my ideology more broadly, income inequality is not a problem. Poverty is a problem. (I will be pissed if someone quotes the first sentence out of context on one of the Deluge threads on Forum Community.) The fact that some people don't have enough money to survive is a problem. They deserve help. The fact that some people have more than enough isn't. All of society, not just rich people, should bear a section of the burden of supporting poor people. There's a reason that taxes are in percents, not flat amounts of cash -- so that it's fair. It would be unfair to demand the same amount of $ from the middle-class as the rich. It would also be unfair to demand a higher %. Call it regressive if you want. In fact, if a higher tax rate on the 1% than literally everyone else is progressive, I'll revel in the label.


Funny, but that particular old adage is very true. The fact that one man escaped doesn't mean that others will.

Since you're making it a "justice" issue, I have to say I find it really hard to justify the current inequalities of incomes based on merit. In other words, Steve Jobs is not worth one million of your average workers. But since this is a philosophical issue, there is no way one of us can possibly convince each other, so let's leave that behind.

I'll rather focus on pointing out the logical and economic inconsistency of your proposal. So, you say, those who "can't afford" to pay taxes shouldn't pay any, and everyone else should pay in proportion to income (say 10%). This already indicates that there's a basic problem with pure flat taxation: there are certain people who can't do without this 10% of their income. Now, where do you draw the line between those who "can afford" paying taxes an those who can't? Is it those who need this 10% to avoid starving? To buy a house? A car? Health insurance (in the US at least)? To pay for their kids' education? If you draw the line at the lower level, I'm not sure you will have done much against poverty. But if you draw it at the upper level, that means you make no difference between the poorest of the poor (who physically can't afford to pay taxes) and the more marginal cases (who could afford to pay taxes, but for whom paying taxes makes a substantial difference in their living standards).

See, the problem is that there is not, on one side, "the poor", and on the other side, everybody else. Society is a continuum of living standards, which goes from a starving homeless to Mitt Romney. It does not suddenly become "affordable" to pay a 10% tax. Rather, you have levels of affordability ranging from "I'll die if I pay taxes" to virtually no difference at all. And here we come at the very reason why you have progressive taxation: because money does not mean the same thing to everybody. Take a billionaire 10% of his income, and all he'll do is have a bit less money to save (which would have served no purpose apart from further augmenting his wealth). Take an upper-middle class person 10% of his income, and he will have to renounce to a flat-screen TV or the last iPad. Take a middle-class person 10% of his income, and he won't be able to pay for his kid's higher education. Take a lower-middle class person 10% of his income, and he won't be able to afford health insurance. Take a working-class person 10% of his income, and he might not be able to pay his rent. Etc... So, as "just" and "fair" as it might look in pure abstraction, flat taxation does not merely maintain the society's inequalities: it increases them. Progressive taxation makes sense because it takes into account what concrete difference taking money away from someone makes in its everyday life, beyond your poor/non-poor dichotomy.

You might not care about this, since wealth equals merit, and if you don't want to suffer from flat taxation you just have to work harder and make more money. But here's when things get really interesting. Let's get back to your plan: no tax for the poor (whatever you define as such), 10% for everybody else. Who gets screwed in this scenario? The middle class. The poor don't pay, so they stay the same. The middle class, being just wealthy enough to be subject to taxation, is the category for which taxation has the most concrete impact. While they might not become outright poor, their standard of living is significantly deteriorated and they have now to focus on their basic needs. Well, I've got a scoop for you: this is the best recipe for economic ruin. Every modern, post-industrial economy is based on the middle class for its subsistence. Because the middle class is the category that actually consumes the income it earns. The wealthy only consume a tiny part of their income, the rest being saved. And without people to buy stuff, there's no economy. The middle class is what provides the customers without whom no business can thrive. When you're left without a middle class, all you can do is live off export, but that works only as long as other countries have middle classes to buy your products. So, it is not only fairer, but also more economically effective, to tax more heavily those for which money matters the less.

In short, there is a reason why even the most extreme neoliberals in most places don't advocate for flat taxation: it's a mind-numbingly stupid idea whose sheer unfairness and economically disastrous natures makes it laughed at by any serious economist or social thinker.

I don't think I will ever convince you, but, for once, I decided to be optimistic and hope that providing an articulate response to such bullsh*t could not be a complete waste of time. I probably won't be doing that again any time soon.

He's not worth a million workers, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have a right to use the money he earned however he wants to.


OK.


I agree with you so far...


In answer to the first question, of where the line should be drawn, I honestly don't know; this is something that should be decided by an elected legislature, and I think it's enough of an ethical issue that I can't come up with an answer on the spot. Should those who literally cannot afford to pay taxes be forced to pay a rate that they simply cannot provide? No, and I mention that in my post.


I think you could go further in either direction, but on this I can agree.


It's not sudden, as there are shades. But nevertheless, there is a boundary; there is a certain point at which you are so poor that 'everyone else's' tax rates shouldn't apply to you, and there is beyond that.


Really? He could've invested it and created jobs, or contributed it to charity, or in other ways done very useful things with it. Or, alternatively, he could've saved it, which he has the right to do with his money. But I see your point -- he doesn't need it.


Countries that actually have a flat tax (like the Czech Republic and the Baltic states) don't actually seem to have such a high income inequality, though...though I will agree this argument is difficult to refute.


But it's still not fair because you're taking someone else's money and giving it to someone. That's the point, ultimately -- it's not fair to say, you have a lot, you have a little, give him your stuff. It's fair to ask society to say, help this person who only has a little.


This idea that right-wing economics means you think wealth=merit is pretty old and pretty untrue. I don't think wealth=merit. I think that it is unfair to take another person's things, which they fairly own. This is the key point, and if we can't agree on it there's no use to debating at all. As for the second part of the sentence, we both know that's not necessarily practical.


Ah, but if the poor aren't taxed, they require less money from the government to provide basic necessities -- which lessens the amount the middle-class must pay. The poor don't pay, but because of this they get less stuff.


Would it be, at least in the short run in the US, a tax increase on the middle-class? I'm going to admit, yes. Which is why I don't favor immediate adoption (France is still marching on and making it's tax system worse, which is why I brought this up in the first place). But because I think a flat tax would help the economy (trickle-down, laugh all you want), it would ultimately even out.


This is true, basically, though it's not necessarily true the wealthy save everything and only spend a bit of it; some do that, but not all.


The point is that in the long run the middle-class would be helped...


You could ask 43 countries and several U.S. states who are doing OK...certainly the idea that nobody takes it seriously is simply incorrect. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flat_tax#Around_the_world


I don't think either of us will ever convince the other, but it's good to engage in debate -- it forces you to present your own views in a logical manner and debate them with those of the other person. I'll admit you're more knowledgeable on this issue than I am -- it doesn't change my opinion, but I'll say it.

Uh-uh

Well, that's already a huge weakness in your vision of what "justice" is. Because, from your statements, I gather that a fair tax system is one in which everybody pays the same share. Deviating from that rule means "taking money from someone to give it to someone else" as you said before. If this is the only just system - if, in other words, this is a moral rule - it ought to be universally true (morality is made of categorical imperatives (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Categorical_imperative) and suffers no exception clauses). So, the possibilities are two. Either your idea of taxation is morally right, which means that it is also morally right to ask a starving man to give up 10% of his income. Or it is not. This doesn't mean it is morally wrong of course, there can be other reasons to support it. But if you yourself admit that your system doesn't work in its pure form, if you admit that there can be an exception, then you cannot, on a moral ground, object to further exceptions, even if enough "exception" will eventually make the system progressive.




Yeah, I see. But then you have to define what are one's "basic needs". And if you have an extensive definition of what one's "basic needs" are (including things like education, health care, etc.), then the number of people who would be excluded from taxation - and thus the flat rate imposed to the others - would be so high, that the resulting tax system wouldn't be much different from progressive taxation, just rendered completely silly by the fact you would go from paying nothing to paying an enormous amount of taxes.



Well, these are countries exiting from communist regimes, so, in terms of income inequalities, the started off very low. Still, if you search for a correlation between flat taxation and income inequality, I'm confident that the result will be clear.



You might not like it, but taking someone else's money and giving it to someone is part of the State's prerogatives. The collective's right to socialize and redistribute a certain part of one's wealth is broadly accepted as a part of the social contract in all modern democracies. It is fairly understandable that you think your money belongs to you and not to your neighbor, but as long as you live in a society and accept its common rule, you also have to accept that such society, through a democratic vote, can oblige you to contribute financially for the society's greater good. There is absolutely nothing unfair with that. Especially considering how much every one of us (and the wealthier in particular) owe to the society and how screwed they would be without it.



Well, we've got a huge problem here. Because if wealth doesn't equal merit, this means some people have more than they deserve, and some have less. You can say they have earned their money, but have they earned it by working hard and doing something good for the collective? Have they earned it by inheritance? Have they earned it because they got help from people in a position of power/influence? Have they earned it by gambling (which is what the stock market is about, after all)? Have they earned it by tricking people? If there are so many ways to earn wealth that are unfair and/or detrimental to the greater number, why is the right to enjoy what you earned so sacred?

It's not like, even if wealth equaled merit, progressive taxation would be unfair: after all, the fact you are successful doesn't mean you don't have a moral duty to help those who didn't succeed like you. But the way reality work, and the way money is so often unfairly earn, makes your moral stance further absurd.



Do you realize that, in all countries which substantial welfare states, the very poor don't pay taxes anyways? Do you know many serious countries where, say, the bottom 5% is taxed? I might be wrong, but I highly doubt it's the case. So your plan is, let's stop taxing the poor who aren't taxed anyways, but in exchange, let's shut down the programs aimed to help them. I'm sure they'll like your idea.



Yes, indeed, please let me laugh. A theory which has been put in place for 30 years now and never, ever worked (to be more specific, it produced short-lived bounces followed by huge recessions which canceled all benefits) ought to be laughed at. Or at least it would be laughed at if it hadn't been such a tragedy for mankind, steadily eroding the fruits of decades of social progress and bringing us back to the 19th century.



By what, your trickle-down magic? Sure, that's why the median income in the US today is the same as it was back in the 1970s, after years of Reaganomics and tax cuts of all kinds for the wealthy. The same, despite all the growth in the overall wealth. In which hands do you think all that growth ended up? Seriously, it would be nice to at least acknowledge basic realities.



Well, I notice that none of them (tax heavens aside) is a developed western country. This might be indicative of something... If your role model for a country is Czech Republic, Mongolia, Saudi Arabia or Andorra, I would guess something is wrong with your principles.

I find it unfair that any government should take anyone's money at all. Who are they to do that anyway ?

Without taxes, there's no government whatsoever, so...

I think it is irony.

It appears the rich aren't taking it anymore (http://www.france24.com/en/20121007-rich-businessmen-pulling-out-france-tax-hit-looms)

You put it as if they were actually suffering. Don't be silly.

Well that campaign just made the "socialist" government back up... Sadness.

In other news, Benoit Hamon is praising the Quebec cooperative model.

Wait, what happened?

Well, the government backed off on their will to increase the tax business holders have to pay when they sell their shares in their companies and make money with that.

We don't have a left-wing government, I really can't see it.

Francois Hollande lurches Right in historic U-Turn to save French economy (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9659504/Francois-Hollande-lurches-Right-in-historic-U-Turn-to-save-French-economy.html)

I can't believe I'm defending Socialistes...

Really, while in the beginning on the mandate I wasn't that hopeful about them given their behavior in the opposition during all those years, I'm not unpleased at all to see what they manage to do so far.

I love how Hollande also keeps managing being the guy that everybody underestimates but succeeds to achieve stuffs, the big press conference he just held wasn't bad at all. So far I'd think he'd typically be in the situation of the guy everybody laugh and loath because people don't see immediate results or would like to have someone with a more impressive attitude, but, unless big bad event, all what he is doing would begin to pay in about 2 years, and lol, Ayrault, which would be replaced after Municipales/Européennes would have only known the bad weather (well, after all he is Breton, he should be used to it...), people who make the discrete tough efforts are rarely paid...

I also loved to see the reaction of all those over annoying barons, of the left and right, after Jospin's proposal to forbid the cumulation of mandates, and all of his other proposals for the renewal of institutions were not unpleasant either.

Vas-y Lionel! Shoote les Barons!

Vas-y Francky c'est bon! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bONeCoik1Ts)

I'll make a point on your criticisms of the flat tax.  Flat Taxes are more than about economics, a Flat Tax is about morality. It is not moral for someone to have to pay 75% of their income (as I'm guessing you support) just for the 'crime' of being rich. The politics of jealousy has never worked economically, but neither I believe has it ever stood up from a moral viewpoint. The idea 'he has more than me, he must be brought down to my level' is just what is wrong with left-wing thinking on the economy, as opposed to right-wing thinking which suggests 'he has more than me, how can I get to his level'. Hopefully you can guess which is more positive. A flat tax is a perfectly moral tax to adopt, as if all are equal (again a touchstone of the left) surely they should be equal in tax as well.

Also with your criticisms of 'trickle-down', you seem to forget that what came before, attempts to 'guide' the economy as well as priming the pump with excessive government spending, failed dismally in the 1970's, if it could ever be said to have worked. Then of course we have the planned economy. Hopefully that has been totally discredited and will never be tried again. Your criticisms of trickle down as wiping out all the gains of growth is absurd. In 2012, most people have a far higher standard of living than they did in 1972, this supposed 'golden era' of social solidarity and progress.

Well all isn't equal - not in the least - and so your equal taxation doesn't remotely apply in our disgustingly unequal societies. Thankfully we have progressive taxation to readdress that to varying degrees.

Where is your evidence for that? In Britain we've seen the acceptance of significant levels of unemployment, alongside the disappearance of pensions, affordable homing, regulated rents, decent - and rising - wages, affordable and subsidised transport and higher education (with the need for both having risen exponentially). That's the tangible stuff. Other important losses are the belief you'll be bringing up your children into a better future, you're guaranteed a job if you look for one, the belief that if you work hard enough throughout your life you're entitled to a comfortable retirement and that workers have enough strength that you don't have to accept every one of the bosses demands.

Yes but we're not living in the world of philosophical debates on the nature of money. We're talking about bread and butter issues here, I believe if someone recieves a pay-packet for a days work done, then frankly that is their money.


To answer your first point, what exactly have the rich done wrong in order to merit losing 75% of their income, in order to simply give it to the poor, who may or may not be deserving people.

Your second point, correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think unemployment has passed 12% in the UK since the 1930's. A significant level of unemployment is something like 25-30% out of work. The current unemployment rate is 7.9% I think. Most of the rest of what you say is simply fantasy economics as:

a)
The Government doesn't have the power to keep wages at 'decent - and - rising' levels, unless you live in a command economy. The government's attempts to 'guide' the economy as you seem to be suggesting here are doomed to failure.

b)
People have had this belief for most of the period between the early 80's and 2008. This loss of belief that your children would have a better future was widespread in the 1970's, in fact so was the belief that western society was on the edge of collapse. Again your belief that people should be 'guaranteed a job if you look for one' is only one that can be achieved by the government taking control and micromanaging the economy. This, 'workers have enough strength that you don't have to accept every one of the bosses demands' is nonsense, its this kind of militant attitude that is the reason for the collapse of western manufacturing not the 'evil policies' of Thatcher and Reagan.

At the risk of sounding like leftie-drone, this is awful.

Hollande can't risk making Sarko's mistake and driving his voters into the arms of MLP.

Progressive taxation is certainly more than fair to higher earners as well (within reason).

30% to someone making $50,000 a year is much more meaningful and relevant to that person's standard of living than 40% to someone making $1 million.

Driving people in the hands of MLP because of this? lol, no. That's not at all the scheme into which MLP could earn voters, it's more likely bad for her, because this measure is seen like a rather balanced and constructive one by most of the classical political class (MEDEF approved of it!), and actually it's part of stuffs that participates to make social relationships more peaceful. It's actually a balanced one, and not something betraying the Socialistes ideas, those who don't like it had to support stuffs like 'Mélenchon'.

I'd say that a 25-30% unemployment rate is not significant, it's catastrophic. These are the levels that reached USA and Germany in the 30's. Curiously, Spain has reached 25% this year. A 12% of unemployment is terrible enough and a 7.9% rate is regarded as quite bad in countries like USA. Since your nick is 'Mittens' you must be well aware.  I don't want to look like a prophet of disaster, but everybody knows the consequences of that financial crisis of 1929 (Hitler, II World War, etc). Since the current financial crisis has certain parallelisms with the 30's, as some experts like to remember sometimes, we're not living in the better world possible and it's quite worrying the fate of Europe, and not only in the troubled South, if its leaders persist in following the same suicide policies. The reasons of the financial collapse following the Lehman Brothers issue are arguably related to certain economic practices that favoured speculative economy instead of the 'real' or productive economy. Claiming that unions or 'militant attitudes', as you say, are guilty of the downfall of western manufacturing is hilarious, to say the least. Everybody knows that this path to glory was inspired by theories devoutly followed by Thatcher and Reagan.

This thread is derailed by dangerous Marxists, how funny.

There were strikes and anti-austerity marches across Europe and especially in the southern countries. In many marches "We are all Europeans" was chanted. In some cases EU flags were burned. Clearly the EU is fulfilling its dream of uniting Europeans...against them.

Actually, I would beg to differ. This is typically the type of political betrayal that will make Hollande's electors think : "well we elected him to fire Sarko, and basically he's doing more of the same on everything that matters economically". So it's typically the kind of things that feed the whole "UMPS tous pareils, tous pourris" FN rhetorics... And, frankly, how can you prove them wrong ?... Gay marriage ? People actually do not care that much about that, but they care about giving the company that fired their brother or their son several fukcing millions of € when they have nil, or even have more to pay on their own in tax.

You seem to be proud that Medef approved of that, and that most of the classical political class as well. Well here's the thing : "most of the classical political class" is right-wing, and most is disconnected from the public. Soooo yeah, they approve of it. How about the people ?

But since you speak "stuffs like 'Mélenchon'" as if you took a tissue to throw a stale fruit in the bin, I guess you won't be hearing what I say here...

What exactly have rich people done to deserve multiples of what the average worker collects? The state would be a better judge of who and what is deserving than the bastardised market we have now, and can distribute the money accordingly (or use it for infrastructure and in doing so create jobs).

As has already been intimated, your definition of significant unemployment is just absurd but at least accurately reflects how low the ambitions your model sets itself.


There was a shake in the belief in response to the 70's oil crisis but neither the austerity nor the unemployment caused compare to todays conditions (and you had a strong labour movement and more belief in the political process to counteract that). No, today's outlook is far more bleak and rightly so.

The rest of your response seems to come from a bizarre belief that government intervention is a self-evident evil and as such it does to point out the record of the post-war settlement ("fantasy economics") includes interventionist policies with the implication it therefore can't be done. As someone who completely rejects that discredited belief I've nothing to respond to.

Implementing Jospin's proposals on institutional reform is part of what I consider as non-negotiable in order for Hollande's tenure to deserve any other mention than "epic fail". I hope he doesn't shy away from this as all his predecessors did.

Strongly agree with this. I even think he should consider to do more than Jospin's proposals in order to show more leadership.

For example, Jospin's proposal on proportional representation is the election of 58 MPs on this basis. Hollande proposed the election of 100 MPs via PR during his campaign. I hope he will remember this.

Welcome to the forum, BTW! :)

Un nouveau venu parmi les Français? Malgré mon avatar, je suis Français aussi (et Italien, mais c'est une longue histoire). Je suis à Sciences Po, et là j'étudie pour un an à San Francisco dans le cadre d'un échange. ;)

Thanks ;)

Oui, je suis français (d'origine italienne, mais je n'en parle pas un mot).

As with every government, we'll probably get some bullsh**t institutional reform which won't fundamentally change anything and certainly won't be anything noticeably better than the current structure. Isn't their local government reform supposed to be a return to the status-quo?

C'est vrai? Alors ça c'est incroyable! :) Bienvenue en tout cas.

Moi, je ne saurais que repeter plus ou moins literalement les mots de Antonio pour te souhaiter bienvenue, Gino. Alors, je t'epargnai cette repetition fatiguante,...

Bien construit tes deux identités, Antonio ;D
(it's a joke, of course)

BTW, my University Sciences Po is in an epic sh*tstorm right now. Apparently their finances were all over the place.

lol, continues to be quite balanced...

Those words can only be the words of someone who voted for Mélenchon. :P

Actually, Hollande hasn't been elected to implement a revolution. Any thing that could actually pass will be welcome, bitching around is quite easy, making politics is something else (all those people who chanted 'YES WE CAN!' might have figured it out since then...). And all what he does, from a classical political perspective, is so far quite good, no matter what one can think about the situation of our society and which actual change one can wishes, all what can go in the good direction is something good to be taken. By the way, it seems to me that the political level is not here to create change in a society, it's here to deal with an already existing reality, so, we deal with what our country is, we have the political class we 'deserve'...

Cumulation of mandates is also the institutional reform a lot of French are the most pushy about if you believe polls, so it would be the one which has the most chances to pass. And frankly, I agree, as a 1st minimum step of institutional reform, the only fact to no more have to deal with all those freaking annoying barons by forbidding the mandate accumulation would be......WOOHOO!!. I already love to see Rebsamen and Collomb annoyed faces and all those other ones who try to pitifully explain you how it is totally necessary to cumulate mandates...

As for the proportional part of the Assemblée, yeah, it's quite ridiculous, but once again, those who complain had to vote for Mélenchon. :P

Cumulation of mandates in France:

()

()

()

Sorry not to translate all, you gonna ask if you want precisions.

Owni did a quite good animation summing of the situation in France about that (as they often do for C Politique on France5 each Sunday):

http://datablog.owni.fr/2012/11/12/cdata-le-cumul-des-mandats/

And in this they brought the most astonishing stat to me, the comparison with other countries, 1st the fact that France is the 1st at cumulating mandates (not surprised), and overall, the fact that people with both a national and local mandate reaches 83% (I've been surprised to see Sweden as 2nd with 35%...).

They add that here an MP can have till 4 local mandates (mayor of a -3.500 habs city, MP, leading an 'intercommunality', and leading a département), less than 25% of our MPs have only one mandate, 42% of deputies are also mayors, 45/101 départements are also led by a MP.

They also speak about the fact that, thankfully, they can't cumulate money beyond the limit of 8.300€ (which already is a freaking limit! no matter how small it can look like compared to the insane ones of some companies/banks/other insane stuffs)...but...they can have the money that goes beyond this limit in order to hire some people, then they can create their little 'elective industries'...

Bloody France. The only fact to change that wouldn't be easy, so...


It would take a while before having deeper change in the society, and might as well also be a matter of generation, and the preceding generation wouldn't be easy to move from its place, and the next ones are too much in a foggy situation right now, when you see how it can happen on a forum of people interested in politics, how do you want it goes better elsewhere...? ;D


Yeah, seems that his last boss wasn't that wonderful... :P

I'm quite torn on this issue, because it's undeniable that Descoings and his team did a formidable job in turning Sciences Po around, opening it to the international scene and reaching out to people outside of the privileged bubble. He might have thought that such a job justified ripping off the school's finances with outrageous salaries, and I of course disagree. :P So, yeah, it's time to overhaul the school's functioning and dismantle the Descoings' system. But his reputation shouldn't be entirely tarnished by this.

To paraphrase you : those words can only be the words of someone who voted for a shallow blob.

You say the political level is not here to create change in a society, but only to deal with an already existing reality : well you're wrong. That is the job of the administrative level. If you have political programs and a choice, it is in fact because they're supposed to change things, even if I'll grant it to you that they don't nowadays. Well when they're right-wing they do, they change things to benefit their friends...

Hmm, I spoke about actual change, the political level creates none of the change, it accepts a reality or tries to fight it. The society changes by itself, the political level can't go beyond what a society actually is. The 'change' they brought through their programs is some change a society already wishes, they create nothing. Each time it tried, they had some problems (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7NB_RwtPx4), millions of people paid the price of this fantasy notably in the 20th century (gosh what a sake we have left that epoch...).

In short the only change they can bring effectively is an administrative one, which isn't necessarily something slight, and it's necessary, it's called Right, and can be tough to gain, Syrians would be able to witness that nowadays to take an obvious example, or women who fought for having abortions, or black people for civil rights and so on, but once again, the political creates none of the actually occurring change of a society.

Civilization doesn't wait Politics to change (thankfully!), or one more time, each time some tried, ils ont eu des problèmes... (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7NB_RwtPx4) (it's better to put a Régis and Laspalès video, than one recapitulating all the colonial empires, the USSR, all the 'Communist' and Fascist regimes and so many of those fancy stuffs brought by the 20th century, isn't it?). It accepts it or not. It deals with a reality of a society actually is and wishes. And in French nowadays society what are the deep changes that are wished...?

Hollande fits pretty much what the French society is, add to this his personal quality, and really he doesn't deserve some fuss against him, neither does most of what the Socialiste administration did.

Politics can and do change things. Look at history, there are plenty of examples of this.

If I thought for a single instant that the politicians' only job was to "deal with an already existing reality", I wouldn't bother voting.

Which is what a growing number of our contemporaneous do, actually, because of people like Benwah...

What a pity. Benwah, do you really think that there is absolutely no political influence on how and where a society changes ? In that case, I really don't get why you would prefer any political side to another...

I'd like to state that I warmly support Jérôme Cahuzac.

Nobody cares, I know, but, well, I've always supported politicians who want to do something, whatever their personal probity. At one point, moral corruption is the big thing, not financial one.
And I'm fed up with these medias that view themselves as "picking angels" or Archangel Michael or St.Peter just after your death...

BTW, the attack on Cahuzac is another sign that the leftist basis will soon enter into rebellion against Hollande.
Though he has dropped in polls, it's only among rightists, centrists and FN voters for the moment. But, soon, with civil servants and local public bodies which will be trounced and strangled (as they'd NEVER have been under Sarkozy... and IF Cahuzac is still here to make all the cuts needed...), let's expect a big disappointment and then a big rebellion from public TUs and even from some local socialist barons.

So, forward, Cahuzac and Mosco !

Anyone is presumed innocent until proven guilty, and many have said that they don't recognize Cahuzac's voice in the registration. However, if it's true, that's absolutely unforgivable. You can't be a minister (especially a left-wing minister) asking people for sacrifices of all sorts while your money is safely hidden in some tax heaven. That's just disgusting. You know how much I despise Woerth, I won't treat Cahuzac differently because he's left-wing.



Really? Really?!?

I won't despise Cahuzac because I don't despise Woerth ;)
People want to have Saints in government whil they don't believe in God any longer: it's quite difficult ;)

As for civil servants, just wait for 2013: it'll be very, very bloody...
Already, we see our everyday budgets being cut.

Constitutional Council (our SC) just overturned Hollande's 75% tax bill, on a technicality. Just when the government seemingly could not prove any more incompetent, it turns out they are even unable to properly draft legislation.

There's going to be some big anti-gay marriage/adoption 'manif' on Sunday, which is going to have an interesting mix of charming people - Collard, PanzerMiss and PanzerDaddy (but not PanzerGirl), Gollnisch (Holocaust denier), JF Cope (vote rigger) and his tool (Jacob), Hortefeux, Pecresse, Bertrand alongside a nice mix of far-right reactionary Catholics, neo-Nazi types, assorted skinheads, homophobes and the like. I'm sure the browns and Muslims will be pleased to know that the far-right and the UMP doesn't hate only them...

Le Monde has details: http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2013/01/09/mariage-gay-qui-ira-manifester-a-l-ump-et-au-fn_1814269_823448.html
It also provides a nice list of raging homophobes vs. more tolerable opponents

Pécresse too? Dear Lord...

French protest at Eiffel Tower against plan to legalise gay marriage and adoption (http://blogs.reuters.com/faithworld/2013/01/13/french-protest-at-eiffel-tower-against-plan-to-legalise-gay-marriage-and-adoption/)

By Tom Heneghan
JANUARY 13, 2013

Several hundred thousand people massed at the Eiffel Tower in Paris on Sunday to protest against President Francois Hollande’s plan to legalize gay marriage and adoption by June.

Three columns of protesters, waving pink and blue flags showing a father, mother and two children, converged on the landmark from different meeting points in Paris. Many came after long train and bus rides from the provinces.

Champ de Mars park at the Eiffel Tower was packed, but turnout estimates varied widely. Organisers claimed 800,000 had protested, while police put the number at 340,000, high even in protest-prone France.

Hollande has pledged to push through the law with his Socialists’ parliamentary majority but the opponents’ campaign has dented public support and forced deputies to put off a plan to allow lesbian couples access to artificial insemination.

“Nobody expected this two or three months ago,” said Frigide Barjot, a flamboyant comedian leading the “Demo for All”. At the rally, she read out a letter to Hollande asking him to withdraw the draft bill and hold an extended public debate on the issue.

Strongly backed by the Catholic Church hierarchy, Barjot and groups working with her mobilized church-going families and political conservatives as well as some Muslims, Protestant evangelicals and even homosexuals opposed to gay marriage to protest.

I still doubt Hollande will give up on this. He has to give something to his base, which is already pissed off by his fiscal policies and will be even more once the serious spending cuts kick in. Societal reforms are a good way to gain leftist credentials without having to spend much. ;)



OMG. I assume that's not her real name. :o

*cough* David Cameron *cough*

Cameron did not really need leftist credentials, though. :P

No, in his case I meant "moderate" credentials to hide right-wing economic policy.

But Hollande does not have large segments of his own party fiercely opposed to gay marriage, fortunately. ;)

Hollande would be unbelievably retarded to backtrack on this (well, he already is unbelievably retarded, but that's another matter). Nobody besides a small collection of reactionary olds and the usual homophobes actually cares all that much about this, and when pressed it's something like 60% who want gay marriage (sure, gay adoption isn't as popular, but still).

Exactly. Fine in opposition. In government it just looks like you're leaving the rest of the country to it.

Apparently, support for SSM in France has collapsed from about 70% to 50% within the past year.

How accurate is this ?

No, support for marriage has hovered between 60 and 65% since 2004.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jan/27/french-rally-support-gay-marriage-bill

Love you France :)

There was an anti gay marriage protest 2 weeks before which attracted 3 times the number of protesters. Do you hate France now?

New thing. Welcome to the board I moderate :D

I'm aware of the protest a few weeks ago. It's very easy to get people to march against something, especially if you happen to have churches ready to bus people into the city. It's not so easy to have a march for gay rights that attracts the number that marched yesterday.

Yeah, the silent majority sides with the government (and with History) on this issue, and I am confident that this will easily get through no matter how much the paranoid reactionaries will whine.

There's also way less reasons to go out and support the law, because (a) while most support gay marriage, few are really fired up about it - unlike opponents, which are a majority but way more fired up; (b) the supporters don't need to pressure anybody because the government won't back down a lot so going out to support the law is kind of useless and really symbolic  - otoh, the opponents by going out in big numbers may hope to pressure the government into changing its position (which won't happen, because even Flanby and his nincompoops aren't that retarded).

Mali?

http://www.liberation.fr/politiques/2013/01/28/les-sondages-un-peu-moins-mauvais-pour-hollande-et-ayrault_877399

Most likely, yeah.

The gay marriage debate has started. Taubira made a surprisingly powerful and stirring defense of gay marriage and destroyed the right's strawman arguments; the right wants a referendum (which would be arguably unconstitutional); the right continues to prove that they're raging homophobes from the 1860s (speaking about 'nature' and that awful stuff). Jacques Bompard (fascist creep from the Vaucluse) is trolling, and has proposed amendments to legalize polygamy, incest, marriages between minors and family members but also getting rid of marriage altogether.

Here's a diagram of how the deputies should vote: http://www.lemonde.fr/societe/visuel/2013/01/30/mariage-pour-tous-comment-devraient-voter-les-deputes_1824115_3224.html

LOL @ Lassalle being the only "undecided". Modem staying true to its Moderate Hero creed, I guess. :P

Anyway, Borloo, Lagarde and Jégo are good surprises. But since these are basically the "leaders" of the UDI group, it's surprising that they don't bring any backbenchers with them...

Lagarde isn't a surprise, he voted for the 2011 socialist proposal.
Anyways, Lagarde is strange and isn't an usual right-winger. The fact he was easily reelected in such a left-wing constituency and the 70% in the first round he got in Drancy in 2008 (it was part of the red belt) shows it.

A summary of the right's 5,630 amendments to the text:
http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2013/01/28/mariage-gay-les-pires-amendements-deposes-opposition_n_2567744.html#quiz_6059

Besides the trollin'-n'-strawmannin' fascist who proposes to legalize pedophilia, incest and polygamy; highlights include: xenophobia (the current bill would allow bi-national couples to marry even if one of their native countries does not recognize SSM), weird religious sh**t from Thierry Benoit, some weird sh**t about how children should always live with their biological parents (a thinly-veiled attack on adoption and adoptive parents in general) and banning adoptions in general by singles.

The right sinks lower and lower every day.

See, this is why you can safely stick with the left no matter how incompetent they might be.

The vote on the article opening to gay marriage

For:
235 PS
3 UMP ( François de Mazières, Michel Piron et Franck Riester)
8 Greens
1  radical, républicain, démocrate et progressiste
2 from Gauche démocrate et républicaine

UMP's Claudine Schmid and Michel Sordi abstained.

Against: 94 UMP, 2 UDI, PCF's Patrice Carvalho

However, Mazieres and Piron made known they got it wrong and wanted to vote against.

I thought Greens would have showed more enthusiasm.

It's obvious not all depuites were there, so it's just they lacked a few of their own. I'm a bit appalled by the PCF one voting against, though unfortunately not completely surprised...

And it's also a bit scary, but also not very surprising, to see most overseas left-wing deputies voting against.

Looks like UMP deputies didn't even bother turning out. LOL.

Out of curiosity, why is it not surprising that a commie would vote against SSM?

Well, even if they have been recycling their front-benchers a bit with new more modern specimens, there are still a good bulk of the PCF that is composed of 60+ people with sometimes not so progressive views on societal issues... One of their deputies, André Gerin, even ended up being quite the racist, before getting expelled from the parliament group and not reelected in 2012.

Well, it certainly is rather surprising, but I guess a possible explanation would be that their working-class supporters aren't nuts about it.  Plus, it's not like communist regimes are known for their gay-friendliness.

Was Gérin racist? I remember him not being a fan of burqas and all, but I wouldn't say that makes him racist.

Weeeell, he was borderline.

Pretty awful, yeah... but not quite racist.

You realize there is indeed racism behind this but he still managed to varnish it with a populist-like rhetoric. A number of old communists in the PCF are indeed racists. They were for French Algeria, they were for sending troops to beat up New Caledonia, and so on. I'm just glad they succeed in getting younger more modern ones up front now : Laurent, Dartigolles, Brossat, etc. who are a lot more societally frequentable.

Communist parties in North America are so small and tiny and many of them have adopted New Left-type causes such as gay marriage/feminism/radical environmentalism and so forth, leading to the view (in the US and Canada) that communism is a very, very socially liberal ideology which always strongly embraces stuff like gay marriage. In countries like France where the communist party hasn't always met in a phone booth, there is still a significant share of old-timers/orthodox communists who are very much Old Left/Soviet Union in their ideology and ways which makes them rather socially conservative (and the traditional PCF electorate is far from being socially liberal). I know that Alain Bocquet, an other fairly orthodox dude, also had some second thoughts about gay marriage.

correction: André Gerin was not defeated, he retired in 2012 and the FG did not hold the seat (and wasn't really expected to anyway).

Certain PCF-controlled municipalities were notorious for their harassment of minorities in the 1980s.

Georges Marchais also race-baited in the 1981 election. Incompetently, but then 'Georges Marchais'. You also need to consider attitudes towards linguistic minorities/minority languages. All of these things link up.

Speaking of Marxism:

French Communists Abandon Hammer and Sickle (http://rendezvous.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/08/french-communists-abandon-hammer-and-sickle/)

By HARVEY MORRIS

LONDON — The Communist Party of France has sparked a revolution among the comrades by removing the hammer and sickle from their membership cards.

The iconic symbol of the international proletariat has been replaced with the star of the multi-party European Left alliance, much to the horror of traditionalists at the party’s 36th congress that opened near Paris on Thursday.

What was billed by the party leadership as a forward-looking move was denounced by others as revisionist backsliding and part of a conspiracy to abandon the movement to the embrace of social democracy.

Emmanuel Dang Tran, secretary of the party’s Paris section, told France Info radio that members were shocked at the abandoning of “what represents, for the working class of this country, a historic element in resistance against the politics of capitalism.”

Yeah, French media are all out on this. Actually, it's been numerous years since most of the Party's federations were not using the hammer and sickle on any of their activist material.  And Emmanuel Dang Tran is only secretary of one of Paris' 20 sections, one of the most reactionary ones.

But I find it a pity. The hammer and sickle is an international recognition symbol, plus a historical landmark. Oh well, no big deal.

The Swastika was ancient symbol widely used before WW2, but that doesn't really matter anymore.

How many workers today use hammers or sickles, especially in a country like France?

Face it Seatown, the laptop and photocopier just don't have the same pizazz as the hammer and sickle.

I doubt that many PCF members have ever encountered a laptop or would know how to use one...

A laptop and a photocopier? We are talking of the PCF here, so no office workers.
An assembly line would be more apt.

More like a queue inside a post officer, or wherever it is that French pensioners go...

France’s National Assembly Votes in Favor of Gay Marriage

France’s National Assembly voted in favor of legalizing gay marriage, after weeks of debates and demonstrations both against and for the proposed law.

The lower house of the French parliament voted the bill in 329 versus 229, with a debate on the issue in the upper house, or Senate, slated to start from April 2. Agence France-Presse reported.

The bill, which sailed through the National Assembly owing to the large majority held by President Francois Hollande’s Socialist Party and its allies, marks the first major social plan he has pushed through since his election in May and would fulfill a campaign promise.

It mirrors the passage this month in the House of Commons of a bill to legalize gay marriage in England and Wales, bringing them into line with countries such as Spain and South Africa.

The French bill -- known by its slogan “marriage for all” -- gives same-sex partnerships equal status with heterosexual unions and allows gays to adopt children.

The bill divided France, a predominantly Catholic country. Opinion polls show that a majority of French voters favor giving same-sex couples the right to marry, though they oppose giving such couples rights to adoption or medically-assisted procreation.

Pollster BVA found that 58 percent of voters favor gay marriage, while 53 percent oppose adoption for gay couples, according to a survey published last month. CSA, another polling company, found that 52 percent favor gay marriage and the same proportion oppose adoption by same-sex couples.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-12/france-s-national-assembly-votes-in-favor-of-gay-marriage.html

Analysis of the vote:

568 votes
In favour: 329
Against: 229
Abstentions: 10

SRC 283 vs 4 vs 5
votes against: Bernadette Laclais (Savoie), Jérôme Lambert (Charente), Patrick Lebreton (Réunion), Gabrielle Louis-Carabin (Guadeloupe)
abstentions: Ibrahim Aboubacar (Mayotte), Marie-Françoise Bechtel (Aisne), Jean-Luc Laurent (Val-de-Marne), Jean-Philippe Mallé (Yvelines), Dominique Potier (Meurthe-et-Moselle)

Note: Laclais and Lambert opposed gay adoption and had openly criticized the law. Lambert, one of Mitterrand's nephews, announced he would vote no a while ago. Gabrielle Louis-Carabin is ex-UMP. Bechtel and Laurent are members of the MRC. Mallé opposed everything, probably didn't vote against because of party loyalty.
Jalton (Guadeloupe), Vainqueur-Christophe (Guadeloupe) were absent - 7 others were also absent apparently. All other SRC members from Martinique, Réunion, Guyane, Mayotte voted in favour.

UMP 187 vs 2 vs 5
votes in favour: Benoist Apparu (Marne), Franck Riester (Seine-et-Marne). Dominique Tian (Bouches-du-Rhône) is recorded as being in favour, but he corrected the official record saying he wanted to vote against.
abstentions: Nicole Ameline (Calvados), Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet (Essonne), Pierre Lellouche (Paris), Bruno Le Maire (Eure), Édouard Philippe (Seine-Maritime)

Note: Riester is a loyal Copéiste but he's also openly gay. Apparu, Ameline, NKM, Lellouche and Le Maire have reputations as social liberals within the party.

UDI 24 vs 5
votes in favour: Philippe Gomès (New Caledonia), Yves Jégo (Seine-et-Marne), Sonia Lagarde (New Caledonia), Jean-Christophe Lagarde (Seine-Saint-Denis). Jean-Louis Borloo (Nord) is recorded as being against, but he corrected the official record saying he wanted to vote in favour.

Note: Jégo is a close ally of Borloo and is socially liberal as well. Gomès and Lagarde are members of Calédonie ensemble, a local centrist party in New Caledonia. Jean-Christophe Lagarde is also not surprising, he's always been to the left of the old NC.

Ecolo 17

RRDP 13 vs 2
votes against: Ary Chalus (Guadeloupe), Thierry Robert (Réunion)

GDR 9 vs 4
votes against: Bruno Nestor Azérot (Martinique), Patrice Carvalho (Oise), Alfred Marie-Jeanne (Martinique), Jean-Philippe Nilor (Martinique)

NI 7
all against, including Jean Lassalle (MoDem)

Good.

Why does it take so long before going to the Senate, though?

If I understand well, things have to pass into a Senate committee, which needs to write a report on it. The original plan was to make that in mid-March, but government decided to leave more time for preparing the report and to put the banking law in the mid-March slot.

"Cumul" reform delayed indefinitely... This government is officially a joke.

Great news! Sarkozy 2017.

I don't know why you have such a crush on Sarkozy. He's not really your kind of rightist.

Shocked. I certainly never expected a party of power-hungry career politicians would do that.

It's not like if the other party would do anything else, on that question.

In today's edition of Pollsters are Morons, we have CSA (obviously) releasing a national poll for local elections (with a sample of 1000).

()

Yeah, there's really no point in these kinds of stuff.

Well, it serves the purpose of generic party support polling sort of, which is kinda nice.

Fwiw, comparison btw the 1st round of the legislatives in 2012 and these numbers, rounded to the nearest half-percent:

PS, PRG, DVG -7.5%
EELV +.5%
Total Presidential Majority: -7%
FdG +2%
Total Gauche Parliamentaire: -5%

Far-left +1%

MoDem +2%

UMP, NC, DVD +3.5%

FN -1.5%

I don't think these numbers are all that meaningful, tho.

LOL :D

Probably doesn't mean much, simply people who might like the MoDem "branch" but would probably never vote for the actual candidate the MoDem could put up (ie a total nobody).

I guess I should put this here: anybody interested in me beginning to write up some complete guide (like the incomplete one I attempted before the legislatives in June) for the municipal elections next year, covering all major cities and other issues of local government in France? I figure if I get an early start, I might put together something which isn't horrible.

Absolutely! :) Though I think you should start a new thread in the International Elections board.

Please do it. I'd love to know more about the major cities and local government in Paris

Hollande's approval rating drops below Marine Le Pen's:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/17/us-france-poll-idUSBRE92G0F720130317

The bigger question for me is of the kind've country where the leader of the racist right has an approval rating in the 30s.

Until the "New Jews"-saying, HC Strache (FPÖ) also had approvals in the 30s.

Now more like mid-20s.

I believe a wise man once said, "Sarkozy will be re-elected."

He just never specified when.

With the new PS primary system from 2012, will Hollande have to be renominated by said system?

Face it, she's been great at downplaying the whole racist aspect and has never had the appearance of a senile old Holocaust denying fart like Daddy had. Besides, she's a very good (by that I mean skilled + good at what she does; rather than subjectively good) politician.


The new PS statutes have entrenched the idea of the 'primaire citoyenne' (open primary) like in 2011.

Reiterating my offer for a guide about the 2014 municipal elections, unless people prefer to panic about Panzergirl's latest poll rating.

Count me as a vote for Muni '14. As for MLP's poll ratings, the election is only 4 years away. LOL @ Flamby having a 2-1 disapproval in 10 months though.

I think the UK government could match that.

Also interested in a municipal 2014 write up.

I'm interested in the municipal election guide as well.

What ever happened with that Cope-Fillion thing? Did that ever come to a conclusion?

The UMP will hold a new congress sometime this fall. In the meanwhile, both sides have come to an uneasy truce/ceasefire/compromise at the end of December 2012, the solution was to create a huge leadership which 'doubles up' every position in the party leadership with a copeiste and filloniste in each spot. Jeff is president, but you have two top VPs (Chatel + Wauquiez), 18 delegate VPs (each position with a filloniste and copeiste); 2 top SGs (Tabarot + Pecresse), 12 delegate SGs (each position with a filloniste and copeiste). And because it's the UMP, it's basically a sausage fest: Rachida Dati is the only female VP out of 20...

They should also review the statutes to fix some issues and make it tougher for elections to be rigged. In return, the RUMP dissolved. They all hate each other's guts, but they all understand that sh**tting on one another in public before the local elections is hardly productive.

Le Pen getting further attention as FN battles with French Soccer star Karim Benzema as he comments on not singing the French national anthem.

Rather, what is attracting attention in France is that the budget minister, Jérôme Cahuzac, has resigned in relation to the allegations that he had an offshore bank account in Switzerland. He still claims he's innocent.

Bernard Cazeneuve (PS), junior minister for European affairs, has replaced him. Cazeneuve is a former noniste from 2005, but he lobbied deputies for the EU budget treaty. Thierry Repentin (PS) replaces him as junior minister for European affairs but Repentin's position as junior minister for professional development and learning is not being replaced.

Good thing. It is intolerable to have our budget minister under these kinds of accusations, even if he ends up being innocent.

What Antonio said.

Sarko indicted in the Mamie Zinzin/Bettencourt affair: http://www.lemonde.fr/societe/article/2013/03/21/affaire-bettencourt-sarkozy-confronte-au-majordome_1852256_3224.html#xtor=EPR-32280229-[NL_Titresdujour]-20130322-[titres]

The right throws a fit, the FN is doing its smug face and the left is overjoyed.

The NatAss rejected the first no confidence motion of this government, proposed by the UMP. Only the UMP and most of the UDI voted in favour; all others didn't vote at all because only votes in favour count against the government.

btw, Sarko seems to have given up on life. He looks as sh**tty as the Sarcelles Pimp.

()

This is the face of France's next President.


...at least if we believe the word of Phil, the great expert in French politics. :P

http://www.estcequilvabientotentaule.com/

LOL

Two great reactions of outrage from the UMP:

Christine Boutin: Coup de tonnerre: Mise en examen @NicolasSarkozy . Est ce que cela va régler les pbs des français ? Non ! Nous devenons fous!
(is homophobic ranting and bible-bashing going to solve the country's problems? also, how is some crook getting served with an indictment a sign of going crazy?)

Lionnel Luca: Mettre en examen un ancien Pdt pour abus de faiblesse sous prétexte de financement de camp élect est grotesque et en dit long sur la justice
(I know Luca is a neofascist and a racist buffon, but how is an indictment for gross violation of campaign finance laws 'grotesque'? What is grotesque in Luca's bizarro little world?)

And JF Copé isn't even feigning faux outrage and isn't doing great at concealing his inner joy at the news:
Le seul mot qui me vienne à l’esprit quant à cette mise en examen de Nicolas Sarkozy, c’est incompréhension.

Comme vous, je trouve que le traitement qui est aujourd’hui réservé à Nicolas Sarkozy est profondément injuste.

En tant que Président de notre mouvement et ami de Nicolas Sarkozy, je veux redire que je suis à ses côtés, dans cette épreuve.

Same goes for Fillon:
Je suis stupéfait par la décision de mise en examen de Nicolas Sarkozy qui m'apparait aussi injuste qu'extravagante

J'exprime mon soutien et mon amitié à Nicolas

J'espère que la vérité triomphera au bout de cette épreuve douloureuse qui lui est injustement imposée

Fortunately the UMP isn't the PdL... ;)

Protest in Paris: Anti-Gay Marriage Activists Clash with Police

Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets of Paris on Sunday to protest a plan by the French government to legalize gay marriage and adoption. The demonstration turned violent with police using tear gas and batons.

A colorful protest turned into a street battle in Paris on Sunday after anti-gay marriage demonstrators clashed with police.

()

An estimated 300,000 people took to the streets in the French capital to protest against the "marriage for everyone" draft law, passed last month by parliament with a wide majority led by President François Hollande's Socialists and their allies. The demontrators hope to discourage the bill's approval next month by the Senate, where the Socialists also lead.

Disagreement over the bill -- a campaign promise by Hollande -- is dividing French society. While many supported the measure when Hollande was elected, rising unemployment and the president's failure to improve the economy have sparked resentment of the bill to grant same-sex couples equal marriage and adoption rights. Placards carried by protesters read: "We want a job, not gay marriage."

()

Conservative activists, families, pensioners and priests came out to try and stop the law from being passed, many of them from outside the city. But the protest took a violent turn when police blocked a few hundred demonstrators from veering onto the city's famous Champs-Elysées avenue toward the presidential palace. Demonstrators reportedly harassed officers and objects began flying through the air, prompting police to use tear gas and batons.

Participants reportedly fell to the ground, overcome by the tear gas. Prominent politician Christine Boutin, who heads the conservative Christian Democratic Party, was also reportedly injured. At least two arrests were made.

The landmark Champs-Élysées, a tourist magnet, had not been approved as a route for the protest. Interior Minister Manuel Valls said the demonstration "got out of hand" when organizers became overwhelmed by "extremist groups" taking part in the protest.

()

While police estimated that some 300,000 took part, protest organizers said that 1.4 million people were there.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/anti-gay-marriage-activists-clash-with-paris-police-a-890752.html

Obviously we all abhor police brutality, but it's nice to see them breaking some fascist skulls for once.

Ah, the Paris police...

What Lief said basically. Yeah, the French riot police is usually pretty awful, but these demonstrators are the last kind for which I'd feel sorry.

Because they believe that marriage is between a man and a woman?!?!?

It goes a bit deeper than that... but if you want a shortcut, yes.

What about a group of convicted murderers who were demonstrating for same sex marriage. Do they come close to the last kind you feel sorry for?

Ah, obvious hyperboles and people who are so eager to point them out...

It's obviously not meant to be taken literally but it highlights concern regarding your logic.

Yeah, the anti-gay marriage crowd are basically disgusting homophobes who use the most absurd and retarded 'arguments' and put on some big melodramatic show. Just look at Christine Boutin's 'OMG I'M DYING' or Henri Guaino trying to imitate de Gaulle. And when you look further into the movements behind it, you find charming company: the Catholic fundies, the neo-fascists/racists or the UMP's cohort of morons and tools. Besides, any movement whose leader's name is 'Frigide Barjot' is obviously a joke.

Unfortunate to see the gwenn ha du associated to this disgusting gang. Please don't associate our flag with your bigoted cause.

This is surely not her real name, is it? You can't get such a ridiculous name by chance (and if you do, you usually change it as soon as you can).

Of course this is not her real name. She is the member of some kind of unfunny political comedy troupe and tried to parody Brigitte Bardot in this  particularly vulgar and dumb song (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJlSTHOX4WU). His husband, "Basile de Koch", is a former speech-writer for Charles Pasqua, and his half-brother is famous pseudo-journalist "Karl Zéro", the guy who uncovered the "Allègre Affair", a fanciful story involving former Toulouse mayor Dominique Baudis, a serial killer and a transexual prostitute.

Anyways, it's quite ironic to see the Sarkozyists now denouncing the brutality of the police and complaining about the zeal of the judges.

Hash : do it. If you want somewhere to start, I'll ask you : Metz, Nancy, Valenciennes, Paris Ve, Marseille, Strasbourg, Bordeaux, Le Havre, Nîmes, Sète.

Regional breakdown of Flanby's unpopularity by BVA (35% approval nationally)

()

Flanby has also broken another symbolic threshold in his unstoppable race to the bottom: an LH2 poll places him below 30% approval, at 27%.

Bit wierd than Lower Normandy is in the TOP 6 of the best Hollande regions.

Probably has something to do with small sample sizes and large margin of errors. I didn't look at the poll in question, but I suspect these national polls with regional breakdowns will have some large MOEs in certain regions

Big TV interview yesterday for Flanby in which he confirmed that he's utterly useless and incompetent, and that he will basically continue Sarko's policies.

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2013/03/29/retraites-cumul-pma-hollande-s-eloigne-du-programme-socialiste_3150260_823448.html

Guy Mollet 2.0

Why am I not surprised? Elect a hapless fonctionnaire...

Don't blame me, I supported Aubry. :P

(though, of course, I voted for Hollande and I would do it again if the alternative was Sarkozy... but probably not by the 1st round)

Yes, Flanby is probably still better than Sarkozy. To begin with, Sarkozy is an abrasive and dishonest dickhead while I still get the feeling that Flanby is personally decent and honest (even if also an imbecile); although I have no doubt that by 2017 this government will be just as absurdly corrupt as all the other ones. Also, Flanby's gang don't hate gays, browns and Muslims.

Don't blame me, I never considered voting for Flanby in the first round :P

Cahuzac's secret Swiss bank account isn't so secret now.

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2013/04/02/jerome-cahuzac-entendu-par-les-juges-d-instruction_3152138_823448.html

"Le changement, c'est maintenant"

Watching this government is a bit like watching a trainwreck, except a very very very predictable one. And they even manage to get better and better at wrecking the train while it's wrecking.

With the UMP's leadership issues, broad avenue to Marine Le Pen...

Piece of sh*t.

So that minister was tax dodging all along? What a f'ing scumbag. Hollande should just jail him for decades in retaliation.

I certainly hope he goes to jail for a long while. However, considering the French judiciary's legendary leniency toward politicians, he'll probably get some joke sentence.

I reckon the only way Hollande can salvage something from this is by appearing determined to see him banged up for a long time.

Well, ideally, the President should not interfere with the course of a judicial affair (of course, every President has actually done it, but Hollande at least doesn't want to make it blatant).

What makes his case even more hilarious is that he was the minister in charge of fighting tax evasion.

I have a hard time believing that nobody in the PS or the government knew what was his deal before the sh**t hit the fan.

According to the article he had the account for 20 years. Yet somehow background checks either didn't catch it or swept it under the rug.

Well, these are criminal charges we're talking about, so it's pretty obvious he did his best to hide all that sh*t.

What background checks ? You either are the President's buddy and you enter the Government, or are not and stay out. Simple as that.

Oh and it goes on :


And I can tell you when they speak about extremist parties, they're not speaking about the Left Front.

Hollande should resign now and give the Presidency to Marine Le Pen altogether. That way she could at least make some bullsh**t before 2017 and get beaten... (not saying this seriously, just, you know, out of profound and utter lassitude and resignation...)

When was the last voting intention poll released?

There are basically none of these in between electoral campaigns (which, granted, are almost every year, but the non-Presidential ones last only 2 to 3 months). Especially, there is no "general election tracker" that would generically poll a supposed Presidential election all the way during the 5-year term. That's something that we election maniacs would appreciate, but frankly that would be weird to have here...

And when they do poll, they poll like sh**t. For example, they polled nationally around three weeks ago for a municipal election next year of all things...

This gave the following :
Far-left 2 %    
Left Front 9 %    
Greens 6 %    
PS 27 %    
Modem 4 %    
UMP 38 %    
FN 12 %    
Others 2 %

Remember people are supposed to say for which mayoral candidate they would vote. Obviously FN, having close to no incumbent, loses a lot in a poll like this. But differences would be huge, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them win a record number of municipalities next year, in Pas-de-Calais, Moselle, Vaucluse or Gard.

Yeah, that municipal poll isn't very helpful. From a British perspective it's quite strange that there are no polls mid-term.

Apparently Cahuzac's bank account has been opened by a far-rightist fiscal lawyer who now is close to Marine Le Pen. Hopefully this will mean she won't benefit too much from this... :P

It's one of her closest advisers.
She defended herself by saying than it happened while she was at the law faculty and than opening an account in a foreign country isn't illegal, it's not declaring the money in it which is. She is quite right on that one, the law faculty was useful for her.

On a lighter note: the top 10 funniest cabinet portfolios in French history

http://www.topito.com/top-ministere-nom-etrange

Minister of Free Time is by far the most ridiculous thing they've ever come up with.

The "redressement productif" bullsh*t should be on that list too.

Not as bad as the UK's late, great Department for National Heritage.

Do someone want me to translate this or you're fine with Google ?

The latest buzz is about a bunch of people, from the UMP to the PS, wanting to hold a referendum on the "moralization" of politics which would include stuff like limiting dual office holding, transparency on politicians' wealth, cracking down on lobbies and big business in politics and other stuff (including, maybe, voting rights for foreigners). So basically, asking voters if they agree with the idea that politicians shouldn't be crooks and douchebags.

Are politicians really that fucking retarded now? Yeah, let's organize a referendum on vague fluffy sh**t which basically every single voter agrees with; that'll show them that we're not corrupt crooks! Never mind that only 6 people in the whole country would give a sh**t and bother turning out to vote.

I'll do just that, but tomorrow. ;)

Most of the people I speak with regarding the Cahuzac affair are really resigned about it. I get much "tous pourris" feeling (all rotten), but not something that can be mustered by either the FN or FG. It's more like "they're all the same, but they have really always been, and we've known, and we've done nothing to prevent it in the past, and will continue so."

Quite depressing actually.

Hollande drops to a new low:

26-70 disapprove


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-08/hollande-rating-tumbles-in-poll-after-minister-quits-on-tax-row.html

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

#epicfail

Well, the good news is than he can't really go lower and than there is no elections in 2013.

Wonder if he didn't made all the bad decisions he had to take this year, in order to be more free to pass better policies in election years?

My thought last year was that he'd Zapatero himself: squeezed between his base and Merkel/bond markets, satisfying no one. Still has 4 years to turn it around, granted.

Question to the Frenchmen here: how closely linked are the municipal and regional elections to national politics? If Hollande's still highly unpopular, will the PS get locally massacred?

Yes. French people don't give a sh*t about their local government, and they'll vote almost exclusively based on national factors (TBF, local factors do matter somewhat at the municipal level, but absolutely nothing at the regional and cantonal levels). The PS won landslides in 2004, 2008 and 2010 riding on the government's unpopularity, and the right will probably do the same in 2014.

Two other certainties: turnout will be abysmal, and the FN will do well.

Errr, not so quick Tony. French people tend to vote quite locally in the municipal election on the contrary. And it's not even sure that regional and departmental levels will have a vote in 2014 at this point. Actually, the municipal election of 2014 could well be the best thing that could happen to the PS : they will lose a few middle-sized cities based on national swing, but they're quite strong in the cities so they really won't lose that much. Of course they will lose loads of small cities (like 50,000 inhabs and lower), but that won't matter in the least, because that's not what media coverage will be about.

Media coverage will be, as it always is with municipal elections, and because, frankly, the French media and commentators don't know sh**t about elections (they really really really suck monumentally at these), about who wins in the 5 or 10 largest cities, very few of which are swing ones.

Among the 10 largest cities, the right cannot hope for Paris and Lyon, whereas the PS can realistically hope for Marseille. The right has a bit of hope about Toulouse (unlikely) and Strasbourg (a bit more likely), but this will be eclipsed by the loss of Marseille. The left in return could hope for Bordeaux, but only if Juppé stays out, but he seems like he wants to run so he should keep it.

After that, in the 20 largest cities, there are really not so much targets for the right, maybe Reims or Saint-Étienne, or Metz a bit further, but that's all.

So basically, the 2014 election will be about who wins Marseille : the PS and it's like "the left pulls this out in a difficult context", or the right and it's "sanction vote against an impopular government".

That's simplified though.

Some nutjob UMP Paris municipal councillor proposes the creation of a "rue Margaret Thatcher" (street)... In Paris... Seriously.

Oh and about Bordeaux, a poll has just been released :
Juppé would win 54-55% in the first round, being automatically elected, whether the left is united (38%), or dispersed (PS 26%, EELV 8%, FG 6%).

So Bordeaux stays to the right.

She would've despised such a suggestion... so DO IT.

http://www.metrofrance.com/info/sondage-municipales-2014-pas-de-vague-bleue-a-l-horizon/mmcg!PBC9OeBKYebE/

I'm not sure that it will be a UMP year because of the far-right. For instance I think that the left could win Marseille!

Yeah, because national polling for a municipal election is really the best way to predict this.

Oh God... Please kick him out of this country.

We all know how it ended when Chirac tried to play Thatcher Wannabe in 1986... ;)

Well, in France the term would be "Anglo-Saxon ultraliberalism", n'est ce pas? ;)

Something of this flavor, yes.

In fallout from Mr. Swiss Bank Account, all cabinet ministers have published their assets:

http://www.declarations-patrimoine.gouvernement.fr/

Topito gives us the top 11 funniest things on those: http://www.topito.com/top-scandales-publication-patrimoine-ministres

Including: Ayrault has the same car as Scoobydoo, Fabius is obviously filthy rich but owes some cash to HSBC, Peillon is probably getting swindled on his house renovations.

Cahuzac has resigned as an MNA. By-election incoming soon, I guess.

Wait, won't he be replaced by his "suppléant"?

Deputies are replaced by their suppléant if they die in office, if they enter cabinet, joins the ConCon (or becomes Défenseur des droits) or has a governmental 'mission' (http://www.politiquemania.com/parlementaires-mission-temporaire.html) (usually some political bullsh**t) lasting over 6 months.

Since the 2008 constitutional reform, a cabinet minister who leaves cabinet no longer needs to go through a by-election if he wants to reclaim his seat as deputy - he/she automatically regains it from the suppléant. In this case, Cahuzac (like Boutin when she left cabinet) chose not to reclaim his seat, so he resigned and there will be a by-election within 3 months.

Well, he's from the Lot, so I assume his seat is safe, right?

Oh sh*t, it's Lot-et-Garronne.... So right-wing pickup likely.

Rightwingers make me sick with this scandal. Under Sarkozy, there were much more scandals. They should validate Sarkozy budget campaign's before speaking.

God, the UMP is even more disgusting and repulsive - trying to use the Boston tragedies to play political games and filibuster gay marriage.

http://www.lemonde.fr/ameriques/article/2013/04/16/attentats-de-boston-wauquiez-veut-reporter-le-debat-sur-le-mariage-gay_3160525_3222.html

Guys, my friend's cat is sick these days. Let's just cancel gay marriage and care for the cat ok?

Yeah I don't know. Granted, Lot-et-Garonne has been consistently quite swingy the last decades, but the PS in the 3rd constituency's runoffs has gone from 48% in 2002 (which was not so bad in that context), to 52% in 2007, to a large 61% in 2012. It polled 47% in the first round last year. So it seems to have conquered quite a voting base, and I'm not sure it will shrink enough to not win this one.

Plus, in 2012 UMP was at 27% and FN at 16%. In Lot-et-Garonne and with Copé-Fillon sh**t, you can expect this gap to shrink...

In the event that FN tops UMP, PS wins it, but not so easily. I'd say a 54-46.

In the event we have a classic PS-UMP runoff, say with PS polling 32%, EELV 3% (2 in 2012) and FG 8% (4.5% in 2012), I can see a UMP victory, but not so sure. Still, FN voters in Lot-et-Garonne are more likely to transfer to UMP in the secound round than say, in Moselle or Nord, so I guess UMP wins it 52-48.

But we cannot rule out the possibility that there has been sociological changes around Villeneuve-sur-Lot in the past 10 years that make the constituency lean clearly left nowadays, and so the PS could as well retain a good 36-40 in the first round, with a few reserves for the runoff, and end keeping it 53-47.

Haaash ? You hadn't covered Lot-et-Garonne last year, so I had to completely improvise that one. Am I right ? :D

I used this btw : http://www.atlaspol.com/AQ/lot-et-garonne.htm
Quite useful sometimes.

Yeah, looking at past results it seems like a left-leaning swing seat. However, if we judge by previous by-election results, I could easily see the right winning there.

Some polls: in a hypothetical rematch Sarko leads the first round with 30% and Flamby tied with Le Pen at 22. Another poll has him beating Flamby 53-47 in the runoff with a 27-23-21 first round. Then there's stuff on Panzergirl.

http://www.rfi.fr/france/20130418-sondage-marine-le-pen-ex-aequo-hollande-premier-tour-sarkozy-devant

http://www.harrisinteractive.fr/news/2013/Results_HIFR_LCP_15042013.pdf

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2013/04/18/01002-20130418ARTFIG00649-hollande-la-deception-un-an-apres.php

Of course.

Anyway, if I heard correctly final vote on the gay marriage bill will be on Tuesday.

Better than I'd expect actually for Hollande. Actually shocked MLP's that low.

Also, as if it's already been a year since the présidentielle. :o

Poison Dwarf latest: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/19/french-inquiry-gaddafi-sarkozy-2007-campaign

ROFL

The Gaddafi thing was first reported last year or the year before IIRC, but good that they're getting to the bottom of it. Didn't Libya have Rafales on order shortly before the war began?

If anybody cares, here are the details of the presidential re-run polls:

Ifop, change to October 2012 poll
Poison Dwarf (UMP) 30% (+0.5%)
Flanby (PS) 22% (-6%)
Panzergirl (FN) 22% (+2.5%)
Mélenchon (FG) 11% (+1%)
Bayrou (MoDem) 10% (+3%)
NDA (DLR) 2% (nc)
Joly (EELV) 1.5% (-0.5%)
Poutou (NPA) 1% (-0.5%)
Arthaud (LO) 0.5% (nc)

http://ifop.fr/media/poll/2222-1-study_file.pdf

OpinionWay
Poison Dwarf (UMP) 28%
Flanby (PS) 23%
Panzergirl (FN) 21%
Mélenchon (FG) 11%
Bayrou (MoDem) 11%
Joly (EELV) 3%
NDA (DLR) 2%
Poutou (NPA) 0.5%
Arthaud (LO) 0.5%

Poison Dwarf (UMP) 53%
Flanby (PS) 47%

http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/OpinionwayHollandeunan.pdf

In other news, Flanby has hit a new record low in the Ifop tracker: 74% dissatisfied, 25% satisfied (-6). This is apparently a record low for any President, at any time, in Ifop's trackers. Though this is not (yet) an historic record low for all trackers, however: Sofres had Chirac at 19% approvals at one point in 2006. 25% is the lowest Flanby has been in any poll.

Failure is a failure.

PS insulting Merkel in a policy paper, calling her "selfish" and the "chancellor of austerity", saying the EU is now an Anglo-German cabal (Anglo-German ultraliberalism?), etc. LOL Flanby.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/26/france-socialist-party-german-chancellor

Well, they are right about Merkel, but the Anglo-German plot is ridiculous.

Well that makes me like PS a bit more. Just a bit.

Haven't heard about the story firsthand, but I feel like the Guardian's presentation of it is a bit excessive and unfair. Quoting from the text directly:


With a few nuances, I'd fully agree with that.

More of the same bullsh**t from the PS. They've always said the opposite of what they've actually done in practice, since 1945 at least.

()

That's the classic example, of course. And it should be brought up every now and again to remind people.

What? Maybe it's just the British media, but haven't the French been far more lovey-dovey than David Cameron has been to Merkel?

Mr. Swiss Bank Accounts (Cahuzac) is thinking about running in the by-election in his old seat.

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2013/05/07/le-ps-designe-son-candidat-dans-le-lot-et-garonne-pour-succeder-a-cahuzac_3172081_823448.html

"Aucune décision prise. Certains parlent pour moi sans mandat pour cela. Et je constate une forme d'attente ou d'espérance chez certains". This guy is really the epitome of arrogance and the stereotype of the slimy politician who should be run over by a truck.

As an independent? Such chutzpah though.

That, and what Hash said.

What a pathetic excuse of a human being.

The narcissism and delusion sound much worse in French. I can easily imagine the tone.

More bad polling news for Flanby.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2013/05/12/01002-20130512ARTFIG00133-pour-73-des-francais-le-changement-se-fait-toujours-attendre.php

Recession: GDP contracted by 0.2%.

It's not a surprise... A bad period for Hollande...

Yeah, no surprise here.

Though it's ridiculous how French governments, left and right, keep making outlandish growth predictions. They expected over 1%... ::)

ConCon validates the entire gay marriage law:
http://www.francetvinfo.fr/le-conseil-constitutionnel-valide-le-mariage-pour-tous_326516.html#xtor=EPR-51-%5Balerteinfo%5D-20130517-%5Bbouton%5D-%5Bfacebook

Great news! I hope "le conseil constitutionnel" will invalidate Sarkozy's campaign!

That answers the question some here were wondering. Not on right, then.

There's a linguistic battle going on in the universities, specifically allowing more English courses for foreign student purposes.  (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/english-language-proposal-has-french-up-in-arms/2013/05/18/7db2faf2-be21-11e2-9b09-1638acc3942e_story.html)

...and now Hollande signed it into law! :D

()

An elderly anti-gay activist appears to have shot himself in the head at Notre Dame. His last blog entry seemed to hold out hope that the 'Islamists' would repeal the law when they were 'in power.'

Oh my.

It's difficult to understand someone becoming so desperate over an issue that barely effects his life.

Ultramontane Catholic militants (the bulk of elderly anti-gay 'activists') in France are a really tiny minority but they're really an insane group of nutcases and weirdos. It's always great when some journalists go out and interview them about the random nonsense they're sprouting or mocking their style. You wouldn't imagine the kind of sh**t they say (even in front of cameras), it's even more insane than the sh**t FN members say. These ultramontane Catholics always look, act and talk as if they've been living under a rock since 1750 or something.

Yeah, he comes across as a nutjob on everything. Hated the gays, the Muslims, the Jews, the Protestants, the non-whites, the non-French (but loved Hitler), Charles de Gaulle... etc.

Was the man in question one of those Catholics (I could easily believe it if it weren't for the 'sinful' suicide)?

I was wrong, this guy wasn't one of those ultramontane Catholics from the 1750s but actually a far-right (fascist variety) ideologue who was apparently a pretty famous name in fascist/far-right circles for his work in the past. He is a former OAS, and he apparently was into the idea of "political sacrifice" (suicide). He seems to have been a 'nationalist revolutionary', the faction of the French far-right closer to actual neo-fascism with a knack for weird sh**t (neo-Paganism etc) but also the usual stuff (French Algeria, hating the browns). These guys were never dominant in the FN; they were dominant in organizations like Ordre nouveau, GUD or GRECE and split from the FN in 1973 to form the PFN.

ETA: Panzergirl tweeted her sympathies with the dude and said that his last 'highly political gesture' was trying to 'awaken' the people of France. Good to know that she still sympathizes with neo-fascist lunatics despite the bullsh**t appearances. But it is kind of weird for her to express so much support, despite being full of sh**t when it comes to the "de-diabolisation" BS, Panzergirl has never really cared much (or gotten along particularly well) with the more fascistic groupings of the far-right (that's more Gollnisch's bunch, or with the various anti-Panzergirl clownish dissidents like Carl Lang). I'm not sure why she expressed sympathies and support for this random lunatic, when she should know better than associating with the cranks.

ROFL

?

It's nice to know that he was prepared to make the occasional deserving exception.

Big anti-gay marriage demos in Paris. A lot of the family value crowd is bringing their kids despite being urged not to by the government. Massive police presence.

Any of you watching?

Is the French government expecting a problem?

Why would I have any interest in watching a bunch of neo-fascists and bigoted homophobes stage some utterly retarded and reactionary bitchfest?

Besides, nobody in France actually cares about them anymore and almost everybody finds the whole thing to be silly at best, retarded and reactionary at worst. Some people will really need to move on and find new scapegoats for their bigotry. After all, they'll always have Muslims and browns to pick on.

Attention whoring: on my way from the airport to home, I was stuck in the traffic jam caused by these f**king demonstrations. Just when I though I couldn't despise these reactionary dickheads more...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/frigide-barjot-the-french-antigay-marriage-leader-under-attack-8631618.html

Reaping what she has sown.

If the homophobes and the fascists decides to kill each others, I certainly won't try to put myself between them.

I'm probably in the minority here, but I find unvarnished bloodlust a bit more disturbing than opposition to same-sex marriage.

So, who has the bloodlust?

It did turn ugly in the end - as expected. Running battles with riot police, beating up TV crews etc.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/huge-gay-marriage-protest-turns-violent-in-paris-8632878.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/huge-gay-marriage-protest-turns-violent-in-paris-8632878.html)

Was the negative reaction this strong in Spain too? It doesn't quite read like it was (http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/19/international/europe/19spain.html).

I don't know much beyond the basics but, based on the polls and shifting attitudes over time, I had assumed it would be even less of an issue in France.

I certainly agree:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/09/gay-man-french-homophobia-facebook
http://www.aljazeera.com/video/europe/2013/04/2013411235537971668.html

Christine Boutin finally proves (again) that she's a bigot and vicious homophobe: http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2013/05/27/christine-boutin-et-son-nouveau-derapage-anti-gay-dans-les-grandes-gueules-de-rmc_n_3342252.html

"We are invaded by gays"

After her bible in the Assembly. She's really crazy...

The online UMP primary for mayor of Paris, with NKM and 3 others, opened today. Metronews.fr revealed that their super-safe high-tech system was a load of sh**t, given that one person voted four times under four different names without too much of a hassle. Seems like the UMP no longer tries to hide that it supports vote rigging.

http://www.metronews.fr/paris/municipales-a-paris-comment-metronews-a-fraude-a-la-primaire-de-l-ump/mmeD!jk3goaowk8DkQ/

LOL.

The UMP's obligatory bitchfest has started even earlier: Bournazel (some young idiot who is apparently a major candidate) is calling for the vote cancelled. Lo and behold, the master election-rigger (Jeff) is calling for 'moderation' and calm. I guess this means "let the vote rigging go on guys, stop whining" in Copespeak.

Panzergirl has lost her EP immunity. (http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2013/06/01/marine-le-pen-pourrait-perdre-son-immunite-parlementaire-europeenne_3422369_823448.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter)

The UMP primary in Paris is over and:

NKM (deputy of the Essonne, former mayor of Longjumeau, moderate, 'green', anti-FN; abstained on gay marriage) 58.16%
Jean-François Legaret (mayor 1st arrdt, pro-Tiberi dissident in 2001, filloniste, conservative) 20.4%
Pierre-Yves Bournazel (young municipal councillor, copéiste, supported by Guillaume Peltier and some of the Droite forte, the right-wing faction of the UMP, but he's moderate on some issues and allegedly backed gay marriage in 2010) 10.75%
Franck Margain (regional councillor, member of Christine Boutin's microparty, PCD, anti-gay marriage) 10.34%

Well, the favorite won at last. Don't know how the media will spin it though: "easy NKM victory", or "disappointing score"? At least she avoided the catastrophe of a second round...

What are her chances in the general?

Slight. Not nonexistent (there is still the possibility of a massive protest-vote-induced right-wing landslide), but it's going to be really hard for the right to ever win back in a city like Paris. It's trending left really fast.

Guess demographics have changed since Chirac was mayor, but I'm certainly not surprised at Paris trending left.

This is actually a good result for her, although I don't think there was any polling. Nobody really cared or noticed to begin with, but some in the media had their usual jizzing over Bournazel, the latest incarnation of the "young rising star" which the media loves sooooo much (see also: 'la Droite forte' media circus/scam).

Le Monde (which is, don't get me wrong, usually a good newspaper with good articles) had some terrible article about Bournazel calling him the "espoir gaullo-bobo" because he's young, good looking, not really batsh**t insane and young. Did we mention that he's young? No? Yeah, he's young, guys. He ended up with 11%, barely more than the random Boutin dude.

I guess I could write something on why Paris has trended left if somebody wanted, but I don't really feel like it.

Which makes me wonder how Le Monde sees someone who lost an AssNat run by 40 points as a "rising star."

Sure. I also believe on her personal marketing. Don't you? What more will she abstain, climate changing denial? Expulsion of immigrants?

Thank God, the French right is not (yet?) into this crap.

Don't understimate her chances. She can win... Paris is trending left but if Hollande stays really unpopular next year...

There was a far more interesting mayoral primary in Lyon for the UMP as well, which I forgot about.

In the first round:
Michel Havard (deputy 2007-2012, leader of the opposition, filloniste, moderate) 40.34%
Georges Fenech (deputy, copéiste, Droite pop, tough-on-crime guy, big profile on fighting religious sects/Scientology) 35%
Emmanuel Hamelin (deputy 2002-2007, moderate Sarkozyst) 14.37%
Nora Berra (MEP, former secretary of state, filloniste, kind of tough-on-crime) 9.14%
Myriam Pleynard (random nobody) 1.13%

Hamelin, Berra and Pleynard have endorsed Fenech. So it will be a battle royale between filloniste vs. copéiste, centre-right vs. hard-right, Lyon establishment vs. Paris establishment...

Horrible news day:

Neo-Nazi skinhead thugs brutally murdered a SciencesPo student and antifascist activist. Words cannot express how horrible and utterly disgusting/revolting this is.
http://www.lemonde.fr/societe/article/2013/06/06/l-auteur-presume-de-l-agression-contre-clement-meric-interpelle_3425537_3224.html
http://www.lemonde.fr/societe/article/2013/06/06/clement-meric-eleve-modele-tue-pour-ses-idees_3425609_3224.html

If this government had balls, it should immediately dissolve all fascist groups and lock up all of their thugs and murderers. Or better yet, immediate drone strikes on their hideouts. The far-right is a cancer which must be eradicated; yet the morons who run France (and other countries) are more interested in deporting poor African immigrants or locking up the Roma in concentration camps.

Acceptance of homosexuality down from 83% in 2007 to 77% in 2013, the sharpest decline (-6) of all countries surveyed.
http://www.pewglobal.org/2013/06/04/the-global-divide-on-homosexuality/

I heard about it this morning.

Disheartening.

It's disgusting. And given that this is the board I moderate, the c-nt who now claims she needs protection from the far right because of her stupid little campaign deserves to live in fear for as long as it takes for her to say sorry.

Watching a BBC interview with Copé.

After having not really followed the UMP fiasco, I hadn't realised just how much you could mistake him for a FNist!

The first Socialist Prime Minister of the 5th Republic, Pierre Mauroy (1981-1984) has died.
He also was mayor of Lille for a long time.

RIP. Here's his last interview from last October. (http://nord-pas-de-calais.france3.fr/2013/06/07/pierre-mauroy-sa-derniere-interview-testament-265645.html)

RIP. Fascism is always disgusting...

Seems to me it was a gang fight that ended tragically.  From the telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/10103778/French-activist-dies-after-fight-with-skinheads.html).So some antifa (not exactly known for their peaceful ways) go into a clothing store known to be a hangout for asshats on the far right and a fight breaks out.  The skinheads offer to take it outside, the antifa agree.  A fight ensues.  During the fight this kid gets hit with a weapon and collapses onto a post, killing him.

Now, I'm not saying the skinheads are good people.  I'm not saying you shouldn't want them gone from your society.  I'm just saying that:
A.this wasn't a "brutal murder"
II.it was a gang fight that turned into a tragedy.  Sure, it was a politically motivated gang fight, it was still just a gang fight.  Gang fights usually involve two groups of people, which leads me to...
3.It seems the entire fiasco was instigated by the antifas, what with them going into enemy territory as a group and all...I'm guessing they weren't there to invite them to tea and crumpets. (yeah,  I know)


Unless the story is being grossly misrepresented in favor of the skinhead, which I'm just not seeing.

Wow, didn't expect that. RIP.

So now the weirdos disrupt the French Open. I want to see more theatrical stunts like these; they are hilarious.

Michel Havard defeated Georges Fenech 54-46 in the UMP primary in Lyon. So the more centrist and moderate option prevailed over the Droite pop/Droite fort hard right. The race will be a bit more competitive.

I should restart my guide, but in the meantime, here's a Paris poll:
Hidalgo (PS) 37% (-1)
NKM (UMP) 35% (+7)
Najdovski (EELV) 6% (-3)
Brossat (FG) 6% (-1)
de Sarnez (MoDem) 6% (-0.5)
UDI 5% (-0.5)
de Saint-Just 5% (-1)

Hidalgo (PS) 54% (-2)
NKM (UMP) 46% (+2)

Seems par for the course for the left. Which is encouraging considering the general climate. Hopefully Hidalgo will hold on.

Seems like a NKM-winning-the-nomination bump and it should go back a little.

Is "de Saint-Just" the FN list-head ? Who is it ?

Wallerand de Saint-Just, a lawyer. Lawyer of the Le Pen family, treasurer of the FN.
He comes from the Catholic ultra-right.

Ah yes with the peculiar first name I remember hearing about him.

Er, no, the antifascists were selling Fred Perry clothes (which as it turns out are pretty popular with both extremes of the political spectrum) and were harassed by skinheads, who later returned to attack them.

Interesting last name, too. Is he any relation at all?

The UMP administrations in Versailles and Saint-Cloud have banned some film poster because *gasp* two men are kissing on the poster *gasp* the children oh my god.

Le Petit journal continues to be awesome and is having a field day making fun my new moronic UMP deputy, Fredo. Apparently he asked some stupid question about "nurses in Montreal" and everybody on the UMP benches had no clue what the hell he was asking. He also said that "he liked people" and other touchy-feely stuff, I've never heard somebody who speaks solely in platitudes (complete with soft touchy-feely voice) like him.

I wasn't able to find out, but it would be quite the disgrace.

Frederic Lefebvre is just one of the biggest moron I've ever seen after Morano.  He doesn't serve anything. It's just uncommonly stupid this "députés de l'étranger"...

What's this floating round in the London Times about Ségo demanding a cabinet position/threatening a 2017 run? :P

Haven't heard of that in France. Yet again I don't have TV...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2336342/Ex-lovers-fight-presidency-France-Mother-Francois-Hollandes-children-tipped-leader.html (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2336342/Ex-lovers-fight-presidency-France-Mother-Francois-Hollandes-children-tipped-leader.html)'

Yep, it's true.  She's criticizing Hollande vaguely from the left, it would appear.  And she's got a new book out.  She lists Mitterand as a role model.  Lolz. 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/may/18/segolene-royal-back-francois-hollande-problem (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/may/18/segolene-royal-back-francois-hollande-problem)

Why is acceptance of homosexuality down 6%? That can't all be from Muslims, can it?

People being annoyed at the gay marriage debate.

"How dare those queers ask for their rights?  That's it, I don't accept their lifestyle anymore because of how angry I am!"

No, people are annoyed by all the ruckus it caused.

She's basically a troll at this point.

Segogo has been running around in circles trying to get attention and she has tried every tactic to do so (criticizing the government, supporting the government 'in tough times', covert lobbying for a job, "writing" a book). Since June, she's been desperate to land some job - they gave her some plum post as VP of some investment bank thing, but she doesn't care because she wants something better. This time, her latest gig (book + critical of the government) seems to have work, since the media has picked up on her and she's been on every imaginable TV show to say that, no, the government is doing a fine job but, no, she's not actually lobbying to join Flanby's cabinet. Of course, Segogo will never join Flanby's cabinet since Valoche would blow a fuse and it would be a massive conflict of interest. I'm sure they could find her some job as MEP or senator.

Lille's Grand Stade will be named after Mauroy.  (http://www.rtl.fr/actualites/info/article/le-grand-stade-de-lille-portera-le-nom-de-pierre-mauroy-7762519796?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter)

Sarko prepping for a comeback?  (http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2013/06/22/comment-nicolas-sarkozy-prepare-son-retour_3434789_823448.html)

He won't win office again, he can try but it won't be successful.

You sure he wouldn't in a Rematch with Hollande?

Well, surely the economy will improve before 2017.

NYT article on the bac. (http://mobile.nytimes.com/2013/06/28/world/europe/a-rite-of-passage-for-french-students-receives-a-poor-grade.html)

The bac is ridiculous, silly and stupid.

Panzergirl's being indicted on charges of inciting racial hatred after the EP lifted her immunity. (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/02/marine-le-pen-immunity-lifted)

Meh, this plays right into her narrative...

Still, the law is the law.

The minister of the environment and energy, Delphine Batho (PS) was fired from the cabinet after saying that the 2014 budget sucked because her ministry suffers a lot from the austerity cuts (-7%). A lot of PS deputies are fairly sympathetic to her and EELV seems pretty (justifiably) pissed off.

It just goes to show how this government, among other horrible decisions, is paying lip service to the environment and doesn't give two sh**ts about it. Which explains, naturally, why Flanby was so eager to fire her while nobody did anything when Montebourg insulted Ayrault in cabinet.

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2013/07/02/batho-critique-ouvertement-le-budget-de-l-ecologie-pour-2014_3440184_823448.html

She is replaced by Philippe Martin, PS deputy for the Gers.

Here's hoping she primaries Flanby in 2017.  The PS has to be saved from itself.

Yeah, pretty insane that they are firing the absolutely harmless Batho while keeping that annoying tool Montebourg.

Flanby can't really afford alienating the PS lefties anymore, given that they're pissed off enough as it is and would probably take quite badly to Montebourg's firing. On the other hand, Batho is a nobody, a former Royalist who doesn't have a power base within the party and no strong factional ties that I know of. She was the perfect scapegoat and victim for the government, which probably wanted to show that they're "tough" after the Cahuzac sh**tfest and the Montebourg scenes.

Thing about Montebourg is that he clearly sees that he's nowhere near the peak of his career and he knows it. He'd explode if he was fired.

While this may be true, his aura and star has certainly faded a whole lot since 2011. Being in government, being perceived (rightly) as a reckless asshole and handling a thankless portfolio has hurt him a lot. For him, I dare say that his political career would be better advanced by being outside government where he could act like Segolene and freely criticize the government in thinly veiled terms. He's more controllable, I think, being in cabinet.

What's he been up to since the whole nuclear energy fiasco?

Batho warned at the transfer of powers that she's gonna spill the beans on the circumstances of her firing at a press conf tomorrow afternoon.

Meanwhile, her replacement has basically confirmed that he doesn't care about the environment, saying there's more to it than a budget because he wants to "instill an environmental conviction" and cool stuff like that.

Bragging about how he was going to save all the French industries while they were closing.

Constitutional Court rejects Sarko's 2012 campaign finance report. (http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2013/07/04/le-conseil-constitutionnel-rejette-les-comptes-de-campagne-de-sarkozy-en-2012_3442620_823448.html)

Good news :D

What happens now with regards to legal penalties?

Sarko resigning immediately from the Constitutional Council. Is that a first for an ex-president?

Delphine Batho lashes out at austerity and the lack of collegiality in government, accuses the government giving in to powerful 'economic forces' and calls on the left to mobilize in favour of the environment. She's really pissed off.

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2013/07/04/delphine-batho-met-en-cause-les-lobbies-economiques_3442514_823448.html

The UMP is literally in trouble economically. This party will many millions!

Probably, but for the presidents of the Ve Republic:
Charles de Gaulle: he refuses to join the Constitutional Council
Pompidou: just impossible
Mitterrand: I'm not sure he joins, he was sick.
There are just VGE and Chirac and I know that VGE is really inactive now!
So it's not really important.


"Un ministre, ça ferme sa gueule ou ça démissionne" Chevènement

Is the resignation definitive or can he recover his seat whenever he wants?

I'm not sure if it's possible to resign...

Here's the article. (http://www.france24.com/fr/20130704-nicolas-sarkozy-demissionne-conseil-constitutionnel-comptes-campagne-presidentielle-ump?ns_campaign=editorial&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=reseaux_sociaux&ns_fee=&ns_linkname=20130704_nicolas_sarkozy_demissionne_conseil_constitutionnel_comptes&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter)

On that basis, Montebourg should have been fired/resigned months ago.

Yes, you're completely right. I hope he will be fired quickly, but it's unlikely :(.

It is possible to resign, and it is possible to retake your seat. Apparently Vincent Auriol was the first and only to do both : resigned in 1960, returned in 1962.

The penalty is no refund of electoral expenses, which is a loss of 11 millions, I think.

I'm not quite sure why all you French lefties are so enthusiastic about making President Marine that much more likely.

You don't resign from the CC: you can only "not take part in its works and meetings", because former presidents are automatically members, by law or ex officio in a way.

Giscard took part in the CC only a long, long time after 1981.

---

Well, it's of course a very bad news for the UMP.
I predict that Sarkozy will try to create another movement, which will try to federate UMP, UDI and some other small things.
So as to not be obliged to contest the UMP primaries (the new rules of the UMP aren't very good for Sarkozy...) and to prevent Fillon (and Borloo or any small centre-right politician) from being a candidate.
And so as to steal some money from these parties, without having to repay for the debts he left (because he also left debts in the party in 2007 that weren't erased in 2012...).

Sigh... when will the rightist base understand that Sarkozy will kill the right and give Hollande a second term ?

This has nothing to do with that. How can you even come to the conclusion that cancelling Sarkozy's campaign accounts will make Marine Le Pen more likely to be president ?

And also, Fab, yes of course you cannot truly resign since the seat on the Council is ex officio and ad vitam aeternam, but you can publicly state that you won't participate in its works for a time, which to my knowledge only Auriol had done before Sarko.

She'd be more likely to make the runoff, and also more likely to make the runoff against Hollande.

I'm more likely to be elected President of France than Marine Le Pen.

Nice lives up to its time-honoured tradition of racist and/or neo-fascist mayors. Today, Christian Estrosi (FNUMP) prides himself on beating up Romas, calls on mayors to revolt against them and says he will send a users' guide to beating them up.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2013/07/07/97001-20130707FILWWW00060-estrosi-dit-mater-les-roms.php

Estrol seems like quite the specimen of pond scum, to put it mildly.


In other news, Moscovici says the income tax hikes stop next year. No word on indirect taxes, fees, etc. (http://www.20minutes.fr/economie/1185343-20130707-pierre-moscovici-arret-hausses-impots-depend-etat-economie)

Estrosi is a scumbag, but probably not the worse among the little Alpes-Maritimes UMP clique. Right now it's Ciotti who appalls me the most, though that might change.

Well, Ciotti and Estrosi are basically one and the same. I'm not sure if Ciotti is still Estrosi's pawn, but that certainly used to be the case. That horrible department produces a whole bunch of repulsive FNUMP-type morons. If I had to choose, my vote for the 'worst of the 06 clique' would undoubtedly go to Lionnel Luca, who is basically a fascist (also a racist, homophobe and colonialist). In making such lists, it would also be wrong to omit one Michèle Tabarot.

At least 7 people have been killed in a train derailment outside of Paris.  (http://www.france24.com/en/live-twitter?ns_campaign=live&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=reseaux_sociaux&ns_fee=0&ns_linkname=live_twitter) Valls says there are many more injured. :(

4 cars piled up, 385 passengers on board.

In other news, Fitch has downgraded credit to AA+.

This is the worst train accident in France in 25 years. My wife had to take a train from the same station just 45 minutes after...

It ended to 6 killed, many more injured.

Oh my god, that must be terrifying.

UMP misogynistic war on Cecile Duflot continues, resorts to trashing her bf and leads to her crying: http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2013/07/16/a-l-assemblee-le-tweet-anti-14-juillet-du-compagnon-de-cecile-duflot-refait-surface_3448526_823448.html

Well I accompanied her to the station, so no that was alright. On the other hand I have to take the exact same train to Limoges that crashed on August, 1st. ^_^

Reactionaries are disgusting people, she should know it well by now.

On more heartening news, I just heard the Femen's leader has been chosen to be the next Marianne model. That's pretty cool. :)

That's horrible. Because of reasons.

???

She's a rather divisive figure...and not everyone is a fan of Femen.

I'm not sure a movement whose only means of demonstrating are getting naked to get TV-cover, misandristic discourse, while effectively reproducing virilistic and patriarchal clichés, not to mention a bit opaquely financed, have the vocation to embody the French Republic.

Trying to get TV coverage is not a bad thing. If that helps publicizing a rightful message, it can be useful.

You've got to enlighten me as to the other 3.

To be honest, I have mixed feelings. I was all for trying to get more media coverage in my extreme-left-wing corner for years, and I was enchanted when Mélenchon achieved just that. So I guess "happenings" are not a bad thing per se and can send a message.

On the other hand, a number of inconsistencies in the Femen's views and actions are listed in this article of Le Monde diplomatique (http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/carnet/2013-03-12-Femen). It covers things quite well, with pros and cons (as you can expect from le Monde diplo).

As for the financing part, my brother mentioned it a few days ago, I'll ask him more details.

I had no idea about these troubling aspects of the movements. Very disappointing indeed. I do think that patriarchal tropes can in some circumstances be exploited to advance feminist goals. But judging by the few quotes posted on the article, the Femen are going far beyond that and lack the proper awareness.

French police station attacked after veil incident (http://news.yahoo.com/french-police-station-attacked-veil-incident-082153645.html)

When you think the right (not the far-right, the "moderate right") couldn't sink any lower, well, here you have it: Gilles Bourdouleix (UDI), deputy/mayor of Cholet (49) said that Hitler didn't kill enough 'gens du voyage'...

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2013/07/23/01002-20130723ARTFIG00273-hitler-et-les-gens-du-voyage-les-politiques-condamnent-unanimement-le-maire-de-cholet.php

So, yeah. Hopefully somebody takes it upon themselves to murder this Nazi scumbag.

DSK will face pimping charges. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-23467433#TWEET835438)

loldsk

but he was framed amirite gais?

lol French people.

By this point you really do need a heart of stone not to laugh.

Now imagine if the scandal came out this year, when he might've been entering his second year as President. :P

Believe me, this thought haunts me.

(and it's especially depressing considering I was planning to vote for him)

http://www.europe1.fr/Politique/Nouveau-derapage-de-Bruno-Gollnisch-1601699/

Re Gollnisch: Lewd racist scum is still lewd racist scum.

I wouldn't be surprised if he's antisemit too..

Municipal elections will be on March 23rd and 30th.  (http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2013/09/05/97001-20130905FILWWW00500-municipales-elections-les-23-et-30-mars.php)

Question is, would Fillon blink?   (http://www.valeursactuelles.com/comment/7541) Certainly wouldn't be the first time a president and PM went head to head.

Kind reminder to our True Leftist mates about who the great Panzergirl really is: http://blogs.mediapart.fr/edition/pole-emploi-mon-amour/article/260613/marine-le-pen-tombe-le-masque-sur-la-societe-quelle-imposera-si-elle-est-elue

In other news, the CNIP has been kicked out of the UDI and Adolf Hitler-Bourdouleix will be sitting as a NI.

Maybe it's because I'm an awful American, but I don't see what was so terrible about Le Pen's statement.  I'm also uncertain what the writer's point was.  Was it that the length of one's state-funded unemployment compensation should be based on the length of time one was employed?  If so, that's rather idiotic in my opinion.  It might have been in favor of a guaranteed minimum benefit that would be continued indefinitely.  That would be rather less idiotic, but still highly utopian.

She propose to expell foreigners from the country once their employment benefits are ended.

Okay, that's a more understandable and relevant concern, but one I didn't catch when Google translated the article for me.

Rightward turns from Fillon.  (http://www.dhnet.be/dernieres-depeches/afp/fillon-un-changement-de-strategie-pour-seduire-la-base-de-l-ump-52348c693570b0befbe10004)

Indeed, as the article says, Séguin must be rolling in his grave.

Panzerdaddy is running for the EP again. (http://www.france24.com/fr/20130917-france-fn-front-national-jean-marie-le-pen-candidat-elections-europeennes-2014-paca?ns_campaign=editorial&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=reseaux_sociaux&ns_fee=&ns_linkname=20130917_france_fn_front_national_jean_marie&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter)

Senate adopted an amendment banning beauty pageants for children under 16. On a party-line vote, the UMP, UDI, RDSE, Greenies and NI voted in favour, the SRC and Commies voted against.

Good news.

Sarko is considering returning next year instead of 2015.  (http://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/Sarkozy-pourrait-revenir-peut-etre-avant-2015-629675)

()

I say he runs for mayor of Neuilly in 2014.

Senators in a last-ditch fight to save their local jobs...

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2013/09/19/les-senateurs-refusent-de-se-voir-appliquer-le-non-cumul-des-mandats_3480203_823448.html
http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2013/09/18/l-ultime-bataille-des-senateurs-pour-le-cumul-des-mandats_3479757_823448.html

They adopted an amendment allowing them to still hold one local executive office. The UMP, UDI, RDSE and 4 NI voted in favour, and 26 Socialist senators also voted in favour including the group's president (François Rebsamen). 51 Socialists, all Greenies and all Commies were the only ones who weren't grubby little dicks.

For laughs (in French): http://www.topito.com/top-justification-senat-cumul-mandats

ROFLMAO. Yeah, they should definitely hold one office at a time. Any chance of a similar law for MNAs?

Sikhs seeking an exemption from the religious symbols law. (http://sg.news.yahoo.com/sikhs-caught-frances-battle-stay-secular-054731653.html)

Government floating the possibility of a "pre-majority", thereby possibly enfranchising 16-18 year olds in local elections (http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2013/09/24/le-gouvernement-etudie-un-droit-de-vote-aux-elections-locales-des-16-ans_3483829_823448.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter). Personally I'm not in favour, and any bets that it wouldn't take long before clamouring started for the voting age to be universally lowered? Either do it across the board or don't do it IMO.

How about voting rights for resident foreigner in all local elections, eh Flanby?

Nobody cares about the voting age, I think, and I don't want 16 year olds voting because it would probably be terrible (I VOTE FN BKOZ DEY R KEWL). I suppose the FN might like to lower it, because Panzergirl seems to be big on promoting "young talents" (read: 18-year old idiots who parrot the FN party line).

This whole debate is part of a government bill which would bar deputies, senators and MEPs from holding any local executive office. It's nothing too radical, because they could still be regional/departmental/municipal councillors (like many are). The National Assembly adopted the bill in July, 300 votes to 228.

For the record, the National Assembly vote was as follows:
SRC: 269 for, 4 against (3 MRC, and one PS dissident from the Nord who is a big cumulard), 10 abstentions (didn't look them up, but I think a few are cumulards too)
UMP: 189 against, 3 abstentions
UDI: 20 against, 10 abstentions
Ecolo: 17 for
RRDP: 4 for (Falorni, the Reunion Modemite, Giacobbi, some Lot PRG person), 10 against, 1 abstention (iirc, the PS suppleant for Sylvia Pinel, PRG deputy-turned-cabinet minister, who sits in the RRDP group as part of some deal)
GDR: 7 for, 3 against (2 DOM, and Patrice Carvalho, who seems like a paleocommunist from his general voting [anti-SSM])
NI: 3 for (Andrieux, FN), 2 against (MPF, NDA)

The government is using a 'procédure accélérée' here, so there will be only one reading by both houses, it will now go to a CMP which will likely find no compromise, so the National Assembly will just adopt its own version and tell the Senate to go f- itself.

I'll still hand it to Flanby and co for acting on this one. I, for one, had little hope that the RadSocs-reincarnated would actually act on this, and do so that quickly. Sure, it took a lot of confusing wheeling-and-dealing and public prodding, but they did it - there's at least one thing which this government has done which the right hadn't and wouldn't.

I will be entirely sure this has been done when the Assembly actually votes it in its terms and without including any of the Senate's bullsh**t. But if they actually do, I'll also grant it to the PS among the things I'd never have believed they would indeed do.

Kudos to the PS for doing this.

One aspect of the new bill/law which escaped me at first: the law will only apply beginning after the 2017 elections. I knew that this was all too good to be true, we couldn't afford to let these poor, tormented souls go hungry and unemployed like that!

In other news, EELV keeps going down the sh**tter: Noël Mamère has left the party, saying that the party has become power-hungry, self-interested and run by Cecile Duflot and her clan. The leader of the party, Pascal Durand, is retiring; his 'ultimatum' to Flanby and his tough line against the government isn't appreciated by Duflot and co. He'll likely be replaced in November by Emmanuelle Cosse, an ally of Duflot and generally more pro-government.

More anti-Roma racist horsesh**t from Oberst-Gruppenführer Manuel Valls
http://www.lemonde.fr/a-la-une/article/2013/09/25/roms-la-faute-de-manuel-valls_3484159_3208.html

'Le changement c'est maintenant' (whites-only)

God, why won't Flanby get the f[inks] rid of that racist monster?

Because Manuel Valls is the most popular cabinet minister in the entire government (although it's dropped some lately, I would suppose as a result of UMP/FN voters being less positive about him after the UMP started criticizing him for various kinds of stuff), and certainly the most popular of the more 'visible' ministers (most people probably approve of the likes of Le Drian, Filippetti because their portfolios are low-profile in the media and they're uncontroversial). Furthermore, as disgustingly racist (and downright retarded and illegal) the Oberst-Gruppenführer's comments are, they're quite popular with the wider electorate (and a lot of mayors, who have problems with the resettlement of Romas) and only a fairly small niche circle of bobos and far-leftists actually take issue with his comments (according to a poll, only 21% condemn his comments). Tellingly, the most common response to Duflot's comments (even on Le Monde.fr, not even talking about Le Figaro here) seems to be the usual "why are the greenies annoying us"/"who does she think she is"/"why hasn't she been fired yet".

Sad as it may be, the Oberst-Gruppenführer is one of the few guys who is actually an asset for Flanby/the PS, most notably by neutralizing a common criticism of the left as being 'soft on crime' (which is often cited as one thing which sunk the PS in 2002). Flanby (and Ayrault, who might or might not still be alive) might personally find him a bit too extreme and a pain in the ass, but he's smart enough to know that firing the Oberst-Gruppenführer over this would be a PR disaster for the government and would work against the government since Valls could probably be even more of a maverick pain in the ass outside the government (besides his tough-on-crime/browns-suck image, his whole annoying 'I'M A MAVERICK I CRITICIZE THE LEFT ON KEY ISSUES LOOK AT ME' shtick works out quite well with an electorate which just *loves* politicians of his kind).

tl;dr: politics isn't about what's morally right, so let's stop being naive, kids, and take up drinking

re: http://www.leparisien.fr/politique/sondage-les-francais-soutiennent-valls-sur-les-roms-27-09-2013-3175463.php

In other news, what does everyone think of Sunday shopping? (http://www.france24.com/en/20130928-french-france-labour-law-sunday-shopping-castorama-sephora?ns_campaign=editorial&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=reseaux_sociaux&ns_fee=&ns_linkname=20130928_french_france_labour_law_sunday_shopping&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter) Personally I support the idea.

Ugh. Is there a more effective way to cement a belief than letting it go unopposed/forming a consensus? The long succession of 'tough on benefits' Labour ministers has worked wonders for public perceptions about both Labour and benefit receivers(!).

Generally opposed to Sunday shopping.  Certainly the idea that it will increase overall consumer spending is laughable.

Yeah I'm pretty sur you won't have to work every Sunday of the year not being able to see your kids and family in your life, so shut up on this.

Fun news of the day: some obscure article in a law passed by Poison Dwarf in 2010 allows me to vote for the European Parliament... in the Ile-de-France constituency :D

Cécilia Attas has written a tell-all memoir.  (http://www.rtl.fr/actualites/info/politique/article/cecilia-attias-raconte-sa-separation-de-nicolas-sarkozy-7765067547)  Also, more financial investigations into her ex. (http://www.lesechos.fr/economie-politique/politique/actu/0203043893306-affaire-karachi-des-juges-autorises-a-enqueter-sur-nicolas-sarkozy-613266.php)

Apparently Cecilia whined about her being deeply hurt by something (I think invasion of her private life etc) and her life being complicated or something. And then this: organiser une fête privée à l'hôtel Fouquet's n'avait rien d'incongru, c'était une manière d'honorer Paris et la France et d'associer notre joie à un lieu que nos concitoyens aimaient (Hash's translation: organizing an exclusive party for our rich white friends when Poison Dwarf won was not incongruous, it was a way to honour Paris and France and associate our joy to a place which the French people like...)

And she also says that "she saved lives" with the Bulgarian nurses and Gaddafi in 2007. Everybody knows that Gaddafi released them because Poison Dwarf bribed him and/or he owed him something after paying for his 2007 campaign.

What a sheltered little bourgeois snob. Go back to your Upper East Side den, and stop pestering people with your rich problems nobody cares about.

()

So this is totally unrelated to politics but it has to do with France and maps so w.e. Nintendo has released their map of the new region for the next Pokemon game:

()

ah those Japanese (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_syndrome)

Too much mountains, but I can guarantee that the snow in Lorraine is well placed... ^_^

I envy you: being able to vote for Pécresse :P

Well, I suppose you'll get Béchu, as he is running in all list elections in Western France (and resigning if he loses).

Do we already have hints as to who will lead the main lists in the constituencies ? I know talks have started, but I don't hear much.

I saw things about Île-de-France, but not much more.

The Bettencourt-Sarko investigation has been dropped. (http://www.france24.com/en/20131007-sarkozy-probe-dropped-l%E2%80%99oreal-heiress-case?ns_campaign=editorial&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=reseaux_sociaux&ns_fee=0&ns_linkname=20131007_sarkozy_probe_dropped_l%E2%80%99oreal_heiress_case)

As a wise man once said, Sarkozy will be re-elected.

In shocking news for today:
UMP deputies continue to be sexist pigs: http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2013/10/09/caquetement-d-un-depute-ump-lors-de-l-intervention-d-une-elue-eelv_3492289_823448.html
Alain Delon, tax evader, homophobe and racist idiot, praises the FN: http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2013/10/09/alain-delon-soutient-la-progression-du-front-national_3492655_823448.html

Not really a surprise, he was a big friend of Léon Degrelle during the latter's exile in Spain.

Gerard Collomb, Moderate Hero extraordinaire, will apparently protest with the employers' organization (MEDEF) against the government's economic policy. He's also a PS mayor running for reelection next year.

Source: http://www.lyoncapitale.fr/Journal/Lyon/Actualite/Economie/Collomb-avec-le-MEDEF-et-la-CGPME-contre-le-Gouvernement

My daily contribution to the morons who think the FN isn't a far-right party: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2fOpW7lbyQ (FN MEP Bruno Gollnisch, Holocaust denier in chief, speaking at a Hungarian Nazi rally)

And Gérard Collomb also has the PCF of Lyon on its first round list like little dumb traitor soldiers. Sigh...

FN wins Brignoles by-election with 53.4%. (http://albertonardelli.tumblr.com/post/63940807556/the-front-nationals-win-in-brignoles-isnt-the-real)

The first round of the PS' "primaires citoyennes" for the munis were today, most notably in Marseille where it was a very hot and acrimonious 6 candidate race (naturally, it is Marseillais PS politics!). Apparently, PS senator Samia Ghali (from northern Marseille, and fairly pro-Guérini mafia clan) and PS deputy Patrick Mennucci (from central Marseille, pretty strongly anti-Guérini now) have qualified for the runoff, the defeated include Marie-Arlette Carlotti, a cabinet minister.

A few good articles for those interested (highly recommended):
http://www.slate.fr/france/78762/primaire-marseille-caselli-carlotti-ghali-mennucci-guerini
http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2013/10/03/samia-ghali-la-segolene-royal-de-marseille-bouscule-la-campagne-ps_3489347_823448.html
http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2013/10/09/a-marseille-le-sprint-final-des-candidats-a-la-primaire-ps_3492296_823448.html

I was more of a Carlotti kind of guy : she seemed like the only quiet, peaceful and, well, Parisian of the candidates... Now I don't care either way. Well, before, I didn't care either, but, you know...

Complete results are on the PS website (also for Aix, Béziers and Le Havre).
Mennucci hasn't won yet... as Caselli and Jibrayel voters will probably go to Ghali and as Masse voters may split.

Maybe some Gaudin supporters have voted for Ghali, hoping that she will explode during the municipal campaign ;D

Marseille results:
Samia Ghali (senator, mayor of the 8th sector, pro-Guérini) 25.25%
Patrick Mennucci (deputy, mayor of the 1st sector, nowadays anti-Guérini) 20.65%
Marie-Arlette Carlotti (cabinet minister, deputy, anti-Guérini/probably Flanby/Ayrault-Zero's candidate) 19.52%
Eugène Caselli (president of the urban community, formerly pro-Guérini) 16.57%
Christophe Masse (vice-president of the general council, anti-Mennucci, pro-Guérini) 14.29%
Henri Jibrayel (deputy, anti-Ghali, formerly pro-Guérini) 3.71%

20,700 voters.

Carlotti and Jibrayel have endorsed Mennucci, since both of them (especially the latter) hate Ghali. Masse will probably support Ghali because he hates Mennucci.

Cross-posted from the other thread...

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Very useful maps.

All the candidates, except Masse (who doesn't choose), are now behind Mennucci.

Well, it's a good thing for Ghali: she's now the "anti-system" and "anti-Paris" candidate... Quite funny for someone probably supported by Guérini (anti-system, eh ?...).

Jibrayel, Masse and most of Caselli voters will vote for Ghali, despite what their candidates say.

I'm more and more convinced she can win.

After all, Gaudin may be able to be reelected next March, as socialists will probably fight each other and as Ghali will probably lead a municipal campaign "à la Royal".

The national PS doesn't even have the balls to rig a local primary anymore... How sad. :P

Well, it's basically a fight between two systems/establishments: the Paris/Solferino/Matignon PS system and the PS 13 system. 

The anti-Paris stuff is probably going to be lucrative for Ghali, I can imagine that kind of stuff playing very well. It seems that her entire runoff campaign consists of calling Mennucci the "candidate of Matignon" and bitching about that as much as possible.

Don't be so sure.

Well, today, the members of Paris' PCF started a 3-day vote on whether they should have a Left Front list in next March's municipal election's first round in Paris or unite with the PS as soon as the first round. Results should be known Sunday or Monday.

There is nearly no doubt as to the fact that they will decide for the latter option. First, their leadership has presented them with the choice not quite impartially, stating that the first option could give them only something like 6 or 7 Paris' councillors, whereas the option with the PS would give them much more, something like 15. They have 8 incumbents by the way, and another important thing to know is that Pierre Laurent absolutely needs 11 councillors to keep is senatorial seat in the next senatorial election...

What we do not yet know, is whether their choice will or will not mean the short or middle-term death of the Left Front. Going on the same list as Hollande-Ayrault's PS at this time is more than political seppuku, but they have had a bad habit of outliving their earnings, and now they want to preserve their way of life at all costs. Even destroying the FG and risking obliteration in the following years, because the FG was the only thing that rescued them from oblivion a few years ago, and they cannot win anything on their own anymore.

The main risk is the media : the French media is arguably one of the dumbest in the world. They are not as scandalous or openly populist and vulgar as other countries', but they are hopelessly dumb. They have a tendency to spin their whole coverage of the municipal elections on what happens in Paris, Lyon and Marseille, and preferably on what happens in Paris alone.

So the Paris' PCF vote has not only an impact on the Parisian FG, but on its situation in the whole country, because the media will label it as "Severe discrepancies in an endangered FG" (Le Monde or Libé) or "The FG is dead" (20 minutes or Figaro).

Just as side note, in Lyon they are going with Collomb as soon as the first round, Collomb of all people... Whereas in Marseille they chose an independent FG list, which could or could not benefit from a probable trainwreck of a Ghali campaign.

One hilarious thing though : on Monday, in the FG's national liaison committe with representatives of each component, the PCF said they would like to start working on elaborating the FG's lists for the European Parliament elections, set two months after the municipals, and would like to have the heads of regional lists and the campaign apparel set to launch before Christmas...

Les cons, ça ose tout, c'est même à ça qu'on les reconnaît...

(PS : as a result of PCF leaving in Paris, it opens a lot of spots on the "what's-left-of-the-FG" lists, and I should probably be, way down though, on one of them ;))

Who would you be you standing for?

I am in Gauche unitaire, one of the "what's left of the FG" groupuscule, whose leadership wants to follow the PCF on some PS lists to get mandates, against the will of a majority of its members.

Trotskyists...

How are they able to push it through? Their votes outweigh yours? Sounds disastrous. :(

They got a majority in a non partisan vote in our previous congress, and now they won't submit the question to a vote of the organization. We're pushing for a new congress, though we need 2/3 of the members for that.

Direct quote from Samia Ghali:

Que Matignon se mêle de ces primaires me pose problème. M. Mennucci rassemble les élus, je rassemble les Marseillais. Je suis la candidate antisystème.

Hey, at least she's honest.

She's honest, but anyone from the PS saying she is antisystem is hilarious at best, maddeningly ironical at worst and depressing in all cases.

Plus, anyway, anybody claiming he is antisystem without the precision of said system they are against is supremely moronic.

(Am I turning into Hash ?)

Mennucci has won the primary (no numbers yet) but Ghali seems pissed off and there are rumours she won't endorse him. Even talks of dissident lists...

Samia Ghali just gave a speech... insane stuff. No concession, no mention of his name, she recognized she had not won, but said she hadn't lost because their fight continues (etc), she bitched about how she had been alone against 5 candidates and the government, she said she was extremely disappointed in Ayrault and the government's behaviour... And then when she pronounced Ayrault and Flanby's name, there was huge booing. She strongly criticized the government's policy.

tl;dr: Samia Ghali spoke like Panzergirl, the PS is a joke party

And Paris' PCF voted 57-43 in favor of 1st round lists with the PS...

They are a moribund party of moribund members under social liberal breathing assistance. Well... I'm not voting for this list either round.

Mennucci 57.16%
Ghali 42.84%

24,037 voters.

PS unity:

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Even though many young Communist leaders are more leftists (I mean socially liberal "gauchistes") than real communists, I think that there is something of a new landscape emerging in the "left of the left".
See Dieppe, where an EELV-PG list will fight against the PCF incumbent, supported by the PS.
See Rennes, with a PS-PCF list attacked by a EELV-PG-UDB list.
See also the Leonarda issue, with a split inside the PS between Lienemann, Hamon or Désir on one side, Kalfon (from the "Gauche populaire"), Royal or Le Guen on the other. Very interesting.

Old communists plus socialist apparatchiki, against red (Mélenchon-NPA), pink (Hamon) or green (EELV) "gauchistes", this may be the new split inside the left.
Of course, as the left of the left is as united and well-organized as the centre-right (whatever alliance MoDem and UDI may put forward...), there won't be a two-big-party left, with a social democrat wing and a leftist wing.

It's a great result for Ghali. And a symptom of a problem of authority inside the PS: populism and disdain for Hollande and Ayrault aren't only outside the PS, in the popular electorate which has largely swung to the FN or dropped any idea of turning out; they are also inside some local PS organizations.

Of course, Gaudin is old, Mennucci is a better candidate than Ghali and a potential FN pressure on Gaudin may result in his defeat anyway. But, well, whereas I was very pessimistic for his reelection only weeks ago, he may win again, after all.

()

lolmarseille

Football clubs will strike starting next month over the supertax.  (http://www.france24.com/en/breaking/20131024-france%E2%80%99-top-football-clubs-go-strike-over-75-tax-earnings?ns_campaign=breaking_news&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=reseaux_sociaux&ns_fee=0&ns_linkname=breaking_20131024_france%E2%80%99_top_football_clubs_go_strike)

Lacks dignity.

BREAKING NEWS: Samia Ghali has smiled!

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She has proposed a conditional endorsement of Mennucci. Very disappointing stuff :( Details: http://www.laprovence.com/article/edition-marseille/2591606/reconciliation-en-vue-entre-ghali-et-mennucci.html

A journalist from La Provence RTed my map of the primary runoff :D

In today's news

The Crazy Lady has completely lost it again:
http://bigbrowser.blog.lemonde.fr/2013/10/24/chemin-delacroix-segolene-royal-pose-en-liberte-guidant-le-peuple/

Flanby lives in alternate reality/another planet where unemployment is going down:
http://www.lemonde.fr/emploi/article/2013/10/25/ayrault-convaincu-que-la-courbe-du-chomage-va-s-inverser-avant-noel_3502681_1698637.html

Well, I think Hollande should change his PM. I would strongly advocate him to nominate Aubry. Strategically, it would be smart. She's a big mouth and he has to recover with the base.


And please, NOT VALLS.

He's now at 26% approval (http://www.bva.fr/data/sondage/sondage_fiche/1372/fichier_barometre_bva_-_orange_-_lexpress_-_presse_regionale_-_france_inter_-_28_octobre_2013e9a2d.pdf), though not quite at Sarko's record low of 22% a couple of years ago. I'd say he should review policy more than personnel, but that's just me. On the flip side, there's a long time till the election.

Rewiew policy? More on the left or more on the right? :p

Well, a less fascist and racist immigration policy under a minister who isn't some modern day milicien would be nice; but the chance of that happening is lower than me hooking up with Aubrey Plaza tomorrow.

Panzergirl has been watching way too much Homeland, insinuates that the freed hostages have been 'turned' and that we have a Brody amongst us!

http://www.francetvinfo.fr/live/message/527/215/891/cc6/f00/7b3/03b/fcc.html

(keeping with the theme: Panzergirl is more annoying than Dana Brody)

It seems there's a racism scandal in France right now:


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/10428765/Racist-France-is-back-says-countrys-first-black-newsreader.html

"Racist France is back"? Has it ever been over?

New YouGov/HuffPo poll: the bottom is falling out

Flanby approval
Disapprove 76% (+7)
Approve 15% (-6)

Even PS-EELV sympathizers disapprove, 49-44. Zero stands at 74-15, government approval is at 14%. As far as I know, 15% is an all-time low for any French President. Of course it's YouGov.

loooooooooooooooooooooooooooooool

IFOP poll:

()

Worst president ever since polling began in 1958.

OMG wow.

lolflamby

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Oh .

Still 3.5 years to go. Wonder how that translates downballot for next year's municipals.

Honestly, compared to France, New Hampshire looks like Mississippi for elasticity...

Some guy with a hunting rifle is running amok in Paris today:


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24985779

When the hell will the rot for Hollande stop? Even a dead cat bounces, and all that.

Well, when he does anything good. Even when he does anything, at all.

The shooting suspect has been arrested. (http://bigstory.ap.org/article/france-says-newspaper-shooting-suspect-arrested)

OMG, it's an Arab. Let the racist drivel begin...

Holy sh*t Flanby.  Please.  Don't run in 2017.  Please.  Hell, resign now, frankly.  You may have killed the French left for a good 20 years. 

PS has been through worse before: 1993 when they got bounced into third, but 4 years later they were back with a comfortable majority government. Hugely elastic electorate, as windjammer pointed out.

More bad economic news: contraction and possible recession is on the horizon.  (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/22/business/business-activity-fell-in-france-and-rose-in-germany.html?hpw&rref=&_r=1&&pagewanted=print)

Honestly, I don't see Ayrault staying PM after 2015 French regional elections.


No, Flanby isn't horrible, "it's economy, stupid" (Bill Clinton).
Well, an another thing, French elections are really elastic except presidential election. See Sarkozy, unpopular but got 48%. If he's reelected or defeated in 2017, it  will probably be by a 5-6% margin at best.
Well, honestly, I have the feeling Regional elections will be disastrous in 2015: UMP will probably control 19,20 regions!

This may seem a rather silly question, but why do French Presidents always become so unpopular?

Clinton: "It's economy, stupid".

It's not only the economy. It's also has to do with the fact he's barely done anything since elected.

^^

I don't think Flanby is the worst person ever and that he's some sort of all-time horrible president, but the truth is that Flanby's unpopularity isn't only because the economy is in the sh**tter and circumstances outside of his power.
 
His economic/fiscal policy is disapproved by the right, centre and a lot of the left for varying reasons. His government is rather inexperienced and has little internal cohesion, given the public feuds between various ministers or the constant need for somebody to tell somebody else to behave or stick to the official line. For this and other reasons, the government also appears to be quite incompetent, vacillating and like a deer in the headlights. Besides gay marriage, it's hard to think of one major groundbreaking policy initiative/reform/whatever that has come out of this government (nobody cares about/aren't super enthused by the laws passed on jobs and whatever). His Prime Minister is basically AWOL and has done anything whatsoever. The right/far-right's demagoguery on immigration is successful. Flanby looked like an idiot with the Leonarda case recently. Nobody cares about Flanby's main foreign policy success (Mali) and his behaviour wrt Syria made him look like some weak fool. The whole 'président normal' bullsh**t died out very quickly when Flanby began behaving like Poison Dwarf and his predecessors. The government's response to the Cahuzac case was pretty crappy and it lost a lot of credibility.

That being said, can we cut the sensationalist bullsh**t about "losing power for 20 years"? I'm not denying 2014/2015 will be extremely bloody, and that Flanby will probably lose in 2017 if things keep going this way (probably along Ségo '07 and Chirac '88 margins, potentially Mitterrand '65); but the idea that the left will be out of power for 20 years because of Flanby is laughable. The French left isn't dead, because the French left as a thing can't die (and neither can the right).

In other news, I've been purged from my party. More about this tomorrow if I can get some sleep in the mean time...

It's the issue with the personality cults.