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Title: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: krazen1211 on July 03, 2012, 09:31:21 AM http://www.nccivitas.org/2012/civitas-poll-romney-leads-in-nc-after-court-ruling/
http://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/chart2.pdf In a poll taken June 29-July 1, 50 percent of voting age North Carolinians supported the former Massachusetts governor. President Obama was backed by 45 percent. Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: kenyanobama on July 03, 2012, 10:31:16 AM http://www.nccivitas.org/2012/civitas-poll-romney-leads-in-nc-after-court-ruling/ http://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/chart2.pdf In a poll taken June 29-July 1, 50 percent of voting age North Carolinians supported the former Massachusetts governor. President Obama was backed by 45 percent. I think they're being generous to Obama, but in before the libs go bonkers. Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: Miles on July 03, 2012, 10:34:02 AM Well, its Civitas, though the partisan composition checks out to me.
In any case, poll entered. (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3700201271124) Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: Brittain33 on July 03, 2012, 11:02:03 AM Well, its Civitas, though the partisan composition checks out to me. In any case, poll entered. (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3700201271124) Assuming any swing at all away from Obama from 2008 makes a poll showing Romney up 5 in NC reasonable. Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: tmthforu94 on July 03, 2012, 11:14:00 AM Civitas has been favorable to the GOP throughout this cycle, but this is an increase from a late-May poll that had Romney up only 2.
Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: Miles on July 03, 2012, 11:15:24 AM Civitas has been favorable to the GOP throughout this cycle, but this is an increase from a late-May poll that had Romney up only 2. I actually think Civitas is becoming a credible pollster; we'll see if that holds up. Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: Sasquatch on July 03, 2012, 11:47:52 AM I don't doubt that Romney is leading in NC, but how is Romney winning 64% of hispanics?
Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on July 03, 2012, 12:28:39 PM I don't doubt that Romney is leading in NC, but how is Romney winning 64% of hispanics? Well first off, the number of Hispanics they polled is approximately 40, so that's around a 15% MoE even if their Hispanic sample was representative, which is doubtful. Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: timothyinMD on July 03, 2012, 02:15:14 PM This poll seems spot on. It's consistent with others showing Romney with a modest lead in NC, what seems off is the 3% response for "Other"
NC has one of the lowest rates of third party voting Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: krazen1211 on July 03, 2012, 03:46:46 PM Civitas has been favorable to the GOP throughout this cycle, but this is an increase from a late-May poll that had Romney up only 2. I actually think Civitas is becoming a credible pollster; we'll see if that holds up. Allegedly SurveyUSA actually did the polling. They are a topnotch pollster. Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: Miles on July 03, 2012, 04:01:09 PM Civitas has been favorable to the GOP throughout this cycle, but this is an increase from a late-May poll that had Romney up only 2. I actually think Civitas is becoming a credible pollster; we'll see if that holds up. Allegedly SurveyUSA actually did the polling. They are a topnotch pollster. Hmm...yeah, SUSA is good. Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: Supersonic on July 04, 2012, 09:28:13 AM Lean Romney.
Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: Vern on July 04, 2012, 11:13:46 AM North Carolina is no where near lean Romney, polls jump back and foward from Obama to Romney, therefore it is a toss-up state.
Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: BritishDixie on July 04, 2012, 11:18:26 AM The black turnout won't be as high this year, and that only just pushed Obama over the line, so lean Romney.
Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: Vern on July 04, 2012, 11:23:10 AM Do you know anything about N.C.? I highly doubt you truly do. North Carolina is changing so very fast. The main cities are growing non-stop and getting more liberal by the day. The younger voters under the age of 40 are liberal minded.
Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: BritishDixie on July 04, 2012, 11:24:15 AM Do you know anything about N.C.? I highly doubt you truly do. North Carolina is changing so very fast. The main cities are growing non-stop and getting more liberal by the day. The younger voters under the age of 40 are liberal minded. Sorry I was just going on what knowledge I had about why Obama won in 2008. Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: FreedomFighter on July 04, 2012, 11:34:57 AM The black turnout won't be as high this year, and that only just pushed Obama over the line, so lean Romney. More racism from BritishDixie. Tell me, are you a Klansman or somethign. Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: Vern on July 04, 2012, 11:36:45 AM Do you know anything about N.C.? I highly doubt you truly do. North Carolina is changing so very fast. The main cities are growing non-stop and getting more liberal by the day. The younger voters under the age of 40 are liberal minded. Sorry I was just going on what knowledge I had about why Obama won in 2008. It is fine. Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: Vern on July 04, 2012, 11:38:18 AM The black turnout won't be as high this year, and that only just pushed Obama over the line, so lean Romney. More racism from BritishDixie. Tell me, are you a Klansman or somethign. I don't see any relation between a racist comment and what He said? Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: FreedomFighter on July 04, 2012, 11:42:10 AM The black turnout won't be as high this year, and that only just pushed Obama over the line, so lean Romney. More racism from BritishDixie. Tell me, are you a Klansman or somethign. I don't see any relation between a racist comment and what He said? He's suggesting blacks are dum, by saying that they're uncapable of voting for Obama. Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: Vern on July 04, 2012, 11:47:13 AM The black turnout won't be as high this year, and that only just pushed Obama over the line, so lean Romney. More racism from BritishDixie. Tell me, are you a Klansman or somethign. I don't see any relation between a racist comment and what He said? He's suggesting blacks are dum, by saying that they're uncapable of voting for Obama. No, what He said is a true statement, this year the black turn-out will not be as high. The excitement over electing the first black president is over so a lot of the black folks who only voted to elected Him will not turn out this year. Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: Frodo on July 04, 2012, 11:53:04 AM Do you know anything about N.C.? I highly doubt you truly do. North Carolina is changing so very fast. The main cities are growing non-stop and getting more liberal by the day. The younger voters under the age of 40 are liberal minded. All of what you said is true, which indicates North Carolina will become more of a swing state in future elections. What is in question is whether it will be enough to make a difference this year. Given the lack of enthusiasm on the part of the base for President Obama (the support given him so far is most likely obligatory), the sheer frenzy by Republicans to get rid of him, the poor economy, and the fact this is still a conservative southern state -even more so than Virginia- I think Republicans can still pull one more rabbit out of the hat and win this state in November. Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: Vern on July 04, 2012, 01:39:12 PM Do you know anything about N.C.? I highly doubt you truly do. North Carolina is changing so very fast. The main cities are growing non-stop and getting more liberal by the day. The younger voters under the age of 40 are liberal minded. All of what you said is true, which indicates North Carolina will become more of a swing state in future elections. What is in question is whether it will be enough to make a difference this year. Given the lack of enthusiasm on the part of the base for President Obama (the support given him so far is most likely obligatory), the sheer frenzy by Republicans to get rid of him, the poor econYomy, and the fact this is still a conservative southern state -even more so than Virginia- I think Republicans can still pull one more rabbit out of the hat and win this state in November. Oh, there is no doubt Romney could win there, but this doesn't make it lean Romney. Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: Minnesota Mike on July 04, 2012, 02:09:19 PM No, what He said is a true statement, this year the black turn-out will not be as high. The excitement over electing the first black president is over so a lot of the black folks who only voted to elected Him will not turn out this year. I call BS. Much of the polling I have seen has African Americans as the group most enthusiastic about voting in 2012. While there may not be the same first time thrill in voting for Obama in 2012 as there was in 2008 I think African Americans will have the Presidents back in 2012 and turnout. Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: Vern on July 04, 2012, 05:21:56 PM No, what He said is a true statement, this year the black turn-out will not be as high. The excitement over electing the first black president is over so a lot of the black folks who only voted to elected Him will not turn out this year. I call BS. Much of the polling I have seen has African Americans as the group most enthusiastic about voting in 2012. While there may not be the same first time thrill in voting for Obama in 2012 as there was in 2008 I think African Americans will have the Presidents back in 2012 and turnout. Maybe, but polls can be miss leading. Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: pepper11 on July 04, 2012, 06:23:52 PM Do you know anything about N.C.? I highly doubt you truly do. North Carolina is changing so very fast. The main cities are growing non-stop and getting more liberal by the day. The younger voters under the age of 40 are liberal minded. Is that why the NC same sex marriage ban was upheld 2-1? Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: Miles on July 04, 2012, 06:32:26 PM Do you know anything about N.C.? I highly doubt you truly do. North Carolina is changing so very fast. The main cities are growing non-stop and getting more liberal by the day. The younger voters under the age of 40 are liberal minded. Is that why the NC same sex marriage ban was upheld 2-1? Except it wasn't a ban on same-marriage; it was effectively a ban on civil unions or anything else other than marriage between a man and woman. Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: pepper11 on July 04, 2012, 08:31:54 PM Do you know anything about N.C.? I highly doubt you truly do. North Carolina is changing so very fast. The main cities are growing non-stop and getting more liberal by the day. The younger voters under the age of 40 are liberal minded. Is that why the NC same sex marriage ban was upheld 2-1? Except it wasn't a ban on same-marriage; it was effectively a ban on civil unions or anything else other than marriage between a man and woman. All the more strength to the argument that NC demographics are not exactly trending left. Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: Brittain33 on July 04, 2012, 09:07:27 PM Compare the results in NC to similar votes in MS, LA, and TX. You can't conclude something is or isn't trending by one election result, but note that a strongly Democratic state is one where SSM is defeated only narrowly (CA, OR, MI).
Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: Miles on July 04, 2012, 09:14:45 PM Do you know anything about N.C.? I highly doubt you truly do. North Carolina is changing so very fast. The main cities are growing non-stop and getting more liberal by the day. The younger voters under the age of 40 are liberal minded. Is that why the NC same sex marriage ban was upheld 2-1? Except it wasn't a ban on same-marriage; it was effectively a ban on civil unions or anything else other than marriage between a man and woman. All the more strength to the argument that NC demographics are not exactly trending left. There are a lot of socially conservative Dems here that voted for it (like in districts 1 and 7). Actually, the fastest-growing suburbs, those in Charlotte and Raleigh, are normally Republican voting, but Amendment 1 did very poorly in those areas. I did some pretty extensive mapping on that. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=153348.0) Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on July 05, 2012, 01:08:22 AM No, what He said is a true statement, this year the black turn-out will not be as high. The excitement over electing the first black president is over so a lot of the black folks who only voted to elected Him will not turn out this year. I call BS. Much of the polling I have seen has African Americans as the group most enthusiastic about voting in 2012. While there may not be the same first time thrill in voting for Obama in 2012 as there was in 2008 I think African Americans will have the Presidents back in 2012 and turnout. Maybe, but polls can be miss leading. Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: pbrower2a on July 05, 2012, 09:47:30 AM The black turnout won't be as high this year, and that only just pushed Obama over the line, so lean Romney. That assumes a lot that nobody can predict. Wishful thinking? Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: Vern on July 05, 2012, 12:57:48 PM No, what He said is a true statement, this year the black turn-out will not be as high. The excitement over electing the first black president is over so a lot of the black folks who only voted to elected Him will not turn out this year. I call BS. Much of the polling I have seen has African Americans as the group most enthusiastic about voting in 2012. While there may not be the same first time thrill in voting for Obama in 2012 as there was in 2008 I think African Americans will have the Presidents back in 2012 anHd turnout. Maybe, but polls can be miss leading. I never said this poll was right or wrong.. Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: Tender Branson on July 05, 2012, 01:00:31 PM Poll was done by SurveyUSA for Civitas. But considering that SUSA once had McCain up 20 against Obama in September, you shouldn't read too much into the Romney+5 lead.
Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: pbrower2a on July 05, 2012, 01:08:26 PM Poll was done by SurveyUSA for Civitas. But considering that SUSA once had McCain up 20 against Obama in September, you shouldn't read too much into the Romney+5 lead. PPP will be polling NC this weekend. Survey USA is not a creditable pollster, and I use it only to corroborate what others have found or what makes eminent sense. If it shows President Obama up 20 in California or down 20 in Kansas I would accept either one because those are so far off the margin that they couldn't be contested. Title: Re: NC-Civitas: Romney hits 50%, up 5 Post by: Tender Branson on July 05, 2012, 01:13:36 PM Poll was done by SurveyUSA for Civitas. But considering that SUSA once had McCain up 20 against Obama in September, you shouldn't read too much into the Romney+5 lead. PPP will be polling NC this weekend. Survey USA is not a creditable pollster, and I use it only to corroborate what others have found or what makes eminent sense. If it shows President Obama up 20 in California or down 20 in Kansas I would accept either one because those are so far off the margin that they couldn't be contested. Why do you think SUSA is not a credible pollster ? They are actually one of the best (at least their final polls before an election). |