Title: Of these four, who do you think is most likely to be Romney's running mate?
Post by: All Along The Watchtower on July 05, 2012, 08:08:15 PM
Based on this RealClearPolitics article:
more: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/07/05/romneys_vp_short_list_it_may_be_down_to_four_114698.html (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/07/05/romneys_vp_short_list_it_may_be_down_to_four_114698.html)
I would say Portman is most likely at this point.
Quote
Mitt Romney may be tight-lipped about his vice presidential short list, warning that only he and longtime aide Beth Myers know who is on it, but a close examination of the campaign's activity suggests four contenders have risen through the ranks: Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Ohio Sen. Rob Portman, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal.
New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte and Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell may be considered wild cards, and Romney has said he’s thoroughly vetting Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, though the first-term lawmaker’s status appears unchanged.
Final short lists tend to have three names: Barack Obama’s trio included Joe Biden, Tim Kaine and Evan Bayh. John McCain’s final three were Romney, Pawlenty and Joe Lieberman, though Sarah Palin ultimately leapfrogged them all.
In this case, though, the presumptive Republican nominee has a reputation for gathering copious amounts of data to make his decisions, and that’s why a pick out of leftfield, like McCain’s choice of Palin, is unlikely. Romney doesn’t rely on his gut; he deliberates. That was true when he was considering this presidential run and asked his team for game plans and each member of his family for their input.
And for years, insiders have praised his preparation, saying that he plays the role of a devil’s advocate. Those who work for him now after logging time on McCain’s 2008 campaign say he was the smartest, most prepared surrogate for the Arizona senator. Senior House Republican aides say that when he started working with them on several initiatives before the midterm elections, he challenged some of the material they offered to him for preparation. In other words, he was a tough sell who needed more than talking points and wanted to see data. In this way, he and Portman are like-minded, but it shows that each of his potential running mates will undergo a thorough testing on various fronts.
New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte and Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell may be considered wild cards, and Romney has said he’s thoroughly vetting Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, though the first-term lawmaker’s status appears unchanged.
Final short lists tend to have three names: Barack Obama’s trio included Joe Biden, Tim Kaine and Evan Bayh. John McCain’s final three were Romney, Pawlenty and Joe Lieberman, though Sarah Palin ultimately leapfrogged them all.
In this case, though, the presumptive Republican nominee has a reputation for gathering copious amounts of data to make his decisions, and that’s why a pick out of leftfield, like McCain’s choice of Palin, is unlikely. Romney doesn’t rely on his gut; he deliberates. That was true when he was considering this presidential run and asked his team for game plans and each member of his family for their input.
And for years, insiders have praised his preparation, saying that he plays the role of a devil’s advocate. Those who work for him now after logging time on McCain’s 2008 campaign say he was the smartest, most prepared surrogate for the Arizona senator. Senior House Republican aides say that when he started working with them on several initiatives before the midterm elections, he challenged some of the material they offered to him for preparation. In other words, he was a tough sell who needed more than talking points and wanted to see data. In this way, he and Portman are like-minded, but it shows that each of his potential running mates will undergo a thorough testing on various fronts.
more: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/07/05/romneys_vp_short_list_it_may_be_down_to_four_114698.html (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/07/05/romneys_vp_short_list_it_may_be_down_to_four_114698.html)
I would say Portman is most likely at this point.
Title: Re: Of these four, who do you think is most likely to be Romney's running mate?
Post by: You kip if you want to... on July 05, 2012, 08:21:52 PM
The GOP base at-large getting behind a former Hindu guy?
We're talking about the same Republican Party aren't we?
We're talking about the same Republican Party aren't we?
Title: Re: Of these four, who do you think is most likely to be Romney's running mate?
Post by: NHI on July 05, 2012, 08:22:55 PM
Ryan or Jindal. I'm going against the conventional wisdom. I don't think he'll pick Portman, and I don't see him picking Pawlenty, considering the Obamney Comment from 2011.
Title: Re: Of these four, who do you think is most likely to be Romney's running mate?
Post by: Donerail on July 05, 2012, 08:26:10 PM
Portman seems the most bland of them all; if not him, then T-Paw. Jindal and Ryan are exciting, so Romney's probably not gonna pick em.
Also, write-in: Louie Gohmert.
Also, write-in: Louie Gohmert.
Title: Re: Of these four, who do you think is most likely to be Romney's running mate?
Post by: Averroës Nix on July 05, 2012, 08:27:14 PM
I find it hilarious that anyone is taking Pawlenty as a serious contender at this point.
Title: Re: Of these four, who do you think is most likely to be Romney's running mate?
Post by: Supersonic on July 05, 2012, 08:33:15 PM
Portman absolutely.
Title: Re: Of these four, who do you think is most likely to be Romney's running mate?
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on July 05, 2012, 08:43:04 PM
Some sociopath in a bad suit. Does it really matter which?
Title: Re: Of these four, who do you think is most likely to be Romney's running mate?
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on July 05, 2012, 08:48:05 PM
In order...
1. Portman - from Ohio, (kind of) keeps a focus on economics, makes Romney look interesting in comparison.... and from Ohio.
2. Ryan - this would be the gutsy move, it's a tip of the hat to the further-right, again, economic focus (but would have to dance around his comments about removing $1 trillion), also he's young and could serve in setting up a succession.
3. Pawlenty - might help in the rust-belt... but probably not much. The main reason he's out of contention "Obamneycare".
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4. Jindal - suicide move.
1. Portman - from Ohio, (kind of) keeps a focus on economics, makes Romney look interesting in comparison.... and from Ohio.
2. Ryan - this would be the gutsy move, it's a tip of the hat to the further-right, again, economic focus (but would have to dance around his comments about removing $1 trillion), also he's young and could serve in setting up a succession.
3. Pawlenty - might help in the rust-belt... but probably not much. The main reason he's out of contention "Obamneycare".
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4. Jindal - suicide move.
Title: Re: Of these four, who do you think is most likely to be Romney's running mate?
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 05, 2012, 08:57:08 PM
Ryan.
Title: Re: Of these four, who do you think is most likely to be Romney's running mate?
Post by: All Along The Watchtower on July 05, 2012, 09:25:56 PM
Some sociopath in a bad suit. Does it really matter which?
Good post.
Title: Re: Of these four, who do you think is most likely to be Romney's running mate?
Post by: Lincoln Republican on July 05, 2012, 09:28:22 PM
As I've said all along, Portman.
Pawlenty and Jindal are non starters.
Ryan has too much budget baggage to appeal to swing voters.
Pawlenty and Jindal are non starters.
Ryan has too much budget baggage to appeal to swing voters.
Title: Re: Of these four, who do you think is most likely to be Romney's running mate?
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on July 05, 2012, 09:30:38 PM
I say out of these four, Paul Ryan. But I think Portman, with his experience in both houses, as a trade rep, and being from the necessary state of Ohio, might make a good pick.
Title: Re: Of these four, who do you think is most likely to be Romney's running mate?
Post by: Comrade Funk on July 05, 2012, 10:06:42 PM
Portman...which is meh.
Title: Re: Of these four, who do you think is most likely to be Romney's running mate?
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on July 05, 2012, 10:06:54 PM
As I've said all along, Portman.
Pawlenty and Jindal are non starters.
Ryan has too much budget baggage to appeal to swing voters.
Pawlenty and Jindal are non starters.
Ryan has too much budget baggage to appeal to swing voters.
And I am steadfast in my belief that the necessary state is Florida.
Title: Re: Of these four, who do you think is most likely to be Romney's running mate?
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 05, 2012, 10:11:52 PM
As I've said all along, Portman.
Pawlenty and Jindal are non starters.
Ryan has too much budget baggage to appeal to swing voters.
Pawlenty and Jindal are non starters.
Ryan has too much budget baggage to appeal to swing voters.
And I am steadfast in my belief that the necessary state is Florida.
I think Virginia's the key, but that's just me. Certainly if Obama wins Virginia again he's won a second term IMO.
Title: Re: Of these four, who do you think is most likely to be Romney's running mate?
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on July 05, 2012, 10:18:32 PM
As I've said all along, Portman.
Pawlenty and Jindal are non starters.
Ryan has too much budget baggage to appeal to swing voters.
Pawlenty and Jindal are non starters.
Ryan has too much budget baggage to appeal to swing voters.
And I am steadfast in my belief that the necessary state is Florida.
I think Virginia's the key, but that's just me. Certainly if Obama wins Virginia again he's won a second term IMO.
I think you're right... if VA has gone Obama, this is probably what the map looks like...
(
Title: Re: Of these four, who do you think is most likely to be Romney's running mate?
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on July 05, 2012, 10:22:30 PM
Florida and the blue wall are 271 votes.
Title: Re: Of these four, who do you think is most likely to be Romney's running mate?
Post by: Donerail on July 05, 2012, 10:34:53 PM
Florida will certainly be the closest (except in my dreams, where it's New Mexico), but does that necessarily equate to most crucial?
Title: Re: Of these four, who do you think is most likely to be Romney's running mate?
Post by: Cory on July 06, 2012, 04:03:52 PM
Portman or Jindal I think (voted Portman). I honestly don't get why Pawlenty is being mentioned at this point, what does he bring to the ticket? Never mind "Obamneycare", although I think that saying would come out either way.
I think Jindal can bring more to the ticket then most people seem to think. He's a popular young Southern Conservative Governor who actually is known for being very intelligent and brings some excitement to the ticket. I think he could rally the base (his ethnicity won't matter, it will only help I say). And also let's be honest, Jindal is a good "optic" for the GOP as well. Also, being on the ticket in 2012 could help him get more recognition going into 2016 (If Mitt losses). But we can't assume that, so maybe Jindal would stay off the ticket fearing that he might actually be stuck being Romney's Vice-President.
Side note: I think a problem for Romney could be that if he picks a minority or woman it will be seen as a gimmick to "compete" with Obama being black. Like McCain did in 2008.
I think Portman is the more traditional choice. He's a Midwestern Senator who appeals to conservatives and isn't to "flashy". He could bring balance to the ticket without being seen as some kind of "gimmick" (i.e, Palin 2008). He also has a working relationship with Romney personally, so they kind of "jive", if you will. If I had to bet I would say Portman is the pick.
As for Ryan, I don't know. I think after the 2012 election (especially if Romney wins) there could very well be a serious challenge to Boehner for Speaker. I think Eric Cantor and Paul Ryan are two possibilities. That being said if Romney wind Ryan may deliberately stay away from the position in anticipation of a tough midterm in 2014, if he plans to run for President in 2016.
I'm convinced that Rubio will not be on the ticket and was never seriously considered by the Romney folks. Same for Christie. I really wish the media would stop harping on them so much. At this point I'm sure the short list for Romney's VP is Rob Portman, Bobby Jindal, Kelly Ayotte, and Paul Ryan.
I think Jindal can bring more to the ticket then most people seem to think. He's a popular young Southern Conservative Governor who actually is known for being very intelligent and brings some excitement to the ticket. I think he could rally the base (his ethnicity won't matter, it will only help I say). And also let's be honest, Jindal is a good "optic" for the GOP as well. Also, being on the ticket in 2012 could help him get more recognition going into 2016 (If Mitt losses). But we can't assume that, so maybe Jindal would stay off the ticket fearing that he might actually be stuck being Romney's Vice-President.
Side note: I think a problem for Romney could be that if he picks a minority or woman it will be seen as a gimmick to "compete" with Obama being black. Like McCain did in 2008.
I think Portman is the more traditional choice. He's a Midwestern Senator who appeals to conservatives and isn't to "flashy". He could bring balance to the ticket without being seen as some kind of "gimmick" (i.e, Palin 2008). He also has a working relationship with Romney personally, so they kind of "jive", if you will. If I had to bet I would say Portman is the pick.
As for Ryan, I don't know. I think after the 2012 election (especially if Romney wins) there could very well be a serious challenge to Boehner for Speaker. I think Eric Cantor and Paul Ryan are two possibilities. That being said if Romney wind Ryan may deliberately stay away from the position in anticipation of a tough midterm in 2014, if he plans to run for President in 2016.
I'm convinced that Rubio will not be on the ticket and was never seriously considered by the Romney folks. Same for Christie. I really wish the media would stop harping on them so much. At this point I'm sure the short list for Romney's VP is Rob Portman, Bobby Jindal, Kelly Ayotte, and Paul Ryan.
Title: Re: Of these four, who do you think is most likely to be Romney's running mate?
Post by: WhyteRain on July 07, 2012, 11:22:21 AM
I picked Ryan of Wisconsin.
If Romney can't win Ohio w/o Portman, he's dead anyway. Besides, I saw an article recently that showed that Portman added just one point to Romney in Ohio. Also, Portman is linked to Bush.
Pawlenty would be O.K. if he hadn't invented the term "ObamneyCare". Minnesota -- good, but he was a governor and that would put two governors on the ticket. Actually, having TWO "outsiders" this year might not be bad, considering the reputations of the D.C. politicians.
Jindal -- why? He's another governor -- bad. Louisiana and all of that region are safe for Romney. So what's he got -- dark skin? It'll look like pandering. Of course, OTOH, dark skin got Obama elected ... hmmm ... but Jindal doesn't have a flat nose.
If Romney can't win Ohio w/o Portman, he's dead anyway. Besides, I saw an article recently that showed that Portman added just one point to Romney in Ohio. Also, Portman is linked to Bush.
Pawlenty would be O.K. if he hadn't invented the term "ObamneyCare". Minnesota -- good, but he was a governor and that would put two governors on the ticket. Actually, having TWO "outsiders" this year might not be bad, considering the reputations of the D.C. politicians.
Jindal -- why? He's another governor -- bad. Louisiana and all of that region are safe for Romney. So what's he got -- dark skin? It'll look like pandering. Of course, OTOH, dark skin got Obama elected ... hmmm ... but Jindal doesn't have a flat nose.
Title: Re: Of these four, who do you think is most likely to be Romney's running mate?
Post by: Tender Branson on July 07, 2012, 11:23:17 AM
Out of these ? Ryan.
Title: Re: Of these four, who do you think is most likely to be Romney's running mate?
Post by: Indy Texas on July 08, 2012, 01:16:20 PM
Also, write-in: Louie Gohmert.
Most. Entertaining. Election. Ever.
Title: Re: Of these four, who do you think is most likely to be Romney's running mate?
Post by: You kip if you want to... on July 08, 2012, 03:55:05 PM
Choose Bush's Budget director! DOOOOOOOOOO IT!