Talk Elections

@ppppolls: Eric Hovde has a small lead over Tommy Thompson on the Wisconsin Senate poll we'll release tomorrow


:(

Well, what would expect from a Democrat hack firm?

But seriously, Thompson's support so far in the primary has seemed very soft.

Christ almighty.

What do these ing Teabaggers not get?!

Why would people fret over this ppp poll when the far superior pollster Marquette already released a poll recently?

Average it out and Thompson probably still has an MOE lead. Still he cannot afford to let up until all the primary votes are counted. GE is smooth sailing if Thompson's the nominee.

They also said:


For comparison, 55% of Delaware GOP voters thought Castle was too liberal.

and

Its not going to be easy taking the Senate, so I want the most electable candidate possible to win, that way we can focus elsewhere this fall.

I figured this would happen sooner or later.

"The far superior pollster Marquette" also showed this:

45% Baldwin, 36% Hovde

Are the Republicans trying to let us keep the Senate?

Meh, I think Hovde could probably beat Baldwin too. It'd be a lot easier with Thompson, though.

What exactly is the logic in accepting half of the poll from the far superior pollster Marquette, but not the other half?

Surely if Hovde can come back against a statewide champion like Thompson he can also easily do so against a Dane county extremist.

LOL.

I seriously hope the GOP isn't going to throw away their best chance at this seat, especially when Senate control in the next Congress will be on a knifes edge.

They're going to, as usual.

Now come on, who didn't see this coming a mile away?

I don't think Paul Ryan has endorsed yet. He should come to Tommy's rescue late in the game. The good thing about this poll is that there is a warning and more than enough time to adjust.

The ABT voters are his voters too, he can't do that without seriously depleting home state political capital. Though I'm sure he'll be far from displeased if Thompson wins the primary.

You don't think a lot of those ABT voters weren't against Romney, too? Look who Ryan endorsed. And if he's seriously in the running to be Mitt's number two, there will likely be serious pressure placed on him to endorse Tommy.

PPP Twitter:

Miles, sir, you proved to be correct.

Here we go:

GOP Primary (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WI_070912.pdf)

Fitzgerald- 9%
Hovde- 31%
Neumann- 15%
Thompson- 29%
Unsure- 16%

PPP has them basically tied. Get over it.

You forgot to apply the -5 Miles rule.

We've been over that for a while now.

The Krazen rule applies to PPP and the Miles rule applies to Rasmussen. ;)

But, yes, how silly of me to overlook that.

Horror of horrors! The GOP just might nominate the fellow whom runs a half of point stronger than his main rival! Send out the calvary to head off this pending catastrophe!

PPP poll due out tonight is apparently going to be terrible news for Thompson.  :(

Oh sh**t. I guess Neumann/Fitzgerald totally deflated? I certainly don't have any faith in Hovde to make this 51, which it would definitely be with Thompson.

28-25-25 Hovde/Neumann/Thompson (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/07/close-3-way-contest-for-gop-in-wisconsin.html#more)


Rumors of Neumann's demise have been greatly exaggerated.

I don't know about anyone else, but I've been seeing a ton of Neumann ads online.

looking like Neumann will pull it off, The negative advertising he and the CFG/other groups backing him have been running will probably do the trick.
Of course someone might dig up the ads walker ran against neumann in 2010 and play them nonstop.

Which is weird because he can self-finance. Usually people who invest heavily online lack name ID and/or $$$. Neither of which are the case with Neumann.


PPP: Whew. Still winnable for TT, but 22% undecided is kinda high given everyone's name ID.

Hopefully Hovde and Neumann don't split the vote.

The problem with using Walker is that he gets drawn into this mess, and he's publicly stated he'll be playing referee. And hopefully TT pulls through. Nothing should get in the way of 51.

Well im not saying use him directly just run basically the same ads attacking neumann as being a pelosi stooge [its still a hilarious argument but hey]

Some tidbits from the full release:

-Thompson's favorables have gone way down, from +47 to +6.

-Only 29% think Thompson is conservative enough to 58% who don't.

-Tom Jensen sums it sup pretty well here:

How on earth is he not conservative?

If Thompson has dropped that many points and Neumann is gaining, it looks as if Thompson might end up in third place, albeit narrowly. It's hard to rebound in a short amount of time after losing so many points.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNh2vVrlLdw

Oh, so he's pretty much like every other Republican.

I think Paul Ryan is going to have to swoop in this week...

The GOP might lose the chance to pick up a senate seat because the more electable candidate lost

Can you really say "the more electable candidate" when the opponent is Baldwin?

Plus, it's worth mentioning that Hovde is a moneybags and has a nationwide fundraising network to tap into if that runs low, which is more than enough to make up for a lack of recognition. Also, most of the (not crazy) polls have Hovde doing mildly better than Thompson.

Is Baldwin considered unelectable or something? ???

She's a Dane County union hack socialist lesbian!

Do all the people that say Thompson is more electable really trust Baldwin of all people not to trot this (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkHA9RNVEY8) out for the general election?

You could just feel Thompson's tiny brain trying to handle that question while minimizing what he thought might be the collateral damage.  Hey Tommy, you need to read up on the law. You seem about 30 years behind the curve. Firing folks for sexual preference is as illegal as hell, and has been for a long time.

This is currently the case only in 21 states and DC. The Dems have been trying without success to pass a national bill to this effect.

That's a dumb and bigoted gaffe, but Hovde isn't much better on the gaffe front considering he called her a Marxist not that long ago. I trust the guy who won 4 statewide landslides over someone who's never held elected office and someone else who lost twice statewide. Ron Johnson Hovde isn't.

Calling Baldwin a Marxist is a bigger gaffe then saying "businesses should fire gay people for being gay"?

I said they're both gaffe-prone. Period.

Exactly.  I wish I could channel Bill Buckley and remind you that we need to support the most conservative candidate that can win.  If you were starving on a desert island with nothing to eat but a half loaf of bread, would you complain that you don't have a full loaf and not eat it (and starve to death) or eat it?  What I'm saying is, half a loaf is better than no bread.  I support Thompson, and I really don't think that PPP polls are very reliable since they're a Democratic pollster and have been giving inflated Democrat numbers all throughout this election cycle.  But it still makes me nervous.  Thompson helped pass the first welfare to work bill in the nation and did a lot of other great things as Governor.  Why would people be calling him a RINO or a squish now?

Sad but true.

Apparently MLS will go into the field this week. Let's see what they say.