Talk Elections

Bussinessman Eric Hovde leads former governor Tommy Thompson by 2 points in the GOP primary, 31-29%. Former representative Mark Neumann continues to lose support, as he's gone from 22% four months ago to 15% now. Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald gets 9% of the republican primary vote. In a 2-person race, Hovde would lead Thompson 46-39. Among voters who have herad of him (59%) he leads Thomspon 47-21, so his support may still increase some points.

In the GE, it's a pure toss-up, with representative Baldwin trailing Hovde by one point and tied with Thompson, while leading Neumann and Fitzgerald by 4. Hovde seems to be the only one whom Wisconsin voters see favorably:

Hovde 31
Thompson 29
Neumann 15
Fitzgerald 9

Hovde 45
Baldwin 44

Thompson 45
Baldwin 45

Baldwin 45
Neumann 41

Baldwin 46
Fitzgerald 42

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/07/wisconsin-senate-race-getting-interesting.html

I still want Thompson but Hovde leading Tammy this soon is quite a surprise. And Thompson is apparently only tied with her? This one seems fishy.

I'm having trouble finding the party ID samples on this.

The general election stuff is near the middle of the full report; I passed it up at first.

Its 30D 32R 38I.

2008 was 39D 33R 29I.

Hovde has spent the most money, no one has gone negative, and the primary is like the presidential -- Thompson vs. Anti Thompson.  These numbers keep up and you will see something negative on Hovde from Neumann and/or Thompson.  He's an unknown quantity, so It will be interesting to see how he takes fire from two directions, if this poll is any good.  I still can't believe how good this field of candidates is... wow.        

Not bad at all.

Seems like they should have traded out the Ds for the Is in terms of share of the sample.

Even in 2004, Ds were 32%.

R+2 (32/34/34) is the electorate that PPP had when they put out their junk poll saying that Scott Walker was only leading by 3 points.

D+2 (33/31/36) is the electorate that PPP had when they put out their absolutely laughable junk poll saying that Tom Barrett was leading by 3 points this February.

Ah, but this is a standard general election and not a recall, and will thus have much better Dem turnout.

Unfortunately for you the general election will also have much better Republican turnout.

Not by terribly much. 35% of the recall electorate were Republicans, and Obama was still winning the exit polls. Unfortunately for you, I don't see how you can realistically hope for much better turnout than that.

I am not terribly worried about exit polls that initially showed a 50/50 race when reality turned out to be vastly different.

The reports coming out of the live thread of the Wisconsin recall stated that turnout in Milwaukee and Madison was 'enormous', 'unprecedented', 'approaching 2008 levels', '119%' to quote some liberal posters. Guess what? You still lost.

The GOP has plenty of turnout and probably more than the Democrats. Mr. Hovde merely needs to win the hearts and minds of independent voters by being a man like Scott Walker.

Overall, turnout in the recall was 87% of the Presidential election; that sounds like it was "approaching 2008 levels to me," considering that only 72% of that electorate turned out in 2010.

Yes, if every Republican running for office tries reallly hard, they can all be great saintly people like Scott Walker.

This is like 2010 all over again, except slightly less unexpected.

PPP and Ramsussen are like night and day, expecting different turnouts if this is indeed a low turnout election it is a neutral yr.

So much for Hovde being the less electable candidate ;)

What the......? This does not compute!

I don't trust a poll saying Hovde > Thompson.

Am I reading this right in their release, that Thompson's general electorate favorability rating is 40%, and unfavorability rating is 47%?  What the heck happened to the guy who won his last statewide race by 20 points?  Granted, that was more than 10 years ago, but why would his numbers have tanked that badly?

Not sure where you're getting that from.  Maybe the #'s vs. "someone" more conservative?  He has the highest favorables AND he has high negatives from the very conservatives who would prefer someone MORE conservative.  

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tommy Thompson?
Favorable........................................................ 56%
Unfavorable .................................................... 28%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%


                                                      Base / Tea Party ID
                                                                Yes - No - Not sure
Thompson or Someone More Conservative?
Tommy Thompson                           34% 20% 40% 33%
Someone more conservative          50% 68% 43% 44%
Not sure                                         17% 13% 16% 23%

Edit: I see where you got it.  That 2008 cross tab on page 19 looks all messed up.     

Since when is Tommy Thompson too liberal for the GOP? I can at least understand why Castle lost in the primary, but Tommy Thompson!?

No, those are the numbers for the GOP primary electorate.  The first half of the release is the GOP primary poll, while the second half is the general election poll.  The general election part has:

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tommy Thompson?
Favorable........................................................ 40%
Unfavorable .................................................... 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

PPP's writeup makes that clear, when they say that Thompson's favorability is underwater at -7%.

He isn't.  Age is a factor that combines with the very conservatives hoping for a better option.  The guy is 71 and hasn't been "in" state politics for 10 years.  The Party has moved right since then, but Tommy wasn't "too Liberal" he made shrewd deals with liberals who controlled the legislature most of the time he was governor.  His opponents will say "HE" grew government 100% while in office, when really he bought off dems to get the most 'Conservative' policy innovations of the 80's and 90's done.  Presiding over a booming economy allows you that option.  He lead conservatives out of the wilderness in Wisconsin (like Moses lead the jews out of Egypt), so I don't buy them turning their back on him, they are just exploring options.

The People who oppose Tommy say things like:
"I want some new blood"
"I want someone who can hold the seat for two or three terms" 
"I want a SPENDING cuter, that's not Tommy."

People who support Tommy say:
"I want to win the seat. PERIOD."



Yea I know the distinction, they look messed up.  A guy who is 75%-to-95% likely to have a floor of 51%-to-53% in the general doesn't have a negative 7 approval ratting.  Maybe if you take the 60% of Republicans who aren't supporting him in the primary out of the general approval it makes sense.  You should really add them in though because 95% of them will for sure support him.