Talk Elections

An article published in a Russian newspaper suggests that China's government will launch a war against Vietnam over the South China Sea, both to establish sovereignty over disputed islands and consolidate the support of its public.

While both Beijing and Hanoi are inviting foreign companies to explore the rich natural resources beneath the South China Sea, Moscow appears to have sided with Hanoi rather than Beijing.

Russia's Gazprom, the largest natural gas extractor in the world, has signed a contract with the Vietnamese government to develop resources in disputed areas, triggering protests from Beijing. At the same time, Moscow has provided military assistance to Vietnam's armed forces, importing advanced weapons such as Su-30MK2 fighters, Gepard-class frigates and Yakhont anti-ship missiles.

Russia has also supplied weapons to India, another of China's regional competitors, and took part in the RIMPAC joint naval exercises held by the United States and its allies in the Asia-Pacific. From the Russian point of view, China remains a much bigger threat than Vietnam or even the United States.

Yet the article said that the Chinese government may launch a war against Vietnam simply to consolidate the rule of the Communist Party within the country, where leaders consistently worry about "social stability."

The article said that China is now being isolated by nearly every capital in the region, where six parties claim sovereignty over all or part of the islands and reefs of the South China Sea. Roughly 30 Chinese fishing boats arrived at the disputed Spratly Islands on Sunday, under the protection of Fishery Administration Ship 301, reported China's state-run Xinhua news agency. This fleet consisted of a 3,000-tonne supply ship and 29 other vessels, and will spend the next five to 10 days near the waters of Yongshu Reef, known in English as Fiery Cross Reef.

But China's fishermen are drawing fire, literally, even in the colder reaches of the Northwestern Pacific.

In the waters of the Sea of Japan, it is not the Japanese coast guard being drawn into yet another sea-borne confrontation with suspected Chinese poachers, but the Russians -- one of the few nations in the region that Beijing has worked hard in past years to maintain warm relations with.

On Tuesday, Russian media agencies, such as RIA Novosti, reported that a patrol ship fired warning shots against poachers found within the country's exclusive economic zone, who were flying a Chinese flag. Maps shown on Chinese sites indicate the incident may have taken place to the west of the southern tip of the island of Sakhalin, known for its rich mineral, oil, and wildlife resources.

RIA Novosti says the Chinese vessel was thereafter pursued by the Russian coast guard in a three-hour chase before being fired upon again, disabled, rammed, and finally boarded. Seventeen sailors in the Chinese vessel were captured unharmed, but another was reported to have fallen overboard in the ensuing chaos. Chinese and Russian media report that the missing sailor has not yet been recovered. Survival time for an unprotected swimmer in the cold Northwestern Pacific is very limited.

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Perhaps as their power grows they will decide to start invading countries for fun like we do, but that is yet to be seen.