Talk Elections

It only has 5 electoral votes, so its not a huge deal, but the latest PPP poll has Obama only up 5 points in the Land of Enchantment - 49-44.  Mind you, there is a possibility of Gov. Susana Martinez getting the nod to be Mitt Romney's Running Mate.  She would help out with Latinos and would possibly help in the Southwest including Colorado and may help solidify Arizona.  She has the risk of being compared to Sarah Palin, even though she is nothing like the half-term Alaska Governor.

I still think New Mexico is probably going blue and that Gov. Martinez will not be picked, but I wanted to gauge what other people are saying.

No.

Easy there, bud. One interesting poll does not equal a chance for a Romney win just yet. It certainly draws attention, but let's not get carried away. If we start talking about states as tossups every time leads dip below double digits we'll be insane by election day.

I was echoing www.electoral-vote.com.  I personally don't believe its too much in play, but you never know in this climate.

No, not at all.  Whatever positive Martinez brings is cancelled out by the negatives, like she's a really weak public speaker and doesn't have much experience.  She's a fine governor, but more of an administrator than politician.

NM is a possibility only if there is a severe recession.

If it's a toss-up, Obama has already lost.

No, Gary Johnson will kill Romney there. Its one of the states where he takes from Romney more than Obama. Colorado, on the other hand, is a place where Johnson could hurt Obama...

This.

Nope.

It won't happen, unless the Latino turnout is lower than normal and Martinez is chosen for VP.

New Mexico is a poor state and I am sure that it would not cost much. Thus, it is a possibility for him to attain it but is it the type of place Romney would like to own?

Personally, I think Romney doesn't care if he wins NM or not.  It would be icing on the cake in his favor.

No.

Not a chance.

Lol.... crazy topic

Not even close.

Don't delude yourself like that.

Mitt Romney is doing worse with Hispanic voters than any GOP candidate since Bob Dole. No, no, a thousand times no.

electoral-vote.com is a great thing, but you can't follow it literally like you're following the Bible.

So, the next time you're going to say South Carolina is possible for Obama (just 6% of gap) or, perhaps, Tennessee (just 7%!!!)?

The only reason I brought this up is that New Mexico has a history of being a swing state.  Maybe not so much now, but it does have a history.  South Carolina and Tennessee are generally not considered swing states.

I'd be rather cautious about categorizing swing states. Pennsylvania, for example, is always described as one despite last voting for a Republican in 1988.

I don't consider Pennsylvania to be a swing state.  Could it go Republican? Sure.  PA is a little bluer than Ohio, but not quite as blue as New Jersey.  I know it changes slightly from cycle to cycle, but not a whole lot.  The reason I mentioned New Mexico as a swing state is it went to Bush in 2000 and Kerry in 2004.  To me, New Mexico is like the Iowa of the Southwest.  It is a small state with not too big of an impact on the race as a whole, but still given the right conditions could go either way.

I guess NM is kind of like Iowa. The only difference is that Iowa didn't vote for Obama by over 16 points. New Mexico did. It's going to be incredibly tough to flip that margin of victory, especially when Obama still appears to be winning hispanics at the same rate he did in 2008.

I recently spent a few days in New Mexico.  In retrospect the politics seem to break on racial lines despite no real racial tension.  All Whites I encountered would vote republican if they vote.  All Navajos seemed to be the other way.  Hispanics weren't political, but they seemed susceptible to class warfare.  Odd experience, odd state, it isn't a "no chance", but you would have to spend money to change the status quo and BO would probably outspend you there if you gained any ground.  I could see Obama winning by 4 instead of 16 which is interesting.       

New Mexico is one of those states that can either be a blowout or a nail-biter.  2008 it was a blowout.  2000 and 2004 it was a nail-biter.  I agree, though, if Obama has to spend money in New Mexico, he's toast.

Romney would have to choose Martinez and do an about-face on immigration to win the state. Neither is likely. Though it could be much closer than it was before, especially if Hispanics aren't really motivated to come out and vote.

President Romney in 2016 could win New Mexico, perhaps.

And people call me crazy.

Both will go to Obama.

Romney winning NM is kookoo for cocoa puffs.

agree.

The possibilities of a Romney re-election map in 2016 are actually thrilling. So much could change in our favour.

PA, MI, NH, CO, NV, NM, MN, WI, maybe NJ, long shot CT or Maine.