Talk Elections

Alas, we will never know, but I suspect he will. He certainly will in Salt Lake City.

Obama's base in Utah is probably with California migrants and Hispanic Catholics.

No, he won't win such people anywhere, obviously.

^^^, duh.

What reason would they have for voting for Obama, BRTD?

It's possible that they will swing towards Obama in Utah.

Check out the crosstabs of this survey from the Pew Forum on Religion (http://www.pewforum.org/Politics-and-Elections/Little-Voter-Discomfort-with-Romney%E2%80%99s-Mormon-Religion-1.aspx).

Nationwide, white evangelical voters who are aware of and uncomfortable with Romney's religious beliefs still skew massively against Obama; Romney is winning 78% of them compared to only 13% for Obama. The only difference is that they're a lot less likely to "strongly" support Romney than other Republican voters do, but I doubt these are the sort of people that will swing to Obama under any circumstance.

Will Romney win black gay people in DC? 

I think odds are about the same on the answer to either question being yes.  :)

How many can Romney win with gay mormons?

lol @BRTD pretending that liberal white evangelicals are significant anywhere.

Because he's not a Mormon. In Utah I imagine at least a majority of white evangelicals are ex-Mormons too.


As I noted here (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=155699.0), he probably did in some cities at least. I'd be surprised if he didn't in Minneapolis, or McCain won basically any demographic in San Francisco.

He'll do about as well as Romney will do with the black vote in Washington D.C.

Is an enemy of enemy always my friend BRTD? Now if me is a white evangelical, the answer is obvious in this case.

BK's link is spot-on.  This is a ridiculous suggestion.  Maybe if the question were white Protestants

Are you an evangelical now, BRTD?

Consider how skewed that could be by the south though. Do you think Obama won white evangelicals in Seattle? (I believe he did, like in Minneapolis. I mean if you have a serious problem with gays, then you probably aren't going to live in Seattle or Minneapolis for one.) That makes at least Salt Lake City pretty realistic.


I go to and was baptized in an evangelical church, (that is no doubt voting heavily for Obama), yes.

Am I an evangelical? I suppose that depends on the standard used. I mostly certainly am not by the Barna group standard. I might not be by the Pew standard either, which has white evangelicals quite a bit more conservative than the CNN exit poll standard.

So what are the different standards?

Barna Group's: http://www.barna.org/culture-articles/111-survey-explores-who-qualifies-as-an-evangelical

I'm not sure about Pew, but if it's based simply on self-identification like the exit polls are, it must have some type of different screening method, because the numbers are quite a bit more conservative.

According to the 2008 exit polls, Obama won 24% of white evangelicals nationwide. That sounds low (and is), but if you look at individual states you'll see it's quite skewed by the south, in Minnesota for example he got 35% of white evangelicals (hence my belief he actually won it in the Twin Cities proper, we're certainly 15 points more liberal than the state and then there's the skewing in Michele Bachmann's district and southern suburbs where the number is no doubt quite below 35%.) Sadly I don't think the sample size for Utah is big enough, but it's not a ridiculous premise in SLC at least.

Are you Lutheran by chance? I am and I know that we have a huge population in Minnesota.

Yeah, I was baptized the first time (as a baby) and raised Lutheran.

Me too but I lean more towards the Missouri Synod. That's cool

No, I don't think that he probably did win evangelicals in Seattle.  I really doubt that SLC and Park City have a progressive enough evangelical population to make up for the Protestant population in other counties.  I don't have anything to back this up really, but liberal evangelicals are just a small population.

If Obama got 29% of white evangelicals statewide, why is a majority in Seattle so far-fetched?


Since the Census won't ask religion questions we really don't have any way of knowing, but I doubt that there are too many white evangelicals in rural Utah or BYU-land. But here's the big question: How many of them in Utah are ex-Mormons?

I don't think it's far-fetched, but I know Mars Hill Church is a big evangelical power in Seattle.  I guess I'd like a better sense of how many independent Protestant types identify as evangelicals before I hazarded a guess.  But I'm not sure what the point of the debate is -- we both just have vague intuition and non-representative anecdotal evidence.


I'm not sure; the "Other Christian" population (Utah's biggest non-Mormon population, who don't identify as "Protestant") is nebulous to me.  Are these generi-Christian Park City types, lapsed Mormons who still identify with the Christian faith, progressive Christians of some type, evangelicals, or what?  When we're talking a 10% population (Protestant + "Other Christian") there don't have to be many.  Is the Utah fundie population really that microscopic?  Shrug.

Then again, I guess we've seen exit polls that say the non-Mormon population is heavily Democratic.  I'm not sure what to think, honestly.  The data we have are fairly terrible.

Only 7% of Utahans are evangelical. It also has a relatively high percentage of non-religious, though I'm guessing most of these are probably ex-Mormons and their descendants.

Also, FWIW Obama got around 19% of the Mormon vote in 2008, though that was probably near the high-water mark for a Democrat in UT, and a feat he's obviously not going to replicate this year. Mormons made up 75% of the electorate in Utah, depsite making up only 60% of the state's population. Working backwards using algebra, that means Obama had to have gotten around 79% of the non-Mormon vote to get him to 34% of the vote.

Of course all this begs another question: why do Mormons have such high turnout?

Good question. Perhaps it's because they're part of a religion that's one of the most politically involved. I know they did a lot to help pass prop 8 in California, with many Mormons from other states canvassing in California for the cause. I think the Mormons have been very successful in shaping Utah's politics and they have had influence in other states as well, so they understand the value of being politically active.

Well, after all, if they are not rich, they should still vote for Obama, but they don't, being more consumed by hatred and racism than self-interest.

And as many have pointed out, leftism is a better fit for real Christianity than the right.

I thought you didn't believe in a significant difference between mainline and evangelical, and that the only differences were their positions on gays and abortion.

There are more choices than just voting for Romney or Obama. Conservatives who have a problem with Romney will either not vote or vote third party, or vote for him while holding their nose.

Well yeah, it's kind of tricky without a clear definition of "evangelical" I suppose. The "Other Christians" in Utah are a mixture of all the types you mentioned. How many are properly defined as "evangelical" becomes pretty tricky.


No actually I believe there definitely IS a difference. Just not best to based on those issues, which essentially creates kind of a No True Scotsman. For example is this (http://www.gatheringplaceworshipcenter.org) an evangelical church? It's hard to see in what way it wouldn't fall more into that category than mainline...until you consider it supposedly has a reputation in Austin as a bit of a "gay church". Or for another example what are the Lutheran Congregations in Mission for Christ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lutheran_Congregations_in_Mission_for_Christ)? ARDA qualifies them as evangelical, but they are an ELCA schism, and are basically ELCA except they don't like gays. See the point?

To me an "Evangelical" is just some fancy word for a devout Protestant. I'm probably right.

That definitely doesn't work amongst olds. More accurate amongst youngs, though Nathan is a notable counter-example.

Why won't it work for olds? I thought it would work for everyone.

Most Protestant olds here are mainline, even if they are socially conservative. They are often more conservative than their churches, but stay anyway because olds are kind of stubborn. The ELCA officially endorses a no vote on the marriage amendment, but I think it's obvious how Lutherans who can collect Social Security in rural Minnesota will be voting.

I wonder which state has the largest number of liberal white evangelicals (however those are defined, of course. :P )

Somewhere up North, I would wager. Vermont maybe?

The exit polls didn't cover white evangelicals in Vermont, but I haven't found any state where Obama's numbers amongst white evangelicals is higher than 35% as it is here.