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Title: MO-Mason Dixon: Romney up 9 Post by: krazen1211 on July 27, 2012, 10:51:37 PM http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/mccaskill-trails-all-three-gop-candidates-in-senate-race/article_7dc3f2e4-d84e-11e1-a6e2-001a4bcf6878.html#.UBNcXylr14M.twitter
http://www.stltoday.com/poll-results/pdf_44d876fc-d845-11e1-8152-0019bb30f31a.html Romney 51 Obama 42 Title: Re: MO-Pres: Romney up 9 Post by: timothyinMD on July 27, 2012, 11:52:07 PM Oh boy, a second Missouri poll in three days. Rasmussen will prob poll here in the next two weeks also.
Title: Re: MO-Pres: Romney up 9 Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on July 27, 2012, 11:54:47 PM Entered:
Database link: http://www.stltoday.com/poll-results/pdf_44d876fc-d845-11e1-8152-0019bb30f31a.html (http://www.stltoday.com/poll-results/pdf_44d876fc-d845-11e1-8152-0019bb30f31a.html) Title: Re: MO-Pres: Romney up 9 Post by: NVGonzalez on July 28, 2012, 12:04:38 PM Not saying it is junk (though I think Obama is down by 5 at the most) but both polls came out of firms that have a record of favoring Republicans and/or have worked with Republicans. I also doubt that McCaskill is down by that much if she is really losing.
Title: Re: MO-Pres: Romney up 9 Post by: MorningInAmerica on July 29, 2012, 02:22:24 PM Not saying it is junk (though I think Obama is down by 5 at the most) but both polls came out of firms that have a record of favoring Republicans and/or have worked with Republicans. I also doubt that McCaskill is down by that much if she is really losing. Both times Nate Silver released his pollster rankngs Mason-Dixon was ranked quite high (higher than PPP and Rasmussen). http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/ Given that Rasmussen is finding the same thing, I'd feel comfortable saying Romney's probably leading in Missouri by...oh...I'll say 9 points. I also doubt that McCaskill is down by that much if she is really losing. Polling from multiple pollsters suggest McCaskill really is losing. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/mo/missouri_senate_steelman_vs_mccaskill-1789.html#polls Title: Re: MO-Mason Dixon: Romney up 9 Post by: Umengus on July 29, 2012, 03:36:53 PM if it's tied at national level, Romney + 9 in MO is quite possible.
Title: Re: MO-Mason Dixon: Romney up 9 Post by: MorningInAmerica on July 29, 2012, 03:53:25 PM Party ID of this poll is R+4. 2004 was only R+1, and 2008 was D+6. So yeah, Mason Dixon has a fine track record, but that party ID is a bit hard for this Republican to believe.
Plus, that would help explain Obama's miserable favorability rating in Missouri. Obama - 34/51% Romney 39/27% I would've been more interested in seeing his job rating though. Title: Re: MO-Mason Dixon: Romney up 9 Post by: tmthforu94 on July 30, 2012, 01:16:38 PM Only 66% of folks have an opinion of Romney? That seems awfully low.
I bet Romney wins Missouri around 53-45. Obama will probably completely pull out of the state by Missouri sometime in the early fall. Both Obama and McCaskill are likely done here. Title: Re: MO-Mason Dixon: Romney up 9 Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on July 30, 2012, 04:22:24 PM Only 66% of folks have an opinion of Romney? That seems awfully low. Not really. They explicitly included a neutral option and for those who haven't formed an opinion on him beyond "generic Republican" neutral sounds about right. Title: Re: MO-Mason Dixon: Romney up 9 Post by: Wisconsin+17 on July 31, 2012, 11:38:19 PM Well, that explains it. R+4 vs D+6.
D+6 would have MO as tossup, which sounds about right. |