Talk Elections

Susquehanna Polling & Research

http://triblive.com/news/2287498-74/percent-obama-voters-romney-economy-poll-lead-lee-state-campaign

46% to 43%.

In June, Obama led by five points, 48% to 43%

Great news for Mr. Romney.

I said it once, now i'll say it again. Romney is not gonna take Pennsylvania, he shouldn't waste money there.

Susquehanna is an (R) firm.

Great news would be a lead. Good news would be a tie. D+3 in Pennsylvania is about where we would be if the election as a whole were a tie (ie, this poll is not bad news for Romney).

It's interesting that Romney's number doesn't increase in a lot of polls, even when Obama's decreases.

Yeah, no.

?? So eloquent.

Follow the money. Romney and the RNC have done no advertising in Pennsylvania and Republican Super Pacs very little. If this is really a 3 point race they would be spending heavily.

National Journal advertising figures are wrong.  RNC has been advertising HEAVILY in PA for the last month. I have seen 3 RNC anti-Obama ads over the 3-4 hours I have watched the Olympics. Also, Crossroads went absolutely nuts here in June. Americans for Prosperity and the anti heath care group went on a decent amount a few weeks ago.  And Restore our Future is starting here Monday with ads.  So, if you want to go by the money, PA is close.

Pennsylvania's not going to go to Romney, but I can see Romney having some appeal in the Philly 'burbs that McCain didn't.  Combine that with the fact that Obama is not as popular as most Democrats around Pittsburgh and I can see PA getting within 5-6 pts. 

If this is a stupid question, feel free to physically abuse me. Are there any big media markets in NW Pennsylvania? I've gotten several Romney ads watching the Olympics.

I've seen those ads during the olympics too, and I'm in Texas. They're obviously national buys.

Erie. And yeah, the ads are national. First tv ads I've seen all year.

Maybe the RNC ads are national, but that would be a pretty big buy as the ads (two versions) have been going in PA all of July. Pretty steady too. Mostly cable news and Sunday shows - until this week with the Olympics - now NBC.

The gap is narrowing..........

Romney is moving up in this swing state..........

Speaking of TV markets....here's a great site for keeping track of the ad spending in every region of the country. Courtesy of The Washington Post. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/track-presidential-campaign-ads-2012/

I'm curious what media market my CNN channel is in. Because I've been getting Obama's Romney outsourcing ad here in Canada. And some RNC ads. I would've guessed my channel was coming from New York, but I don't really get why Obama would be spending any money there.

As previously stated, they're national. I get my US feeds from either NY or VT and trust me, OFA isn't spending there.

Erie is the biggest, and it is hemmed in by Cleveland, Youngstown, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and much thinly-populated territory.

It's obvious where the attention is -- Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida involving swing states... and Massachusetts due to the Senate race.

Michigan may not be a legit swing state, but it does have a contested Republican primary for the US Senate seat.   

Generally if you're seeing advertising on a non-basic cable channel (things that aren't Fox, NBC, CBS or ABC), it's a national ad buy. Local ad buys are done of the basic channels.

Actually that site only measures the spending between the pro-Romney and Pro-Obama groups. The reason there seems to be so much advertising in Massachusetts is because the Boston media market is large and covers a big chunk of Southern New Hampshire, which Obama and Romney are actually competing for. You can guarantee they're not competing for votes in Boston.

More likely well away from Boston -- Elizabeth Warren vs. Scott Brown.

I saw an Obama ad on NBC this evening. I think our feed is from Detroit.

Republicans are going for the fools' good in yet another election? (http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=dlzVDDSfeeA)

He is in Montreal and here, in Abitibi, when I had NBC, it was WBZ-Boston (plenty of Sununu and Shaneen ads in 2008, Brown in the special).
I suppose it's the same in the whole of Quebec.