Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2012 Elections => Topic started by: Likely Voter on August 07, 2012, 01:07:18 PM



Title: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: Likely Voter on August 07, 2012, 01:07:18 PM
OH is considered a bellweather state. Last person to win without OH was JFK in 1960. No Republican has ever won without Ohio. But this year polling shows that OH is trending more Dem. The current RCP avg for OH is Obama +4.8, or about +1.3 ahead of the national numbers. This makes OH more Dem than most of the other swing states and indicates that if the race were a tie, OH would be on the Dem side.

Is this just a summer aberration and OH will swing back to its traditional position of leaning GOP?

If not, assuming PA and OH go for Obama, is there a credible path for Romney to win? Any maps?


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: 5280 on August 07, 2012, 01:11:05 PM
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Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: Person Man on August 07, 2012, 01:11:33 PM
Its pretty simple. He'll have to shore up support in places where the Republicans are losing....the same way Bill Clinton was able to.

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He'll just have to win everywhere else where Bush won.




Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: Brittain33 on August 07, 2012, 01:12:06 PM
If Romney can win WI, he has a way. If he doesn't win WI, and I seriously doubt he wins WI while losing OH, then he has to win Nevada. Assuming he wins Iowa in this scenario. It's just not plausible he wins without OH.


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: stegosaurus on August 07, 2012, 01:14:18 PM
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269-269 tie. Assuming the GOP keeps the House, this is a Romney win.

Romney could also win Wisconsin (win outright) in this scenario, theoretically.  That said, I doubt Romney wins WI without also winning OH.


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: Torie on August 07, 2012, 01:14:35 PM
If Romney can win WI, he has a way. If he doesn't win WI, and I seriously doubt he wins WI while losing OH, then he has to win Nevada. Assuming he wins Iowa in this scenario. It's just not plausible he wins without OH.

The odds of Mittens losing Ohio while winning Wisconsin might be around 5%.  


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: Person Man on August 07, 2012, 01:17:27 PM
Though I cannot for the life of me remember where an elected president was knocked off in a nail-biter. I'm pretty sure that the map will either look like this or that unless we really have become a country that divided.

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or

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Romney will win by the same margin McCain lost by doing OK amongst Indies in places like Ohio but really good amongst "Obama Republicans" in places like Colorado, Oregon and even Connecticut.

I just have this feeling that if it goes to Romney, it goes to him through some black swan even in October where he wins big. 


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: RI on August 07, 2012, 01:20:08 PM
Republicans have really screwed the pooch in Ohio. This might be the number one reason why Obama is the odds-on favorite in the election.


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: Likely Voter on August 07, 2012, 03:28:31 PM
Basically Romney's challenge if he loses PA and OH is to win every single other swing state (FL, NC, VA, NH, CO, NV and IA). This gives him 273. It is possible, but odds are tough.
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The 269 tie of losing OH and NH is also a possibility. And maybe the Romney campaign could pick off ME-2 at the end to avoid the hassle (remote).

I really don't see him breaking into any of the next tier of Dem states (PA, NM, WI, MN, MI, OR) while still losing OH and one of the other more swingy states.

Bottom line is that Romney needs to turn things around in OH. If he picks Portman as VP, it would indicate that they also see OH as a problem that needs to be fixed (not that he is going to be able to fix it easily)


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: Supersonic on August 07, 2012, 03:44:58 PM
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269-269 tie. Assuming the GOP keeps the House, this is a Romney win.

Romney could also win Wisconsin (win outright) in this scenario, theoretically.  That said, I doubt Romney wins WI without also winning OH.

If Romney wins without Ohio it'll be like this.

Due to the GOP control of the House, he only needs 269EV's to win.


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: spoilsport on August 07, 2012, 03:59:50 PM
The odds would be enormous against him for the following reasons:

Hard to see a scenario where Romney loses OH, but wins either PA, MI, WI,  or NV.

Obama beat McCain in NV by double digits and he won all those other states
by greater margins than he did OH.

OTOH, I see numerous scenarios where Obama could lose OH and win.


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: pbrower2a on August 07, 2012, 04:39:24 PM
Basically President Obama has far more ways to win, and no single state so far makes the difference. But Mitt Romney has the opposite situation in which he must win a raft of states without losing one.

The situation is much as it was for John McCain, except that Nevada gets polled more often (and is surprisingly steady). That just about offsets the shift of electoral votes away from the Blue Firewall of 2008.

Mitt must win every one of these:

Colorado
Ohio
Virginia
Florida
North Carolina
Missouri

Obama won every one of these in 2008.

These are states different enough that there is no way to have any one campaign pitch that wins them all without reshaping the general race. Any one of them can move independently of each other. (If Indiana, Arizona, or Georgia were in play, then one could be sure that in each respective case Ohio, Colorado, and both North Carolina and Florida have gone for President Obama.

Wisconsin? Iowa? The Governor would have to cheat or induce cheating.

 


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: morgieb on August 07, 2012, 09:33:59 PM
Basically President Obama has far more ways to win, and no single state so far makes the difference. But Mitt Romney has the opposite situation in which he must win a raft of states without losing one.

The situation is much as it was for John McCain, except that Nevada gets polled more often (and is surprisingly steady). That just about offsets the shift of electoral votes away from the Blue Firewall of 2008.

Mitt must win every one of these:

Colorado
Ohio
Virginia
Florida
North Carolina
Missouri

Obama won every one of these in 2008.

These are states different enough that there is no way to have any one campaign pitch that wins them all without reshaping the general race. Any one of them can move independently of each other. (If Indiana, Arizona, or Georgia were in play, then one could be sure that in each respective case Ohio, Colorado, and both North Carolina and Florida have gone for President Obama.

Wisconsin? Iowa? The Governor would have to cheat or induce cheating.

 


No he didn't.

But it looks very hard for Romney to win without Ohio.


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: They put it to a vote and they just kept lying on August 07, 2012, 09:38:37 PM
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Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: President von Cat on August 07, 2012, 09:52:38 PM
The answer is no, because none of these maps are based in reality. Romney will not win Wisconsin while losing Ohio, sorry guys.


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: morgieb on August 07, 2012, 10:17:07 PM

Don't really see Romney winning Wisconsin even if (with?) Ryan as the Veep. There are reasons why it went Obama by 14, and voted Kerry and Gore.


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: pepper11 on August 07, 2012, 10:22:14 PM
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Romney / Ryan (he only needs one of Iowa / NH )


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: President von Cat on August 07, 2012, 10:43:24 PM
Wishful thinking. Ryan only has a House seat, meaning he only has had to run in one district of Wisconsin and not the whole state. There's no reason to believe that the influence from his House seat would put the entire state in play.


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: pepper11 on August 07, 2012, 10:50:50 PM
Wishful thinking. Ryan only has a House seat, meaning he only has had to run in one district of Wisconsin and not the whole state. There's no reason to believe that the influence from his House seat would put the entire state in play.

PPP in July.

Obama v Romney : 50/44
Obama/Biden v Romney /Ryan: 47/46

So yes, there is reason to believe he would put the state in play.


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: President von Cat on August 08, 2012, 01:22:51 AM
Wishful thinking. Ryan only has a House seat, meaning he only has had to run in one district of Wisconsin and not the whole state. There's no reason to believe that the influence from his House seat would put the entire state in play.

PPP in July.

Obama v Romney : 50/44
Obama/Biden v Romney /Ryan: 47/46

So yes, there is reason to believe he would put the state in play.

Nice to know you take PPP seriously after all. (eyeroll)


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: Eraserhead on August 08, 2012, 03:17:02 AM
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269-269 tie. Assuming the GOP keeps the House, this is a Romney win.

Romney could also win Wisconsin (win outright) in this scenario, theoretically.  That said, I doubt Romney wins WI without also winning OH.

I seriously doubt he wins Nevada while losing Ohio.

Anyway, he's likely toast without Ohio.


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: morgieb on August 08, 2012, 03:55:43 AM
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Its tough, but not impossible. On election night I'm watching Virgnia, Florida, and New Hampshire. If Romney can get all three of those, would we like to have Ohio, because that would put Romney at exactly 270. Wisconsin, Michigan, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa...those are all options to look at without Ohio once Virgnia, Florida, and New Hampshire are in the republican column.

Why would he win Michigan without Ohio?


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: opebo on August 08, 2012, 04:40:02 AM
This would be the only remotely realistic map:

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However he is still behind not only in OH, but also in VA, WI, IA, CO, and FL.  Ultimately I do expect him to move ahead in most of those states due to racism, but I think not all.


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: Lief 🗽 on August 08, 2012, 04:57:15 AM
If he's not winning the types of voters he needs to win Ohio, he's not winning them in Wisconsin or Iowa or Pennsylvania neither.


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: opebo on August 08, 2012, 05:19:50 AM
If he's not winning the types of voters he needs to win Ohio, he's not winning them in Wisconsin or Iowa or Pennsylvania neither.

Yeah PA is out of the question, but WI and IA are whiter - he could easily win them.  Obama's weakness is with white-working class, and while there's a nice black minority to balance those lousies in OH, there's almost none in IA and I think not enough in WI.


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: stegosaurus on August 08, 2012, 09:01:29 AM
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269-269 tie. Assuming the GOP keeps the House, this is a Romney win.

Romney could also win Wisconsin (win outright) in this scenario, theoretically.  That said, I doubt Romney wins WI without also winning OH.

I seriously doubt he wins Nevada while losing Ohio.

Anyway, he's likely toast without Ohio.

Nevada is a much better electorate for Romney than Ohio and I think Romney closes the gap by the election. This is a feat I can't see him replicating in a place like Ohio.

Furthermore, Obama is up by ~5 points in Nevada vs ~3 points in Ohio (per RCP averages). So it's not like it's a blowout in one state or the other, both are up for contention.


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: AmericanNation on August 08, 2012, 09:45:23 AM
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Yes he can win without OH.  He than needs VA to have any good odds. 
R's might out preform in Wisconsin by 3 to 4 points for similar reasons to why they're under preforming in Ohio.  With Paul Ryan on the ticket Romney probably wins both anyway.   


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: Donerail on August 08, 2012, 10:27:13 AM
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Without Ohio, Romney loses, and this is assuming that almost every swing state goes for him. I don't really see Romney winning Nevada without a major wave (given current polling has the POTUS +5). The max Romney can get without Ohio and Pennsylvania is an even 300 anyway.

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Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on August 08, 2012, 03:23:07 PM
Seriously, no.

Romney already have a horrific electoral vote deficit and Ohio is one of states he must win to have any hope of reaching 270.


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: MD on August 08, 2012, 03:37:07 PM
I honestly see no path for Romney without Ohio.  I do think the country is polarized.   Today, I see this as a 2004 type of election except that Obama holds on to NV, CO and NM while he gains OH and NH.    I do see IN, NC and FL flipping.

I know people are trying to build a road that leads to a Romney victory without Ohio but I just cannot see that.


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: 5280 on August 08, 2012, 04:09:18 PM
I could see Romney winning all the swing states Obama won in 2008 except Ohio and lose. He'll have to win Wisconsin and Michigan to cover his loss in Ohio to win.


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: tmthforu94 on August 08, 2012, 04:38:41 PM
Romney/Ryan - 273 Electoral Votes
Obama/Biden - 265 Electoral Votes

I actually think this could be possible.

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Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: AmericanNation on August 09, 2012, 07:16:31 AM
Romney/Ryan - 273 Electoral Votes
Obama/Biden - 265 Electoral Votes

I actually think this could be possible.

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I was looking at the same thing.  New Hampshire and the MaineCD without CO is a hail marry, but quite possible as I think Ryan will compliment Romney well in New Hampshire.  He might help in CO (where he is vacationing right now)  and he definitely helps in Wisconsin and Iowa.  The Romney camp thinks they can win Nevada, so that would be another safety valve.    


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: Phony Moderate on August 09, 2012, 07:45:13 AM
If he chooses Paul Ryan and he has enough home state appeal, then this is a possibility:

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Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on August 09, 2012, 08:15:01 AM
OH is considered a bellweather state. Last person to win without OH was JFK in 1960. No Republican has ever won without Ohio. But this year polling shows that OH is trending more Dem. The current RCP avg for OH is Obama +4.8, or about +1.3 ahead of the national numbers. This makes OH more Dem than most of the other swing states and indicates that if the race were a tie, OH would be on the Dem side.

Is this just a summer aberration and OH will swing back to its traditional position of leaning GOP?

If not, assuming PA and OH go for Obama, is there a credible path for Romney to win? Any maps?
Ohio is the ultimate swing state and probably the most evenly divided.  I think the Obama lead is temporary, especially because not many people will be tuned into the campaign until after Labor Day.  I think it's temporary, and as the race heats up, Ohio will get closer.  Of course, there's a chance that won't happen, but I think Obama would win today anyway, both in Ohio and nationally.  But it's still early enough for things to change.  If President Obama does carry Ohio and Pennsylvania, then it becomes absolutely crucial for Romney to carry Florida.  Here are some ways Romney could do it without OH or PA:
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Romney- 273
Obama- 265
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Romney- 298
Obama- 240
Basically, any combination of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Virginia will get him there without Ohio or Pennsylvania.  Of course, all those states are in play, and Minnesota, Maine, Washington, and Oregon could be as well. 


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: AmericanNation on August 09, 2012, 09:27:34 AM
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The plan is to create this situation where Romney only needs 2 of the 5 "big" states.   


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: Likely Voter on August 09, 2012, 10:10:28 AM
I see a lot of reliance on WI to help Romney but neither the Romney campaign, nor Rove or the other GOP superpacs are spending any money in WI. The lists of states where they are spending money is: MI, PA, OH, CO, IA, FL, VA, NV, NC, NH

It is pretty simple. In the case where Obama wins MI, PA and OH, Romney has to win the rest of the swing states where he is competing (FL, VA, CO, NV, NC, NH, IA). In any scenario where Romney has a +1.0 in the PV he should be able to pull that off. That gives him 273, although it has also been noted he doesn't need NH as 269 will also get him a win in the House.

The question is, what happens if the race is Romney +0.1 or +0.5...where are OH and NV in that scenario?


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: AmericanNation on August 09, 2012, 11:08:32 AM
I see a lot of reliance on WI to help Romney but neither the Romney campaign, nor Rove or the other GOP superpacs are spending any money in WI. The lists of states where they are spending money is: MI, PA, OH, CO, IA, FL, VA, NV, NC, NH

It is pretty simple. In the case where Obama wins MI, PA and OH, Romney has to win the rest of the swing states where he is competing (FL, VA, CO, NV, NC, NH, IA). In any scenario where Romney has a +1.0 in the PV he should be able to pull that off. That gives him 273, although it has also been noted he doesn't need NH as 269 will also get him a win in the House.

The question is, what happens if the race is Romney +0.1 or +0.5...where are OH and NV in that scenario?
right,
although their has been some minor superpac spending in SE Wisconsin (as far as I know, maybe elsewhere as well)(so minor I don't remember which one), no spending will do much good until the contentious US Senate primary is over with next Tuesday.  The focus and political "air" gets used up.  I expect after the primary and especially with a Ryan, probably a Pawlenty, and maybe with a Portman Veep announcement their will be spending in the state.     


Title: Re: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?
Post by: sentinel on August 09, 2012, 02:16:26 PM
Basically President Obama has far more ways to win, and no single state so far makes the difference. But Mitt Romney has the opposite situation in which he must win a raft of states without losing one.

The situation is much as it was for John McCain, except that Nevada gets polled more often (and is surprisingly steady). That just about offsets the shift of electoral votes away from the Blue Firewall of 2008.

Mitt must win every one of these:

Colorado
Ohio
Virginia
Florida
North Carolina
Missouri

Obama won every one of these in 2008.

These are states different enough that there is no way to have any one campaign pitch that wins them all without reshaping the general race. Any one of them can move independently of each other. (If Indiana, Arizona, or Georgia were in play, then one could be sure that in each respective case Ohio, Colorado, and both North Carolina and Florida have gone for President Obama.

Wisconsin? Iowa? The Governor would have to cheat or induce cheating.

 


No he didn't.

But it looks very hard for Romney to win without Ohio.

Morgied gotcha there, Missouri went for McCain. Pbrower's point is still valid.