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Title: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on August 09, 2012, 04:02:44 PM President Obama has opened up a 7 point lead nationally, up from 3 points a month ago. He now leads among women, men, and independents.
Romney's unfavorabilities have jumped dramatically, contributing to his loss of ground. And on the question of the economy, Obama leads 48-45. Romney was at 50 in July. Presidential Approval is at 49-48. Article: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/08/09/cnn-poll-obama-holds-7-point-lead-over-romney/ Crosstabs: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/08/09/rel7b3.pdf Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: old timey villain on August 09, 2012, 04:15:57 PM hmm, perhaps that Pew poll wasn't an outlier...
Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on August 09, 2012, 04:24:09 PM hmm, perhaps that Pew poll wasn't an outlier... Kinda weird that he's ahead by 6 among men though. Anyone else? Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: Minnesota Mike on August 09, 2012, 04:24:40 PM hmm, perhaps that Pew poll wasn't an outlier... Bigger outlier, The Pew Poll or the Rasmussen daily tracker? Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on August 09, 2012, 04:25:27 PM So maybe the consensus is that the last jobs report was positive?
CNN usually has good polls, IIRC. Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: Ben Romney on August 09, 2012, 04:35:40 PM LOL another RV and D oversampled poll and the only poll for a long time where Obama wins the Indy votes LOL again - from CNN this time:
PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (CNN/ORC): Obama: 50/47 my numbers: 47.4/52.5 Barack Obama (D-inc) 52% Mitt Romney (R) 45% my numbers: Romney/Obama: 51/48.9 Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: Minnesota Mike on August 09, 2012, 04:38:35 PM LOL another RV and D oversampled poll and the only poll for a long time where Obama wins the Indy votes LOL again - from CNN this time: PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (CNN/ORC): Obama: 50/47 my numbers: 47.4/52.5 Barack Obama (D-inc) 52% Mitt Romney (R) 45% my numbers: Romney/Obama: 51/48.9 Your Numbers? So we all get to make up our own numbers now? Obama 60 Romney 35 Landslide! Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: Ben Romney on August 09, 2012, 05:04:56 PM No Minnesota mike
I am doing this for a several year now and have a impressive record I nailed the race in 2004 every race in 2006 every race (except MO) in 2008 and every race in 2010 (except WA) you can follow my weekly electoral map on facebook: http://www.facebook.com/groups/185054414852195/ It`s all about Party ID!! and it should be a LV and not a RV! It`s the only national poll showing Obama winning the Indy vote but even with that scenario and the right Party ID he would lose! Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: Minnesota Mike on August 09, 2012, 05:14:18 PM No Minnesota mike I am doing this for a several year now and have a impressive record I nailed the race in 2004 every race in 2006 every race (except MO) in 2008 and every race in 2010 (except WA) you can follow my weekly electoral map on facebook: http://www.facebook.com/groups/185054414852195/ It`s all about Party ID!! and it should be a LV and not a RV! It`s the only national poll showing Obama winning the Indy vote but even with that scenario and the right Party ID he would lose! No offense Ben but by election day 90% of the people here could pick the winner in almost every race. There are very few true tossups. A quick look at the RCP polling averages or 538 and everyone is an expert. Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: DrScholl on August 09, 2012, 05:17:59 PM LOL another RV and D oversampled poll and the only poll for a long time where Obama wins the Indy votes LOL again - from CNN this time: PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (CNN/ORC): Obama: 50/47 my numbers: 47.4/52.5 Barack Obama (D-inc) 52% Mitt Romney (R) 45% my numbers: Romney/Obama: 51/48.9 Unless you are a pollster, you can't really have your own numbers. Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: Ben Romney on August 09, 2012, 05:20:31 PM yes maybe but not with the correct numbers and in 2004 many pllsters said Kerrry would be the winner 2006%2008 was easy for President but not the Governor and Senate races!
Problem this year is most polsters using the same party ID like it was 2008 won`t happen. In the best case for the Dems it will be D+2! For now its R+1 Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: Ben Romney on August 09, 2012, 05:21:38 PM Dr. Scholl why not? OK I am the Benny pollster LOL
I dont get paid with that right but I build it! Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on August 09, 2012, 05:24:55 PM yes maybe but not with the correct numbers and in 2004 many pllsters said Kerrry would be the winner 2006%2008 was easy for President but not the Governor and Senate races! Problem this year is most polsters using the same party ID like it was 2008 won`t happen. In the best case for the Dems it will be D+2! For now its R+1 You really need to brush up on your writing skills, because I can't understand a word you're saying. That aside, producing random numbers with stuff that you made up is really unprofessional. Where's the evidence that turnout will be R+1 this year? Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: Lief 🗽 on August 09, 2012, 05:28:29 PM Clearly the Bain attacks have been a massive failure. Obama now leads Romeny by 4.4 points in the RCP polls average, his largest lead since April.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: DrScholl on August 09, 2012, 05:28:37 PM Dr. Scholl why not? OK I am the Benny pollster LOL I dont get paid with that right but I build it! Because you have no real data, but only your opinion on what you would like the numbers to say. Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: Craigo on August 09, 2012, 05:29:22 PM It appears that you have a model, not "numbers." A modeler may decide to weight different poll results for different reasons, but just deciding that turnout will look a certain way and twisting actual poll results to fit that is completely backwards and unprofessional.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: Minnesota Mike on August 09, 2012, 05:30:58 PM It appears that you have a model, not "numbers." A modeler may decide to weight different poll results for different reasons, but just deciding that turnout will look a certain way and twisting actual poll results to fit that is completely backwards and unprofessional. What he said. Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: Beet on August 09, 2012, 05:35:10 PM Well I'm interested (for now). What exactly are the parameters of your model?
I clicked on the facebook link and see a part of the map, but what criteria do you use to construct the map? Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: Ben Romney on August 09, 2012, 05:55:04 PM Dr. Scholl my data r the crosstabs of the pollsters and the party ID of Rasmussen which is the bets in the country! i think on election day it will be tied but from today it`s R+1
the same for the states poll of course! Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: Beet on August 09, 2012, 05:57:41 PM Dr. Scholl my data r the crosstabs of the pollsters and the party ID of Rasmussen which is the bets in the country! i think on election day it will be tied but from today it`s R+1 the same for the states poll of course! What basis do you use to say Rasmussen is the 'best in the country'? Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: Craigo on August 09, 2012, 06:03:34 PM Dr. Scholl my data r the crosstabs of the pollsters and the party ID of Rasmussen which is the bets in the country! i think on election day it will be tied but from today it`s R+1 the same for the states poll of course! Nate Silver on Nov. 4, 2010: "Rasmussen Reports Were biased and inaccurate." They had an average error of 5.5 points during that cycle. Even if they had done well, it's simply not smart to rely so heavily on one source of data. Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: Ben Romney on August 09, 2012, 06:08:07 PM Beet
Rasmussen nailed the party iD in 2004+2006+2008 and 2010 and he nailed since 2004 the national results. His state b state polls are terrible sometimes but on the national level Party ID and presidential race he`s the best!!! Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: Adam Griffin on August 09, 2012, 06:26:14 PM ^^^
This is the same guy who earlier in the year posted a fake poll (one "made" by himself) and tried to pass it off as if it were legitimately conducted by a real pollster. Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: Ben Romney on August 09, 2012, 06:30:27 PM not true it was a joke of a friend of mine and i was falling in. not my fault!
Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: Adam Griffin on August 09, 2012, 06:32:45 PM not true it was a joke of a friend of mine and i was falling in. not my fault! So perhaps you could then explain how such an esteemed pollster as yourself could fall for something that virtually everybody else identified as BS instantly? Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: Ben Romney on August 09, 2012, 06:34:29 PM because it was of a friend!! I am sorry for that!!!
Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: Craigo on August 09, 2012, 06:36:06 PM because it was of a friend!! I am sorry for that!!! ...Is your friend a pollster? Doesn't pass the smell test, sorry. Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: DrScholl on August 09, 2012, 07:03:43 PM Dr. Scholl my data r the crosstabs of the pollsters and the party ID of Rasmussen which is the bets in the country! i think on election day it will be tied but from today it`s R+1 the same for the states poll of course! Short answer: Your numbers are the numbers you would like to see, but aren't the ones in reality. Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: President von Cat on August 09, 2012, 07:08:53 PM Hey guys I just called my sister and mother, and based on this porfessionally administered poll I can predict that Obama is leading by 12 points nationally, and that Utah is "lean Obama".
DONT EVEN THINK ABOUT QUESTIONING ME Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: krazen1211 on August 09, 2012, 07:27:03 PM Plausible. Romney is getting demolished in the minority vote. Thankfully that won't affect the House too much because the minority vote is quarantined.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: Holmes on August 09, 2012, 07:53:20 PM Yes, thankfully it's... "quarantined."
Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: mondale84 on August 09, 2012, 09:09:32 PM Plausible. Romney is getting demolished in the minority vote. Thankfully that won't affect the House too much because the minority vote is quarantined. What??? Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: President von Cat on August 09, 2012, 09:11:06 PM Lets return the favor by putting this hack on ignore.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: pbrower2a on August 09, 2012, 09:42:37 PM Plausible. Romney is getting demolished in the minority vote. Thankfully that won't affect the House too much because the minority vote is quarantined. That means that the minority vote is gerrymandered so that it is concentrated in a few sure=thing districts (that will go 75% or so for the Democrat) so that far more districts can go 57-43 for the Republican. Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: Adam Griffin on August 09, 2012, 09:52:06 PM I'm fully convinced that the majority-minority aspects of the VRA need to be stricken down. It's as if LBJ's racist self planned for this.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: krazen1211 on August 09, 2012, 09:55:29 PM Plausible. Romney is getting demolished in the minority vote. Thankfully that won't affect the House too much because the minority vote is quarantined. That means that the minority vote is gerrymandered so that it is concentrated in a few sure=thing districts (that will go 75% or so for the Democrat) so that far more districts can go 57-43 for the Republican. Yes, it does. See North Carolina, South Carolina, to name 2, which are drawn to enact 4 Democratic districts, and 16 Republican ones at 57-43 or so. Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: DrScholl on August 09, 2012, 10:01:15 PM I'm all for striking down majority-minority districts, they are only being abused for partisan reasons now and it's becoming more problematic than helpful. One party needs those districts more than the other. Strike it down and see who gets quarantined then.
Lets return the favor by putting this hack on ignore. You are so right. Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on August 10, 2012, 12:56:45 AM Plausible. Romney is getting demolished in the minority vote. Thankfully that won't affect the House too much because the minority vote is quarantined. That means that the minority vote is gerrymandered so that it is concentrated in a few sure=thing districts (that will go 75% or so for the Democrat) so that far more districts can go 57-43 for the Republican. Yes, it does. See North Carolina, South Carolina, to name 2, which are drawn to enact 4 Democratic districts, and 16 Republican ones at 57-43 or so. Actually, in South Carolina, without a majority-minority 6th district, then instead of 5 safe GOP, 1 lean GOP, and 1 ubersafe Dem district, we'd have 2 or 3 safe GOP districts with the rest being lean GOP. Absent VRA, we'd have gone 6-0 GOP in 2010 and be likely to go 7-0 GOP this year. However, with more competitive seats, it's probable that the GOP would be forced to moderate a bit. Of course if you'd rather have a more ideologically driven GOP, then this leaving of obtainable seats to the Dems may be just what you want. Title: Re: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45 Post by: CultureKing on August 10, 2012, 02:03:03 AM Plausible. Romney is getting demolished in the minority vote. Thankfully that won't affect the House too much because the minority vote is quarantined. That means that the minority vote is gerrymandered so that it is concentrated in a few sure=thing districts (that will go 75% or so for the Democrat) so that far more districts can go 57-43 for the Republican. Yes, it does. See North Carolina, South Carolina, to name 2, which are drawn to enact 4 Democratic districts, and 16 Republican ones at 57-43 or so. Actually, in South Carolina, without a majority-minority 6th district, then instead of 5 safe GOP, 1 lean GOP, and 1 ubersafe Dem district, we'd have 2 or 3 safe GOP districts with the rest being lean GOP. Absent VRA, we'd have gone 6-0 GOP in 2010 and be likely to go 7-0 GOP this year. However, with more competitive seats, it's probable that the GOP would be forced to moderate a bit. Of course if you'd rather have a more ideologically driven GOP, then this leaving of obtainable seats to the Dems may be just what you want. Agreed. If anything we need to reform the VRA to require non-partisan drawn compact districts. |