Talk Elections

I sort of have similar feelings for this as I do for Colorado, but I'm really not sure.

Obama will take it, as even Bush in 2004 only just squeaked by. I'd put it at around 52%-46% win for Obama. However if the economy tips back into recession, I can see it possibly ending with a Romney victory, especially if he picks a suitable veep (T-Paw maybe?).

It's Romney time.

Romney is just in every sense a terrible candidate for Iowa.

Somehow, I think that Santorum would actually have better chances of winning Iowa than Romney, but it'd be the only state he'd outperform Romney in.

Michigan? Minnesota? Ohio?

Republicans were simply tired of the primary.

I'd say no.

I guess the most I'd give him would be all the Huckabee states, minus Georgia, plus Iowa and maybe Mississippi.

And Obama isn't?

Nope.  Remember, Iowa was one of Michael Dukakis' best states in 1988.  It's still a swing state, though, and the religious conservatives are only powerful within the state Republican Party.  If the election were today, then probably Obama.  However, whether he will on Election Day is anyone's guess.  It's probably the closest swing state right now.
For that matter, blue collar voters would never have supported Santorum, either in the Republican nomination race or the general election (had he made it that far).  He would have been too far-right for them on social issues.

Obama.