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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Congressional Elections => Topic started by: Mr. Morden on August 11, 2012, 03:15:53 AM



Title: WI-1: If Ryan is elected VP....?
Post by: Mr. Morden on August 11, 2012, 03:15:53 AM
Apparently, Ryan can run for reelection for his House seat while simultaneously running for VP.  How safe is his district for the GOP after the redistricting?  How will he do this November if he's spending all his time running for VP?  And, if he wins reelection, but Romney/Ryan also wins nationally, who's likely to run in the special election, and would the Dems have any chance of taking the seat?


Title: Re: WI-1: If Ryan is elected VP....?
Post by: minionofmidas on August 11, 2012, 03:45:18 AM
Apparently, Ryan can run for reelection for his House seat while simultaneously running for VP.  How safe is his district for the GOP after the redistricting?
Not safe. It's a tilt R-ish district that some people were wondering whether it would stay personally safe for Ryan now that he's in the spotlight so, but that the state GOP didn't feel the need to butter up in redistricting.


Title: Re: WI-1: If Ryan is elected VP....?
Post by: krazen1211 on August 11, 2012, 09:16:31 AM
Ryan has stomped his opponents 6 times now, by large margins. When he won that district it had almost none of Waukesha county.


Title: Re: WI-1: If Ryan is elected VP....?
Post by: Torie on August 11, 2012, 09:31:49 AM
Apparently, Ryan can run for reelection for his House seat while simultaneously running for VP.  How safe is his district for the GOP after the redistricting?
Not safe. It's a tilt R-ish district that some people were wondering whether it would stay personally safe for Ryan now that he's in the spotlight so, but that the state GOP didn't feel the need to butter up in redistricting.

Oh, WI-01 got a dollop of margarine - it was Pubbed up by 80 basis points from 1.6% GOP PVI to 2.4% GOP PVI - and in that range, that is a BIG 80 basis points. It's tilt GOP generically. WI-07 up north in contrast has about a dead even PVI.


Title: Re: WI-1: If Ryan is elected VP....?
Post by: Mr. Morden on August 11, 2012, 06:08:21 PM
Ryan will in fact stay on the ballot in his House race this fall:

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/ryan-would-be-able-to-stay-on-ballot-for-reelection-d36f2o1-165826096.html

I wonder how many people in WI-1 will vote for him for Congress but not VP, and vice versa.


Title: Re: WI-1: If Ryan is elected VP....?
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on August 11, 2012, 06:14:58 PM
Ryan has stomped his opponents 6 times now, by large margins. When he won that district it had almost none of Waukesha county.

Why is your choice of language to metaphorically describe electoral or policy victories always violent or S&M-related or both?


Title: Re: WI-1: If Ryan is elected VP....?
Post by: nclib on August 11, 2012, 06:59:46 PM
Apparently, Ryan can run for reelection for his House seat while simultaneously running for VP.  How safe is his district for the GOP after the redistricting?
Not safe. It's a tilt R-ish district that some people were wondering whether it would stay personally safe for Ryan now that he's in the spotlight so, but that the state GOP didn't feel the need to butter up in redistricting.

Oh, WI-01 got a dollop of margarine - it was Pubbed up by 80 basis points from 1.6% GOP PVI to 2.4% GOP PVI - and in that range, that is a BIG 80 basis points. It's tilt GOP generically. WI-07 up north in contrast has about a dead even PVI.

While Ryan certainly won't win by the margins he's won in the past since he's now in the national spotlight, I would assume he would be safe even if Obama carries WI-1, no?


Title: Re: WI-1: If Ryan is elected VP....?
Post by: Mr. Morden on August 12, 2012, 05:29:58 AM
http://www.rollcall.com/issues/57_155/Wisconsin-GOP-Mulls-Replacement-if-Paul-Ryan-Is-VP-215553-1.html

Quote
GOP insiders in the state said there has already been some quiet discussion about who would likely vie to succeed Ryan in a special election, should he get picked by Mitt Romney and the pair win the White House race in November. Presumptive state Speaker Robin Vos and Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus top the list of potential GOP contenders in a district that the party would be favored to hold.
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Priebus, who has wide name recognition as RNC chairman, has deep roots in the district. He was born and raised in Kenosha and served as Wisconsin GOP chairman before taking the national stage. Insiders on the ground in Wisconsin said a Congressional run would be an easy transition for Priebus.

“My personal belief is that Reince Priebus would be a shoo-in. ... Politics is in his blood,” a Wisconsin GOP insider said. “Has he expressed interest? I would have to say no, but people have talked about it.”

Priebus declined to comment.

Small-business man and Kenosha County Board Supervisor Rob Zerban, Ryan’s opponent in the November election, would likely be the leading Democratic contender if a special election were to materialize.


Title: Re: WI-1: If Ryan is elected VP....?
Post by: Holmes on August 12, 2012, 10:22:06 AM
Wow that's premature.


Title: Re: WI-1: If Ryan is elected VP....?
Post by: Meeker on August 12, 2012, 12:50:42 PM
Russ Feingold is from Janesville, too.


Title: Re: WI-1: If Ryan is elected VP....?
Post by: krazen1211 on August 12, 2012, 03:43:02 PM
A random curiosity is that Milwaukee Democrats thought a city of 600,000 deserved 2 Congressional districts rather than 1, back in 2000. They proposed a plan that would have merged Tammy Baldwin and Paul Ryan.

In the end, Sensenbrenner and Obey came up with an incumbent protection plan that dissolved a Democratic held Milwaukee district, moved rural areas out of the 2nd district, and moved Beloit into the 2nd district. 80% Waukesha County areas were added to the 1st district to replace Beloit.


Title: Re: WI-1: If Ryan is elected VP....?
Post by: © tweed on August 12, 2012, 03:58:22 PM
Ryan has stomped his opponents 6 times now, by large margins. When he won that district it had almost none of Waukesha county.

Why is your choice of language to metaphorically describe electoral or policy victories always violent or S&M-related or both?

he used 'stomp' 3 times in five posts


Title: Re: WI-1: If Ryan is elected VP....?
Post by: morgieb on August 12, 2012, 05:23:35 PM
Ummm.....

It'd go to an open seat, where it'd be advantage GOP IMO.


Title: Re: WI-1: If Ryan is elected VP....?
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 12, 2012, 06:09:48 PM
GOP hold.


Title: Re: WI-1: If Ryan is elected VP....?
Post by: J. J. on August 12, 2012, 06:29:34 PM


While Ryan certainly won't win by the margins he's won in the past since he's now in the national spotlight, I would assume he would be safe even if Obama carries WI-1, no?

He might.  Ryan is now seen as a "national" leader.  A lot of people, including Obama fans, want a national leader to cater to their local interests.


Title: Re: WI-1: If Ryan is elected VP....?
Post by: Mr.Phips on August 13, 2012, 09:58:19 AM


While Ryan certainly won't win by the margins he's won in the past since he's now in the national spotlight, I would assume he would be safe even if Obama carries WI-1, no?

He might.  Ryan is now seen as a "national" leader.  A lot of people, including Obama fans, want a national leader to cater to their local interests.

Being a national leader sure didnt help Tom Foley or Tom Daschle.


Nevertheless, Ryan is probably safe in all but a very bad GOP midterm where Democrats put up a decent challenger. 

In a special election early in a Romney administration, Democrats would have a good shot at picking the seat up.  It was carried by Russ Feingold by two points in 2004.


Title: Re: WI-1: If Ryan is elected VP....?
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on August 13, 2012, 10:10:37 AM
Being a national leader sure didnt help Tom Foley or Tom Daschle.

Tom Foley and Tom Daschle were both running in very Republican electorates where being a national partisan figure of the wrong party was a huge negative. Ryan is running in a net Republican electorate in WI-1. There's really not much of a comparison.

This should be a very competitive seat in a special election, though. They're just really weird beasts.


Title: Re: WI-1: If Ryan is elected VP....?
Post by: Mr.Phips on August 13, 2012, 05:54:51 PM
Being a national leader sure didnt help Tom Foley or Tom Daschle.

Tom Foley and Tom Daschle were both running in very Republican electorates where being a national partisan figure of the wrong party was a huge negative. Ryan is running in a net Republican electorate in WI-1. There's really not much of a comparison.

This should be a very competitive seat in a special election, though. They're just really weird beasts.

Foley's district actually wasnt that Republican back in the early 90's.  Clinton carried it in 1992 and Dukakis came within a whisker of taking the district in 1988. 


Title: Re: WI-1: If Ryan is elected VP....?
Post by: SPC on August 14, 2012, 10:32:54 PM
Russ Feingold is from Janesville, too.

cough cough Rod Grams cough cough


Title: Re: WI-1: If Ryan is elected VP....?
Post by: Wiz in Wis on August 15, 2012, 08:36:37 AM
Russ Feingold is from Janesville, too.

cough cough Rod Grams cough cough

Russ grew up in Janesville. He's lived in Middleton for almost 30 years.


Title: Re: WI-1: If Ryan is elected VP....?
Post by: Zioneer on August 15, 2012, 09:02:15 AM
You know, whatever happens in the election, I have a feeling that Rob Zerban is going to get a bunch of unexpected cash. I don't think the Dems can resist having the chance to get rid of Paul Ryan by nationalizing his congressional campaign.


Title: Re: WI-1: If Ryan is elected VP....?
Post by: AmericanNation on August 15, 2012, 09:44:20 AM
You would need a good to great opponent to have a chance at Ryan's CD.  The Dems don't have one, so Ryan will win around 60% or more in the congressional election. 

The real question is if he will run up huge numbers in the presidential race for 'himself'. 
Another question I'm asking is: how much will Thompson run up numbers in the three 'northern' districts and how much will it translate to the presidential race.  You have a plausible scenario where Rs will run up 'large' margins in 6 of the 8 CDs.     


Title: Re: WI-1: If Ryan is elected VP....?
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on August 16, 2012, 03:54:58 PM
Ryan has stomped his opponents 6 times now, by large margins. When he won that district it had almost none of Waukesha county.

The Dems haven't really put A-listers up against him.  He's probably safe for this year, but he could be at risk in 2014 if he doesn't get to be President of the Senate.


Title: Re: WI-1: If Ryan is elected VP....?
Post by: AmericanNation on August 18, 2012, 10:52:30 AM
Ryan has stomped his opponents 6 times now, by large margins. When he won that district it had almost none of Waukesha county.

The Dems haven't really put A-listers up against him.  He's probably safe for this year, but he could be at risk in 2014 if he doesn't get to be President of the Senate.
Can't see that happening.  VERY small possibility.  Dems have no message/ candidate anywhere near Ryan('s).