Talk Elections

General Politics => Political Geography & Demographics => Topic started by: Rhodie on August 12, 2012, 02:40:02 PM



Title: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: Rhodie on August 12, 2012, 02:40:02 PM
Similar type of thread to how would this person vote, but with a state. So to begin....

Mussingee (random name)

Population: 6,709,565
Urban Population: 45%
Major Cities: 2

Demographics:
White: 70%
Black: 24%
Hispanic: 4%
Asian: 1%

Baptist: 29%
Catholic: 24%
Methodist: 11%
Episcopalian: 4%
Other Christian: 14%
Jewish: 3%
No Religion: 9%

Economy
Logging, Mining, Tobacco

Politics
Senate: 1D, 1R
House: 55% R, 45% D
Governor: R



Title: Re: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: freepcrusher on August 12, 2012, 04:53:24 PM
Similar type of thread to how would this person vote, but with a state. So to begin....

Mussingee (random name)

Population: 6,709,565
Urban Population: 45%
Major Cities: 2

Demographics:
White: 70%
Black: 24%
Hispanic: 4%
Asian: 1%

Baptist: 29%
Catholic: 24%
Methodist: 11%
Episcopalian: 4%
Other Christian: 14%
Jewish: 3%
No Religion: 9%

Economy
Logging, Mining, Tobacco

Politics
Senate: 1D, 1R
House: 55% R, 45% D
Governor: R



sounds a lot like South Carolina. An R+8 state give or take.


Title: Re: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: retromike22 on August 13, 2012, 03:01:49 PM
I was going to say it sounded like North Carolina.


Title: Re: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: NY Jew on August 14, 2012, 05:53:49 PM
Similar type of thread to how would this person vote, but with a state. So to begin....

Mussingee (random name)

Population: 6,709,565
Urban Population: 45%
Major Cities: 2

Demographics:
White: 70%
Black: 24%
Hispanic: 4%
Asian: 1%

Baptist: 29%
Catholic: 24%
Methodist: 11%
Episcopalian: 4%
Other Christian: 14%
Jewish: 3%
No Religion: 9%

Economy
Logging, Mining, Tobacco

Politics
Senate: 1D, 1R
House: 55% R, 45% D
Governor: R


way to little info
Catholics are from what country?
how much of a overlap is there between Black and Baptists?
how gerrymandered is the state in the house?
voting age population or total?
Hispanics here legally?
size of major cities?

ext.


Title: Re: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: morgieb on August 22, 2012, 06:59:21 AM
Leans R.

Harbourside

Population: 33,954,245
Urban Population: 90%
Major Cities: 1

Demographics:
White: 81%
Black: 3%
Hispanic: 9%
Asian: 5%

Median Household Income: $77,825

Religion:
Catholic: 39%
Evangelical Protestant: 12%
Mainline Protestant: 24%
Jewish: 3%
Muslim: 2%
Other: 6%
Not Religious: 14%

Educational level: High school (91%), college (54%)

Politics:
Senators: 2 D
House: 33 D, 17 R
Governor: D


Title: Re: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: Miles on August 22, 2012, 02:51:22 PM
Probably D, though perhaps swingy in certain statewide races.


Population: 6.7 million
Urban Population: 38%
Major Cities: 2

Demographics:
White: 84%
Black: 10%
Hispanic: 5%
Asian: 1%

Median Household Income: $44,500

Religion:
Catholic: 29%
Evangelical Protestant: 15%
Mainline Protestant: 37%
Jewish: 1%
Muslim: 1%
Other: 4%
Not Religious: 13%

Educational level: High school (87%), college (36%)

Politics:
Senators: 2R
House: 6 D, 3 R
Governor: D


Title: Re: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: morgieb on August 22, 2012, 06:29:54 PM
Interesting. I think it'd be R but the evangelical and black population seems rather low.


Title: Re: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: All Along The Watchtower on August 22, 2012, 06:56:57 PM
Miles' one would vote R (I think). Could be a Midwestern or Great Plains state, though the evangelical population is rather low, I agree.

Population: 7.4 million
Urban Population: 76%
Rural Population: 24%
Major Cities: 1 major metro area, 4 somewhat smaller cities

Demographics:
White: 62%
Black: 7%
Hispanic: 25%
Asian: 5%
Native American/Pacific Islander: 1%
 
Median Household income: $61, 279

Religion:
Catholic: 33%
Evangelical Protestant: 26%
Mainline Protestant: 21%
Jewish: 1%
Other: 1%
Not Religious: 18%

Educational level: High school (94%), Bachelor's degree (44%), Graduate degree (18%)

Politics:
Senators: 1 R, 1 D
House: 6 R, 4 D
Governor: R


Title: Re: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: morgieb on August 22, 2012, 09:31:26 PM
Trending D, IMO. Kinda reminds me of Nevada.


Title: Re: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: © tweed on August 23, 2012, 12:13:09 PM
New Forebears

Population: 72,809,204
Urban Population: 97%
Major Cities: 93

Demographics:
White non-Hispanic: 37%
Black: 44%
Hispanic: 15%
Asian: 4%

Catholic: 1%
Latter-Day Saint: 30%
Other Christian: 7%
Jewish: 12%
No Religion: 49%

Economy
nuclear weapons manufacturing

Politics
Senate: ??
House: ??
Governor: ?


Title: Re: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on August 23, 2012, 12:28:01 PM
Tweed, the state that you're describing could only exist in Escape from New York.

Strong D, obviously.


Title: Re: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: All Along The Watchtower on August 23, 2012, 12:38:54 PM
Population: 14,243,522
Urban Population: 71%
Rural Population: 29%
Major cities: 6

Demographics:

White non-Hispanic: 81%
Black: 3%
Hispanic: 11%
Asian: 5%

Religion:

Catholic: 30%
Evangelical Protestant: 29%
Mainline Protestant: 21%
LDS: 11%%
Jewish: 1%
Other: 3%
Not religious: 15%

Economy:
Military, defense-related industries, aerospace, telecommunications, internet technology, financial services, insurance, professional services

Median household income: $86,825

Educational level: High school (97%), Bachelor's degree (61%), Graduate degree (20%)

Politics:

Senate: 2 R
House: 14 R, 7 D
Governor: R




 


Title: Re: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on August 23, 2012, 01:19:19 PM
Reminds me of a larger South Carolina, except for the low percentage of blacks. Some kind of cross between South Carolina and Pennsylvania, maybe, although the LDS percentage would probably place it somewhere in the West. Regardless, it's probably consistently and fairly strongly Republican.


Title: Re: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: All Along The Watchtower on August 23, 2012, 01:24:58 PM
Reminds me of a larger South Carolina, except for the low percentage of blacks. Some kind of cross between South Carolina and Pennsylvania, maybe, although the LDS percentage would probably place it somewhere in the West. Regardless, it's probably consistently and fairly strongly Republican.

Yeah I was thinking of the interior West in general-affluent, educated, white, a high LDS percentage, and lots of defense and military jobs.


Title: Re: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: Platypus on August 23, 2012, 05:05:28 PM
Windotchee

Population 3,788,000
Urban 64%
Major cities (500k+) 1
Minor cities (150k+) 4

White 54%
Hispanic 19%
Black 14%
Asian 6%
Amerindian 2%
Mixed/Other: 5%

Catholic 37%
Mainline Protestant 22%
Evangelical Protestant 19%
Jewish 2%
Islamic 2%
Other 3%
No religion 15%

Economy: Services, tourism, minor manufacturing, logging, cereals, military, refining, tertiary education.

High School 93%, Bachelors 51%, Graduate 28%

Median Income ~$63,000

Senate 2 R
House 3 D 2 R
Governor D


Title: Re: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: Nichlemn on August 23, 2012, 11:50:18 PM
Kinda boring if you already give the politics of the state.


Title: Re: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: © tweed on August 24, 2012, 12:55:02 PM
Kinda boring if you already give the politics of the state.


Title: Re: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: Platypus on August 25, 2012, 01:09:42 AM
Sure, if you caqn't recognise that Presidential voting patterns don't follow internal votes.


Title: Re: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: 後援会 on August 25, 2012, 03:48:39 AM
Time for something super-tricky!

Hourai Islands

Population 544,000
Urban 32%
Major cities (500k+) 0
Minor cities (150k+) 0
Cities (50k+) 1

White 19%
Black 2%
Filipino: 30%
Chinese: 10%
Japanese: 3%
Pacific Islander 36%

Catholic 43%
Protestant 33%
Mormon 21%
Other 3%
No religion 0%

Educational level: High school (71%), college (16%)

Economy: Military, Textiles, Military, Tourism, Military, Fishing, Military, Exotic Agriculture, Military

Median household income: $30,126

Politics
Senate: ??
House: ??
Governor: ??


Title: Re: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: morgieb on August 25, 2012, 06:19:00 AM
Seems like Hawaii - Safe D.


Title: Re: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: morgieb on August 25, 2012, 06:25:14 AM
Barberton

Population: 18,603,000
Urban: 99%
Major cities: 1

White (non-Hispanic): 85%
Black: 1%
Asian: 2%
Hispanic: 10%
Other: 2%

Catholic: 23%
Mainline Protestant: 31%
Evangelical Protestant: 10%
Mormon: 14%
Other: 5%
Not Religious: 17%

Educational level: High school (82%), college (25%)

Economy: Gambling, tourism, services, fishing

Median household income: $102,100


Title: Re: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: Nichlemn on August 25, 2012, 08:38:21 PM
Sure, if you caqn't recognise that Presidential voting patterns don't follow internal votes.

They tend to have a pretty high correlation, which makes the exercise less interesting.


Title: Re: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: 後援会 on August 28, 2012, 04:54:43 PM

Ahah, pacific island voting patterns are very interesting. Hawaii is actually an abberation among the Pacific Islands for not being very religious (due to many many more larger Japanese/Chinese).

The Pacific Islands are some of the most religious places on Earth. For example, the Northern Marianna Islands has no Democrats in its lower house and one Democrat in its upper house.


Title: Re: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on August 28, 2012, 05:10:24 PM
Incidentally, koenkai, your name for your state is rather whimsical. I like it. Am I correct in assuming that this 'Hourai' is 蓬莱?


Title: Re: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: 後援会 on August 28, 2012, 05:58:05 PM
Incidentally, koenkai, your name for your state is rather whimsical. I like it. Am I correct in assuming that this 'Hourai' is 蓬莱?

Hey, it was the first thing that came to mind. :P


Title: Re: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: morgieb on August 28, 2012, 06:45:35 PM
Tilly

Population: 15,985,250
Urban: 93%
Major Cities: 0
Smaller Cities: 6

White (non-Hipsanic): 89%
Black: 1%
Hispanic: 3%
Asian: 3%
Other: 3%

Catholic: 24%
Mainline Protestant: 40%
Evangelical Protestant: 13%
Other: 10%
Not religious: 13%

Educational level: High school (91%), college (38%)

Economy: mining, primary industries, manufacturing, logging, financial services, telecommunications, tourism, services, military

Median Income: $75,500


Title: Re: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: NY Jew on August 31, 2012, 02:33:23 AM
hookland


Population: 2,301,000
Urban: 100%
Major Cities: 1
Smaller Cities: 0

White (non-Hipsanic): 59%
Black: 3%
Hispanic: 15%
Asian: 22%
Other: 1%

Catholic: 45%
Jewish 30%
Other/Not religious: 15%
Protestant: 10%


Educational level: High school (85%), college (33%)

Economy: services, financial services

Median Income: $57,000


Title: Re: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: morgieb on August 31, 2012, 04:00:16 AM
Safe D, given most of the whites appear to be Jews.


Title: Re: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: NY Jew on August 31, 2012, 04:20:17 AM
Safe D, given most of the whites appear to be Jews.
I based those numbers on an extremely gerrymandered area only in NYC (every single part of this "state" is connected by either land or water) that voted for McCain by 2 votes (thanks in a large part to that Jewish vote)

the area covers areas in all 5 boroughs.


Title: Re: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: 後援会 on August 31, 2012, 11:37:43 AM
Well, Jews are hardly a homogenous voting bloc. Russian Jews and Orthodox Jews (who I assume pushed McCain over the top) vote very differently from Jews whose families came over in the 1880's.


Title: Re: How would this hypothetical state vote?
Post by: NY Jew on August 31, 2012, 12:07:22 PM
Well, Jews are hardly a homogenous voting bloc. Russian Jews and Orthodox Jews (who I assume pushed McCain over the top) vote very differently from Jews whose families came over in the 1880's.
1. my numbers were assuming that the area in question seceded from NY state.  In actuality this state would be a solid conservative Democratic seat (think Manny Celler) and could go Republican when they go left Like Obama, Weprin, Fidler ext.  The area is demographically trending democrat (may eventually reveres itself due to Orthodox birth rates) but the people are trending Republican

2. there are quite a few Orthodox Jews who's families (at least part of it) came over in the 1880's.   On my father side part of my family might have been here since the 1880's.  My maternal Grandmother was born on the Lower East Side in the teens which is very similar to the avg American Jew Orthodox, or atheist.  The only difference was she stayed Orthodox and they abandoned Judaism.