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Election Archive => 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on August 16, 2012, 12:50:36 pm



Title: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Tender Branson on August 16, 2012, 12:50:36 pm
PPP for DFA (CO-06):

President Barack Obama maintains a lead over GOP candidate Mitt Romney by 9 points with likely voters in Colorado’s Sixth Congressional District. The margin of error for the poll is 3.6%, making his lead well outside themargin of error.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/102957297/CO-6-Poll-numbers-8-15-12


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Tender Branson on August 19, 2012, 12:51:53 am
NY-27 (Siena):

53-41 Romney

49-40 Gillibrand

http://www.wgrz.com/assetpool/documents/120818104901_CD27%20Aug%202012%20Crosstabs.pdf


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Tender Branson on August 19, 2012, 12:55:11 am
The NYT notes that the new re-districted 27th voted for McCain by 53-44:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/03/20/nyregion/new-york-redistricting.html

The district is also 93% White.


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on August 25, 2012, 07:11:31 am
I presume these are Congressional Race polls that also included presidential questions?


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 29, 2012, 12:12:33 am
According to a KING 5 poll, Obama is up 10 in WA-1.  This poll was from a month ago, but I haven't seen any since.  

http://www.king5.com/news/local/KING-5-poll-TV-commercials-boost-DelBene-163966816.html


It's at the very bottom of the article.


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Tender Branson on September 10, 2012, 01:06:16 pm
Siena poll:

Obama leads by 50-45 in the newly drawn NY-21 district.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/sri/CD21%20September%202012%20Crosstabs.pdf

The NYT says that Obama beat McCain by a similar 51-46 margin in this new disctrict:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/03/20/nyregion/new-york-redistricting.html


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Tender Branson on September 13, 2012, 01:21:47 pm
Siena (NY-01):

47-47 Obama/Romney

2008: 51-47 Obama

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/CD01%20September%202012%20Crosstabs.pdf

Siena (NY-24):

55-36 Obama/Romney

2008: 55-41 Obama

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/CD24%20September%202012%20Crosstabs.pdf


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2012, 06:45:38 am
AZ-09/GBA Strategies (D):

President Obama leads Governor Romney here by a 50 – 44 percent margin.

Kyrsten Sinema holds a 4-point lead over Vernon Parker, 45 – 41 percent.

http://images.politico.com/global/2012/09/az09_poll_release_091312.html


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Tender Branson on September 18, 2012, 01:09:57 pm
NY-18 (Siena):

49-45 Romney

Was 52-46 Obama in 2008.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/sri/18th%20CD%20September%202012%20Poll%20Release%201%20--%20FINAL.pdf

WA-01 (SurveyUSA):

47-47 Obama/Romney

I have no clue how this district voted in 2008. Maybe it's even newly drawn.

http://www.king5.com/news/up-front/polls/KING-5-poll-Koster-has-narrow-lead-over-DelBene-in-1st-District-170117796.html


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Tender Branson on September 21, 2012, 06:16:24 am
NY-19 (Siena):

Obama+4

Was Obama+7 in 2008.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/19th%20CD%20September%202012%20Poll%20Release%20Final.pdf


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Torie on September 23, 2012, 11:14:46 am
()
()


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Tender Branson on September 23, 2012, 12:52:32 pm
CA-30 (SurveyUSA):

63% Obama
30% Romney
  2% Johnson

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=cfb7b7d8-1f9a-4998-8ff0-6d217daf1725

Does anyone know how this new district voted in 2008 ?


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on September 23, 2012, 01:59:58 pm
CA-30 (SurveyUSA):

63% Obama
30% Romney
  2% Johnson

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=cfb7b7d8-1f9a-4998-8ff0-6d217daf1725

Does anyone know how this new district voted in 2008 ?
66-31.


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on September 25, 2012, 04:23:53 am
Here's a map for the districts polled:

()


Sue me if I don't use the latest poll for WA-1, but the district was basically +15% Obama in 2008 so I highly doubt it will be tied this time.   So I went with the PPP poll instead, which was 50%-40% in Obama's favor (which makes a lots more sense considering what the statewide polls are saying).


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on September 25, 2012, 04:25:07 am
We need moar polls!!!


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Tender Branson on September 25, 2012, 05:18:48 am

Here they are:

NY-11 (Siena)

49-45 Obama

Was 50-48 McCain in 2008.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/sri/11th%20CD%20September%202012%20Poll%20Release%201%20--%20FINAL.pdf


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on September 25, 2012, 05:27:19 am

Here they are:

NY-11 (Siena)

49-45 Obama

Was 50-48 McCain in 2008.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/sri/11th%20CD%20September%202012%20Poll%20Release%201%20--%20FINAL.pdf

Wow, so Obama could actually win Staten Island?  Dude.  



Edit: The map has been updated.


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 25, 2012, 05:42:59 pm
Here you have, fuzzy:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=160026.0

IL-08: Obama 53 Romney 40.


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on September 25, 2012, 06:43:18 pm
Here you have, fuzzy:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=160026.0

IL-08: Obama 53 Romney 40.

<3


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on September 25, 2012, 09:21:58 pm
Does anyone have that poll for NE-2 which came out a few days ago?


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Tender Branson on September 25, 2012, 11:58:36 pm
Does anyone have that poll for NE-2 which came out a few days ago?

44-44 tie


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: True Federalist on September 26, 2012, 03:01:33 pm
One of the recent Maine polls had results for the two districts.
https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2320120917191 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2320120917191)

CD 1
    Obama: 58.7%
    Romney: 33.9%
    Johnson: 1.6%
    Undecided: 5.8%
CD 2
    Obama: 47.8%
    Romney: 41.0%
    Johnson: 2.4%
    Undecided: 8.8%


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on September 26, 2012, 05:53:04 pm
Thanks guys, the map has been updated.  :)


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Tender Branson on September 27, 2012, 02:32:46 pm
NY-25 (Siena):

53-39 Obama

Was 58-40 Obama in 2008.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/25th%20CD%20September%202012%20Poll%20Release%201%20--%20FINAL.pdf


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Tender Branson on September 27, 2012, 02:37:22 pm
CA-44/SurveyUSA:

71-19-3 Obama/Romney/Johnson

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=de36efa0-bdcd-40c5-a6da-b5c007b9e7ed


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Lief 🐋 on September 27, 2012, 11:21:28 pm
Someone needs to hurry up and poll Alaska, Wyoming and Delaware.


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Tender Branson on September 28, 2012, 06:27:38 am
NJ-02 (Stockton):

57-35 Obama

http://intraweb.stockton.edu/eyos/hughescenter/content/docs/Stockton%20Polling%20Institute%20-%20CD2-2012sept.pdf

How did this district vote in 2008 ?


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Tender Branson on September 28, 2012, 12:06:37 pm
WA-06 (SurveyUSA):

54-38 Obama

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=01c49a8d-45f2-4fe7-9222-379cd55db6e4


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on September 28, 2012, 12:48:27 pm
NJ-02 (Stockton):

57-35 Obama

http://intraweb.stockton.edu/eyos/hughescenter/content/docs/Stockton%20Polling%20Institute%20-%20CD2-2012sept.pdf

How did this district vote in 2008 ?

It was only about +8% Obama in 2008:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Av8O-dN2giY6dGtYTV8xS2hHcXJnX0pOZkdCU2V1N2c#gid=0


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on September 28, 2012, 12:52:57 pm
In progress:

()


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on September 28, 2012, 12:59:26 pm
So far, the polls show Romney picking up MI-1 and NY-18, while Obama flips NY-11 and FL-26.  Two Obama districts are tied (NY-1 and NE-2).


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: traininthedistance on September 28, 2012, 01:13:15 pm
NJ-02 (Stockton):

57-35 Obama

http://intraweb.stockton.edu/eyos/hughescenter/content/docs/Stockton%20Polling%20Institute%20-%20CD2-2012sept.pdf

How did this district vote in 2008 ?

It was only about +8% Obama in 2008:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Av8O-dN2giY6dGtYTV8xS2hHcXJnX0pOZkdCU2V1N2c#gid=0

This is the sort of district that Dems really need to flip if they ever want to take back the House.  Unfortunately, LoBiondo is very personally popular, and with good reason: he's basically the single most moderate Republican left in the House.  (According to DW-NOMINATE, there is exactly one Republican who is considered more "liberal"- NJ-4's Chris Smith, who is somewhat moderate on economic issues but is also rabidly pro-life.)


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Eraserhead on September 30, 2012, 09:21:03 am
Someone needs to hurry up and poll Alaska, Wyoming and Delaware.

I really want to see Alaska. I feel like we had several polls from there by now in 2008 (maybe I'm wrong though).


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Аverroës 🦉 on September 30, 2012, 09:29:47 am
This poll was released couple of weeks ago. I don't see it on your map, so I'll post it.

Siena (NY-21):

Obama 45 / Romney 40

Same poll shows Owens beating Doheny 49-36


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Gass3268 on October 01, 2012, 01:04:20 pm
Kimball Political Consulting (FL-18):

Obama 52 / Romney 45

http://www.scribd.com/doc/108493145/FL-18-Kimball-Political-Consulting-R-Sept-2012 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/108493145/FL-18-Kimball-Political-Consulting-R-Sept-2012)

McLaughlin and Associates (GA-12)

Romney 53 / Obama 40

http://www.scribd.com/doc/108584702/GA-12-McLaughlin-Associates-for-Lee-Anderson-Aug-2012 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/108584702/GA-12-McLaughlin-Associates-for-Lee-Anderson-Aug-2012)

FM 3 (WI-07):

Obama 52 / Romney 41

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/01/1138244/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-10-1-morning-edition?detail=hide (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/01/1138244/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-10-1-morning-edition?detail=hide)


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: afleitch on October 01, 2012, 01:28:33 pm
The Florida result is good; showing a slight movement towards to Obama.


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 01, 2012, 03:17:17 pm
Thanks Gass, the map has been updated.


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Gass3268 on October 01, 2012, 10:51:01 pm
Some more numbers:

Grove Insight (AZ-02):

Obama up by 7% (no exact numbers given)

http://b.3cdn.net/dccc/4084cbce86dd86d13b_d0m6ii4na.pdf (http://b.3cdn.net/dccc/4084cbce86dd86d13b_d0m6ii4na.pdf)

Stockton Polling (NJ-02)

Obama 57 / Romney 35

http://www.shorenewstoday.com/snt/news/index.php/galloway-twp/galloway-twp-general-news/30175-stockton-poll-has-lobiondo-with-big-lead.html (http://www.shorenewstoday.com/snt/news/index.php/galloway-twp/galloway-twp-general-news/30175-stockton-poll-has-lobiondo-with-big-lead.html)

NRCC (NC-08)

Romney 59 / Obama 38

http://www.nrcc.org/2012/10/01/nrcc-memo-poll-shows-kissells-campaign-sinking-fast/ (http://www.nrcc.org/2012/10/01/nrcc-memo-poll-shows-kissells-campaign-sinking-fast/)


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 02, 2012, 03:09:47 am
So let's see, Obama gains 8 in AZ-2 (flip), and 14 in NJ-2.  Romney gains 6 in NC-8.

The map has been updated.


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 02, 2012, 03:11:11 am
Btw, I decided to put AZ-2 at 40% Dem to be safe.  :P


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Miles on October 02, 2012, 03:13:49 am
The last poll from NC-07 was 61-32 Romney.

The PA-12 poll out a few days ago was 51-46 Romney.


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 02, 2012, 05:27:51 am
This poll was released couple of weeks ago. I don't see it on your map, so I'll post it.

Siena (NY-21):

Obama 45 / Romney 40

Same poll shows Owens beating Doheny 49-36

lol sorry, I don't know how I missed that.  Thank you.  :)


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 02, 2012, 05:49:07 am
The last poll from NC-07 was 61-32 Romney.

The PA-12 poll out a few days ago was 51-46 Romney.

Cool, updating the map now. 


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 02, 2012, 05:57:04 am
Obama up 3 in MA-6 (48%-45%):

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/09/young-guns-poll-tisei-leads-tierney-136922.html


And Obama's up 13 in IL-17 (54%-41%):

http://www.scribd.com/doc/107620193/IL-17-GBA-Strategies-for-Cheri-Bustos-Sept-2012


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 02, 2012, 06:01:57 am
The last poll from NC-07 was 61-32 Romney.

The PA-12 poll out a few days ago was 51-46 Romney.

Awesome, thanks.


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Miles on October 02, 2012, 04:35:14 pm
WI-08 (https://docs.google.com/file/d/0By0RA_Ku1Ewba0oySFlwZjQwaDQ/edit?pli=1)

Romney- 47%
Obama- 46%

NY-20 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=160176.0)

Obama- 53%
Romney- 33%


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Miles on October 02, 2012, 07:12:49 pm
This poll is a bit dusty, from July, (http://images.politico.com/global/2012/07/kentucky_memo.html) but its still seems realistic. Romney was up 53-45 in KY-06.


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 03, 2012, 03:58:31 am
This poll is a bit dusty, from July, (http://images.politico.com/global/2012/07/kentucky_memo.html) but its still seems realistic. Romney was up 53-45 in KY-06.

Thanks, the map has been updated.


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 03, 2012, 03:59:30 am
I wish we could get some polls from Ohio.  


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Miles on October 04, 2012, 12:54:30 am
As usual, I have a few more polls :)

NV-03 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/108857922/NV-03-Global-Strategy-Group-for-DCCC-Sept-2012)

Obama- 47%
Romney- 46%

MI-01 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/108857899/MI-01-Benenson-Strategy-Group-for-DCCC-Oct-2012)

Obama- 48%
Romney- 48%

FL-10 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/108857884/FL-10-Global-Strategy-Group-for-DCCC-Sept-2012)

Romney- 47%
Obama- 47%

NH-01 (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/03/republican-brand-still-dog-food/)

Romney- 47%
Obama- 46%

CA-10 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/109008737/CA-10-Momentum-Analysis-for-Jose-Hernandez-Oct-2012)

Obama- 47%
Romney- 46%


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 04, 2012, 04:24:42 pm
As usual, I have a few more polls :)

NV-03 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/108857922/NV-03-Global-Strategy-Group-for-DCCC-Sept-2012)

Obama- 47%
Romney- 46%

MI-01 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/108857899/MI-01-Benenson-Strategy-Group-for-DCCC-Oct-2012)

Obama- 48%
Romney- 48%

FL-10 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/108857884/FL-10-Global-Strategy-Group-for-DCCC-Sept-2012)

Romney- 47%
Obama- 47%

NH-01 (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/03/republican-brand-still-dog-food/)

Romney- 47%
Obama- 46%

CA-10 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/109008737/CA-10-Momentum-Analysis-for-Jose-Hernandez-Oct-2012)

Obama- 47%
Romney- 46%

Excellent, thanks!


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Gass3268 on October 05, 2012, 11:35:16 am
Lester & Associates for DCCC (FL-2)

Romney 47 / Obama 46

http://www.scribd.com/doc/109100430/FL-02-Lester-Associates-for-DCCC-Sept-2012 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/109100430/FL-02-Lester-Associates-for-DCCC-Sept-2012)


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Mr.Phips on October 06, 2012, 03:16:35 pm
NJ-02 (Stockton):

57-35 Obama

http://intraweb.stockton.edu/eyos/hughescenter/content/docs/Stockton%20Polling%20Institute%20-%20CD2-2012sept.pdf

How did this district vote in 2008 ?

It was only about +8% Obama in 2008:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Av8O-dN2giY6dGtYTV8xS2hHcXJnX0pOZkdCU2V1N2c#gid=0

This is the sort of district that Dems really need to flip if they ever want to take back the House.  Unfortunately, LoBiondo is very personally popular, and with good reason: he's basically the single most moderate Republican left in the House.  (According to DW-NOMINATE, there is exactly one Republican who is considered more "liberal"- NJ-4's Chris Smith, who is somewhat moderate on economic issues but is also rabidly pro-life.)

Well, they took the House in 2006 and 2008 without it.  When LoBiondo retires, Democrats will likely pick up the seat.  It actually has a Democratic history(a Democrat held it from 1974 top 1994) and Democrats have a deep bench there. 


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Tender Branson on October 07, 2012, 12:56:34 am
NY-27 (Siena):

51-42 Romney

Was 53-44 McCain in 2008.

The Buffalo News/WGRZ-TV/Siena College Poll
October 1-4, 2012
633 New York State Likely Voters Congressional District 27
MOE +/- 3.9%

http://www.wgrz.com/assetpool/documents/121006105816_CD27%20October%202012%20Crosstabs.pdf


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 07, 2012, 02:48:37 pm
NY-27 (Siena):

51-42 Romney

Was 53-44 McCain in 2008.

The Buffalo News/WGRZ-TV/Siena College Poll
October 1-4, 2012
633 New York State Likely Voters Congressional District 27
MOE +/- 3.9%

http://www.wgrz.com/assetpool/documents/121006105816_CD27%20October%202012%20Crosstabs.pdf

Huh, that's actually an improvement from the last poll of NY-27.  It showed Romney leading by 12 or something. 


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: GMantis on October 07, 2012, 03:19:34 pm
As usual, I have a few more polls :)

NV-03 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/108857922/NV-03-Global-Strategy-Group-for-DCCC-Sept-2012)

Obama- 47%
Romney- 46%

MI-01 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/108857899/MI-01-Benenson-Strategy-Group-for-DCCC-Oct-2012)

Obama- 48%
Romney- 48%

FL-10 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/108857884/FL-10-Global-Strategy-Group-for-DCCC-Sept-2012)

Romney- 47%
Obama- 47%

NH-01 (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/03/republican-brand-still-dog-food/)

Romney- 47%
Obama- 46%

CA-10 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/109008737/CA-10-Momentum-Analysis-for-Jose-Hernandez-Oct-2012)

Obama- 47%
Romney- 46%
These are the new districts?


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 07, 2012, 06:43:18 pm
As usual, I have a few more polls :)

NV-03 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/108857922/NV-03-Global-Strategy-Group-for-DCCC-Sept-2012)

Obama- 47%
Romney- 46%

MI-01 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/108857899/MI-01-Benenson-Strategy-Group-for-DCCC-Oct-2012)

Obama- 48%
Romney- 48%

FL-10 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/108857884/FL-10-Global-Strategy-Group-for-DCCC-Sept-2012)

Romney- 47%
Obama- 47%

NH-01 (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/03/republican-brand-still-dog-food/)

Romney- 47%
Obama- 46%

CA-10 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/109008737/CA-10-Momentum-Analysis-for-Jose-Hernandez-Oct-2012)

Obama- 47%
Romney- 46%
These are the new districts?

Yep.


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 11, 2012, 10:57:49 am
MN-08 (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bc594ee6-02fe-42a7-bf32-cf0e68318ec7)
Romney - 47%
Obama - 45%

Obama won here 53-45 in 2008...


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Eraserhead on October 12, 2012, 01:46:04 pm
MN-08 (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bc594ee6-02fe-42a7-bf32-cf0e68318ec7)
Romney - 47%
Obama - 45%

Obama won here 53-45 in 2008...

Eek.


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Tender Branson on October 16, 2012, 12:10:55 am
VA-02:

()

How did this vote in 2008 ?

http://www.wvec.com/news/politics/Poll-174230921.html


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 16, 2012, 12:36:28 am
50-49 for Obama in the new boundaries (51-49 in the old ones).

This is actually a really strong result for Obama. If the race is tied here, he should be winning the state overall.


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Devils30 on October 16, 2012, 10:48:17 am
If Obama wins VA-02 he's won the state by at least three.


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Brittain33 on October 16, 2012, 11:15:04 am
VA-2 may have been atypically strong for McCain in Virginia because it's a naval district.


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 17, 2012, 01:09:08 am
VA-2 may have been atypically strong for McCain in Virginia because it's a naval district.

Not really, the old 2nd was 58%-42% for Bush, and it isn't all that different from the new one.



Anyways, I need to update the map!


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 17, 2012, 01:18:29 am
()


lol at Obama winning VA-2 but losing MN-8.


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Tender Branson on October 17, 2012, 12:41:45 pm
TN-04:

56-38 Romney

http://de.scribd.com/doc/110321273/TN-04-Myers-Research-for-Eric-Stewart-Oct-2012

What was the 2008 result here ?


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 17, 2012, 07:09:56 pm
TN-04:

56-38 Romney

http://de.scribd.com/doc/110321273/TN-04-Myers-Research-for-Eric-Stewart-Oct-2012

What was the 2008 result here ?

It was 63%-36% McCain.


Here's a link from Daily Kos on all the disticts:  http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/01/17/1051740/-Daily-Kos-Elections-complete-redistricting-resources?detail=hide


:)


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 17, 2012, 07:35:28 pm
FL-22 is 51%-44% Obama.  Was 57%-43% Obama last time.

http://www.wptv.com/dpp/news/political/lois-frankel-adam-hasner-congressional-race-close-exclusive-wptv-poll-shows


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 18, 2012, 09:44:23 pm


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 18, 2012, 09:44:55 pm
And Romney is now leading in Allen West's new district by 5. 


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: True Federalist on October 19, 2012, 12:34:27 am
Alas, the only likely poll for SC-7, that done by Winthrop University, did not include a Presidential race question.

Plenty of other questions, such as voter opinions on labor unions.
Overall: 27% Favorable, 30% Neutral, 38% Negative
Democrats: 45% Favorable, 36% Neutral, 12% Negative
Republicans: 9% Favorable, 24% Neutral, 63% Negative


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 27, 2012, 03:53:05 pm


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: krazen1211 on October 30, 2012, 10:04:51 am
Romney surges in Nevada in the latest poll!

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1028fb62-ff4a-4f44-aaa1-f8093e463df4



Romney 48
Obama 48


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Badger on October 30, 2012, 11:33:33 am
Romney surges in Nevada in the latest poll!

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1028fb62-ff4a-4f44-aaa1-f8093e463df4



Romney 48
Obama 48

In NV-4 you mean? Get it right.


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Torie on October 30, 2012, 01:17:22 pm
Romney surges in Nevada in the latest poll!

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1028fb62-ff4a-4f44-aaa1-f8093e463df4



Romney 48
Obama 48

In NV-4 you mean? Get it right.

Yes, Badger, that is the good news for you. The bad news is that NV-04 is about three quarters of a point more Dem than the state as a whole (3.44% Dem PVI versus 2.68% Dem for NV as a whole).  :P


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Badger on October 31, 2012, 09:39:23 am
Romney surges in Nevada in the latest poll!

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1028fb62-ff4a-4f44-aaa1-f8093e463df4



Romney 48
Obama 48

In NV-4 you mean? Get it right.

Yes, Badger, that is the good news for you. The bad news is that NV-04 is about three quarters of a point more Dem than the state as a whole (3.44% Dem PVI versus 2.68% Dem for NV as a whole).  :P

"Good news"? I'm merely calling Krazen out on yet another misleading post. Nothing more, nothing less.


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: krazen1211 on October 31, 2012, 01:32:04 pm
Romney surges in Nevada in the latest poll!

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1028fb62-ff4a-4f44-aaa1-f8093e463df4



Romney 48
Obama 48

In NV-4 you mean? Get it right.

Yes, Badger, that is the good news for you. The bad news is that NV-04 is about three quarters of a point more Dem than the state as a whole (3.44% Dem PVI versus 2.68% Dem for NV as a whole).  :P

"Good news"? I'm merely calling Krazen out on yet another misleading post. Nothing more, nothing less.

Haha, what? The thread title is " Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here"

One would expect presidential polls for Congressional districts. Not only is NV-04 a close bellweather, it is nearly 30% of the vote of Nevada!

Of course Romney is surging!


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Tender Branson on November 01, 2012, 12:57:38 am
CA-52 (SurveyUSA):

48-45 Romney

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bda34d6c-8324-4cd9-92d5-3d8a4a9bfc46&c=37

How did it vote in 2008 ?


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 01, 2012, 01:00:02 am
Obama won it 55-43.


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Tender Branson on November 01, 2012, 01:05:17 am

Hmm. That's odd.

A Obama+12 result would imply a Democratic leaning district.

But the sample is actually R+7 in SUSA's poll.

Either this district has become much more Republican with Democrats staying at home, or Obama has won Indies by 2:1 there in 2008 (he is about tied there right now).

Or the poll is wrong ...


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 01, 2012, 01:10:22 am
I don't know, maybe my numbers (from here (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/01/13/1054554/-Presidential-results-by-congressional-district-2011-12)) are wrong? The district's CPVI is only D+1.


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on November 01, 2012, 12:15:27 pm

Hmm. That's odd.

A Obama+12 result would imply a Democratic leaning district.

But the sample is actually R+7 in SUSA's poll.

Either this district has become much more Republican with Democrats staying at home, or Obama has won Indies by 2:1 there in 2008 (he is about tied there right now).

Or the poll is wrong ...
This is San Diego's northern suburbia (some of it within city limits). This kind of place did swing VERY hard in 2008, and is highly likely to be swinging back far above the national average this year.
But probably not that far. To be polling below Romney must be ringing all the Drudge Sirens in Bilbray's campaign office, and is certainly not something I would have expected - or that Bilbray can afford.


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Torie on November 01, 2012, 02:22:40 pm
CA-52 (SurveyUSA):

48-45 Romney

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bda34d6c-8324-4cd9-92d5-3d8a4a9bfc46&c=37

How did it vote in 2008 ?

It's 2008 PVI was Dem 3%, so it went about 56% for Obama, 43% for McCain, or something like that. This should be an area that does trend Pub vis a vis the nation, just like my CD right up the road will.


Title: Re: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here
Post by: Torie on November 01, 2012, 02:25:27 pm
I don't know, maybe my numbers (from here (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/01/13/1054554/-Presidential-results-by-congressional-district-2011-12)) are wrong? The district's CPVI is only D+1.

56-43 (the numbers from the Kos link), makes it a Dem 3% PVI CD based on 2008. It would have had a lower Dem PVI for 2004.