Talk Elections

49-44 Obama

Berkley leads 44-42.

http://images.politico.com/global/2012/08/120816_file_survey_haberman.pdf

If an internal Democratic poll only has the President leading by five in Nevada, surely that isn't exactly good news for him.

Heller is really taking a beating on his votes for the Ryan budget and Medicare.

Standard 5% underpolling factor because of the Hispanics and suckish state GOP applies here.

So, Obama+10 in reality.

It's an internal Democratic poll. I'm bettting if it was really Obama +10, they would have reported that.

An internal Democratic Poll huh. Suspicious.

party id of the sample: D +4
Cnn exit poll 2008: D +8

nevada Registered voters: D +4

Not a bad poll... Rasmussen gave the same 07/24

The fact that Dems underpoll in Nevada should cancel out the fact that it's a partisan Dem poll, IMO.

Just wondering, why do dems tend to under poll?

Elderly latino voters who speak a small amount of English won't be telling people on the phone who they're voting for.

Romney at the Republican floor again as he is in most polling.

Just curious. Any evidence (cites, etc) that Democrats "underpoll" in Nevada? Turnout in Nevada was R+4 in 2004, and as Umengus pointed out, D+8 in 2008. So where are we coming up with this "underpoll" thing (of course, besides your own personal speculation)?

/shrug. I know Reid overperforming the polls in 2010 against Angle fueled it, as he had a much better ground game than her. And I'm sure Obama's gonna have a much better ground game than Romney will in Nevada too, so.

Basically this. Unless they feel very comfortable with the person they are talking to they will not tell. That only happens when they are face to face with someone and that efficiency will double with a fellow Latino. Something I am good with :)

The NV GOP is basically non-existent right now and the demographics has had a dramatic shift.

I would submit that it's not so much underpolling as overperforming due to a very good Democratic political machine in the state, whereas the Republicans there are an absolute shambles.

Even though it's an internal, the Senate numbers are giving me more hope for a pick-up now. IIRC, pretty much everything else has shown Heller+3 or something around that so this is a nice surprise...

Just simple polling analysis.

2010 Senate:
Average of polls a week before election day: R+3.2
Election day result: D+5.74

2010 Governor:
Average of polls a week before election day: R+18.5
Election day result: R+11.75

2008 President:
Average of polls a week before election day: D+7.13
Election day result: D+12.5

More evidence of a very negative week or so for Obama.  Don't get me wrong, I feel quite confident Nevada will hold, but this drop there means our Republican poster's crowing about Florida, Wisconsin, and Ohio is probably not misplaced at all.

Hi! What r the crosstabs for this poll`can`t open the link!!

Unfortunately, you're not missing anything. The link doesn't provide any crosstabs...http://images.politico.com/global/2012/08/120816_file_survey_haberman.pdf ...which always causes my eyebrows to raise.

Nevada is just outside the toss-up column, though given the poor economy in the state, it's probably one that Romney is stupidly letting Obama keep.

Well, it's very common for internals.

How's Mitt Romney not winning here? His dad was hispanic!

Reported.

A lot of illegals in Nevada are stuck. It's sad but true. That's how bad things are there. The Obama Economy is so bad that illegals are trying to get back to Mexico. Could we have a more significant sign of the troubles facing the nation? The Obama Economy cannot continue.