Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: Niemeyerite on August 22, 2012, 05:25:43 PM



Title: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on August 22, 2012, 05:25:43 PM
So, after PP-Euskadi leader, Antpnio Basagoiti, decided that they would not support Patxi Lopez government anymore, Patxi has decided it's time for a new election to take place. He's the first non-nationalist "lehendakari", after 30 years of PNV. Patxi Lopez (PSE-EE/PSOE) won the "lehendakaritza" after finishing 2nd in 2009 elections, with the support of PP and UPyD in the Parliament. In 2009, political parties close to ETA were ilegalized, with only Aralar representing the "abertzale" (nationalist) left. Eusko Alkartasuna, now a part of Bildu, was, by the time, the centre to centre-left party of the nationalist forces.
Now, with the legalization of Bildu, it seems that the election will be PNV vs. Bildu, with PSE a distant 3rd and PP a distant 4th, and, ironically, IU (Esker Anitza in Euskadi) and UPyD are fighting to keep their seats in the Basque parliament, while their percentages are growing fast in the rest of Spain.
Aralar has decided to support Laura Mintegi, Bildu's candidate, while Ezker Batua (formerly supported by IU) will try to keep their seat, too (but it's highly unlikely).

Polls indicate that PNV will win 23 to 25 seats, Bildu 20-23, PSE 14-17, PP 11-13, IU 0-3, UPyD 0-1.



Title: Re: Basque parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Zanas on August 23, 2012, 03:08:47 AM
And what government could come out of that kind of results ?

Is the primary concern for forming majorities the national question or the centre-left spectrum ? I guess we're a bit in a Quebec-like situation ;)

I didn't look into basque politics for a few years, and I didn't know about that Bildu coalition. If I gather this well, PNV is now more identified as right-wing as it had been in the past, and Bildu takes the left-wing place. Could PNV and Bildu have an agreement to rule together or is it just impossible ?



Title: Re: Basque parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Diouf on August 23, 2012, 04:53:24 AM
What about the Amaiur coaliton that fared quite well in the 2011 general election? It seems that Bildu coalition is now the left-wing Basque force, so I guess that's where the parties and voters from Amaiur are at this election?

It looks like the nationalist vote will increase by some, which must be a return to the traditional level after a poor 2009 election. Anger at the central government for the austerity measures, disappointment about a coalition without a nationalist party, and internal problems in the PP-PSOE agreement. Am I right in guessing that these are some of the reasons for the return of the nationalist vote?


Title: Re: Basque parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on August 23, 2012, 04:59:12 AM
Going by the English wiki stubs, Amaiur would appear to be Bildu + Aralar (plus a few splinter groups, and of course Bildu is a coalition of groups itself). Presumably though, Aralar has since joined Bildu.


Title: Re: Basque parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Hash on August 23, 2012, 05:42:22 AM
Good news, obviously.

Bildu = Amaiur (+Aralar, Alternatiba and some other small things) which is know running as 'Euskal Herria Bildu' (EH Bildu). The Bildu coalition has also included EA, Garaikoetxea's old left-nationalist PNV splinter which has, since its 2009 rout, moved closer to the abertzale left. The EH Bildu candidate for lehendakari is Laura Mintegi, a fairly well known Basque author and academic.

It looks like the nationalist vote will increase by some, which must be a return to the traditional level after a poor 2009 election. Anger at the central government for the austerity measures, disappointment about a coalition without a nationalist party, and internal problems in the PP-PSOE agreement. Am I right in guessing that these are some of the reasons for the return of the nationalist vote?

Basically, yeah. In the last general election, Euskadi had already voted counter-current with Spain because the PP actually lost votes and the result was a strong nationalist victory (PNV + Amaiur). The 2009 election came on the heels of the PSOE's massive success in Euskadi in the 2008 general election, and there are certainly some nationalists among those who contributed to Socialist success back then have been voting for the abertzale left since last year. The new abertzale left is much less scary because it is no longer (entirely) a front for ETA, which has anyhow abandoned violence (ETA really wasn't a big deal in the 2011 elections). It can serve as a channel for all sorts of anger, anti-system feelings and left-wing oppositions; and the unpopularity of the austerity measures taken by Madrid have certainly helped.

Patxi Lopez himself isn't reviled or even very unpopular as Lehendakari, but his government is pretty unpopular.

The abertzale's success are based on transfers from some of those who had voted PSE in 2008/2009, for IU in those same years, some votes from the PNV; a considerable amount of votes from non-voters or people who had cast blank ballots pre-2011. At 25%, it certainly is far above the natural 10% or so floor for the radical abertzale left.

I doubt a post-election PNV-EHB formal coalition is an option, it would be very controversial in Spain even if probably not all that controversial in Euskadi itself. I guess the PNV could form a minority administration with EHB backing.


Title: Re: Basque parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on August 25, 2012, 05:36:49 AM
I think the most likely coalition is PNV/PSE.


Title: Re: Basque parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on August 27, 2012, 05:13:40 AM
A PNV-PSE coalition seems a bit unlikely. The relationship between the two parties is not too good after the Ibarretxe and Patxi López governments. PNV and nationalist people in general think that PSE 'stole' the lehendakaritza because they think that the ban of the radical abertzale left (Batasuna and associated labels) altered the 2009 election result. I think that with a strong nationalist majority PNV doesn't need PSE. In the case that EHB could get more seats than PNV, which is possible even if the abertzale left doesn't win the popular vote, the scenary would be more complex.


Title: Re: Basque parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on August 27, 2012, 09:02:46 AM
El Mundo poll:

PNV 24-25 (33,7)
EHB 21-22 (27,3)
PSOE 17 (21,4)
PP 12 (12,8)
IU 0 (2,3)
UPyD 0 (1,1)

La Razón:

PNV: 31.2% (22-25)
EHB: 26.5% (20-22)
PSE: 19.0% (14-16)
PP: 14.1% (11-13)
IU: 3.5% (2)
UPyD: 3.1% (1)

Two biased, conservative polls if you ask me.


Title: Re: Basque parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on August 27, 2012, 10:21:41 AM
The election in Galicia will be on October 21 too. The Galician president renounces to develop a controversial electoral reform.


Title: Re: Basque and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on September 01, 2012, 04:22:22 AM
A map of the 2011 General Election in the Basque municipalities that I found somewhere. Amaiur won almost everywhere in Gipuzkoa (Guipúzcoa in Spanish) and several municipalities in eastern Biscay and northern Álava (Araba in Basque).

()


Title: Re: Basque and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on September 10, 2012, 01:21:24 PM
La Voz de Galicia poll:

PP 43.4% and 39 seats (+1)

PSOE 26.4% and 24 (-1)

BNG 11.5% and 9 (-3)

EU-Anova 6.1% and 3 (+3)

According to this poll Núñez Feijoó could mantain the majority and a new force will appear in the Galician Parliament: Alternativa Galega (Galician Alternative). The latter is a coalition between the Galician branch of IU (United Left) and Anova-Irmandade Nacionalista, a new party lead by the former BNG candidate Xosé Manuel Beiras. The left-wing alliance intends to be a "Galician Syriza". Another group splitted from the BNG is CxG (Compromise for Galicia) that is composed by the former centre-left sector of BNG and other small centrist parties like Terra Galega.


Title: Re: Basque and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 10, 2012, 03:53:45 PM
Important to note that La Voz de Galicia is still alive because of Feijoo's subventions.


Title: Re: Basque and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on September 11, 2012, 08:29:59 AM
This poll is quite strange. Compare the predicted results in La Coruña and Pontevedra with the 2009 result. It seems a bit odd because PP is 0.4% up in the first province and 9.2% down in the second.  On the other hand the EU-Anova coalition will have to be renamed; the name "Alternativa Galega" is registered.

() (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/651/misarchivosrecibidosz.jpg/)

Nation-wide the Celeste-Tel September poll has the following results: PP 34%; PSOE 29.9%; IU 10.8% and UPyD 8.6%.



Title: Re: Basque and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on September 26, 2012, 08:57:44 AM
There is something serious going on in Catalonia, especially after the massive independentist demonstration in Barcelona on September 11, the National Day (Diada) of Catalonia. The President of the Generalitat, Artur Mas, called for new 'constituent' elections :

http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/09/25/inenglish/1348582138_981055.html

Quote
Catalan premier Artur Mas on Tuesday told the region's parliament that he is calling early elections on November 25.

The decision to go to the ballot box before Mas’ mandate is up comes after growing calls for independence for Spain’s richest region and the government of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s rejection of his demands for a fiscal pact under which Catalonia would have the right to levy its own revenues and for these to be divvied out with the state.

A victory for Mas' CiU center-right nationalist formation would give him a mandate to pursue greater control over the Catalan region's affairs.

There are no specific avenues in the Spanish Constitution that allow for the secession of a region. The opposition Socialist Party has proposed amending the Constitution to introduce a fully-fledged federal system along the lines of other European countries such as Germany.

The Rajoy administration has thrown out the idea of a new funding arrangement for all of the regions. Catalan government spokesman Francesc Homs classified as “disconcerting” and “contradictory” the invitation of the Rajoy administration for talks on improving regional funding. He said the appeal for negotiation would not distract Catalan nationalists from their intention of going “our own way.”

Mas on Monday said he intended to present a resolution to the regional assembly that demands that “the people of Catalonia be allowed to freely and democratically decide their collective future.”

However, Homs said Catalonia, which has asked Madrid for an emergency loan of some five billion euros to settle debts maturing this year, was open to talks. “We are not closing the door to dialogue,” he said.


Title: Re: Basque and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Zanas on September 26, 2012, 09:49:54 AM
It has started then... What have they done, seriously...

Funny how the Catalan spokesman is called Homs while starting an administrative civil war... Or not.


Title: Re: Basque and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 26, 2012, 12:57:05 PM
What do the polls says in Catalunya?


Title: Re: Basque and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Hash on September 26, 2012, 02:11:24 PM

I saw a poll a few days ago; CiU and PSOE down a bit from the last election, PP and ICV up a tad, ERC up a bit


Title: Re: Basque and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: YL on September 26, 2012, 02:19:40 PM

There are some listed on the Spanish Wikipedia (http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elecciones_al_Parlamento_de_Catalu%C3%B1a_de_2012).  I don't know how comprehensive the list is, of course.

Haven't there also been polls quite strongly pro-independence?


Title: Re: Basque and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Hash on September 26, 2012, 02:32:51 PM
ftr, here is the poll I referenced:

()

It was for the very right-wing La Razon newspaper, but it doesn't seem too out of whack.


Title: Re: Basque and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on September 27, 2012, 09:13:34 AM

There are some listed on the Spanish Wikipedia (http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elecciones_al_Parlamento_de_Catalu%C3%B1a_de_2012).  I don't know how comprehensive the list is, of course.

Haven't there also been polls quite strongly pro-independence?

The Center for Opinion Studies (CEO), which depends on the Economy Department of the Generalitat, has some polls. Last poll about the question: "Which kind of political entity should Catalonia be with respect to Spain?": independent state 34%, confederal model 28.7% , current status 25.4% and "Spanish region" 5.7% .

More polls in the following link:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_separatism#Polls

About La Razón poll, the PP's best records in Catalonia are 13% of the vote in 1995 and 18 seats in 2010. I think that is more realistic a vote percentage around 10-12%, although it seems that this election will be a sort of plebiscite.


Title: Re: Basque and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 27, 2012, 02:39:39 PM
Hash, I disagree. The poll is reeeally inaccurate, IMHO.

ERC will grow a lot, probably becoming the 2nd party if the PSC crisis doesn't stop before December.

PSC is down a bit, probably will ink even further, because Pere Navarro isn't that known and socialists prefer another candidate (polls say).

PP is obviously down, don't know if only a bit or a lot. I think a lot.

CiU should be way down, since people don't like Mas and his cuts on Health and Education have been really radical. But since he now is the independentist voice, and everything bad that happens in Catalunya is because of Spain, he may still get 60 deputies.

About SI, I'd say they'd get more votes than in 2010, but I think people will vote ERC, instead.

Ciutadans will likely get 1 or 2 more seats in the Parliament, as some ex-voters of PSC and PP may vote for them.

ICV is probably getting better results than in 2010. IU has gone from 7 to 14% on the national level. ICV may get 3-4 more congressmen (they have 10 now).

My prediction: CiU wins with more than 60 deputies, PSC sinks even further (wouldn't be the case with Angel Ros, the mayor of Lleida), ERC almost catches PSC, ICV gets more votes than PP, Ciutadans gets 5 seats and SI won't be in the next Parliament (specially if CUP decides to take part in this election). PxC won't enter the Parliament, I hope.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: YL on September 28, 2012, 12:28:18 PM
Will CiU actually make any moves towards independence (or maybe an SNP-style "devo max" option, or whatever "confederal model" means in that poll) after the election, or is all this talk hot air?


Title: Re: Basque and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on September 28, 2012, 02:44:20 PM
La Voz de Galicia poll:

PP 43.4% and 39 seats (+1)

PSOE 26.4% and 24 (-1)

BNG 11.5% and 9 (-3)

EU-Anova 6.1% and 3 (+3)

According to this poll Núñez Feijoó could mantain the majority and a new force will appear in the Galician Parliament: Alternativa Galega (Galician Alternative). The latter is a coalition between the Galician branch of IU (United Left) and Anova-Irmandade Nacionalista, a new party lead by the former BNG candidate Xosé Manuel Beiras. The left-wing alliance intends to be a "Galician Syriza". Another group splitted from the BNG is CxG (Compromise for Galicia) that is composed by the former centre-left sector of BNG and other small centrist parties like Terra Galega.
Any reason why BNG is down?  You'd think they'd be up right now because of their Basque/Catalan counterparts. 


Title: Re: Basque and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Hash on September 28, 2012, 03:40:42 PM
La Voz de Galicia poll:

PP 43.4% and 39 seats (+1)

PSOE 26.4% and 24 (-1)

BNG 11.5% and 9 (-3)

EU-Anova 6.1% and 3 (+3)

According to this poll Núñez Feijoó could mantain the majority and a new force will appear in the Galician Parliament: Alternativa Galega (Galician Alternative). The latter is a coalition between the Galician branch of IU (United Left) and Anova-Irmandade Nacionalista, a new party lead by the former BNG candidate Xosé Manuel Beiras. The left-wing alliance intends to be a "Galician Syriza". Another group splitted from the BNG is CxG (Compromise for Galicia) that is composed by the former centre-left sector of BNG and other small centrist parties like Terra Galega.
Any reason why BNG is down?  You'd think they'd be up right now because of their Basque/Catalan counterparts. 

As the post you quoted said, the BNG has been going through major internal troubles. The EU-Anova list includes Xose Manuel Beiras, a former (very successful) BNG leader who has been on the losing end of recent leadership wranglings within the BNG (the winners being the current leadership formed by the communistic UPG). It is hard to assign clear ideological labels to the various factions, Beiras could be described as being kind of a New Left-type and the UPG is a bit more Old Left.


Title: Re: Basque and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 28, 2012, 04:16:08 PM
You'd think they'd be up right now because of their Basque/Catalan counterparts. 

Why?


Title: Re: Basque and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Hash on September 28, 2012, 05:41:39 PM
You'd think they'd be up right now because of their Basque/Catalan counterparts. 

Why?

There's this factor as well. I've never really delved into it, but I don't think that Spain's peripheral nationalisms have 'tracked' each other in their surges and ebbs of electoral support.


Title: Re: Basque and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on September 28, 2012, 05:59:44 PM
You'd think they'd be up right now because of their Basque/Catalan counterparts. 

Why?
Cause the austerity is causing the Basque and Catalonian left-wing nationalists to rise in support.  I'm surprised that it's not a similar situation in Galicia. 


Title: Re: Basque and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Hash on September 28, 2012, 06:16:22 PM
You'd think they'd be up right now because of their Basque/Catalan counterparts. 

Why?
Cause the austerity is causing the Basque and Catalonian left-wing nationalists to rise in support.  I'm surprised that it's not a similar situation in Galicia. 

The situation is more complex than that.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 28, 2012, 09:07:58 PM
Regionalist-to-nationalist conservatives in Galicia vote PP, specially in Lugo and Ourense. Politicians like Jose Manuel Baltar represent the regionalist right really well, and, now, they're all member of the PP. But it may not be this way in 3-4 years. Now, there's a corrupt banker, Mario Conde, running as a far-right candidate, and the wife of Baltar is supporting him. He may get some conservative rural votes, thus hurting the PP in Lugo and Ourense.

BNG splitted in three parts: BNG (whose candidate will be Francisco Jorquera, the leader of the party in the national Congress), ANOVA (leaded by Beiras, the former leader of the BNG in Coruña) and CxG (the conservative section of the BNG, plus some small regionalist parties, from the right to socialdemocracy).

IU, a party which always gets poor results in Galicia, asked for a coalition ANOVA-IU ("the Galician Sryza" they call it), and Beiras accepted. CxG, whose base is mainly rural and conservative, could join the coalition, too (and I really don't know why).

BNG, of course, is doing worse than in 2009. In fact, they are probably behind the "Galician Sryza" now, but I'm sure they'll recover and get at least the 12 seats they got in 2009. Jorquera is a good candidate (better, by far, than Anxo Quintana, candidate in 2005 and 2009) and it may get some votes from otherwise socialist voters.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on September 28, 2012, 10:33:49 PM
You'd think they'd be up right now because of their Basque/Catalan counterparts. 

Why?

There's this factor as well. I've never really delved into it, but I don't think that Spain's peripheral nationalisms have 'tracked' each other in their surges and ebbs of electoral support.

     I'd be sort of concerned if they did. What's the point of a nationalist movement if you are joined at the hip with other groups' nationalist movements? ;D


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on September 29, 2012, 03:04:00 AM
Will CiU actually make any moves towards independence (or maybe an SNP-style "devo max" option, or whatever "confederal model" means in that poll) after the election, or is all this talk hot air?

Honestly, I'm clueless. I'd say that the September 11 demonstration is a landmark and the Artur Mas recent move is really serious. When CiU won the last election, Artur Mas stated that the independence was not his goal at that moment ( he told "Ara no toca", that roughly means "now it's not the time"). The central element of the nationalist platform was the "fiscal pact" which means a similar taxation system to the "chartered regime" that works for the Basque Country and Navarre:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communities_of_chartered_regime

Quote
The Statute of Autonomy of the Basque Country, in exercising the right recognized in the First Additional Disposition, created its own autonomous treasury and established its fiscal autonomy. In practice, what this means, is that the historical territories of the Basque Country have the faculty to maintain, establish and regulate their tax systems, including the ability to collect, manage and inspect all State taxes — that is all the taxes established by the central government — with the exception of import duties and the value added tax. The autonomous community then transfers to the central government a specific amount of money, for the management of those competences that the community did not assume, but that are within the central government's scope of action. This amount is known as cupo, "quota", or aportación, "contribution", and the treaty whereby this system is recognized is known as concierto, "treaty", or convenio, "pact".

That regime (the Fueros) has origins in the Middle Ages.

A confederal model could mean the recognition of Catalonia as a nation and a complete decentralization. From XV to XVIII centuries Spain was a personal union of two crowns: Castile and Aragon (with Catalonia as the main element). After the Spanish War of Sucession which ended with the siege of Barcelona, the Catalonian institutions (the medieval Generalitat) were supressed by the Nueva Planta decrees. The National Day of Catalonia conmemorates the anniversary of the surrender of Barcelona (September 11, 1714). Basque Country and Navarre mantained their institutions because these regions were alligned with the Bourbons, while the regions of the Crown of Aragon sided with the old dinasty of the Habsburgs.

Coming back to the present, the following article by Paddy Woodworth in the Irish Times explains very well the situation. I strongly recommend it:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2012/0925/1224324359757.html


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: YL on September 29, 2012, 12:40:56 PM
Thanks for that, Velasco.

There are some nasty-sounding people on the Spanish right.  From that Irish Times article:
Quote
Meanwhile, the far right, which has so far found a curiously comfortable home within Rajoy’s conservative Partido Popular (PP), is reacting to the Catalan challenge with a rhetoric that suggests Cebrián’s “wild beast” is already wide awake and baring its teeth. For example, Martin Prieto, in La Razón, has accused Mas of “high treason”. He added with apparent regret that the Catalan leader “enjoys the advantage of knowing that in these times nobody in Spain gets executed”.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 29, 2012, 12:42:52 PM
There are some nasty-sounding people on the Spanish right.

Another case of the arboreally defecating bear, I suspect.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on September 29, 2012, 03:03:29 PM
Thanks for that, Velasco.

There are some nasty-sounding people on the Spanish right.  From that Irish Times article:
Quote
Meanwhile, the far right, which has so far found a curiously comfortable home within Rajoy’s conservative Partido Popular (PP), is reacting to the Catalan challenge with a rhetoric that suggests Cebrián’s “wild beast” is already wide awake and baring its teeth. For example, Martin Prieto, in La Razón, has accused Mas of “high treason”. He added with apparent regret that the Catalan leader “enjoys the advantage of knowing that in these times nobody in Spain gets executed”.

Oh please, that's pretty standard RW rhetoric in parts of the Spanish press. This was La Razon's front page after the supreme court allowed Bildu to stand in the 2011 local elections:

()

"Eta wins, Spain loses"...  and puts the individual photos of the judge underneath (on top of "Una sentencia lamentable". No translation necessary, right?) and that's the front page.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Hash on September 29, 2012, 03:13:22 PM
Indeed, La Razón is basically an openly far-right newspaper (hence, one who thinks that only Franco understood how to deal with regional nationalism). I guess ABC and the online website Libertad Digital are about as right-wing.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on September 29, 2012, 03:17:55 PM
Indeed, La Razón is basically an openly far-right newspaper (hence, one who thinks that only Franco understood how to deal with regional nationalism). I guess ABC and the online website Libertad Digital are about as right-wing.

Yes, but are you familiar with Intereconomia? It's simply the best, proof that the FOX news formula isn't something restricted to anglo-saxon countries.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on September 29, 2012, 05:33:03 PM
La Vanguardia poll:
() (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/10/cambiosenelmapapolitico.jpg/)

CiU 66-67 (+4/5); PSC 21 (-7); PP 15-16 (-2/3); ERC 13 (+3); ICV-EUiA 12 (+2); C's 4 (+1); SI 3 (-1). No vote percentages provided. The pollster is Feed-back (unknown to me), 1200 interviews between September 21 and 27. Notice that La Vanguardia is a newspaper published in Barcelona regarded as pro-CiU. If the poll is accurate, the parties supporting the September 11 demonstration could win at least 96 seats, more than 2/3 of the Catalonian Parliament. The newspaper also says that almost 84% agree with a referendum and the support for independence is 54.8% (33.5% against and 10.2% undecided). I don't know if La Vanguardia will provide more details tomorrow.

"Eta wins, Spain loses"...  and puts the individual photos of the judge underneath (on top of "Una sentencia lamentable". No translation necessary, right?) and that's the front page.

I'm pretty sure that years of inflamatory rethoric have contributed to fuel the independentist feelings. Perhaps is a very profitable speech in certain parts of Spain but really stupid if you want to make friends in Euskadi or Catalonia.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 29, 2012, 06:32:18 PM
The "right" in Spain is dying. And the centre-right is alive because UPyD is growing. But, by far, the most fasicst newspaper is "La Gaceta" (Intereconomía). La Razçon is a joke newspaper who stands by Rajoy no matter what. They are clowns, not even the sane conservative voter considers them a serious newspaper. ABC is the newspaper of old, conservative people. El Mundo is the only one which I'd consider "OK", and they're the guys who still say 11-M was caused by ETA and not Al-Qaida.

My father, the typical centre-left voter who doesn't like communists and hates PP, reads El País, and sometimes La Vanguardia. La Vanguardia is a good newspaper, related to CiU but not that flawed. And they've released some good polls before. I trust this poll, but probably with ERC stronger and PP and CiU lower. But anything can happen until December.

And Montserrat Tura will challenge Pere Navarro for the nomination, This means:

1) If Tura, the "regionalist" option, wins, PSC may get more than 25 seats. She was the only popular politician from the "Tripartito", but lost to Jordi Hereu in last year primaries for Barcelona local elections.

2) If Navarro, the "federalist", wins by less than 10 points... Expect PSC to have devastating results.

3) If Navarro wins confortably, he may get from 20 to 25 seats... But could still get less than 20 seats.

And the best option is... Both of them decide to stop this nonsense and urge Lleida mayor, Angel Ros, to run. We could be talking about 30 seats with him as our candidate. But he may be too nationalist for PSC taste in the provinces of Barcelona and Tarragona.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on September 30, 2012, 07:39:51 AM
El Mundo poll:

() (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/854/encuestaem.jpg/)

Pere Navarro, mayor of Terrassa and current leader of the party, will be the PSC candidate. He defeated Montserrat Tura, the candidate of the 'catalanist' faction, by a comfortable margin (73% of the delegates). Tura and Ernest Maragall will not be in the PSC list in the next election. Ernest Maragall is the brother of the former President Pasqual Maragall and grandson of Joan Maragall, a Catalan poet. He was conseller (regional minister) of Education and the deputy who broke the party's discipline:

Quote
The Catalan regional assembly approved a resolution on Thursday afternoon to hold a referendum on self-determination, as its general policy debate wound down to a close. The motion was supported by 84 deputies in the 135-seat house, from the ruling center-right nationalist CiU coalition, Iniciativa per Catalunya,Esquerra Unida and Solidaritat, as well as getting a vote apiece from the single-seat Democràcia Catalana party of the former president of FC Barcelona, Joan Laporta, and renegade Socialist deputy Ernest Maragall.


http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/09/27/inenglish/1348774590_743204.html



Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 30, 2012, 12:19:01 PM
As Dani said, Navarro has won the nomination 73-23%. He was expected to win, but this was a huge victory, probably because some catalanists, like Angel Ros, decided to support Navarro again, as they did last year. Tura has supported him, and may be already thinking about running in 4 years, in an open primary. Angel Ros is open to being the leader of the PSC in the province of Lleida. This will help Navarro, certainly.
So, if yesterday I predicted 20-25 seats for the PSC, I go for the 25-30 option now, as this was a great Sunday for Navarro, and he will be helped by some nationalist socialists. But, anything could happen, Navarro is as boring as Montilla and ICV may still steal some socialist voters, as they candidate is popular among lefties, nationalists, federalists, 15-M crowd... Joan Herrera is a good candidate, PSC'd better make a good campaign, because they can continue losing votes.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on September 30, 2012, 01:20:51 PM
Another poll, this time from El Periódico de Catalunya:

() (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/820/encuestaep.jpg/)


This poll shows ERC in the 3rd place with 17-18 seats and PP in the 4th with only 12-13, terrible PSC's performance and ICV's stagnation. Trust who you want. On the other hand it's remarkable the demoscopic silence in the Basque Country. Fear of an Euskal Herria Bildu's victory as someone suggest or maybe it's only the crisis?

Julio, I read this article in El País: "Who is who in the PSC". Do you know anything about Rocío Martínez-Sampere?
http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2012/09/28/catalunya/1348846823_566461.html


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 30, 2012, 04:50:37 PM
I trust this poll. As I've always thought, ERC is very strong, PSC and PP very weak. I think PSC will recover a bit now.

About the article, I read that this afternoon, too. And I dind't know who she was, but after reading what the article said about her, I googled "Rocio Martinez-Sampere" and read the Catalonian Wikipedia entry about her haha... She seemed dumb in the photo ElPais chose for her, but she's cute and young. Expect her to become something important in the future :)


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Zanas on October 04, 2012, 04:10:20 AM
and he will be helped by some nationalist socialists.
I couldn't help but shudder reading this. It's strange to see these words associated in a kind of progressist context...


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 04, 2012, 06:59:06 PM
I trust this poll. As I've always thought, ERC is very strong, PSC and PP very weak. I think PSC will recover a bit now.

ERC failed to reach an agreement with the other independentist forces: Solidaritat (SI), Reagrupament Independentista (RI) and the very left-wing Popular Unity Candidatures (CUP). The deputy Joan Laporta, former president of the FC Barcelona and SI head of list who left the party, was regarded the 63th deputy of CiU during the Legislature and is supposed to support Mas. Some people say that RI will do the same. The CUP will decide on October 13 if they run for the election, in that case it would be the first time because this group only stood for municipal elections (with some success in 2011).

and he will be helped by some nationalist socialists.
I couldn't help but shudder reading this. It's strange to see these words associated in a kind of progressist context...

At least nationalism in Catalonia has not the same connotation that it has in the Balkans. It's a bit hard to explain, but in Catalonia exists a strong sense of cultural and 'national' identity. There is a word, 'Catalanism', that describes a cultural movement, emerged in the XIX Century, in defence of the "proper and distinctive values of the historic personality of Catalonia". All nationalists are supposed to be catalanists and also the 'federalist' left-wing parties (PSC-PSOE and PSUC, later ICV and EUiA). Those parties that supported the new Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia (2006) are regarded as catalanist parties. The Catalan Parliament approved it with 120 of 135 affirmative votes. Only PP voted against.

PSC and ICV-EUiA are federalist parties with a sizeable portion of 'nationalist' or 'sovereignist' members but, while ICV is comfortable supporting the 'Right to Decide' (i.e. a Referendum on Independence) in PSC is a terrible headache. When the Catalan Parliament voted a resolution to hold a referendum last thursday there were opposed positions inside the socialist parliamentary group that they tried to solve with abstention. As I quoted before, a PSC deputy broke the discipline and voted "yes".


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 04, 2012, 07:15:20 PM
Today starts the official campaign in the Basque Country and Galicia. Apparently tomorrow the CIS will publish polls for both elections.

There is a poll published by Gara and Naiz, both are media linked to the abertzale left. According to that poll:

PNV 35.1% and 26 seats (-4); EH-Bildu 26.8% and 22 (+17, keeping in mind that Aralar and EA got 5 seats in the last election); PSE-EE 16.3% and 14 (-11); PP 14.1% and 11 (-2); Esker Anitza (IU) 3.8% and 2 (+1) and UPyD 1.7% and 0 (-1).

http://www.naiz.info/media/asset_publics/resources/000/011/004/original/20121004encuesta_voto.pdf

I can't believe the result that they give for Araba (PNV gets 9 seats and PSE only 4).


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: ag on October 04, 2012, 07:15:37 PM
At least nationalism in Catalonia has not the same connotation that it has in the Balkans.

It's not the Balkan associations that cause the shudder here :)

Courtesy of a certain midcentury political movement, there is a kind of a ban in force in Europe on using the words "nationalist" and "socialist" in one sentence in any sort of a remotely positive context :)

Of course, as the many leftist chavistas on this forum would seem to be testifying to, the ban does not apply outside Europe :) It seems, Catalunya in this case is equally non-European :)




Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 04, 2012, 07:52:01 PM
At least nationalism in Catalonia has not the same connotation that it has in the Balkans.

It's not the Balkan associations that cause the shudder here :)

Courtesy of a certain midcentury political movement, there is a kind of a ban in force in Europe on using the words "nationalist" and "socialist" in one sentence in any sort of a remotely positive context :)

Of course, as the many leftist chavistas on this forum would seem to be testifying to, the ban does not apply outside Europe :) It seems, Catalunya in this case is equally non-European :)

I knew, ag, "national" and "socialism" make me shudder too :). I shudder when I think about Greece or Hungary but in the case of Catalonia my main concerns are the economic consequences if secession comes true and the wild beast of the incomprehension. About Chavismo I'm glad to see that in this forum there are people who go further than the primaries "pro" and "anti" poses.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 04, 2012, 09:35:46 PM
In Britain there once was a small Marxist political party called the National Socialist Party; it was the right wing of what had been the British Socialist Party (previously the SDF) the majority of which became the CPGB. The split in the BSP was caused by the First World War, which the right supported and the left didn't. The NSP merged into the Labour Party - although in its West Ham stronghold it would be more accurate to put things the other way round - after the 1918 General Election.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 05, 2012, 05:59:28 AM
CIS

Galicia:

PP 38 seats (=)
PSdeG 23-24 (-1/-2)
BNG 12-13 (-2/-3)
EU-ANOVA 1 (+1)

Euskadi:

PNV 27
EH-BILDU 21-22
PSE-EE 14
PP 9-10
Esker Anitza (IU) 3


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 07, 2012, 03:02:40 PM
Camp Nou this evening.
() (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/827/campnouv.jpg/)

Quote
After 17 minutes and 14 seconds, a chant about Catalan independence goes up around the stadium. They want it back basically. But why that time, you ask? They lost it in 1714, says Professor Steinberg, shamelessly cribbing off someone else's notes. There endeth tonight's history lesson.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2012/oct/07/barcelona-real-madrid-live-mbm

Visça Veneto Lliure! Ahem... I'm just kidding, don't worry ;)


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 11, 2012, 06:00:40 PM
I found a questionaire about the Galician election. Unfortunately it's only in Spanish and Galician languages. I must be a voter of the Galician Left Alternative (AGE) if I have to trust this test.

http://www.horizontegalicia.com/

My result: AGE (EU, Anova, Equo, etc) 62.1%; BNG 54.6%; CxG 49%; PSOE 39.2%; UPyD 21.9% and PP -41.7%. Yes, you've read well, my proximity to PP is in negative numbers.

There is a "graphic of distance" which says that I'm relatively near to AGE, BNG, CxG and PSOE, far from UPyD and at a sideral distance from PP. On economics my distance from AGE is 9.4, 13.4 from BNG, 25 from CxG, 34.1 from PSOE, 37.8 from UPyD and... 87.6 from PP! On society I'm at 16.4 from BNG and CxG, 18.9 from AGE and PSOE, 39 from UPyD and... 84 from PP. On politics I'm at 25 from CxG, 31.3 from BNG, 32.7 from AGE and PSOE, 40.8 from UPyD and 68.1 from PP. On Galician issues 25 from AGE, 26.4 from PSOE, 45.1 from UPyD and 56.5 from PP.

Finally there is a left/right-centralism/devolution axis. On the ideologic axis I'm between PSOE and CxG (at my right) and AGE and BNG (at my left). On the other axis I'm closer to PSOE.



Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on October 11, 2012, 06:18:28 PM
I didn't vote for all the questions, anyway my result: EU 55.8%, BNG 45.7%, CxG 44.6%, PSG-PSOE 40.9%, UPyD 20%, PP -37.0%. What I would expect really.

Would Barca really want independence?


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Kitteh on October 11, 2012, 08:00:19 PM
My results on the quiz:
EU 56.8% BNG 52.8% CXG 48.5% PSG-PSOE 40.3% UPyD 16.9% PP -46.6%

()

I didn't answer all the questions, and I gave "no opinion" to most of the Galician questions as I don't have strong feelings about that issue.

Interesting that most people here seem to be getting about the same results.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 11, 2012, 09:33:03 PM
Would Barca really want independence?

The current president, Sandro Rosell, is not as openly independentist as Joan Laporta but anyways:

Quote
Club president Sandro Rosell, whose father accidentally dropped and smashed the club's clay bust of Franco while throwing it gleefully about with a friend on the day the dictator died, has defended self-determination. "When Catalans decide their future, Barça will be at their side," he said recently. "We will always defend our roots and the rights of peoples to decide their own future."

But what league will it play in? "I have no doubt that Barça will keep playing in the [Spanish] liga," he said.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/oct/05/barcelona-real-madrid-catalan-nationalists


I didn't answer all the questions, and I gave "no opinion" to most of the Galician questions as I don't have strong feelings about that issue.

Interesting that most people here seem to be getting about the same results.

Maybe that's the reason why your star is up on the 'centralism' axis, close to UPyD, or did you answer any question related to language policies?


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 11, 2012, 10:02:38 PM
My results:

IUANOVA: 63.7%
BNG 49.6%
CxG 45%
PSOE 40.8%
UPYD 29%
PP -40%

Unsurprising now that I've realized I'm not the typical PSOE voter...
But I still support Pachi Vázquez!!!

Oh, and I'll go to Vitoria this Sunday to the Patxi macro-meeting, then will do some campaign for him. It's useless, we will not even get 17 seats...


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Kitteh on October 11, 2012, 10:29:46 PM

[quote authlink=topic=157959.msg3461417#msg3461417 date=1350003619]

I didn't answer all the questions, and I gave "no opinion" to most of the Galician questions as I don't have strong feelings about that issue.

Interesting that most people here seem to be getting about the same results.

Maybe that's the reason why your star is up on the 'centralism' axis, close to UPyD, or did you answer any question related to language policies?
[/quote]

I didn't answer the language policy questions. But I did answer questions related to the EU, and I am strongly pro-EU. Maybe they included those in the centralism scale and that's why I'm so far up?


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 12, 2012, 04:55:35 PM
I didn't answer the language policy questions. But I did answer questions related to the EU, and I am strongly pro-EU. Maybe they included those in the centralism scale and that's why I'm so far up?

I don't know how it works but I don't think so. I'm not Euro-Sceptic and my result was different. Trust the circle: you are in the middle.

Let's give a face to the Galician candidates.

() (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/248/galiza2012feijoo.jpg/)

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP). He's running a personal campaign showing himself as an example of solvent and austere manager and trying to take distance from the central government. The oposition tries to attack him claiming that the regional deficit is made up (El Pais published some evidence days ago) and with the issue of a supposed contract between PEMEX and the Galician shipyards. Feijóo stated that the contract is done but it seems that the Mexican Oil Company is considering various offers.

() (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/17/galiza20121018img201210.jpg/)

Pachi Vázquez (PSOE). Former mayor of O Carballiño (Ourense). The Galician socialists had to face a corruption scandal involving the mayor of Ourense in the beggining of the campaign. Also, other PP and BNG's elected officials are accused as a consequence of the 'Pokemon Operation'. Vázquez is regarded as a quite uncharismatic candidate.

() (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/197/galiza2012jorquera.jpg/)

Francisco Jorquera (BNG). Veteran nationalist who was Senator and Deputy in Madrid. Elected as the representant of UPG, the major faction in the BNG. The main challenge of the candidate is trying to mantain the strenght of the Galician Nationalist Bloc after several splits.

() (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/29/anovabeirasdiaz.jpg/)

Xosé Manuel Beiras (Anova) and Yolanda Díaz (EU). Beiras is a charismatic and quite populist nationalist leader who was the BNG candidate when the Galician nationalism was at its peak. He left BNG and created a new party, Anova, composed by his former BNG faction (Encontro Irmandiño) and other nationalist groups. Later Anova reached an agreement with the Galician IU (Esquerda Unida) in order to create a "broad front" against the "barbaric" PP's policies. The coalition was named Alternativa Galega de Esquerda (AGE). Yolanda Díaz, the EU leader, is a combative Ferrol councillor.

Other candidates are Xoán Bascuas (CxG, Compromise for Galicia) and the former banker Mario Conde who has Galician roots and leads Civil Society and Democracy (SCD). Conde was released from prison five years ago, after being accused of embezzlement. Now he is commentator in the very right-wing Intereconomía, among other things. It seems that his choices are lower as long the campaign is advancing. An article about the guy:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/10/12/inenglish/1350065631_786311.html



Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 13, 2012, 02:37:44 AM
The same test for the Basque Country.

http://www.horizonteeuskadi.com/

Result: Equo-Berdeak 53%; Ezker Anitza (IU) 47.9%; EH-Bildu 45.8%; PSE-EE 37.1%; EAJ-PNV 24.6%; UPyD 15.4%; PP -29.2%

Alternative result (with another algorithm): Equo 59.5%; IU 56.7%; PSE-EE 53.3%; EHB 46.7%; PNV 38.3%; UPyD 25%; PP -25%

Proximity: IU on Economics, PSE on Society, Politics and Basque Country issues.

Ideological axis: between PSE and Equo. Centralism/Decentralisation: close to Ezker Anitza.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 13, 2012, 07:08:04 AM
My results:

Equo-Berdeak: 67.9%
PSE-EE (!):       50.8%
Ezker Anitza:   49.2%
Bildu:               35%
UPyD:              34.6%
PNV:                3.8%
PP:                  -20.4%

About right. I'm surprised I'm such an environmentalist, but I'm glad to see PSE fits me better than IU this time :) The PP numbers should be around -40. Could it be because Basagoiti is more moderate than the national PP? Or maybe because I'm strongly pro-EU?


The alternative result is:

Equo:   69%
PSE:     61.7%
IU:       51.7%
UPyD:  40%
Bildu:   35%
PNV:    10%
PP:     -20%


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 13, 2012, 11:02:42 AM
El Mundo poll:

PNV 33.3% 24-26 seats; EHB 24.5% 20; PSE-EE 20.2% 16-18; PP 14.7% 12; UPyD 1-2 seats; IU 1.

Deia, Grupo Noticias:

() (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/507/pnv11.jpg/)

EDIT: I forgot this one from Eustat


() (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/211/encuestaeustat.png/)

http://www.lehendakaritza.ejgv.euskadi.net/contenidos/informe_estudio/o_12praut/es_12praut/adjuntos/12praut_es.pdf


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 13, 2012, 01:29:33 PM
I hope those numbers were true for PSE..


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Kitteh on October 13, 2012, 01:58:26 PM
I got Equo-Berdeak 56.3%, IU-EA 55.4%, Bildu 54.8%, PSE-EE 37.5%, 20.5% UPyD, 13.1% EAJ-PNV, -33.3% PP


This time it actually put me down on the descentralización side of things, about where IU is, I think because I said "agree" to the release of sick ETA prisoners. That was more of a humanitarian thing/because I'm a leftie who's soft on crime and terrorism ;) then out of any sympathy with the ETA. On the left-right axis I came in in between Equo and PSE.

Proximity: Equo/PSE on economics (I think Equo was just a tiny bit closer, basically a tie), Bildu on society, EAJ-PNV on politics (I wonder why), and Equo/IU on Basque issues (see above)


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 13, 2012, 05:08:36 PM
It's curious, but depending on the algorithm (I wrote "logarithm" before, lapsus linguae) PSE and EHB appear in different places in my results. This didn't occur with the Galician test. If I remember well I was relatively close to EHB except on Basque Country issues. I support the release of prisoners with terminal illness, despite my strong antipathy for ETA.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 13, 2012, 06:33:16 PM
The question was about sick prisoners, IIRC. That's what my option was "disagree". But, obviously, I believe the ones with terminal illness should be released from prison. Bolinaga shouldn't (I don't think he's terminal).

And the new LaVanguardia poll:

CIU 68-69
PSC 20-21
PP 17-18
ERC 13
ICV 10-11
Ciutadans 3
SI 0-2
PxC 0-2

Flawed, if you want my opinion. CiU gets the absolute majority here.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 13, 2012, 10:45:05 PM
Disgracefully a CiU absolute majority is possible, despite the cutbacks, the high unemployement rate, the sinking regional finances... Artur Mas is a magician: he's turning sad waters into wine (my apologies to Nick Cave, this is a plagiarism). Worst of all, he is receiving an unvaluable help from PP's ministers.

() (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/705/wertg.jpg/)

Up: José Ignacio Wert (Spain's Minister of Education): "We want to 'Hispanicize' Catalan children" ("Españolizar" sounds pretty ugly, believe me).

Down: Artur Mas (Catalonian President): "This is just what I need".

Even the King is worried:

Quote
King Juan Carlos on Friday used the military parade during Spain’s National Day celebrations to take Education Minister José Ignacio Wert to task over his controversial vow to “Hispanicize Catalan students.”

“That about Hispanicizing the Catalans of poor Wert -- I told him what he had done was very bad,” the king said to Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy as they watched the parade.

However, Wert stuck to his guns by insisting in Catalan that: “I am very proud about what I said.” (...)
http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/10/12/inenglish/1350053206_866433.html

Indeed Mr. Wert is a fire-eater and an arsonist, but his words reflect the mentality of certain right-wing (and UPyD and some leftists, for the record) in Madrid. I've read somewhere that if Catalonia gets independence, the Spain's Monarchy is over. I don't care too much about the King, because I'm Republican, but the consequences of a seccesion could be terrible. I'm sure that all of we, in the Rest of Spain, will be even poorer. Spain needs a deep Constitutional Reform but I'm afraid that this will never happen because of the blind resistance to change that show many people in Madrid and other parts of Spain.

Oh, I have another poll from El Correo/ Diario Vasco:

() (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/594/elcorreo.jpg/)






Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on October 14, 2012, 07:08:21 AM
Galicia:

EU: 60.8%
CxG: 51.6%
BNG: 51.3%
PSG-PSOE: 37.1%
UPyD: 22.7%
PP: -39,7%

Basque Country:

Bildu: 53.3%
IU: 50.4%
Equo-Berdeak: 49.4%
PSE-EE-PSOE: 30.8%
EAJ-PNV: 21.7%
UPyD: 5.0%
PP: -35.4%

Apparently, I drifted left in the recent months, since I'm far of the maintream left.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Zanas on October 14, 2012, 10:47:08 AM
Atlas Forum will do that to you... ;-)


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on October 14, 2012, 11:46:28 AM

Oh, no, I'm on the forum since longer than that. A couple of years. I would point more at the Quebec students protests of the spring.

To return on the subject, what CiU will do on the autonomy/independance front if elected with a majority?


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 14, 2012, 04:13:11 PM
To return on the subject, what CiU will do on the autonomy/independance front if elected with a majority?

Artur Mas has promised to hold a Referendum, with a CiU majority or with the support of other parties. There is some controversy about the referendum question, because Mas has a curious resistance to pronounce the word "independence". Days ago he told to La Vanguardia that the question could be: "do you want Catalonia turning into a new European state?". There are different opinions about what would happen with the EU if Catalonia secedes, because now belongs to it, but as a new country they´ll probably have to seek for admission. He also says that Catalonia needs to have an "estatal structure" and other things in the same fashion. Anyways he's pretty clear when he says that he would personally vote for independence. "Our ideal is to be part of the United States of Europe", he stated.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/06/world/europe/in-catalonia-spain-artur-mas-threatens-to-secede.html?pagewanted=1&ref=spain


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Gren on October 14, 2012, 04:27:02 PM
Hi! As a Basque voter, I'm pretty interested in this particular issue. I think this election will be a turning point for Euskadi: a lot of things are going to change, hopefully, after O-21.

First of all, the current lehendakari will be ousted from office, something I'm extremely happy about. Someone said in a previous post that he's not particularly unpopular, but that's simply not true. Patxi Lopez is disliked by a whopping majority of the Basque people, particularly (but not exclusively) by the nationalists and the ezker abertzalea. He's been despised by the Basque society ever since he was sworn in as Lehendakari after a contra-natura deal with Basagoiti's PP. As far as I'm concerned, he's been a fairly incompetent leader and administrator and he'd better go home after the election.

The fact that EHBildu is taking part is quite positive and evidences the political normalization of our country. Now every single group will be represented, mirroring the real opinion and feelings of the Basque population as a whole. This doesn't mean that we should forget about what happened,  but it is a clear step towards peace. Their candidate, Laura Mintegi, is not too controversial and gives an overly good impression. They're gonna get an awful lot of votes, although I don't  think they'll win. The past is just too recent for the ezker abertzalea to overcome many voters' doubts and fears.

Anyway, I'm not hiding my support for the PNV and Iñigo Urkullu. The PNV has a pretty good record and is the least polarizing of the 4 major parties. By the way, they're not right-wing as many people claim, just look at how they vote. They're definitely socially liberal and centrist when it comes to the economy. They've voted against Zapatero's and Rajoy's cuts, but now the same ones that caused the mess and made anti-social decisions (namely the socialists) are trying to picture the Basque Nationalist Party as conservative. They're however not succeeding on it: the PNV, as I said before, has a clear record as a party who cares for the elderly, the unemployed and small businesses. The real right-wing in Euskadi is the People's Party, but they stand a zero chance of winning, so the PSE and EHBildu to a lesser extent are trying to demonize the PNV.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 14, 2012, 04:46:15 PM
Wecome, it's great to have a Basque here. :)

Hi! As a Basque voter, I'm pretty interested in this particular issue. I think this election will be a turning point for Euskadi: a lot of things are going to change, hopefully, after O-21.

First of all, the current lehendakari will be ousted from office, something I'm extremely happy about. Someone said in a previous post that he's not particularly unpopular, but that's simply not true. Patxi Lopez is disliked by a whopping majority of the Basque people, particularly (but not exclusively) by the nationalists and the ezker abertzalea. He's been despised by the Basque society ever since he was sworn in as Lehendakari after a contra-natura deal with Basagoiti's PP. As far as I'm concerned, he's been a fairly incompetent leader and administrator and he'd better go home after the election.

I think that I wrote in a previous post something about what you're saying about the "contra-natura" deal and the ban of the abertzale left. Anyways I wonder if the dislike of López is because of his leadership and administration skills or it's only the "national question" what plays a role here.

Quote
The fact that EHBildu is taking part is quite positive and evidences the political normalization of our country. Now every single group will be represented, mirroring the real opinion and feelings of the Basque population as a whole. This doesn't mean that we should forget about what happened,  but it is a clear step towards peace. Their candidate, Laura Mintegi, is not too controversial and gives an overly good impression. They're gonna get an awful lot of votes, although I don't  think they'll win. The past is just too recent for the ezker abertzalea to overcome many voters' doubts and fears.


Agree mostly. I was always opposed to the ban of Batasuna but I can't avoid thinking that this measure was helpful in order to fight against ETA, so I understand the other position.

About PNV, you will win according to the polls so... I see PNV as center-right, not right wing, and some people has told me that they have developed some good social policies in Euskadi. Obviously, I've heard some criticism towards jetzales too.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Hash on October 14, 2012, 05:32:33 PM
I thought that López's government was hated but that López the man had some fairly decent personal ratings (from the Euskobarometro poll, I think). Is his government's unpopularity due only to the stupid alliance with the Francoists or is it due to other factors, like the economy? How has his government been on economic issues - has he made any cuts? I know that the CAPV's debt has grown a lot under him, though it remains healthy by Spanish standards, and that there's some issue of him lending money to Madrid without interest meaning that Spain owes the CAPV money or something.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 15, 2012, 04:11:07 AM
I'm sure López, the person, is not disliked in Euskadi. The problem is that he was elected lehendakari after losing an election only because PP's Basagoiti thought he was marginally better than Ibarretxe...

I was in Vitoria yesterday, to campaign for Lopez and attend the meeting with Rubalcaba (I took a photo with both of them, will show it later), and the meeting wasn't as full as I expected. Actually, there were some -not many- empty chairs. 4 years ago his meetings were fuuuull of people. I guess that means polls are right or overesimating Patxi :(

BTW, welcome back, Gren. But PNV is still a conservative party. If you don't think so, wait and see Urkullu govenrment.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Gren on October 15, 2012, 09:33:57 AM
It's not only that he's governed with the PP, there are many other reasons why people dislike him. Because, believe me, people do dislike him and not just his cabinet. He lacks a solid academic formation (in the past he'd claim he's an industrial engineer) he can't speak Basque (and admitted having skipped his classes) and he's generally regarded as not very hardworking, somewhat careless and fairly incompetent when it comes to bread-and-butter issues. This is what most people I know think of Patxi López, and a majority of them are not hardcore PNV or EHBildu supporters. What may have confused you is his popularity outside Euskadi, where he's certainly well regarded.

Thank you for your welcome, Julio. Anyway, I'm not going to argue with you about my party's position on the political spectrum. Facts are facts, not empty worlds, and they clearly show the PNV's real nature. Urkullu has made clear that cuts are unavoidable, quite unlike the PSOE (who are playing the we're-the-saviors-of-the-welfare-system-against-the-evil-right role) However, the PNV has consistently ranked as the most trusted party in Euskadi, and people know that public healthcare and education are not at risk under a nationalist-led government.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 15, 2012, 05:56:14 PM
Well, Lula didn't have academic formation (Patxi left the University) and he was a popular President. I don't think that's a reason not to like somebody.
He can't speak Basque, as many other Basques (including Ibarretxe!) but he's learning it. Yesterday, half of his speech was in Basque ;)

There are some interesting graphics which show Euskadi has managed to improve its economy since 2009 (while the rest of the Autonomic Communities were cutting and cutting the spending and going down the flames: Valencia, Canarias, Catalunya, Andalucia, Castilla-La Mancha and now probably Aragon):

Commerce: ()

Unemployment: ()

Growth: ()

Others: ()



Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 15, 2012, 08:28:22 PM
I love quoting myself...
...and with the issue of a supposed contract between PEMEX and the Galician shipyards. Feijóo stated that the contract is done but it seems that the Mexican Oil Company is considering various offers.

Enrique Peña Nieto is backing the contract negotiations. Well, he promises (generically) to help us to alleviate our dire straits:

Quote
Mexico’s President-elect Enrique Peña Nieto on Monday offered his country’s support to help Spain break away from the ongoing economic crisis. In Madrid for a series of meetings with Spanish businessmen and officials, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) leader said that once he takes office on December 1, he will introduce a series of economic strategies to help “development in my country, but which at the same time will help Spain emerge from the crisis.”

Although he didn’t specifically state what these strategies entail, Peña Nieto mentioned that he wanted to open up the state-owned petroleum firm Pemex to private investment and reform the country’s financing laws.

“Spain is our second-most important partner in the European Union, and the nation with the largest [inward] investment at $45 billion, but that relationship must be improved to become more beneficial for both countries,” he said.

On Monday, the Mexico City daily El Universal reported that the Popular Party (PP) had confirmed a Pemex investment of 247 million euros in the construction of an industrial complex in Galicia for storage, shipment and deliveries of oil industry liquids. The project, which requires the construction of 14 boats in local shipyards, will generate more than 2,500 jobs, the newspaper said quoting a PP statement.

Once the environmental impact statements are approved, the construction of the new complex could begin as early as next year. The PP said that Pemex project will jumpstart the shipping industry in Galicia, where some 7,000 people have lost their jobs over the past two years, El Universal said.

The agreement was first hammered out during Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s visit to Mexico in April. The PP leader was accompanied by Galician regional premier Alberto Núñez Feijóo, who is running for re-election next Sunday.

Peña Nieto met with Rajoy at La Moncloa Palace on Monday and was also expected to meet with King Juan Carlos.
http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/10/15/inenglish/1350312477_915937.html

Good news for the shipyards in Vigo and Ferrol and for Feijóo.

Polls say that the incumbent Galician Premier is retaining the majority (37-41 seats according to Faro de Vigo and 39-41 if we trust La Voz de Galicia tracking)

Artur Mas gave more details about the steps that he will follow after the election on the referendum issue in an interview in TV3, the Catalan public television. Maybe I'll go into this later.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Gren on October 16, 2012, 10:04:41 AM
Well, Lula didn't have academic formation (Patxi left the University) and he was a popular President. I don't think that's a reason not to like somebody.
He can't speak Basque, as many other Basques (including Ibarretxe!) but he's learning it. Yesterday, half of his speech was in Basque ;)

There are some interesting graphics which show Euskadi has managed to improve its economy since 2009 (while the rest of the Autonomic Communities were cutting and cutting the spending and going down the flames: Valencia, Canarias, Catalunya, Andalucia, Castilla-La Mancha and now probably Aragon):

Commerce: ()

Unemployment: ()

Growth: ()

Others: ()



C'mon, are you really equating Patxi López to Lula da Silva? You can't compare the latter's success to the former's mediocrity. López is a career politician who doesn't even have a university degree, who's never worked outside politics and who never held an executive position prior to becoming lehendakari. You may not deem that important, but many voters do, and I'm just echoing what they think. I don't know to what extent are you familiar with the Basque voters, but you're probably aware of the fact that candidates with a "perfil de gestor" (I couldn't find the appropriate expression in English) are much preferred here. That's actually one of the reasons why the PNV has been successful in winning so many elections. I respect  your admiration towards Patxi López, but you have to admit that the PSE-EE could have chosen a better candidate back in 2009 (I admit not being enthusiastic about Iñigo Urkullu either, but for very different reasons)

Regarding the economy, it's true that the Basque Country has suffered less than the rest of Spain. Only an idiot would claim the opposite thing. However (and now I'll be writing in Spanish because it's extremely difficult for me to find the correct words) esto no tiene mucho que ver con la gestión de Patxi López, y sí con la diferencias históricas entre la economía vasca y la española. En Euskadi, para empezar, la construcción no tenía el peso tan importante con el que contaba en el resto del Estado español; su tejido productivo depende más de la industria y está más enfocado a las exportaciones, por lo que ha sorteado la crisis con más dinamismo. Tampoco podemos olvidarnos del concierto económico, otro elemento clave y diferenciador, ni del papel de las Diputaciones, que no tiene equivalente en el resto de Comunidades Autónomas (y las Diputaciones, hasta el año pasado, las gobernaba todas el PNV)

The graphs you've posted are misleading, specially when official data shows that unemployment in 2009 stood at 8,1% and is currently standing at 11,9%. http://www.eustat.es/elem/ele0000200/tbl0000209_c.asp#axzz29TSqyr1h (http://www.eustat.es/elem/ele0000200/tbl0000209_c.asp#axzz29TSqyr1h)


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Hash on October 16, 2012, 10:22:30 AM
Gren, sólo sé un poco sobre el "federalismo fiscal" en España, ¿puedes explicar un poco más los efectos beneficiosos del concierto sobre la economía vasca, en el contexto de la crisis?

Y estoy totalmente de acuerdo con tu análisis de la economía vasca. Bueno, me me gusta Patxi Lopez, pero creo que que cualquiera puede admitir que no merece crédito especial para el estado relativamente buena de la economía vasca.

(y espero tambien que mi espanol aqui no era demasiado mal!)


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 16, 2012, 03:19:33 PM
Bueno, me parece correcto discutir en castellano aquí, ya que hay muchos miembros del foro que quieren aprender castellano y ya somos tres los españoles.

Los datos sobre el empleo me parece que son en cifras absolutas y no en porcentajes. Y la subida del 2% del paro ha sido muuuuchíiiisimo menor que en el resto del Estado, y ya sé que en Euskadi la construcción tenía menor peso y que el concierto ha favorecido la menor incidencia de la crisis... Pero aún así, en el resto del Estado se ha duplicado (más que eso). Y la política de estimular el crecimiento de Patxi digo yo que tiene algo que ver, mientras que la ideología económica del PNV en realidad no difiere mucho de la del PP nacional. Creo que si hubiera seguido gobernando Ibarretxe la crisis hubiera sido peor para Euskadi, sinceramente.
Patxi ha demostrado que vale más la pena inyectar dinamismo a la economía que recortarla.

El concierto económico, Hash, ha permitido a Euskadi no tener que dar su recaudación al gobierno para que este lo redistribuyera, básicamente. Y cuando en realidad Euskadi y Navarra deberían dar una cuota al Estado, no lo están haciendo en la medida que se exige, y pueden invertir ese dinero en su economía.

Finalmente, lo que más aprecio de Patxi es que no se ande con ambigüedades. El PSE-EE es un partido que defiende la Autonomía dentro de España, y en eso está. No hace como el PSC que cada día dice una cosa y a la vez no dice nada (aunque parecen haberse asentado en la idea de Estado Federal). Patxi es un tío honesto, un buen tío, y, para mí, un buen lehendakari.

Me hace gracia que le quites todo el mérito al gobierno de Euskadi sobre la lucha contra la crisis y se lo des a las diputaciones... Pero bueno, cada uno que crea lo que quiere. ¿La de Araba no la ostentaba el PP?

Hash, tu castellano es muy bueno. Lo único que has puesto medio mal es el paréntesis explicativo del final jjaja...


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Gren on October 16, 2012, 04:21:23 PM
Gren, sólo sé un poco sobre el "federalismo fiscal" en España, ¿puedes explicar un poco más los efectos beneficiosos del concierto sobre la economía vasca, en el contexto de la crisis?

Y estoy totalmente de acuerdo con tu análisis de la economía vasca. Bueno, me me gusta Patxi Lopez, pero creo que que cualquiera puede admitir que no merece crédito especial para el estado relativamente buena de la economía vasca.

(y espero tambien que mi espanol aqui no era demasiado mal!)

Your spanish is superb! So don't worry ;)

Yo no soy experto en el concierto económico, pero intentaré explicarte en pocas palabras y de forma muy simple por qué lo considero importante en esta época de crisis. Este sistema fiscal permite a las tres territorios (Araba, Bizkaia y Gipuzkoa) establecer sus propios tipos impositivos, entre otros derechos. Por ejemplo, el Impuesto sobre Sociedades (the corporate tax) es del 28% en los tres territorios, mientras que en el resto de España es del 30%. Esto, como es lógico, supone que funcionar y pagar los impuestos en Euskadi sea más atractivo para algunas empresas, sobretodo las de Comunidades limítrofes/cercanas (Cantabria, La Rioja) Este hecho contribuye a que el tejido empresarial vasco tenga una base más sólida, lo que en tiempos de crisis es un factor importante y que juega a favor de la economía vasca. Como dice Julio, el hecho de que las Diputaciones recauden y gestionen la mayoría de impuestos hace que se puedan re-invertir en la economía y en innovación, lo que supone otro punto a favor.

Probably not extremely accurate, but I hope it'll help you :)

Julio, todos sabemos que al PSOE le interesa que los electores asocien al PP con el PNV. Pero como te he dicho en los posts anteriores, los hechos son los que son y la gente los conoce. En estos momentos, cuando la situación económica y social es tan convulsa y el gobierno del PP (que es sinónimo de recortes) es tan impopular, sois conscientes de que la mejor forma de desprestigiar al PNV y meter miedo a la gente es relacionarlo con la derecha antisocial que gobierna desde Madrid. No lo vais a conseguir, porque la gente sabe de dónde viene y qué ha hecho el PNV, y también sabe de dónde viene y qué ha hecho el PSOE. El PNV votó en contra de los recortes de Zapatero de Mayo de 2010 y contra la reforma laboral y el tijeretazo de Rajoy en 2012. No voy a decir que el PNV sea un partido de izquierdas, pero: 1) No ser de izquierdas no lo convierte en derechista 2) la justicia social no es patrimonio exclusivo, ni muchísimo menos, de la izquierda 3) El PSOE dejó hace mucho de ser un partido de izquierdas.

Ese último punto me parece importante, ya que los socialistas se erigen ahora como defensores del estado de bienestar, ese mismo estado de bienestar que ellos han contribuido a desmontar. Dices que López no ha recortado, cosa que no es verdad. El Gobierno Vasco ha recortado en Sanidad, Educación y Seguridad Ciudadana. No niego que algunos de esos recortes fueran necesarios (por desgracia) pero no intentéis ocultar la verdad.

PD: Sobre lo de las Diputaciones, el PNV controló las tres entre 2007-2011, incluyendo la de Araba (el diputado general era Xabier Agirre)


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 16, 2012, 04:59:07 PM
Finalmente, lo que más aprecio de Patxi es que no se ande con ambigüedades. El PSE-EE es un partido que defiende la Autonomía dentro de España, y en eso está. No hace como el PSC que cada día dice una cosa y a la vez no dice nada (aunque parecen haberse asentado en la idea de Estado Federal). Patxi es un tío honesto, un buen tío, y, para mí, un buen lehendakari.

A mí no me molesta el federalismo. Al contrario, creo que la única solución (si es que existe) al problema territorial de España pasa por lo que se ha venido ha llamar "federalismo asimétrico". Incluso no tendría problemas en reconocer a Cataluña y Euskadi la condición de naciones dentro del Estado y una cierta relación de bilateralidad. En realidad el concierto vasco ya establece una relación bilateral entre los gobiernos vasco y central en el terreno económico, lo que supone un problema serio porque Catañuña no disfruta de ese sistema y se siente discriminada (de ahí la reclamación del "pacto fiscal"). De todas formas mis deseos no pasan de ser una utopía, no creo que una reforma constitucional sea posible con el clima político actual.

Si tengo que hacerle algún reproche al PSC y a Maragall es que nunca hayan sido capaces de articular una alternativa federalista. Si algo reprocho al PSOE son las reticencias centralistas de ciertos barones territoriales. Si algo tengo que reprochar a Zapatero es que fuera tan ingenuo al prometer que aprobaría cualquier cosa que saliera del Parlament de Cataluña, para después no tener más remedio que recortar el Estatuto en el Congreso tras haberse sentado con Artur Mas (el mismo que ahora está en otra historia). La sentencia del politizado Tribunal Constitucional, cuatro años después de que el PP presentara el recurso, fue la puntilla para los catalanes. Hay muchos más factores que explican el auge del independentismo en Cataluña, por supuesto, pero la cuestión de la financiación autonómica (que es injusta y que los nacionalistas han explotado con bastante éxito) y la sensación de que en Madrid no se respetan sus aspiraciones tienen bastante peso.

Me temo que tendré que darle un poquito la razón a Gren. A mí el PNV no me parece tan antisocial como CiU.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 17, 2012, 07:20:54 PM
Dani, yo estoy a favor del federalismo asimétrico y del derecho a la autodeterminación. Pero hablo como individuo, mientras que un partido debería hablar como tal, y no como conjunto de individuos. La Tura quiere una nación dentro del Estado, el Maragall quiere ser independiente, el Navarro no sabía lo que quería hasta que decidió que lo que más "molaba" era el federalismo... Lo que critico del PSC es eso, su ambigüedad y cambios de discurso. Patxi, sin embargo, siempre se ha mantenido en la misma línea de pensamiento (y eso es lo que he dicho que aprecio de él).

Gren, claro que el PNV ha votado en contra de todos los recortes. Y el PP también cuando gobernaba Zapatero, y ahora el PSOE cuando gobierna Rajoy. Porque es muy fácil decir que son malos para la economía ("la subida del IVA es el sablazo del mal gobernante a la economía" dijo Rajoy en 2010). Pero la verdad es que el elector del PNV de toda la vida no difiere mucho del elector del PP de toda la vida en cuanto a forma de ver la economía. Y ahora Urkullu se presenta como un moderado, centrista, que prefiere la inversión al recorte. Exactamente como Rajoy en 2011. Obviamente, también creo que el PP es bastante más radical, pero vamos, que el PNV no es ni mucho menos centrista o centroizquierdista. Yo creo que es más probable que ahoguen la economía vasca a que la incentiven, qué quieres que te diga...

Dicho esto, me encanta tener esta clase de debate. Y si echáis a Patxi, que lo haréis, no pasa nada, hombre. Nosotros lo presentamos en 2015 al Gobierno central si hace falta. Que ya te digo yo que con uno como él si empezamos a subir en las encuestas :) Es más, creo que algún peneuvista lo votaría, como hicieron con ZP en 2008.

Ari ari ari Patxi Presidente de España.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 17, 2012, 08:30:58 PM
Dani, yo estoy a favor del federalismo asimétrico y del derecho a la autodeterminación. Pero hablo como individuo, mientras que un partido debería hablar como tal, y no como conjunto de individuos. La Tura quiere una nación dentro del Estado, el Maragall quiere ser independiente, el Navarro no sabía lo que quería hasta que decidió que lo que más "molaba" era el federalismo... Lo que critico del PSC es eso, su ambigüedad y cambios de discurso. Patxi, sin embargo, siempre se ha mantenido en la misma línea de pensamiento (y eso es lo que he dicho que aprecio de él).

A Navarro le viene demasiado grande el puesto, Montserrat Tura parece una persona válida pero está en minoría, Ernest Maragall ya está fuera del partido, Carme Chacón está desaparecida en combate... Menuda papeleta tiene el PSC. Un partido como el PSOE tiene que reflejar la pluralidad de los sectores que representa; no me creo el rollo homogeneizador que defienden los populistas de UPYD.

I feel more comfortable in Spanish due to my imperfect English but let's use the Forum's language, in other case nobody will pay attention.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Zanas on October 18, 2012, 04:44:27 AM
Nadie viene aqui en el foro de elecciones internacionales de toda manera... ;)

Y los que vienen hablan todos los idiomas, pues no molesta que hablen ustedes en español aqui en mi opinion.

Cual es la verdadera posibilidad de que Catalunya vuelva a ser un Estado mas de la Union europea ? Es seria la reivindicacion actual o es una manera de cambiar la relacion de fuerzas dentro del Estado español ? Del exterior no es muy facil decirlo o comprenderlo.



Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 18, 2012, 06:33:22 AM
Yo sinceramente pienso que Mas no quiere una Catalunya independiente porque sabe que es impracticable. Pero si se pone en ese extremo gana votos y el término medio se sitúa en una Catalunya federal, que es lo que yo creo que es la solución. La cosa es que el gobierno central es tan intransigente y tan centralista que cada día que habla un ministro hay medio millón más de independentistas. Mas y Rajoy están jugando con fuego, y yo creo que ambos se acabarán quemando.

Sobre que Catalunya sea miembro independiente de la UE, es imposible:
1) No se va a independizar de España
2) Para ser miembro tiene que ser un Estado reconocido por todos los Estados Miembro de la UE, y está claro que España no lo va a reconocer como independiente.

Respecto a lo de hablar castellano... teniendo en cuenta que aquí se habla mucho alemán también, e incluso a veces francés, no veo el problema.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 18, 2012, 01:49:28 PM
No estoy de acuerdo en cuanto a los deseos de Mas. Él siempre ha declarado a quien quisiera escucharle que su deseo era una Cataluña independiente. Otra cosa es que antes de la impresionante manifestación del 11 de septiembre Mas pensaba que Cataluña sólo podría plantear la independencia cuando hubiera una amplia mayoría social respaldándola. ¿Qué es lo que ha ocurrido? Mas, que es un neoliberal y admira a Merkel, ha estado practicando una agresiva política de recortes que ha afectado dramáticamente a las prestaciones sanitarias, por ejemplo. La situación de los sectores más desfavorecidos en Cataluña (y en otras partes de España) es terrible. Si su nivel de popularidad no ha caído significativamente ha sido porque siempre ha justificado sus políticas de dos maneras:

1) La gestión anterior del tripartito PSC-ERC-ICV ha sido desastrosa y ha dejado un déficit inasumible.
2) La financiación autonómica es muy injusta: Cataluña recibe mucho menos de lo que aporta a las arcas del Estado. Hay algo de cierto en esto y muchos expertos señalan que hay que reformar el sistema, pero el nacionalismo ha exagerado la cuestión hasta el infinito y ha usado la demagogia con mucho éxito: "España nos roba" (y muchos catalanes piensan que esto es cierto).

Este último es un factor muy importante porque el independentismo de Mas cabalga sobre la crisis económica y sobre sensación de que a los catalanes les están expoliando. Si Cataluña fuera independiente, dicen, el país podría salir mejor de la crisis. Por supuesto el discurso de Mas y de los independentistas catalanes en general tiende a obviar las dificultades que entrañaría un proceso de secesión. Tampoco está clara cuál sería la reacción de la UE, que se ha limitado a señalar que este es un asunto interno español. En todo caso creo que tanto Cataluña como Escocia tendrían que solicitar el ingreso.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 18, 2012, 02:07:40 PM
me no speako dago


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 18, 2012, 02:09:12 PM
In all seriousness, I'm fine with this, but a vague translation (even a very brief one) would occasionally be welcome or something.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 18, 2012, 04:36:12 PM
Where could I start? Hash asked about the benefits of the Basque fiscal system in the context of the economic crisis. Julio and Gren answered him and continued arguing about the merits or flaws of Patxi López and about if PNV is a conservative pro-austerity party or not . Later me and Julio discussed about federalism and PSOE's attitude towards it. Zanas asked about the chances of Catalonia as a new EU state. I tried to set out some reasons why, in my opinion, the independentism in Catalonia is rising.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 18, 2012, 06:35:51 PM
I haven't heard about Duran i Lleida for weeks... Do you think he feels comfortable with Mas independentist approach? Because I don't think he is.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 18, 2012, 07:35:14 PM
If Durán i Lleida is disgusted, he's keeping an advisable silence. If he has anything to say, be sure that it will be after the election. I don't know if Durán Lleida is still in his previous position. Mas stated some time ago that the Catalan nationalism was "too obsessed about reforming Spain" in the past. Remind that UDC has little effective power and the CDC's grassroots are mainly independentist nowadays.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 19, 2012, 08:56:09 PM
Prediction time! I'm optimistic today:

Euskadi

PNV  25
Bildu 20
PSE  17
PP    10
EA    2
UPD 1

Galicia

PP       36
PSdeG 23
BNG    11
AGE     4-5 (leaning 5)
UPyD   0-1 (leaning 0, but I think they have realistic chances in Pontevedra).


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 20, 2012, 07:52:41 AM
I haven't heard about Duran i Lleida for weeks... Do you think he feels comfortable with Mas independentist approach? Because I don't think he is.

Today El País says that Durán i Lleida is raising doubts about the non-independentist CiU voters. Previous polls say that 38% are openly independentist, 35% wouldn't go further than a federal state and 20% favour the status quo. Probably the support for seccesion is stronger in these days. Durán warned, inside the party, "if only independentists vote for us it won't be enough". According to El País the UDC leader recommended caution to Artur Mas and said: "my aim is not talking about the referendum question" but gaining a majority. On the other hand people in CDC think that the independentist bid won't affect the outcome due to PP's radicalization and the troubles that PSC has in articulating a federalist alternative.
http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2012/10/19/catalunya/1350643359_779430.html

Prediction time! I'm optimistic today:
UPyD   0-1 (leaning 0, but I think they have realistic chances in Pontevedra).

Come on, Julio, my crystal ball says that UPyD has not chances at all.  ;)


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: SPQR on October 20, 2012, 08:12:13 AM
No estoy de acuerdo en cuanto a los deseos de Mas. Él siempre ha declarado a quien quisiera escucharle que su deseo era una Cataluña independiente. Otra cosa es que antes de la impresionante manifestación del 11 de septiembre Mas pensaba que Cataluña sólo podría plantear la independencia cuando hubiera una amplia mayoría social respaldándola. ¿Qué es lo que ha ocurrido? Mas, que es un neoliberal y admira a Merkel, ha estado practicando una agresiva política de recortes que ha afectado dramáticamente a las prestaciones sanitarias, por ejemplo. La situación de los sectores más desfavorecidos en Cataluña (y en otras partes de España) es terrible. Si su nivel de popularidad no ha caído significativamente ha sido porque siempre ha justificado sus políticas de dos maneras:

1) La gestión anterior del tripartito PSC-ERC-ICV ha sido desastrosa y ha dejado un déficit inasumible.
2) La financiación autonómica es muy injusta: Cataluña recibe mucho menos de lo que aporta a las arcas del Estado. Hay algo de cierto en esto y muchos expertos señalan que hay que reformar el sistema, pero el nacionalismo ha exagerado la cuestión hasta el infinito y ha usado la demagogia con mucho éxito: "España nos roba" (y muchos catalanes piensan que esto es cierto).

Este último es un factor muy importante porque el independentismo de Mas cabalga sobre la crisis económica y sobre sensación de que a los catalanes les están expoliando. Si Cataluña fuera independiente, dicen, el país podría salir mejor de la crisis. Por supuesto el discurso de Mas y de los independentistas catalanes en general tiende a obviar las dificultades que entrañaría un proceso de secesión. Tampoco está clara cuál sería la reacción de la UE, que se ha limitado a señalar que este es un asunto interno español. En todo caso creo que tanto Cataluña como Escocia tendrían que solicitar el ingreso.

Estoy llenamente de acuerdo sobre la segunda parte (y sè demasiado poco sobre la prima para decir algo).
Lo que me parece, despues de haber vivido allì para unos seis meses, es que a la mayoria de la gente le interesa muchisimo defender sus origenes y tradiciones catalanas, y eso es justo.
Si ahora hay mucha mas gente de antes que grita "Catalunya libre" solo es por los problemas economicos y por los politicos catalanes que tratan de parecer "lindos" y "victimas del Estado" cuando en realidad Catalunya tendrìa problemas tambien con una financiacion autonomica mas justa.

La independencia solo es la respusta que parece mas facil a una crisis tan grande,y que ha venido despues de un fomento tan largo. Pero creo que los catalanes al final lo entenderàn.


(Sorry for the accents  :P )


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 20, 2012, 08:42:41 AM
Es increíble cuánta gente habla español por aquí. ;) Yo tengo alguna familia por Cataluña pero no he vivido largas temporadas allí; sólo he ido de visita.
La cuestión es muy complicada, pero por supuesto la crisis económica es fundamental. Por otra parte, Mas se ha subido al tren en marcha (por decirlo de alguna forma) cuando vio aquella manifestación de la Diada. Los sentimientos nacionalistas e independentistas siempre han estado allí pero ahora, cuando todo parece estar hundiéndose, es evidente que mucha gente cree que la independencia es una especie de bote salvavidas. Por otro lado, el debate entre partidarios y detractores del independentismo evita que se hable de la crisis; esto beneficia tanto a CiU como al PP. Se ha comentado que Mas optó entre quedar en la historia como "el presidente de los recortes" o ser recordado como el campeón de la independencia.

The economy is a very important factor but not the only one. In Catalonia exists a very complex and mixed sense of identity. On the other hand many catalans think that Spain doesn´t understand or respect them. Independentists tend to think that the problems will be over when Catalonia will get independence. I think that Mas is a bit oportunistic, to say the least. There is an interesting manifesto online which I agree (in Catalan and Spanish) The translation could be: "Call for the federalist and leftist Catalonia".

http://federalistaidesquerres.cat/?page_id=1310

I see the Catalan left-wing (PSC,above all, and perhaps ICV too) so lost, caught in the no-man's land...


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 20, 2012, 09:37:02 AM
Jooder, otro castellano-parlante por aquí :) En un foro español no encuentras ni la mitad que hablen inglés jaja

Por cierto, tengo parientes que viven en Sant Pere de Ribes... El marido (catalán de nacimiento) va a votar CiU, me parece. Su mujer, mi prima Fina (zaragozana), probablemente votará a ICV (pero no descarto PSC o CiU: votó a los Pirates en 2011). Su hijo Pere va a votar ICV lo más seguro. Da el perfil y habla bien de Herrera.

Nadie más hace sus predicciones?

por cierto lo del escaño por Pontevedra lo digo porque me ha contado un amigo de Vigo, que votará a Beiras, que están haciendo una buena campaña los de UPyD (sé que es una razón tonta, pero bueno). Y como dieron la sorpresa en muchos parlamentos regionales el año pasado, creo que es posible...


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 20, 2012, 07:16:40 PM

I'm the worst predictor ever.

Euskadi: EHB 22 and PSE 15; the same that you predicted for the other parties. By herrialdes (territories or provinces):

Álava/Araba: PNV 7; EHB, PP and PSE 5-6 seats; UPyD and EA-IU 0-1 seats.

Gipuzkoa/ Guipúzcoa: EHB 10-11; PNV 7-8, PSE 5; PP 2; EA-IU 0-1.

Bizkaia/Vizcaya: PNV 11; EHB 6; PSE 5; PP 3.

Galicia: PP 39; PSOE 21; BNG 10: AGE 5. Conservative and pesimistic




Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 21, 2012, 10:02:47 AM
Turn out down both in Galicia (specially in Ourense) and Euskadi (specially in Guipuzkoa). It's surprising in Euskadi, considering that in 2009 the pro-ETA abertzales didn't have an option (only Aralar for the most moderate ones). And this could be good news, as Ourense is the most conservative province and Guipuzkoa the province where Bildu always wins.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 21, 2012, 10:27:40 AM
In Galicia, 42% have voted, down 7 points from 2009. It's always good news for the right in Spain, but Feijoo managed to win with the biggest turn-out ever in 2009. So, I'm not sure what it means this time.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 21, 2012, 11:20:57 AM
Down only 1 point in Euskadi now, And up in Guipuzkoa :(

In Galicia, down 8.7% in Ourense, 7.1 in Lugo, 7 in Pontevedra and 6.1 in Coruña. Lugo and Ourense are the most conservative.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 21, 2012, 01:15:55 PM
Israelites.

Basque Country (ETB): PNV 24-27; EHB 23-26; PSE 13-15; PP 9-11; UPyD 1; EA-IU 0-1

Galicia (TVG-Ipsos): PP 39-42; PSOE 18-20; BNG 7-8; AGE 8-10. (V-Sondaxe) PP 39; PSOE 20; BNG 8; AGE 8.

Provisional results here:

Basque Country (English): http://www.elecciones.net/Flex/EleccionesFlex_en.html

Galicia: http://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/2012/autonomicas/11/



Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 21, 2012, 01:20:28 PM
:(


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 21, 2012, 01:24:43 PM
It seems pretty bad for Basque and Galician socialists. Let's wait for the actual results.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 21, 2012, 02:19:59 PM
Basque Country (51% counted):  PNV 27; EH-Bildu 21; PSE 16; PP 10; UPyD 1

Surprisingly in Gipuzkoa (57.5% counted) PNV and EHB are tied (9 seats each one)

Bizkaia (52%) PNV 11; EHB 6; PSE 5; PP 3

Araba (45%): PNV 7; EHB 6; PSE 6; PP 5; UPyD 1.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 21, 2012, 02:52:49 PM
Galicia (65% counted): PP 41; PSOE 18; AGE (EU-Anova) 9; BNG 7

Basically it's personal victory of the incumbent Feijóo a disaster for PSOE and BNG. The surprise is the EU-Anova coalition led by Beiras, the 76 years old Galician nationalist. In the city of A Coruña PP is ahead with 39.1% of the vote, followed by AGE (20.7%), PSOE (20.5%) and BNG (8%). In Vigo the provisional result is: PP 33.4%; PSOE 25.2%; AGE 19.5% and BNG 9.9%.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 21, 2012, 05:48:46 PM
What a terrible election night.

Feijoo and PNV have big wins. PSE and PSdeG big loses.
The only good news is that AGE managed to have great results. The bad news is that we, the socialists, are behind Beiras in Ferrol, Coruña AND Santiago :'(.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Gren on October 21, 2012, 06:07:39 PM
I'm extremely happy, we won comfortably in Euskadi (9 points ahead of EHBildu) and with more votes than the PSE-EE/PP/UPyD coalition. This is a good night for Euskadi, indeed.

Julio, creo que los socialistas deberíais hacer una reflexión muy seria y sacar una conclusión de estas elecciones. Habéis sufrido un auténtico varapalo, tanto en Euskadi como en Galicia. Era de esperar, porque ya no lográis conectar con la sociedad, que está cansada de que vuestros líderes intenten valerse del descontento social, cuando ellos mismos son grandes culpables de la situación. Algo habréis hecho mal cuando el PNV os ha quitado vuestros feudos de Barakaldo, Sestao, Etxebarri... y cuando ANOVA os supera en muchas ciudades gallegas. Fracaso absoluto y sin paliativos. Rubalcaba dimisión por el bien del partido.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 21, 2012, 06:46:47 PM
Felicidades, Gren. Julio, otra vez será. ;)

Estoy sorprendido de que el PNV haya estado tan cerca de EH Bildu en Gipuzkoa. ¿Voto útil hacia el PNV? ¿Habrá tenido algo que ver la gestión de Bildu en la Diputación? En Donostia EH Bildu ha pasado de ser el partido más votado en Municipales y Generales a quedar tercero, por detrás de PNV y PSE. Es evidente que el resultado ha sido un varapalo para los socialistas, pero no me parece tan grave como lo de Galicia. Digamos que 16 escaños era un poco lo que se esperaba por lo que decían los sondeos. El crecimiento de EU-Anova en la recta final de campaña ha sido espectacular.



Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 21, 2012, 07:33:34 PM
PSOE does have a bit of a credibility problem at the moment, doesn't it?


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 21, 2012, 07:37:37 PM
Claro que debemos sacar conclusiones de esta mierda de jornada electoral para el PSOE. Y de hecho, si no se toman medidas, que sepan que tengo un pie fuera del partido (ni siquiera está dentro, porque soy afiliado a Juventudes Socialistas pero no al PSOE). Sin embargo, no comparto que Rubalcaba tenga que dimitir. Supondría un descenso aún mayor del PSOE abrir otra crisis justo ahora. Creo que lo suyo es relanzar a Patxi después de su derrota hoy.
Por cierto, felicidades por vuestros resultados :)!

Creo que la gente esperaba (y las encuestas a pie de urna también) un descenso mayor para el PSE, sinceramente. Aún así, son unos resultados pésimos.
El PNV yo pienso que ha obtenido voto útil, como dice Dani. Y creo que ha sido por parte de socialistas y populares moderados que querían evitar una victoria en las urnas de Bildu.

En Galicia, ya sabemos que "la cabra tira al monte", y al final la participación ha bajado sólo un 1%. Mi impresión es que los votantes del PP se han movilizado por la tarde por miedo a un gobierno de izdas, qué opináis vosotros?

Y, finalmente, la conclusión que saco de los resultados en Guipuzkoa es que hemos subestimado demasiado al elector medio. Han padecido la parálisis que ha supuesto que la diputación la ostentara Bildu y más personas de lo esperado se han ido a la opción seria del PNV, algunos incluso han votado al PSE (viniendo de Bildu en 2011).

Así que nada, ahí queda esta noche electoral en la que un pie mio empieza a asomar en IU (y también por cuestiones internas que explicaré más adelante si queréis jajaja) pero que espera que el rumbo del PSOE cambie de aquí en adelante.



Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 22, 2012, 01:33:23 AM
()


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 22, 2012, 01:46:07 AM
PSOE does have a bit of a credibility problem at the moment, doesn't it?

Indeed. Rubalcaba has to take a long hard look. Beatriz Corredor, a former socialist minister, made some comments in the same direction in Twitter tonight. I think she was siding with Carme Chacón in the last Congress. Sorry, Julio, but PSOE needs Madina for future challenges, not Patxi López.

En Galicia, ya sabemos que "la cabra tira al monte", y al final la participación ha bajado sólo un 1%. Mi impresión es que los votantes del PP se han movilizado por la tarde por miedo a un gobierno de izdas, qué opináis vosotros?

It's really curious. I'll have to look the results more carefully but I think that rural vote saved Feijóo this time. I think that PP fell significantly in the cities (Vigo, Coruña, Ferrol, etc). The Beiras' "Galician Syriza" got 14% of the vote!!! It's another interesting phenomena, partly due to Beiras' charisma but also it's a serious warning to PSOE. Feijóo's victory is a momentary relief for Rajoy; now bailout is waiting.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 22, 2012, 03:24:52 AM
Euskadi. Complete results:

PNV 34.6% and 27 seats (-3); EH Bildu 25% and 21 (+16); PSE 19.1% and 16 (-9); PP 11.7% and 10 (-3); UPyD 1.9% and 1 (no change). Without seats: EA-IU 2.7%; EB-B 1.6% (-1); Equo 1%.

http://imagenes.elecciones.net/listados/territorioscapitales.pdf


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Gren on October 22, 2012, 04:48:10 PM
Claro que debemos sacar conclusiones de esta mierda de jornada electoral para el PSOE. Y de hecho, si no se toman medidas, que sepan que tengo un pie fuera del partido (ni siquiera está dentro, porque soy afiliado a Juventudes Socialistas pero no al PSOE). Sin embargo, no comparto que Rubalcaba tenga que dimitir. Supondría un descenso aún mayor del PSOE abrir otra crisis justo ahora. Creo que lo suyo es relanzar a Patxi después de su derrota hoy.
Por cierto, felicidades por vuestros resultados :)!

Creo que la gente esperaba (y las encuestas a pie de urna también) un descenso mayor para el PSE, sinceramente. Aún así, son unos resultados pésimos.
El PNV yo pienso que ha obtenido voto útil, como dice Dani. Y creo que ha sido por parte de socialistas y populares moderados que querían evitar una victoria en las urnas de Bildu.

En Galicia, ya sabemos que "la cabra tira al monte", y al final la participación ha bajado sólo un 1%. Mi impresión es que los votantes del PP se han movilizado por la tarde por miedo a un gobierno de izdas, qué opináis vosotros?

Y, finalmente, la conclusión que saco de los resultados en Guipuzkoa es que hemos subestimado demasiado al elector medio. Han padecido la parálisis que ha supuesto que la diputación la ostentara Bildu y más personas de lo esperado se han ido a la opción seria del PNV, algunos incluso han votado al PSE (viniendo de Bildu en 2011).

Así que nada, ahí queda esta noche electoral en la que un pie mio empieza a asomar en IU (y también por cuestiones internas que explicaré más adelante si queréis jajaja) pero que espera que el rumbo del PSOE cambie de aquí en adelante.



Gracias por lo de los resultados, aunque la verdad es que yo poco tengo que ver en ellos :)
Sobre la situación interna del PSOE ya di mi opinión,  pero no te lo voy a discutir porque no me incumbe ni me concierne. Supongo que sus organismos sabrán qué es lo que deben hacer en estas circunstancias.

Sobre los votos en Euskadi, creo que es muy difícil hacer cábalas sobre cómo ha fluctuado el voto entre partidos. Yo personalmente no me esperaba que el PP perdiera votos, porque lo que pasó en 2009 fue que hubo una más que presumible transferencia de votos del PP al PSOE (de unos 40,000 votos, diría yo, mientras que el resto de los que perdieron los populares se fueron a UPyD) y creía que parte de esos votos regresarían a Basagoiti. Al final no ha sido así, y el PP ha perdido más de 15,000 votos. Sin embargo, es difícil  decir si esos votos de menos han ido al PNV como alternativa anti-Bildu o se han ido a la abstención. Yo, sinceramente, me inclino por la segundo opción. ¿Qué es lo que me lleva a pensar esto? Bueno, en http://www.euskadi.net/q93TodoWar/eleccionesJSP/q93Contenedor.jsp?idioma=c&menu=li_2 ya están disponibles los resultados por secciones censales, las cuales se pueden ubicar utilizando http://www.cartociudad.es/visor/ Es una forma muy útil de saber cómo han votado zonas muy específicas. Pues bien, a lo que voy, en secciones censales ultrapeperas del municipio de Getxo (que corresponden a los barrios de Neguri y Las Arenas y son really, really affluent) el voto al PP ha subido bastante, después de haber bajado en 2009 por esa transferencia al PSE y UPyD que comentaba. En la sección 23 del distrito 2 de Getxo, que tiene el mayor porcentaje de voto al PP en todo Euskadi, han subido del 63% al 77%, mientras que el PNV perdía un voto y se mantenía prácticamente igual. Esta tónica se puede distinguir también en el distrito 6 de Bilbao (Abando e Indautxu, zona centro/burguesa) donde gana esta vez el PNV (que obtiene más de mil votos nuevos) pero donde el PP sólo pierde 23 papeletas y mejora levemente su porcentaje.  También se mantiene o aumenta la derecha española en los barrios del Ensanche y Mendizorroza (sus feudos adinerados de Vitoria-Gasteiz) así como en el distrito 2 de Donostia (que también corresponde a la zona centro de la ciudad)  sin que el PNV crezca demasiado. Por lo tanto, aquí creo que ha pasado lo siguiente: El PNV pierde algunos votantes en favor de Bildu en Bizkaia y Araba, mientras que lo contrario sucede en Gipuzkoa; el PSE-EE pierde votos en dirección PP y PNV en zonas adineradas,  mientras que el votante socialista obrero se abstiene o, en menor medida, vota PNV o Ezker Anitza y EB-B (cuya suma ha subido con respecto a 2009 pese a no obtener representación al ir por separado) El votante popular de clase media y baja también se abstiene (¿los recortes de Rajoy?) mientras que se mantiene e incluso aumenta su voto de clase alta (recuperan votos perdidos de UPyD y PSE-EE) Esa es mi modesta radiografía de lo que ha podido ocurrir...


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Zanas on October 22, 2012, 05:51:11 PM
Qué tipo de coalicion estamos contemplando ahora en Euskadi ? Parece que el bloque PSE-PP-UPyD esta a igualdad perfecta con el PNV con 27 escanos, y en medio se situa EH Bildu con sus 21 escanos. No me parece facil ver cual sera el gobierno saliendo de estas urnas.

(For Sibboleth, I just asked what coalition could come out of those poll-boxes)


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: ag on October 22, 2012, 05:58:44 PM
Qué tipo de coalicion estamos contemplando ahora en Euskadi ? Parece que el bloque PSE-PP-UPyD esta a igualdad perfecta con el PNV con 27 escanos, y en medio se situa EH Bildu con sus 21 escanos. No me parece facil ver cual sera el gobierno saliendo de estas urnas.

(For Sibboleth, I just asked what coalition could come out of those poll-boxes)

PNV-Bildu o PNV-PSE son posibilidades. O una minoría de PNV con el soporte de Bildu y/o PSE desde afuera.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Gren on October 23, 2012, 12:59:16 AM
El PNV gobernará, eso está bastante claro. En un principio no habrá coalición ni con EHBildu ni con  el PSE-EE, sino que se buscarán acuerdos puntuales y se gobernará en solitario. Para mí un gobierno compartido entre PSE-EE y PNV sería impensable y una traición al electorado nacionalista, y así lo ve también gran parte de la base del partido.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 23, 2012, 02:04:00 AM
Efectivamente, la opción más probable un gobierno del PNV en minoría. EH Bildu no pondrá ningún tipo de impedimento a la investidura de Urkullu, pero es impensable que la izquierda abertzale apoye las medidas económicas que probablemente se van a tomar. O sea, que Urkullu buscará apoyos en distintas fuerzas dependiendo de los asuntos; Zapatero llamaba a esto "geometría variable". Citando esta noticia:

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2012/10/22/actualidad/1350936016_959274.html
Quote
De entrada, las preferencias de salida del PNV pasan por la creación de un Gobierno vasco en solitario al que se irían incorporando acuerdos puntuales “con el mayor número de fuerzas posibles” sobre cuestiones tan nucleares como los presupuestos, la paz y convivencia, o el nuevo estatus político, entre otros.

Sin embargo también se dice que en el PNV no descartan un acuerdo de legislatura (no se especifica con quién) similar al que tuvieron PSE y PP en la última legislatura y que se podría extender a ayuntamientos y diputaciones provinciales. La opción más improbable es una coalición, sea con EH Bildu o con el PSE. No parece una tarea fácil llegar a acuerdos: hay diferencias ideológicas bastante grandes con EH Bildu y las relaciones entre el PNV y el PSE están muy deterioradas. La aritmética parlamentaria dice que el PNV podría incluso apoyarse en PP y UPyD para aprobar leyes, pero esto parece todavía más inconcebible.

Quote
(For Sibboleth, I just asked what coalition could come out of those poll-boxes)
Probably PNV will form a minority government seeking for broad agreements in important questions like budget, peace and cohabitation (perhaps convivialty fits better) or the new political status for the Basque Country. Urkullu said that his main concern will be facing economic crisis and placed the debate about the political status in 2015.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 23, 2012, 04:28:33 AM
Yo pienso que el Gobierno lo ostentará PNV en solitario pero con un acuerdo velado PNV-PSE, para garantizar la estabilidad del Gobierno (beneficia al PNV) y poder seguir impulsando políticas contrarias a las del Gobierno central en lo económico (que beneficia a Patxi de cara al futuro y al PSE).

Excelente análisis, Gren. O sea que el PP ha subido en los distritos pijos de toda la vida y la clase media pepera les ha dado la espalda. Curioso. Por cierto, parece que Basagoiti seguirá al frente del PP vasco.

Yo creo que el PSE tiene tres grandes políticos en sus tres provincias, que pueden ser los líderes, cualquiera de los tres, del PSOE nacional (menos probable el de Guipuzcoa): Odón Elorza (Guipuzcoa), Patxi López (Vizcaya) y Edu Madina (Álava).
Ya sé que Dani prefiere a Madina, y yo a Patxi (pero porque Odón no está en primera línea, si no, sería él mi favorito). Pero desde el punto de vista de un peneuvista, a cual prefieres tú? O, al menos, cuál es el que menos te disgusta?



Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Gren on October 23, 2012, 09:19:24 AM
Yo pienso que el Gobierno lo ostentará PNV en solitario pero con un acuerdo velado PNV-PSE, para garantizar la estabilidad del Gobierno (beneficia al PNV) y poder seguir impulsando políticas contrarias a las del Gobierno central en lo económico (que beneficia a Patxi de cara al futuro y al PSE).

Excelente análisis, Gren. O sea que el PP ha subido en los distritos pijos de toda la vida y la clase media pepera les ha dado la espalda. Curioso. Por cierto, parece que Basagoiti seguirá al frente del PP vasco.

Yo creo que el PSE tiene tres grandes políticos en sus tres provincias, que pueden ser los líderes, cualquiera de los tres, del PSOE nacional (menos probable el de Guipuzcoa): Odón Elorza (Guipuzcoa), Patxi López (Vizcaya) y Edu Madina (Álava).
Ya sé que Dani prefiere a Madina, y yo a Patxi (pero porque Odón no está en primera línea, si no, sería él mi favorito). Pero desde el punto de vista de un peneuvista, a cual prefieres tú? O, al menos, cuál es el que menos te disgusta?



Es posible lo que dices del pacto velado entre PNV-PSE-EE, pero ya se verá. No me parecería del todo mal, siempre y cuando también se pudiera recurrir a las demás fuerzas políticas para acuerdos puntuales. O sea, algo así como un pacto de no-agresión con el PSE-EE para facilitar la gobernabilidad.

Gracias por lo del análisis, aunque para mí es un placer hacerlo, porque me encanta la geografía política. Pues sí, se reduce más o menos a eso: el PP sube a costa de PSE-EE y UPyD donde más cayó en 2009,  que fue en zonas urbanas de clase alta. Los peperos de clase media/media-baja se han quedado en casa en mayor número. El voto del PP vasco cuenta, hoy más que nunca, con un peso muy significativo de la alta burguesía. Es sorprendente que un partido que se sitúa entre el 10-15% del voto en toda Euskadi registre resultados del 40, 50, 60 e incluso el 70% en secciones censales perfectamente definidas, que siempre coinciden con zonas de alto poder adquisitivo. El resto del voto pepero viene de zonas urbanas de clase media y obreras, y yo diría que en la gran mayoría de casos, se trata de personas de origen o ascendencia gallega (Ermua, barrio de Masustegui en Bilbao) castellano-leonesa (Vitoria-Gasteiz) etc. En las zonas rurales el PP es prácticamente inexistente, salvo en la Rioja Alavesa, que es un poco caso aparte (de cualquier forma, la Rioja Alavesa aporta muy pocos votos)


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 23, 2012, 03:18:45 PM
New poll released by RAC1-La Vanguardia. It's the first one where appears the CUP, an independentist left-wing or far-left group that only stood for municipal elections to date. They got 2% in the 2011 municipals (there weren't lists in all places) and some people think that they have some chances, but the poll says that they will get only 1% by the moment. They could steal ERC, SI or ICV-EUiA voters.

CiU is on the edge of the absolute majority, PSC is a very distant second, PP is in its 2010 level, slight increases for ERC, ICV-EUiA and C's, SI could be out of the Parliament.

() (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/502/54353806674.jpg/)

Tomorrow I'll post a map of Galicia with a lot of shades of blue.



Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 24, 2012, 03:05:55 AM
()

Election result: PP 45.7% (-1%) and 41 seats (+3): PSOE 20.5% (-10.5%) and 18 seats (-7); AGE (EU-Anova) 14% (+13%)* and 9 seats (+9); BNG 10.2% (-5.8%) and 7 seats (-5).

Other parties: UPyD 1.5%; EB (protest party) 1.2%; SCD (Mario Conde) 1.1%; CxG 1%.

*EU got 1% of the vote in 2009.

EDIT: I got PSdeG mixed up with PPdeG in A Capela. Fixed.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on October 24, 2012, 03:23:51 AM
()

Results in the main cities of Galicia.

A Coruña: PP 39.7% (-3.9%); AGE 20.6%; PSOE 19.5% (-10.1%); BNG 7.6% (-8.6%).
Santiago de Compstela: PP 43.4% (-3.4%); AGE 21.8%; PSOE 16.5% (-11.8%); BNG 8.5% (-8%).
Ferrol: PP 41.5% (+0.2%); PSOE 20.2% (-7.8%); AGE 20.2%; BNG 8% (-3.5%).
Vigo: PP 34.2% (-7.8%); PSOE 24.5% (-8.2%); AGE 19.5%; BNG 9.7% (-7.8%).
Pontevedra: PP 38.3% (-6.6%); PSOE 18.8% (-12.2%); BNG 18.6% (+1.9%); AGE 13.1%.
Ourense: PP 38.1% (-5.6%); PSOE 24.4% (-10.3%); AGE 12.1%; BNG 7.4% (-7.4%).
Lugo: PP 44.7% (+0.6%); PSOE 22.4% (-11.2%); AGE 15.2%; BNG 7.8% (-7%).


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on November 03, 2012, 04:24:32 AM
Some news from Catalonia, just for keeping this thread alive.

Josep Antoni Durán i Lleida, the leader of UDC (the minor partner inside CiU), is taking distance from Mas. "There is not a great majority of Catalans wanting independence", he said in a broadcast. "I can't imagine Spain without Catalonia" and it's bad for Catalonia being without Spain. Durán assured that he has "a lot of common points with Mas", although he thinks that the proposed referendum doesn't have to be about independence" and remarked: "It must be held a legal referendum. It makes not sense that we would held a referendum if it's illegal". In a letter to the militance he wrote: "For responsability we can't leave without reply the uncertainties that this process implies and neither to hide the answer if we got one yet".

The hapless socialists are involved in some controversies. The former regional president of Extremadura, José Luís Rodríguez Ibarra, criticized the PSC's (vague) proposals about Federalism and Consdtitutional Reform. Rodríguez Ibarra was emphatic and said that PSC must rectify or PSOE must break with its Catalan counterpart. Related to this, Oriol Pujol (son of Jordi Pujol and detached CDC's sovereignist) said that the relationship between PSOE and PSC has something of sodomy... I love our politicians. Sorry for the translation if it isn't good enough.

Finally, another controversy about the Catalonian election:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/11/01/inenglish/1351781975_013684.html

Quote
The Central Electoral Commission (JEC) on Wednesday ordered the "immediate withdrawal" of a video on the regional elections slated for November 25 broadcast by the Catalan regional government, which is controlled by the center-right CiU nationalist coalition.

In its ruling, the JEC said the recording, which features images of Catalonia's history and a massive pro-independence demonstration in Barcelona, breached electoral rules by steering voter intentions.

The campaign, which cost the regional government 271,000 euros, was brought before the Barcelona Provincial Electoral Commission by the opposition Popular Party, Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) and the anti-sovereignty Ciutadans de Catalunya. In the absence of a specific electoral law in Catalonia, the matter was referred to the JEC, which said it contravened national rules.

The article states that political parties are permitted to air campaign broadcasts "of an institutional character designed to inform citizens of the date of the vote, the procedure of voting and requisites of postal voting without influencing the orientation of citizens' votes." The regional government withdrew the video but announced it would appeal the decision, which it says contravenes the Catalan Statute.

"The JEC prohibits us from campaigning, without getting to the heart of the video," said government spokesman Francesc Homs. "It is stopping us from adhering to the statute, which allows for campaigns to encourage voting. No referendum, no fomenting of votes... It seems everything to do with democracy sends people into a panic."

PSC leader Pere Navarro called for "those responsible" for the campaign to resign.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on November 10, 2012, 02:51:58 AM
The Catalonian election campaign started yesterday. As expected it will be focused on independence/ sovereignty issues with two confronted positions: CiU, ERC and the rest of nationalists/ independentists and the PP-C's anti-independentist bloc. Caught in the middle and with horrible electoral perspectives, PSC will try to focus the campaign on economy and social issues. On the left, ICV-EUiA's motto is: "Right to Decide, yes. Social Rights as well".

http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/11/09/inenglish/1352490023_374054.html

Quote
Catalonia’s election race kicked off on Friday with regional independence as the major issue for voters and candidates alike.

For the incumbent, Artur Mas of the Catalan CiU nationalist bloc, re-election on November 25 would mean not just four more years in office but support for his promise to conduct a referendum on sovereignty, with or without Madrid’s consent.

CiU is asking for an absolute majority of at least 68 regional representatives to follow through on its plans.

“If we don’t achieve an exceptional majority, we will not be taken seriously,” the premier said at a convention center filled to capacity and plastered with Catalan flags and posters bearing CiU’s campaign slogan,La voluntat d’un poble (The will of a nation). Mas has worked hard to erect himself as the leading figure of nationalist sentiment since September 11, Catalonia Day, when a massive popular march demanded more independence for the region. Since then, continued public statements by politicians, business leaders, artists and even the Catholic Church have polarized society ahead of an election that many view as a turning point.

“This is the most important campaign of our lives; our future and that of our children and grandchildren is at stake,” said regional PP leader Alicia Sánchez Camacho, who presented her party as “the only one at the national level which defends without shame that Catalonia is part of Spain.”

Meanwhile, opposition Socialists criticize what they view as “the enormous smoke screen of independence” which Mas is allegedly using to mask his triple defeat: his failure to reactivate the economy, the lack of alternatives to cuts in social spending, and his failure to negotiate a new "fiscal pact" with Madrid to grant greater revenue-raising powers to Catalonia.

Pere Navarro, the Socialist candidate to the premiership, also accused the conservative Popular Party (PP) of playing the nationalists' game by moving to the opposite extreme, and defended instead a continuation of the federalist system with increased powers of self-rule within the framework of Spain.

Before September 11, Mas' popularity ratings had been plummeting after slashing public services like health care and education in a drive to reduce the deficit. Public anger had reached such a point that on June 15 of last year Mas had to be flown into the regional assembly by helicopter to avoid the protesters.

The Center of Opinion Studies, depending on the Catalan regional government (Generalitat) released a poll, which shows results very favourable to CiU's interests (absolute majority), an even worse PSC's downfall than predicted in previous polls and PP surpassing the socialists as second force.

CEO's vote estimation:

CiU 43.4% (69-71 seats); PP 12.5% (18-19); PSC 12% (15); ERC 9.5% (14); ICV-EUiA 8% (10); C's 5.1% (6); CUP 2.8% (0-3); SI 2% (0).

The Center of Sociological Research (CIS), depending on the central government, predicts different results (see below).



() (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/842/ceocis.jpg/)

On the other hand, a 53-year-old woman commited suicide in Barakaldo (Basque Country).

Quote
(...)

The 53-year-old woman who killed herself in Barakaldo on Friday, Amaya Egaña, was a former Socialist councilor who happened to be personal friends with the outgoing Basque premier Patxi López.

“Ravaged by the death of a friend. Evictions are becoming the cruelest face of the crisis,” he wrote on his Twitter account after learning of her suicide.

In recent days, a growing chorus of voices — most notably judges — has been demanding government measures to stop this dramatic situation.

The chief judge of the Barakaldo courts, Juan Carlos Mediavilla, on Friday asked for a change to mortgage legislation to prevent new tragedies. “It would be good if we all gave this some thought and quickly, without further delay, modify existing legislation so that we judges could later interpret and enforce the new norms that would allow us to address these situations in a better way,” he said.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/11/09/inenglish/1352490951_172641.html

PP's administration will speed up reforms to mortgage legislation in the shadow of the social alarm created by thousands of desperate cases.






Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Hifly on November 10, 2012, 10:04:42 AM
Does the entire PSOE and PSC support gay marriage and liberal social policies or are there deputies and influential people within them who are socially conservatve?


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 10, 2012, 10:05:42 AM
I know it's entirely their own fault, but what's happened to the PSOE and PSC of late is really quite tragic.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on November 10, 2012, 12:30:59 PM
Does the entire PSOE and PSC support gay marriage and liberal social policies or are there deputies and influential people within them who are socially conservatve?

There's no controversy on such issues, even socialists with deep Catholic convictions like José Bono (former regional president, minister and  President of the Congress of Deputies as well) assume same-sex marriage and liberal social policies.

As for the PSOE and PSC hapless state, deserved or not my opinion is that Spain can't afford its social democrat party turning into PASOK. Probably is what some IU followers are expecting, but it should be a tragedy for our political system. I think that PSOE has a great responsability right now: broad renewal and reform or sharp falling into the precipice and/or insignificance.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on November 17, 2012, 11:01:45 PM
New polls. El País: CiU falls short to get a majority (68 seats needed); PP second in a tight contest with PSC and ERC; ICV-EUiA stagnated; C's above 5%, CUP gets 2 seats and SI dissapears.
() (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/42/catep.png/)

La Vanguardia: CiU gets 62-64 seats; PSC and PP are virtually tied in the second place;  remarkable increase for ICV-EUiA (almost 4% and 3-6 seats); ERC is 4-5 seats up from 2010; 7-8 seats for C's; CUP and SI on the edge of getting seats or being outside.

() (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/600/proyecciondelhemiciclod.jpg/)

El Periódico: The main difference with the other polls is that ERC gets the 2nd place, while PSC and PP are tied in the 3rd.
() (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/208/1353179184463.jpg/)


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on November 18, 2012, 05:10:36 PM
Polls are still showing a strong support for independence...

Quote
A recent survey by Catalan government-funded research group CEO predicts 57% of Catalans would vote to break away from Spain. However, the central government has said a referendum in the rich but indebted region would be unconstitutional, and the constitutional court in Madrid blocked a move to hold a similar vote in the northern Basque country as recently as 2008.
Another potential stumbling block for a separation has been raised by doubts over whether an independent Catalonia could remain in the European Union. When asked on Saturday at the Iberoamerican summit held in Cádiz, European commission president José Manuel Barroso replied that the bloc would stand by rules drawn up in 2004, ie states that secede would have to apply for membership.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/18/catalan-short-of-majority-independence

... but this support is conditioned. For example, the poll released by El País says that 46% are in favour of independence and 42% against. If independence implies being outside of EU, support for independence falls to 37%, while a 50% chooses remaining in Spain.
The poll by La Vanguardia says that 47% support independence (falling from 55% the past month), with 40% against (up from 33%). If Catalonia achieves a 'fiscal pact' support for independence is 42%, while 46% should be against.

On the other hand Artur Mas, harassed by a 'ghost report' accusing him and the former  president Jordi Pujol of having secret bank accounts in Switzerland, is increasing the tone of his campaign. He promises that his successor as Catalonian president won't be able to be legally deposed because Catalonia will be independent in that time. He promises more cutbacks as well, because "if someone promises that there won't be more adjustments, they're simply deceiving you".


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Zanas on November 18, 2012, 06:20:04 PM
On what platform does the ERC stand these days ? I mean on independence and also on other subjects. At one time it was my chosen party in Catalonian politics, but I really don't know nowadays...


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on November 18, 2012, 07:07:41 PM
ERC (founded by Jaume Aiguader in 1931) was a federalist party in its origins. During the Spanish II Republic it was the main force in Catalonia. In 1931, after winning the elections, Francesc Macià proclaimed the "Catalan Republic inside the Iberian Federation". Such initiative caused a constitutional crisis and subsequent negotiations ended with the 1932 Catalan Statute of Autonomy. Lluis Companys replaced Macià in 1933 as President of the Generalitat. In the following year, while Revolution is going on in Asturias, Companys proclaimed the "Catalan State inside the Spanish Federal Republic". The central government (a coalition between the right-wing monarchist CEDA and the 'centrist' Lerroux's Radical Party) crushed down the Asturian revolutionaries and suspended the Catalan autonomy. After the Popular Front's triumph it was reestablished until 1939, when Franco invaded Catalonia in the final stages of the Civil War.

Nowadays ERC is independentist. Reorientation occurred in 1989, when Àngel Colom was elected General Secretary. By that time ERC assimilated several small and scattered independentist groups, alongside with members of the former terrorist band Terra Lliure (dissolved in the early 90's). Under Carod-Rovira, Puigcercós and Oriol Junqueras, who is the current leader, this orientation continues.

As for the political platform, ERC pursues the attainment of a future Catalan Republic and they understand that exercising the Right to Decide is the way to find the exit from the crisis. Ideologically ERC is more or less socialdemocrat. The electoral program includes mentions to a new Catalan estate, reindustralization, knowledge economy, sustainable tourism... and a roadmap for the consecution of an independent state in 2013-14. If you are interested and you can understand Catalan, here you are:
http://file01.lavanguardia.com/2012/11/08/54354976158-url.pdf

Btw, another poll released by Sigma2 for El Mundo is a bit more optimistic about the outcome of PSC: CiU 60-63 (36,6%); PSC 21-23 (15,3%);  PP 20-21 (13,8%); ERC 14 (9,5%); ICV 10-12 (8,1%); C's 5 (4,5%); SI 0-2 (2,8%); Others 9,4%


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Zanas on November 18, 2012, 07:43:43 PM
How would you say ERC is placed on the political spectrum as opposed to ICV and PSC. From what I can gather, and notwithstanding the independentism spectrum, they are somewhere in between those two, but closest to which ? I'll try and read the link you posted : I don't understand Catalan, but I can understand French, Spanish and somewhat Italian, so I should get a few things. ;)


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on November 18, 2012, 07:53:16 PM
Ideologically it's between PSC and ICV as you say, perhaps they're just in the middle... depending on issues, maybe a bit to the right from ICV on social agenda and a bit to the left from PSC on economics or environment. It's not easy to place them in the exact point between the other two parties. The main issue where ERC differs significantly from PSC is independentism, but  members of the 'catalanist' wing of PSC, such as Montserrat Tura or Ernest Maragall, were tempted by ERC to join the party list for this election.  ICV is not openly independentist but supports the Right to Decide and many of its voters support independence, according to recent polls. I'd say the last issue and perhaps economics tips the balance slightly in favour of ICV.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on November 22, 2012, 01:10:34 PM
The main issue these days in the Catalan campaign is the controversy around the supposed secret bank accounts of Artur Mas and his political godfather Jordi Pujol.  While opposition is asking ministers to back up the insinuations made in the past days, the judicial machinery is acting in Catalonia:

Quote
(...)Prosecutors in Catalonia, meanwhile, have announced that they have opened a libel inquiry into El Mundo, the newspaper that first reported the allegations based on a purported draft investigative report by the police’s financial crimes unit (UDEF) that mentions accounts held by Pujol and his wife Marta Ferrusola, as well as Mas’ late father, Artur Mas Banet, in Switzerland and Liechtenstein.

Mas’ Catalan nationalist CiU bloc, with the support from the Socialists, have demanded that the interior and finance ministers, Jorge Fernández Díaz and Cristóbal Montoro, appear in Congress by Friday to clarify whether or not there is an ongoing investigation. But the PP blocked that petition. (...)
http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/11/22/inenglish/1353603425_667563.html

A police chief admitted that there are no reports that they should not have been put in knowledge o the judge who investigates the CDC's supposed financing across the Palau de la Música. The corruption scandal involves the former Palau's director, whose family had links with the venerable musical institution since since its foundation. There are investigated supposed grafts from Catalan builders to CDC across the Palau , and El Mundo published that departs from these commissions were addressed to Artur Mas, Jordi Pujol and relatives of both in Switzerland and Liechtenstein. The newspaper also published that Felip Puig, the regional minister (conseller) of Interior received 250000 euros in cash.

It sounds like a dirty war, especially when El Mundo and its director, Pedro J Ramírez are involved. The case Palau has been around for months and seems to be pretty ugly as well.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on November 24, 2012, 03:15:47 AM
Fortunately, this electoral campaign is over. Yesterday, during the habitual press conference after the cabinet's meeting, Deputy Prime Minister and Government's spokeswoman, Soraya Sáez de Santamaría, stated: "those who have overseas bank accounts must to declare them". It's a clear allusion to the allegations that have been spilt on Mas and other CiU leaders in the last days.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/11/23/inenglish/1353700228_287157.html
Quote
Just two days ahead of regional elections in Catalonia, Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría on Friday did nothing to quell the political ruckus raised by a dubious report, which is unsigned, unstamped and not addressed to anyone, suggesting that Catalan premier Artur Mas is corrupt.

During a news conference after the regular Cabinet meeting, Sáenz de Santamaría was asked five times about the “phantom” draft report insinuating that Mas and former Catalan premier Jordi Pujol have secret bank accounts in Switzerland where they reportedly deposited kickbacks-for contracts money (...)

If this isn't entertaining enough, the minister of Interior, the Catalan Jorge Fernández Díaz, admits that the document does not exist officially but...

http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/11/21/inenglish/1353521419_889882.html
Quote
According to the government, the document does not officially exist. The Interior Ministry, however, while admitting that the report is “irregular,” says that the majority of the claims it makes come from “scattered material” accumulated during the 2009 Palau Case investigation into alleged corruption at the concert hall. A Treasury investigation into the director of the Fundació Palau de la Música-Orfeó Català, Fèlix Millet, and his right-hand man Jordi Muntull, alleges that 24 million euros were skimmed from money granted to the Palau to stage performances and maintain its choir. A separate inquiry was opened when evidence emerged that some of this money was diverted to the Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC) political grouping — part of the CiU coalition on which Pujol sits as president and Mas as general secretary — through the bloc’s Ramon Trias Fargas Foundation.

() (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/696/13537107660514241353712.jpg/)

Artur Mas gave his final campaign's meeting in a crammed Palau Sant Jordi (home the FC Barcelona basketball team) with many Catalan independentist flags (esteladas). The aspiration of gaining an absolute majority has been rather stooped. Following his usual line of these days, Mas appeals to epic and to the historical importance of this election for the Catalan people. Allegations have helped CiU in presenting its leader as a victim of a dirty campaign that would chase discredit him. In the habitual language of campaign, Durán i Lleida alluded to a "state that is a sewer". "Catalans will be called in these four years to decide freely on our future", concluded Mas.

() (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/94/13537122683747371353712.jpg/)

Pere Navarro, that man scantily known outside Terrassa, chose the most modest location of a room of concerts, has being doing calls to the useful vote on the left, criticizing the ICV's sovereignty drift. It's a desperate attempt to recover votes to his left side and to avoid a predictable precipice in the polling booths. There is consensus in regarding his candidacy as a loser one and in the vagueness of his federalist offers that apparently don't seem to please many people. PSC has very modest goals: they conform themselves with 20 seats.

() (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/35/13537119227059331353712.jpg/)
El País entitles: "PP hides the cuts under the carpet". So PP's campaign has been focused on discrediting the Mas' independentist bet. Mas is being accused of coward and Messianic for not having courage enough to confront the crisis.  In the photo above, Alicia Sánchez-Camacho, the head of list, alongside with Dolores de Cospedal, regional premier of Castilla-La Mancha and PP's general secretary.

() (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/547/13537097333225241353709.jpg/)

Oriol Junqueras, the ERC leader, proclaims his love for Catalonia showing a cute T-Shirt.  ERC has tried to avoid mentions to the competence on the independentist ground, especially the far-left and anti-capitalist CUP, which aspires to obtain 5 seats and parliamentary group. Junqueras doesn't hide his desire of reaching a compromise with CiU over a sovereignist agenda and avoids criticizing Mas. ERC aspires to be the second force after this election and gaining the elections some day.

() (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/13/13536578966416761353658.jpg/)

Finally Joan Herrera (ICV-EUiA) is postulating himself as the only and real opposition to the cut policies.  Recently he received the visit of Syriza's leader Alexis Tsipras (see photo above) and they gave a common meeting at a Barcelona rail station. "We are a project that adds up federalists who don't lower the head before Madrid and independentists which aren't a trendy progressive complement of CiU", stated Herrera ( both clear allusions to PSC and ERC, respectively).


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on November 25, 2012, 02:14:13 AM
A survey by Sigma Dos (the usual El Mundo's pollster) for The Guardian, released on Thursday, suggests that CiU will lose seats (57-59, down from 62), PSC and PP would pick up 21-22 seats each one and ERC 16.  I take advantage of this to say that The Guardian has been published a series of articles about the ongoing electoral process in Catalonia. It's a collaborative effort with La Vanguardia, what includes translations of articles by Quim Monzó (valuable writer in catalan language) or Pilar Rahola (former ERC deputy, nowadays a part of the flatterers' choir surrounding Mas and , IMO, a moron). Also there's a test called "Can you spot the Catalan?", which is the 2nd most viewed entry in World News. Needless to say that I got 10/10 correct answers ;)

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/interactive/2012/nov/23/spot-the-catalan-interactive-quiz


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on November 25, 2012, 07:30:40 AM
And I thought Rahola had become a social democrat. LoL. Don't know why she keepsher seat on the left in the programme "El Gran Debate".

Turnout is 29%, 4 points higher than two years ago. Pretty massive.



Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Tender Branson on November 25, 2012, 07:38:50 AM
And I thought Rahola had become a social democrat. LoL. Don't know why she keepsher seat on the left in the programme "El Gran Debate".

Turnout is 29%, 4 points higher than two years ago. Pretty massive.

In Catalonia ? At noon ? What was the final turnout ?


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Tender Branson on November 25, 2012, 07:54:50 AM
I'll try a Catalonia prediction:

38% CiU
13% PSC
12% ERC
11% PPC
10% ICV-EUiA
  7% C's
  3% SI
  3% CUP
  1% PxC
  2% Others


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on November 25, 2012, 08:30:36 AM
My prediction:

CiU 60 seats
PSC 21
ERC 16
PP 15-16
ICV 12
C's 7
CUP 3-4 (3.5%)
SI 0 (2.4%)
PxC 0 (1.9%)


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on November 25, 2012, 10:16:04 AM
And I thought Rahola had become a social democrat. LoL. Don't know why she keepsher seat on the left in the programme "El Gran Debate".

Turnout is 29%, 4 points higher than two years ago. Pretty massive.

In Catalonia ? At noon ? What was the final turnout ?

I remember have read a Rahola's interview to the Honourable President (Artur Mas) in a local newspaper's Sunday magazine a few weeks ago at the dentist's consultation. I assure you that calling Rahola flattering and servile is speaking in a smooth way.

Turnout figures collected at 13.00 to be precise. It was 29.45%, the highest since 1988. Anyways the final turnout could be only relatively massive (by Catalan elections' standard); highest turnout ever was in 1984 with 64.3%.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on November 25, 2012, 12:26:22 PM
Turnout at 18.15 is 56.14% (+7.75% compared with 2010). Polling stations close at 20.00 (local time). Maybe we'll see a turnout record after all.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Kitteh on November 25, 2012, 12:59:32 PM
I got 7/10 on that quiz. Not bad for pretty much just random guessing (I knew Dali for certain, no clue on any of the others).


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on November 25, 2012, 01:25:49 PM
7/10 is pretty good ;)

Turnout figures (at 18.00) are pretty interesting in some Barcelona's districts. The highest turnouts are in the affluent and pro-CiU conservative areas such as Sarriá-Sant Gervasi (63.2%), Les Corts (62.1%) and in the district of Gràcia (60.2%). Ciutat Vella, the Barcelona´s old downtown, has the lowest (45.8%). Nevertheless, major turnout increases are in the working-class districts, such as Nou Barris (+8.7%), Sant Martí and Sant Andreu (+ 8%, approx.), while the increase in the posh Sarriá-Sant Gervasi is the lowest (+5.35%).  Nou Barris is were PSC traditionally performs better and CiU has its worst results. The district has declared itself as "very infuriated" due to the closing of health centers and schools. Many families have all their members in unemployment and the diminishing social helps are insufficient.

Turnout in provincial capitals (18.00): Barcelona 57.5% (+7.1%), Tarragona 55.4% (+9.5%), Girona 60% (+8.6%) and Lleida 51.8% (+5.7%)


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on November 25, 2012, 02:06:14 PM
TV3 released an Israelite:

CiU 54-57; ERC 20-23; PP 16-18; PSC 16-18; ICV-EUiA 10-12; C's 6-7; CUP 5-6


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on November 25, 2012, 02:21:36 PM
Devastating for CiU and PSC, excellent news for ERC, CUP and C's, if accurate.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on November 25, 2012, 03:05:46 PM
Fernando Garea is writing in El País that Artur Mas has been fattened the tiger in order to be devoured himself. According to Garea "Artur Mas deserves a bust in ERC's headquarters" (to the side of Aznar's) and also notes how good is for the Catalan independentism having a PP's government in Madrid. He comes to say that the CiU's sovereignist draft has been a terrible business because people always prefer originals to the copy, that is to say, a conservative, pactist and pro-establishment party cannot turn into radicalism and being still credible. The independentist challenge and the early election would have served him to avoid a major defeat, due to the terrible economic situation, but the draft has been so big that it doesn't justify such a short result. Now" the Messiah who was going to take Catalonia to the promised land" is in the hands of others. The result wouldn't be so bad for PP, because the sovereignist forces are divided (even at the cost of reinforcing ERC), and at least they and Ciutadans have managed to make profitable the polarization Spain-Catalonia. For PSC it's an utter disaster and the days of Pere Navarro seem to be over. The Catalan socialists will have a debate on its own identity. On the left the CUP, and to a lesser extent ICV, gather the social discomfort in a similar way of the Galician Syriza.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Hash on November 25, 2012, 03:29:18 PM
C's is doing really well, and PP is holding up remarkably. I suspect it's due to the polarization in this campaign. Where is C's finding its new support? the PSC?


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on November 25, 2012, 03:36:17 PM
Given that PP is performing well, the C's voters must be people dissapointed with PSC's weak position between two waters. A 9% in the province of Barcelona is a remarkably good result; PSC is polling 18.5% right now (34.55% counted). In Tarragona (48.8% counted) C's is performing better than ICV and PSC is literally sinking (14.2% and 4th place).

Update with 68.59% counted:

CIU   48   721798   29.26 %
PSC   23   382836   15.52 %
ERC-CAT SÍ   20   327781   13.29 %
PP   19   324687   13.16 %
ICV-EUIA   13   248201   10.06 %
C'S   9   192848   7.81 %
CUP-ALT.ESQUERRES   3   84733   3.43 %


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on November 25, 2012, 04:14:37 PM
Ther's a seat in dispute between CiU, PSC and PP, but the outcome is pretty clear: it's a major setback for Artur Mas. 

With 84.3% counted:

CIU   49   909314   29.84 %
PSC   22   457240   15 %
ERC-CAT SÍ   20   409057   13.42 %
PP   19   401318   13.17 %
ICV-EUIA   13   304999   10.01 %
C'S   9   236139   7.75 %
CUP-ALT.ESQUERRES   3   105580   3.46 %

I was looking random municipalities in the metropolitan area of Barcelona and there's a incredible split of the vote. In Badalona PSC is getting a plurality with less than 20%. In the city of Barcelona CiU is ahead with 28.9%; PP gets 14.9%; ERC 12.95%; PSC 12.6%; ICV-EUia 12; C's 8.3% and CUP 3.9%.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on November 25, 2012, 05:34:38 PM
Not bad. I'd have never guessed CiU would lose more seats than PSC :) BTW, great night for Joan Herrera and Albert Rivera, two young, honest politicians with a new style of campaigning. Pere Navarro should learn something from them!


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on November 25, 2012, 06:18:44 PM
I guess that the result will remain unchanged

98.73% counted. Turnout 69.32%, the highest ever.

CIU   50   1095488   30.59 %
ERC-CAT SÍ   21   488834   13.65 %
PSC   20   518226   14.47 %
PP   19   466623   13.03 %
ICV-EUIA   13   355014   9.91 %
C'S   9   272512   7.61 %
CUP   3   124574   3.47 %

Finally ERC replaces PSC as second force in the parliament, although PSC is still the 2nd party by popular vote. The discordance between PSC and ERC results is due to the malapportionment; PSC performs better in the province of Barcelona and ERC in the rest. CiU breaks 30% and gets 50 seats, but it's still a horrible result.

By province:
Barcelona: CiU 26 28%; PSC 14 15.4%; PP 12 13.3%; ERC 12 12.7%; ICV-EUiA 10 11.2%; C's 8 8.5%; CUP 3 3.4%
Girona: CiU 9 42.9%; ERC 3 17.7%; PSC 2 10.1%; PP 2 9.6%; ICV-EUiA 1 5.9%; CUP 4.2%; C's 3.6%
Tarragona: CiU 7 31.6%; ERC 3 15.1%; PP 3 15%; PSC 3 13.6%; C's 1 7.3%; ICV-EUiA 1 6.9%; CUP 3.6%
Lleida: CiU 8 43%; ERC 3 17.4%; PP 2 11.3%; PSC 1 10.4%; ICV-EUiA 1 5.4%; C's 3.4%; CUP 3%

CiU loses 12 seats and almost 8% of the vote.

PSC is second in Barcelona, 3rd in Girona and falls to the 4th place in Tarragona and Lleida (even when Angel Ros, the Lleida's mayor, was the head of list). Total loses: 8 seats and -4.4%. Catastrophic without palliative.

ERC gains 11 seats and is 6.65% up from 2010. 4th place in Barcelona and 2nd in the rest.

PP gains 1 seat and 0.6%; ICV-EUiA gains 3 seats and 2.5%; C's gains 6 seats and 4.3%; CUP is a new force and SI loses its 4 seats getting a miserable 1.3% of the vote (3.3% in 2010). The far-rightist PxC gets 1.65% of the vote and loses around 15000 votes.

BTW, great night for Joan Herrera and Albert Rivera, two young, honest politicians with a new style of campaigning. Pere Navarro should learn something from them!

I'm not particularly fond of Albert Rivera, but for sure he's one of the great winners of this night. The other is Oriol Junqueras, the mayor of Sant Vicenç dels Horts and ERC leader. Pretty good night for Herrera as well; in several places of the 'red belt' around Barcelona ICV came second.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on November 26, 2012, 03:48:06 AM
Results of four principal forces by comarca. The color scale is the same for these two maps. ICV, C's and CUP will go in another map; maybe with another scale.

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Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on November 26, 2012, 07:23:42 AM
ICV-EUiA, C's and CUP by comarca. Whereas the intervals of above are 5%, for this map the color scale has a 3% interval. Some highlights: ICV gets 13% in the Baix Llobregat and 12% in Barcelonès (in the city of Barcelona itself it's very close to PSC, which came 4th). In the Tarragonès comarcaCiutadans got 11.6% of the vote and also got above 10% in the Baix Llobregat; pretty spectacular. The best comarca for the CUP was Priorat, in Tarragona province, with 8.7%. If you have questions, I'll try to answer them.

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Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 26, 2012, 08:44:26 AM
Well this could easily have been significantly more depressing.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: YL on November 26, 2012, 05:01:47 PM
This rather poor result for Mas doesn't exactly fit the media narrative we'd been getting.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 26, 2012, 06:35:45 PM
This rather poor result for Mas doesn't exactly fit the media narrative we'd been getting.

To say the least.

To our Spanish posters: is this rather less emphatic win than expected seen as a surprise, or was it just the media elsewhere that cocked up?


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Niemeyerite on November 26, 2012, 08:01:27 PM
This rather poor result for Mas doesn't exactly fit the media narrative we'd been getting.

To say the least.

To our Spanish posters: is this rather less emphatic win than expected seen as a surprise, or was it just the media elsewhere that cocked up?

It was a huge surprise, really. We weren't expecting that. I wasn't expecting an absolute majority for Mas, either, but if a poll had CiU with 55 seats, I'd call them hacks... I was expecting a good night for ERC, as I predicted some voters would prefer those who've always been independentists than the man who's just become a radical independentist.
So, this is my message to Rubalcaba: don't try to say the same IU leaders say. People would vote for IU instead of you.

The question now is: should Artur Mas step down? Because last night was devastating for CiU. They called for early elections in order to get a huge majority and they lost 12 seats. LoL. Mas is a clown.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on November 27, 2012, 03:09:17 AM
Results in Barcelona Metropolitan Region by municipality, with an inset with results by district in the city of Barcelona. CiU suffered its major losses in this area, despite winning a plurality in all comarcas but the Baix Llobregat (PSC 20.1%; CiU 19.8%) Turnout in the 'red belt' was higher than ever and perhaps this helped to halt PSC's cropper. But vote in Barcelona's periphery is more splitted than ever (notice how pale is the colour red there), with spectacular results for Ciutadans. ICV gained ground, as well ERC and the CUP. ERC managed to win a plurality in Sant Vicenç dels Horts (ERC leader Oriol Junqueras is the mayor there), ICV won in Montornés del Vallès and got very good results in places such as El Prat, Cornellà, Montmeló, La Llagosta...in two districts of Barcelona came second (Ciutat Vella and Sant Martí). PSC's result in the city of Barcelona can be considered catastrophic, although the party won a plurality in Nou Barris. In Sarriá-Sant Gervasi came 6th with less votes than C's. In Terrassa, Pere Navarro's fiefdom, CiU won a plurality with 24.74% and PSC came second with 23.51%.

()


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on November 27, 2012, 04:36:29 AM
This rather poor result for Mas doesn't exactly fit the media narrative we'd been getting.

To say the least.

To our Spanish posters: is this rather less emphatic win than expected seen as a surprise, or was it just the media elsewhere that cocked up?

Everybody, here and outside, expected a better outcome for Artur Mas. Basically, there's still a sovereignist majority in the Catalonian Parliament. The balance between nationalists and non-nationalists remains unchanged but with a major internal redistribution. On the nationalist ground ERC is the one who gathers the earnings of the debate on identity, recovering the area that lost to CiU's hands in 2010. ERC result last Sunday is pretty similar to 2006 election. In the non-nationalistic* field, the PSC sinks a bit more, the PP is kept well thanks to the polarization of this campaign, but the one who gathers the major earnings is Albert Rivera and his party. Ciutadans is a party arisen from the rejection of a series of intellectual and Catalan personalities to the commanding nationalism since 1980. Rivera, which was done by the leadership being only 25 year-old, has managed to add new elements to the classic anti-nationalistic speech attacking the corruption in CiU's environment and PP-PSC's nonchalance on this matter. Of course allegations in the last days could be seen as a campaign against Mas, but corruption in several levels of Catalonia's administration is a fact. In addition he has damaged PSC penetrating into the critique to the internal incoherency of the Catalan socialists on the identity debate and the Right to Decide. And then we have ICV -more successful than PSC sailing between the two main streams- and the CUP, an anti-capitalist and independentist group which works very well at the local level and receives a lot of sympathy from the 'real left'.

*I fell in the usual dialectic trap. Where I wrote "non-nationalist" read "non-Catalan nationalist", please. There's a Spain's centralist nationalism that must be kept in mind.


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on November 28, 2012, 07:07:50 PM
After the elections, Artur Mas has asked for help to govern, looking principally at ERC though not rejecting PSC. Of course, the bridges between CiU and PP are broken, so the support from the conservatives governing in Madrid to the cutbacks agenda is over. ERC said no to a coalition government, but Oriol Junqueras offers not putting obstacles to Mas' investiture:

Quote
The Catalan Republican Left (ERC), which emerged as the second political force in the region after last Sunday’s elections, says it does not want to form a coalition government with acting Generalitat leader Artur Mas’ right-leaning CiU nationalist bloc, but has offered to provide it with parliamentary stability.

ERC leader Oriol Junqueras met formally with Mas for the first time Wednesday lunchtime after the pair had shared a phone conversation the previous day. According to ERC sources, Junqueras communicated his willingness to enable the investiture of the CiU leader as regional premier and the setting up of the new government.

However, he preferred to remain on the outside and play a part as a “responsible opposition.” The ERC says it is willing to work with CiU as long as it openly commits to holding a referendum on Catalan independence.
http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/11/28/inenglish/1354135056_544260.html

Junqueras also stated that he doesn't see the reason to deliver the opposition leadership to "a centralist party". It's not a good translation: he said exactly "españolista", which means Spain's nationalist, also all of those opposed to independence in the polarized environment of Catalonia nowadays are "españolistas". CiU and PSC consider unviable to reach an agreement of government.

Misfortunes for PSC don't finish after the election day. The PSC's number two, Daniel Fernández, and the mayor of Sabadell, Manuel Bustos, are involved in a corruption scandal that has arisen this week:

Quote
The anti-corruption net thrown out by the District Attorney’s Office and Catalonia’s Mossos d’Esquadra police force in Sabadell on Tuesday has so far reeled in 12 arrests, with a further 26 people under investigation. Among the detainees is the city mayor, who also chairs the Catalonia Federation of Municipalities, Manuel Bustos, who has been officially named as a suspect in a case that involves other high-ranking members of the regional Socialist Party (PSC), including its number two Daniel Fernández.

The investigation centers on alleged payments of 120,000 euros a time made by companies wishing to do business with the city of Sabadell, which were charged as “down payments.” Prosecutors stated that these payments were then shared out between politicians and government officials. After the award of contracts, a further fee of three percent of their value would be paid to a lawyer’s office.

Both Bustos and Fernández voluntarily stepped down from their official duties with the PSC. “I am not considering resigning as mayor because I am innocent,” said Bustos. “I have nothing to hide and I will dedicate myself to recovering the honor of the city council and my own.” Similarly, Fernández is still a member of Congress and is due to take a seat in the Catalan parliament following last Sunday’s elections. (...)
http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/11/28/inenglish/1354116623_111812.html

Meanwhile, Carme Chacón states to The Guardian that Spain is prepared to have a woman as PM. "I'm Catalan, I'm Spanish, I'm Europen", she says. Then she tries to explain why  she thinks federalism is the answer. Certainly I believe that it is, but the problem might be in the joint of the offer.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/28/catalonia-carme-chacon



Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on December 12, 2012, 10:38:34 PM
There's little doubt, Mas will be elected President by the Catalan Parliament. CiU and ERC have still differences on economic matters but there's a manifest will to cooperate, especially because they have common (and obvious) interests :

http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/12/12/inenglish/1355341763_404278.html

Quote
The center-right Catalan nationalist bloc CiU and the Catalan Republican Left (ERC) on Wednesday reached an agreement to call for a referendum on independence for Catalonia within two years.

The deal paves the way for Artur Mas to remain premier of the region (...) The two sides still have to agree on the budget for next year. The accord on the referendum states that it must be held before the end of 2014 but does not give a specific date.

On the other hand the Minister of Education, José Ignacio Wert, is still able to join the catalanist parties against him:

Quote
In a parallel development, the CiU, the ERC and other Catalan parties — with the exception of the local branch of the ruling Popular Party (and Ciutadans, the addition is mine) — reached an agreement not to implement the reform of the education system put forward by Education Minister José Ignacio Wert, which restores Castilian Spanish to the same level in the classroom as co-official regional languages such as Basque or Catalan (...)

The Catalan Education Law promotes the immersion in the Catalan language as a way to protecting it and extending its use. In spite of criticism against this law, nobody feels that the  (Castilian) Spanish language is threatened in Catalonia.

Some people think that Wert is like a fighting bull, other think that Wert isn't alone nor is a free verse. Antoni Gutiérrez-Rubí, a political consultant, thinks that it's a political offensive promoted by PP destined among other things to "denying the character of linguistic unit of the Catalan" (it's also spoken in Valencia and the Balearic Islands, usually PP strongholds), associating the promotion of Catalan to a "supposed pan-catalanist will", linking its use to nationalism and considering it as an unnecessary expense", questioning PSOE's capacity as a party with a vision of state...

Felip Puig, the conseller or regional secretary of Interior, has been placed in evidence on having denied that Mossos de Esquadra (Catalan police) used rubber missiles against demonstrators in the past general strike on November 14.  A woman lost the eye for these missiles and someone recorded in video the policemen shooting them. The police in Catalonia are also sadly famous for the unnecessary brutality towards certain persons in detention inside its dependencies. PSC and ICV have asked for Puig's resignation


Title: Re: Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012
Post by: Velasco on December 14, 2012, 06:11:26 PM
Finally CiU and ERC sealed a deal and Mas will be President de la Generalitat, that is to say, Catalan premier. However...

Quote
To reach the accord, the conservative CiU had to make painful concessions to its leftwing partner particularly in the area of taxes. ERC demanded hikes in levies that will mainly affect higher income earners, the natural constituency of the bloc. Unió Democràtica, the junior partner in the CiU alliance was particularly reluctant to cede ground in these areas (...)

ERC insisted on reintroducing an inheritance tax and on an increase in the wealth tax in turn for its support. The new government needs to find budget savings of four billion euros in next year’s budget in order to meet the deficit target set for it by the central government.

ERC expects the government to take in one billion euros from these tax measures, which will help reduce the weight of spending cuts that have to be found to meet the deficit goal. The rescindment of the inheritance tax was one of the key policies of the current Mas administration.

In his weekly letter posted on the party’s website, Unió Democràtica leader Josep Antoni Duran i Lleida said the alliance with ERC would not be easy because of the economic crisis and because the two groups have “different cultures of governing.”
http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/12/14/inenglish/1355493361_807491.html

Anyways I find Catalan politics increasingly boring or maybe I'm finding myself increasingly angry with Catalan politicians which, on the other hand, are not so different in other places. Please, keep this woman in your thoughts, at least a little bit bit:

Police chief resigns over woman who lost eye during strike demonstrations

Quote
In less than a month, the interior department of Catalonia’s regional government has given three versions of the same story. But one fact remains clear: on November 14, during demonstrations stemming from the general strike that day, a woman called Ester Quintana lost an eye. What is yet to be clarified is whether she was struck by a projectile fired by the Mossos d’Esquadra regional police, or whether the object came from another source, as the authorities have argued.

The claims and counterclaims that so far characterize the case have cost the head of Catalonia’s regional interior department, Felip Puig, all credibility. And on Thursday, one of the Mossos police chiefs involved in the controversy, Sergi Pla, tendered his resignation.

What caused the injuries suffered by Quintana has become the crucial question, throwing into doubt the transparency of the Mossos and calling into question whether its political leaders can be trusted.

The latest version offered up by the Barcelona authorities is that the Catalan police did indeed fire their weapons in the area where Quintana lost her eye. Police sources say that officers launched projectiles at least six times between the Paseo de Gracia and other adjoining streets on that day. That information is confirmed in a police report dated November 21.

Ester Quintana ended up blind in one eye after being hit by a projectile
The region’s interior department admitted on Wednesday that their original claims that there was just one round and two blanks fired in the area where Ester Quintana was injured was untrue. The new version offered is that the police fired several foam rounds, which do not bounce when they hit the floor, unlike rubber bullets.

The day of the general strike ended with police charges in Barcelona’s Laietana area, after an alternative demonstration degenerated into disturbances. The next day interior chief Puig was asked about the injuries sustained by Quintana. He responded by saying that the police were investigating the facts but that no officer had fired a weapon around the Casp and Paseo de Gràcia streets, where she sustained the injuries that left her blind in her left eye.

On December 3, Puig spoke about the case once more in the Catalan parliament. Again he denied claims that any kind of shot was fired in that area, including crowd control rounds such as rubber bullets. Just two blank salvos were fired, he insisted.

That was Puig’s official line until last Thursday, when a video emerged showing an officer discharging his weapon just 100 meters from where Quintana was hurt. The revelation contradicted everything the interior chief had said up to that point, a situation that worsened the next day. On December 7, the chief of police, Manel Prat, called for explanations, and discovered that a police report dated November 21 confirmed what was clear from the video.

Whether or not the police caused her injuries is now the crucial question
Despite the evidence, the interior department is still insisting that Quintana was not hurt by a projectile fired by the police, and that the police did not use rubber bullets. The 42-year-old is in the process of taking the Mossos to court for her injuries, and the judge in charge of the case has requested all CCTV footage from the businesses in the area in an attempt to clarify what exactly struck her eye. The judge has also called for traffic-camera footage as well as reports on the activities of the riot officers on the day of the strike.

Quintana’s lawyers have supplied a number of images and photos in an attempt to demonstrate that the police are responsible for her injuries.

The chief of police, Manel Prat, has said that he is “disgusted” at the fact that Puig was not given the police report that contained information about the police charges that night, and has directly accused the Mossos chiefs of concealing it.

“In the chain of command, a report that we consider to be relevant was considered by one person to not be sufficiently relevant,” Prat told the TV3 regional channel. According to sources from the interior department, the report was delivered to the head of the Brigada Mòbil riot police unit, but was not passed any further up the chain of command.

A number of sources were already suggesting that the incident would lead to the resignation or sacking of one of the heads of the General Operation Resources unit, which is responsible for the riot police. And so it came to pass, with the announcement on Thursday that the head of that department, Sergi Pla, was to resign.

“Puig has a problem: either he’s lying, or he doesn’t have a clue what’s going on in the Mossos,” said the ICV-EUiA deputy Jaume Bosch this week. “And that’s the result of his policy of arrogance that has characterized his legislature, scorning any criticism.”

Bosch also complained about the fact that Puig had given his explanations behind closed doors, and called on him to resign from his position before a new government is formed in the region.

Joining the chorus of criticism is the CCOO’s police labor union, which described the management of the case and the explanations offered as “unacceptable.” It also said that it was “irresponsible” for the interior department to criticize the Mossos and slammed Puig for not having taken the trouble to get all the information in the first place. “Puig’s word, and by extension, that of the interior department and the police, has been thrown into doubt.”

http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/12/13/inenglish/1355413536_960092.html

My opinion is that Puig's attitude has a name. In Catalan has two words: poca vergonya. In English I'd say that Felip Puig is a villain, a shameless person, a rotter or something in the style.

Thanks for your attention.