Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on August 23, 2012, 12:35:53 AM



Title: New Quinnipiac polls of FL, OH & WI to be released @ 7am today
Post by: Tender Branson on August 23, 2012, 12:35:53 AM
Preview:

Quote
The Romney-Ryan proposal to reshape Medicare is deeply unpopular in the key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin, according to new polls that found that more likely voters in each state trust President Barack Obama to handle Medicare.

The Medicare debate was catapulted to the forefront of the presidential campaign this month when Mitt Romney announced that his running mate would be Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., who is perhaps best known for proposing a budget plan — supported by Romney — to overhaul Medicare to rein in its costs.

Medicare ranks as the third most crucial issue to likely voters in Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin — behind the economy and health care, according to new Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News polls of the three swing states.

Roughly 6 in 10 likely voters in each state want Medicare to continue providing health insurance to senior citizens the way it does today; fewer than a third of those polled said Medicare should be changed to a system in which the government gives senior citizens fixed amounts of money to buy health insurance or Medicare insurance, as Romney and Ryan have proposed.

About 60 percent of independent voters in the three states support keeping Medicare as it is today, as do at least 8 in 10 Democrats. Republicans are closely divided on the issue in Florida and Ohio, but in Wisconsin, Ryan's home state, a majority of Republicans support changing it along the lines he has proposed.

The telephone polls, conducted Aug. 15 through Tuesday, have a 3-percentage-point margin of error.

http://www.statesman.com/news/nation/polls-find-medicare-key-issue-in-3-swing-2440330.html

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute

Also, a new University of Cincinnati poll for Ohio will be released later today.

UoC is historically the most accurate pollster in Ohio, so better we take a close look at this one.

http://www.ipr.uc.edu/OhioPoll/ViewPressReleases.html


Title: Re: New Quinnipiac polls of FL, OH & WI to be released @ 7am today
Post by: Eraserhead on August 23, 2012, 02:27:53 AM
I have a feeling Obama will lead in all three states.


Title: Re: New Quinnipiac polls of FL, OH & WI to be released @ 7am today
Post by: PittsburghSean on August 23, 2012, 02:53:52 AM
I predict Obama will be losing in Ohio and Florida; while Wisconsin is neck and neck.


Title: Re: New Quinnipiac polls of FL, OH & WI to be released @ 7am today
Post by: philly09 on August 23, 2012, 06:00:41 AM
Here are the results

Florida:

Obama: 49

Romney: 46

Don't Know: 5

Ohio:

Obama: 50

Romney: 44

Don't Know: 4

Wisconsin:

Obama:49

Romney: 47

Don't Know: 3



Title: Re: New Quinnipiac polls of FL, OH & WI to be released @ 7am today
Post by: Mr.Phips on August 23, 2012, 07:07:24 AM
Here are the results

Florida:

Obama: 49

Romney: 46

Don't Know: 5

Ohio:

Obama: 50

Romney: 44

Don't Know: 4

Wisconsin:

Obama:49

Romney: 47

Don't Know: 3



Have a link?


Title: Re: New Quinnipiac polls of FL, OH & WI to be released @ 7am today
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on August 23, 2012, 07:44:21 AM
http://www.abcactionnews.com/dpp/news/political/quinnipiac-university-cbs-news-new-york-times-poll-obama-has-small-lead-in-key-swing-states

So they like Ryan, but not his plan, which makes sense.  What interest would seniors and working class voters have in gutting Medicare?  Obamacare is hardly popular; but that doesn't mean that voters aren't for a working healthcare system, which at the very least Obama and the Democrats are perceived to be working towards.  

Nonetheless, I"m surprised to see Obama up 6 in any poll of Ohio and would like to see some internals.  

NOTE: this is a LIKELY voter survey.


Title: Re: New Quinnipiac polls of FL, OH & WI to be released @ 7am today
Post by: Lief 🗽 on August 23, 2012, 08:40:13 AM
Nice.


Title: Re: New Quinnipiac polls of FL, OH & WI to be released @ 7am today
Post by: Vern on August 23, 2012, 09:18:09 AM
None of this polls line up with other polls..


Title: Re: New Quinnipiac polls of FL, OH & WI to be released @ 7am today
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on August 23, 2012, 09:30:48 AM
None of this polls line up with other polls..

Actually, yes, they do.


Title: Re: New Quinnipiac polls of FL, OH & WI to be released @ 7am today
Post by: Eraserhead on August 23, 2012, 09:58:38 AM
Obama could actually do better in OH and FL than WI? Finally, this election is producing something interesting...

(Also, I called the results. :P )


Title: Re: New Quinnipiac polls of FL, OH & WI to be released @ 7am today
Post by: Gass3268 on August 23, 2012, 10:28:35 AM
Loving those Ohio numbers!!!


Title: Re: New Quinnipiac polls of FL, OH & WI to be released @ 7am today
Post by: MorningInAmerica on August 23, 2012, 10:38:12 AM
I'd like to point out that all these results but Ohio represent an IMPROVEMENT for Romney from Quinnipiac's last results. Remember last months Q polls of OH, FL, and WI and how well Obama did in them?

WI LAST MONTH
Obama 51%
Romney 45%
So 49-47% this month represents a fair improvement

FL LAST MONTH
Obama 51%
Romney 45%
So 49-46% this month represents a fair improvement

OH Last Month
Obama - 50%
Romney 44%
So Ohio has seen no change since last month.


Party ID on that Wisconsin Poll is D+4. 2008 exit poll data indicated turnout in WI was D+6 that year. 2012 Recall turnout was R+1. PPP's recent WI poll sample was R+2.

Party ID on that Florida poll is utterly bizarre. It's D+6, which is even more DEM friendly than 2008 turnout (which was D+3).

Party ID on that Ohio poll is D+8. It was D+8 in 2008.


Also, Guardian poll analyzer Harry Enten notes this:
Quote
@ForecasterEnten: Note that Q-pac is getting some of the more Dem leaning results in OH and FL. Better to use an aggregate than any 1 poll in reporting.

At least Yahoo notices the polling improvement for Romney. Here's the headline: Obama holds lead in Ohio, but slips in Florida and Wisconsin, poll shows
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/obama-holds-lead-ohio-slips-florida-wisconsin-poll-104836458.html?_esi=1


Title: Re: New Quinnipiac polls of FL, OH & WI to be released @ 7am today
Post by: President von Cat on August 23, 2012, 10:57:54 AM
ROMNING AHEAD TO VICTORY

oh... wait...


Title: Re: New Quinnipiac polls of FL, OH & WI to be released @ 7am today
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on August 23, 2012, 11:47:37 AM
I'd like to point out that all these results but Ohio represent an IMPROVEMENT for Romney from Quinnipiac's last results. Remember last months Q polls of OH, FL, and WI and how well Obama did in them?

WI LAST MONTH
Obama 51%
Romney 45%
So 49-47% this month represents a fair improvement

FL LAST MONTH
Obama 51%
Romney 45%
So 49-46% this month represents a fair improvement

OH Last Month
Obama - 50%
Romney 44%
So Ohio has seen no change since last month.


Party ID on that Wisconsin Poll is D+4. 2008 exit poll data indicated turnout in WI was D+6 that year. 2012 Recall turnout was R+1. PPP's recent WI poll sample was R+2.

Party ID on that Florida poll is utterly bizarre. It's D+6, which is even more DEM friendly than 2008 turnout (which was D+3).

Party ID on that Ohio poll is D+8. It was D+8 in 2008.


Also, Guardian poll analyzer Harry Enten notes this:
Quote
@ForecasterEnten: Note that Q-pac is getting some of the more Dem leaning results in OH and FL. Better to use an aggregate than any 1 poll in reporting.

At least Yahoo notices the polling improvement for Romney. Here's the headline: Obama holds lead in Ohio, but slips in Florida and Wisconsin, poll shows
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/obama-holds-lead-ohio-slips-florida-wisconsin-poll-104836458.html?_esi=1

I see nothing truly terrible about the internals.  Florida is probably within 1-2 pts, not a 3 pt lead for Obama.  Wisconsin is going thru it's Ryan bounce.  As for identical registration advantage for this poll and 2008 in Ohio... I can buy it in Ohio more so than other states, Romney just does not seem to have traction there. 


Title: Re: New Quinnipiac polls of FL, OH & WI to be released @ 7am today
Post by: Comrade Funk on August 23, 2012, 12:03:46 PM
So much for Ryanmentum.


Title: Re: New Quinnipiac polls of FL, OH & WI to be released @ 7am today
Post by: Supersonic on August 23, 2012, 12:11:43 PM
The Party ID's, especially in Florida, are simply bizarre.

In Wisconsin and Florida, Romney improved from Q's last poll despite the very Democratic sample. While he stays the same in Ohio under a D+8 (!) sample.

To be honest, I don't feel that is shabby at all. Under a more realistic D+2/3 sample, Romney/Ryan would probably be leading in Florida, Wisconsin and be very close in Ohio.


Title: Re: New Quinnipiac polls of FL, OH & WI to be released @ 7am today
Post by: MorningInAmerica on August 23, 2012, 12:23:39 PM

You must have missed the part where Obama slipped in two states (Fl and WI), and stayed the same in one (OH).


Title: Re: New Quinnipiac polls of FL, OH & WI to be released @ 7am today
Post by: Umengus on August 23, 2012, 12:43:06 PM
with samples corrected, Romney ahead in OH, FL and WI


Title: Re: New Quinnipiac polls of FL, OH & WI to be released @ 7am today
Post by: Likely Voter on August 23, 2012, 12:54:06 PM
with samples corrected, Romney ahead in OH, FL and WI

Corrected?  You went to the future and found out with the actual vote Party ID was? Why not just tell us who won?


Title: Re: New Quinnipiac polls of FL, OH & WI to be released @ 7am today
Post by: Eraserhead on August 23, 2012, 12:59:19 PM
with samples corrected, Romney ahead in OH, FL and WI

With the samples corrected*, Rocky Anderson leads in all three! :)

*Changed to what I want them to be.


Title: Re: New Quinnipiac polls of FL, OH & WI to be released @ 7am today
Post by: Comrade Funk on August 23, 2012, 01:03:13 PM

You must have missed the part where Obama slipped in two states (Fl and WI), and stayed the same in one (OH).
Considering how Republicans have been whining on how you're suddenly winning some of these states, yes, "Ryanmentum" is BS.


Title: Re: New Quinnipiac polls of FL, OH & WI to be released @ 7am today
Post by: pepper11 on August 23, 2012, 01:41:13 PM

You must have missed the part where Obama slipped in two states (Fl and WI), and stayed the same in one (OH).
Considering how Republicans have been whining on how you're suddenly winning some of these states, yes, "Ryanmentum" is BS.

Obama is a slight favorite. Ryan has helped Romney in recent swing state polling. The two are not mutually exclusive.