Talk Elections

I know we have this in many different places, but it would be nice to have it all here.

I'll start with Pennsylvania:

District Kerry Bush PVI

PA-1 77.2% 22.8% D+28
PA-2 89.3% 10.7% D+39
PA-3 45.3% 54.7% R+5
PA-4 38.3% 61.7% R+9
PA-5 42.1% 57.9% R+6
PA-6 46.8% 53.2% R+1
PA-7 47.1% 52.9% R+2
PA-8 50.6% 49.4% D+1
PA-9 40.1% 59.9% R+10
PA-10 36.5% 63.5% R+11
PA-11 41.9% 58.1% R+6
PA-12 45.7% 54.3% R+6
PA-13 60.8% 39.2% D+12
PA-14 67.7% 32.3% D+17
PA-15 46% 54% R+2
PA-16 40.8% 59.2% R+5
PA-17 53.3% 46.7% D+4
PA-18 45.4% 54.6% R+6

The Republican districts in NC are remarkably consistent; they're all 63%-ish Bush:

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Texas

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This thread is fcking awesome.

Those new county splits are going to be annoying when I break down AR results by CD for the next decade.

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Here are the states we've done plus a few more obvious states:

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Anyone have California numbers for Bush v Kerry? Or could you guide me to the thread where I can find it?

New York and Florida too... :)

Here's Illinois, with thanks to Krazen:

CD 1: 76/22, 80/18, D+28
CD 2: 74/24, 81/18, D+27
CD 3: 53/45, 57/40, D+5
CD 4: 71/26, 79/18, D+26
CD 5: 63/35, 69/29, D+16
CD 6: 41/58, 51/47, R+5
CD 7: 83/14, 89/9, D+37
CD 8: 50/48, 61/37, D+5
CD 9: 63/35, 68/30, D+15
CD 10: 53/45, 63/35, D+8
CD 11: 50/48, 61/37, D+5
CD 12: 50/48, 55/43, D+2
CD 13: 47/50, 54/43, D+1
CD 14: 38/60, 50/48, R+6
CD 15: 36/61, 42/55, R+11
CD 16: 43/56, 50/48, R+4
CD 17: 53/45, 60/38, D+6
CD 18: 37/61, 44/54, R+10

Harrumph.

Yes, I linked that post to Mr. Miles. He should not have give me credit.

Ahhh...I'm sorry moun.

I think I was just about to lose power in the hurricane last week when I posted that; I sent Krazen a PM asking about the IL numbers and just hastily copied the ones he gave me without checking the source.

No problem. I do think this project is useful. Presumably the numbers must be around the web for other states, since PVIs have been calculated and they need both 04 and 08 results. If you have PVIs and 08, you can reverse the calculation to get the 04 set.

Miles to you have the exact numbers for New Mexico and/or West Virginia?

Both of those maps are more or less unchanged from their old iterations.  

In WV they only moved Mason county from CD2 to CD3. The NM districts were also pretty much intact. According to DKE's distribution chart (http://[url=https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Alsvry-H7IrgdE9Gd3VKeFNhUGszd3NHREg4YWlUN3c#gid=31), CD1 and CD3 keep virtually 100% of their old voters while CD2 likewise retains 96.5% of its current electorate.

So, I just pulled the 2004 numbers from the Swing State Project's Pres-by-CD chart  (http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/presidential-results-by-congressional-district-20002008)for the old districts.

If anyone is interested in breaking down the numbers for Georgia, I just dug up precinct-level results for 2004 from the SoS.  (http://www.sos.ga.gov/elections/election_results/2004_1102/precincts.htm)

New Jersey.


District   Kerry   Bush   PVI   Gore   Bush   2004PVI
1   60.50%   39.50%   D+12   65.40%   34.60%   D+13
2   49.10%   50.90%   EVEN   55.70%   44.30%   D+3
3   47.90%   52.10%   R+1   54.60%   45.40%   D+2
4   42.50%   57.50%   R+7   49.90%   50.10%   R+3
5   45.70%   54.30%   R+4   50.60%   49.40%   R+1
6   55.30%   44.70%   D+6   61.40%   38.60%   D+9
7   43%   57%   R+6   44.80%   55.20%   R+6
8   68.90%   31.10%   D+20   73.20%   26.80%   D+22
9   60.60%   39.40%   D+11   64.90%   35.10%   D+13
10   81.40%   18.60%   D+32   83.60%   16.40%   D+33
11   42.50%   57.50%   R+6   45.30%   54.70%   R+6
12   61.40%   38.60%   D+13   65.10%   34.90%   D+14

I crunched the numbers for Louisiana:

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CDs 2, 4, 5 all stayed remarkably stagnant from 2004 to 2008, with Obama and Kerry performing within a point or two of eachother.

The most salient swings against Obama were in Cajunland (CD3) and in the suburban New Orleans CD1, neither of which surprise me. CD3 swung 7.5 points against Obama, going from 60.5/38 Bush to 64/34 McCain. CD1 was similar, moving 8 points towards McCain; it shifted from 69/30 Bush to 73/25 McCain.

Other than that, CD6 also saw a noticeable Republican swing of 5.5 points; in 2004, it was 65/34 Bush but increased to 67.5/31 McCain in 2008.

I added a few states that were relatively unchanged after redistricting:

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And I started a 2004-2008 swing map:

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Also, WV is composed of whole counties, as is Iowa:

Kerry/Bush in Iowa   
IA-1   53.1-46.1
IA-2   52.5-46.5
IA-3   47.1-52.1
IA-4   44.2-55.0

I seem to recall New York being posted on DKE, but I couldn't find it with their search function.

Found it on RRH, though this is for the Special Master map.

Dist. Kerry Bush Clinton Lazio
1 49.3% 50.7% 40.7% 59.3%
2 49.5% 50.5% 41.2% 58.8%
3 51.8% 48.2% 44.9% 55.1%
4 54.4% 45.6% 47.3% 52.7%
5 84.8% 15.2% 83% 17%
6 60.1% 39.9% 57.6% 42.4%
7 81.5% 18.5% 81% 19%
8 80.3% 19.7% 80.9% 19.1%
9 83.3% 16.7% 84.3% 15.7%
10 72.2% 27.8% 69.2% 30.8%
11 43.4% 56.6% 42.8% 57.2%
12 76.8% 23.2% 71.8% 28.2%
13 91.7% 8.3% 90.3% 9.7%
14 70.7% 29.3% 71.1% 28.9%
15 91.8% 8.2% 93% 7%
16 68.1% 31.9% 63.6% 36.4%
17 54% 46% 48.8% 51.2%
18 46.2% 53.8% 40.6% 59.4%
19 48.7% 51.3% 44.2% 55.8%
20 55.9% 44.1% 54% 46%
21 47.1% 52.9% 45.5% 54.5%
22 46.3% 53.7% 45.6% 54.4%
23 45.1% 54.9% 44.5% 55.5%
24 52.2% 47.8% 51.4% 48.6%
25 52.1% 47.9% 49.8% 50.2%
26 63.4% 36.6% 63.3% 36.7%
27 42.6% 57.4% 43% 57%

Great find! I'll update the map soon.

Here's the holy grail for this thread. (http://cookpolitical.com/application/writable/uploads/2012_PVI_by_District.pdf) The Cook Political Report calculated the 2004/2008 PVI for every new district.

Great find, Miles! These appear to be the GOP/DEM incumbents running in Kerry/McCain seats.

Kerry/GOP

Walsh (IL-8)
Dold (IL-10)
Biggert (IL-11)
Schilling (IL-17)
Cravaack (MN-8)
Bass (NH-2)
Buerkle (NY-24)
Fitzpatrick (PA-8)

McCain/Dem

Barber (AZ-2)
Barrow (GA-12)
Chandler (KY-6)
Peterson (MN-7)
McIntyre (NC-7)
Kissell (NC-8)
Hochul (NY-27)
Critz (PA-12)
Matheson (UT-4)
Rahall (WV-3)

Here's what I've done so far from that report. More to come.

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And here we are.

Bush/Kerry 2004 by 2012 CDs:

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Swing:

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34 districts swung towards McCain; pretty much they're all where you expect they would be.

Also, 5 districts didn't experience a statistically significant swing either way [Barber (AZ), Wasserman-Schultz (FL), McCarthy (NY), Keating (MA), Tierney (MA)].

A trend map is in the works.

Nice! Lots of interesting stuff on the swing map in particular that.

WI doesn't look right, though - pretty sure WI-8 (the Green Bay district) had the largest swing.

Yeah, you're right. I'll fix it.

Great work Miles!

Miles, you are fantastic! Great work!

I hope you don't mind, but I borrowed your map to create a key map with the congressional districts shaded according to DRA. The map is slightly enlarged, to make some of the metropolitan areas easier to tell apart, and I smoothed the boundaries a little, as well. I just thought it might make it a little quicker when converting from table form to map.

I used this website (http://www.govtrack.us/congress/members) to identify the districts, and Muon's California maps uploaded here to identify the shades required. Any mistakes, however, are obviously my own.

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Smid, I really like how that map came out! You did a good job of integrating the smaller districts.

Glad you approve of it! You did all the hard work, I just tinkered at the edges. It's not perfect, of course, some of the limbs sticking off some districts are just too small to accurately portray. I also toyed with leaving the water area out of Tampa Bay (more like VA-02, LA-01, or the islands off Alaska, Massachusetts or California, or the ones in WA, for that matter).

I've started playing around with it for a Cook PVI map, using Earl's 15-shade Conservative vs Liberal colour scale, used for Canadian elections, but I don't think I'll post it because it's not the standard ten-shades used here for US elections. It's not quite complete yet, anyway.

EDIT: Removed the water part of FL-14, as discussed above.

Decided to upload it, even though it uses a different colour scale to that typically used by the Forum for US election results (full credit to Earl for creating this colour scale, which is saved in the Gallery in the "Miscellaneous" sub-folder). If someone wants to do it in the normal colour shades, I'm happy to pull this version down.

2012 Cook PVI by Congressional District (2004 & 2008 Presidential Results)
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EDIT: Corrected errors in OR-04 and OR-05. Don't know how that happened, perhaps I was looking at Oklahoma by mistake.

There's got to be a couple Kerry/GOP districts in California now.  CA-26, CA-31, CA-41, and possibly CA-52 come to mind. 

All of those voted for Bush. You might forget how strong the swing to Obama was, but Kerry didn't do nearly as well in California as Obama did.

Its crazy that Lazio won the 17th.

Im actually surprised Clinton won the 24th and that Lazio won the 25th.   

Yes, the combination of Obama overperforming among higher-income suburban whites, and Bush overperforming among Hispanics (though Cook's report mentions that CA-26 and CA-52 are too close to be confirmed).

Again, sorry about using Earl's colour scale, rather than the official one. I apologise in advance for any errors I may have made.

2004 Presidential Results by New Congressional Districts
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2008 Presidential Results by New Congressional Districts
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2004-2008 Presidential Swing by New Congressional Districts
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2004-2008 Presidential Trend by New Congressional Districts
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Biggest swings appear to be the 3 districts around Indianapolis and TX-34.

And HI :)

Good job Smid. I was going to make a trend map, but you've gotten that knocked out for me!

Glad you approve! I rather enjoyed doing it!

Why apologize for my colour scale? ;)

Because it's different to what's typically used on the site for US domestic election results. Your fifteen shades are my preference, which is why I used them, but I figured it's courteous to apologise for the inconsistency with previous maps. A few posts up, I directed posters who are interested in using your colour scheme to the location in the gallery (under "Miscellaneous") (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=7374).

BTW, does anyone know of a site (here or elsewhere) with racial data and/or area (sq. miles) for the new CD's?

I expect that the Census Bureau will have the data once the 113th Congress is convened.

Comparing the Kerry/Bush results before/after, in some states more relevant than 2008 (unlisted states stayed the same):

AZ - New CD narrowly for Bush
GA - Bishop's and Barrow's CD's go from narrowly Bush to safely Kerry and safely Bush
IL - goes from 10-9 Kerry to 12-6 Kerry; one Bush CD eliminated; Walsh and Biggert go from Bush to Kerry, narrowly for Biggert
IA - Boswell (Bush) and Latham (Bush) combined into one Bush CD
LA - lost a Bush CD
MA - lost a Kerry CD (all are/were Kerry CD's)
MI - lost a Bush CD (Peters, who is now in a black-majority CD)
MO - lost a Kerry CD
NV - Heck (NV-3) goes from narrowly Bush to safely Bush, and new (NV-4) is narrowly Bush
NJ - lost a Kerry CD
NY - all incumbents the same, with 2 Kerry seats (Turner, Hinchey) gone
NC - Brad Miller's old seat (NC-13) goes from Kerry to Bush
OH - goes from (Kerry-Bush) 5-13 to 4-12; Kaptur and Kucinich's Kerry CD's combined to one Kerry, likewise for Sutton and Ryan, Turner and Austria likewise for Bush, new Columbus CD Kerry
PA - Gerlach (PA-6) and Meehan (PA-7) go from Kerry to Bush, PA-7 narrowly; Fitzpatrick (PA-8) more narrowly Kerry, Barletta (PA-11) from Kerry to Bush, Holden's old seat (PA-17) from Bush to Kerry; Altmire (Bush) and Critz (Kerry) become one Bush CD
SC - gain Bush CD
TX - gain one Kerry CD and three Bush CD's
UT - gain Bush CD (all are/were Bush CD's)
VA - Connelly (VA-11) goes from narrowly Bush to safely Kerry
WA - new CD Kerry, and Reichert (WA-8) goes from Kerry to Bush
WI - Duffy (WI-7) goes from Kerry to Bush

Can someone try CA and FL, not sure which CD's best match up?

Looks like the pro-Republican bent is reflected in a 2004 numbers.