Talk Elections

New Poll: North Carolina Governor by Civitas Institute on 2012-9-6 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3700201296124)

Summary: D: 55%, R: 39%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Ryan-Biden-xtabs1.pdf)

One caveat: McCrory is winning 31% of black voters...quite a jump up from his 3% in 2008.

Just by doing some quick math in excel, if Dalton won blacks by a more feasible 90-10 margin, McCrory would be leading 50-45, which is in line with PPP.

Great news!

I suspect that Mr. McCrory has some favorable views in the Mecklenberg minority community and this time around he will do better with rural whites.

This actually sounds more like how the race feels. As someone who is currently living in NC, support for Dalton has always seemed flimsy to me. The Dem Gov primary was filled with people no one really wanted, mostly becaue of Gov. Bev's late announcement that she wouldn't seek reelection. I tend to doubt the polls showing it close. Plus, Nate Silver (aka, GOD) seems to think SurveyUSA is just great (and so do Dems on this board, when a Dem is doing well).

I looked at the minority vote in Charlotte and here are a few notes; as usual, I used DRA.

These are the precincts I looked at; they are the most heavily majority-minority or minority-plurality in the county:

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The electorate here is 52% black and hispanics and white each make up about 24% each.

McCrory got 20.3% in these precincts, which is actually worse than the Republican average of 21%; still its better than McCain's 16%.

So, yes, minority voters may have a favorable views of McCrory, but he's support with them isn't particularly strong.

As for rural whites Dalton is now starting to emphasize his small town roots in his ads, which should help, especially in areas of NC-10 and NC-11. What will hurt Dalton is the swing in the east; Perdue was very strong with her base along the east coast (in counties like Craven, Onslow, Carteret, etc.). Those voters are ordinarily conservative voters who are liable to revert to McCrory.

Obama won Mecklenburg by 100,110
Perdue won Mecklenburg by 337

Yes.

Still, that assessment factors in the white vote of Mecklenburg county. Obama made considerable inroads with that group. Obama actually won the Meckleburg portion of NC-09 (where blacks only make up 15% of the electorate) with 50%; the Democratic average there is about 43% and Perdue lost 63-35.

So, McCrory's prowess in Mecklenburg county had much more to do with his crossover supprt from suburban white voters than his appeal to minorities.

Yep 15% to 20% like I said they would when we say they had him up by so much amongst Indies.

They are probably over polling Republicans for one and secondly they are probably underpolling/mispolling minorities. They have a bad track record from my experience and so this doesn't surprise me.

You entered in this poll wrong...

This is part of the same batsh*t poll that had Romney leading by 10%, right?

OML

Thanks.