Talk Elections

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Hmm, the graphic is not really sharp. We'll have to wait for the news release I guess.

http://www.courier-journal.com

If the chart on the graphic is indeed the Obama/Romney matchup and not something else, Romney is probably ahead by something like 2:1 in Kentucky.

The chart implies that Romney has about 55-60% support and Obama 25-30%.

But it could be a chart for something else.

53-39

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20120916/NEWS0106/309160046/Romney-has-large-lead-Kentucky-Bluegrass-Poll-shows?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Home&nclick_check=1 (http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20120916/NEWS0106/309160046/Romney-has-large-lead-Kentucky-Bluegrass-Poll-shows?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Home&nclick_check=1)

3% Other 5% Undecided, 606 LV

Looks like Obama will do better in Kentucky than he did in 2008.  However at this rate, Kentucky won't be a tossup state until mid-century.

Improvement I guess.

Barack Obama remains a poor cultural match for Kentucky outside of Louisville, Frankfort, Lexington, and Covington.

In before Bandit claims fraud.

And the multimillionaire , Mormon from Massachusetts is a good cultural match?

It's about race nothing more nothing less, If Obama was a white man named Barry O'Neil, the numbers would be reversed.

Bill Clinton carried this state. I think if Hillary Clinton was on the ticket with Obama. He could carry Kentucky and Arkansas if Hillary campaigned hard in those states. I'm not sure why Joe Biden isn't a good fit in certain parts of Ky. He's a good fit in Scranton PA

Covington and its surrounding county is actually heavily Republican.

This from the pollster that claimed Romney was winning the 18-29 crowd in Colorado.

The city is Democratic though.

New Poll: Kentucky President by Survey USA on 2012-09-13 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2120120913019)

Summary: D: 39%, R: 53%, I: 3%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20120916/NEWS0106/309160046/Romney-has-large-lead-Kentucky-Bluegrass-Poll-shows?odyssey=tab%7Ctopnews%7Ctext%7CHome&gcheck=1&nclick_check=1)

Kentucky is probably one of those 5 or 6 states that swings D in a close race.

"The best news in the poll for Obama came when people were asked who is more in touch with average working people — Obama got 44 percent to Romney’s 41 percent."

LOLz

Notice that even with a Republican pollster like SurveyUSA, Obama does better in Kentucky than he did last time.

The county-by-county trends are going to be somewhat interesting.

SUSA is a Republican pollster? They're quite crappy, in my opinion, but Kentucky and Washington are their best states.

What may be more significant -- if Kentucky is at all closer for President Obama, then Missouri (which has areas much like eastern Kentucky) gets much closer. Indiana is then in play because southern Indiana is culturally close to Kentucky.

That depends on whether the urban-rural split is widening, which is still unclear.

This poll says Romney wins the Louisville area by 10, but it's a 14-county area, not just Jefferson County.

I have a gut feeling Obama is going to pick up Marion County this time around.

Looks like Kentucky won't swing much if things stay the same.

95 percent of black people voted for Obama. You're quite right, it's all about race.

It's crazy how much things have changed in only 20 years. In the 1992 race, Clinton won Kentucky and New Jersey by about the same margin.

Not only that, but Campbell County used to be one of the very worst counties in Kentucky. It's still worse than average, but not that much worse.

I don't know much about Campbell County, KY. I assume it's a suburb of Cincinnati?

I was talking more about the realignment. It seems like most conservative Democrats in KY have moved into the R column. I see Kentucky as a safe Republican state for years to come.

Yes.


It won't be. Louisville and Lexington are growing too fast for that.

I'm happy to get a poll out of a state like Kentucky. All these Virginia, Ohio and Florida polls are boring.

Bandit: Do you have a map prediction for Kentucky this election?

I know I posted one a few months ago, but I don't know where it went.

Back in April, I made a map that has these counties flipping to Obama: Boyd, Mason, Robertson, Bath, Floyd, Woodford, Franklin, Carroll, Marion, Warren, Muhlenberg, Daviess, Union.

I doubt all of those counties would flip to Obama. In fact, I doubt most of them will even under the best of circumstances.

Outer ring suburban growth in Louisville and Lexington  will not be enough to create a major shift to the left in Kentucky. Most states, especially southern states, have to undergo a massive influx of millions of new residents before the politics change. We're talking about Florida or North Carolina growth rates. And to give you some numbers, Florida and North Carolina each grew by about 18% in the last decade. Kentucky grew by 7%.

If not the growth rates, what is it about Kentucky that leads you to believe it will become a swing state in the future? I really really just do not see it, and god knows I'd like to.

Because it didn't fall as far as the rest of the South did, so it doesn't have as far to climb.

But it doesn't work that way. Trends don't reverse themselves overnight. Kentucky has been trending R since 1996, and Obama did historically poorly in the only area of the state left that still supported Democrats (eastern Kentucky). Your belief isn't backed by any facts of hard data.

But he did historically well in Louisville and Lexington.

I bet Obama gets to 43-44% the way things are going...

He got 41 last time, so I think 45 is a real possibility.

Is there meaningful population growth in those areas that may potentially flip the state in the future?

Yes.

And there's meaningful population loss in the rural counties.

Tennessee will flip before Kentucky, and Tennessee ain't flipping.

Wasn't Romney up by only 1% in a TN poll?

I have KY for Romney and TN for Obama - so yes I could see it.

That was an outlier.

Except there has been no Tennessee poll that has had Romney up by more than 8...

Out of how many polls?  Safe GOP states are not being surveyed this year.

A lot of hackery on this thread. Obama aint winning Tennessee and he certainly aint winning Kentucky. He certainly could improve, but he's not the right Democrat to win these states, and I'm not sure any national Democratic candidate could make that happen right now. Romney is an acceptable choice for most of these voters solely because he's not Barack Obama.

Clinton could possibly make it happen, but he would also be receiving 55-56% of the vote nationally.

Hillary would win this state easily.

If Obama can't win it, Hillary won't.

I bet Kentuckians would love Brian Schweitzer though.

Haha no.

Really? Bill Clinton's victories there were pretty close and it was trending R even in 1996.

I think Bill would win it currently, but he would likely be winning by double digits nationwide.