Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: pa2011 on September 18, 2012, 05:40:05 PM

Title: NBC/Wall ST. Journal - Obama 50 Romney 45
Post by: pa2011 on September 18, 2012, 05:40:05 PM

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/18/13944838-nbcwsj-poll-obama-leads-romney-nationally-by-5-points?lite (http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/18/13944838-nbcwsj-poll-obama-leads-romney-nationally-by-5-points?lite)

Obama +5 likely. +6 registered

Title: Re: NBC/Wall ST. Journal - Obama 50 Romney 45
Post by: pa2011 on September 18, 2012, 05:42:15 PM

Ouch. Poll was taken even before the Romney video became news. And Obama holds a 53 to 34 lead over Romney on who cares for the middle class. Hard to see a path for Romney to win unless that narrows, significantly.

Title: Re: NBC/Wall ST. Journal - Obama 50 Romney 45
Post by: LiberalJunkie on September 18, 2012, 05:53:22 PM

Seems legit.

Title: Re: NBC/Wall ST. Journal - Obama 50 Romney 45
Post by: Likely Voter on September 18, 2012, 06:09:40 PM

Yeah the internals are not looking good for Romney. In August he led on the economy by 6, but now it is tied. Obama has extended or maintained lead in all other issues. If Obama has fought Romney to a draw on the economy, he wins.

Title: Re: NBC/Wall ST. Journal - Obama 50 Romney 45
Post by: Sbane on September 18, 2012, 06:21:36 PM

If Romney is even leading by just a few points on the economy, he has lost the election. Obama is just leading by too much on Medicare, taxes and on who is best for the middle class/ cares about people like me.

Title: Re: NBC/Wall ST. Journal - Obama 50 Romney 45
Post by: Eraserhead on September 18, 2012, 06:28:07 PM

And this is pre-47%... this is gonna get ugly for Mitt...

Title: Re: NBC/Wall ST. Journal - Obama 50 Romney 45
Post by: mondale84 on September 18, 2012, 06:43:18 PM

In before the party ID trolls :)

Title: Re: NBC/Wall ST. Journal - Obama 50 Romney 45
Post by: Likely Voter on September 18, 2012, 06:48:42 PM

Chuck Todd just explained how they determine LV vs. RV. They ask how interested you are in the election (1-10) and if you voted in 2008 or 2010. LVs are people who voted at least once in last two elections and rate their interest as a 6 or more.

It wasn't clear if there is any way for a first time voter to get into the LV screen. in 2008 11% were first time voters and Obama won them by 39 points

Title: Re: NBC/Wall ST. Journal - Obama 50 Romney 45
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 18, 2012, 07:11:24 PM

The change from their last poll in mid-August:

Obama: 50% (+2)
Romney: 45% (+1)

So the last poll was 48-44%, a 4 pt, as opposed to a 5 pt lead.

Title: Re: NBC/Wall ST. Journal - Obama 50 Romney 45
Post by: Eraserhead on September 18, 2012, 08:19:00 PM

Quote from: MorningInAmerica on September 18, 2012, 07:11:24 PM

The change from their last poll in mid-August:

Obama: 50% (+2)
Romney: 45% (+1)

So the last poll was 48-44%, a 4 pt, as opposed to a 5 pt lead.

The last poll was of registered voters only though, this one is of likely voters, so you can't really directly compare those numbers. Registered voters went 50%-44% in this one.

Interesting internal stuff: Obama's foreign policy numbers did take a significant hit in this poll but his economic numbers have improved.

Title: Re: NBC/Wall ST. Journal - Obama 50 Romney 45
Post by: Umengus on September 18, 2012, 11:49:33 PM