Talk Elections

PHOENIX -- The results of a surprising new poll in the U.S. Senate race were released Wednesday showing Democrat Richard Carmona beating his Republican rival.

The survey, which was conducted by a GOP-friendly firm, shows Carmona holding a 5-point edge over Jeff Flake.

Heading into the race, Flake was considered the heavy favorite to win in a state where Republicans hold a comfortable registration advantage over Democrats.

Officials with Flake's campaign declined to comment on the poll. But Flake's spokesman, Andrew Wilder, said, "We've always known this race is going to be a close one. That's why Jeff Flake is working hard to gain the trust of voters."

But a spokesman for Carmona's camp said they were pleased.

"We don't put too much weight in any poll, but this confirms what our campaign has been saying all along," said spokesman Andy Barr. "Dr. Carmona is a unique candidate with a background that appeals to Independents, Republicans, and Democrats."

Specifically, the numbers show Carmona with 44 percent and Flake with 39. But 16 percent of those questioned said they were undecided.

Of the 620 voters questioned, 37 percent were Republican, 34 percent were Democrat, and 29 percent were independent. The poll had a margin of error of 4 points.

The authors of the poll did not want to be identified because they were not authorized to release the details.

This comes on the heels of another survey released a couple of weeks ago showing Carmona trailing Flake by a single point.

More importantly for Carmona, the latest survey results continue a trend.

http://www.azfamily.com/news/Poll-Carmona-leading-Flake-170432726.html

Awesome, if true.

:)

Wait... why would the Reps release a poll showing the Dems up, despite all public polls showing Flake up?

oh. my. god.

This. At this rate, the Dems won't just keep the Senate, they'll GAIN seats! :o

Dems lose Nebraska but gain Massachusetts, Maine, Indiana, Arizona and Nevada. Dems end up with 57 seats

Maybe this will actually be a close race.

This was always certain to be a close(ish) race. This also remains an R-favored race.

Unlike the battle for 2013-4 Senate Control, which I think probably never was R-favored in real life. (But is still more realistic than a Romney presidency.)

As to this poll... something's odd. So this was leaked by a disaffected Flake staffer or what? (Note that the article's details make it clear enough the Flake campaign agree that that poll exists.)

Wave election anyone? No, not yet? Well in any case with the presidential race going the way it is, it might be time for most of us to give a lot more thought about what's going to happen in the House and the Senate.

This kind of sums up my thoughts:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gp5JCrSXkJY&feature=fvwrel

I have no idea what's going on this year at this point. We can't possibly end up gaining Senate seats, right? ..Right?

That's a tad ambitious but--and I can't believe I'm saying this--at this point, IF current trends continue, that's not an impossible outcome.

Maybe this is premature, but when a GOP internal shows Camorana up 5, and in light of recent trends, I'm damn ready to call this one over baring scandal/maccaca moment. With that in mind the battlegrounds seem to have shifted to IN, NV, ND, and probably still MT.

Unbelievable considering where things stood less than a month ago, but still time for Romney to rally the troops and bring back enough wavering sick-of-Obama voters in the closing weeks to save a couple of these seats.

This honestly sounds like a Democratic wet dream.  This is too good to be true!

It is, and I'm constitutionally incapable of not being worried.

The Democrats are running third in ME.  Possibly excepting MA, they will probably carry all the others.

Net GOP Senate gain of 3-7.

What are you smoking?

You've got to realise that King = Democrat effectively.

Never change, J.J. Never ever change.

The Democrats aren't even running a candidate in the super-liberal state of Vermont. What idiots!

Yes and no.  Sanders pulled the same stunt he did in 2006. He let his name be placed on the Democratic primary ballot and then after winning the primary declined the Democratic nomination.  I don't know why he doesn't go ahead admit to being a Democrat.  I guess it helps the state keep its quirky image.

You do realize that was irony, don't you?

Yes. He's pointing out that the situations aren't, in fact, identical.

Reading the 3012 boards dulls one's sense of irony.

Seriously. How many times can we read about the Obamachine 3000 pulling ahead of the Reagantronix QLZ in the race for Mars Mutant Colony's 48 electoral votes? Sheesh!

hahaha you're right. 2012 boards are pretty disgusting.

I needed that. Thanks.

Sigged.