Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on September 27, 2012, 06:19:17 AM



Title: MO-Chilenski Strategies/Missouri Scout: Romney up 6
Post by: Tender Branson on September 27, 2012, 06:19:17 AM
50-44 Romney

Respondents: 817 registered voters living in Missouri, with working telephones, who are
likely to vote in 2ovember 2012. The margin of error is +/-3.4%, IVR Study (9//20//2012).

http://moscout.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/MOScout-Poll-9.20.pdf


Title: MO: Chilenski Strategies: Romney with Lead in Missouri
Post by: ElectionAtlas on September 27, 2012, 06:29:55 AM
New Poll: Missouri President by Chilenski Strategies on 2012-09-26 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2920120920203)

Summary: D: 44%, R: 50%, I: 0%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://moscout.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/MOScout-Poll-9.20.pdf)



Title: Re: MO-Chilenski Strategies/Missouri Scout: Romney up 6
Post by: ajb on September 27, 2012, 08:58:07 AM
I'm not really invested in who wins Missouri. I don't think Obama is all that likely to win it, really, unless he's doing so well that MO doesn't matter.

But it's worth noting that this is, according to its methodology notes:
a) an IVR poll, which therefore doesn't call cell phones, and which seems not to make any adjustment for the voters it might miss, and
b) a poll which weights for party ID, but not for race.



Title: Re: MO-Chilenski Strategies/Missouri Scout: Romney up 6
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on September 27, 2012, 09:41:25 AM
This same poll had TODD AKIN winning, so I don't place much faith in it.


Title: Re: MO-Chilenski Strategies/Missouri Scout: Romney up 6
Post by: ajb on September 27, 2012, 09:55:22 AM
This same poll had TODD AKIN winning, so I don't place much faith in it.
Lots of polls have shown Akin ahead, or within striking distance. That's, sadly, not unexpected.


Title: Re: MO-Chilenski Strategies/Missouri Scout: Romney up 6
Post by: timothyinMD on September 27, 2012, 11:08:03 AM
The sample is 58-42 in favor of women.   2008 turn out was 54-46..

Probably Mitt by 8-9 and Akin by 2-3 then


Title: Re: MO-Chilenski Strategies/Missouri Scout: Romney up 6
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 27, 2012, 02:16:04 PM
The sample is 58-42 in favor of women.   2008 turn out was 54-46..

Probably Mitt by 8-9 and Akin by 2-3 then

If you're attacking the fact that there're too many women, the partisan sample may be GOP-friendly :) Am I right?


Title: Re: MO-Chilenski Strategies/Missouri Scout: Romney up 6
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on September 27, 2012, 02:27:28 PM
Nope.


Title: Re: MO-Chilenski Strategies/Missouri Scout: Romney up 6
Post by: mondale84 on September 27, 2012, 02:57:20 PM
LOL...no