Title: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: pa2011 on September 30, 2012, 06:24:43 PM
No link yet. PPP's previous Ohio poll had it Obama 50 Romney 45, so essentially stable.
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 30, 2012, 07:33:12 PM
In before republicans say these are 'good news' for Romney.
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: NVGonzalez on September 30, 2012, 07:50:57 PM
It gives a glimmer of hope for Romney, I guess.
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: LiberalJunkie on September 30, 2012, 07:57:19 PM
And this is before the debates where Romney will fail in horribly....poor mittens...
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: Devils30 on September 30, 2012, 07:59:26 PM
Obama isnt winning it by 10, this is more realistic.
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: Vosem on September 30, 2012, 08:00:32 PM
Pretty bad news for Romney. I suppose someone who feels like spinning can point out the one-point improvement and the fact that some recent polls have had particularly outlandish, near double-digit margins (though those were always obvious outliers), and PPP having a Democratic tilt. These particular numbers strike me as altogether correct, I'm afraid.
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: The Mikado on September 30, 2012, 08:01:00 PM
Bad days for Romney when a poll that shows him down 4 in a must win state is good news.
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: Torie on September 30, 2012, 08:02:13 PM
I wonder how PPP waives its wand to correct into a true random sample. I want a list!
Anyway, this is like a lifeboat baby. Now some killjoy will start chatting about margin of error. Stop it!
Anyway, this is like a lifeboat baby. Now some killjoy will start chatting about margin of error. Stop it!
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: Torie on September 30, 2012, 08:06:01 PM
Bad days for Romney when a poll that shows him down 4 in a must win state is good news.
Putting aside the issue of whether or not the poll is some evil Dem plot to make Mittens look more viable than he is at the moment (sort of like a counterspy, counterspy spy on the counterspy in an overly complex spy novel), it's the trend baby. But a 4 point lead means Ohio is trending Dem hardly at all, maybe just a tad to dead even PVI. That's lifeboat country baby. That's like what it wouuld be to the Japanese military regime if the USA dropped its entire inventory of two atom bombs on Japan, and both failed to ignite.
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: Mister Twister on September 30, 2012, 08:10:51 PM
Bad days for Romney when a poll that shows him down 4 in a must win state is good news.
Putting aside the issue of whether or not the poll is some evil Dem plot to make Mittens look more viable than he is at the moment (sort of like a counterspy, counterspy spy on the counterspy in an overly complex spy novel), it's the trend baby. But a 4 point lead means Ohio is trending Dem hardly at all, maybe just a tad to dead even PVI. That's lifeboat country baby. That's like what it wouuld be to the Japanese military regime if the USA dropped its entire inventory of two atom bombs on Japan, and both failed to ignite.
Are you drunk? This post is a load of nonsensical drivel.
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on September 30, 2012, 08:16:49 PM
Obama not at 50%? Safe R.
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: RI on September 30, 2012, 08:17:58 PM
For those who like to play the party id game, the party id on this poll is three points more Republican than 2008.
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: Torie on September 30, 2012, 08:19:27 PM
Bad days for Romney when a poll that shows him down 4 in a must win state is good news.
Putting aside the issue of whether or not the poll is some evil Dem plot to make Mittens look more viable than he is at the moment (sort of like a counterspy, counterspy spy on the counterspy in an overly complex spy novel), it's the trend baby. But a 4 point lead means Ohio is trending Dem hardly at all, maybe just a tad to dead even PVI. That's lifeboat country baby. That's like what it wouuld be to the Japanese military regime if the USA dropped its entire inventory of two atom bombs on Japan, and both failed to ignite.
Are you drunk? This post is a load of nonsensical drivel.
Do you always pull your punches this way? :P Moving right along, do we understand what the word "trend" means? Just asking.
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: Mister Twister on September 30, 2012, 08:26:33 PM
Bad days for Romney when a poll that shows him down 4 in a must win state is good news.
Putting aside the issue of whether or not the poll is some evil Dem plot to make Mittens look more viable than he is at the moment (sort of like a counterspy, counterspy spy on the counterspy in an overly complex spy novel), it's the trend baby. But a 4 point lead means Ohio is trending Dem hardly at all, maybe just a tad to dead even PVI. That's lifeboat country baby. That's like what it wouuld be to the Japanese military regime if the USA dropped its entire inventory of two atom bombs on Japan, and both failed to ignite.
Are you drunk? This post is a load of nonsensical drivel.
Do you always pull your punches this way? :P Moving right along, do we understand what the word "trend" means? Just asking.
Well, the last PPP poll in OH from 3 weeks ago had Obama up by 5. This one has him up by 4. I wouldn't call that a trend so much as statistical noise but we are all entitled to our own views about the current state of the race, I suppose.
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas on September 30, 2012, 09:20:02 PM
For those who like to play the party id game, the party id on this poll is three points more Republican than 2008.
That seems about right. Enthusiasm is not at 2008 levels and never will be. Obama just isn't going to be able to get the unlikely voters out again to the same extent.
Obama's definitely leading in Ohio at this point, so this poll seems reasonable enough.
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 30, 2012, 09:35:49 PM
From Tom Jensen (PPP):
So Obama's job rating with Ohio undecideds is 13/65%. You can bet, at that rate, at least 65% of undecideds would break to Romney (if you buy the PPP internals of couse).
Also, if the PPP numbers were reweighted to match 2008 CNN Ohio exit polling on partisan identification, Obama would be ahead 49-43%. http://partisanid.blogspot.com/2012/09/ppp-shows-tightening-in-ohio-race-obama.html (http://partisanid.blogspot.com/2012/09/ppp-shows-tightening-in-ohio-race-obama.html)
It is not normal for a campaign to cheer being four points behind in a battleground state, but after the week of awful Ohio polls Romney just had, I'm sure they're happy with this one.
Quote
It's a mistake to think based on recent polling in Ohio that the race there is over. Obama is not popular in the state, with 48% of voters approving of him to 49% who disapprove. Among voters who remain undecided there just 13% think he's doing a good job to 65% who give him poor marks.
So Obama's job rating with Ohio undecideds is 13/65%. You can bet, at that rate, at least 65% of undecideds would break to Romney (if you buy the PPP internals of couse).
Also, if the PPP numbers were reweighted to match 2008 CNN Ohio exit polling on partisan identification, Obama would be ahead 49-43%. http://partisanid.blogspot.com/2012/09/ppp-shows-tightening-in-ohio-race-obama.html (http://partisanid.blogspot.com/2012/09/ppp-shows-tightening-in-ohio-race-obama.html)
It is not normal for a campaign to cheer being four points behind in a battleground state, but after the week of awful Ohio polls Romney just had, I'm sure they're happy with this one.
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: pa2011 on September 30, 2012, 09:41:22 PM
Not sure why everyone assumes that there is going to be this big drop off in Democratic participation while GOP enthusiasm remains high. Frankly, based on what I see in my daily travels, it seems to me the biggest risk of poor turnout is among marginal Republican white, both blue-collar and middle manager type, middle-aged men. They are the type of voters who overwhelmingly supported Bush in 00 and '04 and likely McCain, because they like a muscular foreign policy, etc.
Anyway, seems this time many are increasingly disallusioned with Romney and hearing them say things like, they don't like either candidate and may not vote. Just something to consider, based only on my personal conservations.
Anyway, seems this time many are increasingly disallusioned with Romney and hearing them say things like, they don't like either candidate and may not vote. Just something to consider, based only on my personal conservations.
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 30, 2012, 09:44:45 PM
Its been at the core of their electoral calculations for the last 2 years - they need Dem participation down and hope the 2010 anger stays in place...
FTR, I never expected Obama to win OH by 8+ this poll is much closer to the result I expect.
FTR, I never expected Obama to win OH by 8+ this poll is much closer to the result I expect.
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 30, 2012, 09:47:09 PM
Work to be done.
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: Tender Branson on October 01, 2012, 12:05:05 AM
A) Still 2008-like.
B) Another good poll for Obama in the mix of other good polls.
C) I'd start to worry if there are 3 polls in a row that show Romney in a tie.
B) Another good poll for Obama in the mix of other good polls.
C) I'd start to worry if there are 3 polls in a row that show Romney in a tie.
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: opebo on October 01, 2012, 05:06:31 AM
Putting aside the issue of whether or not the poll is some evil Dem plot to make Mittens look more viable than he is at the moment (sort of like a counterspy, counterspy spy on the counterspy in an overly complex spy novel), it's the trend baby. But a 4 point lead means Ohio is trending Dem hardly at all, maybe just a tad to dead even PVI. That's lifeboat country baby.
This trend is caused entirely by the racist videa, Torie, and will end in Romney taking Ohio by election day. Your party can win on racism - it is the proven strategy for the GOP.
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 01, 2012, 05:08:09 AM
I'm happy to welcome the return of pessimistic opebo...
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: opebo on October 01, 2012, 05:09:33 AM
I'm happy to welcome the return of pessimistic opebo...
I understand how little it takes to re-ignite the latent fires of hatred, Polnut. I'm from Missouri after all.
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 01, 2012, 05:13:51 AM
I'm happy to welcome the return of pessimistic opebo...
I understand how little it takes to re-ignite the latent fires of hatred, Polnut. I'm from Missouri after all.
Don't get me wrong, I don't disagree with the premise, I just disagree with your conclusion.
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: opebo on October 01, 2012, 05:21:48 AM
I'm happy to welcome the return of pessimistic opebo...
I understand how little it takes to re-ignite the latent fires of hatred, Polnut. I'm from Missouri after all.
Don't get me wrong, I don't disagree with the premise, I just disagree with your conclusion.
Well, don't get ME wrong either, I admit even in a high-level outburst of racist frenzy, there is still a possible route to victory for Obama - it depends either on either Iowans or Wisconsans being less racist than Ohioans, which I think they are, or on Virginia being more demographically changed than I for one perceive it to yet be:
(
(
(
Obviously this is like threading the needle, because Colorado is also incredibly close.. just not much effectd by anti-black racism.
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: Torie on October 01, 2012, 08:34:21 AM
Putting aside the issue of whether or not the poll is some evil Dem plot to make Mittens look more viable than he is at the moment (sort of like a counterspy, counterspy spy on the counterspy in an overly complex spy novel), it's the trend baby. But a 4 point lead means Ohio is trending Dem hardly at all, maybe just a tad to dead even PVI. That's lifeboat country baby.
This trend is caused entirely by the racist videa, Torie, and will end in Romney taking Ohio by election day. Your party can win on racism - it is the proven strategy for the GOP.
Where's the video to which you refer? You aren't indulging in hyperbole are you opebo?
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: Brittain33 on October 01, 2012, 08:45:34 AM
Bad days for Romney when a poll that shows him down 4 in a must win state is good news.
Putting aside the issue of whether or not the poll is some evil Dem plot to make Mittens look more viable than he is at the moment (sort of like a counterspy, counterspy spy on the counterspy in an overly complex spy novel), it's the trend baby. But a 4 point lead means Ohio is trending Dem hardly at all, maybe just a tad to dead even PVI. That's lifeboat country baby. That's like what it wouuld be to the Japanese military regime if the USA dropped its entire inventory of two atom bombs on Japan, and both failed to ignite.
Torie, I'm embarrassed to admit I don't know which side this paragraph argues.
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: DrScholl on October 01, 2012, 08:52:12 AM
Romney is stuck at 45% or lower in every poll. He was at 45% in the last poll, that does not constitute a trend. Again, look at the numbers, Romney hasn't surged at all, he would have surge to create a trend. He's losing Ohio at this point, there is no arguing it.
Averaging this out with other polls, Obama is probably up about 5-6 points.
Averaging this out with other polls, Obama is probably up about 5-6 points.
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: Torie on October 01, 2012, 08:54:30 AM
Bad days for Romney when a poll that shows him down 4 in a must win state is good news.
Putting aside the issue of whether or not the poll is some evil Dem plot to make Mittens look more viable than he is at the moment (sort of like a counterspy, counterspy spy on the counterspy in an overly complex spy novel), it's the trend baby. But a 4 point lead means Ohio is trending Dem hardly at all, maybe just a tad to dead even PVI. That's lifeboat country baby. That's like what it wouuld be to the Japanese military regime if the USA dropped its entire inventory of two atom bombs on Japan, and both failed to ignite.
Torie, I'm embarrassed to admit I don't know which side this paragraph argues.
Ohio appeared to be managing to make it possible for Obama to win the election while losing the popular vote by 1% or something. This poll gets Ohio back to about an even PVI; not quite back to a 1% Pub PVI, but in the zone. Hope that helps.
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: opebo on October 01, 2012, 11:29:23 AM
Where's the video to which you refer? You aren't indulging in hyperbole are you opebo?
Have you been hiding in some luxurious hole in the ground, Torie? It is the video of the campaign (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpAOwJvTOio), and the turning point which is going to get your boy elected.
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: Torie on October 01, 2012, 11:52:22 AM
Where's the video to which you refer? You aren't indulging in hyperbole are you opebo?
Have you been hiding in some luxurious hole in the ground, Torie? It is the video of the campaign (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpAOwJvTOio), and the turning point which is going to get your boy elected.
That looks like a news clip. I don't think so. Heck, if the Rev Wright did not sink Obama last time, why on earth would some demonstrative black woman who gets off on "free" phones do the trick now?
I have my priorities opebo. Getting overly diverted by this lackluster campaign, with two cowards running against each other, is not one of the my chosen diversions at present.
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian. on October 01, 2012, 07:37:18 PM
Why, exactly, are people running around like chickens with their heads cut off about this? This is noise.
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: LastVoter on October 01, 2012, 07:40:44 PM
Why, exactly, are people running around like chickens with their heads cut off about this? This is noise.
Anybody notice how the only person honking in this white suburb was a garbage truck driver?
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: opebo on October 02, 2012, 05:14:57 AM
Why, exactly, are people running around like chickens with their heads cut off about this? This is noise.
I admit it, I do! When I go back to the USA I feel uneasy and fearful the whole time. I suppose it is irrational, but I don't like the USA and I assuming the worst about it and its citizens comes naturally to me.
Title: Re: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45
Post by: The Mikado on October 02, 2012, 11:41:53 AM
Putting aside the issue of whether or not the poll is some evil Dem plot to make Mittens look more viable than he is at the moment (sort of like a counterspy, counterspy spy on the counterspy in an overly complex spy novel), it's the trend baby. But a 4 point lead means Ohio is trending Dem hardly at all, maybe just a tad to dead even PVI. That's lifeboat country baby.
This trend is caused entirely by the racist videa, Torie, and will end in Romney taking Ohio by election day. Your party can win on racism - it is the proven strategy for the GOP.
Where's the video to which you refer? You aren't indulging in hyperbole are you opebo?
Torie: this. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpAOwJvTOio