Talk Elections

General Politics => U.S. General Discussion => Topic started by: they don't love you like i love you on October 01, 2012, 11:37:51 AM



Title: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on October 01, 2012, 11:37:51 AM
Yes. Not only is there no unified Catholic voting bloc, there never really has been one.


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: Torie on October 01, 2012, 11:43:41 AM
Yes. Not only is there no unified Catholic voting bloc, there never really has been one.

72% of Catholics (then mostly white), voted for JFK. Today however, I agree with your point. White Catholics vote like white Mainline Protestants pretty much. The clearer psephological divide these days is between the religious and irreligious.


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: All Along The Watchtower on October 01, 2012, 08:46:02 PM
The clearer psephological divide these days is between the religious and irreligious.

Of course, the white "evangelical" Protestant population being considerably more Republican than either white mainline Protestants or white Catholics (both of whom  lean Republican, but not to the extent that the irreligious are Democratic) kinda skews the distribution, no?


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 02, 2012, 01:29:26 AM
There definitely used to be a (fairly) unified Catholic voting bloc, as Torie points out. But that was before the Hispanic population exploded.


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 02, 2012, 07:12:15 AM
The implications are silly, but the term can be used as a useful shorthand in certain places.


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: afleitch on October 02, 2012, 07:46:22 AM
It depends really. Catholics don't vote a certain way because they are Catholic. If that was the case then the pattern would be international. Catholics in Bavaria and Catholics in Scotland have very different voting behaviour. If Catholics are an 'entrist' minority; i.e they have entered a primarily non culturally Catholic nation then they may coalesce around the party that doesn't, for want of a better term, treat them like sh-t. That association can decrease in time as they become a part of accepted society.


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: Mechaman on October 02, 2012, 09:00:10 AM
Yes. Not only is there no unified Catholic voting bloc, there never really has been one.

Perhaps if you mean like 90% Catholic, you got a point.

However, if you mean to say that Catholics as a whole have never leaned significantly towards one party you are wrong.  Pre-McKinley Catholics were pretty darned Democratic (even the German Catholics).  This was due to the perception by many Catholics that the Republican Party was full of "Know Nothings", or nativists.  Unfortunate implications, such as "Rebellion, Rum, and Romanism" by extreme GOP elements no doubt didn't help the Republican cause to dispel such talk that they hated immigrants and non-protestants.  I'd probably say Catholics back then were probably about 65% Democratic, which isn't like diehard but is still pretty strongly Democratic.
Post McKinley you have a point, as the rhetoric of Bryan Democrats alienated a good deal of the German Catholic population.  Italians and other Catholic minorities in urban areas tended to lean towards Social Democratic and other third party politics, though there were still somewhat of a Democratic bias amongst them.  The structure of the spoils systems put into place in urban machines, which tended to overwhelmingly favor the Irish at the chagrin of other machine voting groups, also had a bit to do with the rise of a number of minority Republican politicians in states like New York who rallied to the GOP mostly in opposition against the Democratic political machines.

I do agree, given the amount of diversity in the Catholic church the phrase "Catholic vote" doesn't make much sense.  However, does it annoy me?  No not really, but then again I'm not you.


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 02, 2012, 11:32:01 AM
Catholics in Bavaria and Catholics in Scotland have very different voting behaviour.

I like that this is a massive understatement even though the word 'very' was used.


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: Yelnoc on October 02, 2012, 11:45:05 AM
Yes. Not only is there no unified Catholic voting bloc, there never really has been one.

Why do you hate Catholics?


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: Grumpier Than Uncle Joe on October 02, 2012, 11:48:22 AM
There definitely used to be a (fairly) unified Catholic voting bloc, as Torie points out. But that was before the Hispanic population exploded.

And these catholic browns that you mention, how many show up at the polls?  The whites will.


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on October 02, 2012, 11:58:41 AM
Yes. Not only is there no unified Catholic voting bloc, there never really has been one.

Why do you hate Catholics?

Saying there is no unified Catholic voting bloc = hating Catholics is quite a stretch of an assumption to make.


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: 後援会 on October 02, 2012, 12:03:40 PM
At the very least, we can agree that Hispanic American Catholics, White American Catholics, Northern Irish Catholics, Bavarian Catholics, and Japanese Catholics all have very very different voting patterns.


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on October 02, 2012, 03:23:28 PM
Yes. Not only is there no unified Catholic voting bloc, there never really has been one.

72% of Catholics (then mostly white), voted for JFK. Today however, I agree with your point. White Catholics vote like white Mainline Protestants pretty much. The clearer psephological divide these days is between the religious and irreligious.
Wasn't it more like 83% of Catholic who voted for JFK?  My guess as to how Obama won the Catholic vote last time is because of Latinos and Irish Catholics, and that will likely hold, even with the birth control mandate.


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on October 02, 2012, 10:45:28 PM
JFK is a special case for obvious reasons but even then there's not a total Catholic bloc. For examples:

()

The darkest blue counties near the center of that map that clearly stand out are also the most heavily Catholic non-Hispanic counties in Texas...the Hispanic ones of course being the darkest red. Polar opposites.

()

Staten Island? Long Island?

()

Wisconsin has basically always been Lutherans (Scandinavians) in the west, Catholics (Germans) in the east. You can see how they broke there. Granted this is probably why JFK won Brown County (Green Bay) and the surrounding areas, but he still only won Brown by less than a point.

()

There are some pretty obvious areas evidencing a Catholic swing toward JFK, like those counties in the middle around Stearns and Scott. But he still lost almost all of mostly German and more Catholic than the state southern Minnesota, (oddly enough Jackson is the only county he won, which today is one of the LEAST Catholic ones in Minnesota) and got crushed in Redwood and Brown counties. Brown actually voted for Al Smith.

BTW I was originally going to say in the OP "except for 1928" but then remembered even that's not universal, Smith no doubt still got clobbered in the German areas in central Texas for instance. Perhaps with some excepts that still applies well, but if you have to go back to then or pre-McKinely for examples of Catholic bloc voting, well then you can probably see the lack of relevance today.


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: Mechaman on October 02, 2012, 11:28:51 PM
WHat I'm wondering is why you spent a few hours researching this to make a point that really doesn't need to be made.  I mean really, are you losing sleep over this BRTD?


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on October 02, 2012, 11:30:20 PM
WHat I'm wondering is why you spent a few hours researching this to make a point that really doesn't need to be made.  I mean really, are you losing sleep over this BRTD?

A few hours? Try more like 5-10 minutes. The link to those maps is right at the top of the page you're looking at right now you know.

(If you're assuming that because I didn't respond until kind of late, it was because I was at work earlier.)


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: Mechaman on October 02, 2012, 11:34:40 PM
WHat I'm wondering is why you spent a few hours researching this to make a point that really doesn't need to be made.  I mean really, are you losing sleep over this BRTD?

A few hours? Try more like 5-10 minutes. The link to those maps is right at the top of the page you're looking at right now you know.

(If you're assuming that because I didn't respond until kind of late, it was because I was at work earlier.)

Well, I mean you had to know something about Texas demographics to be able to deduce that the central blue counties are heavily non-hispanic Catholic.  Which obviously takes more than looking at the maps in the link at the top fo the page.

Also given how many times you've brought this up (hell, I think you even made another thread over this very issue), I thought I might as well inquire about how much sleep you're getting.

Just saying.


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on October 02, 2012, 11:51:58 PM
WHat I'm wondering is why you spent a few hours researching this to make a point that really doesn't need to be made.  I mean really, are you losing sleep over this BRTD?

A few hours? Try more like 5-10 minutes. The link to those maps is right at the top of the page you're looking at right now you know.

(If you're assuming that because I didn't respond until kind of late, it was because I was at work earlier.)

Well, I mean you had to know something about Texas demographics to be able to deduce that the central blue counties are heavily non-hispanic Catholic.  Which obviously takes more than looking at the maps in the link at the top fo the page.

That's something that anyone with an advanced knowledge in psephology knows, those counties are notoriously Republican and stick out like a sore thumb on the maps that FDR ran in, due to being anti-Confederate enclaves settled by Germans who are far more Catholic than the rest of non-Hispanic Texas. Even Wikipedia has a bit on it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Texan

Also given how many times you've brought this up (hell, I think you even made another thread over this very issue), I thought I might as well inquire about how much sleep you're getting.

Just saying.

Right now, not much. Though that has far more to do with 12 hour workdays than analysis of past elections.


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on October 03, 2012, 12:01:18 AM
Another fun bit of trivia about that central Texas area is that LBJ was actually from there, and won all but one of the counties in the area. That might not sound too impressive considering how much of a landslide he won by nationally, but consider that he won his home county of Gillespie, which is the most Republican county even for that region, and has not only literally never been won by a Democrat in any other Presidential election but didn't even give FDR over 10% in either election in the 40s, and in fact has not even any other Democrat over 30%. The strongest showing ever by a Democratic ticket that didn't have LBJ on it was Carter in '76 who got 25.79%.

You know I kind of just assumed everyone here knew about that central Texas region considering how much we love electoral geography oddities. And that itself I'll admit, is very very odd.


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on October 03, 2012, 07:35:38 AM
JFK is a special case for obvious reasons but even then there's not a total Catholic bloc. For examples:

()

The darkest blue counties near the center of that map that clearly stand out are also the most heavily Catholic non-Hispanic counties in Texas...the Hispanic ones of course being the darkest red. Polar opposites.

()

Staten Island? Long Island?

()

Wisconsin has basically always been Lutherans (Scandinavians) in the west, Catholics (Germans) in the east. You can see how they broke there. Granted this is probably why JFK won Brown County (Green Bay) and the surrounding areas, but he still only won Brown by less than a point.

()

There are some pretty obvious areas evidencing a Catholic swing toward JFK, like those counties in the middle around Stearns and Scott. But he still lost almost all of mostly German and more Catholic than the state southern Minnesota, (oddly enough Jackson is the only county he won, which today is one of the LEAST Catholic ones in Minnesota) and got crushed in Redwood and Brown counties. Brown actually voted for Al Smith.

BTW I was originally going to say in the OP "except for 1928" but then remembered even that's not universal, Smith no doubt still got clobbered in the German areas in central Texas for instance. Perhaps with some excepts that still applies well, but if you have to go back to then or pre-McKinely for examples of Catholic bloc voting, well then you can probably see the lack of relevance today.
Nixon carried Wisconsin in 1960.  And as I understand it, German Protestants trended to vote Republican and German Catholics tended to vote more Democratic.


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: minionofmidas on October 03, 2012, 08:32:12 AM
I don't think there were Catholics among the stereotypical German Texans (ie the guys who moved straight from infertile central German hill country to settle in freshly Comancheless infertile central Texan hill country, sometimes whole villages at a time.)
Wisconsin, otoh... loads of German Catholics. And yeah, they've always been Republicans. (Green Bay is notorious for Belgians, of course.)


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: Yelnoc on October 03, 2012, 08:39:18 AM
Yes. Not only is there no unified Catholic voting bloc, there never really has been one.

Why do you hate Catholics?

Saying there is no unified Catholic voting bloc = hating Catholics is quite a stretch of an assumption to make.

Come on now, we know you hate Catholics.


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on October 03, 2012, 08:47:36 AM
Yes. Not only is there no unified Catholic voting bloc, there never really has been one.

Why do you hate Catholics?

Saying there is no unified Catholic voting bloc = hating Catholics is quite a stretch of an assumption to make.

Come on now, we know you hate Catholics.

Then it's quite odd that I voted for one for President (and another ticket with one for VP)


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: Mechaman on October 03, 2012, 08:57:56 AM
Yes. Not only is there no unified Catholic voting bloc, there never really has been one.

Why do you hate Catholics?

Saying there is no unified Catholic voting bloc = hating Catholics is quite a stretch of an assumption to make.

Come on now, we know you hate Catholics.

As undeniable as that fact is, I don't think this thread is good enough evidence.  Perhaps the right question would be, at least for this one, "why do you OBSESS about Catholics?"

Is there some childhood story about a priest and a confession booth that BRTD hasn't told us?


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 03, 2012, 09:17:44 AM
Yes. Not only is there no unified Catholic voting bloc, there never really has been one.

72% of Catholics (then mostly white), voted for JFK.

Just yesterday, I was wondering what the numbers were during that race. Thanks!


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: minionofmidas on October 03, 2012, 09:18:46 AM
He is risen!


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on October 03, 2012, 03:15:35 PM
Yes. Not only is there no unified Catholic voting bloc, there never really has been one.

72% of Catholics (then mostly white), voted for JFK.

Just yesterday, I was wondering what the numbers were during that race. Thanks!
I actually think it was 83% of Catholics who voted for JFK.


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 03, 2012, 07:22:37 PM
I suspect that the exact number is impossible to ascertain and that any figures bandied around will come from surveys. There are serious, serious, serious problems with surveys into voting patterns in general, and additional problems with the sort of social surveys done in the 1950s and 1960s...


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: Badger on October 03, 2012, 08:07:29 PM
It doesn't "annoy" me per se. Talking heads like to say that "white Catholics" are an important swing vote bloc, but I think that's too broad as well.


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on October 03, 2012, 10:01:07 PM
Looking at the 1960 map, there's no way I can see 83% of Catholics for JFK. Even 72% is a bit of a stretch, since in a lot of counties that would mean Nixon got a comparable percentage of non-Catholics, not entirely unfeasible, but the only way this could happen if it lots of mostly white Protestant counties didn't swing much, while white Protestants in counties that also had a large Catholic population swung heavily against JFK.

Either way if either figure is true JFK's Catholicism obviously helped a lot more than it hurt, which I do believe even if skeptical of those figures.


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on October 05, 2012, 11:59:09 PM
Something realized today is that this would be a good county to look at: Dubuque, Iowa. It's commonly known as having one of the largest white Catholic populations in the country, at about 80%. It voted:

Kennedy 63.30%
Nixon 36.64%

So for 83%, just about all non-Catholics in the county would've had to have voted for Nixon. For 72%, that would be about 70% for Nixon, maybe not entirely unfeasible, but consider that even in Sioux County of all places Kennedy broke 20% (way better than any modern Democrat can expect). Of course the 72% figure is possible if you consider that in places like South Texas the numbers for Kennedy were much higher...but that just kind of underscores the point that there was no Catholic voting bloc even in 1960.

In the end though Al is definitely right, if I had to estimate based on the 1960 map I'd say mid to high 60s though.


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: memphis on October 06, 2012, 12:05:02 AM
Something realized today is that this would be a good county to look at: Dubuque, Iowa. It's commonly known as having one of the largest white Catholic populations in the country, at about 80%. It voted:

Kennedy 63.30%
Nixon 36.64%

So for 83%, just about all non-Catholics in the county would've had to have voted for Nixon. For 72%, that would be about 70% for Nixon, maybe not entirely unfeasible, but consider that even in Sioux County of all places Kennedy broke 20% (way better than any modern Democrat can expect). Of course the 72% figure is possible if you consider that in places like South Texas the numbers for Kennedy were much higher...but that just kind of underscores the point that there was no Catholic voting bloc even in 1960.

In the end though Al is definitely right, if I had to estimate based on the 1960 map I'd say mid to high 60s though.
You would have to demonstrate that the Catholic population in Dubuque was representative of the country as a whole. Otherwise, what you've done is the equivalent of looking at Vermont's results in the 2008 election, and determining that whites voted overwhelmingly for Obama because Vermont is one of the whitest states in the country.


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on October 06, 2012, 12:08:10 AM
Something realized today is that this would be a good county to look at: Dubuque, Iowa. It's commonly known as having one of the largest white Catholic populations in the country, at about 80%. It voted:

Kennedy 63.30%
Nixon 36.64%

So for 83%, just about all non-Catholics in the county would've had to have voted for Nixon. For 72%, that would be about 70% for Nixon, maybe not entirely unfeasible, but consider that even in Sioux County of all places Kennedy broke 20% (way better than any modern Democrat can expect). Of course the 72% figure is possible if you consider that in places like South Texas the numbers for Kennedy were much higher...but that just kind of underscores the point that there was no Catholic voting bloc even in 1960.

In the end though Al is definitely right, if I had to estimate based on the 1960 map I'd say mid to high 60s though.
You would have to demonstrate that the Catholic population in Dubuque was representative of the country as a whole. Otherwise, what you've done is the equivalent of looking at Vermont's results in the 2008 election, and determining that whites voted overwhelmingly for Obama because Vermont is one of the whitest states in the country.

That's my point though, there wasn't a true voting bloc even in 1960.

Speaking of all this it's a bit funny that for someone who "hates Catholic" I myself would've obviously voted for Kennedy. In fact I would've voted for every pre-Paul Ryan major party ticket with a Catholic on it (though in the case of Al Smith this was mostly just out of opposing Prohibition, as his post-governorship life showed he was a pretty awful guy.)


Title: Re: Does hearing about the "Catholic vote" annoy you?
Post by: DC Al Fine on October 11, 2012, 03:52:53 PM
Catholic vote can be roughly divided into 3 groups:

1) Hispanics - Solid Democrats
2) White, attend mass less than weekly - Lean democrat
3) White, attend mass weekly or more - Republican