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Title: GriffGraph: Balance of Power Comparisons (Emergency TPP Update) Post by: Adam Griffin on October 02, 2012, 01:52:36 AM Due to the massive shifts over the past week, I am releasing the fourth set of Balance of Power rankings early to give everyone an idea of the status of each region. I *believe* the displayed seats are correct this time, however, let me know if anything is amiss. You can view the last GriffGraph Balance of Power Comparisons here. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=159909.0)
The first set of images show plurality/majority party affiliation by region: () () The second set of images compare an aggregate of voter registration, executive, legislative and judicial control to effectively determine which parties have the most power: () () Here is how the national numbers stand up: () () Finally, an image depicting the swing in each region – based on the Balance of Power maps above: () Title: Re: GriffGraph: Balance of Power Comparisons (Emergency TPP Update) Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on October 02, 2012, 12:25:13 PM Go Labor! Again!
Title: Re: GriffGraph: Balance of Power Comparisons (Emergency TPP Update) Post by: Northeast Rep Snowball on October 02, 2012, 12:31:12 PM We have a good chance of survival against TPP, whigs are going down.
Title: Re: GriffGraph: Balance of Power Comparisons (Emergency TPP Update) Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on October 02, 2012, 12:47:14 PM We have a good chance of survival against TPP, whigs are going down. TPP is fractious. They don't have a clear, coherent ideology beyond Duke/Cinci for President. Labor must stay strong! Title: Re: GriffGraph: Balance of Power Comparisons (Emergency TPP Update) Post by: tmthforu94 on October 02, 2012, 12:51:46 PM We have a good chance of survival against TPP, whigs are going down. TPP is fractious. They don't have a clear, coherent ideology beyond Duke/Cinci for President. Labor must stay strong! Title: Re: GriffGraph: Balance of Power Comparisons (Emergency TPP Update) Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on October 02, 2012, 03:30:28 PM Also, that is a beautiful trend map. Do more of that.
Title: Re: GriffGraph: Balance of Power Comparisons (Emergency TPP Update) Post by: Northeast Rep Snowball on October 02, 2012, 05:06:32 PM The problem with the TPP (this has been said before) is that the lack of common ideology leads to candidates from the same party voting against each other is senate etc.
Title: Re: GriffGraph: Balance of Power Comparisons (Emergency TPP Update) Post by: Barnes on October 02, 2012, 05:40:35 PM Wonderful as usual, Griffin. One teeny nit-pick, though: the NE Assembly now has three Labor members, I was appointed yesterday to the seat vacated by BelgianSocialist. ;D
But really, these are fantastic! Title: Re: GriffGraph: Balance of Power Comparisons (Emergency TPP Update) Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on October 02, 2012, 05:50:12 PM The problem with the TPP (this has been said before) is that the lack of common ideology leads to candidates from the same party voting against each other is senate etc. We haven't even announced our full platform and bylaws yet! People can't judge us this early! And frankly, the ideologies are not that all dissimilar in this game. The Whigs are probably the only folks that differentiate themselves from the Liberals and Laborers. The People's Party is a bit unorthodox, yes, but that's what we need sometimes. I ask all our friends in the other parties to wait before you hate ;) Title: Re: GriffGraph: Balance of Power Comparisons (Emergency TPP Update) Post by: Adam Griffin on October 02, 2012, 06:19:13 PM Wonderful as usual, Griffin. One teeny nit-pick, though: the NE Assembly now has three Labor members, I was appointed yesterday to the seat vacated by BelgianSocialist. ;D But really, these are fantastic! Congrats! I've fixed the map; it provided Labor with a little bit of a bump in the national count (0.3-0.4 points) at the expense of 'Other'. Title: Re: GriffGraph: Balance of Power Comparisons (Emergency TPP Update) Post by: Napoleon on October 02, 2012, 07:39:09 PM What are the numbers if you weight it differently? Regions have way too much weight, should be less than 40%. Senate is usually a decent gauge of party strength so deserves to be weighted much, much higher.
Title: Re: GriffGraph: Balance of Power Comparisons (Emergency TPP Update) Post by: Adam Griffin on October 02, 2012, 09:08:16 PM What are the numbers if you weight it differently? Regions have way too much weight, should be less than 40%. Senate is usually a decent gauge of party strength so deserves to be weighted much, much higher. Liberals would be the plurality party where the weight is 40% Federal or higher. I admit this aspect of the GriffGraph does need to be tweaked and thankfully it does not impact any of the other graphics or calculations; I do not see future revisions, however, containing a formula that would hand 70%+ of the weight to the Federal slate. Here are the results with different weights: 70% Federal/30% Regional: Liberal: 39.48% Labor: 31.61% TPP: 7.67% IB: 6.60% Whig: 6.51% Other: 3.62% Ind: 2.85% 60% Federal/40% Regional: Liberal: 35.97% Labor: 30.48% TPP: 8.56% IB: 7.14% Whig: 7.02% Other: 4.83% Ind: 3.80% 50% Federal/50% Regional: Liberal: 32.46% Labor: 29.35% TPP: 9.45% IB: 7.67% Whig: 7.52% Other: 6.04% Ind: 4.75% 40% Federal/60% Regional: Liberal: 28.95% Labor: 28.28% TPP: 10.33% IB: 8.20% Whig: 8.02% Other: 7.24% Ind: 5.70% |