Talk Elections

The right-wing monolithic party created by Jacques Chirac in 2002 is currently running its first time competitive leadership election. The election is for the office of President of the party, which was vacant under the 5-year term of Nicolas Sarkozy as President of France.

Vote will happen on November 18th, and is reserved to UMP enlisted members. Still, it accounts for a potential of around 230,000 voters, and will be a test of how the right can handle a mediatic voting process as well as the center-left PS succeeded a year ago.

For the first time, voting will also choose between platforms, which may or may not result in the installation of official wings of the party. As of now, there are clubs or groups, but not official wings.

According to plans, the winner here will not automatically be the nominee for the 2017 French Presidential election, when the UMP could or could not use an open primary process, but he certainly will have an edge in that.

After a number of "small or medium" candidates failed to gather the necessary signatures of 3% of the members (ca. 8,000), we're left with only two candidates :

-François Fillon, Prime Minister of Sarkozy from 2007 to 2012, several times minister before that, largely representing the quiet, moderate kind of right. He is the favourite in each and every poll. His assets are : he is seen as the contrary of Sarkozy, who just lost. He is seen as a better potential gatherer of ideologies, more mainstream centre-right which can steal appeal to parts of the hardcore right or even far-right. Plus he just served for five years as Prime Minister with relatively good support-levels as opposed to Sarkozy's, so he's got the "statesman stature". Main drawback : can be seen as a bit soft or shallow.

-Jean-François Copé, incumbent Secretary General of the party (ie. de facto leader), has been minister and government spokesman but a while ago. He is seen as more of the energetic, dynamic and somewhat erratic kind of right, more appealing to hardcore and far right supporters. Main assets : he has had the control over the party logistics for a while now, so he basically organizes the election and knows every influent middle executives of the party. Plus he is seen as energetic, the only item in which he defeats Fillon in polls, and he's the underdog so he has nothing to lose. Drawbacks : he is seen as too much a clone of Sarkozy, which is kind of embarrassing right now (could not be the same in 2016 though...), and he continually fails to extend his support towards the centre-right and the centre.

For now, we didn't have many polls rolling in, but they've all been between 65-35 and 75-25 in favor of Fillon. We will have at least one televised debate but I don't think the date's been announced so far. Generally, the media treats Fillon as the future winner, and their favourite.

The outcome will depend on which departemental federations will have which turnout, how much the debate and the last month of media campaigning will affect voters. We could expect a narrower outcome, but few can see Copé winning in the end for now.

See this blog (http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/) for more information, made by our fellow Atlas member big bad fab.

There were around 260,000 members on June, 30th.
There may be some more now, as some former could have come back and some 2011 members hadn't paid their due yet on June, 30th.

Turnout will be a very important: low, it's good for Copé, as mainly strong right-wingers would vote; higher and it's good for Fillon, as more moderate voters enter the game.

As the campaign is quite long, we can guess many members will vote. And November, 18th won't be sunny and isn't during holidays :P

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I went to Fillon's meeting in Brittany last Saturday: no big surprise and a small place, for around 200 people... It was quite fun...
It's a moderate region but, still, Sarkozy's name was applauded a lot...

This might be the first time than I and Fab support the same candidate. ;) Not that I have a very high esteem for Fillon, but Copé is... what he is. If Hollande is to lose in 2017, I'd rather have him lose against Fillon.

Anyways, good to see there will be something else to follow shortly after the US election cycle is over.

A new poll OpinionWay shows that Fillon is preferred among right-wing voters. This poll doesn't give voting intentions, rather preferences on several issues or affirmations.

Fillon-Copé
35-15 "capable of leading UMP to victory in local elections of 2014"
32-17 "embodies the future of the right-wing"
32-16 "faithful to Sarkozy's legacy" (which is a severe blow for Copé that tries so hard to be viewed as Sarkozy's legitimate heir)
39-11 "able to unite all the right-wing voters"
29-13 "embodies the right-wing values"
24-10 "has a project for the right-wing"
37-21 "would be a good opposition leader"
Copé leads in the following :
24-26 "embodies the right-wing's renewal"
18-23 "is close to the UMP members and activists" (remember Copé is the present Secretary General of the party)
15-31 "modern"
16-37 "dynamic"

That means right-wing voters want a soft and kinda old-school leader to unite their side for the middle-term elections. This could not be the same man they will need to win in 2017 though...

We need the number among the UMP electorate (ideally among actual members, if not at least sympathizers). Otherwise I think that's pretty meaningless.

You know as well as I do how many people they'd need to call in order to build a large enough sample of UMP actual members. So it's true we have no choice but to take those figures, and they might not give us a good picture of what is really going on inside (though I guess it's a pretty accurate one nevertheless).

This election is tonight. THe first results are coming in. Once again, polls have shown that measuring UMP voters to predict a result within UMP actual members was not a good idea.

The result seems to be sharp-razor-thin, whereas every poll had Fillon at around 60-65 for Copé's 35-40. The largest federations are still to be called.

To be continued...

Fillon seems Romney-esque. I read that he's known for having "no fixed political positions" and is "inclusive" on social issues. Copé appears to be a little over the top though. Ugh.

François Fillon is said to be a representant of 'Social Gaullism', isn't he? I'm not sure of what 'Social Gaullism' means or if that definition has validity nowadays. In any case, I prefer to see elected those who represent the 'reasonable right', with somewhat 'socially inclusive' views.

Fillon was a séguiniste in the RPR in the 90s and 'social Gaullism' represented a brand of eurosceptic Gaullism with a "fibre sociale" (some kind of 'social' concern), and also stood in opposition to Chirac's leadership. Fillon voted against Maastricht in 1992 and in 1989 he had been one of the "douze salopards"/"rénovateurs" along with other young UDF and RPR mavericks/rebels (Noir, Millon, Carignon, Bayrou, Baudis, de Villiers etc) who opposed Chirac/VGE's leadership.

Fillon ran for the RPR presidency in 1999 on a "social Gaullist"/ex-rénovateur type of platform and won 24.6% in the first round. He basically abandoned social Gaullism and patched up his relations with Chirac in 2002, before getting ejected from cabinet in 2005 and becoming a prominent Sarkozyst and visceral opponent of Villepin/Chirac (and Raffarin too, which explains why the centrist Raffarin is such a big fan of Jeff Cope).

Things seem very tight, Jeff Cope might have a 2000-3000 vote lead with a few big feds (Paris, Alpes-Maritimes) still counting/incomplete. Things are not looking very good for Fillon though... what a pathetic and horrible party.

From what I've read, on the "motions" vote, "La Droite forte", some cheap marketing ploy/populist bullsh**t (whose main shtick is heaping praise on Sarko) led by two young Sarkozyst tools (one of whom, Guillaume Peltier, is a slimy ambitious reactionary tool who started out in the FNJ and then in the MPF...) is waaay ahead. Couldn't they at least vote for some motions which make some ideological sense and have some kind of coherent (or semi-coherent) platform? I mean, even the Fascist-Lites (La Droite pop) would be preferable to this cheap bullsh**t.

Given that France is screwed over no matter what (with Flanby in power...) and there's no hope whatsoever, we could at least hope for some fun Reims-like shenanigans. The two sides are already at each other's throats tonight...

edit: everybody is calling fraud. Dis gun be good.

Where can one follow the returns? Are any networks covering it/if so, is there a live stream?

Both of them said they have won now!

It will be a very long night....week

Most excellent.

This is sooooooo good. As a left-wing that is to say.

Copé called victory. Fillon called a 224 votes lead, but to be validated by the electoral internal commission. Both sides are calling electoral fraud on the other.

It's sweet. Plus, Copé being elected would be the one and only chance of Hollande to have any hope whatsoever in the future...

Royal-Aubry 2.0.

Yeah pretty much. But the right isn't used to that, so it could leave some deeper scars with them.

Oh God, this is crazy.

I still hope Fillon eeks this out. The slightly increased possibility of winning in 2017 due to facing Copé are far outweighed by the prospect of Copé actually winning, IMO.

I'm fed up with this country... :(
I'm desperately SAD tonight. To the point I haven't even cried.

As always, the inconsiderate, the bad-mannered, the cheeky, the vulgar, the stupid people will win.
BLEH.

See, I usually disagree with you but now I perfectly understand what you feel. And that's not just because Fillon is closer to my views than Copé. They indeed embody two completely different mindsets and two visions on what a modern right should be. I probably wouldn't vote for any of them, but I have infinitely more respect for people like Fillon, Juppé, Le Maire, etc. than for the rising clique of smug demagogues flourishing under Sarkozy and now Copé.

And now, I'm worried that Wauquiez, Pécresse, even Le Maire, will hurt themselves by trying to fight these bad people.
I'm very, very, very sad tonight.
I don't see any solution: being crushed between this clown Borloo and this nazi Le Pen, with a too ambitious and cheeky Copé, rallied by these cowards Raffarin or Daubresse, and these thugs Courtial, Hortefeux, Riester, Rosso-Debord, Dati, Morano, Tabarot, Karoutchi, and probably soon by these stupid Bertrand and maybe Estrosi. OMG, they are too numerous... :(

Well, it's a fight worth fighting. I can't even imagine what an UMP under Copé could be like...

For electoral prospects, don't worry too much: rejection of the socialist government should be enough to keep the UMP afloat and give it a fair chance to win, even with Copé&friends. But is it a party you would want to win?

If only Sarkozy was re-elected, right, guys?

For the moment, I don't know...
But I also know that you can't create a party from nothing. And Fillon isn't strong enough to do it, anyway.
And, of course, I can't support UDI (at least, electorally speaking: how would Borloo be able to win a presidential election, seriously ?).
I'm a bit lost at the moment... :P and even more sad after a short night :(
La droite la plus bête du monde.
(even though it can be argued that Berlusconi and the tea-partiers are stronger contenders ;))

Well, those are mondial trends.
Many left-wing parties are hapless and are totally unable to correctly explain their ideas to the voters.
Many right-wing parties are making wierd tactical choices, which are hurting them.

Copé elected by a 98 votes margin.

Let's go for 4 years of poor quality political debate...

I hereby endorse Hollande for re-election (I think.).

lol, the French right is becoming more humourous than the French left.

French politics has gone from hopeful to extremely depressing in such a short time.

Why? Copé is indeed a horrible and disgusting human being from almost all points of view, and Hollande is way better than he is; but let's not get distracted from the fact that Hollande is still an incompetent doofus who is quickly turning out to be a totally useless guy who's in way over his head and whose policies are not any different from that of Sarkozy.

I endorse a big blob of sour cream (or, alternatively, McKayla Maroney) for 2017, which is, as far as I'm concerned, way better than anything else currently on offer.

See the map on my blog

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/

Copé, I can accept him (well, I need some time, though :P and I'm pretty convinced he will be a bad candidate): it's all the bad and the ugly people around him that I HATE...

Absolutely disheartening news. Let's brace ourselves, because I'm pretty sure the political discourse in France will start to physically hurt, soon. By 2016, I'll probably be praying for Sarkozy's return.



Because some people understand that politics are about picking the lesser evil even when the lesser evil sucks. ;)

Where were all those hopes, Flanby? Already I know that is neither not serious at all nor founded, but I don't like Copé's face in the photos. Unlike Fillon, he's not capable of looking like a reliable or amicable person. Wake up, Hollande, for God's sake.

Melenchon!

He kinda resembles Jörg Haider a little.

Copé! The French Right at last has a leader to be proud of :)

Because a US Republican can sure be proud of his party right now.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/20/us-france-conservatives-idUSBRE8AJ16S20121120

:D

Sarkozy won't be back. French journalists love these kinds of hypotheticals, but that just won't happen.

(and no, that's not wishful thinking, because Copé is actually an even more despicable individual than Sarkozy)

To be fair, they have both been steadily laughable for some time now...

Fillon's camp is still claiming they have won.....

Fillon's camp claims that 3 federations were "forgotten".

If it's true, Copé is really disgusting.

The Fillonistas have somehow realized that everybody forgot about the feds overseas (Wallis, NC, Mayotte) and that with their votes, Fillon won by 26 votes. The Cocoe, which seems about as legit as the Russian election commission, has said that it did forget about them but it's too late now and Jeff is telling the Fillonistas to shut up.

lol

Talk about a clusterfark of epic proportions.

Wut.

This is like the Iowa Primary, only more important and proportionally worse.

Fillon threatens to take legal action.

It's not a political party, it's a circus.

I hope this leads to the party splitting. Maybe a return to the old UDF-RPR alliance days that I grew up with. :D

Could the courts resolve this? Or like the US, would they say "not up to us."?

This is officially brilliant.

UPDATE!

Fillon says that he doesn't want the presidency; but he wants the "truth". He wants Juppé to become leader instead while the issue is resolved and wants a collective leadership. He threatens to take this to court if there is no collective leadership

Juppé says he is ready to become leader while the issue is resolved, but only if both sides are fine.

Jeff tells people to shut up and is "daring" Fillon to take this issue to an internal commission for irregularities etc

Do the courts have jurisdiction over party primaries? Also, if it does go to an internal commission, what would their verdict most likely be?

I don't know if the courts have any jurisdiction over party primaries; this was regulated by party bylaws and organized by the local federations, so I don't really know if the courts could intervene in this. They would need to force an internal party commission to change its results or something.

Also, the Cocoe itself has basically lost all legitimacy if they did indeed forget to count over 1300 votes. The party apparatus itself is firmly controlled by Jeff and his goons, so make of that what you will. They'd love for Fillon to take this to the "commission de recours" because they could investigate fraud in Estrosian Nice; but Fillon's case is not fraud but rather the issue that they just *forgot* to count over 1300 votes!

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OH MY F**KING GOD.

I can't believe they did this for real.

Is there any hope left for Fillon?

Fillon has said he doesn't want to be president anymore; I think he realized that they're both damaged goods by now (Jeff probably moreso because he's pissed off half the party) but his goal now is to oust Jeff.

BBF; if you read this thread - un lien vers l'ensemble des résultats par fédé? Ce parti de merde n'est même pas capable produire les résultats officiels par fédération!

Yeah, I should have said "Is there any hope left to kick Copé's slimy ass?". Juppé or whoever else takes the spot would be a major improvement.

Follow Yves-Marie Cann and Nicolas Obrist on Twitter.
First they have gathered all the stuff they could find on Sunday on local medias, on local websites from local UMP organizations and from Twitter.
That's how I have made my own map (see my blog) ;)

But yesterday evening, Le Figaro has published copies of the COCOE's numbers. Almost nobody has noticed it, that's amazing (medias LOVE the bad guys like Copé and they HATE the honest men).
http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/cocoe.pdf
And there are also the numbers for "movements" inside the UMP:
http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/images/114030625-114026490-Recensement-Des-Motions-1.jpg
I have to make a map for these too, but Iim currently exhausted (and DISGUSTED by Copé and his thugs) and with too much work to do :P

Today, Cann and Obrist will publish a comparison between their own numbers and those of the COCOE. But they were right from the outset: Fillon has won.

I'm so sad and desperate, you can't imagine... :( :'(

It's far harsher to live than the defeat of Sarkozy or the series of losses in local and european elections in 2008-2011.

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Inside the UMP, there is a "commission des recours" (appeals committee), to which you can appeal if the COCOE's decisions seem wrong.
The problem is that the appeals committee is full of Copé's guys, like the COCOE :P
But the other problem is that, maybe, a court won't agree to decide on a Fillon's file if he hasn't FIRST used the internal procedure...

Oh, I understand, I perfectly know how I would have felt if Topp won the NDP leadership race instead of Mulcair.

There are no comparisons. If Topp had won, he would have won free and fair. Jeff didn't actually win, but his goons and his tools in the Cocoe frauded the results (in the same way they'd do it in Russia) and effectively disenfranchised over 1300 voters by not counting their votes. This is disgusting, even if you're a honest person who supports Cope (if such people exist); Topp vs Mulcair is only a case of a run of the mill leadership race with passion on both sides while this is a case of massive vote rigging.

Can someone tell me what the different UMP "movements" stand for? I know the Droite Populaire is the right-wing Copeist faction, but what do those others mean?

Maybe a little off topic, but do you really consider 2009 as a loss ? UMP won 12 more seats than in 2004 and PS done their worst result since 15 years.

Ah well, now that it is typed I can't help linking it to here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=165295.0

...in case some of the brilliant episodes of all of this had been missed here.

And this post could fit right here:


Apparently it is really helping to tone things down. But nothing says it would rule the things, it went really violent. And Gaino is saying right now that this new commission would only be consultative.

Also, it is said to take a decision in 10 days, 30th of November is in 8 days.

Very last news:

Juppé will meet Copé and Fillon on Sunday.

So I arrive here at the end of the '1st season' of the drama. 2nd season might begin on Sunday if people manage to keep their calm till then.

I wonder how it can evolve...

Copé is an utterly disgusting individual. I have absolutely loathed him with all my passion from the first time I heard him speak.

I would never have imagined I would get so involved in a UMP election, but now this is a moral issue. We need him out, and I hope Fillon will have the balls to do all that's necessary to reach that goal.

Nah, he's just a totally modern politician, the biggest prototype of it we ever had in France, we are not used to it here so far, he took all the bad sides of Sarkozy and pushed it the furthest he could, but he has neither the 'talent', nor the strength of Sarkozy, so it gives a quite pitiful show, and yeah, a rather annoying one. As a politician that's an annoying bad clown, as an individual that seems to be someone a quite average one. I tend to think that in the total politico-economico-mediatico circus and permanent agitation people would be less and less conscious of what they are doing/saying, like those mice in their wheels (and to think we're in France which seemed more preserved than other countries so far about those stuffs, maybe we're all taking at once...).

I'd also rather support Fillon, who seems to still have a bit of sanity at least, but it would mainly be because he's more old school than Copé. Pécresse, Wauquiez, Ciotti, and some others wouldn't be much better than Copé as politicians, but yeah, globally those who still have a bit of sanity and/or political depth would rather be with Fillon than with Copé, I'd even tend to think it would be the main split within the UMP nowadays, because you can find centrists and 'far-rightists' in both camps, and truer centrists would in the end join UDI and truer far-rightists FN/RMB.

Droite forte: a fraud based on the vague but powerful notion of 'Sarkozysm' and the 'Sarkozy generation' of the right; basically a shameless attempt by two young and ambitious grubby opportunists to further their own careers by attaching themselves to whatever the flying hell 'Sarkozysm' actually is. It also serves as a slightly less controversial version of the Droite pop, given that it has basically copied its reactionary and nativist ideology. Its main leader is Guillaume Peltier, aged 36, who was in the FN (and briefly MNR) until 2000 before joining Philippe de Villiers' MPF and quickly becoming one of the few 'talents' in the personalist and talent-less MPF. He joined the UMP in 2009, for reasons probably connected to his electoral failures for the MPF in Tours in 2007 and 2008. During the Sarko2012 campaign, he was fairly high in the campaign apparatus with the likes of Patrick Buisson. The other leader of this media-savvy fraud is Geoffroy Didier, a 36 yr old regional councillor who formerly defined himself as a "sarkozyste de gauche" but has basically transformed into a Droite pop-type reactionary.
I'm biased, but this joke represents all that is wrong with politics in general these days. It's driven entirely by image, flashy phrases/slogans and shameless opportunism (considering in 2007 that villieriste Peltier said he preferred Valls to Sarko...). It's also a good reminder that young right-wingers in France are the scum of the earth.
The motion was backed by Bernard Accoyer, Brice Hortefeux, Édouard Courtial, Pierre Charon and Jean Sarkozy (who is also a good example of why young right-wingers are HPs). Heavily Copeiste

Droite sociale: predominantly Filloniste faction led by Laurent Wauquiez. Wauquiez's big thing is the 'defense of middle-classes' and 'la lutte contre l'assistanat' (basically a right-wing catchphrase which is roughly translated to 'fighting welfare dependency'; I guess a French equivalent of 'welfare queens'). This might seem very neoliberal and all, but Wauquiez's faction is defined as being moderate and in the tradition of social Gaullism (with its concern for social issues - in the French use of the term and less previleged people) and christian democracy; but at the same time his crusade against l'assistanat can help him win support on the right. Wauquiez probably hates Cope by now, but he does not owe Fillon anything and he has his own ambitions: 2017 (or 2022) and he is a rather capable politician, who can win a primary by tacking right but campaign in the centre.
Key backers included Brigitte Barèges, Caroline Cayeux, Dino Cinieri, Isabelle Debré or Pierre Morel-A-L'Huissier

France moderne et humaniste: predominantly Copeiste but otherwise centrist/liberal faction led by Jean-Pierre Raffarin (now with a very mavericky, centrist UDFiste reputation), Luc Chatel and Hervé Novelli (two prominent right-wing liberals). It wants to be, basically, the UDF faction for a party which is largely dominated by the former RPR; so an alliance of social Gaullists/christian dems/centrists/liberals/radicals. Despite this centrist platform, it is led by Copeistes - notably Raffarin, who hates Fillon largely because Fillon rarely hesitates to use Raffarin's disastrous PM term as an example of how the right sucked in the Chirac years. Chatel and Novelli are two prominent right-wing liberals; Novelli was the leader of "The Reformers" liberal club.
Key backers included Raffarin, Novelli, Chatel, Jean Leonetti (Filloniste, non-Borlooiste Radical), Marc-Philippe Daubresse (Copeiste), Michèle Tabarot (Copeiste), Marc Laffineur (Copeiste), Hervé Mariton, Franck Riester (Cope's tool) but also Dominique Bussereau, Christophe Béchu, Claude Goasguen, Sébastien Huyghe

Le Gaullisme, une voie d’avenir pour la France: obligatory Gaullist thing for people who think that Gaullism actually means anything in 2012. Main leaders include Michèle Alliot-Marie (chiraquien), Patrick Ollier (chiraquien, pro-Fillon), Henri Guaino (séguiniste eurosceptic, Copeiste), Roger Karoutchi (séguiniste, Copeiste).

Droite populaire: Most well known faction, it is the right-wing nationalist/socially conservative/anti-immigration/FN lite/quasi-nativist/reactionary faction which doesn't like brown people and Muslims and loves the flag, the wine, the white Christian French civilization and all that good stuff. Top leaders are Thierry Mariani and Lionnel Luca. Heavily Copeiste (though Jacques Myard backed Fillon iirc; and Claude Guéant who is unofficially droite pop did too); the Droite forte sapped it of much support and media access (medias just love these 'young' 'up n coming' politicians who are nothing but stupid mindless hacks or drones).

La Boîte à idées: vague motion without ideology besides some type of internal debate/democracy; it is also anti-Droite Forte. It did have many big backers: Benoist Apparu, Arnaud Danjean, Hervé Gaymard, Chantal Jouanno, Bruno Le Maire with support from Edouard Balladur, Xavier Bertrand and Alain Juppé. So it was a major flop.

Might have missed some details, didn't really read much into them (too much BS).

The mouvements results were


La Droite Forte - Génération France forte 2017 27.77 %

La Droite sociale avec Laurent Wauquiez 21.69 %

France Moderne et Humaniste 18.17 %

Le Gaullisme, voie d'avenir pour la France 12.31 %

La Droite Populaire 10.87 %

La Boîte à idées, la motion anti divisions! 9.19 %

It's not clear if they counted Mayotte and co votes here though!

Fillon will not accept the commission's findings.

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2012/11/23/francois-fillon-un-parti-politique-ce-n-est-pas-une-mafia_1794946_823448.html

What is far more important today is that Copé has refused some of Juppé's conditions for a conciliatory mission that the latter was OK to lead.
So, the fight will probably continue, but Fillon might be able to prove that Copé is the one who is a problem.
And, before November 30th (deadline for parliamentarians to say which party they belong to and, hence, which party will receive public financing), he might be able to split the parliamentarian groups and to be stronger than Copé's remnant UMP.
We'll see, the situation is very tense and very fluid, but clearly fascinating.
All is live, all is occurring on air, it's amazing !

I'll say one thing, this would make a cracking arthouse film in a few years time.

Yeah, the ceasefire doesn't seem to be accepted at all.

Only thing accepted so far finally, a meeting between Juppé, Fillon, and Copé, on Sunday, but nothing else so far.

6 days remaining...

That's where you're wrong, Monsieur Fillon.

Unsurprisingly, the motion I would have supported came last.

Anyways, I really hope Fillon has the guts to do what is needed and leave the party if Copé is resolved to steal the election. If the sane right doesn't react now, they are doomed to oblivion.

If he want to leave the party, he must do it before November, 30th (deadline for registration of MPs for repartition of public funding).

Fillon finally accepted the UMP appeal commission during the evening, which was the biggest issue so far, after the demand of Juppé.

But even then, it wouldn't necessarily mean they surrender, can as well be to prepare a better defense if they attack in Justice later.

And nothing says Copé stole the election, he seems quite sure of himself while Fillon camp arguments and behavior seem rather messy.

Words continue to be rather violent then, and the only planed thing still is this meeting on Sunday, 19h.

Personally, I tend to think more and more they can't do anything but split, it went too far, too violent, and even Juppé isn't a consensual figurehead, Fillon camp would love to see him being the new president but Copé's are more and more pissed about him and his attitude of wise guy who is over everybody, so if even Juppé can't be consensual anymore, what's left?

Sarkozy!

Yeah, I tend to think today it could be the only solution not to make UMP blast. It would indeed be quite early for a come back for him, and he wouldn't have planed that at all, but who knows, if after Sunday both camps can't go along, then everybody will begin to speak about split, and all those who don't want to split could call for Sarkozy, and he's been washed yesterday in Bettencourt affair, polls have been quite good for him since the beginning of Hollande's quinquennat, and if a lot of people call for him maybe he wouldn't take the risk to appear as the guy who abandon his political family.

And if Sarkozy can't do anything, by a come back into the political circus or only by a strong intervention to tell people to make up their mind, then I'd say UMP is over.

Split would happen between Sunday and Friday then. Copé camp keeping all the official stuffs of the UMP, and Fillon camp and all his MPs (about 100 apparently) and elected people would have to create a new entity. That would become the last thing still kinda embodying what's left of Gaullisme/RPR, and still kinda representing a bit of political density, sanity, and decensy, but really without any dynamism, and perspectives, while Copé camp would be far more excited and dynamic but would become a rather empty stuff mainly made of communication...

Both would become small forces, between UDI and FN/RMB, they are really totally screwing themselves, and in the same time they offer a totally pitiful show, regardless of how it could be tense to follow, and concur to give an as much pitiful image of politics...

In any case, unless someone like Sarkozy makes a strong come back in between, Municipales could be destructive, it could have already been the case before all this mess, but now...

Kudos to them!

Let's just see what they are able to manage...

Don't know if this actually matters but I made a map of the largest motions in each department:
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Red: La Droite Forte
Blue: La Droite Sociale
Green: France Moderne et Humaniste
Yellow: Le Gaullisme
Brown: La Droite Populare
Aqua: La Boîte à idées
Grey: Tie

"France Moderne et Humaniste" won Alpes-Maritimes? LOL. Must be some local baron, I guess.

I hope Fabien gives us an analysis of this as well, when things will be a bit more settled.

The results seem all over the place to me, which probably means a bunch of local factors at play. There were some areas where one motion would get 40% in one department and 10% in all the ones surrounding it. The funniest thing to me was that Le Gaullisme won 75% in Mayotte, the highest of any motion anywhere.

Yeah, intra-party maps in France are always messy and silly. Support from some local guy can give a 50 points boost, between actual votes and "little helps".

Vaucluse, however, doesn't surprise me at all. ;D

Jean Leonetti, the Filloniste non-Borlooiste Radical deputy/mayor of Antibes and Michèle Tabarot, Jeff's local nitwit (ex-DL, deputy/mayor of Le Cannet).

The PS' internal maps are similar, in some cases the gap between neighboring departments are even larger (the PS has more experience with internal fraud/vote rigging and criminal barons).

I'll make some maps, indeed. Let me some time. I'm deeply affected now... And, well, I have some familial problems that are quite similar to the UMP situation :P Though, for my family (not my real family, of course, no worry: my wife and my kids are always high and fine ;)), it will settle soon, as I will... resign and let all the mess...

Fillon should go too... Even i UMP rank and file will disagree, voters from the right, more largely, will support him.

BREAKING

AFP:

Juppé says the conditions for his mission are not present, he says his mission is over.

itélé says the commission is 'suspended'.

So Cope is still leader.

Copé on TV:

The UMP appeal commision has to do his joband say who is the president. Once done we could mix both teams for a new direction.

Nothing changed then.

He spoke from the town hall of Paris Vth, while the meeting with Juppé and Fillon took place in the Assemblée Nationale, which could mean that Copé lleft the Assemblée very fast.

They'll reconfirm him as leader. Now the question: will Fillon form a splinter party? Or too much of a Party Man for that?

Fillon and Juppé are apparently still discussing in the Assemblée, apparently Copé have also been kinda pissed by the fact that Juppé wasn't totally neutral, and all the love declaration of Fillon camp during those last days were not very discrete.

So yeah, meanwhile the UMP appeal commission official restarted its work right now. Ciotti had called Fillonistes to quit them during the day.

Oh and BREAKING!

Fillon attacks in Justice!

He says Copé is the only responsible for this.

UMP is over.

Now yeah, and that's why UMP would be over, unless a sudden totally out of nowhere come back of Sarkozy!

The doctor Juppé didn't save it.

Only a miracle could now...


Nah, it's the Right, not the Left. The Man is above the Party, not the opposite, as Zemmour very well pointed out recently it could very well be why the PS didn't blast in Reims...

Lionel Tardy, one of the main Filloniste MPs, on itélé:

La messe est dîte

Now it seems sure that we gonna create a new parliamentary group with the 134 other MPs supporting Fillon.

François Fillon would announce the official decision on Tuesday.

So yeah, Copé keeps the official UMP (well, what's left of it), and the split of the parliamentary group could be the 1st step to a new party, 'the last 'Gaulliste' breath'.

lol, Copé camp guys keeping saying, 'let's wait what the appeal will say!'...

For sure than Copé wants Filion to wait, the law uses the parlimentary affiliation on November 30 to decide of the public funding of the parties.

Which, presumably, is why not waiting a day longer is actually on the table as an option.

So Fillon is really leaving? And he's taking 2/3 of MPs with him? :o That's wonderful news if true.

Well, that's what Lionel Tardy said, Lamour seemed to confirm it on itélé after.

Apparently tomorrow would come the officialization of Fillon's attack in Justice (lol, Copé guys continue again and again to speak about the appeal!).

Tuesday would be the day of the offcialization of the political decision.

Important thing to know, apparently you have to already have a political party before making a parliamentary group, so, it would mean that...

Also, yesterday, on itélé, they were speaking about 154 MPs, let's see what will be said on Tuesday.

But they were also saying that, each MP represents 42.000 euros, per year, to the political party to which a parliamentary group belongs, so, it would mean that...

They were also saying that UMP is currently knowing quite big debts, notably because of the buying of their new Parisian HQ, Rue de Vaugirard, which makes a debt of 35 millions of euros on 14 years, and that the loss of all those Fillon MPs would be a lack of...6 millions of euros so, it would meant that...



()

...that those people might be in trouble!



That being said, so far, in term of dynamic, Copé looks more impressive and more like the guy who's right, at worst he looks kinda arrogant, while Fillon looks kinda like the bad looser, and they kinda embody past political trends, but the trends could also change quickly enough, and the old school look of Fillon might in the end be seen like reassuring, and who knows, with the attack in Justice, maybe Copé could have new troubles. That being said, the most likely tonight, is that they more or less all lost!

Good covers:

Le Figaro got it:

()

And indeed:

()

Good one of Apparu on Twitter tonight:

La Droite Morte

Pick the one you prefer:

()

()

()

And the 35 millions € one:


Amusing how, often, the most something wants to look impressive and sedducive, the most it would hide something bad...

I'd like to have Fab's insight on this.

...so the Sarokzy miracle will finally come??


While other papers focused on the clash that took place tonight, Le Parisien announces tonight that Fillon and Sarkozy will eat together tomorrow on midday.

During all the evening it looked like most of the strong historical Sarkozystes were siding Copé, and apparently Sarkozy was fine with a Copé win if you believe some journalists, and it went till that glorious Patrick Balkany tonight saying the charming:

Fillon doesn't only shoot a bullet in his foot by attacking in Justice, but also in his head.

Apparently it could be to try to convince not to attack in Justice. You never know what can happen but Fillon seems to be the stubborn guy not easy to handle, and who moreover could have been kinda pissed to be in Sarkozy shadow during 5 years, and now he has maybe the only occasion of his life to take a lead, and after this crazy violent week, Sarkozy would really need a miracle to convince him!

But you never know, it's been crazy during one week.

Would have been surprising he tries nothing anyhow, he would have effectively been seen as someone who abandons his political family...

So, new 'ultimatum', tomorrow, after the lunch...

(c'est vraiment n'importe quoi...)

Balkany talking about guns/shooting is kinda...

Ton avatar bleu est troublant, Antonio.
Cela te va bien, tu devrais essayer plus souvent ;D

Unless Jeff's allies all hate him now, that makes no sense because only 84 MPs and 71 Senators endorsed Fillon. And I doubt that every single one of them will be keen on leaving the UMP.

This article, by Laurent de Boissieu, who is the only journalist who knows what the hell he's talking about is interesting and people should read him instead of reading the overpaid idiots who do the other newspapers (he also understands how the financing stuff works, unlike everybody else):  http://www.ipolitique.fr/archive/2012/11/24/fillon-scission-ump.html

The mess continues...

Apparently the lunch with Sarkozy didn't change a lot, since later in the day Fillon began some judiciary steps and sent a bailiff (I'm discovering anew English word) to seize the documents of the appeal commission (before this commission gives its results!).

Copé camp asked a magistrate to oppose this, and the bailiff just left the UMP HQ, apparently he took nothing. The results of commission are said to come at worst in one hour. Fillon camp will announce their official judiciary decision after that. The political decisions are still planned for tomorrow.

Meanwhile everybody continue to go messy, some propose new vote (NKM, Estrosi), some one more new commission (Guéant), some that the new president don't run for primaries (Lemaire)Paillé (former UMP spokesman, left it for Borloo months ago) called Copé a Bokassa, the UMP treasurer, D. Dord, accuses Copé to have taken 200.000 € for his campaign, and so it goes in UMP, normal daily life of the post 21st November 2012 then...

Ah and, there is also the battle for Sarkozy now!

Both camps are claiming to have had 'a very warm discussion with Sarkozy'...

Anyhow, apparently, Fillon would attack.

More soon.

What are the chances of UMP being split, and new parties being formed?

And just for fun, what would you call them :) ;)

Very little actual chances, because of the public funding of parties' rules.

Anyway, if there was, I would call them RPR and UDF... ;)

And the winner is...........

(should I write it?? well, ok)

JEAN-FRANCOIS!!

...Copé

Official results from the appeal commission (called CONARE, sounding like 'connard', which means 'bastard', kudos to them for that):

Win by 952 votes
Nouvelle-Calédonie cancelled
1st office of Alpes-Maritimes cancelled

Fillon reaction to come soon.

Ah, so they made no effort to appear even remotely legit.

Of course Fillonistas rigged the Alpes-Maritimes, but if anybody thinks Jeff didn't steal any department, then I've got a beachfront property to sell you in Soweto.

Decisions will be taken tomorrow, would all belong to the number of MPs who will accept to join Fillon. You never know. Fillon has for him some good polls, a rather good image nationally, or at least a better image than Copé, a kinda statesman status and embodies the traditional Right, which can be reassuring.

Copé has for him, his dynamic populism trying to take the best possible winds, and took rather the far-right wind, a wind which is already taken by a very strong personality who is trying to be more and more consensual, MLP.

Both has 50% of militants (which is something), and each one built a tough camp, and a violent opposition happened between them during one week.

Beyond the number of MPs and the number of voters that each one can have, what''s interesting is what happened with all the figureheads of the party, it wasn't only Fillon and a bunch of big guys around him, both have about 50% of the big figureheads of the party that engaged themselves into this violent fight. In term of image it's hard to imagine a reconciliation within a few days, but yes, the most important because the most concrete would remain the number of MPs who will accept to jump over it, and yes, indeed money and elective infrastructure will be important, will they stay behind the 35 millions € indebted classical label...


...well that being said, it's more than this debt, it's a big machine, and it can also still be seen as the historical home of Sarkozy, in which a lot of people in the UMP would still hope for a come back for 2017, so you never know...

...or would they join the...MPR!

Yeah, I also couldn't help wondering about a name for a new party around Fillon, Mouvement Populaire Rébuplicain could be pretty fine, wouldn't it?? Mix of UMP and RPR.

But hey, last news, 40 MPs, apparently mainly Copé's, but also a few Fillon's, Douillet is in it, called for the unity of the party around the new official leader. As journalists say, legitimist tradition would also be an important cultural aspect in the Right amongst those who are not leaders.

Earlier, Copé made a very consensualist speech ofter the official results, indeed calling for the unity of the party and for the organization of a big dialogue within the party.

So let's just see!

Chartier, other big Filloniste MP, just gave the official reaction of Fillon camp, they indeed don't recognize the results of the 'CONARE', and they say 'they gonna use all mean to make respect the vote of militants', and Bussereau, UMP baron, is speaking right now on itélé about finding any mean to revote. It seems to be their tactic, attacking in Justice in the name of a new vote, but one more time they really are not clear.

Chartier confirmed they gonna take political decisions for the UMP group tomorrow.

May Friday comes the soonest possible so that all of this ends!

This will be a boiling night for UMP MPs...

BREAKING!

(well, sort of...)

AFP: Sarkozy says it would be preferable to vote again.

Voting again being the tag idea all Fillonistes are spreading in media tonight.

Sarkozy's word still kinda made of gold by everybody in the UMP so far, and overall by Copé and friends.

This stuff never let you quiet...

Aaaah, you can tell that I'm from a country without public funding of parties :)

Je savais que tu aprécierais mon geste de soutien. ;) Aujourd'hui, droite et gauche confondues, nous sommes tous Fillonistes ! :D

Apparently all of this happened during the lunch between Fillon and Sarkozy, in which Fillon would have been determined to attack in Justice, and Sarkozy apparently wants to avoid it at all costs, thus why he would have said that.

It was not a direct statement of Sarkozy to AFP, but this has been confirmed by Peltier, pro-Copé, leader of 'La Droite Forte', winning motion, tonight on itélé who got the same information from a close relative of Sarkozy. Peltier is now saying that, yeah, we could vote again, after several months...

Some other Copés say 'manipulation!', 'no way!'. Some say 'I don't know, I don't have an official information'. Some call for Sarkozy to make an official intervention.

Apparently using Justice was the good threat, they all want to avoid it at all cost, and a matter of time before Sarkozy statement, Fillon's lawyer made an offensive enough statement saying that they will at all cost have the truth. Going in Justice could, according to the developments that could occur take from a few days, to a few weeks, to one year.

Apparently several big Fillon MPs, Douillet, Accoyer, for those who spoke on TV, want to avoid at all cost the split of the parliamentary group too, and thus are pushing for a new vote too.

Some other big ones, Bussereau, Woerth, are hesitating.

And some other ones are still calling for it.

Regarding this question, the intermediary solution could be that they split the group but both stay in the UMP. That'd be messy to manage money though. 2 treasurers in the UMP?? The last treasurer, Dominique Dord, pro-Fillon, resigned today, accusing Copé to have used party's money for his campaign.

Frankly, so far, a new vote would seem the best solution if they don't want to shoot UMP and anyhow to avoid both Justice and a split. They create 3 commissions with people representing all camps:

1 electoral commission to organize the vote in the best possible conditions (because seems that Copé organization wasn't wonderful to say the least).

1 electoral commission to collect and give the results.

1 appeal commission.

A new vote takes place in about one month. And the guy who loses and all his camp totally surrender to the results. And there it goes it takes them one year to heal one week of violent injuries, and it remains a bit of an other year to try to not totally screw at next elections.

Otherwise, they would totally shoot themselves, either by Justice, and/or by a split, regardless it's a split of the parliamentary group or of the party, and/or the less quickly they find a way to heal the more the next elections could shoot them.

Or, one more time the...SARKOZY MIRACLE COMES...

But, no, apparently he doesn't want right now, though he has a great support (http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roland_Chassain) who launched a petition for him to come back!

Mr Roland Chassain, Mayor of Saintes-Maries-de-la-Mer, who has the brilliant title to be the 1st UMP candidate to let his place to a FN candidate against a Socialiste after the 1st round of the last Législatives, and also who defends death penalty against terrorists...

Oh and Sarkozy has an other big support...

It was about one month ago:

()

http://www.nicematin.com/monaco/un-azureen-fait-1-million-de-vues-sur-youtube-avec-sa-chanson-sarko-revient.1051343.html


Apparently I had enough time on my hands to translate it. ;D

Hope you enjoyed our new political star, it indeed became famous on TVs and stuffs...

There we are!

So is Sarkozy coming back?

Will he try? Probably. Will he succeed? Nope.

Fillon to announce the creation of a new parliamentary group called "Rassemblement-UMP" (very original), he promises to dissolve it if a re-run takes place.

It's the name of the UMP allied party in New Caledonia, I suppose than the group will be attached to that party. (A bit like the New Center was attached to the Fetia Api of Tahiti).

Do we know how many MPs are ready to jump the boat?

()

Not clear, I saw numbers between 50 and 120.

Amusingly, however, Pierre Frogier, who is the only R-UMP parliamentarian (senator) from NC backed Jeff, not Fillon.

At 15h they said 74, which makes 1/3 of the UMP group.

Sarkozy is apparently quite pissed about what's going on and asked Copé and Fillon to meet.

They just met in the Assemblée according to itélé.

Also interesting intervention of Anne Levade, interesting teacher of Constitutional Right, on itélé.

She said that attaching themselves to the Neo-Calédonienne entity wouldn't be totally neutral, by this way they would benefit of the 1st fraction of public funding the Néo-Calédonienne RUMP obtains.

I wasn't far by mixing RPR and UMP, but my MPR didn't have a 1st fraction of public funding...

AH!

UMP, always here to go more messy.

Copé is apparently surrendering a bit, and maybe it could be because of Sarkozy's pressure, he proposes...

(you guess what the wonderful solution is...........??)

A vote on the vote!

He proposes militants to vote whether they want a new vote or not. ^^

We don't have Fillon reaction though. His condition was a new vote within 3 months to stay within UMP.

More than ever...


Their point might just be to make the biggest tribute they could to...

Copé has effectively officially announced he proposed a referendum about a new vote.

He said it could take place on December or January. Several UMP spoke about something through Internet.

He said that, indeed, Fillon camp would be associated to the organization of this referendum.

Fillon camp is debating the idea, and according to what's going on in the meeting (lol, twitter's everywhere apparently) they would be inclined to accept this referendum but would also impose some conditions. Official reaction waited.

Apparently it's really Sarkozy who pushed for it, and the idea of the referendum would even be his, before his intervention Copé was still resisting, even after the announcement of the new parliamentary group, Copé kinda admitted it in his speech.

So a Sarkozy miracle might have effectively taken place...

Meanwhile the mess had begun to touch the Sénat...

Apparently Fillonistes are majority there, and since this morning you had Larcher, Filloniste, trying to agitate the UMP group in order to clearly side Fillon. The underlying thing of this would be a fight with Gaudin, Copéiste, chief of the group, for the leading of this group. A debate will take place tomorrow there.

In the Assemblée, the Filloniste group seems to effectively be made of 74 MPs, they would have even signed for the creation of this group according to itélé.

Last news, Fillon would be asking for an external organization to hold this referendum, by Internet, no proxies, and before the end of this year.

They're finding a way??

Seems so.

Copé would have previously asked Fillon to withdraw his group though, no informations about that, Fillon official reaction is still waited though.

Chartier gave the official reaction of Fillon camp, only about the group:

They're creating it. Fillon has been elected president of it, they gonna deposit the official status of it in the coming minutes...

But!

(lol...)

He said it is 'à titre conservatoire', it would mean that they could still withdraw it if a decision to directly hold the vote again happens. Which won't gonna happen.

He said they are still working on how to respond exactly to the proposal of referendum.

...and the final official number of MPs is...

...68.

(so far ;D...nah, apparently, that's totally official)

...but...you want one more turn??

Here's for you!

Very last news:

Copé is moving to the Assemblée to tell Fillon that it's either the referendum or the group, you can't have both.

Sarkozy?? Where's Sarkozy??

OST of this soap:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82BMXxdypWQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MqXnpcye7hQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4VK9_CfOLQ

Maybe more to come, feel free to complete it.

Battle of letters now!

Copé made an official letter in which he asks Fillon to make a choice between the group and the referendum.

Fillon also made an official letter (!), to tell Copé that they gonna freeze the money of their new group till a solution is found and before an eventual come back to the main group, he also accepts the referendum only there is a collective direction of the UMP till the vote, instead of Copé's, and effectively asks to be organized by an external organization, by Internet, without proxies, and before the end of the year.

Copé camp says they accept all those conditions...but!...not to let the lead of the direction of the UMP.

So, so far, it's Fillon blocking by his group and by his demand of collective direction...

It really turns ridiculous...

It's a total...


Very violent fight to only gain inches of ground, and in the end there both losing a lot of forces.

Popular opinion aren't fond of those kinds of fights generally, are they?

But hey, I just hear the big general would have spoken.

It's being reported that Sarkozy would have written something that he communicated to both camps, and this thing would be saying that if they didn't agree on the conditions of a referendum before 18h30, this communiqué could be published, and according to a close relative of Sarkozy who gave this information, what's in it would be...scary.

So let's see...

I laughed when I read that. I admit it.

And meanwhile the PS can quietly lead an other trench battle...


And FN enjoys bitching about how they are the only ones credible to be the 1st opponents now, Borloo making it in a more subtle style too...


I'm actually alternating phases of incredibility and desperate laugh...

Come to think about it, Copé has made 3 official winning declarations, and hasn't still officially won!

I wish this was getting more attention over here, it's much funnier/tragic than most British stories, and we've had a local council taking adopted children away from their foster parents on grounds of political party membership.....

RUMP, while a funny acronym in itself to an anglophone, is the most absurd name for a political group ever (when translated): The Rally for a Union for a Popular Movement.

The name is "Rassemblement-UMP", not "Rassemblement pour l'UMP". It literally means "Rally-UMP" and like it has been been noted, it is the name of the New Caledonian branch of the UMP which could provide the Fillonistes with access to public financing if they so choose. The party took that name in around 2002, prior to that it had been the RPCR (Rassemblement pour la Calédonie dans la République) and it retained the Rassemblement for some reason.

I'm still not sure why Fillon won New Caledonia. The local party has been split since it lost the legislative elections, but it appears that both faction leaders (Pierre Frogier and Gael Yanno) backed Jeff but now Frogier appears pissed that the Conare cancelled their results.

If there's a revote I'm fairly sure Fillon will win- and probably not by a recount margin either.

Copé wants to remain as party leader during the vote, which the Fillonistas will never accept (for good reason), so in the unlikely hypothesis that there was a revote and Jeff remained in charge, he would likely manage to rig the vote like he effectively rigged the first vote. This whole vote on the vote is a joke and a terribly retarded idea, the UMP is becoming a joke party very quickly.

Group declaration: http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2012/11/27/la-liste-des-parlementaires-ayant-rallie-le-groupe-rassemblement-ump_1796739_823448.html

68 members.

How else to avoid a splinter? No compromise choice as permanent leader waiting in the wings either.

Can someone make me a map showing Ump and Rump deputees' districts?

I suppose Flanby was due a bit of good news.

Yeah, I'll make one.

I agree with you on that, but you got to admit it's also somewhat of a tricky move for Fillon to dodge... It's the kind of shot that forces your opponent to really work on his passing-shot.

Of course, politically, Fillon cannot accept such nonsense. But in the opinion and the media, Copé succeeds in appearing a bit more compromising with this proposal, and effectively manages to throw the ball back in Fillon's camp, as the media and the opinion won't see this for what it is : bullsh**t.

8)

Here's the current map of parliamentary groups, with R-UMP included

()

to compare to the map of endorsements

()

Damn it.

This whole thing might have done its 1st casualty. 1 dead person.

Tonight, the managing editor of Le Monde, Erik Izraelewicz, died, heart attack.

(sorry, couldn't resist doing it...)

So, Sarkozy didn't publish his threatening communiqué. But well, journalists gave what would have been in it if you believe them, they say he would have officially said how he was totally ashamed by what was going on and that none of them were statesmen.

Situation is still blocked around Fillon conditions though:

Collective direction instead of Copé's
Maintain of his group so far

Tonight, Christian Jacob, leader of the UMP MP group was saying that he couldn't imagine Fillon maintains his group, because it would like the 1st step toward the split of the party, which is indeed relevant.

Maybe this night will help everybody, in case that's still possible...

In any case they have already both lost in the national public opinion, it's really pitiful, only Sarkozy can, in case that's still possible, save this 'thing' still called UMP...

Ah, and, a debate is slowly growing now.

After the Assemblée Nationale, then the Sénat, now this thing is touching the Conseil Constitutionnel...


The Conseil Constitutionnel is made, amongst other people, of all the former presidents still alive (I saw Giscard on TV yesterday, wow, he seems closer and closer to lose this job, you never know though, intellectually he seems still pretty fine, and lol, when you know how Chirac mind is going lately, what a glorious institution we have here!) but back to those the one of which the biology isn't so bad yet...


...and that we can mainly see this way or when he enters from a car to a house or the opposite, precisely because of the debate that is slowly growing...) and those former Présidents de la République have a duty of confidentiality over political affairs. And so there we go, Sarkozy is step by step being everywhere in this affair but can't make loud official declaration and avoid the media the most he can, which, lol, participates to make all of this still more totally unusual.

That being said, I remember that during last national political campaigns Giscard was regularly invited to give his opinion about what was going on, the limit might be to not take part in stuffs, but debates going on about where the limit would be...

Not sure this debate could go still bigger but that's one more aspect of this affair which would be far to represent only the crisis of the French Right...

Biggest French political party, Assemblée, Sénat, Conseil Constitutionnel...

What's next step?

Hollande govt to be split between pro-Copés and and pro-Fillons??

Hollande taking part for one, Ayrault for the other one??

Division of Europe over it??

Ban Ki Moon to intervene??

Obama??

Putin??

China??

Life on Mars??

Well, isn't France the center of anything anyhow?

Frankly it sometimes totally look like in an Astérix. Actually. THe point being that in Astérix it's pretty fun, it's a book, but here it's freaking real! Ah and indeed Copé totally looks like a Romain, and Fillon like a good old Gaulois, but both in some villain roles.

La Zizanie is one of my favorite Asterix albums. :D

Anyways, yeah, Copé has set up a perfect trap for Fillon. I really hope he does not give up an inch of his positions. Even if it's politically difficult to oppose Copé's shenanigans, it is absolutely necessary.

Wow, I had no idea VGE was still alive. I guess he's about the same era as Jimmy Carter, though.

Yup, they lost their job in the same year. :P

So, last news...

Several proposals of several persons continued today apparently, but, at one point, Copé had given an ultimatum to Fillon to withdraw his group, 15h.

At 15h, the group was indeed maintained, so Michèle Tabarot, n°3 of Copé direction officially intervened to say that, now this is over. Copé is president, he stops all negotiations and he gonna do what he has been elected for, his job of opponent. Period.

Referendum is over then.

Later, Tardy, one of the biggest Fillon MPs, reacted as if everything was normal, saying that they're still asking for a new vote about the presidency within the 3 months, and that their group will continue as long as this doesn't happen.

The itélé reporter said that lot of Fillon and Copé MPs were actively speaking together after Tabarot announcement though.

Earlier in the day, you had an other UMP 'group', the 'non-alignés', which is, lol, the same French name than...


That's a group that want to be neither Copé, nor Fillon, but they are 'unionist', want to keep the unity of the party, it's led by Bruno Le maire...

()

...and Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet...

()

...who are the biggest figureheads of the young guard of that still existing stuff, they can also be seen as the most constructive figureheads, in this whole mess, and politically too. Interesting to notice, they would be the less inclined people of the party to follow Copé populistic positions toward far-right, some of Sarkozy stances when he was president were already hard to swallow for them. Juppé is said as being part of them. It's kinda the 'centrists of the UMP'. Globally they'd be more Fillon than Copé politically I'd say. Lol, I'm hearing Apparu, part of this group, still calling for the glorious referendum right now...

What can be interesting is that this group is about 50 MPs.

So you have the 68-70 who are already behind Fillon and apparently to follow him till Nouvelle-Calédonie.

Those 50 MPs, who are neutral, and who would hardly be in line with Copé positions but who are still calling for unity. You can't know about the solidity of this group though.

And then it would make 77 MPs who can be definitely pro-Copés.

Earlier in the day, you had a vote in the UMP Sénat group, 112 UMP Sénateurs out of 120 have voted to follow Fillon line, and to ask for a new vote for the presidency.

As a journalist say seems we are in a:

BALKANIZATION!...of the UMP. They should beware before using this word, because having a Balkanic war in a party with Balkanys, dangerous.

There we are...

Totally blocked...

No Sarkozy intervention so far...

And let's try to see how people enjoy all of this:


The question is: 'Do you wish such or such plays a major role into politics?'

'Sympathisants UMP' is not UMP militants, it's wider than that, those who sympathize with UMP.

'Ensemble de Français' is all French.

What Fillon has been elected for, surely?

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Thanks Hash!
That east-west split of Champagne is funny. ;D

And look this so far discrete inflammable decision taken by Hollande govt today:

http://www.metrofrance.com/info/prix-de-l-essence-bercy-vigilant/mlkB!vgQM3VHh69OTg/

Some tax reductions on gas were planned to be over on Friday, there was a question about continuing reductions for people who have the less money, proposition abandoned, no more tax reductions.

Oh, and look, there is an other one that can be pretty controversial:

http://www.leparisien.fr/flash-actualite-politique/immigration-valls-publie-de-nouveaux-criteres-pour-regulariser-les-sans-papiers-28-11-2012-2362523.php

Valls publishes today the new future rules for immigration, thankfully better than Sarkozy's (of which some were pretty shameful) but tougher than what Hollande said during his campaign (and of which some can still be considered opened to criticism).

Not that a majority of French would be frustrated to have tighter rules on immigration than what was announced (which already was a kind of surrendering to nowadays populism regarding this), it would even rather be the opposite, but militant associations regarding those topics kind be pretty active and demonstrative, I guess it's better for the govt to avoid the most mess possible...

They should go fast if they have other controversial decisions to take! UMP mess seems to slowly go lower now!...(well...so far).


President of the RUMP. ;D

The Fillonistas said they would remain attached with the UMP for the second fraction of party financing earlier today, but that seems to have been before Jeff pulled the plug and told them to get get f-ed. I hope they break all bridges... if only because it'd be fun to see a Balkanized right.

They'll eventually break all bridges. It has gone too far.
And the attachment to a party is valid for only one year. So, in 2013...

It's 1917!


Yeah, some young unexperimented troops, but numerous and full of good will, the Non-Alignés, officially joined the fight.

This morning a communiqué of 139 MPs called for some new elections.

Those 139 are the now 71 R-UMP (according to the last news I heard), and the Non-Alignés, which would make 78 non-alignés, which would now make only 56 Copé MPs!

Fillon, like Clémenceau, decided to directly push his advantage further, announcing the creation of a working group of about 10 people madé of Copés, Fillons, and N-As, to work on the organization of future elections.

And, moreover, yesterday evening, you had 6 federations of Eastern France calling for the 'Elders Commission', something already present in UMP rules, to be constituted in order to also wonder to new elections, they said:

'30 people became crazy in Paris and are taking our party in hostage. We don't want Copé! We don't want Fillon! We want a united UMP!'

It makes...

139 out of 195 MPs
112 out of 131 Sénateurs
6 federations

...all calling for new elections.

And Sarkozy and Copé have lunche dtogether today, and I'm just hearing that, according to journalists both men could have agreed on a new vote!

Sane forces are taking over!

All of this would play in favor of Fillon, if a new vote actually occurs, it would be a 1st defeat for Copé. Moreover, maybe Fillon wouldn't even run again in a new vote, just like he said on his TF1's 20h, he said he was no more interested in UMP presidency but in making the truth and the justice win. While Copé always appeared as the guy who had the appearing legitimacy for him but also who wanted the job at all costs. Fillon could in the end appear like the tough warrior who only fought for the sake of his family, which would reinforce his presidential status for next presidential elections.

Meanwhile, it could very end be the N-As who would finish winners of a new vote, because that have been the only ones to always preach for unity above presidency, especially if Fillon doesn't run, and especially since Juppé is their biggest figurehead, the good old wise man, and moreover someone to which Fillon camp always said they would let the presidency.

Copé losing over Fillon-Juppé would also be Sarkozyste rupture losing over traditional Gaullisme-RPR, which would pretty much fit the mood of the country which chose Hollande, a rather quiet, reassuring, and saner political class, after the oddities of Royal-Sarkozy era...

If it's 1917, it would mean that 1918 is not far!

That being said, if Fillon acts too much like a Clémenceau, and that Copé finish in the end totally humiliated, they should beware not to create a 1933, or worse, latter, a 1939...


But whatever, today is a present day, maybe it was for the last figurehead of Gaullisme-RPR...

3 extra members for the RUMP: Valerie Boyer, Guy Teissier (both from Marseille and both pretty conservative) and Marcel Bonnot (Doubs, seems liberalish).

The "non-aligned" motion is a big smokescreen. As Laurent de Boissieu pointed out, besides the 33 'real' neutrals you have 12 soft or late fillonistes (Bertrand, Accoyer, Apparu, Douillet - plus amusingly 3 RUMP deputies who signed a text calling for the unity of AN group...) and 27 copeistes (Luca, Guaino, Le Fur, Balkany)...
ftr: http://nkm-blog.org/appel-a-lunite-de-notre-famille-politique/

I don't think Fillon really keeps a shot at the nomination in 2017 : he lost too much energy in this, and was a bit passive, he had to have his "troops" do a ot of the work, and French people just love their man of action, even if it means rigging elections and what not. I don't even know if he still would want  anymore, since I would think this whole thing might have disgusted him a little.

Don't hope too much about Juppé, he'llnot be running even if there was another vote, he's too old for this sh**t and has pretty much told that last week.

But it could be the perfect time for a "newcomer" (well, our beloved "quadras" who are often "quinquas"...) to steal the day. NKM has been a bit off with her calls, sometimes I just thought she was looking a bit childish. The one we haven't heard much about, who is very close to being the new "best among us", is... Le Maire. He's my favorite, since I once heard him a full hour on France Culture talking about philosophy, literature, culture etc. I never heard him say a "bigger than him bullsh**t" (maybe he has, though), but in any other scenario he would not stand a chance, as French people don't like politicians which they can well see are way smarter than them...

But in this scenario, who knows ?

Good to see Fillon is still holding on. I hope he will eventually find the courage to break all bridges and, along with the other sane people in his party, start something anew. It would be the best thing to happen to the French right in over a decade.

Many local conflicts have spilled over to the national scene:
Dati-Charon-Goasguen-Küster-Lecoq vs Goujon-Lamour-Lellouche-Debré-Legaret in Paris
Balkany-Sarkozy-Solère vs Guillet-Devedjian-Guéant in Hauts-de-Seine
Tabarot-Luca vs Ciotti-Estrosi in Alpes-Maritimes
Raffarin-Quentin vs Bussereau (a smooth one, though) in Poitou-Charentes
Gaudin-Deflesselles vs Boyer-Teissier in Bouches-du-Rhône
even Warsmann vs Poletti in Ardennes or Vautrin vs Robinet in Marne
not so sure about possible row between Cornut-Gentille and Baroin in Aube.

Pécresse is a bit alone in Yvelines.
And please note that Devedjian has seen his election cancelled: provided he is reelected (but I'm very pessimistic: many copesits will vote for the leftist candidate...), he'll follow Fillon.
On th eother hand, if Aboud regains the seat in Herault, he'll stick to Copé.
These by-elections will have a very special taste ;D : which factor will be more important: unpopularity of Hollande and Ayrault or disappointment with the UMP civil war ?
I still think Aboud can make it, but I'm very pessimistic about Devedjian.
Plagnol should be safe in Val-de-Marne (he is UDI and must be relieved to be so ;)).

Too bad we don't have a split in the Senate, because it would be fine to count every real fillonist.

So Guéant was aligned with Devedjian and Solère with Balkany? Color me surprised.

Well, Boulogne mayor sided with Filion, while Solère, his opponent and dissident was on Copé side.

Guéant was on Filion side and wants a revote. He refuses to go behind Copé as long he isn't the clear and legit winner.

...if you allow me to telescope 2 different parts of History. ;D

...less flattering for French here though.

So yeah, it's like a silence after (and before?) a battle today...

Yesterday evening you had Christian Jacob, leader of the UMP MP group, not only pro-Copé but quite close of Copé who said he was ready to work with Fillon working group on new elections, to which you can add Sarkozy who apparently pushed Copé to go for new elections, this plus the fact that N-As group would include some Sarkozystes who showed as Copé so far (Balkany!), more than ever, Copé is alone today, and shows as the guy entrenched in his castle, Rue de Vaugirard, 2 days ago, when he said all negotiations were over he already began to try to make a lot of criticisms on Hollande, now he is totally invisible...

Today, a pro-Fillon, Joyandet, even said Copé could eventually keep the presidency till a new vote, Joyandet might as well only represent his opinion, but it would show that Copé is considered as less and less important...

Regularly, each time a new vote is evoked, the time limit which is evoked is one year.

Nothing is decided though so far, Rethondes is not already here, and while Copé hasn't yet surrendered, close relatives of him said he wanted to hear nothing about a new vote yesterday evening, Sainte-Héléne seems closer and closer for him...

Our true Napoléon though...


...has played pretty well so far, and it's amusing to see his troops moving here and there with the evolution of the conflict...

I still think the N-As/Juppé could finish winners of this on the short term, and I've been surprised how high Fillon succeeds to stay quite high in UMP sympathizers polls, but it would effectively fit nowadays' mood in France, to go toward a more classical political class, but how it could turn in 5 years could be quite different, and the true Napoléon isn't in Sainte-Héléne yet, only in...


The next elections, Municipales 1st, that could have already been quite good for the new FN before all this could be still better for them now (anything better than 1995 would be seen as a victory for MLP, I remember in 1995, for town halls, 3 small cities and a big one, and he was like 'FN won elections!!', was kinda something, and MLP seems to be able to do better than her father at any level...), notably through the alliances they could try to set in order to screw still more UMP coherence and solidity, especially if this becomes led by centrists of the party in between...

Européennes then, in which both, the new FN 1st, especially if Euro Zone doesn't seem to be safe and/or the classical political class tries to go toward further European integration, which seems to be what is more or less planned, UMP or PS, and one more time still more if UMP is led by N-As/Juppé direction, extremist electorates use not to care about those elections but if the European context is special, you never know, and the UDI then, which outside of a lack of coherence and solidity in the UMP could also benefit of the disappearing of Europe Ecologie, to become the big centrist force of this election, of which the usual electorate is the centrist one, the both could make big enough scores, and maybe the both bigger ones than UMP, because both of have clear lines, and with a more and more controversial topic like Europe people might prefer clear positions

We'll see though, 2 years are long, especially nowadays where crazy stuffs can happen every once in a while...

That being said, maybe Régionales-Départementales 2015 could eventually be favorable for what the classical right would have become in between (if it still exists! ^^), we don't even know what kind of scrutiny it will be since the last reform has been canceled a few days ago, but wow, if MLP does better than her father it would mean it would be more messy than 1998! Would also be something if so, was messy, and the PS might eventually play with that with the scrutiny they gonna choose. But then we speak about something coming in 3 years, becomes unreasonable...

In all cases, not really good perspectives for UMP so far on the longer term...

Anyways today is silencious, even the 24h media began to become bored with that, and all the UMP figureheads are hiding and discussing behind the scene, maybe it took them 10-12 days to understand the pitiful show they were giving.

24h media, and I guess classical media will follow, also found a new bone back an old bone with still a bit of meat on it (which isn't easy since it's the been the most covered stuff ever worldwide! more than 9/11...), but still, it remains bit of meat on that...


Hollande really gets lucky nowadays...

Ah, and very last hot news, Sarkozy would have strongly intervened, again, to tell both men that now they have to find a solution, the new vote still seems to be the only proposal, both camps seems to more and more find ways...

It is said an encounter could happen between Copé and Fillon on Monday, and in between both camps could eventually hold a political meeting each, Tuesday would be a kind of ultimatum date, this is when the R-UMP would have to officially sit and overall ask its own questions or not, this is when the symbolic rupture will happen, or not.

So far I'd say it goes toward a new vote.

It would have been fancy to have a national Néo-Calédonien political party though...


And then if Nouvelle-Calédonie would have broken up in 2014 we could have had a total secession of the UMP! Fillon running for presidency of Nouvelle-Calédonie! Raising an army! Coming back to France to oust Copé! One more Napoléon! And maybe one more Waterloo then too...And in the end, who wins? Anglos!

Bloody French Right, so Napoleonian, the N-As winning would be a good thing...

Poor Copé though...


Each time I think about it, it makes me laugh, 3 official victory declarations and could lose in the end!

The Fillonistas published this... interesting... picture:

()

Can you explain the relevance for us? Haven't been following this closely.

The relevance? Copé is a disgusting asshole and he wants the job so much that he's ready to do anything to avoid a fair vote, including causing his own party to explode. Now the question is whether Fillon and the other UMPers who aren't soulless careerists will have the balls to break with Copé's thugs and start a new party.

Sorry, should've been more clear: I meant in the photo posted. I don't understand who is circled and why. I understand the rest, or at least understand the basics you helpfully described. 

Oh, sorry.

The guys circled are the president and a member of the intra-party commission in charge of certifying the election results. The picture was presumably taken at a Copé rally.

The rally in which he declared his candidacy.
So, Paternotte was a supporter of Copé FROM THE BEGINNING...

An fascinating drama. Your picture reminds me that until the scandal, I thought DSK was a woman.

There will be a revote in September 2013.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2012/12/16/01002-20121216ARTFIG00138-ump-cope-pret-a-un-nouveau-vote-en-septembre-2013.php

In 9 months? Fillon must be an idiot to accept this.

Please, please, please tell me Copé didn't ultimately manage to screw him. :( :( :(

They're still negotiating over who leads the party for now... and I assume that the anger over what happened translates to a Fillon victory.

Not sure, and I think he doesn't even want to run again. All he wants is making sure Copé doesn't get away with his dirty tricks. Hopefully some consensus candidate can defeat Copé in 2013, but by that time, the old bonapartist spirit of the French right will probably have prevailed... :(

Who wins probably depends on who controls the party machine by September. If Copé's stooges control the party and the COCOE/CONARE as they currently do, then I have as much faith in this being a fair election as I do in Chechnya having a fair election.


Somebody read my big post or something?! :P

I haven't actually. :( Been so damn busy these past few days, and now still mostly unable to do anything worthwhile due to sleep irregularities... Give me a few days to recover. ;)